PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Primavera 2025

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/ad80f737-3261-4e11-8608-2ed3db522e55

The Magnificent Seven just entered a bear market

Q1: grizzly


A stuffed polar bear near the elevator inside the Greenland Representative’s office in Copenhagen, apparently © Getty Images

Here’s a word you don’t hear much these days: Magnificent.



Based on intraday pricing, America’s tech megacaps are in a bear market, having lost more than 20 per cent from Christmas Eve record-high close.

The above chart uses UBS’s Mag7 index, which is fixed to 100 on incorporation in October 2023 and rebalances twice yearly. Arguments about technical bear-market definitions are for the comment box.

Below is the view from an individual stock level. Click the stock names to turn the lines on and off.



Maybe we can worry a bit less now about stock-market concentration?

[tomasjos]

Mientras todo esto pasa, ¿se dan cuenta de que el gobierno está tomando bajo control estatal sectores estratégicos, empresa a empresa?

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/19ee5f60-106c-4dd9-a55d-f7e4d36861b5

EU brandishes ‘strong plan’ to retaliate against US tariffs

Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen says Brussels could hit Big Tech services exports


Ursula von der Leyen says Europe’s strength is built on its ‘readiness to take firm countermeasures. All instruments are on the table’ © Frederick Florin/AFP/Getty Images

The EU has a “strong plan to retaliate” against US tariffs expected on Wednesday, the president of the European Commission has said.

Ursula von der Leyen told the European parliament on Tuesday that the bloc was prepared to hit services exports including those from Big Tech companies if US President Donald Trump imposed “reciprocal tariffs” on all imports into the US.

Brussels would negotiate “from a position of strength”, she said. “Europe holds a lot of cards. From trade to technology to the size of our market. But this strength is also built on our readiness to take firm countermeasures. All instruments are on the table,” she said. 

The EU has the ability to hit services exports, where the US has a surplus. That could include suspending some intellectual property rights and excluding companies from public procurement contracts under its enforcement regulation.

A further escalation would be to use the “anti-coercion” instrument for the first time. This allows even tougher action on intellectual property and public procurement. The bloc could reduce access by US financial services companies to its market.

Such measures require a weighted majority of member states to agree.

Brussels has so far delayed extra duties on up to €26bn of US goods after Washington imposed steel and aluminium tariffs, because some countries including France feared an even bigger counter-attack from the US.

The EU has yet to announce any response to Trump’s 25 per cent tariffs on cars. Von der Leyen warned that the US might move next on semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and timber.

She said the EU still wanted to negotiate first because tariffs would fuel inflation, cost US jobs and “create a bureaucratic monster of new customs procedures”. 

Officials said they hoped the planned US announcement on Wednesday was simply the prelude to a round of talks. 

However, the US has insisted on discussing not just tariff levels but tax rates and EU health standards, which it believes unfairly block its farm produce.

Washington also says EU member states’ VAT systems are unfair to its companies. It also wants countries that apply digital taxes to technology companies to scrap them, and for Brussels to loosen digital regulation on the grounds that it punishes US companies, and stifles innovation and free speech.

The Financial Times reported last week that the commission would soon levy fines on Apple and Meta for breaching its Digital Markets Act.

Von der Leyen offered to work with the US on pressuring China to change its export-led economic model, without naming the country directly.

There were “severe issues in the world of trade”, she said. “Overcapacities, imbalances, unfair subsidies, denial of market access, intellectual property theft. I hear Americans, when they say some others have taken advantage of the rules. I agree. We also suffer from it. So let us work on it.”

[Derby]

https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/defense-spending-to-boost-german-and-european-gdp-growth

Defense spending to boost German and European GDP growth



The economic growth outlook is improving in Germany — and in Europe as a whole — amid a fiscal plan that emerged after Germany’s federal election and the prospect of higher military spending across the region, according to Goldman Sachs Research.

German voters in late February put Friedrich Merz in line to become Chancellor and gave his Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) a slim legislative majority that should allow for a two-party coalition. This outcome makes higher government spending more likely. The coalition partners have announced a fiscal plan to exempt substantial defense outlays from Germany’s so-called debt brake and to create a €500 billion ($546 billion) off-budget infrastructure and climate protection fund, among other steps.

In light of these developments, Goldman Sachs Research Chief European Economist Sven Jari Stehn and his team increased their forecast for real GDP growth in Germany this year to 0.2% from flat. They also raised their 2026 forecast by 0.5 percentage point to 1.5% and increased the estimate for 2027 by 0.6 percentage point to 2%.

“Growth could be higher with quicker implementation,” Stehn and his colleagues write in a report. “In practice, we think the implementation will be more gradual given capacity constraints and well-known challenges with stepping up public investment.”

Why the German economy is improving

The researchers examine the potential impact of three key elements in the fiscal plan. Defense spending in excess of 1% of GDP would become exempt from the debt brake, Germany’s constitutional limit on structural deficits. The team sees military spending ramping up to 3% of GDP by 2027 and reaching 3.5% after that. The off-budget infrastructure and climate protection fund, designed to last 12 years, would boost spending gradually, raising expenditures by €40 billion above our economists’ pre-election baseline in 2027. A third feature of the fiscal plan increases the permissible structural deficit German states can run. This and the freed-up space in the federal budget may be partially used for tax cuts.

The lower house of parliament (Bundestag) passed the package this week and our researchers expect the fiscal package to also pass the upper house (Bundesrat) later this week, before newly elected Bundestag members are seated in late March. Business leaders and investors have been pushing for a loosening of Germany’s debt rules and a boost in government spending, as the economy has been sluggish for several years, a growth laggard among the large European nations.

The outlook for euro area GDP growth

The researchers also raised their forecasts for the euro zone as a whole. They added 0.1 percentage point to this year’s growth estimate, bringing it to 0.8% for the region. They increased the 2026 forecast by 0.2 percentage point to 1.3%, and boosted the 2027 numbers by 0.3 percentage point to 1.6%.

“One reason is that we expect stronger growth in Germany to spill over into neighboring countries,” Stehn writes of the forecast change. “Another reason is that we now expect the rest of the euro area to step up military spending somewhat more quickly in response to the German announcement.”

The team sees France boosting defense spending to 2.9% of GDP by 2027, Italy reaching 2.8% of GDP, and Spain boosting outlays to 2.7% of GDP. This is a 0.3 percentage point increase from the researchers’ previous estimates. Some of the increases in defense outlays could be offset by spending cuts elsewhere or tax increases, the researchers note, as these countries bump up against their own fiscal limits, resulting in a smaller economic boost.



“We see risks in both directions around our new forecast” for the euro zone, Stehn writes. A steeper increase in public spending, especially in Germany, could create faster-than-forecast growth in 2026 and 2027.

On the other hand, the researchers acknowledge the ongoing risk that tariffs and trade tensions with the US might have a greater-than-expected impact. The researchers have as a baseline a 0.5 percentage point drag on growth from targeted tariffs and trade policy uncertainty in 2025. “An across-the-board tariff could imply an additional hit to growth of 0.5% this year,” they write.

The prospect of increased government spending across the euro zone decreases pressure on the European Central Bank to cut rates below the neutral policy rate, the researchers find. They now expect that the central bankers will be satisfied by cutting rates to a terminal rate of 2%, with 0.25% cuts expected in April and June (the policy rate is 2.5% now), rather than lowering it further in July.

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-bond-manager-pimco-looks-abroad-us-exceptionalism-fades-2025-04-01/

US bond manager PIMCO looks abroad as US exceptionalism fades

NEW YORK, April 1 (Reuters) - U.S. bond firm PIMCO said on Tuesday that waning business and consumer confidence under President Donald Trump's policies is eroding the edge U.S. capital markets held over the rest of the world, strengthening the case for investors to diversify globally.

Trump is set to unveil "reciprocal tariffs," aligning U.S. duties with those of other nations on April 2, a move that could deepen a market downturn caused by his economic policies that has already seen U.S. stocks post their most dismal three-month stretch since 2022.

"With both business and consumer confidence declining, the U.S. economic and financial-market exceptionalism of recent years could be fading," PIMCO said in a report written by Tiffany Wilding, an economist, and Andrew Balls, chief investment officer for global fixed income.

"With the U.S. signaling a pullback from some traditional functions ... long-held assumptions about the U.S. as a reliable international leader are being challenged," they said. "These changes may coincide with the twilight of the recent U.S. capital markets’ outperformance relative to the rest of the world."

PIMCO expects U.S. protectionist policies will rekindle inflation and lead U.S. economic growth to slow this and next year, while government spending in Europe could improve those countries' economic prospects.

"There is a strong case to diversify away from highly priced U.S. equities into a broader mix of global, high-quality bonds," said the California-based fund manager, which manages nearly $2 trillion in assets.

At the same time, while European fiscal expansion could boost growth, it also makes their bonds less attractive, said PIMCO, which instead favors the UK and Australia for so-called 'duration' - or exposure to bonds that could benefit from cuts in interest rates.

More broadly, PIMCO said it anticipates the beginning of a multi-year phase where fixed income assets - such as corporate and sovereign bonds - may outperform equities.

"In this unusually uncertain macroeconomic environment, it’s prudent to prioritize simple, stable investments over trying to predict the unpredictable," it said.

[Benzino Napaloni]

Mientras todo esto pasa, ¿se dan cuenta de que el gobierno está tomando bajo control estatal sectores estratégicos, empresa a empresa?

Sánchez de tonto no tiene un pelo. Podrá caer bien o no, es un cabronazo, pero todo esto está claro que tiene un plan y unas causas detrás.

El gran tabú en España sigue siendo el banano, seguramente no se atreverá a soltar la liebre hasta que sea inevitable y que antes le haya dado tiempo a amarrar todo lo posible.

Lo malo es que la juventud española no está para aguantar ni un minuto más sin futuro, incluso sin presente.

[asustadísimos]

[A los que no nos gusta la mierda nos encanta que el emisor del dinero fiduciario sea el Banco Central Europeo. A un servidor, del euro me gusta hasta como huele*. El dinero no pierde poder adquisitivo linealmente en todos los bienes y servicios. Solo lo hace respecto de aquellos provistos por los hijos de la Gran Bretaña... que pueden metérselos por donde les quepan. Respecto del resto de bienes y servicios, el dinero gana poder adquisitivo. Por ejemplo, los servicios de los comemierdas**, normalmente prestados a hijos de la Gran Bretaña. Hecha esta constatación, tengo que terminar diciendo que, no obstante, lo mejor de la vida es gratis.
___
* Respecto del dinero, hay dos tipos de personas: los que reconocemos que nos gusta (incluso como huele de nuevo) y los que no.
** Hay dos tipos de comemierdas: los que reconocen que son malos y los que no.]

[CHOSEN]

El dinero es deuda. El dinero se crea cuando alguna persona se endeuda.

He dicho muchas veces que el dinero se crea cuando se crea riqueza.
Yo mato un bisonte, y como quiero tomates en vez de tus gallinas -porque ya tengo carne-, creo dinero para que se utilice como intermediario en la compra de tomates, en la compra de bisonte, y en la compra de gallinas.
Creamos dinero por valor del bisonte, de tus gallinas, y de los tomates.
Creamos un mercado.
Al dinero llámalo oro, conchas, o lo que sea.

El dinero se inventó así. Eso es el dinero.
La introducción del bisonte "futuro" en la ecuación (deuda equivalente al bisonte aún sin cazar) es muchísimo posterior a la invención del dinero.
Esto es historia, no es economía.

Quien acepta dinero basado en deuda tiene un problema.

[asustadísimos]

[Noticia eraceroísta española de hoy:

El rey emérito se ha presentado en ca la abogá de El Novio —señora que ya lleva encima haber sufrido la sustracción de su ordenador portátil de uso profesional— para que le tramite una demandita contra su amiguete el jubilata cantabroncetillo Revilla. Son media docena de declaraciones o así. Su tono general es el siguiente:

— El Hormiguero (Antena 3), mayo de 2022: «Es la gran decepción de mi vida. He tenido con él una gran relación, hasta confidencias y he hecho cosas por él. Fue la portada de un libro mío muy vendido... y se me cayó cuando descubro que es un evasor fiscal, con una pasta gansa fuera, que nos ha pedido que seamos ejemplares».

Le pide solo 50 mil euritos. Es ¡¡¡la mitad!! de lo que El Novio le pide al presidente del Gobierno por haberle llamado 'delincuente confeso' cuando confesó por correo electrónico ante la Fiscalía que, sí, que «ciertamente» había cometido dos delitos fiscales (con facturas falsas, para más inri).

Evidentemente, la abogada no puede decir que no al rey: va a ser famosísima, lo que le llevará horas y horas de medios de comunicación de masas, si es que no se le tuerce algo, en cuyo caso, todo el tiempo del mundo sería nada.

Faltan días para que El Novio cante por acción u omisión La Traviata (La Descarrilada, perdón, La Descarriada, que muere de tisis en brazos del novio).

¡Viva el rey!

Yo creo que ahora le toca al coronel Baños sacar punta a todo esto.

Dejo implícita la moraleja de esta jugada desamparista en grado superlativo. Pero permítanme decir lo que me sale de dentro:

¡Hurra por el Estado español!

El arranque de la Era Cero está siendo divertidísimo.

P. S.: La apelación al coronel Baños está justificada porque la abogada ha escrito un libro, que se llama «Crónica de la degradación democrática española: España 2017-2023: los años de la voladura institucional», libro 'ikerjimenizable', donde analiza la supuestamente infame intervención del Sááánchez en el Centro Nacional de Inteligencia, aparte de en otros organismos públicos, como el Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas, el Tribunal de Cuentas, la Fiscalía General del Estado, el Consejo General del Poder Judicial y el Tribunal Constitucional.]

[asustadísimos]

[Si tú intercambias un bisonte por conchas, eres un tontivano... salvo que haya alguien que administra las conchas, para el que son una obligación (relación obligacional: crédito y deuda).

La frase el dinero es deuda es un clásico de la Academia.]

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://elpais.com/economia/2025-03-31/el-euribor-se-estanca-en-marzo-ante-las-dudas-sobre-la-continuidad-de-los-recortes-de-tipos.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/opinion/2025-04-01/las-claves-las-contradicciones-del-sistema-de-pensiones-y-del-modelo-economico-occidental.html

https://elpais.com/economia/2025-03-31/el-gobierno-evita-el-ajuste-de-las-pensiones-pero-la-airef-alerta-del-empeoramiento-de-la-sostenibilidad.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://elpais.com/economia/2025-04-01/la-guerra-comercial-de-trump-amenaza-con-provocar-una-recesion-en-estados-unidos.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/mercados-financieros/2025-03-31/lagarde-llama-a-europa-a-caminar-hacia-la-independencia-ante-los-aranceles-de-trump.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/companias/2025-04-01/lopesan-anuncia-un-ere-para-los-trabajadores-del-hotel-miguel-angel.html

https://cincodias.elpais.com/companias/2025-04-01/culmia-busca-un-inversor-para-sus-3000-viviendas-de-alquiler-asequible-en-construccion.html

Saludos.