PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Invierno 2024

[Derby]

https://www.newsweek.com/walgreens-lays-off-hundreds-store-closures-loom-1880567

Walgreens Lays Off Hundreds As Store Closures Loom

Walgreens has laid of hundreds of employees in two different states amid cost-cutting measures at the company that includes paring down its physical stores and reducing staff numbers amid a shift in strategy in the business.

On Monday, the company told Newsweek that it will cut nearly 650 jobs in Dayville, Connecticut, and Orlando, Florida, as it reevaluates its business.

"We are focused on aligning our operational structure to best serve our patients and customers. This includes an evaluation of our distribution center operations in order to streamline capacities to best support our stores," a company official told Newsweek in a statement.

"After a careful review, we've made the difficult decision to close our distribution centers in Dayville, Connecticut, and Orlando, Florida, resulting in the elimination of approximately 646 total roles."

Last summer, the company said that it will close 450 stores—300 in the United Kingdom and 150 in the U.S.—as part of cross-cutting measures. The company also said at the same time that there were going to institute a "restructuring" of the organization.(...)

[CHOSEN]

Ya dije mas veces que el PSOE sanchista, corrupto y traidor hasta usar el parlamento para dar el pésame por un etarra suicidado, es la mejor opción para hacer la transición estructural.
Hasta ahí estoy al 100% con el maestro.
Pero la realidad es esa que comentas: que Ayuso es tan mala que morirá en el cargo de vieja, como Franco. Que estamos a dos telediarios de que el proyecto socialdemócrata descarrile, que los comunistas piscineros han sido inhabilitados, y que las amistades sociatas son etarras y prófugos de la justicia. Si el PSOE pierde las elecciones, tendrá que compartir pancarta con ellos.
Y quien sabe si hasta parabellums 
El pisito está tan integrado en el ADN de tantas generaciones, que la respuesta democrática puede ser letal. El PP va a explotar eso hasta que no quede nada en pie. Y un PSOE en la oposicion seguramente haga el resto.

[Derby]

Tendrá que ver con la valoración real de sus activos inmobiliarios 

https://www.ft.com/content/b16b0375-c5ab-4f84-9e28-f751c9e56851

Donald Trump’s lawyers say he cannot raise bond in $464mn New York fraud case

Former president is asking court to delay enforcement after Trump Organization approached 30 surety companies

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-18/morgan-stanley-s-shalett-warns-us-stocks-at-risk-in-dollar-regime-shift

Morgan Stanley Warns US Stocks at Risk in ‘Dollar Regime Shift’

Easy financial conditions, strong dollar have boosted stocks
But weakening greenback threatens to weigh on equity multiples

The chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management has a warning for stock bulls: the structural forces weighing on the dollar are threatening to spread to US equities in turn.

“Consider preparing for a US dollar regime shift,” cautioned Lisa Shalett. Deteriorating relations with China, the end of yield curve management in Japan and rising Bitcoin and commodity prices suggest the currency’s run “might be hitting its limit.”

“While correlation is not causation, the correlation of US dollar strength to P/E ratios is worth monitoring now that the greenback’s bull market cycle may be maturing,” she wrote in a note Monday.

According to Shalett, that dollar strength has been at the “heart of an easy money regime” in the US — by pushing down import-related inflation and pressuring energy prices lower — that has boosted the performance of the equity market of late.



Shalett recently encouraged investors to look abroad for future stock returns as a hedge against a potential correction in US equities. She, along with a handful of others on Wall Street have cautioned on the latest bull run in stocks even as US benchmarks continue to reach new milestones.

After falling nearly 3% in 2023, the greenback got off to a hot start this year as traders rapidly dialed back expectations of monetary easing from the Federal Reserve. But those gains have stalled even as bets on the pace of rate cuts were further reined in. A Bloomberg gauge of the dollar has slipped 0.5% this March while Bitcoin and gold prices traded to recent, record highs.

Pressuring the dollar is the prospect of Bank of Japan tightening its policy even as major Group-of-10 peers cut interest rates, that should boost the yen and Japanese rates and repatriation flows out of US equities, Shalett said. Fractured US-China relations, especially in the midst of the US presidential election, also threaten to accelerate de-dollarization — a move perhaps reflected in rising gold prices — she said.

A broader downtrend in the dollar would then flow through to US stocks via earnings multiples, the expansion of which has been responsible for much of the market’s recent gains.

“If global policy starts rebalancing toward a pre-GFC mix, or market euphoria ushers in a capital markets bust and a weaker dollar, investors may benefit from more asset and geographic diversification,” Shalett said.

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/537a9365-df30-4348-b791-b44cab2708ae

Europe’s top banking supervisor warns of tougher times ahead

Claudia Buch says eurozone lenders face rising insolvencies, geopolitical risks and upheaval in energy-intensive industries

European banks must brace themselves for rising insolvencies, greater geopolitical risks and upheaval in energy-intensive industries, the eurozone’s new chief banking supervisor has warned.

Claudia Buch, who became chair of the European Central Bank’s supervisory arm in January, said in an interview with the Financial Times that banks were “not out of the woods yet” despite emerging in what she said was a “good position” after the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The ECB’s increase in its benchmark interest rate to a record high of 4 per cent to tackle soaring inflation last year “still has to filter its way through the financial system”, Buch said, adding that bankruptcies and loan defaults were likely to keep rising for some time.

“It’s just extremely unlikely that we would have a period of structural change where there’s no increase in defaults,” she said. Europe’s “industrial regions will look very different in the future, depending on the availability of renewable energy in different countries”.

“We will have more relocation of activities, we will have more sectoral relocation . . . firms have to adjust,” she predicted. “This is something banks have to factor in.”

European insolvencies fell sharply in 2020-22 when governments provided vast amounts of aid to companies to blunt the impact of the pandemic and the energy crisis caused by Russia’s war. But they have since risen higher than pre-pandemic levels, as stagnant growth, rising borrowing costs and high energy prices took their toll on more companies.



Banks in the region have enjoyed a surge in profits as low defaults and high interest rates boosted lending margins. This has put them on course to return more than €120bn to shareholders in 2024, up more than 50 per cent from last year.

Yet Buch worries about complacency because the methods banks use to gauge risk are too backward-looking. “Most of the risk models that the banks are using don’t really give us a story about how risks will evolve in the future, because they are based on the past,” she said.

Promising to be “very vigilant” on this issue, Buch wants lenders to use more specific scenarios to map out how risks may materialise in the future. “Take, for example, the Red Sea scenario, or sources of fragmentation of global supply chains: how would that affect the specific corporate customers, the sectors to which the bank is exposed?” she said.

Buch, who was previously vice-president of Germany’s Bundesbank, is not well known to many bank executives and analysts. But her tough message is already starting to sink in. Andrea Filtri, co-head of research at Mediobanca, last week described the “Buch doctrine” as “a new philosophy of regulation, based on a greater emphasis on ‘unknown unknowns’.”

Shares of European banks still trade at a significant discount to their US rivals and some executives — such as UBS chief Sergio Ermotti — have blamed excessive regulation for holding back lenders in Europe.

Yet Buch gave these claims short shrift. “This is what we also sometimes hear from industry — that we are too strict,” she said, adding that the ECB had calculated how US rules would affect the biggest European banks and found their capital requirements would be higher.

“If anything, we don’t find evidence that our rules are stricter for these largest banks,” she said. “For Europe’s smaller and mid-sized banks, US regulation would result in slightly lower capital requirements. But I’m quite glad about our stricter approach, given what happened recently at several mid-sized US banks.”

She pointed out that the valuation gap between European and US banks was similar in other sectors of the economy. “So that brings us to a broader question. What is driving these differences in valuations?” she said, pointing out it could reflect Europe’s thinner and more illiquid capital markets, or its lower growth potential.

Banks also privately complain about the ECB’s recent threat to impose daily fines on those that do not meet its expectations for tackling climate change risks, saying companies are not providing them with the information they need.

Buch said it was “realistic” for banks to meet those requirements, and gave the example of energy-efficiency certificates for mortgages. “That is something one can, in most of the countries, easily get at a certain price,” she said. But, she added, “even in that space, we’re seeing deficiencies, so the banks are not getting the information that they should get in order to assess these risks”.

The threat of daily fines, while yet to be enforced, is “a general escalation tool that we would use for other issues”, Buch said.

Such issues could range from banks’ outdated IT systems to shortfalls in data aggregation and reporting. The ECB is also in the middle of a stress test exercise to assess banks’ defences against cyber attacks, which Buch said “have gone up” in recent years.

Her team continues to put pressure on European banks with operations in Russia to exit. Buch said eurozone banks had cut their Russian activities by half in the past two years and those still present, which include Italy’s UniCredit and Austria’s Raiffeisen, had been given “clear expectations on how we expect a downsizing of activities and exit strategies”.

[conejo]

El medio de moda:

https://theobjective.com/elsubjetivo/opinion/2024-03-18/ladran-luego-cabalgamos/

[Saturio]

Cuando tengo que posicionarme en algo y quiero estar cubierto y con buena excusa ante una respuesta en contra del peticionario, siempre lo tengo que consultar.
Y es probable que sea mi almohada y no con nadie que mande sobre mi.  Aunque me interesa que así lo crea el peticionario.


Sds.

Que conste que con eso de "los de arriba ya lo han decidido" no me refiero a ningún ente extraño.
A lo que me refería es que Margarita forma parte de una estructura y ella no ocupa el primer escalafón en esa estructura.
Los que están en los diversos escalafones de esa estructura no se deben a nadie, salvo a  la propia estructura.

Me leo a mi mismo y parece que estoy leyendo a un trumpista hablar del deep state.
Pero es que es así. ¿No?.
Nadie se ha atrevido a preguntar a los europeos o a los españoles lo que piensan sobre el asunto.
Se ha decidido y ya está.
Otra cosa es que no está muy claro lo que se ha decidido. Básicamente, supongo, que se va a subir lo que hay en el stake para que Ucrania no pierda la guerra, sin ponerse límites.

[sudden and sharp]

Cuando tengo que posicionarme en algo y quiero estar cubierto y con buena excusa ante una respuesta en contra del peticionario, siempre lo tengo que consultar.
Y es probable que sea mi almohada y no con nadie que mande sobre mi.  Aunque me interesa que así lo crea el peticionario.


Sds.

Que conste que con eso de "los de arriba ya lo han decidido" no me refiero a ningún ente extraño.
A lo que me refería es que Margarita forma parte de una estructura y ella no ocupa el primer escalafón en esa estructura.
Los que están en los diversos escalafones de esa estructura no se deben a nadie, salvo a  la propia estructura.

Me leo a mi mismo y parece que estoy leyendo a un trumpista hablar del deep state.
Pero es que es así. ¿No?.
Nadie se ha atrevido a preguntar a los europeos o a los españoles lo que piensan sobre el asunto.
Se ha decidido y ya está.
Otra cosa es que no está muy claro lo que se ha decidido. Básicamente, supongo, que se va a subir lo que hay en el stake para que Ucrania no pierda la guerra, sin ponerse límites.

En este tema, como casi siempre, hay que fijarse en lo que hacen. Ni caso a lo que digan.

Ejemplo:

Lo que se puede leer. (Hay muro.)

Dinamarca implanta la mili obligatoria para las mujeres por la amenaza de Rusia
https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2024/03/18/65f851a0fdddff5f038b4588.html
Se ampliará de los cuatro meses a once. Los primeros cinco meses serán un curso básico y los últimos seis, los reclutas formarán parte de las Fuerzas Armadas




Pero al buscar en google: "mili mujeres dinamarca", google da también un resumencillo:

"La primera ministra desea introducir la mili obligatoria para las mujeres, una medida que entraría en vigor en 2026. Hasta ahora, y desde 1998, las mujeres han tenido la posibilidad de realizar el servicio militar de forma voluntaria a través de la llamada ley de conscripción."

... que ya se ve que no es lo mismo. ¿Tiene mayoría? ¿Globo sonda?

[Derby]

https://www.aol.com/top-real-estate-ceo-sees-175538013.html

Top real-estate CEO sees decades of housing pain ahead: ‘What the Fed did will have a 30-year tail on it’

The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate: maximum employment and price stability. When inflation began creeping up (eventually hitting a four-decade high), the Fed took action. The Fed raised interest rates 11 times in less than two years, and as a result, mortgage rates skyrocketed. The historically low mortgage rates people were used to, were gone. So anyone who locked in a below-market rate, or were simply mortgage free, held onto their homes because to sell would mean giving up an insanely low rate that may never return.

What that’s done is exacerbate an existing housing supply crunch. The country is missing anywhere between two million and seven million homes. The lock-in effect only made that worse by curbing for-sale inventory, despite there being some demand. The housing market froze, and existing home sales fell to their lowest point in almost 30 years. Things have improved since, but we’re not in the clear by any means, and there will likely be reverberations felt across the housing market for decades, by one chief executive’s prediction.

“What the Fed did,” Redfin’s CEO Glenn Kelman said, “will have a 30-year tail on it. There’s going to be low supply for a long time to come unless America really gets [religious] again about building houses.”

In an interview with Yahoo Finance, Kelman mentioned that supply went up for the first time in eight months in February; he called it a “tiny break in the inventory logjam.” And he does see that continuing to improve.

“We need more listings, especially of single-family homes,” he said. “Consumer demand is still strong enough that prices keep going up. Home affordability is the big issue for almost every homeowner and every potential homebuyer. We need more supply.”

So how far do mortgage rates need to fall until we get that increase in much-needed supply?

When they drop from 7% to 6%, and then 5%, it’ll unlock more inventory, Kelman said. But there are also a number of people who deferred their plans, and they can only wait so long. (The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is currently 7.11%).

“Many of the customers that we’re talking to today still don’t want to give up their 30-year mortgage at 2.5% or 3%, but they’ve just outgrown the house and they finally have to let go,” he said. “I do think that even if interest rates don’t come down significantly, we are going to see a modest uptick in inventory—but to see a big gain, you’re going to have to see a real drop in mortgage rates.”

Still, supply is a much larger and longer-term issue that won’t be solved once mortgage rates fall. The only way to really solve it is by building more homes. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said as much while testifying to Congress earlier this month. “The housing market is in a very challenging situation right now,” Powell said. “Problems associated with low rate mortgage [lock-in] and high [mortgage] rates and all that, those will abate as the economy normalizes and as rates normalize… But we’ll still be left with a housing market nationally, where there is a housing shortage.”

Kelman mentioned recent legislation in California that pushed for more accessory dwelling units and fewer environmental reviews. (We know the California Environmental Quality Act has been used time and time again to block development in the state). “That was a breakthrough that has now been mirrored in the federal government,” Kelman said, referring to President Joe Biden’s State of the Union address earlier this month, where he mentioned cutting red tape to build housing.

The chief executive touched upon the Biden administration’s recently released housing plan too, which includes a tax credit for buyers and sellers (which reveals that Biden knows nobody wants to sell their home right now). Kelman said former President Barack Obama did something similar when the country was at the “absolute bottom of the Great Financial Crisis,” and it had a meaningful effect on the housing market, to the extent that when it expired, there was a blip. That being said, he does believe Biden’s legislation would have an impact if it passes—but that’s the hard part.

“I wouldn’t bank on any legislation being passed right now,” he said. “The government is so dysfunctional, but I still think it’s very positive that we’re having this conversation at the federal level—definitely at the local and state level, it has been a massive issue.”

Both Democrats and Republicans want to build housing, Kelman said, which in itself is good news for the housing market, and “millennials who really need a place to live.”

[Benzino Napaloni]

Ya dije mas veces que el PSOE sanchista, corrupto y traidor hasta usar el parlamento para dar el pésame por un etarra suicidado, es la mejor opción para hacer la transición estructural.
Hasta ahí estoy al 100% con el maestro.
Pero la realidad es esa que comentas: que Ayuso es tan mala que morirá en el cargo de vieja, como Franco. Que estamos a dos telediarios de que el proyecto socialdemócrata descarrile, que los comunistas piscineros han sido inhabilitados, y que las amistades sociatas son etarras y prófugos de la justicia. Si el PSOE pierde las elecciones, tendrá que compartir pancarta con ellos.
Y quien sabe si hasta parabellums 
El pisito está tan integrado en el ADN de tantas generaciones, que la respuesta democrática puede ser letal. El PP va a explotar eso hasta que no quede nada en pie. Y un PSOE en la oposicion seguramente haga el resto.

Probablemente será el remate necesario. En 2011 Rajoy obtuvo un poder casi a la altura de Felipe González a principios de los 80... y lo primero que hizo fue retrasar la aprobación de los PGE para no comprometer las elecciones andaluzas de primeros de 2012. Con el resultado de sobra conocido. Más lo que vino después hasta las elecciones de 2015.

Si bien después vino el reburbujón, durante un tiempo flotó en el ambiente una sensación de rabia e impotencia. En parte culpando a Rajoy y en parte oliéndose que la "recuperación" no vendría nunca.

Sánchez seguramente agote la legislatura, o casi. Con tal de que la "agenda" esté atada, ya dará igual que la derecha vuelva al poder después de casi 10 años en la oposición.

[saturno]

Si por el contrario se calzan a Ayuso, sería un acto de traición hacía ella y un mensaje erróneo para el que venga detrás, que podría entender que el pacto social está finiquitado y que ya se puede empezar a desmantelar El Pisito.

Es que es así- 

Siguiendo la línea de Reiter y TomasJo, lo de Ayuso es una muerte politica- Anticipada y preparada.
Creo que el siguiente va a ser Macron (sólo me refiero al terreno geopolitico, no al Pisito), salvo que vuelva a limitarse a ser un clon de Canadá, estilo bloquear las cuentas de los manifestantes o bloggers, vacunar con contratos a multinacionales, y comprar equipos militares made in USA

Y sí, el Pisito está finiquitado desde 2008
Lo sabemos aquí, lo explica el maestro, y se observa en las noticias; Socimis, venta de ladrillo por los bancos

El stock de "pisito en propiedad" ya es solo un crédito tributario. Un título de propiedad es un activo, un derecho de cobro... PARA EL ESTADO.

Para 2030, la gente normal viviremos de alquiler vitalicio por 100 euros, no seremos propietarios (de nada) y seremos felices. Que lo importante es cambiar el mundo, no convertirse en esclavos deudores de nuestros progenitores.

---

Me parece que lo único que queda por decidir es si el problema demográfico se resuelve criando o con inmigración-

En este punto, es interesante leer los discursos de Putin- Han puesto  ya en marcha la transición demográfica- Ocupa los 2/3 de sus discursos,  Politica social promaternidad, dotaciones publicas (guarderías, escuelas, universidades, retiro de mayores) facilidades y anulación de la hipoteca por hijos y, claro,  incremento de la productividad por robotizacion y educación laboral (escuelas de ingenierías).
También inmigración pero con integración.

En la UE el problema ahora es que no hemos empezado la transición estructural- Pero ya la están haciendo en el resto del mundo-
Además de aislados, no estamos descolgando-

---
 
Lo del Pisito finiquitado, lo dice Claudia Buch del BCE.
Resalto yo, en rojo.

She pointed out that the valuation gap between European and US banks was similar in other sectors of the economy. “So that brings us to a broader question. What is driving these differences in valuations?” she said,
pointing out it could reflect Europe’s thinner and more illiquid capital markets, or its lower growth potential.

Y lo confirma el "zector" en la nota de prensa siguiente (post -2)
Top real-estate CEO sees decades of housing pain ahead: ‘What the Fed did will have a 30-year tail on it’


No sé cómo harán en EEUU (zona Occidente-Américas) pero lo que entiendo es que no ven que la venta de Pisitos a la gente ha terminado. Una vivienda es un bien de consumo que se ofertará en alquiler por grandes grupos, y por tanto estarán regulados de una forma un otra mediante leyes de de protección de consumidores. En este caso, consumidores de vivienda, eso es todo- Los top real-estate CEO no tienen otra salida: reconvertirse (por una fracción del salario) o desaparecer. Pero el olvido, seguro.

---
(Lo de Derby es impresionante por cómo suele apuntar a la diana. Cadavre es más completo, o más diverso, pero también supone traer artículos pagados, que solemos reconocer. Gracias a vosotros dos, sin olvidar a los que traen más artículos, aunque no podemos compararnos.)

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20240318/page/3/textview

Promotoras en busca de nuevo capital

https://www.eleconomista.es/vivienda-inmobiliario/noticias/12725400/03/24/las-grandes-promotoras-recurren-a-otros-inversores-tras-el-cierre-del-grifo-de-sus-accionistas.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20240318/page/2/textview

Financial Times (Reino Unido) | Las nuevas leyes verdes de la UE irritan a China

Les Echos (Francia) | La inflación de Francia se desacelera y baja al 3%

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12724101/03/24/la-inversion-extranjera-se-desploma-un-55-bajo-el-gobierno-de-sanchez.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12724009/03/24/la-caida-de-la-inversion-empresarial-resto-cuatro-decimas-al-pib-en-2023-.html

https://www.europapress.es/economia/noticia-restauracion-cerro-2023-aumento-107-ventas-20240315104929.html

Saludos.