PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Verano 2024

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-03/zelenskiy-says-ukraine-discussing-transit-of-azeri-gas-to-europe

Zelenskiy Says Ukraine Discussing Transit of Azeri Gas to EU

Russian gas still flows through nation’s pipeline despite war
Transit deal will expire end of 2024, sparking supply concerns

Ukraine is in talks to send natural gas from Azerbaijan to the European Union as it seeks to maintain its role as a transit country and help western neighbors ensure energy security, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said.

A deal to replace Russian gas with Azeri supplies is “one of the proposals” currently being discussed, Zelenskiy said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Kyiv Wednesday. “It’s the cabinet officials who are dealing with this now.”

Europe has tried to wean itself off Russian gas since Moscow’s invasion, but some European states continue to receive it through a pipeline that crosses Ukraine. The agreement that covers this transit arrangement expires at the end of 2024, and with war still raging, many market watchers expect gas flows will come to a halt.

“Alternative steps are being considered now on how we can use the pipeline with another gas supplier, another country. Negotiations are under way,” Zelenskiy said. “We don’t want to extend the gas contract with the Russian Federation. We don’t want them making money here.”

European benchmark gas prices nudged lower after the the president’s remarks, extending the day’s losses below €33 a megawatt-hour.



The current deal between Ukrainian state-run energy company Naftogaz JSC and Russia’s Gazprom PJSC was signed in 2019. Bloomberg News first reported that European officials were in talks to keep gas flowing through Ukraine last month.

Making use of Ukraine’s extensive pipelines would help provide crucial funding for the war-torn economy, where transit revenue amounted to about $1 billion in 2021. There are also concerns that unused pipelines could become targets of military attacks or fall into disrepair that’s expensive to reverse. Moscow already tried to damage some of Ukraine’s gas storage infrastructure in strikes earlier this year.

“If this is a normal supply contract of non-Russian gas to European countries which are appealing to us, then we as future members of the EU, we would have to support our friends,” Zelenskiy said.

Ukraine was once a main conduit for Russian natural gas to Europe, meeting about a quarter of the EU’s needs. Transit shrank after Russia launched alternative routes bypassing the country, and when Moscow curbed most flows to big importers in Europe at the height of the energy crisis in 2022. It still ships around 15 billion cubic meters of gas to the region a year via Ukraine, mainly to Slovakia and Austria.

Azerbaijan has said it wants to boost its gas exports to Europe, but hasn’t secured enough long-term deals yet in order to invest in further production. Until it’s able to boost capacity, it could swap cargoes with Russia, which is not unusual in oil and gas markets when it’s not possible to physically deliver fuel from one location to another.

While that could in theory benefit Russia if it allows Moscow to send its gas elsewhere, such a solution would likely be temporary.

[sudden and sharp]

[Pisemos con pies de plomo en el análisis del sorprendente turismo español. Jamás hay datos fuertes. Todo es siempre estimaciones gruesas. Se parte de la Balanza de Pagos y se hace un 'patrás'. El problema viene cuando hay que distribuir los turistas por nacionalidades de origen. Habría países (Irlanda, Bélgica, etc., ahora Ucrania y Marruecos) en los que buena parte de su población, de todas las edades, tendría que haber viajado a España. Otra cuestión que no encaja es la distribución patrás' de las entradas en puertos y aeropuertos y la redistribución desde ellos a los destinos que se dan como tales. Tampoco encaja la multiplicación del consumo alimentario en los destinos y la logística del mismo.

Nosotros sabemos que el mal llamado alquiler turístico —en realidad, alojamiento de temporada— es humo. Sobre todo se sabe en Hacienda. Pregúntense por qué no proliferan liquidaciones tributarias por esta causa. No le busquen tres pies al gato: se pincha en hueso. Las viviendas dedicadas al alojamiento de los huéspedes cuyo gasto computa como Ingresos por turismo, en la Balanza de Pagos, están desocupadas casi todo el año. En las costas, hay edificios enteros de apartamentos en los que, entre la segunda quincena de septiembre y la primera del junio siguiente, jamás se enciende una sola luz. Sin embargo, se valoran descontando un flujo de ingresos de alojamiento que jamás habrá y se usan con fruición en el juego de dinero-sin-trabajar del ladrillo.

Bendita mierda de viviendas vacías que nos permiten sesgar al alza las estimaciones macroeconómicas. Hay alguna excepción (Ibiza, etc.), pero, en general, el turismo español es una patraña.

Lástima que las deudas no se estimen también.

Para leer el Balance de una empresa, lo mejor es ir directamente al Pasivo Exigible propio y al de las participadas, porque las deudas son difíciles de ocultar.

Hablando de deudas, las generadas por Idealista, contando la del adquirente actual, quedan en 2.000 y pico mill. eur., ¡una empresa que tiene poco más de 100 mill. eur. de Ebitda! (imagínense que ganan 100 mil euros brutos anuales —antes de IRPF— y se piden un préstamo de 2 millones de euros). El conjunto de Idealista va a tener problemas para invertir productivamente y para honrar su deuda, salvo que, en efecto se consolide un escenario de tipos de interés a la baja, pero muy a la baja. En este sentido, la operación sobre Idealista es una apuesta decididamente deflacionaria. A nosotros nos importa que los acreedores financieros tienen absolutamente todo el poder. Y estos, como siempre, parecen un 'pool', pero en realidad solo son tres: Banco Santander, La Caixa y BBVA; es decir, los tres ositos de peluche del Banco España y, por tanto del BCE. Me pregunto cuál es el que lleva la voz cantante. Ellos dicen que el Santa. Yo creo que es La Caixa.

Desde luego, esta operación de Idealista es su última 'de plusvalías'. Salir a Bolsa, amargo engañabobos de los chicos del DOP (Dinero de Otras Personas) dedicados a las operaciones F&A (Fusiones y Adquisiciones). Empieza la aburridísima velocidad de crucero de la empresa, ahora penetrada por Tinsa, la tasadora de las Cajas de Ahorros.

Nunca hay que creerse nada en los finales de ciclo estructural.

Dense cuenta que Idealista ha tenido tres adquisiciones. En números redondos, contando lo que se llevan los chicos de la industria del DOP-F&A y la contingencia fiscal por plusvalías netas, la segunda adquisición supuso un aumento del 'valor', ¡ja!, del 300%; pero la tercera, respecto de la segunda, solo del 100%. Es decir que la plusvalía, después de ajustes, ha caído, atención, señoras, señores, un...

–60%

Todo encaja tanto que asusta.

Estimemos cuánto de verdad hay en las cifras por turismo. Se me ocurre empezar a hablar aplicando este coeficiente del –60% a las estimaciones publicitadas.

En general, todo aquello que rechina en España no tiene por qué no ser un –60% de lo que parece que es. –60% viene a ser algo menos de la mitad. Parece mármol, pero es escayola.]

Dejémoslo en la mitad de la mitad... 








----
Análisis: El mío.

Maestro.... Del dólar.




Hay que hablar del DÓLAR.   







---------
[ Sí..., hay que joderse. (Tampoco me apetece... pero toca.) ]

[sargento.algodon]

Me ha hecho gracia un montaje, de alguien presionando los dos botones de la maquina de refrescos. En uno pone "aumentar la oferta de vivienda no bajara los precios" y en el otro "prohibimos los pisos turísticos para aumentar la oferta y que bajen los precios". La mano que presiona pone que son los "progres".

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/4ade7284-21ea-4535-915c-17abce46e12f

Kamala Harris set to meet Joe Biden as Democratic party anxiety deepens

US vice-president’s lunch meeting comes as pressure builds on president to withdraw from White House race

Joe Biden was set to sit down with Kamala Harris and a group of influential Democratic governors on Wednesday, as speculation swirled over whether the president would ditch his re-election bid in favour of his vice-president.

The White House and the Biden campaign have for days insisted that the president will stay in the race after a disastrous debate performance last week that raised serious questions about his fitness for office and ability to beat Donald Trump at the ballot box.(...)

[sudden and sharp]

Me ha hecho gracia un montaje, de alguien presionando los dos botones de la maquina de refrescos. En uno pone "aumentar la oferta de vivienda no bajara los precios" y en el otro "prohibimos los pisos turísticos para aumentar la oferta y que bajen los precios". La mano que presiona pone que son los "progres".

[Derby]

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/07/links-7-3-2024.html



https://theconversation.com/what-happens-next-in-ukraines-debt-negotiations-could-change-the-course-of-the-war-233355

[Derby]

https://www.bolsamania.com/noticias/mercados/economiafinanzas--santander-acuerda-vender-a-hoist-una-cartera-hipotecaria-de-npls-de-270-millones--17034663.html

Economía/Finanzas.- Santander acuerda vender a Hoist una cartera hipotecaria de NPLs de 270 millones

Santander ha acordado vender a la firma sueca Hoist Finance una cartera de préstamos dudosos (NPLs) hipotecarios valorada en 270 millones de euros, según han confirmado fuentes financieras a Europa Press. Desde el banco no han realizado comentarios al respecto.

Hoist pagará alrededor de 100 millones de euros para hacerse con la cartera, que aglutina préstamos en España. La firma Apollo también había presentado oferta para adquirir el portfolio, según publica 'Bloomberg', que ha adelantado la información.

Cabe destacar que a cierre de marzo Santander tenía una ratio de mora del 3,10%, ligeramente por debajo del 3,14% que presentaba a finales de 2023, aunque por encima del 3,05% que registraba en el primer trimestre del año pasado.

En España, la ratio de mora en marzo se situaba en el 3,00%, reduciéndose en comparación tanto con el dato de diciembre de 2023, cuando cerró en el 3,06% como con el del primer trimestre del ejercicio pasado, cuando estaba en el 3,19%.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-03/santander-sells-stake-in-real-estate-partnership-to-intrum

Santander Sells Stake in Real Estate Partnership to Intrum

Banco Santander SA sold its stake in a credit and real estate partnership it had with Intrum AB as it simplifies management of its assets.

Santander, which owned 15% of the partnership called Aktua Soluciones Financieras Holding, sold the stake to Intrum for around €10 million ($11 million), according to people familiar with the matter. Intrum will continue managing some of the real estate assets and non performing loans of Santander, the people said, asking not to be named because the deal is private.

Representatives for the two firms declined to comment.

Santander, Spain’s largest bank, has been working to exit units that manage non-performing loans, many of which it inherited with past acquisitions of smaller lenders. The reshaping is being led by Javier Garcia-Carranza, who oversees investment platforms and corporate holdings and was appointed global head of Santander’s wealth management and insurance division in May.

Banco Santander also decided to sell a stake of 15% in DoValue SpA’s Spanish unit last year and was considering the sale of another unit called Diglo.

Aktua manages some of the Santander’s credit portfolios and real estate assets. Banco Santander inherited the stake as part of its takeover of Banco Espanol de Credito SA in 2013.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-03/biden-debate-disaster-will-cost-them-house-and-senate-democrats-fear

House Democrats Consider Demanding Biden Withdraw From Race

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-03/ll-flooring-mulls-bankruptcy-filing-as-home-renovations-sputter

LL Flooring Mulls Bankruptcy Filing as Home Renovations Slow

Company warned it may run low on cash in the third quarter
High interest rates have dragged down home sales, renovations


An LL Flooring store in Beltsville, Maryland, US, on Monday, Aug. 21, 2023.Photographer: Nathan Howard/Bloomberg

LL Flooring Holdings Inc. is considering filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, according to people with knowledge of the matter, who asked not to be named discussing private deliberations.

The flooring retailer, formerly known as Lumber Liquidators, has struggled as higher interest rates curtail home renovation activity. Filing for bankruptcy could help it cope with dwindling access to cash and slumping sales.

LL Flooring may seek protection from creditors in the coming weeks, a person with knowledge of the matter said. The plans aren’t final and could change.

LL Flooring shares fell as much as 31% to about 92 cents after Bloomberg reported the potential bankruptcy filing.

Company adviser Houlihan Lokey Inc. has been reaching out to potential investors about a deal to inject fresh capital into the company, Bloomberg previously reported.

LL Flooring has been trying to sell a distribution center in Virginia in order to bolster its cash reserves, regulatory filings show. The company said last week it may violate a minimum liquidity rule under its asset-backed credit agreement as soon as the third quarter. LL Flooring is talking with its banks about modifying the credit agreement, it said.

A representative for LL Flooring declined to comment, as did a representative with AlixPartners, which is advising the company on its operations.

In the first three months of the year, the company saw its net sales drop 21.7% to $188.5 million compared to a year earlier. It cited a “difficult macroeconomic environment” and “brand awareness challenges” for its woes.

LL Flooring has more than 400 locations. It changed its name from Lumber Liquidators in 2020 after it was forced to pay $33 million a year earlier to settle securities fraud allegations.

[mpt]

Este artículo nos muestra que lo que tenemos es una metástasis
https://www.eldiario.es/economia/radiografia-pais-pequenos-rentistas-tres-millones-familias-ingresos-alquiler_1_11494665.html

Tres millones de familias tienen ingresos por alquiler. Lógicamente no todos expolian pero los datos dejan claro que el ladrillo está enquistado en España

Me encanta luego cuando la gente empieza a tirar espumarajos por la boca con los fondos buitres, los bancos y demás mantras. El que te roba es tu vecino, tu amigo, tu padre, etc. No es ningún orondo ricachón con puro y copa en la mano en un castillo lejano riéndose a mandíbula batiente.

los pisos bajaran cuando esos inversores decidan que invertir en otras cosas es mas ventajoso; eso sucederá cuando dejen de disfrutar de chollos, fraudes y chanchullos y cuando les obliguen a pagar impuestos gordos

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-01/eu-commercial-property-drama-has-years-to-play-out-donnery-says

EU Commercial Property Drama Has Years to Play Out, Donnery Says

Market has seen ‘a very big shock,’ Irish central banker says
Banks should take ‘very robust’ approach to provisioning

The turmoil on commercial real estate will likely take years to play out, a top financial regulator warned, indicating pressure on banks to prepare for losses won’t ease any time soon.
“There’s been a very big shock,” Sharon Donnery, a member of the European Central Bank’s Supervisory Board, said in an interview in Dublin about the asset class. “I think it’s going to be a couple of years” until that is digested.

The market for commercial property, and in particular for office buildings, has been hit hard by the rapid rate increases the ECB implemented starting in 2022. The hit was compounded by rising vacancy rates as more companies have allowed staff to work from home, as well as high investment needs for older buildings to ensure they meet tougher energy efficiency standards.

Donnery’s remarks, which come after the ECB’s rate cut last month fueled expectations of an imminent recovery in the property market, suggest the ECB sees no reason to moderate a clampdown on risk in property lending.

Banks should have a “very forward looking view of where the risks are” in commercial real estate and take a “very robust approach” to provisioning for those risks, said Donnery, who oversees the Irish banking sector as a deputy governor of the Central Bank of Ireland.

The ECB has probed banks with relatively large exposures to commercial property, notably second-tier lenders in Germany, which has been at the epicenter of the crisis. Several property developers have gone bust, leading lenders including Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG, Aareal Bank AG and Landesbank Hessen-Thueringen to set aside substantial amounts for credit losses.

The decision by the ECB last month to start cutting interest rates has led some market observers to forecast that the turmoil in European commercial property markets may soon come to an end.

“The European real estate market is healing,” UBS Group AG real estate analyst Olaf Margeirsson said in a report on Thursday. “The next few months will be crucial in determining how robust the recovery will be,” he said, adding that the key factor to watch will be how quickly inflation allows central banks to cut rates.

The ECB began lowering rates in June but most officials have since been cagey on what will happen next as the rate of consumer price growth has continued to exceed the central bank’s target. Investors currently expect another cut of 25 basis point this year, and potentially even a third one.

Here, too, Donnery struck a more cautious note.

“There’s probably more uncertainty than there was even a couple of months ago” about how rates will affect commercial real estate, said Donnery. Work from home and new energy standards mean “there’s a way to go on sort of flushing all of that out.”

While European banks are “well-positioned” to deal with any potential fallout from commercial real estate, Donnery said, “I don’t think we can be complacent.”

Donnery’s home country of Ireland was forced to bail out its banks in 2008 following the bursting of a property bubble. Lenders in some other countries that didn’t have that kind of experience aren’t necessarily as alert to the risks, she added.

“If you’ve been through a big issue before, you’re more likely to have looked at your systems and controls, and if your supervisor has been a big through a big issue, they are obviously very alert to what’s going on,” said Donnery. “There are banks in some particular jurisdictions that have maybe not had as significant a focus on this.”

[Derby]

https://financialpost.com/news/economy/central-banks-fight-inflation-governments-step-up

Central banks have done their part to fight inflation, now governments must step up

Agustin Carstens: Central banks alone cannot deliver a durable increase in economic growth and prosperity

Central banks have shown they can take forceful action to head off the most dramatic increase in inflation in a generation. They took steps to protect the purchasing power of people and firms. Although the last mile to return to price stability is not yet complete, the end is well in sight.

Inflation hurts most those who are least able to hedge against it. Intervention was needed to remedy what seemed a relentless surge in the cost of living. To restore price stability, central banks unleashed the biggest and most synchronized global monetary policy tightening in decades.

This episode has shown the value of having independent institutions outside the political process as the guardians of price stability. Their ability to operate at arm’s length from governments helps central banks take what can be unpalatable and politically unpopular decisions in the interests of wrangling inflation down.

To be sure, circumstances helped. Recovering trade logistics and falling commodity prices supported disinflation. However, we saw in the 1970s how a burst of inflation, if not countered, can trigger a shift to a high-inflation mindset. By acting with determination, in line with their mandates, central banks have prevented high inflation from becoming entrenched. Without prompt and decisive central bank action, restoring price stability could have come at a significant hit to growth and jobs.

Now is not the time to let down our guard. Inflation is lower, yet not low enough in some places. Upsets can come in the final minutes of any game. Compared to other prices, the cost of services and take-home pay are both lagging pre-pandemic trends and a rapid catch-up could see renewed upward pressure on inflation. Central banks must stay the course.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-03/us-trade-deficit-widens-to-largest-since-2022-on-weaker-exports

US Trade Deficit Widens to Largest Since 2022 on Weaker Exports

May gap in goods, services trade widened 0.8% to $75.1 billion
Bigger deficit indicates trade will subtract from 2Q GDP

The US trade deficit widened in May to the largest since 2022 as a decline in exports of merchandise exceeded a drop in imports.

The gap in goods and services trade grew 0.8% from the prior month to $75.1 billion, the widest since October 2022, Commerce Department data showed Wednesday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a $76.5 billion deficit.

The value of goods and services exports decreased 0.7%, while imports fell 0.3%. The figures aren’t adjusted for inflation.


(...)

[Derby]

https://fortune.com/2024/07/03/housing-affordability-crisis-ever-shaun-donovan/

We’re passing through ‘the worst housing affordability crisis’ ever seen, former Housing Secretary says— and it isn’t going to fix itself

Home prices and rents skyrocketed during the pandemic-fueled housing boom; and mortgage rates subsequently soared. Because mortgage rates shot up from historic lows so suddenly, people stopped selling their homes, and because the country is underbuilt by millions of homes, the sales halt didn’t help. The housing market has cooled down since: home prices aren’t increasing exponentially, mortgage rates are lower than the more than two-decade high reached last year, rents are generally flatlining, and inventory picked up. Still, everything feels very different than before the pandemic.

“We’re just coming through the worst housing affordability crisis we’ve ever seen in this country,” Shaun Donovan, former U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development in the Obama era and chief executive of Enterprise Community Partners (a housing nonprofit), said in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday. “We had 18% year-over-year increase in rents, home prices rising at levels we’ve never seen. So we are seeing some leveling off, but it’s at a level that is well beyond what folks could afford.”

He continued: “This isn’t just going to turn around by itself. We have too little housing in this country, and we’ve got to build more.” Donovan later put the housing shortage at between five and seven million homes, but estimates vary.

The biggest driver of inflation

Urban economists, housing policy analysts, real estate executives, and others have said it time and time again: more homes need to be built. But of course that’s easier said than done. Local governments and neighborhoods hold a lot of the power when it comes to development. Still, Donovan said, this recent bout of unaffordability is spurring discussion amongst mayors, governors, and lawmakers.

Not to mention, he said, “the primary thing that’s driving inflation today is housing prices. So we’ve got to do more on the housing front in order to bring inflation down.” And while the housing situation has somewhat calmed down, “we should recognize that we’ve been up at a level that we’ve never seen before in terms of the affordability crisis.”

Donovan pointed to a recently released report from Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies, which found almost one in four homeowners were “stretched worryingly thin,” and half of all renter households were considered cost-burdened, spending more than 30% of their income on housing, as of 2022.

For context, the median rent for all bedrooms and all property types is $2,150, according to Zillow. In May, the median existing home sales price was $419,300, the highest price ever recorded, according to the National Association of Realtors. And at the moment, the average 30-year fixed daily mortgage rate is 7.08% (the weekly one is 6.95%). Separately, Zillow’s monthly housing report for May found home values are 45% higher than before the pandemic, and the typical mortgage payment has more than doubled, increasing 115% since pre-pandemic.

Andy Walden, vice president of enterprise research strategy at ICE Mortgage Technology, who was also a part of the CNBC interview, said most baseline forecasts for the housing market don’t really predict a decline in national home prices. “It’s more for a neutral housing market for a couple of years to help this kind of rebalance,” he said. But that’s not accounting for pandemic boomtowns, such as Austin, which has seen its home prices fall considerably from their peak. “There are going to be some markets that come down, but nationally, expect it to go more lateral than down,” Walden said.

Zillow, for one, expects home prices to fall 1.2% between May this year and next, while Moody’s expects them to rise 0.4%. And Fannie Mae sees home prices ending next year up 1.5%. We’ll see who’s the closest.

[asustadísimos]

[https://www.transicionestructural.net/index.php?topic=2608.msg230622#msg230622

El Santa:

• Vende por 100 derechos de cobro valorados en 270...

–60%

• se desprende de Aktua, y

• ha decidido desprenderse de DoValue.

Los listos, de liquidación. Los tontos, reteniendo 'producto', a la espera de no sé qué.]