PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Primavera 2024

[sudden and sharp]

GameStop Corp. Cl A - Some Fridays

Código: [Seleccionar]

0 12/04/24 10,77
1 19/04/24 10,42
2 26/04/24 11,90
3 03/05/24 16,47
4 10/05/24 17,46
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/gme

[tomasjos]

El nivel de hijoputismo en aumento. El ayuntamiento de Mallorca quiere prohibir que la gente viva en autocaravanas y les dice que vayan a los servicios sociales a solicitar una vivienda.

https://www.diariodemallorca.es/palma/2024/05/10/ayuntamiento-palma-sugiere-personas-viven-102199293.html

Nos merecemos todo lo que nos pase.

[Cadavre Exquis]

[off-topic

La libertad guiando al pueblo de Delacroix es restaurada y vuelve a exponerse en el Louvre

Berta Erill Soto · 2024.05.08

La Libertad guiando al pueblo, obra del artista Eugène Delacroix, en todo su esplendor tras la reciente restauración. Museo del Louvre

Si tuviéramos que elegir un sólo cuadro para representar el espíritu revolucionario francés, probablemente este sería La Libertad guiando al pueblo, del artista del Romanticismo Eugène Delacroix (1798-1863).

Pintado en óleo sobre lienzo en el año 1830, esta obra conmemora la Revolución de julio, tres días seguidos de revueltas que habían tenido lugar ese mismo año en la ciudad de París, donde el pueblo francés mostró su inconformidad ante el reinado de los Borbones.

Con gran lujo de detalle y realismo, Delacroix ilustra una apasionante escena que plasma el carácter de su nación. La Libertad, centrada en el cuadro y especialmente iluminada, guía a los habitantes parisinos de distintas clases sociales, desde burgueses hasta campesinos, hacia la victoria.

La personificación de la libertad en una mujer semidesnuda no es casual: por una parte, los revolucionarios asociaban la patria francesa en tiempos de la república con la figura de una joven simbólica a la que llamaron Marianne. Por otra, su torso femenino desnudo le otorga una relación con lo divino, tal y como ocurre en las representaciones de las victorias aladas o las venus helénicas.

Esta maravilla de la historia del arte se expone en el Museo del Louvre de París, donde ha permanecido desde 1848 ya sea en alguna de sus salas o en la reserva. Actualmente es una de las pinturas más famosas del museo junto con La Gioconda de Leonardo Da Vinci, también conocida como la Mona Lisa.

La icónica obra de Delacroix vuelve a exponerse en el Museo del Louvre tras su restauración. Abdullah Firas / ABACA / Shutterstock Editorial

UNA RESTAURACIÓN CON SORPRESAS

Como ocurre con todos los legados materiales de nuestra historia, la iconicidad de una obra no la libra de las consecuencias del paso del tiempo. Por este motivo, La Libertad guiando al pueblo ha tenido que pasar recientemente por un proceso de restauración llevado a cabo por dos expertas del propio museo, Bénédicte Trémolières y Laurence Mugniot.

Los trabajos empezaron el pasado mes de octubre de 2023 y han tenido una duración total de 6 meses, gracias a los cuales la obra ha podido volver a exponerse en la sala Mollien del Louvre el 2 de mayo de 2024. Así, este cuadro de gran impacto histórico podrá seguir formando parte de la cultura del país.

Durante el proceso, las restauradoras han reducido distintas capas de barniz que en la actualidad recubrían el cuadro de óxido y suciedad, modificando su coloración original y eliminando algunos de sus elementos característicos, como las texturas, las transparencias, la tridimensionalidad o los juegos entre luces y sombras.

La Libertad guiando al pueblo antes de su última restauración, donde se puede apreciar la pantalla de color amarillento que recubre el lienzo. Museo del Louvre

Esta ha sido justamente una de las sorpresas descubiertas tras los trabajos, la asombrosamente bien escogida paleta de colores y la variedad de técnicas usadas por Delacroix en su creación que data de la primera mitad del siglo XIX, que las expertas han definido como "un estilo austero pero rico en matices".

Los blancos, grises y negros, acompañados de sutiles tonalidades concretas de rojo y azul, son los colores predominantes en el cuadro, a contrario de lo que podía parecer antes de la restauración debido a la capa amarillenta que lo revestía y oscurecía sus contrastes.

Esta nueva claridad también ha revelado una serie de detalles que hacía tiempo que habían quedado invisibles, como la posición del niño que corre delante de la Libertad y no junto a ella, las distintas fachadas de los edificios que conforman el fondo de la escena, los disparos que provienen de las ventanas o los tonos que dan dimensión y movimiento a la figura de la Libertad.

No obstante, devolver el óleo sus colores no ha sido tarea fácil: las capas de barniz aplicadas en restauraciones anteriores se han tenido que diluir con mucho cuidado y paciencia para no dañar ninguna capa de su estructura original.

EL CUADRO MÁS FAMOSO

Por toda la relevancia a nivel cultural que La Libertad guiando al pueblo ha ido adquiriendo a lo largo de su historia, esta obra se considera la más famosa y reconocida del pintor Eugène Delacroix.

Su lienzo tiene un gran tamaño, de 260 centímetros de ancho por 325 de alto, y se dice que el artista tardó tan solo 4 meses en pintarlo de inicio a fin, un marco temporal sorprendentemente corto teniendo en cuenta las dimensiones del cuadro y la complejidad de la obra, culminada de forma magistral.

Saludos.

/off-topic]

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.diariovasco.com/san-sebastian/diez-camaras-vigilaran-acceso-zona-bajas-emisiones-20240509115803-nt.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.diariovasco.com/gipuzkoa/gipuzkoa-habitantes-20240509124031-nt.html

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/money/other/leasehold-scandal-one-in-ten-london-leaseholders-considering-selling-their-homes-over-escalating-costs/

Leasehold scandal: One in ten London leaseholders considering selling their homes over escalating costs

Escalating ground rents and service fees have 13 per cent of London leaseholders considering selling up, new data from Barclays has revealed.

That’s three time the national average of four per cent of leaseholders considering selling their hime.

The report found that just 35 per cent of London leaseholders feel their ground rent and service charge fees are affordable, suggesting that 65 per cent are struggling to keep up with their costs.

Only 13 per cent of leaseholders in London feel that they are getting good value for money with their ground rent and service charges.

Leaseholders reported feeling blindsided by these costs, which increase the longer the contract goes on. In London, 34 per cent of leaseholders said that they were not aware when they purchased their home of the rate at which their ground rent and service fees would increase.

“Many homeowners have been hit by high service charges in the wake of increased inflation.”Mark Arnold, Head of Savings and Mortgages at Barclays

Barclays also found also found that 29 per cent of leaseholders reported that they were concerned that they would not be able to sell their property due to the high ground rents and fees associated with it.

Most new build homes in London are leasehold. This means that the owner must pay an annual ground rent to the freeholder for the land their property is built on. Ground rent increases at a fixed rate, and can double every 10 years. Leaseholders must also eventually pay to increase their lease.

“Lenders will want to know about any financial obligations to make sure mortgage payments will be affordable alongside other outgoings.” Mark Arnold, Head of Savings and Mortgages at Barclays

Leaseholders must also make monthly payments to the company responsible for maintaining the building and the surrounding area, and for covering building insurance. Inflation has seen these costs increase – along with people’s mortgages and energy bills, all in a cost-of-living crisis.

If leaseholders fall behind on their payments, their property can be seized under forfeiture laws.

High ground rents can be a barrier to re-mortgaging or selling a leasehold property, as the buyer must be able to prove they can shoulder the future costs.

“Many homeowners have been hit by high service charges in the wake of increased inflation,” said Mark Arnold, Head of Savings and Mortgages at Barclays.

“Prospective buyers considering a leasehold property, especially in managed flats, should ask about these costs early in the process — not just for peace of mind, but also because lenders will want to know about any financial obligations to make sure mortgage payments will be affordable alongside other outgoings.”

The Leasehold and Freehold Reform Bill, currently on its second reading in the House of Lords, has outlined plans to make life easier for leaseholders.

Under the draft legislation, ground rent would be reduced to a “peppercorn rate” of 0.1 per cent of the freehold value, upon the leaseholders payment of a premium. Leases would also be granted an automatic 990-year extension.

New leasehold homes would be banned, but not leasehold flats, which account for the majority of leasehold properties in London.

Originally the government promised to outlaw the leasehold system entirely. There are also fears that the ongoing consultation over a ground rent cap is vulnerable to lobbying from investment funds with large stakes in freeholds.

[saturno]

America's Super-Elite Disconnect
Simplicius
Mar 03, 2024

v/EN= https://darkfutura.substack.com/p/americas-super-elite-disconnect
v/FR= https://lesakerfrancophone.fr/la-deconnexion-de-lelite-americaine
v/goES= https://darkfutura-substack-com.translate.goog/p/americas-super-elite-disconnect?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=es&_x_tr_hl=en-US

Last month came a fascinating new report from the institute of Scott Rasmussen, founder of the famed Rasmussen Reports polling center. Its aim was to, for the first time, quantitatively define the true ‘elite’ of society, which control most of our social narratives, politics, and general ‘orthodoxy’.
https://www.rmgresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Elite-One-Percent.pdf

It has been picked up by a variety of publications, from NYPost:

https://nypost.com/2024/01/19/opinion/shocking-survey-reveals-the-reason-elites-are-out-of-touch-and-it-isnt-why-you-think/

To Boston Globe, and others:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/01/24/opinion/real-one-percent-elites-rasmussen-poll/

The full report centered on a members-only webinar presentation by Rasmussen, but the provided PDF file summarizes the most salient survey graphics and point breakdowns.

For those interested, Rasmussen appeared on Newt Gingrich’s podcast to discuss the results, where he eloquently summarized his chief findings, as well as how he first stumbled on them.

The NYPost article summarized the dataset best:

    The United States has a wealthy, partisan elite class that’s not only immune from and numb to the problems of their countrymen, but enormously confident in and willing to impose unpopular policies on them.

    This is a recipe for disaster.

And this supplemental Newt Gingrich writeup describes just how Rasmussen first got wind of it all:

    While doing their two weekly national surveys, Rasmussen and his team noticed an anomaly. Out of every 1,000 or so respondents, there would always be three or four who were far more radical than everyone else. After several months of finding these unusual responses, Rasmussen realized they all shared three characteristics.

    The radical responses came from people who had graduate degrees (not just graduate studies), family incomes above $150,000 a year, and lived in large cities (more than 10,000 people per zip code).

What’s more, is that amongst this 1% ‘elite’, there is an even more radicalized subset Rasmussen calls the ‘super-elite’, which are characterized by primarily attending one of twelve identified elite schools:



Gingrich adds:

    Charles Murray in his classic work, “Coming Apart,” analyzed zip codes and proved that graduates from “dirty dozen” universities that Rasmussen described live, work and play in the same zip codes. They are an isolated set and create a “power aristocracy” that has no knowledge of the rest of us – and contempt for most of us. This perfectly explains Hillary Clinton’s “basket of deplorables” line.

----

Even more staggering is the vast gulf between each side’s trust in the ‘professional class’:
Check the figures: Only 6% of voters have a favorable opinion of Congress, 10% in journalists, and 17% in professors. Amongst the 1%-er elites, these numbers average above 70%; this alone tells virtually the entire story.

[Derby]

https://www.businessinsider.com/more-than-half-future-miami-condos-are-primed-for-airbnb-2024-5

Airbnbs are primed to take over Miami, which is already facing a housing crunch

*A Florida real-estate firm forecasts that 31 pre-construction condo buildings in the Miami region are ripe for Airbnbs.
*That amounts to over 10,335 units or more than 50% of projected construction, ISG Group found.   
*Rising population and home prices are already squeezing Miami real estate.


Miami, Florida. Getty/Sylvain Sonnet

A wave of new condo developments tailor-made for Airbnb and similar rental sites is set to wash over the Miami region.

So many, in fact, that they outnumber the amount of traditional rentals tagged for development over the same time.

More than 50% of total condos in the pre-construction phase across Miami-Dade County and nearby Broward County, totaling 10,335 units, are geared toward short-term rentals, a first-quarter report from real-estate firm ISG World found.

These units may not be exclusively advertised for short-term stays, CEO of ISG World Craig Studnicky told Business Insider but were grouped by little to no rental restrictions for future owners.

That means these units could, and very likely may, be used for Airbnb and similar purposes, Studnicky explained.

"We've had a development industry that is adding more short-term rentals to South Florida inventory," Studnicky told BI. "And that's not what we need."

Florida has continued to experience a major population boom and was the fastest-growing state between 2021 and 2022, with 417,000 new residents. Housing prices, in tandem, skyrocketed. The median sales price for a home in Miami hit $600,000 in March 2024, nearly double the median price of $335,000 in March 2020, according to Redfin.

It's rocked affordability in Miami, where there is currently a $1.5 billion gap to provide adequate, affordable housing for the entirety of Miami-Dade County, according to a study by the nonprofit Miami Homes for All. Altogether, the county is missing over 90,000 affordable units for renters making less than $75,000 a year, the study concluded.

Developers in the Miami region should focus on creating more traditional rentals to alleviate pressure in the market, Studnicky believes.

The ISG World report states more than 10,000 traditional rental units for Miami-Dade and Broward counties are scheduled in pre-construction, a process that will take many years to complete. In the past 10 years, Studnicky estimates a much more robust 20,000 traditional rental units were built in Miami.

"That's the number that we need just to accommodate the population gains," he told Business Insider.

Axel Springer, Insider Inc.'s parent company, is an investor in Airbnb.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-11/a-600-billion-wall-of-debt-looms-over-market-s-riskiest-stocks

A $600 Billion Wall of Debt Looms Over Market’s Riskiest Stocks

*Delay in rate cuts disrupts much-awaited rally in small caps
*Hedge funds hold one of the biggest short positions on record

US small-cap stocks are as cheap as they’ve been in decades, but with a more than half-trillion dollar mountain of debt looming over the next five years, it’s going to take a significant risk-on signal from the Federal Reserve to entice investors.

Firms in the small-capitalization Russell 2000 Index hold a total of $832 billion in debt, 75% of which — or $620 billion — needs to be refinanced through 2029, data compiled by Bloomberg shows. For comparison, companies in the big-cap S&P 500 Index have just 50% of their obligations due by then.



“No, despite attractive valuations, we won’t be buying yet,” said Marija Veitmane, senior multi-asset strategist at State Street Global Markets. “We don’t like small caps as they are much more sensitive to an economic slowdown, have much higher cost of funding, and margins are likely to be squeezed more.”

In particular, smaller companies tend to have a considerable amount of floating-rate debt, usually in the form of loans, because they often aren’t big enough to borrow in the bond market. That means their interest expenses often reset higher soon after the Fed hikes rates, while a bigger company with fixed-rate bond debt may wait longer before higher rates have a significant impact on their borrowing costs.

In addition, the performance of small companies typically is tied to how the overall economy is doing. So with economic conditions in flux and uncertainty the theme in markets at the moment, Wall Street pros are skeptical of buying into the riskiest stocks — even at seemingly bargain valuations.

The Russell 2000’s price-to-sales ratio relative to the S&P 500 is near the lowest since 2003, excluding the bottoming out during the Covid pandemic in 2020. But market participants still say the index is priced for perfection and will need a strong pickup in economic growth to trigger a rally.



“The bigger, quality names are more expensive for a reason,” said Guy Miller, chief market strategist at Zurich Insurance Co. “They tend not to have any issues around funding and are less dependent on interest rate policy.”

Lagging Performance

The Russell 2000 is up just 1.6% this year as expectations for rate cuts have dwindled to two from six in January, while the S&P 500 has gained 9.5%. But small-caps have been lagging big caps for a while, with the S&P 500 more than doubling the Russell 2000’s performance since the start of 2023.

Indeed, the small-cap index has gone two and a half years without hitting a peak — its longest stretch since the global financial crisis, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The S&P 500, on the other hand, has set and reset records 22 times in 2024.



The issue now for small-caps is the direction of rates and the economy as inflation remains more persistent than was expected at the start of the year.

Stock market positioning shows a general lack of conviction in the equities rally that started at the end of April. Investors have flocked back into the so-called Magnificent Seven technology mega-caps, which are considered safer during periods of economic uncertainty, sending the Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index up roughly 9% in the last three weeks. By contrast, hedge funds have one of their biggest net short positions in Russell 2000 futures on record, according to data from Ned Davis Research.

Earnings aren’t helping small caps either. Russell 2000 revenues for the first quarter are on pace to rise just 0.3% versus a 4% gain for the S&P 500, figures from BI show. The rest of 2024 is likely to see an “up-and-down recovery, possibly leaving the Russell 2000 a bit volatile,” strategists Michael Casper and Gina Martin Adams said.

An analysis from Bank of America Corp. showed that even if interest rates were to stay at current levels, small-cap operating earnings outside the financial sector are likely to be reduced by 32% over the next five years, given that nearly half their debt is short term or at a floating rate.

Cash Drains

Small caps are increasingly money losers, with about 42% of the Russell 2000 currently posting negative profitability, compared with less than 20% in the mid-1990s, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“The quality of companies in the Russell is significantly worse than it was 20 years ago,” said Hugh Grieves, fund manager of the Premier Miton US Opportunities fund. “You’ve had a lot more companies be able to go public that have never made a profit and probably never will.”

But Grieves also is among market forecasters who warn against dismissing all small-cap stocks. Another is David Lefkowitz, head of US equities at UBS Global Wealth Management, who sees falling interest rates by the end of the year supporting the group, and an expected pickup in business activity translating into stronger earnings.

“It’s not that small caps are bad,” said Lefkowitz, who turned overweight on the group in December. “It’s just that on a relative basis, large is doing better.”

[senslev]

https://www.elplural.com/politica/internacional/milei-coloca-terraplanista-frente-comision-ciencia-tecnologia_329806102

Pues eso, viva la libertad, carajo!

Lemoine ha sido una figura polémica, conocida por sus posturas que desafían la ciencia convencional. Entre sus declaraciones más notorias, se encuentra la afirmación de que "no existen vuelos comerciales a través del Océano Pacífico", lo que según ella, sería una evidencia de que la Tierra es plana. Además, ha cuestionado la veracidad del alunizaje, sugiriendo que podría haber sido un montaje y que desde 1972 no ha habido misiones tripuladas porque "la NASA admitió haber perdido la tecnología para volver". “¿Por qué los gobiernos del mundo quieren ocultarle a la humanidad que la Tierra es plana y que hay una gran pared de hielo que la circunda?”, llegó a preguntarse en otra ocasión. Estas declaraciones, entre otras lindeces, han causado consternación entre los defensores de la ciencia, quienes ven en ellas un rechazo a los principios básicos del método científico

[asustadísimos]

['The Housing Crunch' es parte de El Hostión.

Calígula nombró cónsul a 'Incitatus'. El cinismo de poner al frente de la Ciencia a una 'pin up' terraplanista antivacunas es parte de El Hostión.

El dramita del enamoramiento con «Sánchez, Sáánchez, Sááánchez» de La Quíntuple F (fecal, frugívora, facturera, falsaria, fea) es la grima de El Hostión en versión cañí.

La impotencia del imperio en las provincias orientales, por supuesto que es El Hostión.

El presidente del imperio en fase prostática y necesitando de exoesqueleto, y el candidato a sustituirle, humillado por una colipoterra: El Hostión.

La fachosfera acongojada anegando las cloacas con su diarrea, El Hostión.

Hostión es los tambores de misiles nucleares tácticos, cuando el único misil aquí es este:

El Hostión

De película de zombis hemos pasado a circo patético, con jokers mercenarios en lugar de payasos.

El popularcapitalismo —quizá el propio capitalismo— no quiere sabios. Quiere 'tricksters'.

Hora de morir.]

[Derby]

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/home-prices-soaring-bubble/story?id=110101842

Home prices are soaring. Is this another bubble?

"It's a strange market that seems like an anomaly," one expert said.

Roughly 15 years after a housing bubble triggered the worst U.S. financial disaster since the Great Depression, some observers are voicing concern that the industry has fallen into another bubble.

Home prices are soaring, despite high mortgage rates that in theory should crimp demand and push down prices.

The share of U.S. homeowners under serious financial strain, meanwhile, jumped slightly at the outset of this year when compared with the final months of 2023, real estate data-firm ATTOM found in a report this week.

Despite these trends, experts who spoke with ABC News largely rejected fears of a housing bubble.

The frothy prices and the strain they place on prospective homebuyers are a cause for concern, they said, but the price hikes owe to an old-fashioned imbalance between supply and demand rather than the frenzied speculation characteristic of a bubble.

"The price increases have been quite remarkable but there aren't abnormal factors driving them," Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, told ABC News. "It's simply supply and demand -- the normal reason."

Two years ago, the Federal Reserve began an aggressive series of interest rate hikes in an effort to rein in inflation. Typically, such a policy would send mortgage rates higher and drive home prices downward as homebuyers wither under steep borrowing costs. In this case, the mortgage rates soared but prices skyrocketed alongside them.

For nine consecutive months, year-over-year existing-home prices have climbed, according to data released by the National Association of Realtors in March. Going back further, the median price of an existing home has jumped nearly 40% over the past four years, NAR data shows.



"It's a strange market that seems like an anomaly," Marc Norman, associate dean at the New York University School of Professional Studies and Schack Institute of Real Estate, told ABC News. "I can certainly see people wondering if it's a bubble."

The hot prices, however, stem from a straightforward instance of too much money chasing too few homes, experts told ABC News.

During the Covid-19 pandemic, homebuilding slowed when shortages of materials and workers made input costs more expensive, Norman said. Right as the supply blockages began to fade, the Fed raised interest rates, making it more expensive for developers to borrow the money required to launch projects.

The cooldown of housing construction has contributed to a dearth of homes. Housing supply stands 3.2 million homes short of the amount needed to meet demand, real estate and investment firm Hines said in a report last month.

"We haven't built enough houses in this country and there's still a lot of demand," Christopher Mayer, a real estate professor at the Columbia University Business School, told ABC News. "The interest rates have made it more expensive to build and homes have gotten more costly."

The current housing shortage contrasts sharply with the housing bubble that led to the Great Recession, experts said.

Back then, a sharp rise in prices drove a surge of homebuilding, which fueled an oversupply of housing. The abundance of homes, in turn, drove buyers to scoop up a property -- or multiple properties -- as appreciating assets rather than places to live. When new buyers couldn't be found and the music stopped, prices crashed.

Prices stand unusually high in the current market but the shortage of housing places a limit on how far they can fall, since the lack of options for buyers will continue to push upward on prices, Ken Johnson, a real estate economist at Florida Atlantic University, told ABC News.

"I don't see a dramatic crash," Johnson said, adding that he expects a scenario in the coming months in which home prices plateau or dip slightly as they test the limits of consumers' budgets. "On a scale of one to ten, with the last bubble being a nine, this is a two or three."

Still, Johnson said, potential interest rate cuts could heat up the housing market even further, sending prices skyward and further threatening the stability of the sector.

On the other hand, Yun raised the possibility of a recession that forces layoffs and compromises the capacity for homeowners to afford their mortgages, potentially flooding the market with homes. Even in such circumstances, he said, "home price decline would be fairly modest."

Even in the absence of a full-on bubble, the market could use some deflation, Norman said.

"The bigger problem to me than a bubble is just the lack of affordability," he added. "Maybe the bubble doesn't burst but some air gets let out of the balloon."

[saturno]

Hora de morir.]

The liberal international order is slowly coming apart
Its collapse could be sudden and irreversible
 May 9th 2024
[1] https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/05/09/the-liberal-international-order-is-slowly-coming-apart
[2] https://archive.ph/hpJU3

Listen to this story. Enjoy more audio and podcasts on iOS or Android.
At first glance, the world economy looks reassuringly resilient. America has boomed even as its trade war with China has escalated. Germany has withstood the loss of Russian gas supplies without suffering an economic disaster. War in the Middle East has brought no oil shock. Missile-firing Houthi rebels have barely touched the global flow of goods. As a share of global GDP, trade has bounced back from the pandemic and is forecast to grow healthily this year.
Look deeper, though, and you see fragility. For years the order that has governed the global economy since the second world war has been eroded. Today it is close to collapse. A worrying number of triggers could set off a descent into anarchy, where might is right and war is once again the resort of great powers. Even if it never comes to conflict, the effect on the economy of a breakdown in norms could be fast and brutal.

As we report[1], the disintegration of the old order is visible everywhere. Sanctions are used four times as much as they were during the 1990s; America has recently imposed “secondary” penalties on entities that support Russia’s armies. A subsidy war is under way, as countries seek to copy China’s and America’s vast state backing for green manufacturing. Although the dollar remains dominant and emerging economies are more resilient, global capital flows are starting to fragment, as our special report[2] explains.

The institutions that safeguarded the old system are either already defunct or fast losing credibility. The World Trade Organisation turns 30 next year, but will have spent more than five years in stasis, owing to American neglect. The IMF is gripped by an identity crisis, caught between a green agenda and ensuring financial stability. The un security council is paralysed. And, as we report, supranational courts like the International Court of Justice are increasingly weaponised[3] by warring parties. Last month American politicians including Mitch McConnell, the leader of Republicans in the Senate, threatened the International Criminal Court with sanctions if it issues arrest warrants for the leaders of Israel, which also stands accused of genocide by South Africa at the International Court of Justice.

So far fragmentation and decay have imposed a stealth tax on the global economy: perceptible, but only if you know where to look. Unfortunately, history shows that deeper, more chaotic collapses are possible—and can strike suddenly once the decline sets in. The first world war killed off a golden age of globalisation that many at the time assumed would last for ever. In the early 1930s, following the onset of the Depression and the Smoot-Hawley tariffs, America’s imports collapsed by 40% in just two years. In August 1971 Richard Nixon unexpectedly suspended the convertibility of dollars into gold; only 19 months later, the Bretton Woods system of fixed-exchange rates[4] fell apart.

Today a similar rupture feels all too imaginable. The return of Donald Trump to the White House, with his zero-sum worldview, would continue the erosion of institutions and norms. The fear of a second wave of cheap Chinese imports[5] could accelerate it. Outright war between America and China over Taiwan, or between the West and Russia, could cause an almighty collapse.

In many of these scenarios, the loss will be more profound than many people think. It is fashionable to criticise untrammelled globalisation as the cause of inequality, the global financial crisis and neglect of the climate. But the achievements of the 1990s and 2000s—the high point of liberal capitalism—are unmatched in history. Hundreds of millions escaped poverty in China as it integrated into the global economy. The infant-mortality rate worldwide is less than half what it was in 1990. The percentage of the global population killed by state-based conflicts hit a post-war low of 0.0002% in 2005; in 1972 it was nearly 40 times as high. The latest research shows that the era of the “Washington consensus”, which today’s leaders hope to replace, was one in which poor countries began to enjoy catch-up growth, closing the gap with the rich world.

The decline of the system threatens to slow that progress, or even throw it into reverse. Once broken, it is unlikely to be replaced by new rules. Instead, world affairs will descend into their natural state of anarchy that favours banditry and violence. Without trust and an institutional framework for co-operation, it will become harder for countries to deal with the 21st century’s challenges, from containing an arms race in artificial intelligence to collaborating in space. Problems will be tackled by clubs of like-minded countries. That can work, but will more often involve coercion and resentment, as with Europe’s carbon border-tariffs or China’s feud with the IMF. When co-operation gives way to strong-arming, countries have less reason to keep the peace.

In the eyes of the Chinese Communist Party, Vladimir Putin or other cynics, a system in which might is right would be nothing new. They see the liberal order not as an enactment of lofty ideals but an exercise of raw American power—power that is now in relative decline.

Gradually, then suddenly

It is true that the system established after the second world war achieved a marriage between America’s internationalist principles and its strategic interests. Yet the liberal order also brought vast benefits to the rest of the world. Many of the world’s poor are already suffering from the inability of the IMF to resolve the sovereign-debt crisis that followed the covid-19 pandemic. Middle-income countries such as India and Indonesia hoping to trade their way to riches are exploiting opportunities created by the old order’s fragmentation, but will ultimately rely on the global economy staying integrated and predictable. And the prosperity of much of the developed world, especially small, open economies such as Britain and South Korea, depends utterly on trade. Buttressed by strong growth in America, it may seem as if the world economy can survive everything that is thrown at it. It can’t. ■

This article appeared in the Leaders section of the print edition under the headline "The new economic order"

[1] https://archive.ph/o/hpJU3/https://www.economist.com/briefing/2024/05/09/the-worlds-economic-order-is-breaking-down
[2] https://archive.ph/o/hpJU3/https://www.economist.com/special-report/2024-05-11
[3] https://archive.ph/o/hpJU3/https://www.economist.com/international/2024/05/09/the-worlds-rules-based-order-is-cracking
[4] https://archive.ph/o/hpJU3/https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/05/09/could-america-and-its-allies-club-together-to-weaken-the-dollar
[5] https://archive.ph/o/hpJU3/https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/05/09/what-xi-jinping-gets-wrong-about-chinas-economy

A Pessimistic Economist Laments The End Of Order
Moon of Alabama May 10, 2024
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/05/a-pessimistic-economist-laments-the-end-of-order.html#more

The magazine for and by multi-millionaires and billionaires, The Economist, warns that the end is imminent:

The liberal international order is slowly coming apart[1] - (archived[2])
Its collapse could be sudden and irreversible

    For years the order that has governed the global economy since the second world war has been eroded. Today it is close to collapse. A worrying number of triggers could set off a descent into anarchy, where might is right and war is once again the resort of great powers. Even if it never comes to conflict, the effect on the economy of a breakdown in norms could be fast and brutal.

It is, in my view, true that the 'liberal international order', which after World War II largely regulated world trade and politics is in demise.

But who's fault is that?

The examples The Economist gives to support its central claim point to one culpable nation:

    As we report, the disintegration of the old order is visible everywhere. Sanctions are used four times as much as they were during the 1990s; America has recently imposed “secondary” penalties on entities that support Russia’s armies. A subsidy war is under way, as countries seek to copy China’s and America’s vast state backing for green manufacturing. Although the dollar remains dominant and emerging economies are more resilient, global capital flows are starting to fragment, as our special report explains.

    The institutions that safeguarded the old system are either already defunct or fast losing credibility. The World Trade Organisation turns 30 next year, but will have spent more than five years in stasis, owing to American neglect. The IMF is gripped by an identity crisis, caught between a green agenda and ensuring financial stability. The un security council is paralysed. And, as we report, supranational courts like the International Court of Justice are increasingly weaponised by warring parties. Last month American politicians including Mitch McConnell, the leader of Republicans in the Senate, threatened the International Criminal Court with sanctions if it issues arrest warrants for the leaders of Israel, which also stands accused of genocide by South Africa at the International Court of Justice.

It is the U.S., the country which arguably benefited the most from the liberal international order, which is actively destroying it.

Others, if they did not attract random U.S. rage and war against them, also saw some benefits from it. Those small to medium countries will most likely lose out should the current regime collapse.

That would not be unprecedented:

    Unfortunately, history shows that deeper, more chaotic collapses are possible—and can strike suddenly once the decline sets in. The first world war killed off a golden age of globalisation that many at the time assumed would last for ever. In the early 1930s, following the onset of the Depression and the Smoot-Hawley tariffs, America’s imports collapsed by 40% in just two years. In August 1971 Richard Nixon unexpectedly suspended the convertibility of dollars into gold; only 19 months later, the Bretton Woods system of fixed-exchange rates fell apart.

Similar ruptures, like the examples above again caused by the U.S., may happen soon.

Interestingly the Economist does not name a solution or way to avoid it. It sees a collapse coming, blames -more or less- the U.S. for causing it, but does not point to way out of it.

That is an uncharacteristically pessimistic view for writers who otherwise like to paint a positive picture for those with big money.

[1] https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/05/09/the-liberal-international-order-is-slowly-coming-apart
[2] https://archive.ph/hpJU3

[asustadísimos]

[Los jugadores popularcapitalistas se ponen estupendos con el supuesto nuevo orden mundial. Y hablan de hacer la guerra. Pero estamos viendo que la OTAN (1.000 millones de personas) no puede contra un país helado de 150 millones de habitantes.

Además, ni guerra ni gaitas, atendiendo al poder de verdad en toda su complejidad de capas y ramas. Solo se trata de pastorear a mayorías naturales electorales en el trance final de la sustitución del modelo, estructura o patrón de Producción-Renta-Gasto. Sí, estamos en una guerra mundial, pero es civil, no entre naciones jurídico-políticas. Incluso hay cierta entente entre determinados Estados 'otanistas' y los de los BRICS+ contra el desorden en las provincias del imperio anglo en las que los anarcoparásitos ganan elecciones.

Se han reído todo lo que han querido de nosotros cuando decíamos que ni había 'plateau' ni era dorada alguna y hablábamos de 2025 como fecha final de la pesadilla.

Ya en los últimos años 1980 un servidor fue bien instruido en algo muy concreto: el 'todos capitalistitas' no es financiable. En los 1990, conforme avanzaba la unificación monetaria europea, se vio que esta daría lugar a una orgía 'de activos' que culminaría a mediados de los 2000 con el pinchazo de la burbuja popularcapitalista ochentera. Después, habría de consumirse una generación en la correspondiente reordenación financiera.

Pues bien, hemos llegado al final. Quedan, a lo sumo, poco más de seis trimestres. Van a ser los 540 días más largos de mi vida. Pero estoy tranquilo y feliz. He cumplido con mi deber.

Ahora, me buscan para restaurar la relación conmigo, incluso nombrarme consejero de sociedades superendeudadas y rebosantes de activos basura. ¡Que se las metan por donde les quepan!]

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1789338699144290472

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Saludos.