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US inflation slowed less than expected to 3.1% in JanuaryResilience in price pressures comes as Federal Reserve considers when to begin cutting interest ratesUS headline inflation slowed to 3.1 per cent in January, a smaller than expected improvement, challenging market expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in May.Economists polled by Bloomberg had forecast annual consumer price inflation of 2.9 per cent, down from 3.4 per cent in December.Core inflation, a closely watched measure that strips out volatile food and energy prices, was 3.9 per cent year on year in January, in line with the previous month.Monthly headline inflation rose 0.3 per cent, surpassing the 0.2 per cent forecast.The figures come as the Fed considers when to start cutting interest rates this year from their current level of 5.25 to 5.5 per cent.Following the stronger than expected inflation figures, futures traders scaled back their bets on the likelihood of a rate cut in May from 50 per cent to 30 per cent, while a cut in June was no longer fully priced in.US stock futures dropped sharply following the release, while government bond yields shot higher.The two-year Treasury yield, which moves with interest rate expectations, jumped 0.15 percentage points to 4.62 per cent. The benchmark 10-year yield added 0.11 percentage points. Yields rise as prices fall.The dollar, whose movements are influenced by changes in rate expectations, traded 0.6 per cent higher.Futures contracts linked to the S&P 500 extended earlier losses to trade more than 1 per cent lower, while those tracking the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were down 1.7 per cent ahead of the New York open.Shelter costs, vehicle insurance and medical care all contributed to January’s price pressures. Housing, the largest component of which is rental costs, was the biggest contributor to core inflation, with the index increasing 0.6 per cent in January.The dramatic fall in inflation over the past year has prompted central bankers in the US, Europe and the UK to rule out further rate increases and start discussing the possibility of cuts.Last month, Fed chair Jay Powell said the Federal Open Market Committee expected to cut interest rates three times this year, but he signalled it was unlikely to begin doing so until more progress had been made towards its 2 per cent inflation target.The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation is the core personal consumption expenditures index, which has slowed more drastically than CPI. The core PCE index was up 2.9 per cent in January on an annual basis, the first reading of less than 3 per cent in about three years.The Fed’s next policy meeting is scheduled for March 19-20, at which it will release its latest “dot plot” survey showing officials’ projections for interest rates, inflation and unemployment.
Cita de: el malo en Febrero 13, 2024, 12:18:02 pmLa dualidad que se ve a estos niveles es sonrojante. Hay mucha resistencia a la hora de dar dinero a los curritos, pero soltar de decenas de miles de USD para otras cosas es normal.Totalmente de acuerdo. Yo también lo percibo y con la estridencia (irracionalidad y falta de coherencia) que comentas. Suele ser miedo.
La dualidad que se ve a estos niveles es sonrojante. Hay mucha resistencia a la hora de dar dinero a los curritos, pero soltar de decenas de miles de USD para otras cosas es normal.
Cita de: saturno en Febrero 13, 2024, 14:55:09 pmNo- no se trata de oponer Trabajo VS Empresa-El trabajador ya está enseñando sus cartas -y los colmillos- y está dejando claro que no va a seguir mucho más tiempo remando como un idiota mientras siente que se ríen de él en su cara. Aquí entra también el ladrillo, o entrará. Así que ahora toca hacer cuentas y poner todos los números encima de la mesa.Benzino, no se si estoy de acuerdo, la mayor parte de la población Española nunca ha estado para ensñar sus cartas, sino para tragar. A parte de las tragaderas, el Españolito medio suele vivir al límite, a 2 nóminas del desastre, lo que impide en muchos casos plantear dejar de tragar. Esta es la parte que siempre me parece que falla de tu discurso, en España no veo a la gente por decir basta ni por la revolución, quizá alguna gente de algunos sectores si nos podamos plantear ciertas cosas, pero a grandes rasgos no.
No- no se trata de oponer Trabajo VS Empresa-El trabajador ya está enseñando sus cartas -y los colmillos- y está dejando claro que no va a seguir mucho más tiempo remando como un idiota mientras siente que se ríen de él en su cara. Aquí entra también el ladrillo, o entrará. Así que ahora toca hacer cuentas y poner todos los números encima de la mesa.
Benzino, no se si estoy de acuerdo, la mayor parte de la población Española nunca ha estado para ensñar sus cartas, sino para tragar. A parte de las tragaderas, el Españolito medio suele vivir al límite, a 2 nóminas del desastre, lo que impide en muchos casos plantear dejar de tragar. Esta es la parte que siempre me parece que falla de tu discurso, en España no veo a la gente por decir basta ni por la revolución, quizá alguna gente de algunos sectores si nos podamos plantear ciertas cosas, pero a grandes rasgos no.
@NewsLambertBack to a 7 handleThe average 30-year fixed mortgage rate pops up to 7.08%Highest reading since December 12thSpread: 280 bps
Dollar breaks through ¥150 barrier on stronger than expected US inflationThe dollar rose above ¥150 for the first time since mid-November after fresh data showed US inflation is cooling more slowly than expected. The greenback rose 0.7 per cent against the yen to trade at ¥150.44 — above the psychological threshold at which traders have previously anticipated intervention from Japanese authorities to support the currency. The yen has been weakening since the beginning of 2024 as traders downplay the likelihood of a near-term interest rate increase by the Bank of Japan. But the latest moves were driven by rising strength in the dollar after data on Tuesday showed that US inflation in January was higher than forecast, leading traders to trim their bets on interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Tougher Rent Laws Are Behind Trouble at NYCBWhen New York Community Bancorp posted large losses last month and warned of more difficulties to come, it pointed to a significant cause for concern: troubled loans in a sinking corner of the New York City apartment market.NYCB is the city’s largest lender on rent-stabilized apartments. About $18 billion of its loans are backed by the city’s rent-stabilized units, representing more than 20% of its total loan book.Many of these loans were made when developers had more flexibility to upgrade rent-stabilized units and then boost the rent to market rate, or convert them to condominiums.In 2019, new laws capped the amounts that landlords can raise rents at these properties. Though these buildings could still deliver steady returns, business plans that were based on steeper rent increases no longer penciled out. Property values started to plummet.Sale prices of buildings containing rent-regulated units have fallen 34% since then, according to Maverick Real Estate Partners, a private-equity fund manager. Some rent-stabilized multifamily buildings have sold for half—or even less than half—of what owners paid for them before the 2019 law went into effect.An apartment building on Manhattan’s Upper West Side sold this month for close to one-third of what the owners paid for the properties a decade ago.Other banks with high exposure to this part of the New York City apartment market include JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo, according to Maverick. But NYCB might be the most vulnerable. The bank said 14% of its loans on New York City rent-stabilized buildings are now considered “criticized,” meaning they face elevated default risk.So far, most of these properties still bring in more than enough profit needed to make loan payments, earnings reports show, and defaults have been rare.But as loans on these apartments mature and the cost of borrowing resets to today’s interest rates, some property owners will face financing costs that have doubled.In a downgrade last week, Moody’s noted that NYCB’s apartment portfolio had performed well historically. “However, this cycle may be different,” the ratings agency said.Boom days under former business modelWhen the rent laws were more flexible, investors, and lenders like NYCB, viewed rent-stabilized housing as a safe and potentially lucrative business. Loans backing these buildings were chopped up into bonds and sold by the thousands.Between 1994 and 2019, landlords removed more than 300,000 New York City apartments from the state’s rent-stabilization registry, meaning they could charge market rates, according to the city’s Rent Guidelines Board. About a million remain.New laws in 2019 were designed to prevent the city’s stock of affordable apartments from shrinking further. Last year, the maximum increase for these properties was 3%, and additional increases for renovations have been greatly reduced.Tenant advocates have heralded the new laws as overdue relief for some of the country’s most cost-burdened renters. Landlord groups say the new rules are bankrupting owners, while threatening to bring down regional banks like NYCB.Even one of the city’s Democrats warned that New York’s multifamily market would suffer a severe blow if NYCB goes under. “A failure at NYCB would destabilize not only the banking system but also the largest multifamily housing market in the country,” Rep. Ritchie Torres, who represents part of the Bronx, told Politico.Diverging fates of two Upper West Side buildings help illustrate how this niche business once worked, and how it has changed.In 2013, the investment firm BentallGreenOak bought a rent-stabilized building where it planned to pay existing tenants to forfeit their leases and convert the building to luxury condominiums. The plan, which was executed before the new laws, was a financial success. Today penthouses at the building sell for more than $6 million.Around the same time, BentallGreenOak had a similar idea for another property in the same area. With a partner, it paid $85 million for 93 rental units on Riverside Drive. That purchase price was predicated on a plan to renovate rent-stabilized units, then lease them back out at much higher rents.But at this property, the company found tenants less receptive to buyouts. They were also more organized in opposing the company’s plans, a person familiar with the matter said. Although some renovations progressed, the company had turned over only a small portion of the units by the time the rent laws changed in 2019.As a result, BentallGreenOak wrote down a large loss and sold the property this month for just $31 million.Rising rates add to the riskMore recently, higher interest rates pose the most immediate threat. NYCB’s average multifamily borrower pays an interest rate below 4%, but that would jump to as high as 8% for landlords whose terms are set to expire and who need to refinance, said Peter Winter, an analyst at D.A. Davidson.For many of NYCB’s landlord customers, 8% interest would mean the properties are no longer profitable, said Sumit Grover, an analyst at Trepp, who made estimates based on figures from the bank’s earnings statements.In the interim, the bank could choose to let borrowers make interest-only payments on floating-rate loans, analysts said. That could buy borrowers more time in the case interest rates fall later this year.Some owners of market-rate multifamily buildings in New York are also dealing with expiring loans. But they have been able to push up rents at a historic pace in recent years, giving them extra cushion.A recent report published by the city’s Department of Housing Preservation and Development said the city’s apartment vacancy rate last year hit a 55-year low of 1.4%, indicating high housing demand. That could embolden landlords to raise rents further.Meanwhile, rising insurance costs are adding to the pressures in the multifamily category. Owners of rent-stabilized buildings might feel it most acutely. “They don’t have that luxury to adjust the rent to manage what’s going on in the market,” Winter said.
New York, New YorkPlus: rent control behind financial problems at NYCB, public housing's corruption problem, and New York City's near-zero vacancy rate.(...) Before 2019, landlords could remove their units from rent stabilization when monthly rents went above $2,800 and the current tenant moved out—a policy called "vacancy decontrol." Landlords were also allowed to pass on the costs of building repairs to tenants and raise rents. In 2019, the New York Legislature amended the rent stabilization law to eliminate vacancy decontrol and limit the ability of landlords to pass on the costs of unit upgrades and building repairs to tenants.That means, today, landlords are only able to raise rents by the amount set by the Rent Guidelines Board, which consistently only allows rent increases well below the costs of inflation."What [lawmakers] were doing is eliminating the only mechanism that was allowing these buildings to operate financially. All these loans on these buildings are inverted," says Jay Martin, executive director of the Community Housing Improvement Program (CHIP), a trade association of building owners.With the future potential rents at these buildings suddenly curtailed by regulation, the value of these buildings has dropped substantially.*CHIP released a report last week showing plummeting values of rent-stabilized buildings. Some two-thirds of rent-stabilized buildings are worth less than their valuations in 2018. Some individual buildings are selling for between 50 percent and 75 percent less than their last sale.NYCB lent a lot of money to building owners prior to these huge drops in valuation and is now stuck with underperforming loans and assets.Martin says many buildings are no longer able to operate profitably or finance needed repairs. Either government subsidies or changes to the state's rent stabilization law to entice private investment are needed to keep these buildings afloat. Some building owners are leasing out their entire buildings to non-profits. Some are talking about walking away from their buildings entirely.It's a remarkable situation indeed when residential real estate in one of the most expensive cities in the world can't turn a profit without government subsidies.In one sense, this is an example of rent control doing what rent control supporters want it to do. The 2019 regulatory regime is doing a pretty comprehensive job of keeping rents below market rates and preventing landlords from taking their properties off the market.But because the law can't also force the value of rent-stabilized buildings to stay the same or force investors to sink money into money-losing buildings, the capital needed to maintain these buildings is going elsewhere. Banks and building owners are suffering the consequences now. Soon enough, tenants in dilapidated, unprofitable units will too.(...)
US Treasury unit proposes anti-money laundering rules for fund advisersFeb 13 (Reuters) - The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), a unit of the U.S. Treasury, proposed new regulations on Tuesday that would require investment advisers to help prevent money laundering and the financing of terrorism.The announcement comes a week after the agency proposed similar rules for the real estate sector, part of a wider effort to plug what officials say are holes in the regulatory system that can otherwise allow alleged criminals, corrupt foreign officials and sanctions-barred people and companies to access the U.S. financial system.(...)
US seeks to crack down on real estate money laundering with new ruleWASHINGTON, Feb 7 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department's financial crimes unit on Wednesday proposed a long-awaited plan aimed at curbing the flow of illicit funds through American real estate markets.The proposal, detailed by the Treasury Department's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) on Wednesday, would require real estate professionals to flag suspicious activity seen in cash residential home purchases.Title insurance companies, lawyers and certain other professionals involved in such deals would have to file reports for any non-financed sale or transfer of residential properties to an entity or trust, according to FinCEN's proposal.If finalized, the new rule would replace a patchwork system that anti-corruption advocates have said has allowed bad actors to hide the proceeds of illicit activity by buying homes through legal entities or trusts, without financing.Last year, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that criminals for decades have anonymously hidden such ill-gotten gains in real estate, estimating $2.3 billion was laundered through U.S. real estate between 2015 and 2020.(...)
El publirreportaje del díahttps://www.expansion.com/inmobiliario/mercado/2024/02/13/65cb4154e5fdea463d8b4582.htmlAhora el crecimiento va a ser desmedido. Ya estamos más cerca de vertiginoso