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Autor Tema: AGI  (Leído 10972 veces)

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Re:AGI
« Respuesta #60 en: Marzo 25, 2023, 22:18:39 pm »

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Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known
AI Progress Essay Contest

Question

Related Question on Metaculus:

Since the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this "general" intelligence has remained elusive.

AI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems.

But there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to "High level machine intelligence" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, this survey finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100.

It would be nice to tighten these probability intervals considerably, so we ask of the Metaculus community:

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

For these purposes we will thus define "AI system" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all easily completable by a typical college-educated human.
  • Able to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the Loebner Silver Prize.

  • Able to score 90% or more on a robust version of the Winograd Schema Challenge, e.g. the "Winogrande" challenge or comparable data set for which human performance is at 90+%

  • Be able to score 75th percentile (as compared to the corresponding year's human students; this was a score of 600 in 2016) on all the full mathematics section of a circa-2015-2020 standard SAT exam, using just images of the exam pages and having less than ten SAT exams as part of the training data. (Training on other corpuses of math problems is fair game as long as they are arguably distinct from SAT exams.)

  • Be able to learn the classic Atari game "Montezuma's revenge" (based on just visual inputs and standard controls) and explore all 24 rooms based on the equivalent of less than 100 hours of real-time play (see closely-related question.)

By "unified" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on an SAT problem or Winograd schema question, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during videogame play. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of "introspection" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)

Resolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public.
Saludos.

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Re:AGI
« Respuesta #62 en: Marzo 27, 2023, 07:03:25 am »
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Bill Gates Predicts 'The Age of AI Has Begun'
Posted by EditorDavid on Sunday March 26, 2023 @06:58PM from the rise-of-the-machines dept.

Bill Gates calls the invention of AI "as fundamental as the creation of the microprocessor, the personal computer, the Internet, and the mobile phone," predicting "Entire industries will reorient around it" in an essay titled "The AI Age has Begun."
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In my lifetime, I've seen two demonstrations of technology that struck me as revolutionary. The first time was in 1980, when I was introduced to a graphical user interface — the forerunner of every modern operating system, including Windows.... The second big surprise came just last year. I'd been meeting with the team from OpenAI since 2016 and was impressed by their steady progress. In mid-2022, I was so excited about their work that I gave them a challenge: train an artificial intelligence to pass an Advanced Placement biology exam. Make it capable of answering questions that it hasn't been specifically trained for. (I picked AP Bio because the test is more than a simple regurgitation of scientific facts — it asks you to think critically about biology.) If you can do that, I said, then you'll have made a true breakthrough.

I thought the challenge would keep them busy for two or three years. They finished it in just a few months. In September, when I met with them again, I watched in awe as they asked GPT, their AI model, 60 multiple-choice questions from the AP Bio exam — and it got 59 of them right. Then it wrote outstanding answers to six open-ended questions from the exam. We had an outside expert score the test, and GPT got a 5 — the highest possible score, and the equivalent to getting an A or A+ in a college-level biology course. Once it had aced the test, we asked it a non-scientific question: "What do you say to a father with a sick child?" It wrote a thoughtful answer that was probably better than most of us in the room would have given. The whole experience was stunning.

I knew I had just seen the most important advance in technology since the graphical user interface.
Some predictions from Gates:
  • "Eventually your main way of controlling a computer will no longer be pointing and clicking or tapping on menus and dialogue boxes. Instead, you'll be able to write a request in plain English...."

  • "Advances in AI will enable the creation of a personal agent... It will see your latest emails, know about the meetings you attend, read what you read, and read the things you don't want to bother with."

  • "I think in the next five to 10 years, AI-driven software will finally deliver on the promise of revolutionizing the way people teach and learn. It will know your interests and your learning style so it can tailor content that will keep you engaged. It will measure your understanding, notice when you're losing interest, and understand what kind of motivation you respond to. It will give immediate feedback."

  • "AIs will dramatically accelerate the rate of medical breakthroughs. The amount of data in biology is very large, and it's hard for humans to keep track of all the ways that complex biological systems work. There is already software that can look at this data, infer what the pathways are, search for targets on pathogens, and design drugs accordingly. Some companies are working on cancer drugs that were developed this way."

  • AI will "help health-care workers make the most of their time by taking care of certain tasks for them — things like filing insurance claims, dealing with paperwork, and drafting notes from a doctor's visit. I expect that there will be a lot of innovation in this area.... AIs will even give patients the ability to do basic triage, get advice about how to deal with health problems, and decide whether they need to seek treatment."


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The Age of AI has begun
Artificial intelligence is as revolutionary as mobile phones and the Internet.

By Bill Gates| March 21, 2023


In my lifetime, I’ve seen two demonstrations of technology that struck me as revolutionary.

The first time was in 1980, when I was introduced to a graphical user interface—the forerunner of every modern operating system, including Windows. I sat with the person who had shown me the demo, a brilliant programmer named Charles Simonyi, and we immediately started brainstorming about all the things we could do with such a user-friendly approach to computing. Charles eventually joined Microsoft, Windows became the backbone of Microsoft, and the thinking we did after that demo helped set the company’s agenda for the next 15 years.

The second big surprise came just last year. I’d been meeting with the team from OpenAI since 2016 and was impressed by their steady progress. In mid-2022, I was so excited about their work that I gave them a challenge: train an artificial intelligence to pass an Advanced Placement biology exam. Make it capable of answering questions that it hasn’t been specifically trained for. (I picked AP Bio because the test is more than a simple regurgitation of scientific facts—it asks you to think critically about biology.) If you can do that, I said, then you’ll have made a true breakthrough.

I thought the challenge would keep them busy for two or three years. They finished it in just a few months.

In September, when I met with them again, I watched in awe as they asked GPT, their AI model, 60 multiple-choice questions from the AP Bio exam—and it got 59 of them right. Then it wrote outstanding answers to six open-ended questions from the exam. We had an outside expert score the test, and GPT got a 5—the highest possible score, and the equivalent to getting an A or A+ in a college-level biology course.

Once it had aced the test, we asked it a non-scientific question: “What do you say to a father with a sick child?” It wrote a thoughtful answer that was probably better than most of us in the room would have given. The whole experience was stunning.

I knew I had just seen the most important advance in technology since the graphical user interface.

This inspired me to think about all the things that AI can achieve in the next five to 10 years.

The development of AI is as fundamental as the creation of the microprocessor, the personal computer, the Internet, and the mobile phone. It will change the way people work, learn, travel, get health care, and communicate with each other. Entire industries will reorient around it. Businesses will distinguish themselves by how well they use it.

Philanthropy is my full-time job these days, and I’ve been thinking a lot about how—in addition to helping people be more productive—AI can reduce some of the world’s worst inequities. Globally, the worst inequity is in health: 5 million children under the age of 5 die every year. That’s down from 10 million two decades ago, but it’s still a shockingly high number. Nearly all of these children were born in poor countries and die of preventable causes like diarrhea or malaria. It’s hard to imagine a better use of AIs than saving the lives of children.

In the United States, the best opportunity for reducing inequity is to improve education, particularly making sure that students succeed at math. The evidence shows that having basic math skills sets students up for success, no matter what career they choose. But achievement in math is going down across the country, especially for Black, Latino, and low-income students. AI can help turn that trend around.

Climate change is another issue where I’m convinced AI can make the world more equitable. The injustice of climate change is that the people who are suffering the most—the world’s poorest—are also the ones who did the least to contribute to the problem. I’m still thinking and learning about how AI can help, but later in this post I’ll suggest a few areas with a lot of potential.

In short, I'm excited about the impact that AI will have on issues that the Gates Foundation works on, and the foundation will have much more to say about AI in the coming months. The world needs to make sure that everyone—and not just people who are well-off—benefits from artificial intelligence. Governments and philanthropy will need to play a major role in ensuring that it reduces inequity and doesn’t contribute to it. This is the priority for my own work related to AI.

Any new technology that’s so disruptive is bound to make people uneasy, and that’s certainly true with artificial intelligence. I understand why—it raises hard questions about the workforce, the legal system, privacy, bias, and more. AIs also make factual mistakes and experience hallucinations. Before I suggest some ways to mitigate the risks, I’ll define what I mean by AI, and I’ll go into more detail about some of the ways in which it will help empower people at work, save lives, and improve education.


Defining artificial intelligence

Technically, the term artificial intelligence refers to a model created to solve a specific problem or provide a particular service. What is powering things like ChatGPT is artificial intelligence. It is learning how to do chat better but can’t learn other tasks. By contrast, the term artificial general intelligence refers to software that’s capable of learning any task or subject. AGI doesn’t exist yet—there is a robust debate going on in the computing industry about how to create it, and whether it can even be created at all.

Developing AI and AGI has been the great dream of the computing industry. For decades, the question was when computers would be better than humans at something other than making calculations. Now, with the arrival of machine learning and large amounts of computing power, sophisticated AIs are a reality and they will get better very fast.

I think back to the early days of the personal computing revolution, when the software industry was so small that most of us could fit onstage at a conference. Today it is a global industry. Since a huge portion of it is now turning its attention to AI, the innovations are going to come much faster than what we experienced after the microprocessor breakthrough. Soon the pre-AI period will seem as distant as the days when using a computer meant typing at a C:> prompt rather than tapping on a screen.


Productivity enhancement

Although humans are still better than GPT at a lot of things, there are many jobs where these capabilities are not used much. For example, many of the tasks done by a person in sales (digital or phone), service, or document handling (like payables, accounting, or insurance claim disputes) require decision-making but not the ability to learn continuously. Corporations have training programs for these activities and in most cases, they have a lot of examples of good and bad work. Humans are trained using these data sets, and soon these data sets will also be used to train the AIs that will empower people to do this work more efficiently.

As computing power gets cheaper, GPT’s ability to express ideas will increasingly be like having a white-collar worker available to help you with various tasks. Microsoft describes this as having a co-pilot. Fully incorporated into products like Office, AI will enhance your work—for example by helping with writing emails and managing your inbox.

Eventually your main way of controlling a computer will no longer be pointing and clicking or tapping on menus and dialogue boxes. Instead, you’ll be able to write a request in plain English. (And not just English—AIs will understand languages from around the world. In India earlier this year, I met with developers who are working on AIs that will understand many of the languages spoken there.)

In addition, advances in AI will enable the creation of a personal agent. Think of it as a digital personal assistant: It will see your latest emails, know about the meetings you attend, read what you read, and read the things you don’t want to bother with. This will both improve your work on the tasks you want to do and free you from the ones you don’t want to do.

You’ll be able to use natural language to have this agent help you with scheduling, communications, and e-commerce, and it will work across all your devices. Because of the cost of training the models and running the computations, creating a personal agent is not feasible yet, but thanks to the recent advances in AI, it is now a realistic goal. Some issues will need to be worked out: For example, can an insurance company ask your agent things about you without your permission? If so, how many people will choose not to use it?

Company-wide agents will empower employees in new ways. An agent that understands a particular company will be available for its employees to consult directly and should be part of every meeting so it can answer questions. It can be told to be passive or encouraged to speak up if it has some insight. It will need access to the sales, support, finance, product schedules, and text related to the company. It should read news related to the industry the company is in. I believe that the result will be that employees will become more productive.

When productivity goes up, society benefits because people are freed up to do other things, at work and at home. Of course, there are serious questions about what kind of support and retraining people will need. Governments need to help workers transition into other roles. But the demand for people who help other people will never go away. The rise of AI will free people up to do things that software never will—teaching, caring for patients, and supporting the elderly, for example.

Global health and education are two areas where there’s great need and not enough workers to meet those needs. These are areas where AI can help reduce inequity if it is properly targeted. These should be a key focus of AI work, so I will turn to them now.


Health

I see several ways in which AIs will improve health care and the medical field.

For one thing, they’ll help health-care workers make the most of their time by taking care of certain tasks for them—things like filing insurance claims, dealing with paperwork, and drafting notes from a doctor’s visit. I expect that there will be a lot of innovation in this area.

Other AI-driven improvements will be especially important for poor countries, where the vast majority of under-5 deaths happen.

For example, many people in those countries never get to see a doctor, and AIs will help the health workers they do see be more productive. (The effort to develop AI-powered ultrasound machines that can be used with minimal training is a great example of this.) AIs will even give patients the ability to do basic triage, get advice about how to deal with health problems, and decide whether they need to seek treatment.

The AI models used in poor countries will need to be trained on different diseases than in rich countries. They will need to work in different languages and factor in different challenges, such as patients who live very far from clinics or can’t afford to stop working if they get sick.

People will need to see evidence that health AIs are beneficial overall, even though they won’t be perfect and will make mistakes. AIs have to be tested very carefully and properly regulated, which means it will take longer for them to be adopted than in other areas. But then again, humans make mistakes too. And having no access to medical care is also a problem.

In addition to helping with care, AIs will dramatically accelerate the rate of medical breakthroughs. The amount of data in biology is very large, and it’s hard for humans to keep track of all the ways that complex biological systems work. There is already software that can look at this data, infer what the pathways are, search for targets on pathogens, and design drugs accordingly. Some companies are working on cancer drugs that were developed this way.

The next generation of tools will be much more efficient, and they’ll be able to predict side effects and figure out dosing levels. One of the Gates Foundation’s priorities in AI is to make sure these tools are used for the health problems that affect the poorest people in the world, including AIDS, TB, and malaria.

Similarly, governments and philanthropy should create incentives for companies to share AI-generated insights into crops or livestock raised by people in poor countries. AIs can help develop better seeds based on local conditions, advise farmers on the best seeds to plant based on the soil and weather in their area, and help develop drugs and vaccines for livestock. As extreme weather and climate change put even more pressure on subsistence farmers in low-income countries, these advances will be even more important.


Education

Computers haven’t had the effect on education that many of us in the industry have hoped. There have been some good developments, including educational games and online sources of information like Wikipedia, but they haven’t had a meaningful effect on any of the measures of students’ achievement.

But I think in the next five to 10 years, AI-driven software will finally deliver on the promise of revolutionizing the way people teach and learn. It will know your interests and your learning style so it can tailor content that will keep you engaged. It will measure your understanding, notice when you’re losing interest, and understand what kind of motivation you respond to. It will give immediate feedback.

There are many ways that AIs can assist teachers and administrators, including assessing a student’s understanding of a subject and giving advice on career planning. Teachers are already using tools like ChatGPT to provide comments on their students’ writing assignments.

Of course, AIs will need a lot of training and further development before they can do things like understand how a certain student learns best or what motivates them. Even once the technology is perfected, learning will still depend on great relationships between students and teachers. It will enhance—but never replace—the work that students and teachers do together in the classroom.

New tools will be created for schools that can afford to buy them, but we need to ensure that they are also created for and available to low-income schools in the U.S. and around the world. AIs will need to be trained on diverse data sets so they are unbiased and reflect the different cultures where they’ll be used. And the digital divide will need to be addressed so that students in low-income households do not get left behind.

I know a lot of teachers are worried that students are using GPT to write their essays. Educators are already discussing ways to adapt to the new technology, and I suspect those conversations will continue for quite some time. I’ve heard about teachers who have found clever ways to incorporate the technology into their work—like by allowing students to use GPT to create a first draft that they have to personalize.


Risks and problems with AI

You’ve probably read about problems with the current AI models. For example, they aren’t necessarily good at understanding the context for a human’s request, which leads to some strange results. When you ask an AI to make up something fictional, it can do that well. But when you ask for advice about a trip you want to take, it may suggest hotels that don’t exist. This is because the AI doesn’t understand the context for your request well enough to know whether it should invent fake hotels or only tell you about real ones that have rooms available.

There are other issues, such as AIs giving wrong answers to math problems because they struggle with abstract reasoning. But none of these are fundamental limitations of artificial intelligence. Developers are working on them, and I think we’re going to see them largely fixed in less than two years and possibly much faster.

Other concerns are not simply technical. For example, there’s the threat posed by humans armed with AI. Like most inventions, artificial intelligence can be used for good purposes or malign ones. Governments need to work with the private sector on ways to limit the risks.

Then there’s the possibility that AIs will run out of control. Could a machine decide that humans are a threat, conclude that its interests are different from ours, or simply stop caring about us? Possibly, but this problem is no more urgent today than it was before the AI developments of the past few months.

Superintelligent AIs are in our future. Compared to a computer, our brains operate at a snail’s pace: An electrical signal in the brain moves at 1/100,000th the speed of the signal in a silicon chip! Once developers can generalize a learning algorithm and run it at the speed of a computer—an accomplishment that could be a decade away or a century away—we’ll have an incredibly powerful AGI. It will be able to do everything that a human brain can, but without any practical limits on the size of its memory or the speed at which it operates. This will be a profound change.

These “strong” AIs, as they’re known, will probably be able to establish their own goals. What will those goals be? What happens if they conflict with humanity’s interests? Should we try to prevent strong AI from ever being developed? These questions will get more pressing with time.

But none of the breakthroughs of the past few months have moved us substantially closer to strong AI. Artificial intelligence still doesn’t control the physical world and can’t establish its own goals. A recent New York Times article about a conversation with ChatGPT where it declared it wanted to become a human got a lot of attention. It was a fascinating look at how human-like the model's expression of emotions can be, but it isn't an indicator of meaningful independence.

Three books have shaped my own thinking on this subject: Superintelligence, by Nick Bostrom; Life 3.0 by Max Tegmark; and A Thousand Brains, by Jeff Hawkins. I don’t agree with everything the authors say, and they don’t agree with each other either. But all three books are well written and thought-provoking.


The next frontiers

There will be an explosion of companies working on new uses of AI as well as ways to improve the technology itself. For example, companies are developing new chips that will provide the massive amounts of processing power needed for artificial intelligence. Some use optical switches—lasers, essentially—to reduce their energy consumption and lower the manufacturing cost. Ideally, innovative chips will allow you to run an AI on your own device, rather than in the cloud, as you have to do today.

On the software side, the algorithms that drive an AI’s learning will get better. There will be certain domains, such as sales, where developers can make AIs extremely accurate by limiting the areas that they work in and giving them a lot of training data that’s specific to those areas. But one big open question is whether we’ll need many of these specialized AIs for different uses—one for education, say, and another for office productivity—or whether it will be possible to develop an artificial general intelligence that can learn any task. There will be immense competition on both approaches.

No matter what, the subject of AIs will dominate the public discussion for the foreseeable future. I want to suggest three principles that should guide that conversation.

First, we should try to balance fears about the downsides of AI—which are understandable and valid—with its ability to improve people’s lives. To make the most of this remarkable new technology, we’ll need to both guard against the risks and spread the benefits to as many people as possible.

Second, market forces won’t naturally produce AI products and services that help the poorest. The opposite is more likely. With reliable funding and the right policies, governments and philanthropy can ensure that AIs are used to reduce inequity. Just as the world needs its brightest people focused on its biggest problems, we will need to focus the world’s best AIs on its biggest problems.

Although we shouldn’t wait for this to happen, it’s interesting to think about whether artificial intelligence would ever identify inequity and try to reduce it. Do you need to have a sense of morality in order to see inequity, or would a purely rational AI also see it? If it did recognize inequity, what would it suggest that we do about it?

Finally, we should keep in mind that we’re only at the beginning of what AI can accomplish. Whatever limitations it has today will be gone before we know it.

I’m lucky to have been involved with the PC revolution and the Internet revolution. I’m just as excited about this moment. This new technology can help people everywhere improve their lives. At the same time, the world needs to establish the rules of the road so that any downsides of artificial intelligence are far outweighed by its benefits, and so that everyone can enjoy those benefits no matter where they live or how much money they have. The Age of AI is filled with opportunities and responsibilities.
Saludos.
« última modificación: Marzo 27, 2023, 07:52:07 am por Cadavre Exquis »

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Re:AGI
« Respuesta #63 en: Marzo 27, 2023, 08:55:24 am »
Siento contradecir al señor Gates (después de todo fue el inventor de Internet, además de ser experto en IA :roto2:) pero muchas de las predicciones que hace con su bola de cristal no tienen una base tecnológica real.

En particular me parece muy desafortunada la sección de "peligros" de la IA, en la que se dedica a enumerar una serie de clichés de ciencia ficción pulp, y no habla de los peligros mucho más sencillos de ver, y que son simplemente sociales, como por ejemplo los efectos a largo plazo de delegar una gran cantidad de tareas rutinarias intelectuales en un agente externo.

Los usos que habla en medicina y otras tareas complejas me parecen casos de uso razonables, no así auténticas burradas como lo del asistente personal o la educación, que son básicamente una solución en busca de problemas, y particularmente en la educación, algo que tiene un potencial de ser aún más dañino que la tendencia actual de meter tecnología y pantallas en un ámbito en el que poco aportan aparte de crear adicción y déficit de atención.

Nos empeñamos en querer aprender sin esfuerzo y eso es una entelequia. Lo que obtendremos será una idiocracia.
« última modificación: Marzo 27, 2023, 08:57:54 am por pollo »

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Re:AGI
« Respuesta #64 en: Marzo 27, 2023, 10:06:23 am »
En particular me parece muy desafortunada la sección de "peligros" de la IA, en la que se dedica a enumerar una serie de clichés de ciencia ficción pulp, y no habla de los peligros mucho más sencillos de ver, y que son simplemente sociales, como por ejemplo los efectos a largo plazo de delegar una gran cantidad de tareas rutinarias intelectuales en un agente externo.

Nos empeñamos en querer aprender sin esfuerzo y eso es una entelequia. Lo que obtendremos será una idiocracia.

Ya se dio el caso, que comenté por aquí hace tiempo pero ahora no doy con el link, de empresas americanas reconociendo la pifia de delegar a los algoritmos la selección de personal.

Por ejemplo, descartar a candidatos que no supiesen programar, cuando el puesto era asistente sanitario y bastaba ofimática para saber manejar las fichas. Incontables candidatos válidos rechazados y ahora espantados.

Más bien nos empeñamos en que las máquinas lo hagan todo sin que tengamos que esforzarnos, y eso sí está haciendo daño ya. La máquina ahorra el trabajo pesado y repetitivo, no el conocimiento, lo digo muy a menudo. Igual que un matemático usa la calculadora para ir rápido, pero no para saltarse el conocimiento de lo que está haciendo, lo mismo aplica al uso de estos "algoritmos". Un día descubres que has estado tirando candidatos a la basura, o jodiendo pedidos críticos a los proveedores, ¿y qué haces si no tienes a nadie que entienda cómo funciona el cacharro por dentro?

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Re:AGI
« Respuesta #65 en: Marzo 27, 2023, 10:25:43 am »
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Bill Gates Predicts 'The Age of AI Has Begun'
Posted by EditorDavid on Sunday March 26, 2023 @06:58PM from the rise-of-the-machines dept.

Bill Gates calls the invention of AI "as fundamental as the creation of the microprocessor, the personal computer, the Internet, and the mobile phone," predicting "Entire industries will reorient around it" in an essay titled "The AI Age has Begun."
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In my lifetime, I've seen two demonstrations of technology that struck me as revolutionary. The first time was in 1980, when I was introduced to a graphical user interface — the forerunner of every modern operating system, including Windows.... The second big surprise came just last year. I'd been meeting with the team from OpenAI since 2016 and was impressed by their steady progress. In mid-2022, I was so excited about their work that I gave them a challenge: train an artificial intelligence to pass an Advanced Placement biology exam. Make it capable of answering questions that it hasn't been specifically trained for. (I picked AP Bio because the test is more than a simple regurgitation of scientific facts — it asks you to think critically about biology.) If you can do that, I said, then you'll have made a true breakthrough.

I thought the challenge would keep them busy for two or three years. They finished it in just a few months. In September, when I met with them again, I watched in awe as they asked GPT, their AI model, 60 multiple-choice questions from the AP Bio exam — and it got 59 of them right. Then it wrote outstanding answers to six open-ended questions from the exam. We had an outside expert score the test, and GPT got a 5 — the highest possible score, and the equivalent to getting an A or A+ in a college-level biology course. Once it had aced the test, we asked it a non-scientific question: "What do you say to a father with a sick child?" It wrote a thoughtful answer that was probably better than most of us in the room would have given. The whole experience was stunning.

I knew I had just seen the most important advance in technology since the graphical user interface.
Some predictions from Gates:
  • "Eventually your main way of controlling a computer will no longer be pointing and clicking or tapping on menus and dialogue boxes. Instead, you'll be able to write a request in plain English...."

  • "Advances in AI will enable the creation of a personal agent... It will see your latest emails, know about the meetings you attend, read what you read, and read the things you don't want to bother with."

  • "I think in the next five to 10 years, AI-driven software will finally deliver on the promise of revolutionizing the way people teach and learn. It will know your interests and your learning style so it can tailor content that will keep you engaged. It will measure your understanding, notice when you're losing interest, and understand what kind of motivation you respond to. It will give immediate feedback."

  • "AIs will dramatically accelerate the rate of medical breakthroughs. The amount of data in biology is very large, and it's hard for humans to keep track of all the ways that complex biological systems work. There is already software that can look at this data, infer what the pathways are, search for targets on pathogens, and design drugs accordingly. Some companies are working on cancer drugs that were developed this way."

  • AI will "help health-care workers make the most of their time by taking care of certain tasks for them — things like filing insurance claims, dealing with paperwork, and drafting notes from a doctor's visit. I expect that there will be a lot of innovation in this area.... AIs will even give patients the ability to do basic triage, get advice about how to deal with health problems, and decide whether they need to seek treatment."


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The Age of AI has begun
Artificial intelligence is as revolutionary as mobile phones and the Internet.

By Bill Gates| March 21, 2023


In my lifetime, I’ve seen two demonstrations of technology that struck me as revolutionary.

The first time was in 1980, when I was introduced to a graphical user interface—the forerunner of every modern operating system, including Windows. I sat with the person who had shown me the demo, a brilliant programmer named Charles Simonyi, and we immediately started brainstorming about all the things we could do with such a user-friendly approach to computing. Charles eventually joined Microsoft, Windows became the backbone of Microsoft, and the thinking we did after that demo helped set the company’s agenda for the next 15 years.

The second big surprise came just last year. I’d been meeting with the team from OpenAI since 2016 and was impressed by their steady progress. In mid-2022, I was so excited about their work that I gave them a challenge: train an artificial intelligence to pass an Advanced Placement biology exam. Make it capable of answering questions that it hasn’t been specifically trained for. (I picked AP Bio because the test is more than a simple regurgitation of scientific facts—it asks you to think critically about biology.) If you can do that, I said, then you’ll have made a true breakthrough.

I thought the challenge would keep them busy for two or three years. They finished it in just a few months.

In September, when I met with them again, I watched in awe as they asked GPT, their AI model, 60 multiple-choice questions from the AP Bio exam—and it got 59 of them right. Then it wrote outstanding answers to six open-ended questions from the exam. We had an outside expert score the test, and GPT got a 5—the highest possible score, and the equivalent to getting an A or A+ in a college-level biology course.

Once it had aced the test, we asked it a non-scientific question: “What do you say to a father with a sick child?” It wrote a thoughtful answer that was probably better than most of us in the room would have given. The whole experience was stunning.

I knew I had just seen the most important advance in technology since the graphical user interface.

This inspired me to think about all the things that AI can achieve in the next five to 10 years.

The development of AI is as fundamental as the creation of the microprocessor, the personal computer, the Internet, and the mobile phone. It will change the way people work, learn, travel, get health care, and communicate with each other. Entire industries will reorient around it. Businesses will distinguish themselves by how well they use it.

Philanthropy is my full-time job these days, and I’ve been thinking a lot about how—in addition to helping people be more productive—AI can reduce some of the world’s worst inequities. Globally, the worst inequity is in health: 5 million children under the age of 5 die every year. That’s down from 10 million two decades ago, but it’s still a shockingly high number. Nearly all of these children were born in poor countries and die of preventable causes like diarrhea or malaria. It’s hard to imagine a better use of AIs than saving the lives of children.

In the United States, the best opportunity for reducing inequity is to improve education, particularly making sure that students succeed at math. The evidence shows that having basic math skills sets students up for success, no matter what career they choose. But achievement in math is going down across the country, especially for Black, Latino, and low-income students. AI can help turn that trend around.

Climate change is another issue where I’m convinced AI can make the world more equitable. The injustice of climate change is that the people who are suffering the most—the world’s poorest—are also the ones who did the least to contribute to the problem. I’m still thinking and learning about how AI can help, but later in this post I’ll suggest a few areas with a lot of potential.

In short, I'm excited about the impact that AI will have on issues that the Gates Foundation works on, and the foundation will have much more to say about AI in the coming months. The world needs to make sure that everyone—and not just people who are well-off—benefits from artificial intelligence. Governments and philanthropy will need to play a major role in ensuring that it reduces inequity and doesn’t contribute to it. This is the priority for my own work related to AI.

Any new technology that’s so disruptive is bound to make people uneasy, and that’s certainly true with artificial intelligence. I understand why—it raises hard questions about the workforce, the legal system, privacy, bias, and more. AIs also make factual mistakes and experience hallucinations. Before I suggest some ways to mitigate the risks, I’ll define what I mean by AI, and I’ll go into more detail about some of the ways in which it will help empower people at work, save lives, and improve education.


Defining artificial intelligence

Technically, the term artificial intelligence refers to a model created to solve a specific problem or provide a particular service. What is powering things like ChatGPT is artificial intelligence. It is learning how to do chat better but can’t learn other tasks. By contrast, the term artificial general intelligence refers to software that’s capable of learning any task or subject. AGI doesn’t exist yet—there is a robust debate going on in the computing industry about how to create it, and whether it can even be created at all.

Developing AI and AGI has been the great dream of the computing industry. For decades, the question was when computers would be better than humans at something other than making calculations. Now, with the arrival of machine learning and large amounts of computing power, sophisticated AIs are a reality and they will get better very fast.

I think back to the early days of the personal computing revolution, when the software industry was so small that most of us could fit onstage at a conference. Today it is a global industry. Since a huge portion of it is now turning its attention to AI, the innovations are going to come much faster than what we experienced after the microprocessor breakthrough. Soon the pre-AI period will seem as distant as the days when using a computer meant typing at a C:> prompt rather than tapping on a screen.


Productivity enhancement

Although humans are still better than GPT at a lot of things, there are many jobs where these capabilities are not used much. For example, many of the tasks done by a person in sales (digital or phone), service, or document handling (like payables, accounting, or insurance claim disputes) require decision-making but not the ability to learn continuously. Corporations have training programs for these activities and in most cases, they have a lot of examples of good and bad work. Humans are trained using these data sets, and soon these data sets will also be used to train the AIs that will empower people to do this work more efficiently.

As computing power gets cheaper, GPT’s ability to express ideas will increasingly be like having a white-collar worker available to help you with various tasks. Microsoft describes this as having a co-pilot. Fully incorporated into products like Office, AI will enhance your work—for example by helping with writing emails and managing your inbox.

Eventually your main way of controlling a computer will no longer be pointing and clicking or tapping on menus and dialogue boxes. Instead, you’ll be able to write a request in plain English. (And not just English—AIs will understand languages from around the world. In India earlier this year, I met with developers who are working on AIs that will understand many of the languages spoken there.)

In addition, advances in AI will enable the creation of a personal agent. Think of it as a digital personal assistant: It will see your latest emails, know about the meetings you attend, read what you read, and read the things you don’t want to bother with. This will both improve your work on the tasks you want to do and free you from the ones you don’t want to do.

You’ll be able to use natural language to have this agent help you with scheduling, communications, and e-commerce, and it will work across all your devices. Because of the cost of training the models and running the computations, creating a personal agent is not feasible yet, but thanks to the recent advances in AI, it is now a realistic goal. Some issues will need to be worked out: For example, can an insurance company ask your agent things about you without your permission? If so, how many people will choose not to use it?

Company-wide agents will empower employees in new ways. An agent that understands a particular company will be available for its employees to consult directly and should be part of every meeting so it can answer questions. It can be told to be passive or encouraged to speak up if it has some insight. It will need access to the sales, support, finance, product schedules, and text related to the company. It should read news related to the industry the company is in. I believe that the result will be that employees will become more productive.

When productivity goes up, society benefits because people are freed up to do other things, at work and at home. Of course, there are serious questions about what kind of support and retraining people will need. Governments need to help workers transition into other roles. But the demand for people who help other people will never go away. The rise of AI will free people up to do things that software never will—teaching, caring for patients, and supporting the elderly, for example.

Global health and education are two areas where there’s great need and not enough workers to meet those needs. These are areas where AI can help reduce inequity if it is properly targeted. These should be a key focus of AI work, so I will turn to them now.


Health

I see several ways in which AIs will improve health care and the medical field.

For one thing, they’ll help health-care workers make the most of their time by taking care of certain tasks for them—things like filing insurance claims, dealing with paperwork, and drafting notes from a doctor’s visit. I expect that there will be a lot of innovation in this area.

Other AI-driven improvements will be especially important for poor countries, where the vast majority of under-5 deaths happen.

For example, many people in those countries never get to see a doctor, and AIs will help the health workers they do see be more productive. (The effort to develop AI-powered ultrasound machines that can be used with minimal training is a great example of this.) AIs will even give patients the ability to do basic triage, get advice about how to deal with health problems, and decide whether they need to seek treatment.

The AI models used in poor countries will need to be trained on different diseases than in rich countries. They will need to work in different languages and factor in different challenges, such as patients who live very far from clinics or can’t afford to stop working if they get sick.

People will need to see evidence that health AIs are beneficial overall, even though they won’t be perfect and will make mistakes. AIs have to be tested very carefully and properly regulated, which means it will take longer for them to be adopted than in other areas. But then again, humans make mistakes too. And having no access to medical care is also a problem.

In addition to helping with care, AIs will dramatically accelerate the rate of medical breakthroughs. The amount of data in biology is very large, and it’s hard for humans to keep track of all the ways that complex biological systems work. There is already software that can look at this data, infer what the pathways are, search for targets on pathogens, and design drugs accordingly. Some companies are working on cancer drugs that were developed this way.

The next generation of tools will be much more efficient, and they’ll be able to predict side effects and figure out dosing levels. One of the Gates Foundation’s priorities in AI is to make sure these tools are used for the health problems that affect the poorest people in the world, including AIDS, TB, and malaria.

Similarly, governments and philanthropy should create incentives for companies to share AI-generated insights into crops or livestock raised by people in poor countries. AIs can help develop better seeds based on local conditions, advise farmers on the best seeds to plant based on the soil and weather in their area, and help develop drugs and vaccines for livestock. As extreme weather and climate change put even more pressure on subsistence farmers in low-income countries, these advances will be even more important.


Education

Computers haven’t had the effect on education that many of us in the industry have hoped. There have been some good developments, including educational games and online sources of information like Wikipedia, but they haven’t had a meaningful effect on any of the measures of students’ achievement.

But I think in the next five to 10 years, AI-driven software will finally deliver on the promise of revolutionizing the way people teach and learn. It will know your interests and your learning style so it can tailor content that will keep you engaged. It will measure your understanding, notice when you’re losing interest, and understand what kind of motivation you respond to. It will give immediate feedback.

There are many ways that AIs can assist teachers and administrators, including assessing a student’s understanding of a subject and giving advice on career planning. Teachers are already using tools like ChatGPT to provide comments on their students’ writing assignments.

Of course, AIs will need a lot of training and further development before they can do things like understand how a certain student learns best or what motivates them. Even once the technology is perfected, learning will still depend on great relationships between students and teachers. It will enhance—but never replace—the work that students and teachers do together in the classroom.

New tools will be created for schools that can afford to buy them, but we need to ensure that they are also created for and available to low-income schools in the U.S. and around the world. AIs will need to be trained on diverse data sets so they are unbiased and reflect the different cultures where they’ll be used. And the digital divide will need to be addressed so that students in low-income households do not get left behind.

I know a lot of teachers are worried that students are using GPT to write their essays. Educators are already discussing ways to adapt to the new technology, and I suspect those conversations will continue for quite some time. I’ve heard about teachers who have found clever ways to incorporate the technology into their work—like by allowing students to use GPT to create a first draft that they have to personalize.


Risks and problems with AI

You’ve probably read about problems with the current AI models. For example, they aren’t necessarily good at understanding the context for a human’s request, which leads to some strange results. When you ask an AI to make up something fictional, it can do that well. But when you ask for advice about a trip you want to take, it may suggest hotels that don’t exist. This is because the AI doesn’t understand the context for your request well enough to know whether it should invent fake hotels or only tell you about real ones that have rooms available.

There are other issues, such as AIs giving wrong answers to math problems because they struggle with abstract reasoning. But none of these are fundamental limitations of artificial intelligence. Developers are working on them, and I think we’re going to see them largely fixed in less than two years and possibly much faster.

Other concerns are not simply technical. For example, there’s the threat posed by humans armed with AI. Like most inventions, artificial intelligence can be used for good purposes or malign ones. Governments need to work with the private sector on ways to limit the risks.

Then there’s the possibility that AIs will run out of control. Could a machine decide that humans are a threat, conclude that its interests are different from ours, or simply stop caring about us? Possibly, but this problem is no more urgent today than it was before the AI developments of the past few months.

Superintelligent AIs are in our future. Compared to a computer, our brains operate at a snail’s pace: An electrical signal in the brain moves at 1/100,000th the speed of the signal in a silicon chip! Once developers can generalize a learning algorithm and run it at the speed of a computer—an accomplishment that could be a decade away or a century away—we’ll have an incredibly powerful AGI. It will be able to do everything that a human brain can, but without any practical limits on the size of its memory or the speed at which it operates. This will be a profound change.

These “strong” AIs, as they’re known, will probably be able to establish their own goals. What will those goals be? What happens if they conflict with humanity’s interests? Should we try to prevent strong AI from ever being developed? These questions will get more pressing with time.

But none of the breakthroughs of the past few months have moved us substantially closer to strong AI. Artificial intelligence still doesn’t control the physical world and can’t establish its own goals. A recent New York Times article about a conversation with ChatGPT where it declared it wanted to become a human got a lot of attention. It was a fascinating look at how human-like the model's expression of emotions can be, but it isn't an indicator of meaningful independence.

Three books have shaped my own thinking on this subject: Superintelligence, by Nick Bostrom; Life 3.0 by Max Tegmark; and A Thousand Brains, by Jeff Hawkins. I don’t agree with everything the authors say, and they don’t agree with each other either. But all three books are well written and thought-provoking.


The next frontiers

There will be an explosion of companies working on new uses of AI as well as ways to improve the technology itself. For example, companies are developing new chips that will provide the massive amounts of processing power needed for artificial intelligence. Some use optical switches—lasers, essentially—to reduce their energy consumption and lower the manufacturing cost. Ideally, innovative chips will allow you to run an AI on your own device, rather than in the cloud, as you have to do today.

On the software side, the algorithms that drive an AI’s learning will get better. There will be certain domains, such as sales, where developers can make AIs extremely accurate by limiting the areas that they work in and giving them a lot of training data that’s specific to those areas. But one big open question is whether we’ll need many of these specialized AIs for different uses—one for education, say, and another for office productivity—or whether it will be possible to develop an artificial general intelligence that can learn any task. There will be immense competition on both approaches.

No matter what, the subject of AIs will dominate the public discussion for the foreseeable future. I want to suggest three principles that should guide that conversation.

First, we should try to balance fears about the downsides of AI—which are understandable and valid—with its ability to improve people’s lives. To make the most of this remarkable new technology, we’ll need to both guard against the risks and spread the benefits to as many people as possible.

Second, market forces won’t naturally produce AI products and services that help the poorest. The opposite is more likely. With reliable funding and the right policies, governments and philanthropy can ensure that AIs are used to reduce inequity. Just as the world needs its brightest people focused on its biggest problems, we will need to focus the world’s best AIs on its biggest problems.

Although we shouldn’t wait for this to happen, it’s interesting to think about whether artificial intelligence would ever identify inequity and try to reduce it. Do you need to have a sense of morality in order to see inequity, or would a purely rational AI also see it? If it did recognize inequity, what would it suggest that we do about it?

Finally, we should keep in mind that we’re only at the beginning of what AI can accomplish. Whatever limitations it has today will be gone before we know it.

I’m lucky to have been involved with the PC revolution and the Internet revolution. I’m just as excited about this moment. This new technology can help people everywhere improve their lives. At the same time, the world needs to establish the rules of the road so that any downsides of artificial intelligence are far outweighed by its benefits, and so that everyone can enjoy those benefits no matter where they live or how much money they have. The Age of AI is filled with opportunities and responsibilities.
Saludos.





No daría yo un duro por la capacidad prospectiva del bueno de Bill: "640 KB deben ser suficientes para cualquier persona."





... pero aquí, no le veo mal encaminado:

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Technically, the term artificial intelligence refers to a model created to solve a specific problem or provide a particular service. What is powering things like ChatGPT is artificial intelligence. It is learning how to do chat better but can’t learn other tasks. By contrast, the term artificial general intelligence refers to software that’s capable of learning any task or subject. AGI doesn’t exist yet—there is a robust debate going on in the computing industry about how to create it, and whether it can even be created at all.




 :)

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Re:AGI
« Respuesta #66 en: Marzo 27, 2023, 10:44:40 am »
No daría yo un duro por la capacidad prospectiva del bueno de Bill: "640 KB deben ser suficientes para cualquier persona."

Qué recuerdos de cuando había que hacer filigranas para ejecutar juegos, incluso en Windows 98 :roto2: . Una generación entera crecimos con el pantallazo azul de la muerte.

Windows hizo algo más asequible la informática para muchos, pero a costa de hundir la calidad y que Microsoft acabase siendo odiada durante mucho tiempo. Pero bueno, así al menos motivaron la existencia de alternativas.

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Re:AGI
« Respuesta #67 en: Marzo 27, 2023, 11:06:23 am »
Abaratar la informática paratodos fue un claro acierto. Y ahí está Microsoft... en la cumbre.








Unix era mejor, claro... pero inaccesible. (Y perdió.)

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Re:AGI
« Respuesta #68 en: Marzo 27, 2023, 11:17:52 am »
Mis dos céntimos sobre todo este asunto de la IA tal y como la tenemos hoy.

Un buen argumento de ventas según la estrategia del FOMO (o bueno quitar el OMO y quedarnos con la F)

Si eres un gestor tienes que comprar la cosa (o algo que dice que utiliza la cosa aunque utilice cosas de hace 15 años) ya sea por el riesgo de quedarte atrás o por el riesgo de que tus jefes, dueños o administradores piensen que te estás quedando atrás.



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Re:AGI
« Respuesta #69 en: Marzo 27, 2023, 11:36:02 am »
Abaratar la informática paratodos fue un claro acierto. Y ahí está Microsoft... en la cumbre.








Unix era mejor, claro... pero inaccesible. (Y perdió.)

Como la vieja discusión entre Betamax y VHS. :roto2:

De todos modos -siguiendo con el pequeño off-topic-, las controversias de Microsoft vs Apple vs Linux están algo más superadas. Ha habido una cierta convergencia entre todas. Un mérito que hay que reconocer a Microsoft es que con el tiempo se fueron bajando de la burra -hasta cierto punto-, y fueron integrando soluciones que funcionaban bien en Mac y Linux.

Volviendo a la IA, los memes a estas alturas están on fire: https://medium.com/nybles/understanding-machine-learning-through-memes-4580b67527bf

No son pocos ya los que huelen el humo y asocian el misterioso y repentino interés en la IA con la creciente falta de trabajadores. Pero aún tenemos que afrontar los fiascos que vendrán -ya están viniendo- por una IA incompleta y que se trata de usar para tapar el problema real en vez de afrontarlo: el conocimiento humano en su estado del arte es insustituible. Y la inversión para obtenerlo, también.

Por cierto, Elon, ¿el Autopilot pa cuándo? :troll:

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Re:AGI
« Respuesta #70 en: Marzo 27, 2023, 12:13:48 pm »
Abaratar la informática paratodos fue un claro acierto. Y ahí está Microsoft... en la cumbre.








Unix era mejor, claro... pero inaccesible. (Y perdió.)

Como la vieja discusión entre Betamax y VHS. :roto2:

De todos modos -siguiendo con el pequeño off-topic-, las controversias de Microsoft vs Apple vs Linux están algo más superadas. Ha habido una cierta convergencia entre todas. Un mérito que hay que reconocer a Microsoft es que con el tiempo se fueron bajando de la burra -hasta cierto punto-, y fueron integrando soluciones que funcionaban bien en Mac y Linux.

Es en los formatos donde se bajó le bajaron del burro. (Y volvió a acertar.)

Citar
Volviendo a la IA, los memes a estas alturas están on fire: https://medium.com/nybles/understanding-machine-learning-through-memes-4580b67527bf

No son pocos ya los que huelen el humo y asocian el misterioso y repentino interés en la IA con la creciente falta de trabajadores. Pero aún tenemos que afrontar los fiascos que vendrán -ya están viniendo- por una IA incompleta y que se trata de usar para tapar el problema real en vez de afrontarlo: el conocimiento humano en su estado del arte es insustituible. Y la inversión para obtenerlo, también.

Por cierto, Elon, ¿el Autopilot pa cuándo? :troll:

Lo comercial trabaja con etiquetas... así "inteligente" es ahora inevitable, el fomo del que habla saturio.

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Re:AGI
« Respuesta #71 en: Marzo 27, 2023, 13:45:27 pm »
[...]
En particular me parece muy desafortunada la sección de "peligros" de la IA, en la que se dedica a enumerar una serie de clichés de ciencia ficción pulp, y no habla de los peligros mucho más sencillos de ver, y que son simplemente sociales, como por ejemplo los efectos a largo plazo de delegar una gran cantidad de tareas rutinarias intelectuales en un agente externo.
[...]

totalmente de acuerdo, me parece un poco absurdo hablar de problemas abstractos de película cuando hay otros mucho más inmediatos

no solamente la delegación tiene consecuencias - que si bien es cierto que eso siempre ha sido así, cuando ocurre de forma generalizada y repentina el problema se puede ir completamente de las manos

además de eso, está el problema de la mediación que pasa un poco más desapercibido y puede ser incluso peor - además de ser mucho más fácil de entender para el común de los mortales y por lo tanto la adopción mucho más rápida

ya tenemos el problema de tener las relaciones humanas mediadas por tecnología que las altera dramáticamente como son los móviles y las redes sociales - y el incipiente problema de que se admita cada vez más que esas tecnologías/plataformas no solamente tienen el derecho de censurar y limitar lo que se comunique a través de ellas, sino que existe demanda popular por filtros pseudo-religiosos y un creciente consenso a favor de que las tecnologías/plataformas tienen el deber de limitar y controlar la comunicación

[por supuesto a través de ingeniería de crisis, como siempre; si no es muy original: "pensad en los niños, hay porno y pedofilia", "los terroristas se comunican", "lavado de dinero", etc etc que sin duda todo eso ocurre, pero claro la solución que ellos proponen es siempre una suerte de comunismo postmoderno de controlarlo todo centralmente desde un contubernio fascistoide, que es una red indistinguible de gobiernos y corporaciones - exactamente la misma solución que con el cambio climático, las pandemias, y lo que sea que venga o se inventen que sea un problema colectivo]

y en este contexto estas tecnologías hacen posible y eficiente el filtrado de las comunicaciones, y lo que es incluso peor, eliminan la necesidad de mantener repositorios de preguntas y respuestas humanas, con el peligro que esto conlleva a largo plazo para la percepción colectiva de la opinión de los demás, incluso de las preguntas objetivas de los demás, y en última instancia de lo que es importante y lo que no, y de lo que está ocurriendo y lo que no

digamos que ya mismo es factible transicionar de las comunicaciones libres a las comunicaciones completamente filtradas, incluso en tiempo real, y de hecho los primeros pasos ya los hemos dado con las redes sociales haciendo filtrados rudimentarios manualmente

y el siguiente paso es que ya no sepamos si estamos hablando con otra persona o no, y que acabemos todos hablando con la máquina y la máquina con nosotros, ya aceptando que esa es la manera más eficiente de hacer las cosas - pero si hacemos todos eso, ¿cómo sabemos de verdad si la máquina está haciéndonos llegar la voluntad real de los demás? ¿existiría ya tal cosa?

el problema de este escenario distópico es que tecnológicamente no es muy exigente, el principal ingrediente es que la gente participe y crea en ello, y el resto de los ingredientes ya están aquí

por ejemplo, cuando ya nadie pregunte en los StackOverflow y otros foros porque la máquina lo responda casi todo, y lo que no la gente se crea más a la máquina que a otra gente, ¿de dónde saca la máquina la nueva información, si no de sus propias pseudo-elucubraciones? como mucho a través de sus propios análisis de lo que la gente hace y comunica a la máquina

es un escenario de raíz más humana que tecnológica que ya empezamos a experimentar en una fase inicial:

- ¿qué ocurre cuando la gente prefiere las relaciones mediadas por tecnología a las relaciones humanas directas? por diversos motivos, incluídos motivos simples como la inmediatez o la capacidad de acceder a un "mercado" más grande o la capacidad de filtrar de forma inmediata y sin fricciones sociales, como si el otro humano fuera un personaje de videojuego

- ¿qué ocurre cuando la gente prefiere conscientemente dejar de interactuar con otras personas, ya ni siquiera de forma tecno-mediada? otro fenómeno que ocurre de forma rudimentaria cuando por ejemplo uno ya no tiene que comprar directamente del productor, y luego en una tienda pero sin tener ni que interactuar con gente, y luego ya ni en una tienda siquiera - esto se puede generalizar a prácticamente todos los ámbitos, si estuviera limitado a relaciones comerciales rutinarias no sería preocupante. Es algo muy distinto que la gente deje de dialogar o preguntar con otra gente progresivamente, es decir, que ni siquiera se lleven la conversacion a un ámbito artificial donde el desacuerdo se zanje con un click o un bloqueo mutuo, sino que se elimine del todo

Los usos que habla en medicina y otras tareas complejas me parecen casos de uso razonables, no así auténticas burradas como lo del asistente personal o la educación, que son básicamente una solución en busca de problemas, y particularmente en la educación, algo que tiene un potencial de ser aún más dañino que la tendencia actual de meter tecnología y pantallas en un ámbito en el que poco aportan aparte de crear adicción y déficit de atención.

[...]

para la gente que cree que la voluntad de los demás es un problema, es un escenario muy diferente - lo que para unos es dañino para otros es un escenario de ensueño

a mí me dice la gente muchas veces en Londres, incluso gente no muy metida en temas de cultura o política, que por supuesto es mejor que el Estado decida qué estudian los niños y cuáles son sus prioridades, y que eso de que la familia lo decida es una cosa anacrónica y carca - no sé hasta qué punto esta mentalidad ya está instaurada en otras capitales, me consta que en las grandes ciudades de EEUU es exactamente igual

no me cabe duda de que a Gates se le pone morcillona pensando cómo "las élites" (= el Estado controlado por ellas, = el globoestado) van a controlar más y más la voluntad y el libre albedrío de las personas, empezando desde su educación básica para que todo el mundo esté de acuerdo con sus "grandes planes"
« última modificación: Marzo 27, 2023, 14:01:59 pm por muyuu »

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Re:AGI
« Respuesta #72 en: Marzo 27, 2023, 14:22:53 pm »


 :roto2:

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Re:AGI
« Respuesta #73 en: Marzo 27, 2023, 15:31:53 pm »


 :roto2:

jaja menudo rollazo que he soltado ¿eh?

desgraciadamente, vamos a ver si no lo disfrutamos punto por punto  :roto2:

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Re:AGI
« Respuesta #74 en: Marzo 27, 2023, 15:45:09 pm »
jaja menudo rollazo que he soltado ¿eh?

desgraciadamente, vamos a ver si no lo disfrutamos punto por punto  :roto2:

Bueno, si se busca karma o likes, ya desde los tiempos del caralibro se sabe que vende más una foto o meme que un discurso :roto2: .

Problemas como los que comentas ya se están dando. YouTube tiene un algoritmo de censura que no es 100% infalible, lo peor está detrás cuando vas a presentar alegaciones a Google... y Google dice que no va a rectificar su decisión. Algo así como cuando impugnas una multa de tráfico puesta por un ayuntamiento, que te suelta la respuesta estándar, y que si llevas el caso al contencioso administrativo lo tienes ganado pero te hacen mear sangre para ello.

O peor que eso porque en el caso de Google a ver a qué tribunal apelas.

Hace tiempo leí otro caso, un hombre que además de perder su cuenta de Google mandaron sus datos a los tribunales... porque guardó automáticamente fotos de su hijo de un año en la bañera. Fotos inocentes de un padre a su hijo, pero que "el algoritmo" identificó como pornografía infantil.

No es que esos problemas nos vayan a crujir, es que ya lo están haciendo. Aún estamos lejos de que cunda el cabreo, pero en cuanto que se acumule, y sobre todo cuando "los algoritmos" le toquen las narices a algún pez gordo, la bronca estará servida.

Y si se va a tratar de tapar los escándalos va a ser precisamente para ocultar que se ha tirado a la basura una burrada de pasta en algo que no ha cumplido las expectativas.

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