Re: Tema: PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Primavera 2023

[cujo]

Las pierde Barcelona y Bilbao ... claro .. luego miras los números y no.
El relato , ay! El relato.

[Asdrúbal el Bello]

Las pierde Barcelona y Bilbao ... claro .. luego miras los números y no.
El relato , ay! El relato.

El gran misterio. Tras 300 años de inmisericorde y brutal dominación colonial española, Cataluña se han convertido en uno de los territorios más ricos, prósperos, desarrollados, vibrantes y autogobernados de Europa occidental. No del sudeste asiático o del Caribe:
DE EUROPA OCCIDENTAL

Barcelona es España.

Y por cierto, si piensa que Bilbao ha perdido alguna guerra civil en España es que no ha entendido nada de la historia de España.

[pollo]

Ya han dejado caer la bomba de que los tipos no bajarán al menos hasta el año que viene, con lo que se cortan de cuajo las expectativas de bajada a finales del verano o demás cuentos de la lechera que solemos ver en la prensa.

Espero que alguien les diga que lo más seguro es que sigan así, que están a un nivel normal y la anomalía era el interés cero o negativo. Hasta que caiga el ladrillo.

[cujo]

De buena mñn no había pillado la ironía Asdrúbal

[saturno]

Al final resulta que el acuerdo del castillo de Eu sigue funcionando.

¡Links!

(Gracias)

[Cadavre Exquis]

Xi Tells Gates China Is Willing To Engage in Tech Cooperation
Posted by msmash on Friday June 16, 2023 @10:02AM from the how-about-that dept.

President Xi Jinping said China is willing to work with the world on technology innovation and global challenges including pandemic prevention during a meeting with American billionaire Bill Gates. From a report:

"You are the first American friend I've met in Beijing this year," Xi told the Microsoft co-founder on Friday, according to state broadcaster China Central Television. "I've always said that the foundation of China-US ties lies among the people," the Chinese leader added. "We always pin our hopes on American people and hope the two peoples can continue to be friendly." China's top diplomat Wang Yi and Foreign Secretary Qin Gang attended the meeting. Xi's sit down with Gates raises expectations for the Chinese leader to meet with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken who is set to visit Beijing on a two-day trip from Sunday. That rescheduled visit aims to reset ties between the world's largest economies, after a spat over an alleged Chinese spy balloon derailed high-level exchanges earlier this year.

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

Hotel Owners Start To Write Off San Francisco as Business Nosedives
Posted by msmash on Wednesday June 14, 2023 @11:20AM from the closer-look dept.

San Francisco's once thriving hotel market is suffering its worst stretch in at least 15 years, pummeled by the same forces that have emptied out the city's office towers and closed many retail stores. From a report:

Hotel owners in New York and Los Angeles are filling nearly as many rooms this year as they did in 2019, according to hotel-data firm STR. Their revenue per available room exceeds what it was before the pandemic. But in San Francisco, hotels are still struggling badly in both occupancy and room rates compared with before the pandemic. Revenue per available room was nearly 23% lower in April compared with the same month in 2019. The city's lodging business has been squeezed by crime and other quality-of-life issues that have kept many convention bookers away. Tech companies' embrace of remote work also undercuts business travel to the city and hotel activity.

Now, a growing number of San Francisco hoteliers are signaling they may be ready to give up. In recent months, the owner of the city's Huntington Hotel sold the property after facing foreclosure and the Yotel San Francisco hotel sold in a foreclosure auction. Club Quarters San Francisco, which has been in default on its loan since 2020, may also be headed to foreclosure, according to data company Trepp. Other lodging properties in the city are also vulnerable. More than 20 additional San Francisco hotels are facing loans due in the next two years, according to data company CoStar. In San Francisco's biggest potential hotel default yet, Park Hotels & Resorts last week said it has stopped making loan payments on debt secured by the Hilton San Francisco Union Square and Parc 55 San Francisco. The two hotels, with nearly 3,000 rooms between them, are in the heart of San Francisco's shopping and cultural district.

Saludos.

[Lem]

https://www.ftadviser.com/buy-to-let/2023/06/16/the-band-has-stopped-playing-for-uk-landlords

‘The band has stopped playing’ for UK landlords

Mortgage brokers have reported a drought of new buy-to-let business as the reality of rising interest rates hits landlords en masse.

Many buy-to-let investors are now confronted with the choice of increasing rents or selling up, as the average buy-to-let fixed-mortgage rate edges further above 6 per cent.

For months, brokers have been reporting a die off of new buy-to-let enquiries, and many had previously warned that more trouble was brewing as a result of stringent stress-testing by lenders.

I’ve been a mortgage broker for years and I’ve never seen the market like this
Zara Yeganeh, KeyRate

The situation has deteriorated further in recent weeks with lenders continuing to hike rates and further tighten stress-testing.

Earlier this week, NatWest, one of the UK’s largest mortgage lenders, increased the stress test on its two-year fixed-rate buy-to-let mortgage from 6.7 per cent to 8.10 per cent and upped it from 6 per cent to 6.89 per cent on its five-year fixed product.

What is a stress test?

A stress test is applied to a mortgage borrower’s application to check the borrower’s ability to repay their mortgage at a given interest rate, even if the actual current rate is lower.

When measuring affordability for buy-to-let mortgages, lenders will also require a ‘buffer’ in rental income, usually at 125 or 145 per cent.

This is done to ensure a borrower has enough surplus income from the property to pay for repairs, non-payment of rent and other eventualities like service charges.

“I’ve been a mortgage broker for years and I’ve never seen the market like this,” self-employed broker, Zara Yeganeh told FTAdviser.

Yeganeh explained that over the last two weeks, the monthly payments on every buy-to-let case she completed have at least doubled.

In Yeganeh’s view, the combination of difficulties present in the buy-to-let sector - high rates, taxation issues, inconsistent valuations, affordability problems - are all about to coalesce and “crash the market”.

Yesterday, a report from the Intermediary Mortgage Lenders Association flagged similar issues, with the trade body being highly critical of the impact proposed legislative changes may have on the sector.

While many specialist buy-to-let lenders have now returned to the market this week, the arrangement fees have all increased and Yeganeh pointed out that while she is still getting some new enquiries from potential buy-to-let investors, they are only coming from people with hefty deposits.

The buy-to-let mortgage market is currently so uncompetitive that Yeganeh said all of her portfolio landlords coming off their fixed rates have had no choice but to do a product transfer with their existing lenders.

We have spoken with five this week who are planning to offload some or all of their portfolio
Martin Stewart, London Money

Similar to Yeganeh, mortgage brokerage London Money has analysed all of its buy-to-let remortgages since the beginning of the year and on average each has seen a 102 per cent increase in the monthly mortgage payment.

“This has led to a number of landlords now choosing to exit the market and we have spoken with five this week who are planning to offload some or all of their portfolio,” London Money’s founder Martin Stewart told FTAdviser.

“These properties are held in their individual names and so we may now see the market polarise between those who tickled with the sector and those who incorporated their portfolio and view it as a long term play.

“The latter are likely to stay in the market, certainly for the time being although every buy-to-let has a tipping point,” Stewart said.

He added: “The risk to those exiting the market now is obvious, the lifeboats are filling up fast and the band have stopped playing.”

Jiten Varsani, a mortgage adviser at London Money said for investors with big deposits, the sector is still profitable but it is the higher leveraged landlord’s who are seeing the biggest challenges.

“Particularly where rental income is not proportionately achievable,” Varsani explained.

Varsani provided two examples of recent remortgages, both by landlords in North West London.

In both cases the interest rate has shot up by more than 3 per cent.

Landlord 1:

Loan: £279,125

LTV: 47.08 per cent

Basis: Interest Only

Current Payment: £360.03 per month (pm) (Fixed-rate: 1.55 per cent)

New Payment: £1,102.54pm (Fixed-rate: 4.74 per cent)

Rental Income: £2,300pm


Landlord 2:

Loan: £568,191

LTV: 61.7 per cent

Basis: Interest Only

Current Payment: £946.22pm (2.0 per cent)

New Payment: £2,423.10pm (5.1 per cent)

Rental Income: £2,600pm


“Taking into account agent fees, accounting fees, repairs, rental voids, personal income etc., there will need to be some serious consideration given to whether or not these will be feasible going forward,” Varsani said.

Things can only get..worse?

Looking ahead, many more buy-to-let landlords are about to face a crunch this year, which in turn will pile the pressure on their tenants.

According to data from UK Finance, there are currently 2mn buy-to-let mortgages outstanding across the UK with around 1.3mn of these on fixed rates.

Of these, around 230,000 fixed deals are due to expire between March 2023 and March 2024 meaning that many renters are exposed to potentially significant rental hikes in the coming year.

Some brokers have noted a shift away from longer-term property letting to short-term holiday lets in response to the constrained profit margins.

We have definitely seen a decrease in new buy-to-let enquiries for both remortgage and new purchase. However, interestingly we have seen an increase in holiday let and Airbnb enquiries in recent months,” Louis Mason, communications manager for brokerage Oportfolio told FTAdviser.

Mason said this is likely due to the increase in income that can be achieved by letting properties out on a daily or weekly basis compared to long-term lets and noted the difficulties traditional buy-to-let investors are currently facing.

“The increase in people wanting to holiday in the UK rather than abroad to save money during the economic crisis is undoubtedly a reason why Airbnb and holiday let are becoming more prominent,” Mason said.

“We have had a client recently who was looking to remortgage one of his buy-to-let properties. He had previously come to us earlier in the year and we assessed his maximum loan at £300,000 with TMW.

“He was just enquiring at the time, so we didn’t proceed with anything. He came back to us recently wanting to proceed with TMW. Due to new changes to rental income stress tests and general affordability test his maximum mortgage came back at £160,000.

“Thankfully, we have found another lender for him who can provide him with the level of mortgage that he needs, but his payments have now gone up by a minimum of £200 a month,” Mason said.

He added: “It’s a tough market for landlords now, and it is a real skill to be able to get a mortgage deal that not only makes financial sense for them as an investor but will also ensure that their loyal tenants aren’t being overcharged and lost.”

[Maloserá]

https://www.ftadviser.com/buy-to-let/2023/06/16/the-band-has-stopped-playing-for-uk-landlords

El único comentario a la noticia tampoco tiene desperdicio.

'So, Government policy ( first espoused as long ago as George Osbourne, who changed the legislation ) now sees Landlords selling up. Whilst this may free up properties for potential purchase, with mortgage criteria stringency being what it is, those properties will remain empty as would-be buyers fail miserably to make the grade, particularly on affordability.

Those empty properties will then see tenants out on the street in search of alternative accommodation that may no longer exist or be out of their reach anyway.

So do we put these tenants now into hotels ? Government is spending millions daily on recent arrivals ( call those people what you will and this is not a political point at all, just an observation ) whilst we cannot house UK residents who simply can't get a mortgage to buy their own place. Local authority waiting lists are halfway to the moon and in any event you don't suddenly ''magic up'' sufficient properties. In all my 36 years in this job, never did I think I'd see a Tory Government so anti-Landlord and devoid of any idea as to what can be done to solve this crisis which deepened by the day.

Of course, the many MPs who are themselves Landlords, seem unfazed however and little wonder why- the realities of everyday financial problems hardly touches them, such is the fat on the animal....with a package like they have, there's no worry, no concern and certainly no apparent appetite to put things right. The same goes for the government in Cardiff, although I cannot speak for Scotland or NI. For goodness sake, someone in the house, even many of you, give the bars and brasseries a miss this weekend and sit down and seriously face up to this situation and get into some deep and serious thought for a change.'

[Benzino Napaloni]

Ya han dejado caer la bomba de que los tipos no bajarán al menos hasta el año que viene, con lo que se cortan de cuajo las expectativas de bajada a finales del verano o demás cuentos de la lechera que solemos ver en la prensa.

Espero que alguien les diga que lo más seguro es que sigan así, que están a un nivel normal y la anomalía era el interés cero o negativo. Hasta que caiga el ladrillo.

Pero si Lagarde lleva con el latiguillo de controlar la inflación desde que empezó a subir tipos. ¿Qué esperaban? ¿Quieren seguir jugando hasta que salga el as?

Da igual que les digan que, cierto, la banca no está por los Landlords ni por los hipotecados. Está por el sistema entero, y hace tiempo que hubo que elegir entre quimioterapia o entierro. No lo ven, sin más.

Van a estar berreando hasta que se les acabe el aire, y el dinero del colchón.

[Maloserá]

....
Da igual que les digan que, cierto, la banca no está por los Landlords ni por los hipotecados. Está por el sistema entero, y hace tiempo que hubo que elegir entre quimioterapia o entierro. No lo ven, sin más.
...

Lo de la banca, de aumentar al 40% el límite de deuda sobre renta antes de pasar a ser 'riesgo' - una página atrás, en El Economista - parece más morfina que quimioterapia.

[Asdrúbal el Bello]

Al final resulta que el acuerdo del castillo de Eu sigue funcionando.

¡Links!

(Gracias)

https://www.boe.es/biblioteca_juridica/abrir_pdf.php?id=PUB-DH-2021-191


El papel de las grandes potencias en España desde las guerras napoleónicas es decisivo. En 1833, en 1844, en 1870-73, en 1917, en 1936, en 1974, en 2004, en 2017... y seguimos. Quizás la salida sea entregarnos sin más a la protección de Washington, y dejarnos de pamemas.

[Lem]

https://archive.is/fLoKl

Poland Backs Debut Homebuyers as Mortgage Gloom Stifles Demand

Poland’s government approved a plan for mortgage subsidies aimed to revive the country’s ailing housing market ahead of a general election slated for the fall.

The regulations, expected to take effect in July, will let first-time homebuyers keep annual interest on their mortgages at 2% for the first 10 years of the loan’s life. That compares with the current market rate of over 9% as Poland raised its key rate to 6.75% from near zero in 2021 to battle runaway inflation.

Lack of access to affordable housing has become a political topic as sales of new mortgages halved in 2022, while home builders halted new projects. The largest opposition party Civic Platform party called for interest-free home loans, also subsidized by the state.

The cost of subsidies under the government program is seen at 11.3 billion zloty ($2.6 billion) cumulatively over the next 10 years. The draft bill needs to be approved by parliament and signed by the president.

but don't despair  , esto se puede mejorar:

https://notesfrompoland.com/2023/02/28/housing-is-a-right-not-a-commodity-polish-opposition-proposes-interest-free-mortgages/

“Housing is a right, not a commodity”: Polish opposition proposes interest-free mortgages

Poland’s largest opposition party, the centrist Civic Platform (PO), has announced plans to offer interest-free mortgages for under-45s buying their first home as well as state subsidies towards those renting if it wins power at this autumn’s elections.

“We will be proposing policies that will actually make housing a right, not a commodity,” said PO leader Donald Tusk, using a slogan that has also been adopted by The Left (Lewica), the second-largest opposition group, as well as the national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) government.

[...]

[Derby]

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20230617/9048371/elecciones-municipales-pactos-alcaldias-barcelona-hoy-en-directo.html

Jaume Collboni, nuevo alcalde de Barcelona

El candidato del PSC Jaume Collboni se convierte en alcalde de Barcelona tras recibir más votos que Xavier Trias. El socialista ha estado avalado por los votos de Barcelona en Comú y el PP, mientras Trias ha estado apoyado solamente por ERC.

Jaume Collboni: 23 votos
Xavier Trias: 16 votos
Gonzalo de Oro (Vox): 2 votos
En blanco: 0 votos
17:37

[Benzino Napaloni]

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20230617/9048371/elecciones-municipales-pactos-alcaldias-barcelona-hoy-en-directo.html

Jaume Collboni, nuevo alcalde de Barcelona

El candidato del PSC Jaume Collboni se convierte en alcalde de Barcelona tras recibir más votos que Xavier Trias. El socialista ha estado avalado por los votos de Barcelona en Comú y el PP, mientras Trias ha estado apoyado solamente por ERC.

Jaume Collboni: 23 votos
Xavier Trias: 16 votos
Gonzalo de Oro (Vox): 2 votos
En blanco: 0 votos
17:37

Dios

Cómo lo ha tenido que ver Sirera... Supongo que el pacto Trías / Maragall ha pesado demasiado. El PP sólo podía elegir el sapo menos amargo, está claro.