PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Primavera 2024

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12742394/03/24/la-capacidad-de-financiacion-de-la-economia-espanola-se-duplica-en-enero-de-2024.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12742830/03/24/el-gasto-en-educacion-aumenta-un-6-en-2022-con-un-record-de-63000-millones-de-euros.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12742729/03/24/los-economistas-revisan-a-la-baja-el-crecimiento-germano-la-economia-de-alemania-esta-enferma.html

Saludos.

[sudden and sharp]

 

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/e19c64fe-6661-4f10-bde6-6cb4a5e97667#post-d62812bd-d9fb-407e-a558-f1ffc58ce038

US fourth-quarter GDP growth revised up to 3.4%

The US economy grew 3.4 per cent in the fourth quarter, an upgrade from previous estimates, as consumer spending and nonresidential fixed investment were revised higher.

The final reading was above the second estimate of 3.2 per cent and the initial estimate of 3.3 per cent, in a sign that the US economy has remained resilient in the face of high interest rates.

Consumer spending growth ticked up to 3.3 per cent from 2.8 per cent in the advance estimate and 3 per cent in the second estimate.

Price pressures moderated more than previously reported. The “core” price consumption expenditures figure rose 2 per cent during the fourth quarter, matching the advance estimate but 0.1 percentage point below the second estimate.

[Derby]

https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-expects-save-1-3-billion-slashing-office-vacancies-2024-3

Leaked document: Amazon expects to save $1.3 billion by slashing office vacancies, terminating leases early, and other moves

*Amazon aims to save $1.3 billion by reducing office vacancies over the next three to five years.
*Natural lease expirations and early lease terminations are part of the plan.
*This is part of a larger cost-cutting strategy that includes shuttered projects and layoffs.

Amazon expects to save roughly $1.3 billion in coming years by radically reducing office vacancies, according to a person familiar with the matter and an internal document obtained by Business Insider.

To get there, Amazon is letting certain leases naturally expire, stopping the use of some office floors, and negotiating early lease terminations for some buildings, the person said. They asked not to be identified, citing private matters.

Amazon has an office-vacancy rate of 33.8%, this person said. That number is expected to drop to 25% in 2024 and decrease to 10% over the next three to five years. The change will result in about $1.3 billion in annual operating-expense savings, according to the internal document.

The company's office-vacancy rate of almost 34% results from slower growth and layoffs, the person familiar told BI.

Getting this down to about 10% in the coming years will be another blow to the commercial real-estate market, which is already reeling from the remote-work boom, overbuilding, and retrenchment by big companies such as Google and Meta.

The rating agency Fitch recently warned that the plunge in US office values could match or exceed 2008's real-estate collapse, as prices have yet to bottom out.

Amazon's office retrenchment is part of a broader, ongoing cost-cutting strategy, which includes shuttered projects, scaled-back expansion plans, and the largest layoffs in company history.

In an email to BI, Brad Glasser, a spokesperson for Amazon, said it's normal business practice to review the company's real-estate portfolio.

"We're constantly evaluating our real-estate portfolio based on the dynamic and diverse needs of Amazon's businesses by looking at trends in how employees are using our offices," Glasser said in a statement. "In some cases, employees may move buildings to increase collaboration and drive better utilization of our workspaces. In other cases, we may take on additional space where we're currently limited or make adjustments where we have excess capacity. The changes we've already made are improving vacancy rates, and we expect to see further progress as we continue to learn and iterate on our portfolio."

Hubs and hibernations

Amazon is also trying to increase office density by mandating that employees relocate to central "hubs," as BI previously reported. Amazon has a number of different hubs and the hub locations can vary depending on the team. But moving more employees to the same locations theoretically means the company can use less office space in non-"hub" locations.

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/e19c64fe-6661-4f10-bde6-6cb4a5e97667#post-d62812bd-d9fb-407e-a558-f1ffc58ce038

FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years in prison for fraud

Sam Bankman-Fried has been sentenced to 25 years in prison over his role in the collapse of his FTX cryptocurrency exchange, after being convicted of stealing billions of dollars in customer funds to make risky bets.

The sentence handed down on Thursday by Judge Lewis Kaplan in Manhattan federal court caps the swift and dramatic downfall of a figure who was once one of the most prominent faces in the crypto industry.

Bankman-Fried — dressed in a tan prison uniform, looking downcast and clasping his hands together — expressed remorse in a speech to the court before the sentence was read out. “I made a series of bad decisions,” he said.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-28/country-garden-delays-annual-results-expects-trading-suspension

Country Garden Delays Results, Expects Trading Suspension

Developer says it needs more information to complete results
Missed deadline means firm faces HK trading suspension

Country Garden Holdings Co., one of China’s biggest property developers, warned it will miss a deadline for reporting annual results, further complicating plans to restructure its debt following a default last year.

In a surprise announcement late Thursday, the Foshan-based developer said it expects to delay publishing its 2023 results beyond a March 31 deadline imposed by regulators. The delay will likely result in a suspension of trading on April 2 when the Hong Kong market reopens after Easter, the firm said in a filing.(...)

[saturno]

[https://www.transicionestructural.net/index.php?topic=2604.msg226845#msg226845
BORRELL HA ABOGADO POR MÁS RESPONSABILIDAD DE LA U. E. EN SU PROPIA DEFENSA Y LA HA DESENFILADO DE LA «LUCRANIA» PERDEDORA.
En su representación mental del futuro de la UE hay, pues:
1.º Cierta independencia de la UE respecto a EEUU.
2.º Cierta convergencia de los intereses de la UE y Rusia.
Visionado obligatorio, al menos, del min. 03:56:
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/tv/2024/03/25/amanpour-josep-borrell.cnn
En nuestra modesta opinión, estamos ante un evento estructuraltransicionista de primera magnitud que no debiera pasar inadvertido.
Todo encaja. ¡Qué poquito queda!]

Buena opinión (pero divergente, y muy).
v/EN
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/03/collapse-on-the-eu-home-front.html
v/FR
https://lesakerfrancophone.fr/effondrement-sur-le-front-interieur-de-lue

Collapse on the EU Home Front
Posted on March 17, 2024 by Conor Gallagher

The German military’s recklessness has been getting a lot of attention recently due to the leaked audio of German military officers casually discussing attacks on Russia.

You can draw a direct line from the foolishness of attacking Russia with a total of 100 Taurus missiles to the ongoing rapid economic decline at home. The incompetence evident in both continues to be on display as decisions in Berlin only make matters worse, and Germany’s insistence on austerity for the rest of Europe are helping to ensure the rest of the EU will be dragged further down as well.

The ramifications of such policies are likely to be substantial as Europe’s working class is increasingly opposed to the conflict with Russia and are becoming increasingly hostile to the EU, and in response elites are cracking down on democratic rights, threatening to ban parties and limiting speech.

The ineptitude – from Berlin to Brussels and across most European capitals – is so pervasive it’s enough to leave one wondering whether it’s intentional as part of some sort of targeted demolition with an ulterior motivel.

“Dramatically Bad”

....

Germany’s economic slump is now widely seen as structural rather than temporary, as the country is struggling with higher energy prices following the loss of cheap and reliable Russian energy. Habeck and the Greens were some of the staunchest supporters of the conflict with Russia and getting rid of Russian fossil fuels, as well as Germany’s nuclear power, so they must be ramping up clean energy, right?

Not exactly. According to a report released March 7 by the German Federal Court of Auditors. It found that the expansion of renewable energies and the electricity grid is way behind schedule, and that there isn’t enough generation capacity to meet demand.

Habeck, who is also the federal minister of climate action, dismissed the report, saying it “does not reflect reality.”

The reality is inflation continues to be problematic, the economy is contracting as industry shrinks, exports to China are declining and there is constant pressure from Atlanticists to self-impose a further reduction, living standards are declining, social spending is being scaled back in favor of more military spending, wealth inequality grows, and industry continues to leave the country.

....

Making a Bad Situation Worse

Germany also continues to insist on stricter fiscal rules for Europe, which will likely only worsen the economic pain already being felt by millions across the bloc largely due to the economic war against Russia.

In February, a last-minute agreement between the European Commission and Parliament will force EU member states to slash debt ratios and deficits while maintaining investment in “strategic areas such as digital, green, social or defense.”

After years of using the escape clause in order to deal with the economic fallout of the pandemic, the return of fiscal rules in the form of the new “economic governance” framework might help the EU get its coveted war bonds, it will also mean more austerity. – especially for those nations with high public debt ratios, such as Italy, Spain and France.

....

How does all the economic carnage translate at the political level? At the end of 2022, voters already went with the candidate (Meloni) who fashioned herself as an EU- and NATO-skeptic. She turned out to be neither.

Where do voters turn to now? As of now, one third of Italian voters rate the economy as their top concern, and most have nowhere to go:

...

Working class Europeans are increasingly waking up to the fact that the EU is a project of class warfare on labor. Trust in EU institutions continues to decline while 66 percent of the EU working class feel their quality of life is getting worse.  In short, Brussels’ policies are creating a groundswell of opposition to the EU.

As is the case across much of Europe, support for the EU in Italy is already largely divided along class lines:

...

While there is ongoing escalation against Russia and China abroad, so too we’re seeing escalation at home. While the likes of von der Leyen lecture countries on the dangers of electing anyone they consider a threat to what they call the “liberal consensus,” they increasingly use warnings of “tools,” threats to ban parties, crackdowns on speech to arrive at that consensus.

There is more pushback – whether farmers’ protests, political parties calling for new direction, or simply individuals or groups airing unwanted viewpoints. As of now, they are smeared as far right or as personifications of Russian propaganda, but at what point does the number of those being smeared reach critical mass?

Or to put it another way: As capital continues to gobble up the European welfare states and living standards decline, citizens are asked to sacrifice even more for the wealthy’s economic wars, which they are told are fights over democratic values. Meanwhile, those values are increasingly trampled at home in order to silence opposition to said economic wars. That does not seem like a sustainable model.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-03-28/currency-markets-a-decline-in-the-euro-to-parity-with-the-dollar-beckons

Euro Decline to Parity With the Dollar Beckons

Interest-rate differentials and growth outlooks favor the greenback over the common currency.

Despite the euro zone having lower official interest rates and a notably softer economy than the US, the euro has held up remarkably well against the dollar. The foreign exchange market’s most popular currency pair trades not just in line its $1.085 average of the past year but within reach of the $1.11 five-year mean. The common currency, however, can’t defy gravity forever — so a return toward parity with the greenback looks more likely than not over the course of this year.



At about 6.6%, the exchange rate’s volatility is the lowest it’s been since November 2021, having fallen from nearly 11% a year ago and illustrating how becalmed the market has become. This peaceful state may prove transient; given that rate-cutting cycles and recessions tend to hit the weaker side hardest, the euro looks increasingly vulnerable.



The two main drivers of currency values are relative central bank interest rates and respective growth outlooks. Both are fading faster in Europe than stateside. It's not just about absolute measures, but how those respective differences contract or widen that typically influence the foreign exchange market. On both measures, the US position looks superior, with the dollar also underpinned by its status as the world’s reserve currency.

One other salient factor is investor positioning. Bank of New York Mellon Corp.’s proprietary iFlow system tracks its global custody client holdings which, worth $46 trillion, are the world's biggest. On balance, clients remain overweight in euros. Geoffrey Yu, the bank’s senior strategist expects euro-dollar parity to return, not just due to fundamental economic and monetary reasons but because investors are shifting rapidly from being extremely long of euros.



An exodus out of the common currency amid the energy-price shock following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine saw it fall below parity with the dollar for most of the final months of 2022. Asset owners had shifted steadily back into euros over the last 18 months but their enthusiasm is waning. Yu reckons holding euros has been used by investors as a counterbalance against too much exposure to better-performing US markets. But risk-on assets such as US tech stocks are increasingly seen as one-way surefire bets, while for risk-off safety a 5.4% yield on US Treasury bills is hard to beat. Being overweight euros may no longer be the optimal choice.

The relative economic outlooks for the two largest global trading blocs are markedly different, not just over the recent past but also with regard to future expectations. It’s somewhat puzzling how strong the euro has been, but it’s partly explained by the 2.5% increase in its trade-weighted value in the past year, aided by the relative currency weakness of some its big export markets like China and Russia.



Inflation has been in steady decline globally. Both US and euro-zone consumer price measures peaked at just over 9% in mid- to late-2022, with February seeing euro-zone inflation dropping to 2.6%, lower than the 3.1% figure for the US. But on the growth outlook, there’s no competition. Deutsche Bank AG's monthly client survey has shown a steady shifting away from concern last year about an impending US recession to a large majority now expecting either a soft landing with growth remaining positive — or no landing at all. Fourth-quarter US gross domestic product rose at an annualized 3.2% pace; the euro zone economy stagnated.

Moreover, the euro-zone’s future remains bleak. Most worrying is that the bloc’s biggest economy, Germany, is struggling with a collapse in exports and an end to its cheap Russian energy. It’s likely fallen back into recession at the start of this year from which it doesn't look like suddenly bouncing out of. The rest of the bloc is either in or close to a recession, with a lackluster scenario for the next few years at least; economist are forecasting growth of just 0.5% this year, compared with 2.2% for the US.

On interest rates, the European Central Bank is making loud noises about cutting its deposit rate in June. President Christine Lagarde has valiantly tried to restrain expectations for what will come afterward, but the market isn’t really in listening mode — once the first reduction is in, a cascade of cuts is typically anticipated. The Federal Reserve is still making warm sounds about looser monetary policy this year but it truly is data dependent. The US economy is still sufficiently vigorous to keep inflation concerns alive. Both central banks may well cut rates in June; but while the futures market puts the odds of a Fed move at 63%, the ECB's likelihood is at 84%.

A weaker common currency appears to be the course of least resistance for the foreign exchange market. The ECB governing council may well be content to watch it gently weaken, as it would boost its export-led economy. It’ll want to avoid any sudden lurches lower — but benign neglect toward the euro may form part of the central bank’s strategy in the coming months.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-28/dubai-s-glitz-dims-for-russians-on-costs-us-sanction-pressures

Dubai Is Losing Its Allure for Wealthy Russians

Many Russian arrivals are considering moving elsewhere
UAE banks said to strengthen efforts to meet US requirements

Two years ago, Dubai became a hot favorite with Russians looking to park money or build new lives after President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. That allure is now dimming as the cost of living in the glitzy emirate surges and its banks get stricter in enforcing US sanctions.

Russian money flows into the United Arab Emirates — which Dubai is part of - are showing signs of slowing, according to bankers, executives and investment professionals. None of them predict a widespread exodus of cash already in the UAE, yet executives say it seems to have absorbed most of the benefits of Russian money and is unlikely to see more large inflows.

Some Russian arrivals are considering moving to new jurisdictions or even returning home as an expat rush into Dubai drives up rents and daily expenses. Unlike the US and the EU, the Gulf country doesn’t have sanctions on Russia. Still, Russian entities setting up bank accounts are now more likely to face scrutiny from local banks as the UAE comes under increased US pressure to tackle potential sanctions evasion, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified in discussing information that is private.

Investment based immigration firm Henley & Partners is seeing fewer Russians establishing in the UAE, “so the trendline is going down,” said Philippe Amarante, its head of the Middle East. “In fact, some of my Russian clients have either downsized their Dubai real estate assets they bought two years ago, maintain still a small base here, but moved back to Moscow or to other available and very attractive jurisdictions like Mauritius.”(...)

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-28/china-vanke-profit-tumbles-46-vows-to-cut-debt-by-14-billion

China Vanke Profit Tumbles 46%, Vows to Cut Debt By $14 Billion

China Vanke Co.’s profit tumbled more than analysts expected last year and it vowed to slash debt by almost $14 billion, as the embattled developer tries to stave off default amid a protracted housing crisis.

Net income attributable to shareholders shrank 46% to 12.2 billion yuan ($1.69 billion) for 2023, the Shenzhen-based company said in an exchange filing late Thursday. The drop dwarfs a 14% slide expected by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.(...)

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-28/bank-of-korea-warns-of-economic-hit-if-property-slump-lasts

Bank of Korea Warns of Economic Hit if Property Slump Lasts

Risks with loans to developers keep rising, central bank says
Bloomberg Economics model depicts home price drop hitting GDP

The Bank of Korea warned Thursday that a further slump in the real estate sector would undermine broader economic activity, as it pointed to worsening delinquencies among developers in the latest signal of continuing woes in the credit market.

The rising delinquency rate underscores more risks associated with project-finance projects, keeping alive concerns that they may spread to other developers, the South Korean central bank said in a regular report on the financial sector. The overall financial system appears stable in general, the BOK said.(...)

[saturno]

© Ipsos | What Worries the World March-2024
En PDF
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2024-03/Global-Report-What-Worries-the-World-March-2024.pdf

WHAT WORRIES THE WORLD?
Ipsos’ What Worries the World survey tracks public opinion on the most important social and political issues across 29 countries today, drawing on over ten years of data to place the latest scores in context.

This global summary report presents the top concerns around the world, alongside whether people think things in their country are heading in the right or wrong direction.

[sudden and sharp]

Hay que prepararse para lo peor: los expertos afirman que la población mundial se reduce
https://okdiario.com/ciencia/hay-que-prepararse-lo-peor-expertos-afirman-que-poblacion-mundial-reduce-12599827

Los expertos afirman que la población mundial se reduce, algo que no necesariamente es malo, pero hay que prepararse para lo peor. Cada vez nacen menos niños, es una realidad que estamos viendo en nuestros vecindarios.

¿Qué será lo peor...? Vaya usted a saber. No lo busque en el artículo. (No lo dice.    )




-------------
[ Qué jartá a reir, desde luego. ]

[saturno]

Acabo de verlo, en el gráfico de IPSOS, falta Rusia--

Qué bueno ¡no? - Supongo que meter a Rusia les destrozaba el gráfico-

¡Diviértanse!