PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Primavera 2024

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12777576/04/24/china-crecera-por-debajo-del-5-al-menos-durante-este-ano-y-el-proximo.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12775388/04/24/el-paro-juvenil-esta-estancado-en-china-y-anuncia-un-empeoramiento-en-la-demanda-interna-.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/opinion/noticias/12774400/04/24/desdolarizara-brics-la-economia-mundial.html

Saludos.

[Lem]

Viento en popa para el HPI preferido entre los vendedores.

Righmove House Price Index

Stronger buyer demand and sales as market marches into Spring

[...]



[...]



[...]



[...]

Un par de comentarios de la Twittersphere:

@emmafildes

https://twitter.com/emmafildes/status/1782291610350268521

Sellers of larger homes who waited out 2023 price drops & pinned hopes on rates being trimmed in time for their 2024 gardens to bloom, are coming out with renewed confidence of securing a buyer this time round. Driving up, the overall avg growth in asking prices, AKA optimism, by 1.1% in April 2024 to £372,324.

The number of new sellers, at this higher level, inc’ing 18% compared with last year, & the number of sales being agreed up by 20%.

Despite the belief that the dry spell is over, pricing remains sensitive. The properties that will be picked from the market stall will be those that haven’t been over exposed, overpriced & remain affordable to those buyers they hope to attract

@HenryPryor

https://twitter.com/HenryPryor/status/1782301519674479000

Asking prices are a reflection of the optimism of the seller & the ‘enthusiasm’ of the agent to get the business. Average asking prices may tell us how sellers feel but little about whether buyers share their optimism.

Sellers raise house prices amid market rebound – but rally may be short-lived

Top of the range homes are driving a surge in asking prices

Property price tags are on their way to a “near-record” high as spring sales point to a rebounding market.

The average asking price of a property coming to the market for sale is now just £570 short of last year’s May record of £372,894, while annual price growth now sits at 1.7pc – its highest level for 12 months, according to property portal Rightmove.

Some of the housing market’s largest “top-of-the-ladder” homes have reportedly been driving the growth, with the sector boasting its strongest start to a year in over a decade.

However, gloomier expectations for when the Bank of England might finally reduce interest rates mean this boost might be short-lived.

The average asking price is now £372,324, an increase of £4,207 compared to the previous month. But sellers are still being told to “avoid being overambitious” with their prices.

Tim Bannister, a director at Rightmove, said: “Agents report that the market remains very price-sensitive, and despite the current optimism, these are not the conditions to support substantial price growth.

“Sellers who are keen to secure their sale will still need to price realistically for their local market and avoid being overambitious at the start of marketing to give themselves the best chance of finding a buyer.”

The number of new sellers coming to the market in April was up by 12pc compared with the same month last year. As a result, the number of sales agreed was also up by 13pc.

At the top end of the market, 18pc more sellers had listed their homes and 20pc more sales were recorded.

[...]

[pollo]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12776716/04/24/diaz-y-saiz-discuten-reducir-las-trabas-para-contratar-extranjeros-tras-el-fiasco-en-la-construccion.html

Saludos.

Claro, claro. Es por "la burocracia" y no porque nadie va a venir a palmar pasta por el privilegio de trabajar.

[el malo]

Viento en popa para el HPI preferido entre los vendedores.

Righmove House Price Index

Stronger buyer demand and sales as market marches into Spring

[...]



[...]



[...]



[...]

Un par de comentarios de la Twittersphere:

@emmafildes

https://twitter.com/emmafildes/status/1782291610350268521

Sellers of larger homes who waited out 2023 price drops & pinned hopes on rates being trimmed in time for their 2024 gardens to bloom, are coming out with renewed confidence of securing a buyer this time round. Driving up, the overall avg growth in asking prices, AKA optimism, by 1.1% in April 2024 to £372,324.

The number of new sellers, at this higher level, inc’ing 18% compared with last year, & the number of sales being agreed up by 20%.

Despite the belief that the dry spell is over, pricing remains sensitive. The properties that will be picked from the market stall will be those that haven’t been over exposed, overpriced & remain affordable to those buyers they hope to attract

@HenryPryor

https://twitter.com/HenryPryor/status/1782301519674479000

Asking prices are a reflection of the optimism of the seller & the ‘enthusiasm’ of the agent to get the business. Average asking prices may tell us how sellers feel but little about whether buyers share their optimism.

Sellers raise house prices amid market rebound – but rally may be short-lived

Top of the range homes are driving a surge in asking prices

Property price tags are on their way to a “near-record” high as spring sales point to a rebounding market.

The average asking price of a property coming to the market for sale is now just £570 short of last year’s May record of £372,894, while annual price growth now sits at 1.7pc – its highest level for 12 months, according to property portal Rightmove.

Some of the housing market’s largest “top-of-the-ladder” homes have reportedly been driving the growth, with the sector boasting its strongest start to a year in over a decade.

However, gloomier expectations for when the Bank of England might finally reduce interest rates mean this boost might be short-lived.

The average asking price is now £372,324, an increase of £4,207 compared to the previous month. But sellers are still being told to “avoid being overambitious” with their prices.

Tim Bannister, a director at Rightmove, said: “Agents report that the market remains very price-sensitive, and despite the current optimism, these are not the conditions to support substantial price growth.

“Sellers who are keen to secure their sale will still need to price realistically for their local market and avoid being overambitious at the start of marketing to give themselves the best chance of finding a buyer.”

The number of new sellers coming to the market in April was up by 12pc compared with the same month last year. As a result, the number of sales agreed was also up by 13pc.

At the top end of the market, 18pc more sellers had listed their homes and 20pc more sales were recorded.

[...]

Lo bonito de la burocracia británica es que hay que datos accesibles al público que se molesta en buscarlos.

Llevo mucho tiempo siguiendo unas propiedades en Zoopla por mi zona (zona 2) y veo que los "asking prices" disparatados se van reduciendo poco a poco. Cruzo datos con Land Registry (que tiene el dato real del valor de la última transacción) y con los asking prices de hoy, alguien que compró en 2015 ya ha palmado pasta (no recupera lo que pagó más los impuestos).

Los británicos también son buenísimos en marketing y en engaños, por eso publican el índice de Right Move y el de Zoopla (asking prices) y no el de Land Registry (precios reales de transacción, que tendría mucho más sentido).

O se han comprado auténticos chollos, o dudo que un particular haya hecho dinero en la "property ladder" en los últimos 8 años (excluyo herencias).

Edito: mención aparte a los anuncios que llevan más de un año en Zoopla sin moverse (algunos más de dos años). Eso es, símplemente, no querer vender.

[sudden and sharp]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12777712/04/24/francia-e-italia-se-preparan-para-incumplir-las-nuevas-reglas-fiscales-.html

Saludos.

Obsérvese la paradoja, al menos en la prensa patria, de como Francia e Italia se pasan por el forro las reglas... fiscales o lo que sea, pero a nosotros nos regañan y eso... 

[el malo]

https://theobjective.com/espana/politica/2024-04-22/gobierno-residencia-fiscal-hermano-sanchez/

A ver qué se opina en el foro de esto.. si es evasión de impuestos o no.

Entre esto y los últimos comentarios del Ministerio de Sanidad sobre las vacunas este gobierno está batiendo records de caradurismo. Hace falta una limpia importante. Nuestros políticos han perdido totalmente la vergüenza y el pueblo se lo consiente.

[Lem]

Lo bonito de la burocracia británica es que hay que datos accesibles al público que se molesta en buscarlos.

Llevo mucho tiempo siguiendo unas propiedades en Zoopla por mi zona (zona 2) y veo que los "asking prices" disparatados se van reduciendo poco a poco. Cruzo datos con Land Registry (que tiene el dato real del valor de la última transacción) y con los asking prices de hoy, alguien que compró en 2015 ya ha palmado pasta (no recupera lo que pagó más los impuestos).

Los británicos también son buenísimos en marketing y en engaños, por eso publican el índice de Right Move y el de Zoopla (asking prices) y no el de Land Registry (precios reales de transacción, que tendría mucho más sentido).

O se han comprado auténticos chollos, o dudo que un particular haya hecho dinero en la "property ladder" en los últimos 8 años (excluyo herencias).

Edito: mención aparte a los anuncios que llevan más de un año en Zoopla sin moverse (algunos más de dos años). Eso es, símplemente, no querer vender.

La verdad es que los servicios digitales del Reino Unido (bueno, Inglaterra que es con lo que trato) están a un nivel que considero excepcional. Sobre los datos, me contó un amigo que trabajó en GDS tres años, que tienen muchas iniciativas para abrir lo que se pueda, el mayor problema siendo que no deja de ser burocracia y gobierno.

Hace un tiempo di con esta web que hace una amalgama de datos, una parte siendo el registro del Land Registry https://www.bricksandlogic.co.uk. Registrándose da acceso a un mapa utilísimo. Rightmove también ofrece ahora "Property sale history", que permite ver los datos del LR, o más a lo bruto aquí (ej. de una zona en la que viví hace cuatro años) https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/arsenal-station.html?radius=0.25&page=1

El caso de Londres es un poco particular porque ha sido relativamente estable en precios pero es que lleva a £10k m2 casi esos ocho años, que viene a ser lo que llevo en RU, y ahora con los tipos muchísimo más altos no hay margen posible. Veremos que sucederá si el BoE le comienza a dar al gatillo. Últimamente tengo la moral baja.

Por otro lado, todo los que son home counties (e.g. Kent, y p.e. Beckenham que es donde estaba antes) sí que ha habido muchísimos particulares a los que sí les ha funcionado). No digamos zonas en la que los huídos de Londres tienen hasta mote "DFL" de "Down from London", como es donde estoy ahora. En los últimos tres años, un 20% de aumento fácil. Tampoco hay que olvidar que ahí estuvo el Stamp Duty Holiday, que causó el movimiento de mucho dinero sin dejar esa parte en caja.

Datos del registro, via Rightmove:

Beckenham https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/beckenham.html?country=england&searchLocation=Beckenham&year=7

Hastings https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/hastings.html?soldIn=7&page=1

Bristol https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/bristol.html?soldIn=7&page=1

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-22/german-office-values-to-drop-as-much-as-10-this-year-vdp-says

German Office Values to Drop as Much as 10% This Year, VDP Says

VDP expects price declines across all real estate classes
Office properties seen extending drop until the end of 2024

German banking association VDP forecasts more price drops across all real estate asset classes this year with offices hit especially hard by slower growth and sticky work-from-home trends.

Values for office buildings could fall between 5% and 10% in 2024, VDP, which represents German real estate lenders, said in a statement on Monday. Meanwhile, retail and residential prices are expected to fall as much as 7.5% and 5% this year, respectively.(...)

[Derby]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/black-swan-hedge-fund-says-150156339.html

Reuters
Black swan hedge fund says Fed rate cuts will signal market crash

NEW YORK (Reuters) - While U.S. financial markets debate the timing of interest rate cuts, one tail-risk hedge fund is warning that investors should make the most of recent economic optimism while it lasts, as a shift to lower rates will signal a dramatic market crash.

"This is a case of be careful what you wish for," said Mark Spitznagel, chief investment officer and founder of Universa, a $16 billion hedge fund specializing in risk mitigation against "black swan" events - unpredictable and high-impact drivers of market volatility.

Spitznagel's view is not widely held. The much-anticipated shift to a less restrictive monetary policy by the Federal Reserve has helped buoy stocks and bonds in recent months, although signs of stubborn inflation have eroded expectations for how deeply the central bank will be able to cut interest rates in 2024.

Spitznagel argues that such a shift would likely take place only when economic conditions deteriorate, creating a challenging environment for markets.

"People think it's a good thing the Federal Reserve is dovish, and they're going to cut interest rates ... but they're going to cut interest rates when it's clear the economy is turning into a recession, and they will be cutting interest rates in a panicked fashion when this market is crashing,” Spitznagel said in an interview with Reuters.

Funds such as Universa often use credit default swaps, stock options and other derivatives to profit from severe market dislocations. Generally they are cheap bets for a big, long-shot payoff that otherwise are a drag on the portfolio, much like monthly insurance policy payments.

Some of the funds, including Universa, were big winners during the extreme dislocations that rocked markets in the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.

These days, Spitznagel is skeptical of the idea that the U.S. economy has entered a so-called “no landing” scenario, where growth continues apace despite higher interest rates.
 
"It's not different this time," he said. Higher interest rates will eventually pop "the greatest credit bubble in human history," he said.

The Fed has raised interest rates by 525 basis points since early 2022 to head off a surge in inflation. Spitznagel believes, however, that excesses built up in the years of ultra-loose monetary policy that the U.S. saw since the 2008 global financial crisis have not yet been squeezed out of the economy.

"This economy is built on low interest rates," said Spitznagel. "There are lag effects when you reset interest rates like we had."

Investors should take advantage of the current "goldilocks" environment, he said, referring to market hopes that the Fed can bring down consumer prices without hurting the economy.

"I think that there's going to be a lot more positive euphoric sentiment before this thing is over," he said.

(Reporting by Davide Barbuscia and Carolina Mandl; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Hugh Lawson)

[sudden and sharp]

https://theobjective.com/espana/politica/2024-04-22/gobierno-residencia-fiscal-hermano-sanchez/

A ver qué se opina en el foro de esto.. si es evasión de impuestos o no.

l delegado del Gobierno en Extremadura, José Luis Quintana Álvarez, ha reconocido este lunes desde los micrófonos de la COPE la residencia fiscal del hermano de Pedro Sánchez en Portugal, añadiendo además que «sí es ético y es legal». Estas declaraciones han provocado la reacción del PP de esta comunidad, cuyo portavoz, José Ángel Sánchez Juliá, ha pedido al PSOE de Extremadura que, primero «desautorice el delegado de Gobierno» y, segundo, «repruebe la actitud tan poco ética de David Sánchez Pérez-Castejón».

Y del espacio Schengen... Legal parece. Ético sí por legal. Poco "estético"... tal vez. (Seguramente.)

Mientras no aparezcan manchas de Rorschach... 

Entre esto y los últimos comentarios del Ministerio de Sanidad sobre las vacunas este gobierno está batiendo records de caradurismo. Hace falta una limpia importante. Nuestros políticos han perdido totalmente la vergüenza y el pueblo se lo consiente.

El caradurismo se le supone a los gobiernos... pero de ahí a considerar obligatorio lo que era voluntario. (El "crimen" seria más bien el clima de miedo que crearon... ¿los medios?) Las vacunas eran experimentales a las claras, me temo.








Poco que rascar, creo.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-22/euro-zone-consumers-increasingly-struggle-to-pay-for-housing

Euro-Zone Consumers Increasingly Struggle to Pay for Housing

A rising number of euro-area consumers is struggling to pay for housing after years of above-target inflation and surging borrowing costs, according to European Central Bank research.

The share of lower-income households expecting to make late payments for utilities or rent rose to more than 20% in the first quarter from about 15% in 2023, ECB researchers Omiros Kouvavas and Desislava Rusinova said Monday in a bulletin article. For mortgage payments, it nearly doubled to 30%.



“Given the present and future effects of both increased interest rates and loss of purchasing power owing to inflation, the ability of households to meet their housing-related costs and mortgage payments is a source of concern,” the article said.

Interest-rate hikes to curb inflation have weighed particularly on the property market, where new investments have fallen. That’s increased pressure on the rentals, which were tight in many European cities even before the spike in inflation.

The ECB is likely to start lowering rates in June, with several Governing Council members and many politicians in the region concerned that tight monetary policy is holding back the 20-nation economy excessively.

[Centinela]

https://theobjective.com/espana/politica/2024-04-22/gobierno-residencia-fiscal-hermano-sanchez/

A ver qué se opina en el foro de esto.. si es evasión de impuestos o no.

Entre esto y los últimos comentarios del Ministerio de Sanidad sobre las vacunas este gobierno está batiendo records de caradurismo. Hace falta una limpia importante. Nuestros políticos han perdido totalmente la vergüenza y el pueblo se lo consiente.

A cualquier otra persona la AEAT le gira la cuota dejada de ingresar del IRPF de los años no prescritos. Más si se trata de un empleado público de una administración local cuyo vicepresidente manifiesta, así se indica en la noticia, que en la Diputación de Badajoz no se teletrabaja. Pero claro, el hermano del presidente del gobierno no es una persona cualquiera.

Supongo que tendrá un decreto del presidente de la Diputación o del diputado delegado autorizándole el teletrabajo. Bueno, aunque no lo tenga no creo que haya inspector de hacienda con los arrestos suficientes para abrirle una paralela al tal David Azagra.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://twitter.com/gmvidl/status/1782417515949314367

Saludos.

[Lem]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-22/euro-zone-consumers-increasingly-struggle-to-pay-for-housing

Euro-Zone Consumers Increasingly Struggle to Pay for Housing

Boletín completo https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/economic-bulletin/focus/2024/html/ecb.ebbox202403_03~5527657e02.en.html