PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Primavera 2025

[tomasjos]

El gobierno da un ultimátum a las energéticas para entregar los datos sobre el apagón

https://www.vozpopuli.com/espana/politica/gobierno-respalda-corredor-ultimatum-energeticas-datos.html

Da la sensación de que saben lo que ha pasado y están poniendo contra la pared a las eléctricas. Estoy con Pollo, esto tiene pinta de que apagaron centrales porque no salía a cuenta y cuando hizo falta no estaban lo que obligó a apagar todo lo demás.

[pollo]

El gobierno da un ultimátum a las energéticas para entregar los datos sobre el apagón

https://www.vozpopuli.com/espana/politica/gobierno-respalda-corredor-ultimatum-energeticas-datos.html

Da la sensación de que saben lo que ha pasado y están poniendo contra la pared a las eléctricas. Estoy con Pollo, esto tiene pinta de que apagaron centrales porque no salía a cuenta y cuando hizo falta no estaban lo que obligó a apagar todo lo demás.

Si acabase siendo así (ya veremos) sería otro triunfo más del mercao y la codicia humana.

A los técnicos no les reporta ningún beneficio hacer estas cosas (van a cobrar lo mismo), así que estas decisiones las tomarían los que ganan pasta con ellas.

[tomasjos]

Sobre la recesión estadounidense

https://www.elconfidencial.com/economia/2025-04-30/trump-pone-eeuu-camino-recesion-pib-contrajo-0-3-primer-trimestre_4119873/

Dice que cayó el 0,3 en el primer trimestre, más de lo que los analistas calculaban

[tomasjos]

Ahora se vuelve sobre la tesis del ciberataque

https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2025-04-30/gobierno-hipotesis-empresa-ataque-informatico-apagon_4118998/

Esto no es compatible con la hipótesis de que se apagaron las centrales porque no interesaba tenerlas encendidas

[tomasjos]

Pareciera que está poniendo el gobierno el foco en Iberdrola.
Si mal no me acuerdo Iberdrola es la joya de la corona de los grupos económicos y políticos más reaccionarios de España , relacionada en su tiempo con el Banco Popular
https://www.elconfidencial.com/empresas/2025-04-30/el-gobierno-pide-a-las-energetica-que-envien-de-inmediato-sus-datos-del-dia-del-apagon_4119830/

[senslev]

Ahora se vuelve sobre la tesis del ciberataque

https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2025-04-30/gobierno-hipotesis-empresa-ataque-informatico-apagon_4118998/

Esto no es compatible con la hipótesis de que se apagaron las centrales porque no interesaba tenerlas encendidas

En teoría da lo mismo qué lo provocó, con las centrales apagadas no hay nada que hacer, lo que pasa que esta vez no dio tiempo a avisar a los grandes consumidores de energía para que dejaran de consumir.

[tomasjos]

El juez declara secreta la causa sobre el apagón

https://www.larazon.es/espana/juez-declara-secreta-causa-sabotaje-impedir-que-manipule-investigacion_2025043068121b66e52da91ed53430b1.html

[Derby]

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/29/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

Dow falls 200 points after first-quarter GDP contracts, raising recession fears

[asustadísimos]

[EE. UU. en recesión.— EE. UU. lleva tiempo en recesión, entendida esta en sentido amplio. Precisamente, el objetivo de las autoridades es darla oficialmente.

No adelantemos acontecimientos, señoras, señores.

El 'Bureau of Economic Analysis' es una oficina de la autoridad fiscal. Dice que el PIB_Gasto_Q1 del EE. UU. lleva el signo menos delante. Sin embargo, no está diciendo que EE. UU. esté en recesión; sino que, por efecto del anuncio de la subida de aranceles, se ha importado anticipadamente más de la cuenta y, como las importaciones restan en la ecuación del PIB_Gasto (Demanda), su estimación del dato, ¡estimación!, les 'sale' con un signo menos delante; pero también dice que:
1.º Lo más pequeño que, por ello, sale el PIB_Gasto_Q1 es insignificante;
2.º Conforme vaya ejecutándose ese hallazgo maravilloso que es esta originalísima política arancelaria de «no te invito a mi fiesta de ricachón picarón si no me lames el esfínter» [perdón], saldrá un PIB_Gasto_Q2 tan positivo y sano que deslumbrará al mundo y marcará una Novísima Era Dorada-Bruñida para 'hactibos & mercaos'; y
3.º Ahora le toca a la Fed que el dinero vuelva a ser abundante y barato.

También habría un segundo motivo, aparte de la anticipación de importaciones: estaría desinflamándose el detestable gasto público aunque todavía tan tímidamente que se notan los salutíferos efectos sobre el glorioso libre mercado. Gozosísimo segundo motivo, ¿no?

Lo que no nos dicen es cuáles son los componentes de la Renta que estarían bajando como consecuencia de estas externalidades iatrogénicas. ¡Pelillos a la mar! Pero, a poco que uno lo piense, solo cabe una posibilidad: estarían bajando las rentas inmobiliarias (plusvalías y alquileres). ¡No van a decir que bajan salarios o beneficios empresariales! De Pensiones ni hablamos porque en EE. UU. lo que hay está tan financierizado que no hay diferenciación con las rentas financieras, y estas dependen de la Fed, que no las baja ni a tiros, según estos premios Nobel de Economía reinventores del odio.

El próximo 7 de mayo habrá fumata blanca en la 'Eccles Building', de la 'Constitution Av.', en Washington D. C. La Fed bajará los tipos. Ya no tengo duda. ¡Qué remedio! Pero lo hará porque EE. UU. está ya en recesión, sea por importaciones, sea por purgaciones... de pollampiñón.

¡Son gilipollas! (creerse superior + no importar desgradar). ¿No se dan cuenta o qué? No tienen ni idea qué hacer. Pero todos sabemos qué está pasando, entre otros, por Fischer, Triffin y Mundell, y Tucídides, y no es nada bonito... para ellos.

Con el sorprendente anuncio del PIB negativo, la autoridad fiscal está condicionando (y enguachinando) el discurso alquitranero-plumero de la autoridad monetaria en su 'cum clave' del Dinero & Capital estadounidense el próximo 7-mayo.

Lo que sí se ve hoy es que, en efecto, la descomposición interna en EE. UU. de la que habla el 'Financial Times' es verdadera, cierta y tangible.

Quedémonos con el signo menos: – (Alt + 0150 con el teclado numérico). El signo que va delante de nuestro 60%.]

[asustadísimos]

[Apagón-2025.— Ahora viene el uso del temita. El problema pudiera convertirse en 'meloniano' (la empresa italiana estatal Endesa-Enel). Meloniano es lo mismo que decir contestatario-conservador o trumpiano o ayuser, incluso feijooer-rajoyer-pizarriano.

'Pro memoria': Grandes centrales del eje Aragón-Cataluña:
• Mequinenza, de Endesa
• Ésera (Eriste, Sesué y Seira), de Endesa
• Flix, de Endesa
• Sástago, de Endesa
¡Uy, uy, uy!]

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/1ae70f6c-6651-46e4-bc14-cfd6befc1474

US-Ukraine minerals deal hits last-minute hurdle

Agreement in doubt as Ukrainian first deputy prime minister Yulia Svyrydenko flies to Washington


Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House in February, shortly before their public falling out in the Oval Office © AP

The US and Ukraine hit last-minute hurdles on Wednesday as they were on the verge of signing a framework deal on exploiting Ukraine’s minerals.

The agreement they had been due to sign after marathon negotiations, which was seen by the Financial Times, said Washington and Kyiv would boost investment in Ukraine by developing its natural resources and creating a joint investment fund.

But problems arose as Ukraine’s first deputy prime minister, Yulia Svyrydenko flew to Washington on Wednesday to sign the deal, according three people familiar with the matter.

US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent’s team told Svyrydenko she should “be ready to sign all agreements, or go back home”, the people said.

The Americans want the Ukrainians to sign the not just the framework deal, but also a second detailed fund agreement that would complete the full minerals deal and a third technical document all together on Wednesday, said three people briefed on the situation.

A person familiar with the US’s thinking said on Wednesday that Ukraine had sought to revisit terms agreed at the weekend, and that Svyrydenko had been told not to fly to the US until the agreements were finalised.

The person said sticking points related to governance, a transparency mechanism and traceability of funds. But the deal could still be signed as early as Wednesday if Ukraine returned to the original terms, they said.

“President Trump has said that the time to get this done is now, and we are moving with all deliberate speed towards this end,” said a US Treasury spokesperson.

The Ukrainians said the US account was inaccurate, and that they could not sign all the documents on Wednesday because the fund agreement must be ratified by their country’s parliament.

One Ukrainian official said they worried the US “won’t be happy with anything”. “We stand ready to sign the framework deal today,” they said, but added that the chances were little better than “50-50”.

Amid the jockeying on Wednesday, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said: “As soon as all the final details are worked out, which I hope will happen within the next 24 hours, the agreement will be signed and we will take the first step.”

The framework deal does not explicitly offer US security guarantees, which Ukraine had sought, but it does call the agreement “an expression of a broader, long-term strategic alignment . . . and a tangible demonstration of the United States of America’s support for Ukraine’s security, prosperity, reconstruction and integration into global economic frameworks”.

The latest version of the minerals agreement was reached after Kyiv secured a significant concession from the Trump administration that only future military aid would count as the US contribution to the deal.

The development would mark a major step forward in the rocky relationship between Washington and Kyiv after a signing ceremony for an earlier version of the deal was cancelled in February following a public argument in the Oval Office between US President Donald Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

After that clash, Trump insisted that billions of dollars in past US military assistance be treated as loans to be repaid through the agreement, a proposal Zelenskyy rejected. Trump’s team of negotiators sent a new proposal stating that only past military aid to Kyiv would count as the US contribution to the deal.

On Sunday, Shmyhal said this line had been removed after Ukraine had clearly defined its “red lines”. He spoke from Washington following ​an “important meeting” with Bessent​ to hammer out the final details.

In the weeks since the Oval Office meeting that derailed talks — and after Kyiv worked with a US law firm to aid in negotiations — the talks became more “constructive”, said the Ukrainian officials.

Kyiv and Washington signed a memorandum of intent ​earlier this month, pledging to advance ​an agreement on ​the investment fund part of the deal covering Ukraine’s natural resources and energy assets.

The deal specifies that after it takes effect, any new US military assistance “including the donation of weapons systems, ammunition, technology or training” will be considered a capital contribution by the US.

Trump has expressed growing impatience over stalled ceasefire talks, and has expressed doubts about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s willingness to engage seriously on a peace framework he had hoped to broker within his first 100 days in office.

[senslev]

https://beamspot.substack.com/p/cronica-de-un-apagon-anunciado

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-creates-list-us-made-goods-exempt-125-tariffs-sources-say-2025-04-30/

China creates list of US-made goods exempt from 125% tariffs, sources say


A general view shows container terminal in Hong Kong, China, April 23, 2025. REUTERS/Tyrone Siu/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights

SHANGHAI, April 30 (Reuters) - China has created a list of U.S.-made products that would be exempted from its 125% tariffs and is quietly notifying companies about the policy, two people familiar with the matter said, as Beijing seeks to ease the impact of its trade war with Washington.

China has already granted tariff exemptions on select products including select pharmaceuticals, microchips and aircraft engines and was asking firms to identify critical goods they need levy-free,

Reuters reported on Friday. However, the existence of a so-called 'whitelist' had not been previously reported.

The quiet approach allows Beijing, which has repeatedly said it is willing to fight till the end unless the U.S. lifts its 145% tariffs, to maintain its public messaging while privately taking practical steps to provide concessions.

It was not immediately clear how many and which products have been included on the list, which authorities have not shared publicly, the two sources said, declining to be named as the information was not public.

Companies instead are being privately contacted by authorities and notified of the existence of a list of product classifications that would be exempted from the tariffs, according to one of the sources who works at a drug company selling U.S.-made medicines in China.

The company was contacted by the Shanghai Pudong government on Monday about the list, the source said, adding the firm had previously lobbied for tariff exemptions as it relies on U.S. technologies for some of its products.

"We still have many technologies we need from the U.S.," the person said.

Another source said some companies have been asked to privately contact authorities to inquire if their own imported products qualify for the exemption.

The list of exempted products also appears to be growing: China has waived tariffs on ethane imports from the U.S., Reuters reported on Tuesday.

Major ethane processors had already sought tariff waivers from Beijing because the U.S. is the only supplier.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he thought a trade deal with China was on the horizon. "But it's going to be a fair deal," he said.

China's commerce and customs ministries did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

GAUGING IMPACT

Two other sources said China is also surveying companies to gauge the impact of the tariff war.

In a recent meeting, authorities in Eastern China asked a foreign business lobby group to "communicate all critical situations caused by tariff tensions to evaluate specific cases," a person with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters.

The person declined to name the city where the authorities held the meeting as the gathering was not public.

Government officials in Xiamen, a city in southeastern Fujian province that is home to a major port and a manufacturing base for electronics, also sent out a survey on Sunday to companies to assess tariff impacts, said a source with direct knowledge of the matter.

The survey was sent to textiles firms and semiconductor companies and included questions on products they trade with the U.S., and the estimated impact of the U.S. and Chinese tariffs on their business, the source said.

[puede ser]

Como bien comentaban varios compañeros antes, el tema de la energía se está yendo de las manos a los ladrones que están esquilmando España desde hace siglos.

La pandemia, con sus fondos de recuperación, y la Guerra de Ucrania, con su teórica crisis energética, abrieron la veda para que cualquier proyecto en este ámbito se convirtiese en supuestamente prioritario e ineludible.

En Galicia hay cientos de parques éolicos proyectados. Se quiere aprovechar los excedentes para hacer hidrógeno verde para Maersk, metano... (Ya no hablemos del proyecto de una celulosa en el río que alimenta la Ría con el -supuestamente- mejor marisco del mundo).

El Tribunal Superior de Xustiza de Galicia está frenando algunos de estos parques por las miles de alegaciones de vecinos afectados. No es que corten cuatro arbolitos, es que se cargan petroglifos, castros, matan aves, hacen ruído que llega a las casas, arrasan bosques ya arrasados por codicias pasadas...

¿Qué hace el Tribunal Supremo?: dar "pa'lante" a todo lo que huela a "empresón"

https://enfoques.gal/economia/el-supremo-desautoriza-al-tsxg-y-permite-la-tramitacion-de-parques-eolicos-en-galicia/


El silencio de estos días por parte de toda la clase política es síntoma de que el apagón ha mostrado las costuras del sistema. Todos hemos olisqueado quien tiene el poder real. Quién tiene la mejor gallina de los huevos de oro española, la mejor porque no se ve pero produce tanto o más que la inmobiliaria o la política.

Por supuesto que podría ser un evento melonizante, para distraer a la socialdemocracia del poder de un país estratégico como España. En todo caso ya poco importa si eso es causa o mero aprovechamiento de las consecuencias: lo fundamental es que el Poder está comprobando que el nivel de adormecimiento de la población aún es plenamente adecuado. Estamos preparados para seguir parasitados por cinco o seis décadas sin problema.

Un saludo

[Derby]

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/article-when-exactly-did-canadian-housing-become-so-unaffordable-and-whos-to/

When exactly did Canadian housing become so unaffordable – and who’s to blame?


A home for sale in the Nutana neighbourhood in Saskatoon, in August, 2020.

Who or what is responsible for Canada’s unaffordable housing? Frequently cited factors include restrictive zoning, rapid population growth, permit delays, high development fees, slow wage growth and monetary policy.

To answer that question, it’s essential to ask: When was the tipping point that pushed Canada’s housing market into sustained unaffordability?

Housing affordability is commonly measured by the ratio of average home prices to disposable income. In the chart, we compare this ratio across Canada, the United States and the United Kingdom to see when Canada began to diverge from historical affordability norms.



In the U.S., home prices have generally ranged between six and nine times disposable income over the past 50 years. There were peaks at nine in 1980, 2006 and again in 2022, but each was followed by a correction. Canada’s home price-to-income ratio also remained in this range until 2007.

Home prices in Canada began rising steadily starting in 2001, but the true inflection point came around 2007 and 2008. Since then, the price-to-income ratio has consistently exceeded nine – reaching 10 in 2015, 12 in 2016 and climbing as high as 16 in 2022.

So what changed in 2007-08?

The most significant shift came in monetary policy. Following the global financial crisis, the Bank of Canada, mirroring the U.S. Federal Reserve, slashed interest rates to near zero in 2009 and kept them there for years. But unlike the U.S., Canada didn’t experience a housing crash.

While supply hasn’t been elastic enough to meet demand – mainly owing to restrictive zoning rules – the primary factor that shifted the supply-demand balance toward unaffordability appears to be demand driven by speculative investment.

Ultralow interest rates made borrowing inexpensive and encouraged investors to use mortgage leverage for large returns on relatively small down payments. This led not only to worsening affordability, but Canadians now also carry the highest levels of personal debt in the top 10 world economies.

Housing prices reflect a balance between supply and demand. But when monetary policy distorts that balance, the consequences can be long lasting. Canada’s extended period of ultralow rates may have helped avoid a financial crisis in 2008 but it also ignited a slow-burning affordability crisis that continues to unfold.

So while cutting rates in 2007-08 in Canada was the right medicine, the dose and the duration for which it was prescribed were not.