PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Invierno 2024

[el malo]

https://diariocambio22.mx/alerta-sobre-posible-amenaza-huties-podrian-apuntar-a-cables-submarinos-de-internet/

Alerta sobre Posible Amenaza: Hutíes Podrían Apuntar a Cables Submarinos de Internet

2 Feb. 2024

Uno de los tres únicos puntos de congestión de este tipo de cables del mundo pasa por el estrecho de Mandeb, según un artículo publicado en Gulf International Forum.
 
Redacción/ CAMBIO 22

Los rebeldes hutíes de Yemén podrían ampliar sus ataques de represalia por la guerra de Israel en la Franja de Gaza saboteando los cables submarinos de telecomunicaciones que pasan por el estrecho de Mandeb, según un artículo de opinión publicado en la página web del Gulf International Forum.

La autora de la nota afirma que un canal de Telegram vinculado a los hutíes publicó a finales de diciembre un mapa que muestra las redes de cables submarinos en el mar Rojo, el Mediterráneo, el Arábigo y en el golfo Pérsico.

Los cables submarinos llevan al lugar más vulnerable de internet | WIRED

“Hay mapas de cables internacionales que conectan todas las regiones del mundo a través del mar. Parece que Yemen se encuentra en un lugar estratégico, ya que cerca de él pasan líneas de Internet que conectan continentes enteros, no solo países”, decía el mensaje que acompañaba la imagen.

Aunque la declaración no especifica un objetivo, la amenaza coincide con el momento de los ataques hutíes contra los buques comerciales sospechosos de dirigirse hacia Israel o tener vínculos con el país hebreo, señala el artículo.

Desde mediados de octubre pasado, los insurgentes han lanzado más de 100 drones y misiles a barcos que entraron en el estrecho de Mandeb —que enlaza el mar Rojo con el golfo de Adén—, por el que pasa alrededor del 10 % del tráfico marítimo global. Los ataques obligaron a algunas compañías navieras a desviar la navegación hacia el cabo de Buena Esperanza, en Sudáfrica, encareciendo los costes y el tiempo de tránsito.


Los ataques indujeron a EE.UU. a formar una coalición naval internacional para defender el tráfico, así como a lanzar ataques aéreos conjuntamente con el Reino Unido contra varios objetivos de los rebeldes.

No obstante, los hutíes no manifiestan ninguna voluntad de detener los ataques basándose en su determinación de jugar un papel importante en la región. Asimismo, mientras siguen creciendo los temores de que el conflicto en Gaza se amplíe, los aliados de los hutíes también han llegado a mostrar interés en los cables submarinos. Tanto el movimiento libanés Hezbolá como varias milicias iraquíes asociadas con Irán han hecho respectivas publicaciones sugiriendo dañar estas líneas de fibra óptica, afirma la autora.

Cables submarinos de fibra óptica para detectar terremotos: barato y fiable

Además, señala que en un mundo cada vez más dependiente de Internet, cortar estos cables desconectaría países enteros afectando, entre otros, al sector financiero y las comunicaciones gubernamentales y militares.

El estrecho de Mandeb es “uno de los tres únicos puntos de congestión de cables del mundo”, lo que aumenta potencialmente el impacto de un sabotaje en estas líneas, agrega.

Considerando la relativamente poca profundidad de las aguas en la zona —no supera los 100 metros— los insurgentes no requerirían de avanzadas tecnologías de sumersión, tales como submarinos, y podrían limitarse a buceadores dotados de minas navales para dañar los cables, valora la autora del artículo.

Fuente:RT

Para los que teníamos cierto interés en Oriente Medio creo que esto es una sorpresa. Nos llevan años vendiendo que Yemen es un ejército de alpargateros, y que los hutíes son poco menos que unos bárbaros con AK47s (al estilo del Estado Islámico, pero más primitivos). Sin embargo llevan resistiendo las embestidas de la aviación Saudí y el mundo árabe desde que empecé a interesarme sobre el tema hará como 10 años o más.

Ahora resulta que estos cuatro desarropados han atacado a la armada de Estados Unidos y tienen en jaque el comercio y las comunicaciones globales. Irán ya se ha desmarcado de estos ataques. Me falta visión para saber si todo esto está relacionado de alguna manera con la decisión de Arabia Saudí y Emiratos de vender el petróleo en otras divisas que no sean USD.

Lo que sí creo es que USA está perdiendo capacidad de proyección exterior. Ya no vale con tener 2 portaaviones a 500 kilómetros de la costa y atacar desde la seguidad del cielo con aviación moderna. Los misiles de crucero son caros y no son muy efectivos si tu enemigo está disperso. Y lo más importante, si un dron (aéreo o marino) de unos miles de euros te puede inutilizar un portaaviones (aunque sea temporalmente) tienes un problema logístico descomunal y un agujero de millones de dólares por cada día de inactividad.

Mi opinión de barra de bar es que lo de Ucrania era un ensayo para ver cómo va una guerra moderna entre dos países con capacidades más o menos simétricas, y se han dado cuenta de que el concepto de guerra ha evolucionado por encima de la capacidad tecnológica desplegada actualmente. Más de uno habrá reculado en sus ansias de un enfrentamiento directo con Irán (no digamos ya China).

[Benzino Napaloni]

Mi opinión de barra de bar es que lo de Ucrania era un ensayo para ver cómo va una guerra moderna entre dos países con capacidades más o menos simétricas, y se han dado cuenta de que el concepto de guerra ha evolucionado por encima de la capacidad tecnológica desplegada actualmente. Más de uno habrá reculado en sus ansias de un enfrentamiento directo con Irán (no digamos ya China).

¿Un nuevo Pearl Harbor? El momento en que empezó a verse que el concepto del acorazado estaba muerto y superado por el portaaviones y el radar y sonar.

Desde luego el asunto de los drones ahí está. Hoy día el 11-S se podría hacer sin secuestrar aviones, y miedito da pensarlo.

[newclo]

Mi opinión de barra de bar es que lo de Ucrania era un ensayo para ver cómo va una guerra moderna entre dos países con capacidades más o menos simétricas, y se han dado cuenta de que el concepto de guerra ha evolucionado por encima de la capacidad tecnológica desplegada actualmente. Más de uno habrá reculado en sus ansias de un enfrentamiento directo con Irán (no digamos ya China).

¿Un nuevo Pearl Harbor? El momento en que empezó a verse que el concepto del acorazado estaba muerto y superado por el portaaviones y el radar y sonar.

Desde luego el asunto de los drones ahí está. Hoy día el 11-S se podría hacer sin secuestrar aviones, y miedito da pensarlo.

Ah !
Que al final las tiraron los aviones ?

O te refieres a su uso como elemento de la trama ?

[conejo]

Hablando de portaaviones…

https://sputniknews.lat/20240203/eeuu-despliega-portaviones-en-el-pacifico-con-china-y-corea-del-norte-en-la-mira--1147948186.html

[conejo]

Por otra parte, además …

https://www.defensa.com/otan-y-europa/fuerza-aerea-estados-unidos-despliegue-bombardeos-b-52-guam-para



Y hoy mismo…

[senslev]

https://ctxt.es/es/20240201/Firmas/45523/Observatorio-Fundacion-la-Caixa-pobreza-juventud-vivienda-alquileres-subida-de-precios.htm

[Derby]

Ya va llegando...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-07/kkr-mortgage-reit-falls-after-cutting-dividend-on-troubled-loans

KKR Mortgage REIT Plunges as Commercial-Property Woes Mount

Stock dropped the most since March 2020 after dividend cut
Investors are watching property lenders after NYCB plummeted

KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc., which invests in commercial mortgages, slumped after the company slashed its dividend to help it deal with souring loans.

The real estate investment trust lowered its dividend to 25 cents a share, down by 42%, after the company realized a nearly $59 million loss on a Philadelphia office loan. It also added two multifamily assets — one in Raleigh, North Carolina, and one in San Diego — and a Seattle life sciences property to its watchlist, signaling that commercial real estate woes extend beyond offices.(...)

[Derby]

NHD

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-07/nycb-in-talks-to-offload-mortgage-risk-plans-to-sell-rv-loans

NYCB in Talks to Offload Mortgage Risk, Exploring Loan Sales

Bank considers a credit-risk transfer backed by mortgages
Regional lender’s shares have plunged on real estate concerns

New York Community Bancorp has been reaching out to investors for capital to finance a large portfolio of residential mortgages as pressures on the regional lender mount, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

The company is seeking third-party capital that would inject liquidity into a portfolio of residential mortgages held under its Flagstar Bank unit. Among the options is a synthetic risk transfer backed by a portfolio of about $5 billion of home loans originated when interest rates were lower, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing information that isn’t public. In a synthetic securitization, banks offload their exposure to loans by effectively transferring the risk of the assets to the buyer. (...)

[senslev]

La hora de la verdad.

[Derby]

https://financialpost.com/fp-finance/banking/commercial-real-estate-contagion-spreads-to-europe

German bank warns of 'greatest real estate crisis since the financial crisis' as CRE contagion spreads

Loans beginning to sour as rising interest and vacancy rates erode value of office towers

The troubles in the United States commercial property market, which have already hit banks in New York and Japan, moved to Europe this week, elevating fears about broader contagion.

The latest victim was Germany’s Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG, which saw its bonds slump on concern about its exposure to the sector. It responded by issuing an unscheduled statement Wednesday that it had increased provisions because of the “persistent weakness of the real estate markets.”

It described the current turmoil as the “greatest real estate crisis since the financial crisis.”

Lenders are taking increasing provisions on debt extended to property owners and developers as loans begin to sour after rising interest rates eroded the value of buildings around the world. On Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that losses in commercial real estate are a worry that will put stress on owners, but added that she thinks the problem is manageable. 

Canada’s bank regulator also called commercial real estate loan losses a manageable risk for this country’s biggest banks Tuesday.

For offices in the U.S., where the return to work following the pandemic has been slower and less substantial, the value destruction has been particularly bad. And some predict the full impact might not even be fully priced in yet. Analysts at Green Street said that a further writedown of as much as 15 per cent may be needed this year.

“Appraisal values remain much too high,” they wrote in a note. “Lenders that base their decisions on these appraisals have greater odds of taking impairments” and some could face “strain” as a result.



The plunge in German lenders’ bonds was the latest in a series of warning signals. New York Community Bancorp was cut to junk by Moody’s Investors Service after flagging real estate problems, while Japan’s Aozora Bank recorded its first loss in 15 years due to provisions on loans extended to U.S. commercial properties.

“There are serious concerns in the U.S. CRE market,” said Rabobank credit strategist Paul van der Westhuizen. “It’s a not an issue for larger U.S. and European banks but the smaller property-focused German banks are feeling a bit of pain. Right now it’s more a profitability issue than a solvency issue for them though. They have sufficient capital and are less exposed to the threat of deposit runs than pure retail banks are.”

In its results last week, Deutsche Bank AG recorded provisions for losses in U.S. commercial real estate that were more than four times bigger than a year earlier. It warned that refinancing poses the greatest risk to the struggling sector as asset values suffer.

Elsewhere in Europe, Switzerland’s Julius Baer Group Ltd. said it would write down huge loans to bankrupt property company Signa. While it was a specific issue, it’s added to the broader worries about real estate and how far the issues could spread.

“Investors are currently significantly concerned about exposure by individual institutions,” said Marc Decker, head of equities at Quintet Private Bank. “Some banks are certainly more affected than the broad-based universal banks by the problems in this market. However, investors are currently very sensitive.”

Bond plunge

On Tuesday, Morgan Stanley held a call with clients recommending they sell Deutsche PBB’s senior bonds. The notes due in 2027 have tanked over 5 cents since and are now quoted at around 97, according to CBBT data compiled by Bloomberg. Meanwhile, the bank’s AT1 notes slumped 14 cents to 37 between Tuesday and Wednesday.

Deutsche PBB said Wednesday that it has increased loan-loss provisions to €210-215 million for the full year. It said it “remains profitable thanks to its financial strength.”

Concerns over PBB has spread to other banks with exposure to commercial real estate. Aareal Bank AG bonds have lost about 11 points in the last two days and are now quoted at 75 cents on the euro. In November, it reported that the value of US non-performing loans had risen more than fourfold over the previous year.

Bafin, the country’s banking regulator, said it’s monitoring the CRE turmoil, declining to comment on Deutsche PBB specifically.

Germany’s central bank warned last year about the risks surrounding commercial real estate, saying there could be “significant adjustments” that lead to higher defaults and credit losses.

“The outstanding volume of loans granted by the German banking system to the US commercial real estate market is comparatively small, but relatively concentrated at individual banks,” the Bundesbank said.

Germany’s Landesbanks have also felt the pain of their exposure to commercial real estate; in the first half of 2023, the major state banks – Helaba, BayernLB, LBBW and NordLB – posted provisions of about €400 million in total.

If the CRE losses spread to Europe through smaller German banks, that would have an echo of the 2008 global financial crisis. Back then, it was the Landesbanks that got into trouble, when their exposure to subprime mortgages in the U.S. led to billions of euros of writedowns.

“You have to be mindful as you don’t know exactly where the bottom is,” said Raphael Thuin, head of capital markets strategies at Tikehau Capital. “We are aware that there could be more pain to come in commercial real estate.”

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/2e95d7cd-0a53-432b-b0c5-4614fe5d7cb3

Fed’s Collins says US demand must ‘moderate’ to hit inflation target
Claire Jones in Washington

The president of the Boston Federal Reserve has said US demand will need to slow this year if the central bank is to hit its 2 per cent inflation goal.

Susan Collins said in a speech on Wednesday that the recent rise in workers in the US labour market and the easing of supply chain pressures had helped ease price pressures.

“There may be some further effects on consumer prices from the past resolution of supply chain bottlenecks, [but] most of that is likely behind us,” Collins said.

“A durable return to 2 per cent inflation will likely require demand growing at a more moderate pace this year”.

[Derby]

Bang!...

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/german-landlord-tag-warns-home-prices-could-fall-30-peak-2024-02-07/

Exclusive: German landlord TAG warns home prices could fall 30% from peak

DUESSELDORF, Feb 7 (Reuters) - German home prices could fall as much as 30% below their 2022 peak, one of the country's largest landlords told Reuters, in a more pessimistic assessment than rivals highlighting the continued threat posed to Europe's biggest economy.

TAG Immobilen co-CEO Martin Thiel painted a bleak picture for Europe's biggest residential property market, which has already seen prices tumble by around 10% in Germany's worst property crash in a generation.

"We expect further losses in value," Thiel said, adding that while he expected the fall in valuations to bottom out at 20%, TAG was taking precautions for worse.

"You have to be prepared in case it is not the 20% but 25% or 30%. The balance sheet must be able to withstand that. You simply need that cushion," Thiel said in an interview.

"The market for transactions is incredibly difficult," he said. "You hardly see any big transactions."

Germany's 670 billion euro ($722 billion) property industry is a critical pillar of its economy, contributing one in 10 jobs, nearly a fifth of output, and eclipsing the country's famous car sector, according to the ZIA industry association.



Thiel said that after writing down the value of TAG's portfolio of 85,000 German homes by 13% since the middle of 2022, he expected a total drop in value of 20% by June.

His view is markedly more downbeat than that of Germany's largest listed property group Vonovia, whose CEO Rolf Buch told Reuters he was cautiously optimistic that the worst was over.

Vonovia wrote down the value of its property by roughly 10% to June, plunging the group to a 4 billion euro loss.

"I cannot guarantee that we will not see valuations that are a little bit lower in the next half year," said Buch, whose company owns roughly 550,000 apartments.

"But it seems that the market is reaching the bottom," he said. "Similar to Formula One racing, we will soon be coming out of the curve and we will then pick up speed. This moment is getting close, but at the moment we are still on the brakes."

LEG Immobilien, Germany's second-largest listed landlord, had written down the value of its 166,000 apartments by more than 10% by the middle of last year and signalled further writedowns of up to 6%.

LEG CEO Lars von Lackum said he did not expect a 30% drop.

"The German property market is not going to implode," von Lackum told Reuters.

For years, property in Europe and particularly Germany boomed as interest rates fell, turbocharging demand. But a sudden jump in rates and building costs tipped some developers into insolvency as bank financing dried up and deals froze.

Germany is so far Europe's hardest hit in a rout that has also struck China and the United States.
Jobs are increasingly on the line, and the industry has called for emergency aid.

In Europe, the sector suffered a setback with the downfall of property mogul Rene Benko's Signa, which threatened his vast retail holdings and the future of New York's Chrysler Building.

Thiel's comments give insight into an industry which is largely in the hands of small, privately-owned companies.

Many investors and company executives who spoke to Reuters have been reluctant to book losses, hoping the market improves.

The dearth of deals also make it hard to identify prices, although this could change if a likely cut to interest rates expected in the middle of this year kick-starts activity.

Thiel said that while listed companies were forced to react fast, many sellers were dragging their feet in cutting prices.

"Potential buyers know that the prices have changed," he said. "Both sides are some way apart. That is why we partially have a standstill."



TAG's CEO said he had misjudged the scale of the slump that forced it to withhold dividends, sell property and raise capital.

"If you had asked at the beginning of 2022 whether prices for apartments ... would fall by 20%, I probably would have said: impossible. The business is too stable for that."

The outlook for 2024 remains grim, with DIW, a prominent economic institute, forecasting that construction spending is set to fall this year for the first time since the financial crisis, before stabilizing in 2025.

[Derby]

https://twitter.com/josecdiez/status/1755165576425537978

@josecdiez La producción industrial estancada desde 2016 y un 15% por debajo de 2007 y aquí estamos con amnistías, lawfare, Eurovisión y polladas varias. En fin @_combarro_

[Cadavre Exquis]

Alibaba Reduced Headcount by a Further 20,000 in 2023
Posted by msmash on Wednesday February 07, 2024 @01:01PM from the meanwhile-in-China dept.

An anonymous reader shares a report:

Alibaba Group cut its staff by roughly 20,000 over the course of 2023, adding to a spate of layoffs spanning global tech companies from Silicon Valley to Hangzhou. China's e-commerce pioneer ended December with 219,260 employees, down from close to 240,000 a year earlier, it said in detailing its earnings for the holiday quarter on Wednesday.

The company's pace of eliminating roles has been fairly steady, as it reduced headcount by roughly the same number over the course of 2022 as well. Mirroring US peers like Meta Platforms, Alibaba paired the reduction in staff with a significant buyback, extending its authorization for repurchases by another $25 billion on Wednesday. The company bought back $9.5 billion worth of shares in 2023.

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/citi-says-us-tech-stocks-090014961.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-06/citi-says-us-tech-stocks-face-risk-of-big-selloff-on-positioning

Citi Says US Tech Stocks Face Risk of Big Selloff on Positioning

Nasdaq short bets have been cleared completely: Montagu
Bullish positioning push stalls, but exposure remains net-long

Investor positioning in US technology stocks is so bullish that any selloff could trigger a wider rout, according to Citigroup Inc. strategists.

Wagers on declines in tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 futures have been completely erased, leaving investors overwhelmingly expecting further gains. “The large consensus positioning is a risk that could amplify a turn in the market,” strategists led by Chris Montagu wrote in a note dated Feb. 5. (...)