PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Primavera 2025

[Manu Oquendo]

Una semana tras el apagón total de Sánchez, el primero desde hace ochenta años, sigue sin funcionar mi teléfono fijo y tampoco lo hace el servicio de internet.
Hablar con Telefónica --presa de nuevos subcontratistas parasitarios sin infrastructuras ni operadores humanos-- es toda una proeza inútil porque los problemas persisten día tras día. Luego recuerdo que a Pallete lo echó Sánchez para poner a sus amiguetes nuevos en las Telecomunicaciones.
Al tiempo recuerdo que al frente de Red Eléctrica está una ilustre registradora de la propiedad también amiga de Sánchez y que "no dimite para no dar la sensación de que se siente culpable".

Dios nos proteja de las amistades de D. Pedro.

[Cadavre Exquis]

El informe de Hartnett del jueves pasado

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/cb3eb78e-8412-4af3-a29e-2200f9816ae5

Private equity’s best days are over, says Egyptian billionaire Nassef Sawiris

Buyout firms’ difficulties in securing exits and distributing cash to investors are leading to mounting frustration


Nassef Sawiris criticised private equity managers’ priorities: ‘They’re spending 90% of their time fundraising and 10% managing the businesses’ © Charlie Bibby/FT

The private equity industry is past its peak and faces a massive challenge in selling off trillions of dollars in assets, according to Egyptian industrialist and billionaire investor Nassef Sawiris.

Sawiris, who has invested parts of his fortune in funds at multiple buyout firms, said he and others who back private equity funds were frustrated with the lack of distributions in recent years. Firms have struggled to exit investments amid a post-pandemic slowdown in dealmaking and initial public offerings.

“Private equity has seen its best days . . . They can’t exit. Exits are so tough,” Sawiris told the Financial Times. 

“[Investors] are so frustrated. They are telling them [buyout firms]: ‘I haven’t seen any returns, you haven’t returned any cash to me in the last five, six years’.”

Sawiris took particular aim at the use of “continuation funds” to recycle capital — a tactic whereby private equity groups, instead of selling an asset to another owner or publicly listing it, move the asset into a new fund where they still maintain control.

“Continuation funds is the biggest scam ever because you say ‘I cannot sell the business, I’m going to lever it again’,” Sawiris said.

Continuation vehicles have grown increasingly popular in recent years, surging about 50 per cent to hit a record $76bn last year, according to a report from investment bank Houlihan Lokey.

The comments come as Sawiris has been overseeing the break-up of his Dutch-listed chemicals and fertiliser empire OCI.

The group in September agreed its fourth major disposal, bringing gross proceeds from its asset sales to $11.6bn from deals that were all struck with trade buyers rather than buyout shops. It has now sold off most of its assets, including its global methanol business, fertiliser holdings and a low-carbon ammonia project in Texas.

OCI has used these sales to return cash to shareholders. Including a payment to be made later this week, it has distributed $6.4bn in the past four years, with a further payout of up to $1bn expected after it closes the sale of its methanol business.

Sawiris said the company was “very lucky with the timing” of the disposals given the market turmoil that has disrupted dealmaking, the turn against investing in more sustainable assets, and a decline in gas prices.

Sawiris told the FT in an interview last year that OCI could be turned into a cash-shell company that pursues acquisitions in different industries.

He said he was approached about buying dozens of companies with the proceeds from his asset sales.

Many of them were owned by private equity groups hoping for an exit, Sawiris said, adding that he did not find a single one of them to be an attractive target for a deal.

“A year ago we looked at 70 different companies that would have wanted to be merged with OCI because they were levered, and get a listing and all that . . . all private equity that can’t get an exit,” he said. “We said ‘like, why are we are there to solve somebody else’s problem’?”

He also criticised private equity managers’ priorities, saying they were far more focused on raising capital for their investment vehicles than their portfolio companies’ operational performance.

“They’re spending 90 per cent of their time fundraising and 10 per cent managing the businesses,” he said. “They attend board meetings, have a board dinner and there’s a reason why they didn’t execute the plan.”

After decades of expansion, the private equity industry’s assets under management shrank last year for the first time since the consultancy Bain & Co began tracking industry assets in 2005. 

The industry’s assets in June 2024 were down just 2 per cent on a year earlier to $4.7tn; buyout groups have faced further challenges as the market volatility unleashed by US tariffs slowed dealmaking. 

Investment groups have run into trouble selling assets after buying them at high valuations in recent years, complicating their fundraising efforts.

Amid the broader challenges facing the private equity industry, Sawiris said the groups best positioned to succeed were those that had grown big enough as financial institutions such as Blackstone to challenge the major lending banks. 

“The only guys that have a future are the guys that found a niche to be a competitor to JPMorgan and Bank of America.”

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/be964ed1-4bf8-440c-a4fe-e7aa3993b52d

Bankers urge US companies to use reprieve in market swings to sell debt

US corporate debt markets have stabilised after volatility prompted by Trump’s ‘liberation day’ tariff announcement


BofA said April finished with about $104bn in new debt deals for US companies with investment grade credit ratings, at least $15bn below the bank’s expectation © Getty Images/iStockphoto

Bankers are urging US companies to tap debt markets now to fend off the risk that Donald Trump’s trade war sets off another wave of market tumult that makes borrowing more challenging.

US corporate lending markets have stabilised markedly since Trump triggered steep falls in asset prices with his April 2 announcement of big tariffs on trading partners.

Yields on speculative rated US bonds have eased to 7.84 per cent from a high of 8.65 per cent on April 7, according to Ice Data Services.

The reprieve in markets, prompted by Trump pausing most of his steep “reciprocal” tariffs and data showing the US economy fared better than some investors had feared in early 2025, has created a good opportunity for groups to raise funds, according to investors, bankers and analysts.

“Companies should take advantage of the current 90-day tariff pause and the resulting more favourable market conditions before another potential spike in volatility later in the year,” said Yuri Seliger, credit strategist at Bank of America.

A leveraged finance banker added that “the rest of the year might be a sloppy mess . . . I firmly believe now is a good time to go.”

Companies with speculative, or “junk”, credit ratings sold the fewest bonds last month since July 2023 — in the least active April since the 2008 financial crisis, according to data from JPMorgan.

New debt deals from highly rated companies also fell short of expectations, according to BofA.

BofA said April finished with about $104bn in new debt deals for US companies with investment grade credit ratings, at least $15bn below the bank’s expectation of $120bn to $130bn. May should mark a return to normal, with $130bn to $150bn in projected supply, the bank said.

The premiums paid by issuers to investors for taking on risk relative to government debt, known as “spreads,” have retreated substantially, but not entirely, from early April peaks, after hovering near historically low levels early in the year.

Although the investment-grade bond market was more resilient last month than the marketplace for riskier debt, some bankers said higher-rated companies that need to refinance debt should aim to do so soon.

“We are advising our clients to go now, because markets are very constructive,” said a second banker, who works with companies that have investment-grade credit ratings.



Will Smith, director of US high-yield at AllianceBernstein, said it would make sense for companies to take advantage of current debt capital markets conditions, “unless they have a lot of conviction that things are going to improve”.

“In our view, companies are supposed to take capital when it’s available for them, not when they absolutely need it,” Smith said.

An influx of new corporate debt in early May would hit markets right as outflows from US funds have started to slow from historic levels.

Investors pulled a record $15bn from corporate debt-focused exchange traded funds in April, selling out of funds that highly rated debt, junk bonds and leveraged loans at nearly equivalent levels, according to State Street Global Advisors.

Flows in late April showed signs of reversing and turning positive again, indicating that investors may now be more open to take on risk. But even though May is generally expected to be calmer, market participants are still bracing for surges in uncertainty as time ticks on towards the end of Trump’s 90-day pause in early July.

“It’s hard to call it stability,” said Masaya Okoshi, a fixed-income trader at Wellington Management. “It’s like the eye of a storm.”

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/d69ac831-4f05-4090-beed-eb69ac8b3c61

Why the EU beats Trump at the art of the deal

The mayhem of Mar-a-Lago is less effective than the boredom of Brussels


© James Ferguson

(...)The European Commission is determined not to allow all its negotiating energy to be sucked up by a damage-limitation exercise with the US. One consequence of Trump’s global tariff war is that there is a significant increase in the countries that want to negotiate trade deals with the EU.

Piyush Goyal, the Indian trade minister, was in Brussels last week. A new accord is likely to be signed between the UK and the EU later this month — clearing away some of the most difficult issues left behind by Brexit. The United Arab Emirates opened free trade negotiations with the EU a few weeks ago. Trade talks with Australia, long stalled, have restarted. A deal with Latin America’s Mercosur bloc has already been agreed and awaits ratification. China is also keen to warm up trade relations with Brussels — although the Europeans will proceed cautiously there.

The countries that are beating a path to Brussels will find the EU slow moving and bureaucratic. A deal that Trump would aim to get over the line in weeks will take years to complete with the EU. On the other hand, as one Australian trade negotiator puts it: “The good thing about the EU is that if you do eventually do a deal with them, you know they’ll stick to it.”

The EU has already agreed roughly twice as many free trade agreements as the US and is well placed to conclude more. The Brussels art of the deal has its own peculiarities and frustrations. But it is considerably more serious and durable than the Trump version.

[Cadavre Exquis]

La Nacion · 2025.05.02 · Arturo Pérez-Reverte: “Argentina es Europa, pero perdió su influencia moral y se vulgarizó”

Mariana Arias		Bueno, Arturo Pérez Reverte, bienvenido. Un académico español, escritor, un hombre que tiene 30 años de trayectoria en en las letras, que fue cronista de guerra. Ya todos te conocemos y te queremos, así que no hay mucha presentación. Bienvenido.
Arturo Pérez Reverte		Gracias. Hemos estado muchas veces juntos tú y yo, así que bueno, me encanta verte otra vez aquí.
Mariana Arias		Sí, un placer, un placer. Bienvenido a La Nación. ¿Cuál es el momento personal que vive hoy Arturo Pérez Reverte en este mundo de hoy?
Arturo Pérez Reverte		Momento de curiosidad expectante. Es muy es muy interesante asistir al final de una época. Es muy interesante, es un privilegio haber vivido lo suficiente. Haré 74 este año. He vivido un mundo que ahora ya va desapareciendo y viene otro —mejor o peor, viene otro—, pero tener la edad y la serenidad suficiente y lucidez para verlo, cómo se desmorona, cómo se deshace, cómo llega lo nuevo, cómo cambian las cosas, cómo valores viejos ya no valen, cómo cosas nuevas se imponen. Es es un espectáculo fascinante que la vida me ha me ha deparado, así que tengo ese privilegio. Soy un testigo privilegiado de un mundo que se desvanece.
Mariana Arias		Mmm, qué triste ¿no?, me me da un poco de...
Arturo Pérez Reverte		No, no es triste.
Mariana Arias		¿No es triste?
Arturo Pérez Reverte		No, es la historia, es la vida. O sea, los ciclos pasan, los mundos, las personas, las vidas, los imperios, las civilizaciones desaparecen y vienen otras. Pero bueno, cuando estás en medio de una el momento de auge, pues no eres consciente de la fragilidad. Pero cuando estás en la fase final, en el ocaso —que a veces tardan siglos, no es de un año para otro—, es ver los síntomas. Cuándo has leído historia —yo he leído mucha historia, soy una gran lector de historia, hoy la mitad de los libros de mi biblioteca son libros de historia—. Leo clásicos griegos y latinos... pero bueno, poder identificar los síntomas, ver las cosas cómo van ocurriendo, como ocurrieron ya en el pasado, ser consciente de que todo eso está pasando es es muy interesante. Es una última experiencia que no esperaba y que la vida me ha reservado y estoy muy contento con ella.
Mariana Arias		¿De qué nos despedimos?
Arturo Pérez Reverte		De una manera de entender el mundo y la vida y todas las relaciones humanas, la educación, la cultura, todo. Nos despedimos de un mundo —mis abuelos nacieron en el siglo XIX, mis dos abuelos, yo nací en año 51—, entonces claro, un mundo que tenía cosas buenas y cosas malas. Cosas muy buenas y cosas muy malas. Y ese mundo, con sus errores y sus aciertos se va desvaneciendo poco a poco. Todavía suena la orquesta, aún quedas serpentinas por el suelo, aún hay una pareja bailando allí al fondo, ¿sabes? todavía ese final de fiesta. Y en la puerta están los los desfavorecidos, los que no bailaron en la fiesta, esperando su turno para entrar a ver si el nuevo mundo les da la oportunidad de bailar también.  Entonces, bueno, ver eso con la tranquilidad de no tener de tener la vida resuelta en el sentido profesional, emocional, familiar, sentimental... es magnífico, magnífico.
Mariana Arias		[...]
Arturo Pérez Reverte		[...]

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

No sube el oro, baja el dólar.

https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1919395087328383036

Saludos.