Tema: PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos Otoño 2017

[R.G.C.I.M.]

Confieso que me estoy perdiendo...



Ya ni siquiera sé whats ur point.

Sds.

[newclo]

Toma MigueFuen, este artículo igual ayuda a acercar posturas, que es de los que te molan:

http://www.hoy.es/sociedad/queda-quiebra-total-20171119002415-ntvo.html

Hoy Domingo contraportada de muchos diarios

[puede ser]

https://www.elconfidencial.com/comunicacion/2017-11-19/discurso-amber-joseph-oughourlian-prisa-cebrian_1479610/

Vean el vídeo del principal accionista de Prisa poniendo a Cebrián a caer de un burro a la cara.
Si no saliera Cebrián en el vídeo creería que es un fake. Un tipo que habla español a veces dubitativo le dice: "su gestión no ha sido nefasta sino..., lo siguiente", "lo importante es que esta casa esté capitalizada"...

[pyn]

Parece que somos muchos lo que 10 años después (alguno incluso más) seguimos viendo algo "anormal" ahí fuera. En mi caso personal, en estos 10 años me ha dado para mucho, pero sobretodo para tener clara una cosa, esto no ha hecho más que empezar.

[tomasjos]

Toma MigueFuen, este artículo igual ayuda a acercar posturas, que es de los que te molan:

http://www.hoy.es/sociedad/queda-quiebra-total-20171119002415-ntvo.html

Hoy Domingo contraportada de muchos diarios

Me van a perdonar, pero ese artículo es un delirio. Pisemos tierra firme, por favor. (Nobleza negra, güelfos, etc   )

[newclo]

Imagina la cara que se me ha quedado al comprar el periódico.
Contraportada de un Domingo.

Y luego entro aquí y me encuentro una discusión surrealista con origen en fuentes similares 

[Miguefuen]

Toma MigueFuen, este artículo igual ayuda a acercar posturas, que es de los que te molan:

http://www.hoy.es/sociedad/queda-quiebra-total-20171119002415-ntvo.html

Hoy Domingo contraportada de muchos diarios

JAJAJA

[mpt]

.....  esto no ha hecho más que empezar.

y no va a ser facil mantener un minimo de cordura en el proceso de ir a menos

http://www.homovelamine.com/crimen-testosterona-fracaso/

[visillófilas pepitófagas]

INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL REPORTING STANDARD Nº 9, MUY EN MARCHA.-

El avance es imparable. Se oyen cerca los tambores. La batalla comenzará el 01/01/2018. Y, como no puede ser de otra manera, ganará el sistema capitalista, con su Era Cero; y el Capitalismo Popular, aislado en el destierro, tomará el arsénico de una banca desenladrillada:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gsV4O7ibYCs
(Beethoven; 'Wellington's Victory or the Battle of Vitoria', Op.91; nótese la variación del tema 'Mambrú —Marlborough— se fue a la guerra', que simboliza a Francia, mientras el 'Rule Britannia', a Inglaterra.)
(https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batalla_de_Vitoria )

Recordemos:
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/getDoc.do?pubRef=-%2f%2fEP%2f%2fNONSGML%2bREPORT%2bA8-2017-0255%2b0%2bDOC%2bPDF%2bV0%2f%2fEs

Última noticia de verdad —nada de 'italianadas'—:
http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2017/11/15/banking-creditor-hierarchy-ifrs-9large-exposures-rules-approved/

Lo importante de la intervención de Draghi de esta semana, en el Congreso de banca europea, en Fráncfort, es la frase:
- «Cualquier marcha atrás en la regulación financiera sería un error».

Dicho y hecho.

Será en 2018.

«Comprad, comprad, que se acaban», je, je.

«¡Rule Zero Era! Zero Era rules the waves. 'Trabajo & Empresa' never will be slaves»:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rB5Nbp_gmgQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E53mX2SwsG4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7DtPOaPokUI

Gracias por leernos.

P.S.: Las barbas del brexit a remojar, tras ver las butifarras pesetero-casposas cortar. Y lo mismo podemos decir del trumpismo, el inminente día de la Bestia-S&P500.

Publicado por: pisitófilos creditófagos | 11/19/2017 en 02:26 p.m.

http://blogs.cincodias.com/el-puente/2017/11/la-vida-es-un-carnaval.html#comments

[Cadavre Exquis]

Parece que no en todos sitios está previsto que las casas duren 99 años...

https://twitter.com/BenedictEvans/status/931977675706474496

Is Tokyo’s property market reaching its peak?

After steady growth, house prices dipped 1.08 per cent in August

Residential land prices have been rising in Tokyo since December 2012 with a knock-on effect on house prices © Getty

NOVEMBER 17, 2017 Hannah Roberts
The tale of Hachiko, an Akita dog, who greeted his owner after work at Tokyo’s Shibuya station every day, is a Japanese version of Greyfriars Bobby. After his master’s death in 1925, Hachiko waited outside the station until his own death 10 years later, epitomising the revered Japanese qualities of loyalty and obedience.

A statue of Hachiko remains a popular meeting spot in Shibuya, but the once collectivist Japanese culture has gradually become less reverent of tradition and more individualistic, helping to shape a fast-moving housing market. With young Japanese marrying later, or forgoing marriage, the average household size in Tokyo’s 23 wards has fallen from 2.13 in 2000 to 1.93 as of the end of 2016, according to a Savills report. Single-person households in Greater Tokyo have risen from 41 per cent in 2000 to 47 per cent in 2015, according to government analysis, driving demand and creating opportunities for investors.

Residential land prices have been rising in Tokyo since December 2012 with a knock-on effect on house prices. Shibuya, where the population has grown by 14 per cent in 15 years, is undergoing rapid change. Land prices there increased 35-40 per cent between January 2013 and January 2017, according to the local authority. Historically a neighbourhood known for entertainment and nightlife, Shibuya has, since the 1990s, become ground zero to Japan’s tech start-up community, earning it the nickname “Bit Valley”. The area, one of the world’s busiest transport hubs, is undergoing a 2.6 hectare urban regeneration project, “the biggest facelift in 20 years”, according to Chris Mancini of Savills. Well-connected on the Yamanote Loop line train, it has a mixture of affordable and high-end houses with 1,700 new units planned for completion over the next decade.

We thought the market was going to collapse
Sonny Saito, chief executive of Japan Capital Realty

Since Prime Minister Shinzo Abe came to power in 2012, his policies of low interest rates and devaluation of the yen through quantitative easing have fuelled sales in Japan. The yen is relatively cheap, compared with its historic value against Asian currencies and against the US dollar, says Sonny Saito, chief executive of Japan Capital Realty, an affiliate of Christie’s International Real Estate, making Japan attractive to international investors. The price of new condominiums in Japan’s cities in August 2017 was 36 per cent higher than in 2012.

Street food on offer at Omoide Yokocho © Sebastien Lebegue/ANA

Girls in fancy dress in Shibuya © James Delano/Redux/Eyevine

The Tokyo 2020 Olympics is also enticing foreign investment, mostly from Southeast Asia, according to Mancini. “Tokyo gets a bad rap for being expensive,” he says, “but it’s cheap compared to other global cities like London and Hong Kong.” Here a mid-market apartment in the central five wards is $15,000 per sq metre; in Hong Kong a similar property would cost $40,000 per sq m.

New Chinese capital controls, in theory, prevent investment in foreign real estate, but much capital has already left mainland China via Singapore and Hong Kong, says Saito, with other workarounds emerging.

One of the most desirable pockets of Shibuya is Daikanyama, “an up-and-coming hipster area with low-density, low-rise buildings, boutiques and open-air cafés”, according to Mancini. A two-bedroom apartment with roof terrace in Daikanyama is on the market for $2.2m with Japan Property Central. A three-bedroom apartment in the same area is on the market with Sotheby’s International Realty for $1.58m.

Bright lights in Shibuya, Tokyo © Lucas Vallecillos / Getty Images

Modernity meets tradition © Mark Robinson

Near Shibuya station, Nanpeidai, a relatively leafy area where the mansions of Shogun families once stood, is now home to celebrities and former government ministers. A new development, The Parkhouse, Shibuya Nanpeidai, has recently gone on sale off-plan. A five-bedroom house with garden is on the market for $7m with Sotheby’s International Realty.

While Shibuya is experiencing rapid change, the city’s central three wards still command the highest prices. Land in the Ginza shopping district in Chuo ward is the most expensive in the country — if not the world — reaching $350,000 per sq metre. Aoyama, a cosmopolitan residential neighbourhood with international supermarkets and schools, in Minato ward, is popular with expatriates.

Japan is predicted to remain the world’s third-biggest economy after China and the US, according to Nomura research. “Tokyo is a global city home to more Fortune 500 companies than any city, apart from Beijing,” says Mancini.

House on Nanpeidai Estate, £5.3m

Japanese homes devalue as much as 10 per cent a year, and are usually rebuilt after 30 years, with newer anti-seismic technology. But investors resident in Japan still benefit overall, because of generous mortgage tax-breaks, combined with low interest rates and rental returns are around 3-4 per cent a year.

But there are indicators that the market has peaked: there was a price reduction of 0.7 per cent across Greater Tokyo in December, compared with the year before. “We thought the market was going to collapse,” says Saito.

Tokyo’s population is growing by 1 per cent a year and because land is limited, prices might continue to strengthen. But other factors suggest prices may be reaching a ceiling. New units sold for an average of 28.7 times Tokyo’s annual average rent in 2016, up 1.4 points from 12 months earlier and 4.9 points from 2012, according to Tokyo Kantei, an appraiser. In August, prices dipped again by 1.08 per cent year-on-year, according to Japan Real Estate Institute.

The IMF predicts the country’s economy will grow just 0.5 per cent for the next five years. North Korea is also a concern. If Abenomics doesn’t lead to a revival in the Japanese economy, investors may be left, like Hachiko, waiting for a return that never comes.

Buying guide

• Taxes and fees (including 3 per cent to the buyer’s agent) will add about 6 to 10 per cent to the purchase price
• There are no restrictions on foreigners owning homes, but a home doesn’t come with a residence permit, which overseas buyers may need if they wish to live in Japan
• When buying an apartment, it is important to own the land as well]

What you can buy for . . .

• $900,000 A two-bedroom apartment in Tokyo’s Minato ward
• $1.75m A three-bedroom apartment in the Nishiazabu neighbourhood
• $8m A penthouse in the city centre]

Shinjuku Gyoen National Garden © Micah Cox

Photographs: Allan Baxter / Getty Images; Lucas Vallecillos / Getty Images; Mark Robinson; Micah Cox

More homes at propertylistings.ft.com

Saludos.

[visillófilas pepitófagas]

Gracias a Kung Fury, en el blog de Alexis Ortega, por el informe inminentista de Crescat Capital

November 18, 2017

Dear Investors,

US large cap stocks are the most overvalued in history, higher than prior speculative mania market peaks in 1929 and 2000. We prove it conclusively across six comprehensive dimensions:

1. Price to Sales
2. Price to Book
3. Enterprise Value to Sales
4. Enterprise Value to EBITDA
5. Price to Earnings
6. Enterprise Value to Free Cash Flow

Brutal bear markets and recessions have historically followed from record valuations like we have today, and this time will almost certainly be no different. Not even positive macro factors like low interest rates, low inflation, or recently improving earnings growth can justify today’s extreme valuation levels. As we show herein, that was the same backdrop that we had in 1929, the setup to the biggest market crash in history and the Great Depression. Optimism over “new-era” technologies are not justification for high multiples today; they are hallmarks of market tops. Artificial intelligence and crypto-currencies feature prominently in current investor enthusiasm, a climate akin to the tech bubble peak. Also, excitement over new pro-business and pro-economic growth policies coming from Washington are poor grounds to rationalize today’s valuations. Again, this is a hallmark of a market top. History has proven that market plunges routinely follow first-year Republican presidents where ebullience over business-friendly government policy runs rampant and only sets the market up for failure. Witness the market meltdowns that followed Hoover (1929), Eisenhower (1953), Nixon (1969), Reagan (1981), and Bush (2001) in their first years. Any real economic boost from Republican tax cuts now before Congress, if such legislation passes, is already more than priced into the market.

There are many catalysts that are likely to send stocks into bear market in the near term. A likely bursting of the China credit bubble is first and foremost among them. Our data and analysis show that China today is the biggest credit bubble of any country in history. We believe its bursting will be globally contagious for equities, real estate, and credit markets. The US and China bubbles are part of a larger, global debt-to-GDP bubble, which is also historic in scale, and the product of excessive, lingering central bank easy monetary policies in the wake of the now long-passed 2008 Global Financial Crisis. These policies failed to resolve the debt-to-GDP imbalances that preceded the last crisis. Now, central bank easy monetary policies have created even bigger debt-to-GDP imbalances and asset bubbles today that will precipitate the next one.

We are in the very late stages of the global economic and business expansion cycle with investor sentiment reflecting record optimism typical at market peaks, a sign of capitulation in very late stages of a bull market. Crescat is positioned profit from the coming broad, global cyclical market and economic downturn that we foresee. We strongly believe that our global equity net short positioning in our hedge funds will be validated soon.

Pueden bajarse el informe de 23 páginas aquí:
https://www.crescat.net/wp-content/uploads/Crescat-Capital-Q3-2017-Quarterly-Letter.pdf

[azkunaveteya]

Deadzoner
Starkiller
El Paleto
Miss Marple
Indenaiks
Blichon
Errozate
Sardinita
La Barquera
Chamaleon
Wanderer
Visillofilas Pepitofogas
Desde Mi huerto
Azkunaveteya
JuanCarlos aparejador
Puto Cajero Jefe
El Presi
El Arquitecto
Archimandrita
Pollo
MisterMaguf
Bulldozer
Alvin Red
Neutron Mortages
RGCIM


Y me dejo muchos y no están otros de los grandes que conocí más tarde

Newclo, reconozco que me da un poco de vergüenza verme en esa lista, pero gracias por recordarnos todos esos nicks, que forman parte de algo que cambió mi vida, quiero pensar que para bien. En cualquier caso, habría que decir que, estando en 2017, las cosas no han ido como pensábamos. El monstruo era mucho más grande y fuerte de lo que suponíamos.

Pero, para mi, seguir a ppcc y los debates asociados se convirtió en un precepto, que me ha aportado mucho personalmente. No participo un poco por pereza y un mucho porque no creo que pueda aportar más allá de lo que ya leo, pero aprovecho para enviar mi agradecimiento a los que mantienen la llama encendida (sagrada, porque mantiene la luz entre tantas tinieblas interesadas).

Un saludo

Yo me acuerdo perfectamente del avatar de Neutron 


Me alegra ver que PPCC está al tanto de las últimas cosas del BCE. Yo las ando posteando desde hace 1 mes en el ppal de Catalunyainmobiliaria.info...
 A ver si comenta algo del Target2, y lo que pidió el Bundesbank hace 3-4 años de incautación de % de depósitos.

Y a ver si comenta algo de traer la directiva europea a españa de captación de fondos de pensiones y hacerlos atractivos casi obligatorios (mfbh)

Por comentar, hubo una pregunta de un forero que lee, hace poco en una reunión X hace cosa de 1 mes, de cómo proteger nuestro dinero en caso de lo que pueda pasar: la respuesta fue, que lo primero es que trincarían del dinero de los planes de pensiones privados, que lo mejor era rescatarlo cuanto antes y coger ese dinero.

Además de ya haber experiencias previas

[visillófilas pepitófagas]

LOS QUE CREEN QUE LA CRISIS ES 'FINANCIERA' NO ENTIENDEN LO QUE ESTÁ PASANDO AHORA.-

Nunca nos han explicado qué es eso de que la crisis era 'financiera'. ¿Acaso hay alguna crisis que no sea financiera?

La tan cacareada crisis 'financiera' no es más el lado feo del modelo popularcapitalista puesto en marcha en los 1980.

¿Cómo no vas a tener problemas 'financieros' si la mitad de la Renta se te pierde como agua en un cesto, acabando en destinos 'aproductivos': rentas inmobiliarias, rentas financiero-fijas, pensiones y subsidios, y supersalarios?

Parece que la moda entre los 'financieristas' es la Hipótesis 'Everything Bubble':
- «In 2000, we had the internet bubble. In 2007, we had the housing bubble. In 2017, we have the everything bubble».
http://www.mauldineconomics.com/the-10th-man/the-everything-bubble
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-19/people-ask-wheres-leverage-time-eric-peters-answers

Inicialmente nos gustó la idea de la 'todoburbuja', pero nos hemos dado cuenta de que forma parte del 'financierismo', según el cual, lo no-financiero es 'víctima' de lo financiero —cuando la relación causal es la contraria—.

Lo hemos pensado mejor y, de 'todoburbuja', nada de nada. Para nosotros:
- «In 2000, we had the internet bubble. In 2007, we had the housing bubble. In 2017, we have the internet & housing re-bubble».

Que el 'leverage' irracional esté más repartido que en 2000 y 2007 solo quiere decir que, ahora, los 'financieristas' van a tener más difícil culpar a lo financiero del repinchazo de la burbuja popularcapitalista.

Gracias por leernos.

P.S.: Los últimos serán los primeros.-
El equipo español —Mapfre— de la 'Volvo Ocean Race', en la segunda etapa Lisboa-Ciudad del Cabo, ha optado por navegar más al sur que nadie, lo que le relegaba al último lugar; pero ello le ha permitido beneficiarse de los vientos más alejados del anticiclón; y ahora navega hacia el este, proa a Ciudad del Cabo,... ¡en primer lugar!
http://www.volvooceanrace.com/es/dashboard.html

Publicado por: pisitófilos creditófagos | 11/20/2017 en 02:21 a.m.

http://blogs.cincodias.com/el-puente/2017/11/la-vida-es-un-carnaval.html#comments

[lagarto]

El discurso de Draghi completo está aqui:

http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2017/html/ecb.sp171117.en.html

Voy a incluir el cierre del mismo (conclusión)

Let me conclude. The ECB’s mandate is framed in terms of price stability, as this is the best contribution that we can make to the welfare of citizens. Ensuring price stability is a precondition for the economy to be able to grow along a balanced path that can be sustained in the long run. This is the guiding principle of all our monetary policy decisions.

With the recovery ongoing, now is the right moment for the euro area to address further challenges to stability. This means actively putting our fiscal houses in order and building up buffers for the future – not just waiting for growth to gradually reduce debt. It means implementing structural reforms that will allow our economies to converge and grow at higher speeds over the long term. And it means addressing the remaining gaps in the institutional architecture of our monetary union.

Buscando por internet el término "fiscal houses in order",  casi todos los documentos de la Unión Europea donde se mencionan son del 2007, año arriba o abajo.

http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=COM:2007:0231:FIN:EN:PDF


Sobre reformas estructurales hubo una jornada en Octubre en el BCE.

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2017/html/ecb.sp171018.en.html

[sudden and sharp]

Parece que las manos fuertes han encontrado el mecanismo de vender sin que se note en el precio...

[...]
Es decir, si se fija y desde los máximos de finales de 2015, esas manos fuertes no han hecho más que ir reduciendo sus posiciones en acciones americanas hasta llegar, hoy día, a estar muy cerca de los mínimos de estos últimos años. Mientras esto ha sucedido, el precio (S&P500) no ha dejado de subir en un ambiente de cierta euforia y autocomplacencia como muestran tanto la volatilidad actual del mercado, como las posiciones cortas récord abiertas sobre ella.

Así las cosas, mientras le hacen creer que todo va bien y que la bolsa que usted ve está imparable y no hay alternativa alguna para tanta liquidez, los grandes jugadores no hacen más que colocarle sus títulos mientras reducen sus posiciones al mínimo de los últimos años. Posiblemente me equivoque, pero el ADN del mercado no miente y debería por lo menos, darle una pensada antes de tomar nuevas decisiones.

https://blogs.elconfidencial.com/mercados/de-vuelta/2017-11-20/lado-oscuro-bolsa-economia-valores-dominacion_1480024/

Dark pools + HFT contra las tiernas gacelas... ¿Qué puede salir mal?