PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Otoño 2023

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/mercados-cotizaciones/noticias/12481346/10/23/el-sector-del-turismo-y-viajes-pincha-en-bolsa-tras-el-repunte-del-petroleo-por-la-guerra-en-israel.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/mercados-cotizaciones/noticias/12481177/10/23/el-petroleo-sube-un-4-por-la-guerra-en-gaza-el-barril-de-brent-acaricia-de-nuevo-los-89-dolares.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12481738/10/23/la-banca-central-mira-de-reojo-a-israel-la-escalada-del-petroleo-puede-ser-la-peor-zancadilla-para-el-bce.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12473409/10/23/la-duracion-media-de-los-contratos-se-desploma-hasta-su-nivel-mas-bajo-desde-2006.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12481236/10/23/fedea-cree-insuficiente-la-informacion-sobre-el-despliegue-del-plan-de-recuperacion.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12481863/10/23/los-economistas-elevan-en-cinco-decimas-hasta-el-35-la-tasa-de-inflacion-para-2023.html

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20231010/page/27/textview

La compraventa de vivienda cae un 15% interanual en agosto y las hipotecas un 22%

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/actualidad/noticias/12482134/10/23/garamendi-llama-al-dialogo-social-en-euskadi-no-es-para-sentir-orgullo-tener-las-mayores-huelgas-del-estado.html

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20231010/page/29/textview

Galicia reducirá al 8% el Impuesto de Transmisiones Patrimoniales

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12482635/10/23/un-nobel-para-el-trabajo-codicioso.html

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/698f41af-0d88-424b-80b0-241be01dac35

Office space vacancies in US and London reach at least 20-year highs

Large companies hold off committing to real estate deals as working patterns remain in flux

Demand for office space has slumped further, with vacancies reaching at least 20-year highs in the US and London, as people continue to work from home despite companies’ attempts to get staff back in the office after the Covid-19 pandemic.

Vacancy rates have risen to fresh highs and investment in offices fell sharply in the third quarter this year compared with the same period in 2022 in London, New York and San Francisco, according to preliminary data from CoStar, a research company focused on commercial real estate.

The sustained slowdown in the office market comes as higher borrowing costs and low occupancy are compressing building valuations while companies including Amazon, BlackRock, Lloyds Banking Group and JPMorgan have in recent months introduced staff attendance mandates on given days.

“The big ticket transactions [are] really not happening at the moment,” said Mark Stansfield, director of UK analytics at CoStar. “There is still a divide of expectations between sellers and buyers.”

Jonathan Gardiner, head of real estate agent Savills’ central London office agency, said large companies were holding off pulling the trigger on real estate deals because they were “still trying to understand their spatial needs” as working patterns shift from Covid-induced work from home to hybrid working and an increase in mandated office attendance.(...)

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/163db4c6-303d-4a52-9275-66359e4515e2

Higher rates for longer are a good thing

The era of zero interest policy was characterised by sluggish growth and yawning wealth inequality

They say the good things in life are free. That may be true of walks on the beach or picnics in the park. It is not true of money. 

The US Federal Reserve kept money free for nearly 14 years in the name of stimulating the economy. This period of “zero-interest rate policy”, or “Zirp”, was characterised by tepid growth, increased market concentrations, low productivity and yawning wealth inequality. Now that the Fed has shifted to a “higher for longer” stance to combat inflation, our economy will have to make painful adjustments to the rising cost of money. But we need to hold our course. Ultimately, higher rates will lead to a fairer, more productive and resilient economy. 

The theory of Zirp is that it boosts consumption and productive capital investments by making it cheaper for businesses and consumers to borrow. But the theory has not proved itself in practice. Economists have struggled to find a correlation between low interest rates and economic growth. Some studies suggest that higher rates are associated with higher economic growth. This is consistent with the US experience.

Take the “boom” years of 1982-1990 and 1991-2001, when annual gross domestic product growth of 4 per cent was typical, in comparison with the 2 per cent Zirp norm. In most of those boom years, short and long-term interest rates far exceeded the levels we see today. Households and businesses still borrowed. The economy hummed.  

Free money can actually undermine growth by making an economy less efficient. The more money costs, the more disciplined its allocation. If it’s costless to borrow, money flows into all sorts of unproductive uses. It flows into rampant speculation characterised by the crypto and meme stock crazes. It flows into zombie companies from indiscriminate investors seeking any decent yield. It harms competition by feeding industry concentrations. 

Research shows that larger companies disproportionately benefit from the lower rates, which they use to make acquisitions and other investments that increase their market dominance. As their market power grows, they lose incentives to remain agile and competitive as their smaller competitors fall further behind. I’m all for vigorous antitrust enforcement against anti-competitive behaviour. But the industry concentrations that so worry the Biden administration today may have as much to do with low rates as corporate misconduct.

Free money also exacerbates wealth inequality which is detrimental to an economy like ours in the US, which relies on middle class consumption to thrive. Concentrating wealth in the hands of a few diminishes the purchasing power of the rest. Zirp has done little for real wage growth, but it has done wonders in boosting asset prices mostly owned by rich people. It was particularly good for stocks as their expected future earnings became compellingly attractive in comparison to ultra-low Treasury yields. While over half of households directly or indirectly own some stock, 86 per cent of it is owned by the richest top 10 per cent. The benefits of ultra-low mortgage rates were more widely enjoyed, as booming home prices and the ability to refinance enriched millions of families who already owned homes. But renters’ costs also went up, while red-hot housing inflation made home ownership further beyond their reach. 

Free money contributes to financial instability, risking crises when inflation inevitably raises its ugly head, and the Fed has to tighten. It encourages excessive levels of borrowing, while incentivising risk taking and speculation among investors searching for yield. As rates rise, bubbles pop, over-extended borrowers default. Even safe, low-yielding assets lose market value. Risks build in unregulated, non-transparent pockets of the financial system. Private funds have exploded in growth — now holding $21tn in assets, according to the Securities and Exchange Commission — as normally risk-averse investors, such as insurance companies and pension funds, have been seduced by the lofty yields produced by their highly leveraged business models. But that model doesn’t work as well when money costs. 

The Fed is wise to pause to give our financial system time to adjust. Higher rates will help our economy, but a financial crisis could devastate it. Once we get through this transition, the Fed should fundamentally reassess its belief that a single-minded pursuit of 2 per cent inflation is good for the economy. Any level of inflation erodes real wages, while free money has undercut productivity and sustainable growth. Better that we abandon Zirp for good and rely less on central bankers to run our economies in the future. History, research and plain common sense suggest that we will be better off.

[Benzino Napaloni]

El fin del régimen de residentes no habituales en Portugal preocupa al sector inmobiliario

El Primer Ministro luso ha afirmado que este régimen tuvo sentido en su día, pero que ahora ya no lo tiene

El Primer Ministro de Portugal ha sorprendido al país al anunciar que en 2024 pretende poner fin al impuesto especial para los residentes no habituales (RNH). Tras conseguir que se promulgara el polémico Mais Habitação (Más Vivienda), en el marco de los preparativos de los Presupuestos Generales del Estado de 2024 y tras la oleada de manifestaciones nacionales del pasado sábado por la crisis inmobiliaria del país, António Costa ha afirmado que el Gobierno ha decidido no prolongar "una medida de injusticia fiscal, que ya no tiene justificación y que es una forma sesgada de inflar el mercado inmobiliario, que ha alcanzado precios insostenibles".

Sin dar más explicaciones, el líder del Ejecutivo socialista dejó en el aire varias dudas, suficientes para agitar las aguas en el sector. No en vano, el mercado inmobiliario reaccionó dando muestras de preocupación ante una medida que podría comprometer la salud del sector sin resolver el problema del acceso a la vivienda.

En España el anuncio de Costa ha generado preocupación, lo que se ha traducido en una oleada de contactos de profesionales y grandes patrimonios con despachos de abogados y asesores fiscales.

Un bufete madrileño ha asegurado a Expansión que "el teléfono no ha parado de sonar" tras el anuncio, y que el traslado de los españoles que esperan mudarse el año que viene ha quedado ahora en "stand by", ya que el hecho de que Portugal pueda tener un año fiscal parcial y decidir por meses, no por años como en nuestro país,  ha provocado que se retrasen los traslados de última hora este año para evitar la doble imposición pueden verse desincentivados.

Por su parte, Siro Barro, socio responsable del departamento de Derecho Tributario del bufete Escalona & de Fuentes, ha asegurado a Cinco Días que los altos contribuyentes y grandes patrimonios españoles buscan ahora nuevas fórmulas, entre las que se encuentra el regreso a España con la llamada ley Beckham.

El gobernador del Banco de Portugal (BdP) ha afirmado que no está "completamente" convencido de que programas como el de residentes no habituales sean el problema del mercado inmobiliario. Por su parte, para Mário Centeno, ex ministro de Finanzas de António Costa y ex presidente del Eurogrupo, el fin del plan es una cuestión política.

El Estatuto de Residente No Habitual (RNH) se creó en 2009 y no es otra cosa que un régimen especial que ofrece una reducción del Impuesto sobre la Renta de las Personas Físicas (IRS), durante 10 años a los nuevos residentes extranjeros de cualquier nacionalidad y a los ciudadanos portugueses que lleven más de 5 años emigrando, una norma que se aprobó "con vistas a atraer a Portugal a profesionales no residentes cualificados en actividades de alto valor añadido o de propiedad intelectual, industrial o de know-how, así como a beneficiarios de pensiones obtenidas en el extranjero".

"Es importante subrayar que el RNH no exime todas las rentas. Hay que distinguir entre las rentas procedentes de Portugal y las rentas de fuente extranjera. En el caso de las rentas de fuente portuguesa, no se aplica ninguna exención", ha subrayado el abogado João Magalhães Ramalho. Además, en un artículo publicado en Expresso el socio del equipo Fiscal de Telles también aclara otros puntos:

- Este régimen sólo beneficia a las rentas del trabajo dependiente y autónomo de aplicación de la tasa del 20% del IRS, pero únicamente cuando resulten del ejercicio de actividades de alto valor agregado definidas por ordenanza
- En el caso de las rentas procedentes del extranjero, la exención del IRS se aplica a algunas rentas profesionales (en algunos casos al tipo del 20% del IRS), intereses, dividendos, alquileres y plusvalías inmobiliarias (siempre que no se originen en paraísos fiscales), pero no para la mayoría de las plusvalías de valores y rentas de fondos, que sí tributan.
- Las pensiones extranjeras devengadas por los RNH registrados a partir del 1 de abril de 2020 tributan al tipo del IRS del 10%.
- El RNH termina en 2024, pero se mantiene para los que ya tienen la prestación
- El Primer Ministro portugués aclaró en una entrevista a TVI/CNN Portugal que, aunque en 2024 finalizará el impuesto especial para los residentes no habituales, "los que ya lo tienen lo mantendrán". Según el líder del Ejecutivo socialista, "la medida para los residentes habituales ya ha cumplido su función, por lo que no tiene sentido seguir gravando a los residentes no habituales".

António Costa ha añadido que, a pesar de que "hubo un momento en que era necesario y esta medida tenía sentido, ya que en los diez primeros años, "el 59% de las personas que se habían beneficiado permanecieron en Portugal", en este momento "ya no tiene sentido".

El Primer Ministro dijo que el régimen es "una forma sesgada" de contribuir a la especulación inmobiliaria, pero aún hay que esperar a que se ultimen los Presupuestos Generales del Estado (OE2024) de 2024 en el país vecino para conocer los detalles de la nueva ley, según una fuente oficial de la oficina del Primer Ministro.

El hecho de que quienes ya hayan adquirido este estatus sigan tributando al tipo especial del IRS hasta el final del periodo de diez años implica que, aunque Costa quiera promover la medida como una solución inmediata a los problemas de vivienda, los efectos del régimen fiscal aún se dejarán sentir en las cuentas del país durante otros nueve años, ya que este no terminará definitivamente hasta dentro de diez, en 2033.

A finales del año pasado, más de 74.000 personas se habían acogido ya al régimen de residentes no habituales, según las cifras del Tribunal de Cuentas (TdC) en su dictamen sobre la Cuenta General del Estado (CGE) de 2022. Se trata de un incremento cercano al 50% frente a los poco más de 25.000 de 2018, con un gasto fiscal asociado que rondó los 1.360 millones de euros.

El sector inmobiliario está sorprendido y preocupado

El fin del beneficio fiscal NHR cogió a gran parte del mercado por sorpresa. Bruno Alves, socio de PwC, ha afirmado a Negócios que "la noticia saltó muy rápido", por lo que están recibiendo consultas de todo el mundo sobre lo que estaba ocurriendo con un régimen que "tiene mucho impacto, no sólo para las personas, sino también para las empresas" y que es "muy estructural".

Alves ha recordado que Portugal tiene "muchas empresas tecnológicas en este momento con muchos extranjeros en su plantilla que están aquí gracias al régimen", por lo que el anuncio "creó cierta inquietud tanto a nivel nacional como internacional y fue una sorpresa para todos nosotros".

Así, tras la ola de incertidumbre generada por la ley Mais Habitação en el país luso, el mercado teme que los cambios en este régimen fiscal alejen las inversiones del país. En un comunicado al que ha tenido acceso idealista/news Portugal, Krest sostiene que el plan del Gobierno de poner fin al régimen NHR "plantea serias preocupaciones para los inversores en Portugal", lo que genera preocupación porque "las soluciones propuestas puedan empeorar la situación actual".

Asimismo, han añadido que "estos signos de incertidumbre pueden tener un impacto negativo", ya que "los inversores extranjeros, que han desempeñado un papel vital en el desarrollo económico de Portugal, podrían reconsiderar el factor de riesgo asociado a sus futuras inversiones en el país."

La Asociación Portuguesa de Turismo Residencial y Balnearios (APR) ha considerado que el nuevo cambio legislativo propuesto por el Gobierno es "una decisión más sin base factual y de profundas consecuencias para Portugal".

Otros promotores consultados por ECO plantean las mismas preocupaciones y temen que el futuro de la inversión extranjera en Portugal esté en peligro, por lo que han solicitado al Gobierno que publique datos para conocer el "impacto real" del régimen de residentes no habituales en la vivienda. Hugo Santos Ferreira, presidente de la Asociación Portuguesa de Promotores e Inversores Inmobiliarios (APPII), ha considerado que "sería muy pertinente hacer una evaluación correcta de esta medida" para conocer su influencia en el mercado inmobiliario.

Por su parte, José Cardoso Botelho, director general de Vanguard Properties, ha señalado que "el problema de la vivienda para la clase media se ha visto poco o nada afectado por los residentes no habituales o, como hemos visto antes, por los visados oro".

Por el mismo camino se ha movido Miguel Lacerda, director residencial de Lisboa de Savills Portugal, para el que la inversión de los residentes no habituales "no está relacionada en absoluto con la inflación del precio de la vivienda. Este tipo de inversor privado sólo puede alquilar un espacio, no necesita hacer una compra. Por lo tanto, este factor no contribuye a la subida del precio de la vivienda en el país".

No son los únicos en mostrar esta opinión, ya que incluso los inversores inmobiliarios que están de acuerdo en que el programa de residentes no habituales es injusto para los autóctonos han afirmado que el Gobierno no resolverá la actual crisis inmobiliaria enfriando la demanda externa.

Es el caso de Pedro Coelho, consejero delegado de Square Asset Management, una gestora de inversiones inmobiliarias en Lisboa con casi 2.000 millones de euros en inversiones inmobiliarias, que ha señalado que "en cierto modo, aplaudo esta idea", pero incluso así "el Gobierno tiene que aumentar la oferta de viviendas disponibles en el mercado si quiere resolver la crisis inmobiliaria y no bloquear la inversión", ha señalado el gestor a Bloomberg.

Hace diez años esto podía tener sentido. ¿Pero qué "inversiones" son necesarias cuando hablamos de tecnológicas, y sabiendo ya que el teletrabajo es viable?

Pisito o trabajo, poco a poco las posiciones se siguen definiendo.

[Negrule]

Buenas tardes,

Cadavre Esquix te agradecería, por favor, si puedes editar, copiar, el PDF sin tener que entrar en el link.

Muchas gracias


https://www.mba.org/docs/default-source/advertising/mba-nar-nahb-fed-rate-path-final-1.pdf?sfvrsn=f3ecbd03_1

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/a9bef127-6bba-45fc-8b1f-c5e02545082c

China’s largest private developer Country Garden warns of default

Company has about $200bn in liabilities and close to $10bn in dollar-denominated debt

Country Garden, China’s largest private developer, has warned of a potential default on its international debts in a significant blow to the country’s embattled property sector.

The company, which has about $200bn in liabilities and close to $10bn in dollar-denominated debt, said in a statement to the Hong Kong stock exchange that it had missed a due payment of HK$470mn ($60mn) on some of its debts and also expected it “will not be able to meet all of its offshore payment obligations” when they are due.

“Such non-payment may lead to relevant creditors of the group demanding acceleration of payment of the relevant indebtedness owed to them or pursuing enforcement action,” the company said on Tuesday.

The statement underscores a sudden deterioration in the financial health of Country Garden, which had so far this year withstood a sector-wide property cash crunch following the 2021 default of its peer Evergrande.

The potential default also adds to concerns over China’s property sector, which typically drives more than a quarter of the country’s economic activity but has for two years been plagued by construction delays after a wave of developer bond defaults, as well as by falling demand.

Country Garden said its sales for the first nine months were down 44 per cent on the same period in 2022 and fell in September for the sixth consecutive month.

“As there has not been any material, industry-wide improvement in property sales, the group faces significant uncertainty regarding asset disposals, and its liquidity position is expected to remain very tight in the short to medium term,” the group said.

Country Garden missed international bond payments in August, triggering a 30-day grace period, within which it narrowly avoided default last month. It said on Tuesday that it expected not to make payments “within relevant grace periods”, one of which expires next week.

The fate of Country Garden, which was previously seen as healthier than other private developers and eligible for government support programmes, will put pressure on Chinese policymakers who initially sought to curtail developer leverage in 2020.

Beijing has in recent months increased its support for the property sector and cut rates, while individual cities have also relaxed policies designed to constrain overheating prices. However, the industry’s outlook is clouded by uncertainty over unresolved defaults.

The restructuring plan of Evergrande, the world’s most indebted developer that first missed payments on its international debts two years ago, was derailed late in September after the company cited an unspecified “investigation” and pointed to regulatory constraints on issuing new notes.

Advisers to international bondholders holding about $6bn in the company hit out at the developer on Monday, saying that they had been “left in the dark” following the abrupt cancellation of the plan.

The bondholder group said the current “base case” was that the company would be liquidated at a winding-up hearing in Hong Kong at the end of the month.

Sunac, another former major private developer in China, received approval this month for its own $10bn restructuring plan from a Hong Kong court. Country Garden’s woes have also compounded fears that the crisis will spill over into other sectors.

Over the summer, Zhongrong, a giant in China’s $3tn shadow finance industry that lent money to developers, missed payments to customers.

In a separate statement to the Financial Times, Country Garden said it hoped to “comprehensively solve the company’s current overseas debt risks”. In September, it disclosed $7bn of losses in the first half of the year.

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/96940eed-8149-4608-9c31-1f6c1c6f2328

IMF warns of ‘heightened risk’ from bond market turmoil

Banks’ exposure to interest rates remaining ‘higher for longer’ a matter of concern for multilateral lender

The IMF has urged regulators to sharpen their scrutiny of threats from rising bond yields, as a continuing surge in global borrowing costs triggers “heightened risk” in financial markets.

“When you see large moves that are very fast, it has more potential to trigger instability, because market participants have to reposition and there are these accelerators in the system that could kick in,” Tobias Adrian, director of the fund’s monetary and capital markets department told the Financial Times. “Hopefully, calm will prevail at some point, but there is certainly heightened risk [now].”

The remarks come amid weeks of volatility in the price of US government bonds.

Yields on 30-year US debt hit a 16-year high of more than 5 per cent last week after strong data on the jobs market raised the prospect of the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rates remaining high for an extended period of time.(...)

https://www.ft.com/content/acff8ce0-61f3-4ddd-9dde-61a933ee70c6

IMF urges central banks to remain firm on inflation

Keeping borrowing costs elevated for longer than expected would not be ‘unreasonable’, says chief economist

The Federal Reserve needs to hold its nerve in its fight against the worst bout of US inflation for a generation, a senior IMF official said, as he urged the central bank to keep monetary policy tight even as global economic momentum slows.

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the fund’s chief economist, told the Financial Times, that despite recent falls, inflation remained too high for comfort in the US. Any policy easing would be a “huge risk” given the hard-fought battle to bring inflation down.

“What is really important is that monetary policy remains in tightening territory,” he said ahead of annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank being held this week in Morocco. “The cost of easing too early is probably higher than the cost of tightening a little more, especially when you have an economy that keeps surprising to the upside.”(...)

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-10/irish-commercial-property-set-for-one-of-weakest-years-on-record

Irish Commercial Real Estate Market Set for One of Weakest Years on Record

Investment is well below the average 3Q spend of €788 million
The slump in transactions mimics Europe-wide problem

This year will be one of the weakest on record for the Irish commercial property market, data from a real estate agent suggests after below average transaction levels in the third quarter.

Investment in commercial property in the country totaled €430 million ($454 million) during the three-month period, research by the agent Sherry FitzGerald found. That capital spend is far below the long-term third-quarter average of €788 million.(...)

[Cadavre Exquis]

Buenas tardes,

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Muchas gracias


https://www.mba.org/docs/default-source/advertising/mba-nar-nahb-fed-rate-path-final-1.pdf?sfvrsn=f3ecbd03_1

https://www.mba.org/docs/default-source/advertising/mba-nar-nahb-fed-rate-path-final-1.pdf

Saludos.