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Rent Growth Has Slowed Down. These 5 Cities Are Missing Out.Fortunately for renters considering a move this year, and for those watching the outlook for inflation, rent increases this spring have been slower than usual. Unfortunately for renters in the nation’s largest city, that doesn’t include New York. At $2,048, Zillow‘s measure of the nation’s typical asking rent price in May represents a continued slowing in cost increases after rents soared earlier in the pandemic. Rents nationally increased by 0.6% between April and May, according to Zillow—about even with April’s increase but a slightly slower gain than the 0.7% typical for this time of the year.Rental growth has been moderating since reaching a high of a 17% year-over-year increase in February 2022, Zillow said. The slowdown indicates that “renters may be tightening their budgetary belts and doubling up with roommates as higher costs and lower excess savings make it less tenable to rent a place of their own,” Zillow senior economist Jeff Tucker wrote in a blog post this past week.At the national level, Tucker says he expects rents to grow more slowly than they did before the pandemic. That’s a healthy development, he says, “after the year and a half of really overheated growth that we already went through.”The continued slowing in national rent growth is a positive omen for inflation metrics. The Consumer Price Index subsection measuring the cost of shelter has remained relatively hot, even as increases in asking rents have declined.The inflation gauge typically lags behind changes in private measures of asking rent because of its methodology, which surveys renters about price changes on all leases, not just new ones. Tucker expects both the Bureau of Labor Statistic’s measure of rent and its measure of owners’ equivalent rent, or what a homeowner estimates it would cost to rent their home, to soon begin to cool on a year-over-year basis.The fact that rents rose more slowly than usual in May could be welcome news for people considering moving. Renters seeking a new lease “may find that they’ve got a bit more bargaining power than they expected,” Zillow’s Tucker told Barron’s.There’s one particularly big exception: Rents measured by Zillow in New York City jumped in May, rising 1.2% from the month prior. Of the 50 largest metropolitan areas, New York was among the five with the greatest month-over-month increases.Of those cities, Providence, R.I., was the only place where month-over-month rent growth exceeded New York’s. Other places with fast-growing rents included Chicago, San Diego, and Columbus, Ohio.New York’s renter-heavy population means rising costs in the city have the potential to affect a lot of households. Only about a third of residents in the nation’s largest city by population were homeowners in 2021, according to the Census Bureau. “It’s surprising to me how competitive the New York market is,” Zillow’s Tucker told Barron’s.The city’s strong rent growth “helps to prove that the death of urban life in America’s megacities, or superstar cities, was greatly exaggerated,” Tucker said. Rental demand has been particularly strong relative to supply in northeastern and Midwestern markets, Tucker said.The same can’t necessarily be said for large cities in other regions. Rents were the weakest in Portland, Ore., data show, where Zillow’s rent gauge was flat with the month prior. Other metropolitan areas with the smallest growth from the month prior include Atlanta, New Orleans, Los Angeles, and Miami.
Tudo bem... https://www.ft.com/content/6bf11c8e-c3f3-40cb-9489-157db427602aCitarMusk’s refusal to pay rent adds to Goldman bad property loansJump in delinquencies as rival banks warn of growing commercial real estate lossesGoldman Sachs was hit by a surge in commercial real estate loan delinquencies in the first quarter, fuelled in part by Elon Musk’s refusal to pay Twitter’s rent.The value of loans to commercial real estate borrowers (CRE) behind on repayments climbed 612 per cent in the first quarter to $840mn, according to reports filed by Goldman’s licensed banking entity with the US Federal Deposit Insurance Commission.That was much higher than the rise in delinquent CRE loans reported by the entire US banking industry, which were up 30 per cent over the same period to just over $12bn, according to Bankingregdata.com, which collates the FDIC reports.The jump in delinquencies at Goldman’s deposit-taking business comes at a time when rival banks are warning over growing losses on commercial real estate loans, most of which are tied to office buildings and were made before the pandemic ushered in a work-from-home culture.Goldman has much less exposure to commercial real estate lending than its larger rivals. At the end of the first quarter, it had $8.4bn of outstanding loans backed by commercial property, according to the FDIC report. Wells Fargo had $91bn and Bank of America had $60bn.However, the surging delinquencies are another sign of the frustrations the bank has faced as it tries to diversify its business away from its traditional focus on deals and trading.Goldman was among a group of banks including Citigroup and Deutsche Bank that lent $1.7bn to Columbia Property, a real estate investment trust, against seven office buildings in San Francisco and New York, including two that house large offices for Twitter.Twitter stopped paying its rent in November and Elon Musk, the billionaire owner of the social media network, has told employees he does not intend to restart payments or cover past dues, according to lawsuits. Columbia Property, which is suing Twitter over the missed payments, defaulted on the loan in February. Columbia Property declined to comment. Twitter, which has adopted a policy of not replying to the press, could not be reached for comment.Given Goldman’s relatively small exposure to the sector, the bad loans will not have a material impact on its earnings. “Lending doesn’t matter that much for Goldman,” says Christopher Kotowski, a banking analyst at Oppenheimer. Commercial real estate lending accounts for less than 20 per cent of the bank’s overall loan book, according to Goldman’s own calculations.Still, more than 10 per cent of its CRE loans held in its banking subsidiary, which accounts for 90 per cent of its overall loans, are in some form of delinquency, according to Bankingregdata.com, whereas the average delinquency at its peers is less than 1 per cent.In SEC filings and discussions with investors, Goldman defines its CRE lending more broadly and includes loans made to investment firms that buy and sell real estate debt as well as loans used to pool CRE loans into investment securities.On that yardstick, delinquencies are lower, but still higher than peers. “If you look at the entirety of our commercial real estate lending activities, our delinquency rate is below 2 per cent,” said Goldman.The FDIC, though, puts these loans, which tend to have much lower default rates, into a different category.Goldman, which became a regulated bank in the wake of the financial crisis, has spent the past decade putting more resources into lending. The firm now has nearly $180bn of bank loans outstanding, up from $3bn a decade ago.In 2020, Goldman said corporate lending was one of the firm’s priorities. “We are embracing the bank model,” said then chief financial officer Stephen Scherr, during a presentation to investors. “We believe this will be an important source of future upside for the firm.”The bank has benefited from higher interest rates, with profits at its lending entity rising to $3.7bn in the first quarter — an all-time high and a 20 per cent jump from the same period of last year.Nonetheless, the larger loan book is also a source of potential losses given Goldman’s willingness to lend to riskier corporate borrowers compared with its rivals. Just over 65 per cent of its commercial loans are to “junk” borrowers without an investment grade credit rating, compared with 28 per cent and 17 per cent for JPMorgan Chase and Citi, respectively.Goldman’s total volume of delinquent loans, according to FDIC data, jumped to $3.2bn at the end of the first quarter, or about 2 per cent of its loans outstanding, up from $2.4bn a year ago.Most of those are tied to credit cards and other consumer loans, which make up about 65 per cent of its loan loss provisions, per Bankregdata.com.Goldman earlier this year signalled its intention to pull back from lending to consumers by selling off $1bn of loans tied to its Marcus consumer bank.David Fanger, who follows Goldman for bond rating firm Moody’s Investors Service, said: “Even though their risk appetite may be larger than other firms, they are generally more proactive in risk management.”
Musk’s refusal to pay rent adds to Goldman bad property loansJump in delinquencies as rival banks warn of growing commercial real estate lossesGoldman Sachs was hit by a surge in commercial real estate loan delinquencies in the first quarter, fuelled in part by Elon Musk’s refusal to pay Twitter’s rent.The value of loans to commercial real estate borrowers (CRE) behind on repayments climbed 612 per cent in the first quarter to $840mn, according to reports filed by Goldman’s licensed banking entity with the US Federal Deposit Insurance Commission.That was much higher than the rise in delinquent CRE loans reported by the entire US banking industry, which were up 30 per cent over the same period to just over $12bn, according to Bankingregdata.com, which collates the FDIC reports.The jump in delinquencies at Goldman’s deposit-taking business comes at a time when rival banks are warning over growing losses on commercial real estate loans, most of which are tied to office buildings and were made before the pandemic ushered in a work-from-home culture.Goldman has much less exposure to commercial real estate lending than its larger rivals. At the end of the first quarter, it had $8.4bn of outstanding loans backed by commercial property, according to the FDIC report. Wells Fargo had $91bn and Bank of America had $60bn.However, the surging delinquencies are another sign of the frustrations the bank has faced as it tries to diversify its business away from its traditional focus on deals and trading.Goldman was among a group of banks including Citigroup and Deutsche Bank that lent $1.7bn to Columbia Property, a real estate investment trust, against seven office buildings in San Francisco and New York, including two that house large offices for Twitter.Twitter stopped paying its rent in November and Elon Musk, the billionaire owner of the social media network, has told employees he does not intend to restart payments or cover past dues, according to lawsuits. Columbia Property, which is suing Twitter over the missed payments, defaulted on the loan in February. Columbia Property declined to comment. Twitter, which has adopted a policy of not replying to the press, could not be reached for comment.Given Goldman’s relatively small exposure to the sector, the bad loans will not have a material impact on its earnings. “Lending doesn’t matter that much for Goldman,” says Christopher Kotowski, a banking analyst at Oppenheimer. Commercial real estate lending accounts for less than 20 per cent of the bank’s overall loan book, according to Goldman’s own calculations.Still, more than 10 per cent of its CRE loans held in its banking subsidiary, which accounts for 90 per cent of its overall loans, are in some form of delinquency, according to Bankingregdata.com, whereas the average delinquency at its peers is less than 1 per cent.In SEC filings and discussions with investors, Goldman defines its CRE lending more broadly and includes loans made to investment firms that buy and sell real estate debt as well as loans used to pool CRE loans into investment securities.On that yardstick, delinquencies are lower, but still higher than peers. “If you look at the entirety of our commercial real estate lending activities, our delinquency rate is below 2 per cent,” said Goldman.The FDIC, though, puts these loans, which tend to have much lower default rates, into a different category.Goldman, which became a regulated bank in the wake of the financial crisis, has spent the past decade putting more resources into lending. The firm now has nearly $180bn of bank loans outstanding, up from $3bn a decade ago.In 2020, Goldman said corporate lending was one of the firm’s priorities. “We are embracing the bank model,” said then chief financial officer Stephen Scherr, during a presentation to investors. “We believe this will be an important source of future upside for the firm.”The bank has benefited from higher interest rates, with profits at its lending entity rising to $3.7bn in the first quarter — an all-time high and a 20 per cent jump from the same period of last year.Nonetheless, the larger loan book is also a source of potential losses given Goldman’s willingness to lend to riskier corporate borrowers compared with its rivals. Just over 65 per cent of its commercial loans are to “junk” borrowers without an investment grade credit rating, compared with 28 per cent and 17 per cent for JPMorgan Chase and Citi, respectively.Goldman’s total volume of delinquent loans, according to FDIC data, jumped to $3.2bn at the end of the first quarter, or about 2 per cent of its loans outstanding, up from $2.4bn a year ago.Most of those are tied to credit cards and other consumer loans, which make up about 65 per cent of its loan loss provisions, per Bankregdata.com.Goldman earlier this year signalled its intention to pull back from lending to consumers by selling off $1bn of loans tied to its Marcus consumer bank.David Fanger, who follows Goldman for bond rating firm Moody’s Investors Service, said: “Even though their risk appetite may be larger than other firms, they are generally more proactive in risk management.”
Los gestores de fondos de inversión brindan sin pudor por la victoria del PPEn las conferencias sectoriales se anima a participar activamente en las elecciones del 23JLa industria de los fondos inversión español habita en un microcosmos vertebrado por el eje Prado-Recoletos de Madrid. La inmensa mayoría de las sedes de las gestoras y los eventos tiene lugar en la franja de seis kilómetros que separa la Plaza de Neptuno (Hoteles Ritz y Palace) de la Plaza de Castilla (sede de CaixaBank Asset Management). En los días londinenses que se vivieron en la capital la semana pasada, se produjo una efervescencia de encuentros sectoriales. En los corrillos, en las conferencias, en las presentaciones... un tema alimenta los debates: el adelanto de las elecciones generales al 23 de julio. Una sensación predomina entre los gestores: la victoria de Alberto Núñez Feijóo, candidato del Partido Popular (PP) está casi hecha. Y eso es, a juzgar por sus reuniones, una gran noticia para ellos y los partícipes de sus fondos.Puerta de Alcalá. 9 de la mañana del miércoles 8 de junio. Un nutrido grupo de inversores y expertos del sector inmobiliario se reúne en el salón de actos de la gestora Abante Asesores, en el número 6 de la Plaza de la Independencia. José Ramón Iturriaga, uno de los gestores estrella de la casa, presenta su nuevo fondo de inversión, dedicado a comprar acciones de socimis, promotoras inmobiliarias y constructoras. Directivos de Merlin Properties, Colonial, Ibervalles, A&G Banca Privada o Atl Capital atienden a las explicaciones del gestor, que argumenta por qué es un momento idóneo para invertir en el ladrillo español, a través de su fondo.En un momento de la presentación, Iturriaga expone una diapositiva donde se recogen varias noticias de prensa con sondeos en los que se da la victoria al PP. El inversor explica que “si se produce el cambio de Gobierno que todos estamos esperando, España puede volver a despegar, porque tiene todos los mimbres, como ya ocurrió con el llamado milagro económico de la época de Aznar y Rato”. El público asiente y sonríe . En una de las primeras filas se sienta el ex ministro de Defensa del PP, Eduardo Serra. Iturriaga juega en casa. Y hasta bromea: “yo ya le he sacado a mi suegra el billete de tren para que se vuelva a Madrid desde Sotogrande [una urbanización de lujo de Cádiz] para votar”.También explica que está expectante ante la próxima encuesta de Narciso Michavila, presidente de GAD 3, una de las firmas demoscópicas más prestigiosas de España. “Creo que nos va a traer buenas noticias pero, como trabaja para el PP, seguro que da un resultado peor del que finalmente tiene el PP, para que así nadie se duerma en los laureles y no vaya a votar”.20 horas antes. Hotel Wellington. Desde por la mañana se celebra la asamblea anual de Inverco, la asociación de las gestoras de fondos de inversión y de pensiones. El centenar de personas que allí se reúnen son los máximos responsables de la gestión de más de 500.000 millones de euros en activos financieros. En el acto iban a participar portavoces económicos del PSOE y el PP, pero se han caído de la agenda tras la convocatoria del 23J. Solo ha quedado una persona, ajena a Inverco, que interviene para clausurar la asamblea. Se trata de Elvira Rodríguez. Fue presidenta de la Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores (2012-2016) pero allí acude como portavoz adjunta del Grupo Popular en el Congreso. Inevitablemente, convierte su intervención en un mitin.“El Gobierno ha declarado la guerra a las sicavs, por puro populismo. Y ha pasado lo que tenía que pasar, que se han ido con el dinero a otros países”, afirma, mientras que el público asiente encantado. “Aquí se está poniendo en riesgo la economía de libre mercado, lo que es gravísimo. El 23 de julio tenemos un deber constitucional, una responsabilidad, que es ir a votar para que cambien estas políticas”, defiende Elvira Rodríguez.El presidente de Inverco, Ángel Martínez-Aldama, no va tan lejos. Lanza una serie de peticiones para “el partido que gane las elecciones”, respecto a la fiscalidad de los fondos de inversión o los incentivos a los planes de pensiones, criticando de forma velada algunas de las iniciativas que ha mantenido en este ámbito el Gobierno de coalición. Aprovecha su intervención para recordar que en julio se abre la oportunidad de que se forme un Ejecutivo que revierta estas políticas.En el cóctel que tiene lugar tras la asamblea, la cuestión electoral sigue ocupando algunas de las conversaciones. Los gestores de planes de pensiones han sido muy críticos con el recorte que ha puesto el Gobierno a las desgravaciones por meter dinero en planes de pensiones individuales. El Ejecutivo pensaba reducir estas para fomentar el ahorro a través de los planes de pensiones colectivos, pero el desarrollo de esta segunda parte se está haciendo esperar. “Al final, se ha desvestido a un Santo y ni siquiera se ha vestido a otro”, resume uno de los participantes.Poco a poco, los directivos del mundo de la gestión de activos van dejando el evento. Uno de los últimos, responsable en España de una gran firma extranjera (con activos bajo gestión en todo el mundo por más de un billón de euros), se despide de los que quedan. “¡Hasta la próxima! y, ya sabéis, el 23 de julio, ¡todos a votar!”. Mientras, los camareros reparten las últimas copas de cava.
[Si la economía española no va como una moto, ¿por qué no ceden los precios inmobiliarios de una manera ostensible?, je, je.]
Cita de: asustadísimos en Junio 11, 2023, 14:14:16 pm[Si la economía española no va como una moto, ¿por qué no ceden los precios inmobiliarios de una manera ostensible?, je, je.]Yo ya me había convencido de que los precios no cedían porque tenemos una burbuja inmobiliaria enorme con muchos intereses asociados. Pero ahora parece que lo único que importa es que Pedro Sánchez siga de Presidente. Pues vale. .., o je, je … o lo que proceda …
Cita de: Derby en Junio 11, 2023, 18:39:24 pmTudo bem... https://www.ft.com/content/6bf11c8e-c3f3-40cb-9489-157db427602aCitarMusk’s refusal to pay rent adds to Goldman bad property loansJump in delinquencies as rival banks warn of growing commercial real estate lossesGoldman Sachs was hit by a surge in commercial real estate loan delinquencies in the first quarter, fuelled in part by Elon Musk’s refusal to pay Twitter’s rent.The value of loans to commercial real estate borrowers (CRE) behind on repayments climbed 612 per cent in the first quarter to $840mn, according to reports filed by Goldman’s licensed banking entity with the US Federal Deposit Insurance Commission.That was much higher than the rise in delinquent CRE loans reported by the entire US banking industry, which were up 30 per cent over the same period to just over $12bn, according to Bankingregdata.com, which collates the FDIC reports.The jump in delinquencies at Goldman’s deposit-taking business comes at a time when rival banks are warning over growing losses on commercial real estate loans, most of which are tied to office buildings and were made before the pandemic ushered in a work-from-home culture.Goldman has much less exposure to commercial real estate lending than its larger rivals. At the end of the first quarter, it had $8.4bn of outstanding loans backed by commercial property, according to the FDIC report. Wells Fargo had $91bn and Bank of America had $60bn.However, the surging delinquencies are another sign of the frustrations the bank has faced as it tries to diversify its business away from its traditional focus on deals and trading.Goldman was among a group of banks including Citigroup and Deutsche Bank that lent $1.7bn to Columbia Property, a real estate investment trust, against seven office buildings in San Francisco and New York, including two that house large offices for Twitter.Twitter stopped paying its rent in November and Elon Musk, the billionaire owner of the social media network, has told employees he does not intend to restart payments or cover past dues, according to lawsuits. Columbia Property, which is suing Twitter over the missed payments, defaulted on the loan in February. Columbia Property declined to comment. Twitter, which has adopted a policy of not replying to the press, could not be reached for comment.Given Goldman’s relatively small exposure to the sector, the bad loans will not have a material impact on its earnings. “Lending doesn’t matter that much for Goldman,” says Christopher Kotowski, a banking analyst at Oppenheimer. Commercial real estate lending accounts for less than 20 per cent of the bank’s overall loan book, according to Goldman’s own calculations.Still, more than 10 per cent of its CRE loans held in its banking subsidiary, which accounts for 90 per cent of its overall loans, are in some form of delinquency, according to Bankingregdata.com, whereas the average delinquency at its peers is less than 1 per cent.In SEC filings and discussions with investors, Goldman defines its CRE lending more broadly and includes loans made to investment firms that buy and sell real estate debt as well as loans used to pool CRE loans into investment securities.On that yardstick, delinquencies are lower, but still higher than peers. “If you look at the entirety of our commercial real estate lending activities, our delinquency rate is below 2 per cent,” said Goldman.The FDIC, though, puts these loans, which tend to have much lower default rates, into a different category.Goldman, which became a regulated bank in the wake of the financial crisis, has spent the past decade putting more resources into lending. The firm now has nearly $180bn of bank loans outstanding, up from $3bn a decade ago.In 2020, Goldman said corporate lending was one of the firm’s priorities. “We are embracing the bank model,” said then chief financial officer Stephen Scherr, during a presentation to investors. “We believe this will be an important source of future upside for the firm.”The bank has benefited from higher interest rates, with profits at its lending entity rising to $3.7bn in the first quarter — an all-time high and a 20 per cent jump from the same period of last year.Nonetheless, the larger loan book is also a source of potential losses given Goldman’s willingness to lend to riskier corporate borrowers compared with its rivals. Just over 65 per cent of its commercial loans are to “junk” borrowers without an investment grade credit rating, compared with 28 per cent and 17 per cent for JPMorgan Chase and Citi, respectively.Goldman’s total volume of delinquent loans, according to FDIC data, jumped to $3.2bn at the end of the first quarter, or about 2 per cent of its loans outstanding, up from $2.4bn a year ago.Most of those are tied to credit cards and other consumer loans, which make up about 65 per cent of its loan loss provisions, per Bankregdata.com.Goldman earlier this year signalled its intention to pull back from lending to consumers by selling off $1bn of loans tied to its Marcus consumer bank.David Fanger, who follows Goldman for bond rating firm Moody’s Investors Service, said: “Even though their risk appetite may be larger than other firms, they are generally more proactive in risk management.”Noticia rara rara.. por un lado dice que Musk ha dejado de pagar pero no explica el por qué. Por un lado pareciera una invitación a todo el mundo a investigar y a hacer lo mismo.. porque oigan, si Musk puede y tiene sus miles (o millones de fans), ¿por qué no Mr. regular John? Por otro, el titular dice que esto tiene un impacto negativo en GS (claro, como cualquier deuda impagada, el agua moja), pero el cuerpo de la noticia dice que GS no tiene ningún problema con property debt y que su ratio de fallidos sigue siendo muy bajo. La prensa ya nos tiene acostumbrados a la divergencia cognitiva entre el titular y la noticia, así que nada nuevo.Si Musk decide que deja de pagar porque ve que el inmo se está pegando el castañazo y no va a ser él quién se coma las pérdidas, pues muy bien hoygan. Así también me hago yo billonario. Meto pasta en todo lo que pueda y si una de mis iniciativas no sale bien, dejo que el marrón se lo coma otro. Algo más tiene que haber detrás porque no creo que Musk pueda símplemente dejar de pagar porque no le gusta aflojar la pasta, y mucho menos que sus abogados y el resto de accionistas de sus empresas no le hayan puesto ya una camisa de fuerza.
En los medios de comunicación empieza a cundir que los pactos de gobierno en los Ayuntamientos van a ser decisivos en la prácticamente segura reelección del Sr. Sánchez —en los partidos se sabe a ciencia cierta que 2024 no va a ser bonito—.
No, si a mi Feijoo tampoco me gusta nada. Pero, hablando de la burbuja, si de verdad es el momento, prefiero que sea con el PP en el poder, para que caiga de una vez por todas. Si cae con el PSOE siempre habrá mucha gente que pensará que es una cosa temporal. Y, por mucho que las directrices vengan de la UE, lo mejor es que se fulminen las esperanzas de inmortalidad de la burbuja. Creo que, a la larga, se ahorrará tiempo.
Cita de: el malo en Junio 12, 2023, 13:24:41 pmCita de: Derby en Junio 11, 2023, 18:39:24 pmTudo bem... https://www.ft.com/content/6bf11c8e-c3f3-40cb-9489-157db427602aCitarMusk’s refusal to pay rent adds to Goldman bad property loansJump in delinquencies as rival banks warn of growing commercial real estate lossesGoldman Sachs was hit by a surge in commercial real estate loan delinquencies in the first quarter, fuelled in part by Elon Musk’s refusal to pay Twitter’s rent.The value of loans to commercial real estate borrowers (CRE) behind on repayments climbed 612 per cent in the first quarter to $840mn, according to reports filed by Goldman’s licensed banking entity with the US Federal Deposit Insurance Commission.That was much higher than the rise in delinquent CRE loans reported by the entire US banking industry, which were up 30 per cent over the same period to just over $12bn, according to Bankingregdata.com, which collates the FDIC reports.The jump in delinquencies at Goldman’s deposit-taking business comes at a time when rival banks are warning over growing losses on commercial real estate loans, most of which are tied to office buildings and were made before the pandemic ushered in a work-from-home culture.Goldman has much less exposure to commercial real estate lending than its larger rivals. At the end of the first quarter, it had $8.4bn of outstanding loans backed by commercial property, according to the FDIC report. Wells Fargo had $91bn and Bank of America had $60bn.However, the surging delinquencies are another sign of the frustrations the bank has faced as it tries to diversify its business away from its traditional focus on deals and trading.Goldman was among a group of banks including Citigroup and Deutsche Bank that lent $1.7bn to Columbia Property, a real estate investment trust, against seven office buildings in San Francisco and New York, including two that house large offices for Twitter.Twitter stopped paying its rent in November and Elon Musk, the billionaire owner of the social media network, has told employees he does not intend to restart payments or cover past dues, according to lawsuits. Columbia Property, which is suing Twitter over the missed payments, defaulted on the loan in February. Columbia Property declined to comment. Twitter, which has adopted a policy of not replying to the press, could not be reached for comment.Given Goldman’s relatively small exposure to the sector, the bad loans will not have a material impact on its earnings. “Lending doesn’t matter that much for Goldman,” says Christopher Kotowski, a banking analyst at Oppenheimer. Commercial real estate lending accounts for less than 20 per cent of the bank’s overall loan book, according to Goldman’s own calculations.Still, more than 10 per cent of its CRE loans held in its banking subsidiary, which accounts for 90 per cent of its overall loans, are in some form of delinquency, according to Bankingregdata.com, whereas the average delinquency at its peers is less than 1 per cent.In SEC filings and discussions with investors, Goldman defines its CRE lending more broadly and includes loans made to investment firms that buy and sell real estate debt as well as loans used to pool CRE loans into investment securities.On that yardstick, delinquencies are lower, but still higher than peers. “If you look at the entirety of our commercial real estate lending activities, our delinquency rate is below 2 per cent,” said Goldman.The FDIC, though, puts these loans, which tend to have much lower default rates, into a different category.Goldman, which became a regulated bank in the wake of the financial crisis, has spent the past decade putting more resources into lending. The firm now has nearly $180bn of bank loans outstanding, up from $3bn a decade ago.In 2020, Goldman said corporate lending was one of the firm’s priorities. “We are embracing the bank model,” said then chief financial officer Stephen Scherr, during a presentation to investors. “We believe this will be an important source of future upside for the firm.”The bank has benefited from higher interest rates, with profits at its lending entity rising to $3.7bn in the first quarter — an all-time high and a 20 per cent jump from the same period of last year.Nonetheless, the larger loan book is also a source of potential losses given Goldman’s willingness to lend to riskier corporate borrowers compared with its rivals. Just over 65 per cent of its commercial loans are to “junk” borrowers without an investment grade credit rating, compared with 28 per cent and 17 per cent for JPMorgan Chase and Citi, respectively.Goldman’s total volume of delinquent loans, according to FDIC data, jumped to $3.2bn at the end of the first quarter, or about 2 per cent of its loans outstanding, up from $2.4bn a year ago.Most of those are tied to credit cards and other consumer loans, which make up about 65 per cent of its loan loss provisions, per Bankregdata.com.Goldman earlier this year signalled its intention to pull back from lending to consumers by selling off $1bn of loans tied to its Marcus consumer bank.David Fanger, who follows Goldman for bond rating firm Moody’s Investors Service, said: “Even though their risk appetite may be larger than other firms, they are generally more proactive in risk management.”Noticia rara rara.. por un lado dice que Musk ha dejado de pagar pero no explica el por qué. Por un lado pareciera una invitación a todo el mundo a investigar y a hacer lo mismo.. porque oigan, si Musk puede y tiene sus miles (o millones de fans), ¿por qué no Mr. regular John? Por otro, el titular dice que esto tiene un impacto negativo en GS (claro, como cualquier deuda impagada, el agua moja), pero el cuerpo de la noticia dice que GS no tiene ningún problema con property debt y que su ratio de fallidos sigue siendo muy bajo. La prensa ya nos tiene acostumbrados a la divergencia cognitiva entre el titular y la noticia, así que nada nuevo.Si Musk decide que deja de pagar porque ve que el inmo se está pegando el castañazo y no va a ser él quién se coma las pérdidas, pues muy bien hoygan. Así también me hago yo billonario. Meto pasta en todo lo que pueda y si una de mis iniciativas no sale bien, dejo que el marrón se lo coma otro. Algo más tiene que haber detrás porque no creo que Musk pueda símplemente dejar de pagar porque no le gusta aflojar la pasta, y mucho menos que sus abogados y el resto de accionistas de sus empresas no le hayan puesto ya una camisa de fuerza.La noticia no tiene nada de rara lo que pasa es que como aquí en España somos tan especialitos para aplicar las normas...Lo lógico si no pagas la hipoteca y tu banco la revende a otro banco por el 50% del nominal es que tú tengas derecho a recomprar tu propia deuda por ese 50%.Aquí optamos por el "modelo español" la deuda se vende al 100% a un banco público o con financiación pública para que el hipotecado tenga el inmenso honor de seguir honrando su 100% de deuda.Lo que dice Musk es que si su arrendador compró el inmueble a crédito y ha dejado de pagar el mismo no va a ser él tan gilipollas de seguir pagándole el alquiler, que se aclaren con el tema de la propiedad y el valor real del inmueble o de la deuda con la que se financió la operación y luego ya veremos cuánto alquiler tenía que pagar yo en realidad.Lo cual es lógico, lo que no es lógico es que el 99% de las operaciones inmobiliarias se financien a crédito con tipos de interés a cero y te pretendan decir que el alquiler se calcula actualizando justo una renta que dé para pagar ese crédito.Eso es una trampa como una casa (como una hipoteca de grande) porque el dinero para el crédito se crea muy fácilmente, el préstamo también se firma muy fácilmente (lo aseguras con el propio inmueble), la hipoteca se paga también muy fácil con la zanahoria psicológica de las revalorizaciones mágicas de tu inmueble, todo es muy fácil, lo único difícil es doblar el lomo y madrugar todas las mañanas para pagar el absurdo alquiler que te imponen para que no se derrumbe todo el castillo que quieren edificar sobre tus pobres huesos currantes.
(...)P. S.: Estamos donde estamos por la gandulería del de la derecha...... y porque el PP no quiso devolverle el favor al PSOE de prestarle unas miserables abstenciones para la investidura como lista más votada, como el PSOE ya había hecho con el PP.]
No entiendo bien el proyecto traido por Cadavre ¿Quieren urbanizar todo el planeta? Requalificarlo todo según un patrón urbano y... ¿que todo sea pisito?