Los administradores de TransicionEstructural no se responsabilizan de las opiniones vertidas por los usuarios del foro. Cada usuario asume la responsabilidad de los comentarios publicados.
0 Usuarios y 5 Visitantes están viendo este tema.
Dr. Nate Hagens is the Executive Director of The Institute for the Study of Energy & Our Future (ISEOF), an organization focused on educating and preparing society for the coming cultural transition.Formerly in the finance industry at Lehman Brothers and Salomon Brothers, since 2003 Nate has shifted his focus to understanding the interrelationships between energy, environment, and finance and the implication this synthesis has for human futures.
Bruselas amenaza con cortar los fondos UE si España no detalla cómo los gastaEl Ministerio de Hacienda asegura que España "recibirá el tercer desembolso" y que está trabajando en mejorar los sistemas de informaciónLa Comisión Europea ha avisado al Gobierno de España que paralizará las próximas entregas del fondo de recuperación por no establecer el nuevo mecanismo para controlar el gasto, el cual figuraba entre los objetivos del plan como condicionante para recibir las inversiones.Según ha adelantado la agencia Bloomberg citando a un alto funcionario comunitario, así lo comunicó el equipo de funcionarios europeos que visitaron Madrid en septiembre y se reunieron con funcionarios del Ministerio de Seguridad Social para evaluar los hitos correspondientes al segundo trimestre de 2022 a los que se comprometió España en el plan.El Ministerio de Hacienda ha detallado a Economía Digital al respecto de esta información que «el diálogo con las autoridades europeas es fluido y constante y la Comisión Europea es conocedora de que España está trabajando, en colaboración con la Agencia Tributaria, en las mejoras de los sistemas de información«.Por su parte, la Comisión Europea ha explicado a Economía Digital que, en el marco de la primera solicitud de pago de los fondos, la Comisión y los Estados miembros consideraron que España había cumplido satisfactoriamente el hito 173, consistente en la implantación de un sistema informático de seguimiento y control del plan. Y que, para garantizar «el cumplimiento continuado del hito y de sus obligaciones de auditoría y control», España asumió «una serie de compromisos».Según la Comisión, dichos compromisos «solo se evalúan en el momento de las solicitudes de pago correspondientes», algo que volverá a hacer con España en el momento en el que envíe la solicitud del tercer pago, algo que aún no ha sucedido.Airef critica la falta de informaciónSin embargo, fue la propia Autoridad Independiente de Responsabilidad Fiscal (Airef) quien criticó la opacidad de los fondos. En concreto su presidenta, Cristina Herreno, señaló este verano que la información facilitada por el Gobierno sobre los fondos «es muy desagregada y dispersa» y que, para conocer el impacto real sobre la economía, «se requiere otro tipo de información» por lo que les es «difícil» hacer un seguimiento. Críticas que Herreo reiteró en la Comisión de Hacienda y Función Pública del Congreso el 27 de junio.
Comprar para alquilar mantiene el atractivo con el alza de tiposCon una inflación galopante y derrumbes de rentabilidad en los activos financieros, el alquiler de una vivienda deja rendimientos del 4%.https://cincodias.elpais.com/cincodias/2022/10/14/midinero/1665759001_164919.html
Señores, que la última vez hicieron falta tres años de crisis para que el personal empezase a claudicar. Y eso que fue una depresión económica que nos dejó la cara del revés.
The Continuum & a PBCThe bottom line is that if/when this inflationary phase falters as expected there is going to have to be a lot (and I am talking about something way beyond the routine bear market that is in play now) anti-asset price pain before that vampire gets invited back into this particular house (of cards, actually).I have long viewed the 30yr yield above as the most elegant indicator I have. It was so beautiful in its unbroken structure and ‘like clockwork’ accuracy at forecasting macro turning points (along an inflation>deflation>inflation>deflation, etc. continuum with a bias to disinflationary signaling).But now that important tool used by the Fed is broken. It broke in April with that big spike candle that pierced through the limiters (now green) and importantly, held the limiters on a subsequent test a few months later.If you believe as I do that the implied disinflationary backbone known as the Continuum above was instrumental in the Fed’s power to manipulate the bond market in service to its inflationary operations, then maybe like me you might wonder how on earth is the Fed going to save the world again during the next meltdown? Or will it simply be runaway inflation forever? von Mises, anyone? Beuller?There is only one clear answer for the years upcoming; this ain’t Grandpa’s or even Dad’s bond market. People have for decades claimed that the Fed is in a box, yet there they always were, inflating away as needed. But one firm statement I can make now is that the assumptions and metrics traditionally used by conventional market analysts (and tragically for the public, financial advisers) are obsolete for what is ahead.For decades the sustaining constant has been periodic deflationary/disinflationary episodes routinely met by a dovish Fed. Today the Fed is forced by its own excess to try to recapture something that has gotten out of its bottle. But the spike above the green moving averages look like a broken lid and the Genie is not going to willingly go back in.If this is finally THE post-bubble contraction the Fed is going to have to invent some new form of manipulation or else it’s going to be a long (and long overdue) economic and financial market contraction that the Fed has been warding off with extremely loose policy for decades. Said PBC would have to clear of its own mechanics. But boy there is a lot of clearing to do after decades of excess.
The Rent Revolution Is ComingFor the 44 million households who rent a home or apartment in the U.S., inflation keeps pushing costs higher and higher. Anger is rising too. It could be a breaking point.(...) Such is the state of housing in America, where rising costs are flaring into pockets of resistance and rage. Take two-plus years of pandemic-fueled eviction anxiety and spiking home prices, add a growing inflation problem that is being increasingly driven by rising rents, and throw in a long-run affordable housing shortage that cities seem powerless to solve. Add it up and the 44 million U.S. households who rent a home or apartment have many reasons to be unhappy.That unhappiness extends across the economic spectrum. At one end are renters who aspire to buy a home but have had their dreams dashed by high home prices and, now, rising mortgage rates. At the other are low-income tenants who make up the bulk of the 11 million households who spend more than half of their income on rent. In between is a hollowed-out middle class that is steadily losing ground, although not enough to qualify for much sympathy or help.The confluence of all these forces has fueled a swell of tenants’ rights activism that has brought organizing muscle and policies like rent control to cities far beyond the high-cost coasts. Kansas City, Mo., is a leading example. With a population of 500,000, where the avenues are lined with brick buildings and side streets have modest homes with raised porches, the city offers little to suggest a renters’ revolution. Zillow’s home value index puts the typical Kansas City home at $230,000, or more than $100,000 below the national level.But with a steadily expanding economy driven by the logistics and medical industries, Kansas City has seen its rents increase 8.5 percent from a year ago, outpacing the rest of the nation, according to rental search site Apartment List. Over the past decade, Kansas City, like many places, has added a collection of high-end towers and apartments even as its stock of low-income housing has withered. The strain from rising rents, which landlords say they need to cover their costs, is creeping from people working in low-income service professions to middle-income teachers and city workers, part of a festering affordable housing crunch that spreads more widely across the nation each month.KC Tenants is one result. Pairing aggressive protests with traditional lobbying, the group exploded onto the political scene during the pandemic and has since become instrumental in passing tenant-friendly laws like an ordinance that gives renters a lawyer during eviction proceedings. It has also left a trail of embittered opponents who find the group’s tactics, such as protesting outside judges’ homes, ill-suited to what many residents describe as a cordial Midwestern town.“It’s a transition in politics for us,” said Mayor Lucas, a Democrat, who says he meets with the leaders of KC Tenants regularly, despite being a frequent subject of the group’s protests. “There is a new, almost tougher political edge, in the sense that there are people who are organizing and intrigued by politics and are very angry and are not coming out of the same institutions that built a lot of us.”America’s housing problem was simmering long before the pandemic, and tenant organizing is a well-established trade. What’s changed is the depth of the housing shortage and the suddenness with which Covid-19 and inflation have tipped smaller cities into an affordability crisis. This has opened the aperture for policies once deemed politically impossible, in a wider range of markets.Unlike homeowners, whose budget problems are blunted by a litany of tax breaks and fixed-rate mortgages, renters are mostly unprotected from rapidly rising prices. Once cities around the country passed widespread eviction moratoriums and emergency rent caps that were followed by tens of billions of dollars in pandemic rental assistance, it was only natural for housing activists to push for some of those temporary policies to be made permanent.Politically speaking, inflation has only helped. Nationally, rents are now 20 percent higher than they were in early 2020, creating an opportunity for renter-friendly laws to get baked into long-term policy.“People take for granted that rent is always going to go up,” said Tara Raghuveer, a co-founder of KC Tenants. “There’s so little political imagination about what could be different, and now I think that’s changing.”A hyper-focused worker who blends the rhetoric of a revolutionary with the efficiency of a chief executive, Ms. Raghuveer also directs the Homes Guarantee campaign, which works to create tenant unions around the country. She described KC Tenants as both a local movement and national experiment through which organizing ideas can be test-driven.Daily business updates The latest coverage of business, markets and the economy, sent by email each weekday. Get it sent to your inbox. “I think every national organizer should be accountable to a local base,” she said.During a three-day visit in which I hung around the office and shadowed meetings and protests, Ms. Raghuveer returned repeatedly to an idea that has become a refrain among tenant groups: the hope that growing resentment over housing costs is fostering a broad tenant identity that will inspire a wide range of renters to organize and vote with a shared interest. In the activist nomenclature, this is known as “tenants as a class.”
Bank of England chief warns of fresh interest rate hikeThe governor of the Bank of England has warned interest rates may need to rise by more than previously expected.
En estos casos absolutamente nadie dirá eso de “es el mercado amigo”. El trato a la propuesta, la comprensión con los afectados etc. por los medios de comunicación, estamentos, organizaciones, partidos políticos, instituciones etc será abismal en comparación con los inquilinos. Por este motivo no espero ningún cambio en el mercado inmobiliario, cuando vea que el discurso cambia y se considere a la vivienda básica un bien básico, y no un activo especulativo, entonces puede que empiece a pensar que las cosas pueden cambiar.
Por este motivo tengo dudas, no veo de momento esa depresión económica a pie de calle, sobretodo en destrucción de puestos de trabajo y turismo, ojo este último hemos pasado de 35 a 55/60 millones un dato muy importante para el inmobiliario junto al del empleo aunque sea de mierda, cada vez más estudiantes foráneos, más facilidades para residir y trabajar en España que a principios de siglo etc. La situación es diferente y ya vimos lo que pasó después de una depresión económica que nos dejó la cara del revés (Reburbujeo, y sobretodo rentismo mundial brutal) Crucemos los dedos para que esta vez sea de verdad y les pongan en su sitio, en caso contrario abróchense los cinturones.Cita de: Benzino Napaloni en Octubre 15, 2022, 14:48:37 pmSeñores, que la última vez hicieron falta tres años de crisis para que el personal empezase a claudicar. Y eso que fue una depresión económica que nos dejó la cara del revés.
Cita de: Negrule en Octubre 15, 2022, 12:33:50 pmEn estos casos absolutamente nadie dirá eso de “es el mercado amigo”. El trato a la propuesta, la comprensión con los afectados etc. por los medios de comunicación, estamentos, organizaciones, partidos políticos, instituciones etc será abismal en comparación con los inquilinos. Por este motivo no espero ningún cambio en el mercado inmobiliario, cuando vea que el discurso cambia y se considere a la vivienda básica un bien básico, y no un activo especulativo, entonces puede que empiece a pensar que las cosas pueden cambiar.Yo creo que es al revés. Ese tipo de cosas nunca jamás se dejarán de decir hasta que se vaya a tomar por saco el invento y sea demasiado obvio e imposible de ocultar.Cuando se caiga todo, será a pesar de las milongas que cuenten (¿por qué iban a parar?), no porque dejen de contarlas. Lo esperable es que de hecho redoblen esfuerzos cuando vaya peor la cosa. Más que nada, porque no debería hacer falta publicidad ni bombo de algo que hasta ahora se vendía por sí mismo a base de vox populi.