PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Invierno 2019

[visillófilas pepitófagas]

Y, por cierto, ni virus ni historias. El virus ese sólo ha sido un disparador como podría haber sido cualquier otra cosa.

Exactamente.

[Derby]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/24/lebanon-crisis-debt-default-is-virtually-certain-after-credit-downgrades.html

In Lebanon, default is ‘virtually certain’ after stark credit downgrades

Investors holding Lebanese bonds are expecting the worst, as years of financial mismanagement may well push the country to default on its debt for the first time in its history.

International Monetary Fund officials have been called in to help find a solution to manage Lebanon’s overwhelming debt — some 160% of GDP, the highest ratio in the world — amid the worst financial crisis since the Mediterranean country’s brutal 1975-90 civil war and months of popular protests.

Lebanon was hit with a double downgrade over the weekend by two of the world’s largest ratings agencies, dragging its sovereign credit rating further into junk territory. Moody’s and S&P Global Ratings downgraded Lebanon’s long-term foreign currency rating to Ca and CC, respectively — both of which are ten levels below investment grade. The country is now rated lower than Argentina and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

[Derby]

https://www.axios.com/yield-curve-deepest-inversion-77911ca0-3ae5-4ea3-aeee-33edb9940274.html

The yield curve makes its deepest inversion since October

The U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted again, with 3-month Treasury bills holding a higher yield (1.56%) than 10-year Treasury notes (1.46%).

The big picture: This is the second time the yield curve has inverted in a matter of weeks, and the third time in a matter of months. It's the deepest the yield curve has been inverted since Oct. 9.

Why it matters: Economists at the Fed call the 3-month/10-year inversion the "best summary measure" of economic downturn and a yield curve inversion has preceded every recession of the last 50 years within approximately six to 24 months.

[Derby]

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/02/24/stocks-plunge-traders-confused-this-wasnt-supposed-to-happen-complacency-exacts-its-toll/

Stocks Plunge (or Dip?), Traders Confused: This Wasn’t Supposed to Happen. Complacency Exacts its Toll

The coronavirus is just the latest in a long series of issues successfully brushed off as irrelevant because all that mattered was that stocks went up.

But it didn’t matter because nothing mattered because stocks always go up. Until they don’t. The sudden turnaround of the stock market is confusing our coddled traders. How could this happen? Didn’t the Fed guarantee that stocks would never fall?

Then there’s QE-4, that $400 billion in liquidity that the Fed threw at the market between mid-September and the end of December. The market kept hyping the certainty that it would last forever. But it suddenly stopped at the end of December. And the Fed’s balance sheet has been essentially flat since then, turning from Big-Fat QE into No-QE:



And that shift from Big-Fat QE to No-QE too has been known since January 1 because the Fed posts these numbers daily and weekly, and I report on it regularly, but the market just brushed them off, preferring to believe the misbegotten stories in the financial media about endless trillions of dollars still being created in repo liquidity.

So here we are. The drop in the market is still just a dip in the overall scheme of things. But the evil smell of reality has caused the market to puke today. That doesn’t mean that a new bout of complacency won’t set in. It’s always surprising to rational observers how long and to what ludicrous extent this complacency can be driven.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-24/why-today-after-weeks-of-holding-firm-stocks-finally-sell-off?srnd=premium

Why Today? After Weeks of Holding Firm, Stocks Finally Sell Off



Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group:

“The 30-year yield last week broke to new lows and the 10-year yield is on the cusp of that. I think that is a bigger culprit behind the sell-off than most appreciate. All the headlines are about the coronavirus, but I think the bigger thing in the room is the bond market. It’s been a chronic fear for some time -- actually, it has been a fear throughout this recovery -- but it certainly has been since last year when the stock market took off and bond yields went down. There’s been this idea: what does the bond market know that the stock market doesn’t? And the bond market seems to be suggesting some near-term calamity while stocks seem to be ignoring it and it’s creating a lot of fear.”

[senslev]

Trump:

[Derby]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1232058127740174339

The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. We are in contact with everyone and all relevant countries. CDC & World Health have been working hard and very smart. Stock Market starting to look very good to me!

Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump)

[visillófilas pepitófagas]

Los bancos españoles están a la espera de un juicio que puede calificar los intereses de algunas de sus tarjetas como usura.

Extracto de la noticia en Cinco Días

La banca se juega en el Supremo los intereses de 14.000 millones en crédito de tarjetas
- El alto tribunal dirá si los intereses, que rondan el 20%, son usureros; el caso abordado es el de WiZink pero afectará a todo el sector
- El sector patrio se juega la rentabilidad de unos 14.000 millones en créditos.
- El tipo de interés medio de los nuevos préstamos de este tipo que se conceden se situaba el pasado diciembre en el 19,67%
- [...] el dato supone una media, lo que indica que hay créditos ligados a tarjetas a tipos muy superiores. Así ocurre especialmente con los préstamos de las denominadas tarjetas revolving, que permiten al cliente elegir las cuotas a devolver mensualmente con el riesgo de que su elevado coste termine por convertir la deuda en perpetua, como alertó hace unos meses a los consumidores el Banco de España.
- Este producto “esconde tipos de interés altísimos, por u (sic) lado, y la práctica imposibilidad de amortizar capital si se elige una cuota baja”, explican desde Agencia Negociadora, donde apuntan a un tipo de interés medio del 25% en las tarjetas revolving y a un creciente peso dentro del sector de crédito de tarjetas.
https://cincodias.elpais.com/cincodias/2020/02/21/companias/1582297831_388997.html


Extracto de la noticia en Yahoo

Spain's banks brace for usury ruling on "snowball" credit cards

- Supreme Court to rule on high-interest "revolving" credit cards
- Banks facing hundreds of lawsuits from debt-laden customers
- Uncertainty in segment hampers WiZink's IPO plans
- WiZink says higher cost of cards due to bigger risk
- Government plans bill to better regulate sector

By Jesús Aguado

MADRID, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Spain's banks are on edge for an upcoming Supreme Court ruling that will decide at what point the interest charged on credit card borrowing is so high it could be classed as "usury".

Ultra low rates have pushed Spanish banks to seek returns from more profitable business lines such as consumer credit.

But high rates on increasingly popular cards, which allow periodic payments and automatically renew credit lines, have sparked a wave of lawsuits from debt-laden borrowers.

A case brought by one woman from Santander over a "Visa City Oro" card issued in 2012 with an annual interest rate of 26.82% is to be heard from Feb. 26 by Spain's highest court.

Her so-called "revolving" credit card, which allows customers to continuously borrow up to certain limits depending on purchases and payments, was originally issued by Citibank Spain but now belongs to online lender WiZink.

Two lower courts have ruled the rate represents usury, prompting WiZink to appeal.

If the Supreme Court rules the rate in the Santander woman's case was too high or poorly explained, it could leave banks with a large compensation bill and having to cut rates.

WiZink, which is facing 2,500 lawsuits over credit cards, declined to comment on the case. It is one of many banks offering cards with interest rates that can top 25%.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/spains-banks-brace-usury-ruling-154337240.html

[asustadísimos]

YA ESTÁ AQUÍ.—

Hueco inédito:


Curva invertidísima:


Protagonismo de la FED:


'Game over'.

[Yupi_Punto]

Como esta vez tampoco sea la buena sus seguidores le van a capar a usted a “bocaos”. 

Que no nos falte pisitos, manque yerre. Podría hacer lo mismo sin mojarse con el timing, prefiere divertirse.

[Leandro]

Dicho popular.
Siempre una empresa reparte un riesgo de perdidas seguras: saliendo a bolsa, han visto alguna vez que una empresa con beneficios recurrentes "hasta ahora "como el Corte Ingles ?...huyan cuando salga

(Idealista sale a Bolsa ¡¡¡)
https://www.elconfidencial.com/empresas/2020-02-25/apax-contrata-bofa-morgan-stanley-sacar-bolsa-idealista_2468368/

[Spheratu]

Como esta vez tampoco sea la buena sus seguidores le van a capar a usted a “bocaos”. 

No sean ustedes crueles. Si además de todo lo que acierta, que es mucho, acertara también en el timing, sería ya digno de un expediente X o un monográfico de cuarto milenio.
Es año electoral, si "esta es la buena", va a dar igual, nuestro amigo Jerónimo Powell se encargará de suavizar las cosas.

[Yupi_Punto]

Como esta vez tampoco sea la buena sus seguidores le van a capar a usted a “bocaos”. 

No sean ustedes crueles. Si además de todo lo que acierta, que es mucho, acertara también en el timing, sería ya digno de un expediente X o un monográfico de cuarto milenio.
Es año electoral, si "esta es la buena", va a dar igual, nuestro amigo Jerónimo Powell se encargará de suavizar las cosas.

Hábleles usted de crueldad a todos los que han abierto posiciones cortas cada vez que han leído en el foro un: YA ESTÁ AQUÍ.— 

Yo creo que para buscar gurús y dinero fácil, a otro sitio. Aquí para  aprender.
Además PPCC encaja muy bien la críticas constructivas.

[PastorMesetario]

Si alguien abre largos o cortos basándose en lo que digan desconocidos en un foro de internet -aunque sea este - necesita ayuda profesional.

[R.G.C.I.M.]

Una de las condiciones necesarias para poder ser criticado es no borrar los mensajes.


Sds.