PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Invierno 2024

[el malo]

Pero si Powell no ha dicho que va a bajar tipos, sino que necesita más evidencias para bajar tipos. Lo de los periodistas y la generación de expectativas es de traca

Iba a comentar lo mismo. Las dosis de autoengaño necesarias ya son de vergüenza.

El titular: LA FED CONFIRMA LA BAJADA DE TIPOS. El contenido: la FED confirma que, si todo va bien y el Bilbao gana la Copa del Rey y se clasifica para la Champions, bajará tipos a final de año*. *Siempre y cuando se alcancen los objetivos de inflación.

Parece que el PLU mundial y los himbersores (en ladrillo y en chicharros) ya han perdido la esperanza de una bajada en la primera mitad del año y se contentan con una a finales. A ver si hay suficiente oxígeno en la bombona para aguantar. Lo que sería el puntazo definitivo es una subidita de un cuarto de punto, así por las risas. Alguno saltaba por la ventana al estilo del 29.

Como diría saturno, por fin me estoy empezando a divertir.

[Benzino Napaloni]

Pero si Powell no ha dicho que va a bajar tipos, sino que necesita más evidencias para bajar tipos. Lo de los periodistas y la generación de expectativas es de traca

Iba a comentar lo mismo. Las dosis de autoengaño necesarias ya son de vergüenza.

El titular: LA FED CONFIRMA LA BAJADA DE TIPOS. El contenido: la FED confirma que, si todo va bien y el Bilbao gana la Copa del Rey y se clasifica para la Champions, bajará tipos a final de año*. *Siempre y cuando se alcancen los objetivos de inflación.

Parece que el PLU mundial y los himbersores (en ladrillo y en chicharros) ya han perdido la esperanza de una bajada en la primera mitad del año y se contentan con una a finales. A ver si hay suficiente oxígeno en la bombona para aguantar. Lo que sería el puntazo definitivo es una subidita de un cuarto de punto, así por las risas. Alguno saltaba por la ventana al estilo del 29.

Como diría saturno, por fin me estoy empezando a divertir.

A ver, que parecéis nuevos . El titular es para dejar la impresión que se quiere transmitir. Quien tenga ese interés ya ni se molesta en leer el desarrollo.

No es fácil procesar el duelo, descubrir que el rescate de 2012 que creían que era por ellos no lo era. Que les cogió de rebote porque no quedaba otra pero que el rescate era realmente para el sistema entero. Y que esta vez se van a caer con todo el equipo. Parece que el escudo sí que está puesto, después de todo.

Veremos los ríos que tinta que correrán si en junio se mantienen los tipos.

[tomasjos]

[El adiós de Victoria Nuland —y con ella, el de su marido Robert Kagan— tiene mucho significado. Aunque parezca mentira, es rusa por parte de padre. Este es un evento de gran calidad estructuraltransicionista.]

Victoria Nuland es la señora que organizó el golpe de estado - inconstitucional por supuesto- contra el presidente ucraniano Yakunovitch, que era prorruso, y que se habia inclinado por unirse a la Union Euroasiatica en vez de a la UE porque Rusia ofrecia mas dinero a Ucrania a cambio, lo qur provoco que las regiones del Este y Sur de Ucrania se levantasen contra el golpe y, a partir de ahí, ya saben todos el resto. Es la misma señora que cuando se le advirtió de que a la UE no le iba a gustar nada lo que estaba organizando dijo, " que se joda la UE". Casada con Robert Kagan, uno de los neocon más peligrosos, es ciertamente de  ascendencia rusa, al igual que su marido. Cualquiera diría que tiene alguna cuenta pendiente con su país de origen y ha estado cobrándosela.

Por otro lado está claro que el ataque a Rusia formaba párte de la estrategia neocon para el nuevo siglo americano, que consistía en asegurar el acceso de los Estados Unidos a las fuentes de recursos y la eliminación de posibles rivales en el siglo XXI. Curiosamente estos neocons eran la mayoría troskos en su juventud, discípulos de Karl Strauss, que a su vez lo era de Karl Schmidt el jurista aleman que creo el soporte legal del estado nacionalsocialista alemán.

PD Edito para comentar que Nuland se va, no la echan. O al menos es lo que parece. Es más un " he hecho mi trabajo" que un cambio de política en la administración Biden.

No pasa el filtro de wikipedia:

Tras la huida del presidente de Ucrania Víktor Yanukóvich en dirección desconocida el 21 de febrero de 2014,38​ la Rada Suprema destituyó del cargo a Yanukóvich por «el abandono de sus funciones constitucionales».39​ El 23 de febrero de 2014, el jefe del grupo parlamentario del Partido de las Regiones que lideraba Yanukóvich, Oleksandr Yefrémov, responsabilizó a Yanukóvich del saqueo del país y del derramamiento de sangre.40​

[...]

Los sucesos se habían desencadenado en Kiev la noche del 21 de noviembre de 2013, un día después de que el Gobierno de Ucrania hubiera suspendido in extremis la firma del Acuerdo de Asociación y el Acuerdo de Libre Comercio con la Unión Europea (UE).1​

Aunque el 30 de marzo de 2012, Yanukóvich y los líderes de la UE habían acordado un estatuto de asociación de Ucrania con la UE, la entrada en vigor se fue aplazando y las negociaciones quedaron estancadas durante un año, entre otras razones porque una de las exigencias europeas era la liberación de Yulia Timoshenko y Yuri Lutsenko, opositores al Gobierno. Ello no impidió que durante los meses previos al inicio de las protestas, Yanukóvich prometiera realizar las reformas necesarias para seguir adelante con las negociaciones.

Victoria Nuland
https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victoria_Nuland

Euromaidán
https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euromaid%C3%A1n

Wikipedia es proocidental, no es criterio para nada en politica. Más aún, los editores tienen un sesgo político evidente que hemos sufrido en IzqEsp cuando nos han borrado las entradas referentes al partido.

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/a8e9bf7c-3cf4-444b-a9d1-3088ea7e7bd4

NYCB core deposits shrink by more than $12bn

New York Community Bank’s core deposits shrunk just over $12bn, or nearly half of its total uninsured deposits, in three days following a deposit downgrade last weekend from Moody’s that caused a cash crunch and led the company to seek a deal, the bank said on Thursday.

NYCB also said it would cut its dividend to 1 cent a share. It had been paying regular quarterly dividends of 17 cents a share, which it cut to 5 cents for the final quarter of last year.

On Wednesday, the bank said a group of investors led by the investment firm of former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin would invest $1bn in the bank, buying new shares.

Shares of NYCB fell following the news of the deal but rebounded by the end of the day. Shares of NYCB were up slightly in pre-market trading on Thursday.

EU births drop to record low

The number of babies born in the EU dropped below 4mn for the first time on record in 2022, according to new official statistics highlighting the bloc’s demographic challenges.



In 2022, there were 3.88mn babies born in the EU, down from 4.09mn in the previous year and the lowest since comparable data began in 1960, Eurostat data showed on Thursday. The figure is down from 4.4mn only a decade ago.

The figures show that the fall in births was geographically widespread with Greece, Ireland and Estonia showing a double-digit annual fall.

The low figure could add to economic and fiscal challenges for the bloc, potentially resulting in a reduced workforce and lower tax revenues.

[Benzino Napaloni]

El BCE deja los tipos sin cambios, en el 4,5%, aunque destaca avances con la inflación

Como en los concursos, todo el mundo a coro. Acaban de perder una bajada de tipos. ¡Oooooohhhhh!

 

[tomasjos]

Y al mismo tiempo que los tipos se mantenían, se publica que hemos llegado a los precios de 2008.

https://www.abc.es/economia/precio-vivienda-libre-sube-2023-acerca-niveles-20240307120358-nt.html

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-07/ecb-interest-rates-held-as-weaker-inflation-raises-prospect-of-cuts

ECB Interest Rates Held as Weaker Inflation Raises Prospect of Cuts

Deposit rate kept at 4%, as expected by all analysts in poll
New projections show weaker price growth, economic expansion

The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged for a fourth meeting as a softer outlook for inflation and economic growth bolstered expectations for cuts starting in June.

The deposit rate was kept at a record 4% — as all economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted. The Governing Council reiterated that maintaining this level of borrowing costs for “sufficiently long” will make a “substantial contribution” to returning consumer-price growth to the 2% goal.

“There are signs that growth in wages is starting to moderate,” President Christine Lagarde told reporters Thursday in Frankfurt, saying she expects inflation to continue to slow. “In addition, profits are absorbing part of the rising labor costs, which reduces the inflationary effects.”

Traders added to bets on monetary easing following the ECB’s announcement, now seeing a full percentage point of rate reductions in 2024 compared with about 93 basis points previously. The euro traded down 0.2% at $1.0874, while the yield on 10-year German debt was six basis points lower at 2.26%.

The ECB, like the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, is contemplating when to sound the all-clear on inflation and begin undoing the unprecedented monetary tightening deployed to subdue it. While price growth in the 20-nation euro zone is nearing the target, policymakers there are wary of cutting too soon and want assurance that wage increases are under control.



Their latest quarterly outlook puts inflation at 2.3% this year — down from 2.7% in December — and revises the 2025 forecast down to 2%. The economy, meanwhile, is seen expanding by 0.6% in 2024 versus 0.8% previously.

“The Governing Council will continue to follow a data-dependent approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction,” the ECB said in a statement. “Although most measures of underlying inflation have eased further, domestic price pressures remain high, in part owing to strong growth in wages.”

The majority of officials have been converging around a June cut timeline — even if some would like swifter action as the continent’s economy struggles to exit more than a year of stagnation.

For that reason, many politicians also crave looser financial conditions. “A cut in rates could help boost growth, which is low across Europe,” Italian Finance Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti said last week. “I think I’m not the only one who shares this view.”

While policymakers are more confident that inflation is receding sustainably, most deem it too soon to declare victory and want to see more data backing the retreat before giving the green light for monetary loosening.

February inflation, at 2.6%, came in a touch stronger than expected — supporting those who don’t want to rush into lowering rates. A Nowcast compiled by Bloomberg Economics, however, shows March inflation at 2% — suggesting the ECB is closer to its target than it may think.

Whatever the reality, most policymakers are keen to examine the drip feed of wage data due over the coming months before acting. They even include doves like Greece’s Yannis Stournaras, who said recently that the ECB “won’t have enough information” to decide on cuts before June.

In the US, the Fed “does not expect that it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%,” Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday.

The Bank for International Settlements is similarly circumspect, warning this week that the current dominance of services in overall price growth may lead to more stubborn inflation and demand tighter policy.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-07/signa-founder-benko-files-for-personal-insolvency-in-austria

Signa Founder Benko Files for Personal Insolvency in Austria

Rene Benko, the founder of the ailing Signa conglomerate, filed for personal insolvency at an Austrian court that was in the process of reviewing his personal finances.

Benko made the filing voluntarily, Norbert Wess, a lawyer for the businessman told Bloomberg by email, confirming earlier media reports by the Kronen Zeitung newspaper.(...)

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/65b77e89-6c4f-4820-b697-5c3852909ada

Joe Biden to propose big tax rises for billionaires and corporate America

Plans come as president attempts to boost his standing with Americans on the economy ahead of election

The Biden administration will target billionaires and corporate America with sweeping tax rises as part of a plan to cut the US’s record national debt and boost the president in the polls ahead of November’s election.

The proposals, expected to be unveiled in Thursday’s State of the Union address and over the following week, include an increase in the minimum corporate tax from 15 per cent to 21 per cent, as well as a 25 per cent minimum tax for billionaires.

The plans are intended to cut the US’s record national debt by $3tn over the next decade. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the independent fiscal watchdog, the country’s debt pile had reached $26.2tn by the end of 2023.(...)

[sudden and sharp]

[El adiós de Victoria Nuland —y con ella, el de su marido Robert Kagan— tiene mucho significado. Aunque parezca mentira, es rusa por parte de padre. Este es un evento de gran calidad estructuraltransicionista.]

Victoria Nuland es la señora que organizó el golpe de estado - inconstitucional por supuesto- contra el presidente ucraniano Yakunovitch, que era prorruso, y que se habia inclinado por unirse a la Union Euroasiatica en vez de a la UE porque Rusia ofrecia mas dinero a Ucrania a cambio, lo qur provoco que las regiones del Este y Sur de Ucrania se levantasen contra el golpe y, a partir de ahí, ya saben todos el resto. Es la misma señora que cuando se le advirtió de que a la UE no le iba a gustar nada lo que estaba organizando dijo, " que se joda la UE". Casada con Robert Kagan, uno de los neocon más peligrosos, es ciertamente de  ascendencia rusa, al igual que su marido. Cualquiera diría que tiene alguna cuenta pendiente con su país de origen y ha estado cobrándosela.

Por otro lado está claro que el ataque a Rusia formaba párte de la estrategia neocon para el nuevo siglo americano, que consistía en asegurar el acceso de los Estados Unidos a las fuentes de recursos y la eliminación de posibles rivales en el siglo XXI. Curiosamente estos neocons eran la mayoría troskos en su juventud, discípulos de Karl Strauss, que a su vez lo era de Karl Schmidt el jurista aleman que creo el soporte legal del estado nacionalsocialista alemán.

PD Edito para comentar que Nuland se va, no la echan. O al menos es lo que parece. Es más un " he hecho mi trabajo" que un cambio de política en la administración Biden.

No pasa el filtro de wikipedia:

Tras la huida del presidente de Ucrania Víktor Yanukóvich en dirección desconocida el 21 de febrero de 2014,38​ la Rada Suprema destituyó del cargo a Yanukóvich por «el abandono de sus funciones constitucionales».39​ El 23 de febrero de 2014, el jefe del grupo parlamentario del Partido de las Regiones que lideraba Yanukóvich, Oleksandr Yefrémov, responsabilizó a Yanukóvich del saqueo del país y del derramamiento de sangre.40​

[...]

Los sucesos se habían desencadenado en Kiev la noche del 21 de noviembre de 2013, un día después de que el Gobierno de Ucrania hubiera suspendido in extremis la firma del Acuerdo de Asociación y el Acuerdo de Libre Comercio con la Unión Europea (UE).1​

Aunque el 30 de marzo de 2012, Yanukóvich y los líderes de la UE habían acordado un estatuto de asociación de Ucrania con la UE, la entrada en vigor se fue aplazando y las negociaciones quedaron estancadas durante un año, entre otras razones porque una de las exigencias europeas era la liberación de Yulia Timoshenko y Yuri Lutsenko, opositores al Gobierno. Ello no impidió que durante los meses previos al inicio de las protestas, Yanukóvich prometiera realizar las reformas necesarias para seguir adelante con las negociaciones.

Victoria Nuland
https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victoria_Nuland

Euromaidán
https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euromaid%C3%A1n

Wikipedia es proocidental, no es criterio para nada en politica. Más aún, los editores tienen un sesgo político evidente que hemos sufrido en IzqEsp cuando nos han borrado las entradas referentes al partido.

Reconoce, tomasjos, que nos has puesto tu interpretación sin más, ni un enlace ni un nada.




Y yo me he limitado a ponerte lo de la wiki, que sí tiene sus enlaces y demás. Entre tú y la wikipedia, nos quedamos todos con la última. Llamanos pejigueros o lo que quieras... Pero la Wikipedia tiene un prestigio que no tienes tú. (Ni ninguno de nosotros, como tales, ojo.)

[Derby]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-powell-says-aware-policy-155508841.html

Fed's Powell says aware of policy risks to workers, but cuts depend on inflation

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told U.S. lawmakers on Thursday the central bank was "well aware" of the risks its tough monetary policy posed to workers, but said rate cuts would depend on the economy evolving as the Fed expects, with continued lower inflation.

Powell, appearing before the Senate Banking Committee, was pressed by the panel's chair, Ohio Democrat Sherrod Brown, on why the Fed was not quicker to cut rates "to prevent workers from losing their jobs."

"We're well aware of that risk, of course, and very conscious of avoiding it," Powell said. "If what we expect and what we're seeing - continued strong growth, strong labor market...progress in bringing inflation down - if the economy evolves over that path, then we do think that the process of carefully removing restrictive...policy...can and will begin over the course of this year."

Powell's appearance in the Senate follows a hearing before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday at which he repeated that ongoing progress in lowering inflation was "not assured."

[Derby]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/february-employment-report-likely-to-show-198-000-new-jobs-still-too-much-for-feds-liking-c26dd9c6

February employment report likely to show 198,000 new jobs. Still too much for Fed’s liking.

Unemployment rate forecast to stay at low 3.7%

The U.S. economy was supposed to stop producing so many jobs once the Federal Reserve began to jack up interest rates nearly two years ago. Well, hiring has slowed, but not by much.

Here’s what to watch in the February employment report on Friday.

The headline number

The U.S. economy is forecast to show a 198,000 increase in new jobs in February, but estimates range far and wide.

Why the uncertainty? A handful of labor-market measures suggest hiring has slowed more than the government’s official employment report lets on.

Take ADP, the company that processes the paychecks for millions of American workers. The firm’s numbers show a much smaller increase in employment since last summer: an average of 128,000 new jobs a month.

By contrast, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported employment gains of 353,000 and 333,000 in the past two months alone — totals that blew through Wall Street SPX DJIA forecasts.

The number of new private-sector jobs created over the past six months, what’s more, has also been a lot higher at 199,000 a month, based on BLS figures.

Unemployment rate

The level of unemployment is expected to hold steady in February at a remarkably low 3.7%. That’s close to a 55-year low.

Historically the jobless rate has topped 5% and usually 6% or more after the Federal Reserve began a cycle of interest-rate increases.

It hasn’t happened this time around. The Fed itself predicts the unemployment rate is unlikely to rise much above 4%.

Wage growth

The Fed views a slower increase in wages as evidence its fight against inflation is succeeding. But wages shot up in January, temporarily halting the optimism.

Wages are expected to slow in February. Forecasters predict a more mild 0.2% increase in hourly pay after a 0.6% spike in the prior month

The increase in wages over the past 12 months could slow a tick or two from 4.5% in January.

The Fed wants to see annual wage growth decelerate to around 3%, a level it sees as consistent with low inflation.

January revisions

The 353,000 increase in employment in January was a bit of a shocker.

Some analysts suspect the report exaggerated the hiring gains. They will be watching to see if the government’s updated figure show somewhat less robust hiring, which would be welcome news to the Fed.

Fed officials want to see the labor market cool off further to give them more confidence that inflation is waning, making it easier for them to justify a reduction in interest rates.

Labor market oddities

One oddity in the official employment report is a recent decline in the percentage of able-bodied Americans in the labor force.

This so-called participation rate typically rises — not declines —when the economy is adding lots of new jobs. Instead, the participation rate sagged to 62.5% in January from a four-year high of 62.8% last fall.

A separate employment survey of households, meanwhile, also shows no net job growth since last July. That’s another oddity.

The household survey is less accurate than the survey of businesses from which the government compiles its headline job increase each month.

These two surveys converge over time, but right now they are telling two different stories.

[Derby]

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-07/ecb-is-watching-commercial-real-estate-closely-guindos-says

ECB Is Watching Commercial Real Estate Closely, Guindos Says

The European Central Bank still views commercial real estate contagion as one of the main risks for financial stability and is actively monitoring the situation, Vice President Luis de Guindos said.

Speaking to reporters in Frankfurt on Thursday after a monetary-policy decision, he acknowledged that fallout has been limited but that officials remain watchful for any ripples spreading from the impact of high borrowing costs and plunging valuations.

“There are some banks that have higher exposure and a higher concentration in their balance sheets to commercial real estate,” Guindos said. “This is something that we have been monitoring very closely.”

New York Community Bancorp’s need for a cash injection this week showcase the continuing challenges faced by lenders with exposure to the sector. Guindos, the ECB’s chief official for financial stability, says he and colleagues are taking no chances, even though financial institutions in the region have only “limited” exposure.

“We have indicated several times that the exposure of the non banks is much bigger than the exposure of the banks,” he said. “This is something that we have been looking at very carefully, and is one of the main risks for financial stability at present.”

[Derby]

Ya lo anunció Biden hace unos días: la vivienda será uno de los ejes de la campaña presidencial.



https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/03/07/fact-sheet-president-biden-announces-plan-to-lower-housing-costs-for-working-families/