PPCC. PIsitófilos Creditófagos. Otoño 2020

[Derby]

https://www.elconfidencial.com/economia/2020-11-23/funcas-previsiones-crecimiento-recaida-pib-cuarto-trimestre_2844551/

Funcas prevé una recaída del PIB del 5% en el cuarto trimestre por los rebrotes del virus

El tercer trimestre fue mucho mejor de lo que esperaba la entidad, por lo que mejora en un punto su previsión de caída del PIB para 2020 al -12%, pero anticipa una recuperación más lenta

El PIB español sufrirá un nuevo desplome del 5% en el último trimestre del año como consecuencia de las medidas de restricción de la movilidad adoptadas para contener al virus. Funcas ha actualizado este lunes su cuadro de previsiones económicas en el que anticipa un duro golpe a la economía española a causa de los rebrotes del coronavirus. Después del fuerte crecimiento registrado durante el verano, durante las semanas de la 'nueva normalidad', el regreso del virus está provocando una brusca desaceleración de la actividad. Funcas estima que estas restricciones tendrán un impacto severo sobre el consumo de los hogares, que caerá nada menos que un 8% en comparación con el tercer trimestre del año. También sufrirá un fuerte revés la inversión (FBCF), que caerá un 4,6%. Solo el consumo público contrarrestará los malos datos de la demanda privada con un crecimiento del 2%.

Todos estos factores agregados provocarán una caída del 5% del PIB en el cuarto trimestre del año. Esto significa que, si se cumplen las previsiones de Funcas, la economía española terminará este ejercicio 2020 casi un 14% por debajo de los niveles previos a la crisis. La previsión de Funcas va en línea con la nueva estimación de Deutsche Bank remitida este lunes a sus clientes, en la que anticipa una caída del PIB de España del 5,2% este trimestre. Esta recaída del PIB será puntual, de modo que volverá el crecimiento en el primer trimestre de 2021 y se evitará una segunda recesión (dos trimestres consecutivos de contracción).

Eso sí, Funcas prevé que el impacto económico de las restricciones en el cuarto trimestre del año se extenderá al inicio de 2021, ya que los rebrotes del virus difícilmente acabarán si no hay una vacuna disponible. El resultado es que el crecimiento previsto para el próximo año será más tenue y dependerá en gran medida del descubrimiento de la vacuna. En este nuevo escenario, la entidad anticipa una recuperación más lenta de lo que esperaba hasta ahora, de modo que ha rebajado en 1,2 puntos su previsión de crecimiento, hasta el 6,7%. De hecho, estima que la economía española no recuperará el nivel de PIB del pasado verano hasta el segundo trimestre de 2021.

(...) Funcas estima que si el proceso de vacunación no está muy avanzado a lo largo del segundo trimestre del año, la recuperación se estancará en el segundo semestre de 2021 y España perderá, al menos, un año en la salida de la crisis. La entidad calcula que la diferencia, en términos de crecimiento, de disponer o no de la vacuna en la primera mitad del próximo año será de casi 3 puntos de PIB, pasando de un crecimiento del 6,7% a quedarse en un 4%.

[Derby]

The Independent repartiendo estopa a Sunak...

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/rishi-sunak-no-different-rest-161320212.html

Rishi Sunak is no different from the rest. A Brexiteer fantasist armed with a big lie and not much more

(...) Rishi Sunak, charming, likeable and calmingly unaggressive as he may be, is no different. For as long as he declines to elaborate in any meaningful way on the great economic benefits of Brexit, he should be taken no more seriously than the rest of them.

Next year, no doubt, the economic privations of Brexit, and the needlessly hard one that will have been secured, will be very easy to bury beneath the after effects of coronavirus. The ageing Brexit hardcore may to the lay person appear somewhat unhinged, but to a certain extent, they have their integrity. It is not impossible to foresee their declining to blame coronavirus for the consequences of Brexit, because they have always been willing to bear the consequences, or more accurately, for other people to bear them.

On current evidence, Sunak may find he does not have sufficient reservoirs of moral courage to draw upon. If the c-word is his crutch now, it is hard to imagine it will not continue to be so.

”We will prosper in any eventuality.” He knows it isn’t true, and yet he continues to say it.

Though he may not be as steeped in the lies of Brexit as Johnson, it should be clearly understood that the two men are just the same. Sunak may be a new character in the story, but the plot hasn’t changed in the slightest.

[Derby]

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-boe-idUKKBN2832BC?taid=5fbbfb6cf7584a0001973c11

No-deal Brexit would have a more lasting effect on UK than COVID - BoE's Bailey

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said on Monday a no-deal Brexit would cause longer-term damage to Britain’s economy than the COVID-19 pandemic, and the impact of the change might be felt for decades.

“Well, I think the long-term effects ... would be larger than the long-term effects of COVID,” Bailey said when asked by a lawmaker about the consequences for the economy if Britain and the European Union fail to strike a post-Brexit trade deal.

London and Brussels remain locked in negotiations ahead of the Dec. 31 expiry of Britain’s Brexit transition period.

Bailey said he was “at the rather more optimistic end” about the impact of COVID, beyond its short-term shock which the BoE thinks will cause a record 11% contraction of Britain’s economy this year.

“It takes a much longer period of time for what I call the real side of the economy to adjust to the change in openness and adjust to the change in the profile of trade,” he told parliament’s Treasury Committee.

He recalled how officials working in 1997 on tests for whether Britain should adopt the euro estimated it would take 30 to 40 years for the economy to adapt to a shift to the single currency.

“It’s hard to put a multiple on it as you say, but I think you’re basically right to say that in that scenario you would expect a longer-term effect from the exit trade agreement,” Bailey said.

[Maloserá]

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-boe-idUKKBN2832BC?taid=5fbbfb6cf7584a0001973c11

No-deal Brexit would have a more lasting effect on UK than COVID - BoE's Bailey

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said on Monday a no-deal Brexit would cause longer-term damage to Britain’s economy than the COVID-19 pandemic, and the impact of the change might be felt for decades....

Aparte de que esto tiene lógica (suponiendo que no haya cambios económicos grandes una vez que estemos todos vacunados y niquelados) estaba pensando en el bajón de nivel que ha habido, para mí tanto en el Bank of England desde la salida de Carney, como en el ECB, desde que se fue Monti.

Los anteriores eran economistas. Los de ahora, no. Supongo que bien asesorados y tal. Pero son políticos al frente de instituciones que en teoría deberían ser independientes y técnicas.

El economista jefe del Bank of England tiene buena pinta. Pero Bailey dice lo que le digan sobre economía. Lagarde idem.

[saturno]

Biziraun, no hay ningún "deber", lo que hay es una obligación jurídica de usar uno (o más) idioma oficial con tu interlocutor en un territorio determinado,

¡Ah vale! Todo aclarado. Gracias Saturno.
Es que en la Constitución pone "deber" pero veo que al final no es un "deber" si no que es una "obligación jurídica". Ok

 
Escribi superrapido sin releer. Ok llamalo deber, solo pido que le quitemos el componente emocional,
Y que se sepa qu'e impuestos  se pagan en la lengua oficial de turno,


(Y me interesa  leer tus conclusiones y otros argumentos en respuesta a la pregunta que hiciste)

[Derby]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/10904611/11/20/Sanchez-pierde-el-pulso-y-cede-a-pactar-la-prohibicion-de-los-desahucios.html

Sánchez pierde el pulso y cede a pactar la prohibición de los desahucios
-ERC, Bildu y Podemos piden paralizar hasta 2023
-El Gobierno negocia extender hasta el 9 de mayo de 2021 la propuesta
-La formación morada se enroca en su posición y no retira la enmienda

[siempretarde]

Pues eso "The Independent" == "Prisa 2.0". Y esos bancos Ingleses esperando para fusionarse con otros del "continente" para poder seguir operando en la UE ... A remar Rhein pa´rriba.

The Independent repartiendo estopa a Sunak...

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/rishi-sunak-no-different-rest-161320212.html

Rishi Sunak is no different from the rest. A Brexiteer fantasist armed with a big lie and not much more

(...) Rishi Sunak, charming, likeable and calmingly unaggressive as he may be, is no different. For as long as he declines to elaborate in any meaningful way on the great economic benefits of Brexit, he should be taken no more seriously than the rest of them.

Next year, no doubt, the economic privations of Brexit, and the needlessly hard one that will have been secured, will be very easy to bury beneath the after effects of coronavirus. The ageing Brexit hardcore may to the lay person appear somewhat unhinged, but to a certain extent, they have their integrity. It is not impossible to foresee their declining to blame coronavirus for the consequences of Brexit, because they have always been willing to bear the consequences, or more accurately, for other people to bear them.

On current evidence, Sunak may find he does not have sufficient reservoirs of moral courage to draw upon. If the c-word is his crutch now, it is hard to imagine it will not continue to be so.

”We will prosper in any eventuality.” He knows it isn’t true, and yet he continues to say it.

Though he may not be as steeped in the lies of Brexit as Johnson, it should be clearly understood that the two men are just the same. Sunak may be a new character in the story, but the plot hasn’t changed in the slightest.

[Derby]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/10904653/11/20/Biden-elige-a-la-expresidenta-de-la-Fed-Janet-Yellen-para-la-Secretaria-del-Tesoro.html

Biden elige a la expresidenta de la Fed Janet Yellen para la Secretaría del Tesoro

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-election-biden-yellen/factbox-janet-yellens-road-to-u-s-treasury-secretary-idUSL1N2I922E

Janet Yellen's road to U.S. Treasury Secretary

Janet Yellen, 74, is President-elect Joe Biden’s pick to be Treasury Secretary, according to two Democratic allies.

The nomination caps a storied, decades-long career for Yellen, who was often the first woman in many roles in the male-dominated fields of economics and monetary policy. Here’s some key facts about the former Federal Reserve chair and economics professor.

WHAT’S HER BACKSTORY?

After her 2013 nomination by President Barack Obama, Yellen was the first woman to head the U.S. central bank, and will be the country’s first female Treasury Secretary if confirmed by the United States Senate next year.

She grew up the daughter of a family doctor and elementary school teacher in Brooklyn. With a PhD from Yale, she has taught economics at the University of California, Berkeley, Harvard University and the London School of Economics (LSE).

She also spent years in Washington, including as chair of President Bill Clinton's council of economic advisors, the second woman to hold the job, and in many positions at the Fed, where she met here her husband, Nobel Prize-winning economist George Akerlof, in 1977.

Among their many co-authored papers is one here that may be especially relevant to her job at Treasury - in it they argued for the importance of economic stabilizers during downturns, like cash for the unemployed.

Their only child is also a university economics professor.

WHAT’S HER BIGGEST POLICY IMPRINT?

Yellen was deeply involved in some of the most important changes at the Fed in its more than 100-year history, including crafting the 2012 framework that officially established 2% as the Fed’s inflation target.

Her 2014 speech here on income inequality that identified it as a hurdle to America's democratic ideals helped move the issue to the Fed's front burner and paved the way for the U.S. central bank's newly revised framework that aims at "inclusive" full employment.

She was also instrumental in convincing her fellow policymakers that unemployment could drop much farther than previously thought without pushing up inflation. During her tenure as Fed chair, she and colleagues lowered their estimate of the full employment rate to 4.6% from 5.5% (it’s since come down even further).

That view allowed her to fend off both internal and external pressure for the Fed’s long-anticipated lift-off from zero rates after the Global Recession until December 2015. This effectively allowed hundreds of thousands of more Americans to get jobs than otherwise would have.

WHAT’S HER MOST CONTROVERSIAL MOMENT?

That same decision - the Fed’s December 2015 liftoff from zero rates - was arguably also Yellen’s most controversial.

In hindsight, it was seen not as too late, but too early, a move that slowed the recovery unnecessarily.

Indeed, financial markets convulsed and the economy did slow, and the Fed did not raise rates again until a full year later. But Yellen, who for years had held off critics who warned that low rates were stoking the fires of inflation and financial instability, was keen to normalize policy after years of unconventional easing.

Since then, other Fed policymakers have come to the view that the Fed ought to have waited even longer to raise rates.

HER KEY ALLIES

To make effective U.S. economic policy, Treasury secretaries need a good working relationship with the central bank, and Yellen certainly has that. Current Fed Chair Jerome Powell was a Fed governor when she was Fed chair, and they’ve kept in frequent touch over meals and by phone since she passed him the baton to lead the central bank.

She also mentored the influential New York Fed chief, John Williams, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly.

Internationally she’s well connected as well, having had personal dealings with many of the key financial players in Europe and elsewhere during her tenure at the Fed.

HER ACHILLES HEEL

Yellen has spent years in Washington, and testified in Congress many times, fending off her share of public and partisan criticism with even-tempered, data-based responses.

But she was never one to haunt the halls of Capitol Hill to win over hearts and minds, as Fed Chair Powell has made it his business to do.

Convincing Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to pass more fiscal stimulus to fight the impacts of the COVID-19 downturn may be a formidable task.

[siempretarde]

Buena eleccion, de los ultimos 5 en ezb+fed para mi la mejor con vision a largo plazo. Como a la May (o a ella misma), le toca coger la patata caliente de sus antecesores, y echarle .... h......

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/10904653/11/20/Biden-elige-a-la-expresidenta-de-la-Fed-Janet-Yellen-para-la-Secretaria-del-Tesoro.html

Biden elige a la expresidenta de la Fed Janet Yellen para la Secretaría del Tesoro

[Derby]

 

https://www.expansion.com/empresas/inmobiliario/2020/11/23/5fbbee9a468aeb94548b45a6.html

Altamira se suma al Black Friday con descuentos en 2.500 inmuebles por toda España

La campaña estará vigente hasta el 15 de diciembre, e incluye 2.344 viviendas y 223 locales, naves y oficinas

[Derby]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/politica/2020/11/23/5fbbfa1a468aeb8e0f8b45f1.html?intcmp=NOT002

Von der Leyen y Michel hablan por teléfono con Biden y le invitan a un Consejo Europeo

La presidenta de la Comisión y el máximo representante del Consejo Europeo felicitaron al presidente electo estadounidense y le propusieron reconstruir y fortalecer las relaciones transatlánticas en esta nueva etapa.

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-fed-evans/update-1-feds-evans-sees-no-rate-hikes-until-late-2023-maybe-2024-idUSL1N2I926Z

Fed's Evans sees no rate hikes until late 2023, maybe 2024

Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said Monday there is still “quite a long ways to go” for the U.S. recovery from the coronavirus crisis, adding that he expects the Fed to keep interest rates at their current near-zero level until perhaps into 2024.

[pedrito]

Berlin landlords forced to reduce rents
https://www.dw.com/en/berlin-landlords-forced-to-reduce-rents/a-55704047?fbclid=IwAR0i6nbKjzokQ2BgmImiMfm5mBsdUhft5z1c194uNQ71t_ssVKSe4-E6ZIs
The second stage of the German capital's rent cap law has come into effect, meaning that thousands of Berlin landlords could be forced to reduce their rents. But the legal battle over the law is not yet over.

From November 23, landlords in the German capital must lower excessively high rents — that is, if they exceed a standardized limit by more than 20% — or face heavy fines. The German constitutional court dismissed the landlord associations' attempts to halt the imminent reductions at the end of October.

Read more: How Berlin's rent freeze compares globally

Some 85% of all Berliners rent their apartments, and according to the Berlin Tenants' Association (BMV), some 365,000 apartments in the city are eligible for the imminent rent reduction. But that figure is disputed: A study by the F+B real estate consultancy estimates that over half a million apartments are eligible.

[Derby]

https://www.vozpopuli.com/economia-y-finanzas/barca-dinero-hacienda_0_1412859519.html

El Barça alega que no tiene dinero para pagar 22,7 millones a Hacienda

La Agencia Tributaria le reclamó esa cantidad en junio de este año. El juez ha dado dos meses al Barça para prestar una garantía

[Derby]

Lael Brainard en las quinielas para próxima responsable de la Fed...

http://economiccollapsenews.com/2020/11/23/shes-back-joe-biden-to-tap-janet-yellen-as-next-treasury-secretary/

SHE’S BACK? Joe Biden to tap Janet Yellen as next Treasury Secretary
Guess who’s back. Back again.

According to The Wall Street Journal, President-Elect Joe Biden has chosen former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen to head the Treasury Department.

The newspaper cited unnamed sources, adding that Biden is expected to reveal his Treasury Secretary around Thanksgiving.

Does this set the stage for Lael Brainard to be Biden’s pick as the next head of the Federal Reserve? Probably.

But with John Kerry and Antony Blinken already being given top slots in his administration, the foul stench of the Swamp is returning. Not that much of it left anyway, but still…

https://www.ambito.com/economia/tesoro/quien-es-lael-brainard-la-favorita-ser-la-primera-secretaria-del-eeuu-n5149691