PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Verano 2024

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/50f3a047-f607-467f-ad1a-117e8a310aed

Top-rated European commercial mortgage bonds set for first losses since credit crisis

Holders of senior notes backed by UK shopping centres, German housing units and French offices to be hit, say analysts

Investors in several European commercial mortgage bonds that were originally sold with top credit ratings look set to suffer losses, say analysts, the first time since the global financial crisis that the safest tier of this debt has been hit.

Among those set for losses are holders of the most senior bonds in a commercial mortgage-backed security that originally made a loan to Oaktree Capital Management to finance three UK shopping centres. The recently agreed sale of the underlying properties is expected to raise less than the value of the outstanding debt.

Meanwhile, rating agency Fitch has predicted that investors in the safest tranche of two more CMBS deals, including one set up to lend to Brookfield, are also facing losses.

“Certainly as an investor you wouldn’t expect to see losses at triple-A level, it’s not a good headline,” said Elena Rinaldi, a portfolio manager in the asset-backed securities team at TwentyFour Asset Management.

Rising borrowing costs over the past two years have triggered the worst downturn in commercial real estate since the 2008 global financial crisis, with the value of offices, retail and other assets falling by between a third and a fifth from their 2022 peak in Europe.

More conservative levels of borrowing today than in the run-up to 2008 have meant that signs of distress have been slower to emerge among property investors this time around. However, the latest predictions of losses show that the pain in the property markets is now hitting even the most protected tier of real estate-backed credit investments.

The loan was transferred to Mount Street — a “special servicer” that tries to maximise the recovery for investors — in 2020 after breaching covenants, and has been in default since then.

Elizabeth Finance 2018 DAC, the CMBS vehicle set up to issue the debt, announced last week that Mount Street had accepted a £35mn bid for the shopping centres in King’s Lynn, Dunfermline and Loughborough, known as the Maroon properties. The bid would deliver net proceeds of about £31.5mn to debt investors, it said.

Holders of the most senior bonds are owed £33.6mn, according to Bank of America, and therefore under this proposal are set to incur a 6.3 per cent loss.

“The biggest problem has been interest rates, quite simply,” said James Bannister, head of special servicing at Mount Street. “There’s no money left to do anything with the assets so we had to be honest with investors and say, ‘we can’t do any more, now is the time to move these assets on’.”

The most senior debt issued by Elizabeth Finance, which originally held two loans before one was repaid, was rated triple-A by S&P and Morningstar DBRS in 2018. Oaktree, one of the world’s biggest distressed debt investors, was the original borrower.

Last week DBRS lowered its credit rating on these senior notes to junk for the first time. On Wednesday, S&P did the same.

In 2018, Fitch voiced concerns that these notes did not warrant the triple-A ratings given to them by the other agencies because of the risk associated with the quality of the assets.

UK non-high street retail “is not a left-field credit risk. It’s been bubbling for a long time and the [coronavirus] pandemic was clearly an additional juggernaut that hit the sector and was fairly unkind to those kinds of assets,” said Euan Gatfield, head of Emea CMBS at Fitch.

Following Elizabeth Finance’s announcement last week, Fitch predicted it may be followed by losses for top-tier bondholders in two other European CMBS: Haus DAC and River Green Finance 2020 DAC.

Holders of the most senior debt of Haus CMBS, which is backed by 6,281 multifamily residential housing units across 92 sites in Germany, were also at risk because of falling property values as a result of high vacancy rates, it said.

Brookfield Property Group is the main borrower from the Haus CMBS. Brookfield declined to comment.

In March last year Moody’s downgraded all of the debt issued by Haus DAC, including more than €200mn of top-tier bonds, saying the properties had an average occupancy rate of about 58 per cent and were facing significant delays in planned refurbishments.

“Without a swift turnaround in operating performance, including a [capital expenditure] programme mired in delays and cost overruns, we believe all classes of notes will incur losses,” Fitch analysts wrote. Without top-up payments from Brookfield, the housing securing Haus “would be producing negative net operating income”, it added.

The other CMBS, River Green Finance 2020 DAC, was the first sustainability-focused CMBS in Europe and is secured by an office campus in outer Paris mostly leased to struggling tenant Atos.

Last year Moody’s downgraded all of River Green’s notes and increased the expected loss on the underlying loan after it was not repaid when due. It currently has €98mn in outstanding top-tier bonds.

[Derby]

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-06-18/sinaloa-cartel-chinese-money-laundering

Sinaloa drug cartel laundered millions through Chinese network in L.A., prosecutors say

With millions in cash piling up in the United States, the Sinaloa cartel needed to funnel proceeds from the sale of fentanyl, methamphetamine and cocaine back to Mexico.

Federal prosecutors say a ring of Chinese nationals in the San Gabriel Valley offered a solution: marrying the Sinaloans’ glut of bulk cash in Greater Los Angeles with a demand from wealthy residents of China to transfer their money to the United States.

U.S. Atty. E. Martin Estrada announced Tuesday that a grand jury has charged 24 defendants — drug traffickers, couriers, bagmen and brokers — with conspiring to distribute drugs, money laundering and operating an unlicensed money-transmitting business.

(...)Estrada said the ring laundered more than $50 million in drug money over several years. Anne Milgram, administrator of the DEA, said the Sinaloans embraced the San Gabriel Valley-based organization because it charged a commission of 0.5% to 2% of the laundered cash, compared with the 5% to 10% fee collected by traditional money laundering networks.

Milgram said the San Gabriel Valley ring also collected a commission from the wealthy Chinese nationals who purchased dollars from the Sinaloa cartel.

These Chinese nationals wanted to move their money into California to buy real estate, pay tuition and make investments in the U.S. financial system, Estrada said.

Prosecutors had “no direct evidence” the Chinese nationals knew they were buying the profits of fentanyl, methamphetamine and cocaine sales, Estrada said, but anyone who uses an underground banking system dealing in bulk cash “should be suspicious about where that money is coming from.”

https://www.ft.com/content/acaf6a57-4c3b-4f1c-89c4-c70d683a6619

The new money laundering network fuelling the fentanyl crisis

US officials say Chinese organised crime groups are laundering much of the cash accumulated by Mexican drugs cartels



(...)To clean the cash they have accumulated, the money laundering groups often sell the dollars to wealthy Chinese in the US. In return, these individuals authorise a bank transfer in China of the equivalent amount in renminbi to accounts controlled by the money laundering organisation.

“Every money laundering investigation that we have now involves a significant amount of Chinese money launderers inside,” says a senior DEA official.

The laundered money rapidly makes its way back into the legitimate economy. US authorities say that the cash is sometimes used to buy expensive cars and luxury property across the US, without any alarms being raised.

The FBI has warned that in some cases, Chinese students pay for tuition at US universities with cash that has been laundered. These transactions must be reported to the US Treasury if they involve sums over $10,000, but were not necessarily flagged as suspicious by the department, DEA officials said.

The US Treasury said it supported law enforcement agencies “with critical insights and protected access to the millions of reports filed by financial institutions pursuant to the Bank Secrecy Act”.

(...)While the huge profits being made from fentanyl have been widely publicised, the other side of the money laundering operation — the demand for dollars from Chinese individuals — is less well understood.

Capital flight from China is by no means a new phenomenon but in recent years the scale of these transfers has surged, according to both Chinese officials and analysts who track China’s international remittances.

“The levels of capital flight in the past three years have been quite alarming,” says one senior Chinese official, who declined to be identified and who says that a lot of billionaires and multimillionaires are trying to leave China and take their money with them.

“Some wealthy private entrepreneurs are losing confidence in China’s future. They feel unsafe so they are finding ways to get their money out.”

(...)

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/9b4c3cab-13b6-4195-a496-555c7a1db15b

Israel’s push to create a ‘dead zone’ in Lebanon

As Hizbollah and Israel trade cross-border fire, radar data and interviews show attacks have ravaged 5km-wide strip of land

Over nearly nine months of simmering conflict with the Hizbollah militant group, Israel’s military has laid waste to swaths of southern Lebanon.

Even as diplomats scramble to prevent a full-scale war that could inflame the region, Israeli attacks have destroyed or badly damaged buildings and infrastructure, farmland and forests, as well as striking Hizbollah military targets. In the scattered villages and towns that dot the frontier, some entire neighbourhoods have been levelled.

Most of the destruction has taken place within a 5km corridor just north of the Blue Line, the UN-drawn border between the two countries, according to analysis of satellite imagery, radar data and government statistics, along with interviews with local and state officials, researchers, civil defence workers and residents.

Data gathered by the Financial Times suggests that as diplomatic negotiations sputter, the Israeli military has used force to create a new reality on the ground. Near-daily aerial bombardment, artillery shelling and the incendiary chemical white phosphorus have made much of the 5km north of the Blue Line uninhabitable.

Structural damage, environmental degradation and economic harm have left a strip of land resembling the “buffer zone” that Israel wants to establish in Lebanon. Just handfuls of civilians remain. Most buildings are empty; many have been destroyed.

Attempts to negotiate a deal that would include Hizbollah pulling back from the border have not succeeded. But the area has become a de facto military zone, patrolled by Hizbollah fighters, Lebanese armed forces and UN peacekeepers.

The FT combined data from commercial satellites with research from the CUNY Graduate Center and Oregon State University. The researchers apply a technique using imagery from “synthetic aperture radar” satellites, which can detect changes to buildings, and is unaffected by cloud cover.

In Aita al Chaab, near the border, it shows clusters of destruction. The town centre has been hard hit since October 8, the day Hizbollah began firing into northern Israel in “solidarity” with Hamas and to draw Israeli military forces away from Gaza. That triggered continuing tit-for-tat hostilities.

In Lebanon, says Mohammad Srour, the mayor of Aita al-Chaab, “it’s systematic destruction”. “They are destroying the infrastructure, to make it impossible for you to return and live here,” he said. (...)

[Derby]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crged975jx7o

Mortgage costs to rise for 3 million, says Bank

About three million households are set to see their mortgage payments rise in the next two years, the Bank of England has said.

The Bank's latest Financial Stability Report also said about 400,000 mortgage holders are facing some “very large" payment increases.

Renters remain under pressure from the higher cost of living and higher interest rates, the report found.

However, the Bank said that overall risks to the UK financial system were broadly unchanged, and businesses and households have remained resilient to the impact of higher rates.

The Bank found that about one third of mortgage holders in the UK, more than three million, are still paying rates of less than 3%.

These will mostly be people who arranged mortgage deals before the Bank of England started to increase interest rates in late 2021.

These mortgages are now expiring, and the Bank said the majority of fixed rate deals will finish before end of 2026.

For the typical household, monthly mortgage repayments are forecast to increase by around £180, or around 28%.

However, for around 400,000 households, monthly payments could jump by 50% or more.

Despite this, the amount of people struggling to pay their mortgage is still expected to stay below levels seen after the 2008 global financial crisis.

"The overall share of households who are behind in paying their mortgages remains low by historical standards," the Bank says.

The report comes after three major lenders began reducing mortgage rates following hints of a summer interest rate cut by the Bank of England.

This week, HSBC, NatWest and Barclays have all cut the cost of fixed-rate home loans for new deals.

However, the Bank's report found that the proportion of people falling behind on rental payments has risen from 15.7% to 16.5%.

This is said to be the result of landlords passing on the cost of higher mortgage interest rates on to their tenants.

Higher rents have resulted in "savings buffers for renters and low-income households" being further eroded in the six months to the end of March this year.

It also said that research suggested that many renters and lower-income households "intend to run down their savings even further in the next year to deal with the increased cost of living, making these groups less financially resilient".

Overall, the Bank said that UK banks were still in a good position to assist businesses and households.

"The UK banking system has the capacity to support households and businesses, even if economic and financial conditions were to be substantially worse than expected," its report said.

The Bank highlighted some "global vulnerabilities", including political uncertainty in the UK and abroad, that could impact the sector.

It said upcoming elections worldwide could "lead to financial market volatility".

[Derby]

https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/la-falta-de-personal-cuesta-8000-millones-6085164/

La falta de personal cuesta 8.000 millones

En España faltan trabajadores y sólo en el primer trimestre de este año se han quedado sin cubrir 149.962 vacantes. Un problema aún relativamente pequeño pero que crece muy rápido: las ofertas de trabajo que no encuentran candidatos adecuados se mantienen por debajo del 1% del total, pero esta tasa ha crecido un 44% desde 2019. Y ya tiene importantes consecuencias económicas: sólo en 2023 supuso a la economía del país dejar de generar 8.150 millones de euros. Es una de las principales conclusiones de un estudio de la Fundación BBVA y el IVIE, donde se especifica que la cifra no contabiliza la producción perdida por falta de personal en los sectores primario, inmobiliario y energético. Las actividades con mayores problemas para encontrar personal son el sector público (36,6%), el comercio (10,9%) y las profesiones científicas y técnicas (8,1%).

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12883828/06/24/el-problema-de-las-vacantes-espana-tiene-148000-empleos-sin-cubrir-un-44-mas-desde-la-pandemia.html

[asustadísimos]

[Gracias por haber retirado el tag 'sanxe', que además de rebajar el nivel del blog, creaba la apariencia de que se trataba de un sitio de internet más del «Sánchez, Sáánchez, Sááánchez», cuando a nosotros no nos importa quién esté, sino que al que le toque estar, que moleste lo mínimo en la ejecución del ortograma capitalista —transición estructural del modelo popularcapitalista al de capitalismo planificado—; es decir, que no haga experimentos del tipo «esto lo arreglo yo con mis ideítas».]

[asustadísimos]

[La retórica de los ganchos del timo inmobiliario no va dirigida a captar clientes —mercadotecnia— sino a engañar primos —estafa—. Las soflamas en los medios de comunicación no son publirreportajes. Ni siquiera son charlatanería. Son peroratas inmorales. Su objetivo es falsear, fingir, aparentar, domar, marranear, defraudar, tangar.]

[asustadísimos]

[Según los sondeos, de estas elecciones en Francia va a salir un un gobierno francés anti-guerra de Ucrania que ahondará la desincronización UE-EEUU, ya en marcha.]


[Según los sondeos, de estas elecciones en Reino Unido va a salir un gobierno británico anti-guerra de Ucrania que ahondará la desincronización económica Europa-EEUU, ya en marcha.]

[puede ser]

Lo bueno de esta medida en Barcelona, probablemente lo mejor, es que saca el debate a primera plana, se va a hablar de ello durante mucho tiempo y sobre todo, que va a quitar muchas, pero muchas caretas y va a quitarle el disfraz de buena gente a mucho parásito que proyecta su propia condición sobre los jóvenes.

No llegué al final pero imagino que nadie postearía sobre el tema viviendas turísticas en Santiago. En resumen: en Santiago gobierna el BNG -por primera vez-; los seis ediles del PSOE prefieren votar en conciencia para limitar los pisos turísticos contradiciendo las órdenes de su partido y arriesgándose a ser expulsados.

La imagen que está dando el PSOE en Galicia es desoladora: tanto por este tema como por su abstención respecto a la construcción de una celulosa en el Río Umia (ría de Arousa, marisco, modo de vida de muchas familias de pocos recursos...)

https://www.lavozdegalicia.es/noticia/santiago/santiago/2024/06/24/ediles-psoe-santiago-pliegan-disciplina-direccion-local-respaldan-ordenanza-pisos-turisticos/00031719250104020374246.htm

Los ediles del PSOE de Santiago no se pliegan a la disciplina de la dirección local y respaldan la ordenanza de los pisos turísticos

El grupo municipal socialista de Santiago se ha saltado la disciplina de voto impuesta por la dirección local del partido en la votación esta tarde de la ordenanza municipal que desarrolla una de las directrices fijadas en la revisión del Plan Xeral de Ordenación Municipal (PXOM) promovida en el mandato anterior por el gobierno de Sánchez Bugallo (PSOE) para el control del uso turístico de viviendas, en concreto la posibilidad de destinar a dicho uso hasta un máximo de 60 días al año cualquier vivienda ajena al casco histórico que funciones como residencia habitual al menos 183 días. Esta ordenanza cierra la puerta a la regularización que pretendía el sector de viviendas de uso turístico (VUT) para aquellas registradas en la Xunta sin licencia municipal antes de la revisión de dicho planeamiento.

La decisión de los seis concejales del PSOE de votar a favor de la ordenanza impulsada por el gobierno bipartito (BNG-CA) ha abierto una crisis entre el grupo municipal y la agrupación socialista de consecuencias todavía impredecibles. Con ese apoyo, los concejales se desmarcan del criterio marcado la semana pasada por la dirección del partido, cuando impuso la abstención, que supondría que la propuesta del gobierno no llegase a prosperar. Consumada la votación de los ediles del PSOE a favor del texto, que Mercedes Rosón primero y Gonzalo Muíños después defendieron (en sendas intervenciones en las que se les llegó a quebrar la voz) invocando el principio de lealtad con la ciudad y en consecuencia con el marco regulatorio que impulsaron en el último mandato de Xosé Sánchez Bugallo, en la agrupación local socialista se limitaron a constatar que seguirán «o que está previsto no regulamento pola ruptura da disciplina de voto». El futuro de los seis concejales, en todo caso, todavía está en el aire, porque el asunto será abordado «con todos os órganos do partido e tamén con Ferraz, porque non é un tema menor».

Concejala de Santiago defendiendo la medida:
https://x.com/mrosonf/status/1805273458219102269

[puede ser]

https://www.farodevigo.es/galicia/2024/06/21/psoe-santiago-tumba-regulacion-pisos-turisticos-104114540.html

Y a pesar de todo, hemos llegado a un punto* en el que prohibir los pisos turísticos sería un tiro en el pie gravísimo para una país que vive -a corto plazo- de unos turistas que ya no caben en los hoteles. Va a hacer falta un plan mucho más complejo para reconducir la situación.

*Provincia de Pontevedra: 127.000 plazas en VUT, 58.000 en hoteles

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/6bb5a482-ec2c-427d-973e-2a8941af5513

EU to reimpose tariffs on Ukrainian eggs and sugar

Bloc to apply ‘emergency brake’ on imports from Kyiv signalling difficult membership talks ahead

[Raf909]

https://www.farodevigo.es/galicia/2024/06/21/psoe-santiago-tumba-regulacion-pisos-turisticos-104114540.html

Y a pesar de todo, hemos llegado a un punto* en el que prohibir los pisos turísticos sería un tiro en el pie gravísimo para una país que vive -a corto plazo- de unos turistas que ya no caben en los hoteles. Va a hacer falta un plan mucho más complejo para reconducir la situación.

*Provincia de Pontevedra: 127.000 plazas en VUT, 58.000 en hoteles

Con todos los respetos, pues que le den por el c**o a los turistas. Si no caben más, símplemente que no vengan, que no se promueva ese turismo,o que se suban precios en hoteles (ya de por si estratosféricos tras el covid).

Llamádme loco, pero quizá haya que impular otros sectores más productivos no basados en el rentismo. Si el precio que hay que pagar es que aumente un poco el paro durante un tiempo, me parece hasta razonable.

[sargento.algodon]

¿Nigel Farage va a ganar las elecciones en Reino Unido?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jun/24/nigel-farage-ukraine-party-leaders-reform

Yo creía que la victoria por una mayoría absoluta de las nunca vistas la iba a conseguir el Laborismo.

https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-labour-party-britain-general-election-war-in-ukraine-defense-national-security-keir-starmer/

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-69004980

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/15/lammy-and-healey-visit-ukraine-to-say-labour-would-keep-up-uks-backing

[Derby]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/house-prices-pandemic-era-boom-152219473.html

House Prices In Pandemic-Era Boom Towns Are Going Bust As Prices Fall

Several Southern cities that experienced rapid growth during the pandemic now face a cooling real estate market characterized by declining home prices and increased inventories surpassing pre-pandemic levels

According to June's Mortgage Monitor Report issued by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), 14% of major markets now have inventories at or above pre-pandemic levels, up from 10% just a month ago. Florida, Texas, and Colorado account for nearly all of the markets, with San Francisco being the lone exception outside these states.

(...)"Really the storyline of this spring has been elevated interest rates, less affordability, [and] less demand that is allowing inventory to grow across the country and you’re seeing that by and large nationwide," Andy Walden, Vice President of Enterprise Research Strategy at ICE, said in a video posted to LinkedIn last week.

Several factors are contributing to the recalibration. One is the surge in property insurance premiums, particularly in Florida and Texas, where severe weather events have driven average premiums well above the national average.

Additionally, homebuilders have ramped up development in the South. Florida and Texas saw the highest number of housing units approved for construction in April, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. Year to date, the two states have outpaced other regions in new housing permits.

"Roughly one in seven major markets across the country are now back to or above pre-pandemic levels, and the majority of those are in Texas, Florida or Colorado," Walden said. "Overall, we’re seeing 30% more for-sale inventory than we had at the same time last year, and we’re in the best inventory position that we’ve been in since the middle of 2020."

At the same time, the migration patterns that fueled the boom are shifting. While the South remains popular, moving data suggests that Texas and Florida aren't as popular as they once were, with Tennessee, the Carolinas, and Georgia now being preferred.

Austin, once a top destination during the pandemic, is now seeing many of its residents move. According to data issued by Pods, Austin will be the fifth-highest move-out city in 2024.

However, the central challenges persist with rising home prices and elevated mortgage rates. While mortgage rates are at highs last seen at the turn of the century, according to the April ICE Home Price Index, the average home has increased in value by 50% since the start of 2020, more growth than in any other decade since the 1980s.

[Derby]

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/27/economy/housing-market-prices-inflation/index.html

The housing market is ‘stuck’ until at least 2026, Bank of America warns


The mortgage rate of people who already own is historically low, and the rate for new buyers is elevated. Bank of America doesn’t think that gap will shrink much for years. David Paul Morris/Bloomberg/Getty Images

New York CNN — Help may not be on the way for first-time homebuyers frustrated by high mortgage rates and even higher home prices.

Economists at Bank of America warned this week that the US housing market is “stuck and we are not convinced it will become unstuck” until 2026 — or later.

The bank said home prices will stay high and go even higher. The housing shortage will persist. And mortgage rates may not fall much — even if the Federal Reserve finally delivers long-delayed interest rate cuts.

“This will take many years to work itself out. There isn’t a magic fix,” Michael Gapen, head of US economics at Bank of America, told CNN in a phone interview. “The message for first-time homebuyers is one of patience and frustration.”

Housing affordability is a major problem in America.

Home prices spiked during Covid-19 and then the Fed’s war on inflation sent mortgage rates surging.

The one-two punch has made it a historically unaffordable time to buy a home.

“It’s been a weird combination. Mortgage rates rose substantially but so did home prices. That typically doesn’t happen,” said Gapen.

The supply of homes simply cannot keep up with demand. Prices have had nowhere to go but up.

The median price of a previously owned US home climbed in May for the 11th month in a row to a record $419,300 — up 6% from a year earlier.

Bank of America expects home prices will climb by 4.5% this year and then by another 5% in 2025 before eventually dipping by 0.5% in 2026.

‘Lock-in effect’ could persist for eight years

One major problem hurting supply is the “lock-in effect.”

People who already own their home are effectively locked into their property after refinancing or getting a mortgage during the pandemic when ultra-low rates were available. Buying now at current rates would require them to pay hundreds of dollars more per month on interest alone. Plus, home prices have gone up.

For many, it just doesn’t make sense to move. And because those homeowners are not moving, the supply of existing homes on the market is limited.

“Why would I sell unless I have to?” said Gapen. “Prices have gone up and the mortgage rate is a lot higher. So, I’m content to stay where I am.”

Bank of America warns the lock-in effect could persist for another six to eight years, keeping a lid on supply during that time.

That’s because the mortgage rate of people who already own is historically low. And the rate for new buyers is elevated. Bank of America doesn’t think that gap will shrink much for years.

This problem helps explain why pending home sales fell in May to a record low, according to data released on Thursday. Pending sales, tracked by the National Association of Realtors since 2001, are a forward-looking gauge of home sales that measures contract signings.

‘They can’t take their mortgage rate with them’

Dave Liniger, who co-founded real estate giant RE/MAX with his wife in 1973, said the lock-in effect means people who want to size up to a bigger home can’t, and the next generation can’t even get their foot in the door for a starter property.

“The move-up market does not exist,” Liniger told CNN. “Starter homes have doubled in value and the owners would like to move up but the problem is they can’t take their mortgage rate with them.”

Liniger agrees that the housing market is stuck, for now at least.

“We have to muddle our way through this for a period of time,” he said.

But Liniger urged first-time homebuyers to remain patient. “Don’t give up the dream,” he said.

In theory, a flood of supply of new homes would help unstick the market.

However, Bank of America expects housing starts — which is a measure of newly constructed homes — to remain flat for the coming years. And housing starts have still not recovered from the bursting of the housing bubble in the mid-2000s.

Divide between haves and have-nots
The forecast for a “stuck” housing market cuts both ways.

The spike in home prices has padded the net worth of existing homeowners and given them additional financial flexibility.

But there are many Americans who are on the outside looking in. They’d like to buy but can’t afford to at these prices and these mortgage rates.

The longer they are prevented from buying, the more time they miss out on wealth creation.

In a recent Gallup poll, just 21% of Americans said it is a good time to buy a house, tied for the worst reading in Gallup history. An overwhelming majority — 76% — say it’s a bad time to buy.

Gapen, the Bank of America economist, said if the US economy achieves the soft landing that he expects, meaning that inflation cools without triggering a recession, there is a risk that home prices will rise even more than anticipated.

On the other hand, if the durability of the recovery has been overestimated and a recession is on the way, home prices could tumble and affordability would ease.

“But, obviously, you don’t want to go through a recession to have better housing affordability,” he said.