PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Verano 2024

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://elpais.com/economia/2024-06-28/los-salarios-subieron-un-55-en-el-primer-ano-de-crisis-inflacionista-liderados-por-un-avance-del-15-en-la-hosteleria.html

https://elpais.com/economia/2024-06-28/la-inflacion-baja-en-junio-dos-decimas-hasta-el-34-pese-al-encarecimiento-de-la-electricidad.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://elpais.com/economia/2024-06-28/el-tribunal-de-cuentas-urge-tomar-medidas-contra-el-deficit-de-89000-millones-de-la-seguridad-social.html

https://elpais.com/economia/2024-06-29/el-pago-de-la-hipoteca-supera-el-esfuerzo-maximo-recomendado-en-20-provincias.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://elpais.com/internacional/elecciones-usa/2024-06-29/el-fracaso-de-biden-en-el-debate-aviva-las-voces-democratas-que-reclaman-un-cambio-de-candidato.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/Cinco-Dias/20240629/page/40/textview

A China le conviene mantener abierta la ruta hacia Europa

https://cincodias.elpais.com/opinion/2024-06-29/gamestop-se-ha-convertido-en-un-mal-banco.html

Saludos.

[el malo]

Hago un paréntesis en las noticias de Cadavre (como siempre, excelente) para contarles un par de cosas:

La primera al respecto las elecciones en UK el 4 de julio y de las campañas electorales. Hay un número bastante alto de programas electorales que ponen como prioridad el cese de la invasión israelí en Gaza. Esto me choca porque UK ya tiene bastantes problemas internos como para hacer un asunto exterior una prioridad en la campaña electoral.

Imagino que el voto musulmán debe ser muy significativo y quieren llevárselo. Si esto es así, es otro problema en sí mismo (que cuestiones religiosas empiecen a definir las políticas de países occidentales, después de muchos años de luchar por la separación entre Estado y religión). Si a eso le añadimos que en UK la cabeza del Estado (el Rey), es también la cabeza de la "Church of England" (cristiana), pues nos queda un cocktail curioso.

La segunda es sobre la compra de Idealista por un pastizal. El único motivo por el que se justifica esa compra es porque saben que Idealista tiene peso en la definición de los índices de precios oficiales, si no de qué iban a pagar esa barbaridad. Si sólo estuviéramos hablando de una web, hubiera sido mucho más rentable comprar un portal de segunda categoría por un cuarto del precio, invertir 2 millones en mejorarlo y otros 500 millones en publicitarlo. Se habrían ahorrado 2 mil millones en el proceso. Pero eso no es lo que buscan.

Hablando de "Irrealista", les cuento otra anécdota.

Estoy en conversaciones para mandar a una persona de UK a Madrid a hacer un proyecto. Un perfil senior que se desplazaría con su familia un par de años. Tradicionalmente estos proyectos son una auténtica bicoca, te pagan pisazo, coche, colegio, seguro médico y un sobresueldo. Hoy esta persona se lo está pensando. ¿El motivo? El presupuesto que le dan para el alquiler son 1800 euros mensuales. Cuándo ha visto los precios en el centro de Madrid por un piso de 3 habitaciones con garaje y piscina ha dicho que no le compensa.

Ahora mismo vive en una casa bastate maja a las afueras de Londres con un jardín en el que se podría instalar una pista de tenis y tiene un contrato muy ventajoso que perdería si se traslada a España.

Como conozco Madrid muy bien le he dicho en qué zonas viviría yo y cuáles evitaría. Nada en esas zonas con esas características por menos de 2800 euros. Luego te vas a otros portales y ves cosas por 2500 (Idealista está infladísimo), pero igualmente muy por encima de lo que la empresa está dispuesta a pagar.

Enésimo caso de cómo la vivienda (tanto aquí como en Madrid) es un lastre para todos (empresas y trabajadores).

Si me van a decir que nadie necesita piscina para vivir, les diré que tienen razón, pero si vas a dejar todo para venir a España a vivir la vida dos años y tienes niños pequeños, ya me dirán que hacen con esos niños en un piso en Madrid, en Agosto, sin conocer a nadie y sin soporte familiar. Piscina imprescindible.

[Derby]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html

[Urederra]

[sudden and sharp]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/Cinco-Dias/20240629/page/40/textview

A China le conviene mantener abierta la ruta hacia Europa

https://cincodias.elpais.com/opinion/2024-06-29/gamestop-se-ha-convertido-en-un-mal-banco.html

Saludos.

La dirección aprovechó hábilmente la euforia emitiendo acciones periódicamente. Los inversores aceptaron de forma irracional, comprando una oferta de 2.000 millones a principios de junio y otra de 1.000 millones a finales de mayo. Si añadimos eso a los 1.000 millones que tenía en su balance a 4 de mayo, su pila de efectivo se ha multiplicado por ocho desde finales de 2019.

https://cincodias.elpais.com/opinion/2024-06-29/gamestop-se-ha-convertido-en-un-mal-banco.html




Mientras en el mundo real... 


















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[ Hay una herrata en el artículo... esos himbersores de los que habla, (en negrita) compran en el aftermarket. Los de la foto, no. Esos sólo van de rebajas... (dips)  ]

Edit:
https://packaged-media.redd.it/a24ur70mqf9d1/pb/m2-res_754p.mp4?m=DASHPlaylist.mpd&v=1&e=1719680400&s=44d3ff7f9cb1bcf92010c73d75eca2db12920c1a#t=0

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/139bb46f-1d6c-4727-a95b-8d1d23726f28

Are younger Americans rejecting the homeowning dream?

Meet the millennials who have done the math and say renting property is better for their finances and flexibility

Perhaps sick of being told they could own a home if they only cut back on avocado toast, some US millennials are questioning the shibboleth of home ownership — and the financial model sold to successive generations that your home should be your main source of wealth.

In a viral post on social media platform X, Leandra Peters, under the handle @LPinFinance, broke down the argument for renting rather than buying: “My rent: $2,400. This is not the same as a $2,400 mortgage,” she wrote. “My rent is the maximum I’ll pay per month. A mortgage would be the minimum I’d pay per month. 

“The current home I’m renting is valued at $1.1mn. Let’s do some maths: buying this same home at 6.8 per cent interest over a 30-year fixed term would give me a mortgage payment of $7,171. Homeowner’s insurance: $104 property taxes: $688 HOA: $414 . . . I’d be at $8,377 per month. I think I’ll stick to renting.”

Property taxes in most US states are between 0.75 per cent and 1.75 per cent. HOA are fees payable to a homeowners’ association, which sets rules for a residential community.

$5,977
Difference in monthly outgoings Leandra Peters calculates between renting and owning the property where she lives

Peters clarifies: “I still have assets . . . I invest in the stock market. The stock market doesn’t require me to deal with tenants, toilets and termites. I don’t look at a primary home as an investment.”

Her thread on X has been viewed more than 20.4mn times so far and received some robust responses. However, she is one in a growing chorus of young women who are advocating taking a hard look at the numbers.

US-based financial podcaster and writer Katie Gatti Tassin reached the same conclusion when she started looking to buy in Dallas: “The American dream is to buy a home, it’s considered the pinnacle of making it.” But when she looked closely at the numbers, homeowning didn’t stack up for her.


© Michael Burke

“The stock market doesn’t require me to deal with tenants, toilets and termites. I don’t look at a primary home as an investment”

— LEANDRA PETERS

“Real life did not match the narrative I’d been told about how owning is better than renting,” Tassin says, whose Money with Katie blog, podcast and newsletter was acquired by Insider Inc’s Morning Brew in 2022. The houses she could buy on her budget were far inferior to those she could rent at the same monthly price. She says millennials who choose to buy face spending “three times as much to live in a worse place”: moving from an urban centre to the suburbs where they lose their networks and burn through disposable income to the point they can no longer travel or go out.

“The crux of the problem — that the prices of homes coupled with the cost of borrowing money far exceed the rental market prices,” Tassin says.

She highlights the hidden “unrecoverable” costs of home ownership: the expense of closing the sale, insurance, property taxes and mortgage interest payments alongside expensive maintenance work. As a renter, Tassin points out, when her drains clog, pipes burst, septic system breaks or boiler needs replacing, her landlord has to deal with it. As a homeowner, she would be opening her wallet.

$262,491
Amount paid in bank interest over 13 years on a $400,000 loan at 5.65%

Tassin breaks down an example of buying a $500,000 house, with a $100,000 deposit and $400,000 mortgage that you own for 13 years — the average time a homeowner stayed in one property as of 2021, according to Redfin”. US fixed-rate mortgages tend to be fixed for the full term, unlike the two or five-year terms that are typical of fixed-rate mortgages in the UK.

The biggest false economy to Tassin’s mind is mortgage payments. Assuming the typical US 30-year fixed rate mortgage at 5.65 per cent, she calculated that $2,309 a month on the mortgage after 13 years would total $360,195 (with rounding). But, she notes, $262,491 of this has gone on bank interest. As a result, only $97,704 of the original $400,000 loan has been repaid.

In addition there is an average of $1,217 of extra monthly costs in property tax at 1 per cent of property value, insurance estimated at about 0.6 per cent and maintenance at 1 per cent of house value, says Tassin. In effect, you have handed over $650,136 for the property after 13 years, only $197,704 of which went towards building equity — the principal repayments and the original $100,000 deposit. Because US mortgages tend not to be portable, the remainder of the loan, just over $300,000, would need to be paid off as well at the 13-year mark, as a new property means taking out a new mortgage.

On the other hand, there is an alternative calculation to be made about the cost of renting a similar property for 13 years.


© Gabrielle Freiheit

“The crux of the problem [is] that the prices of homes coupled with the cost of borrowing money far exceed the rental market prices”

— KATIE GATTI TASSIN

Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist and vice-president of research at the National Association of Realtors, would expect house price rises to keep pace with the extra expenses of ownership. In most markets, “after holding on to one’s home for 10 years, which is the typical tenure in home, homeowners gained 97.8 per cent in value from May 2014 to May 2024,” she says. “After 13 years, homeowners gained 147.7 per cent in value of their home.” S&P annualised stock market returns since 2011 have been more than 10 per cent.

Over the decades banks have pushed mortgages, supported by successive governments, and earned plenty for the lenders. House prices have climbed, but so too have mortgage interest rates. Tassin used the rate of 5.65 per cent that she found on Bankrate as the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate when she ran her numbers in summer 2022. The current equivalent is about 7 per cent. A recent survey commissioned by Redfin also found a “nepo” housing market in which 36 per cent of Gen Z and millennial homebuyers in the US expect to turn to the “bank of mom and dad” to support sales.

Although millennials are still very much buying property — by the end of 2022 more than half the generation were homeowners, according to Apartment List — the research also found that many would keep renting. Its 2022 survey found nearly a quarter of the generation, which it defines as those born between 1981 and 1996, plan to “always rent”, citing reasons both negative and positive, from unaffordability of mortgages to flexibility of lifestyle and lack of extra costs. That is up from 13.3 per cent saying they would always rent in 2018.

36%
Gen Z and millennial home buyers likely to turn to the ‘bank of mom and dad’

“A house is illiquid, unlike stocks. It’s harder to take advantage of new job opportunities in other cities and to get out during housing downturns”

— KRISTY SHEN

Shen believes a shift is happening among millennials who have to “adapt to a new reality” rather than following the outdated advice of their parents to get a degree, a job, a pension and a house. It may be well-intended, she says, but doesn’t apply in an era of tech-related job insecurity.

However, she adds, millennials “have tailwinds too. Like the ability to work remotely, travel cheaply using frequent-flyer miles and hotel points, and geographic arbitrage.” 

Does Tassin find it curious that the prominent voices grabbing attention on this subject are women? “I think women are more willing to question whether property ownership is the right path,” she says. “There has been a sea-change in the last decade of financial literacy among women. With that comes questioning of conventional wisdom.

“Millennial and Gen Z women, who watched their mums in the 1990s be their primary caretaker and work full-time — and try to have it all — are now taking a closer eye to how they can maintain their financial independence, especially after motherhood,” Tassin says. “As we’re staying single longer and waiting to have kids it makes sense that home purchase is also up for further scrutiny.

£10,000
Average wealth of renters, according to the Federal Reserve, versus $400,000 for homeowners

“It also doesn’t help that, in the event of divorce in the US, women are more likely to get the house . . . that they can’t afford on their own. This leaves many women in a worse financial position than if they had instead focused on investing in low-maintenance retirement assets and developing income of her own.”

Peters received polarised responses to her X thread. “A significant portion of the feedback was dismissive,” she says, “with some individuals discrediting my perspective solely based on my gender.” But she found many former homeowners agreed that renting better suited their circumstances.

“Some commenters drew comparisons between buying a home today and their own purchases from 23 years ago. It’s a bit like trying to use a floppy disk to store data from the cloud — the principles might be similar but the execution is worlds apart.”

The NAR’s Lautz accepts investments have played a part. “Granted, this year’s home buyers were more likely to use financial assets such as stocks for their downpayment, so the stock market can be a path to home ownership as well,” she says, but adds that the NAR reported an all-time high in median home prices last month. “In this scenario, homeowners are the winners. Last quarter, 90 per cent of metro markets had home price gains, and 30 per cent of metro markets had double-digit price gains from last year.”

And housing remains a long-term wealth repository, she says. “The Federal Reserve reports that homeowners have nearly $400,000 in wealth, while renters have just over $10,000. Homeowners overall in the US have 40 times the wealth of renters.”

Tassin concedes that rents will rise over time. However, “the prices of homes coupled with the cost of borrowing money far exceed the rental market prices in roughly 70 per cent of the US right now”.

Peters admits she hasn’t given up on having her own home. “On an emotional level, I’ve always been drawn to the idea of home ownership,” she says, but is waiting for “when the numbers align for me”.

Shen now lives in Toronto, Canada, following her own 150 rule — taking the monthly mortgage and multiplying it by 1.5. “If that’s less than monthly rent, buy. Otherwise, rent. Don’t follow the herd or your feelings. Follow the maths.”

[puede ser]

https://www.farodevigo.es/galicia/2024/06/21/psoe-santiago-tumba-regulacion-pisos-turisticos-104114540.html

Y a pesar de todo, hemos llegado a un punto* en el que prohibir los pisos turísticos sería un tiro en el pie gravísimo para una país que vive -a corto plazo- de unos turistas que ya no caben en los hoteles. Va a hacer falta un plan mucho más complejo para reconducir la situación.

*Provincia de Pontevedra: 127.000 plazas en VUT, 58.000 en hoteles

Con todos los respetos, pues que le den por el c**o a los turistas. Si no caben más, símplemente que no vengan, que no se promueva ese turismo,o que se suban precios en hoteles (ya de por si estratosféricos tras el covid).

Llamádme loco, pero quizá haya que impular otros sectores más productivos no basados en el rentismo. Si el precio que hay que pagar es que aumente un poco el paro durante un tiempo, me parece hasta razonable.

Claro que sí, a todos nos gusta operar sin anestesia, cortar por lo sano, andar sin miramientos..., pero esto aún no es China y hay que tener alguna posibilidad en las siguientes elecciones.   

[sudden and sharp]

https://www.farodevigo.es/galicia/2024/06/21/psoe-santiago-tumba-regulacion-pisos-turisticos-104114540.html

Y a pesar de todo, hemos llegado a un punto* en el que prohibir los pisos turísticos sería un tiro en el pie gravísimo para una país que vive -a corto plazo- de unos turistas que ya no caben en los hoteles. Va a hacer falta un plan mucho más complejo para reconducir la situación.

*Provincia de Pontevedra: 127.000 plazas en VUT, 58.000 en hoteles

Con todos los respetos, pues que le den por el c**o a los turistas. Si no caben más, símplemente que no vengan, que no se promueva ese turismo,o que se suban precios en hoteles (ya de por si estratosféricos tras el covid).

Llamádme loco, pero quizá haya que impular otros sectores más productivos no basados en el rentismo. Si el precio que hay que pagar es que aumente un poco el paro durante un tiempo, me parece hasta razonable.

Claro que sí, a todos nos gusta operar sin anestesia, cortar por lo sano, andar sin miramientos..., pero esto aún no es China y hay que tener alguna posibilidad en las siguientes elecciones.

Por no decir que hay que comer hasta que arranques esos hotros sectores no rentistas. (Bueno y que, cimpitiendo con lo que ya esté ahí, empiecen a soltar dinerito.)

[sudden and sharp]

 

[sudden and sharp]

 

[sudden and sharp]

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[sudden and sharp]