PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Primavera 2025

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/a41cc243-58da-44a0-89e9-ec5a65514981

China’s property market recovery stalls as falling prices hit sentiment

Data sets back hopes that struggling market could stabilise this year


Residential buildings under construction in Nanjing, in China’s Jiangsu province. Real estate investment was down 10.7% in the first five months of 2025 © STR/AFP/Getty Images

Just days after Premier Li Qiang called for “greater efforts” to halt a decline in China’s housing market, fresh data on Monday laid out why the country’s top leadership still has such cause for concern.

New home prices across 70 Chinese cities fell 0.2 per cent in May from the previous month, while those of second-hand homes declined 0.5 per cent, according to a Financial Times analysis — the fastest pace of decline in seven and eight months respectively.

Real estate investment was also down 10.7 per cent in the first five months of 2025, the data showed.

Years after Chinese home prices started to fall following a series of developer implosions, the prospect of a stabilisation remains in doubt, piling pressure on policymakers as they contend with a weaker economic backdrop.

“A nationwide turnaround looks a distance away,” said Louise Loo, lead economist at Oxford Economics.

Sentiment was buoyed earlier this year by data showing a moderation in falls, and month-on-month growth in prices in tier 1 cities, in a period after Beijing unleashed a series of supportive measures in September.

But any sense of improvement stalled in May, despite a trade war truce with the US.

“Even the primary prices started to see some weakness,” said Karl Choi, head of Greater China real estate research at Bank of America, of the May figures. “That was a bit of a difference from the last few months, when primary prices were relatively stable.”

The setback comes despite numerous government efforts to support the market, including mortgage rate cuts, funds to complete unfinished residential projects and plans to convert unused homes into social housing.

Housing prices are typically measured through sales of new homes, reflecting China’s rapid pace of urbanisation. But the secondary home market was “a more definitive gauge of sentiment, given looser price controls”, said Loo, who noted that second-hand prices were flat or rose in just three of 70 cities tracked by the National Bureau of Statistics in May.

The property market was “still searching for a bottom”, said Jian Chang, chief China economist at Barclays, pointing to recent declines in secondary market prices in big cities following “some stabilisation in March”.

Top cities, where housing is still expensive, have scrapped purchase restrictions to try to restore confidence, with the latest announcement coming from Guangzhou last week. Monthly price changes for new homes in tier-one cities turned negative in May for the first time this year, and fell sharply for second-hand homes.

Other indicators paint a less gloomy picture. Prices are falling less steeply on a year-to-year basis, with new home prices declining 4.1 per cent in May compared with more than 6 per cent in October.
Michelle Kwok, head of Asia real estate research at HSBC, suggested that “things have already started to turn” from the depths of the now four-year crisis. “Big cities are leading the recovery,” she said.

Most economists had not anticipated a return to rising prices for some time, even before the added setback of a full-blown trade war with the US.

“Stabilisation, much less recovery, is not expected in 2025,” said Yuhan Zhang, principal economist at the Conference Board’s China Center. He added that “oversupply remains a serious challenge”, though he noted that inventory levels were expected to rise less quickly than last year.

John Lam, property analyst at UBS, said uncertainty around tariffs had delayed a recovery in tier-one cities in April but stabilisation might still be possible in the fourth quarter. Yi Wang, a Goldman Sachs property analyst, said she did not expect spot prices in the primary or secondary markets to stabilise until the second half of next year.

Further afield, the nationwide picture poses an acute challenge to policymakers. Goldman Sachs on Monday forecast that urban demand for new properties would remain below 5mn units per year in the coming years, down from a peak of 20mn in 2017.

Han Jun, who runs a trade advisory business in the textile manufacturing capital of Keqiao in coastal Zhejiang province, said last month that local housing prices had fallen about one-third from their peak. “They keep going down, and it doesn’t look like it’s turning around,” he said.

Li, in comments that were read out on state broadcaster CCTV, called on policymakers to “focus on the long term”.

But if there are still doubts over China’s richest cities, the recovery remains even more uncertain outside of them.

“We go as far as saying, just write off the lower tier,” said Kwok at HSBC. “We just have to accept that it’s not going to be a ‘rising tide lifts all boats’ coming out of this crisis.”

[Derby]

https://www.baha.com/ECBs-Panetta-downplays-digital-euro-liquidity-risks/news/details/64313450

ECB's Panetta downplays digital euro liquidity risks


EPA/FRANK RUMPENHORST

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Fabio Panetta stated on Wednesday that the digital euro will be designed to eliminate concerns about draining liquidity from banks.

"Even if the digital euro were to reduce liquidity in banks and convert bank deposits into central bank liabilities, the level of liquidity in the system is determined by the European Central Bank. The ECB can offset any reduction in liquidity," Panetta told students at the annual Young Factor conference in Milan.

Moreover, he defended the initiative by asserting that a digital euro is necessary due to the digitalization of the economy, which threatens to marginalize the role of central bank money.

[Derby]

https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-macro-1c6c2540-4ba2-11f0-ae96-f9e2f8fde89b.html

1 big thing: Exclusive — CEO sentiment at five-year low



Economic sentiment among America's top CEOs plunged to the lowest level since 2020, according to a new survey by the Business Roundtable, first seen by Axios.

Why it matters: Chief executives have not been this sour on the economy since the once-in-a-century pandemic, with significant downgrading expectations for hiring, investment and sales growth.

The Business Roundtable's CEO Economic Outlook Index fell by 15 points in the second quarter to 69, a drop that brings the index well below its historical average of 83.

The previous survey was conducted in March before President Trump's "Liberation Day" announcing large-scale tariffs. Since then, the trade war has been de-escalated and the stock market recovered, yet CEOs still feel worse about the economy.

Between the lines: The index is above the level that suggests an economic recession is underway. But the survey is troubling for what it signals about the labor market that has so far been resilient, helping buffer the broader economy.

For months, it's been a "no hire, no fire" labor market with sluggish hiring rates and low layoffs.
By the numbers: Business Roundtable's survey shows risks that this period might be coming to an end.

The employment subindex plummeted for the second straight quarter — this time, by almost 19 points, with more than 40% of CEOs expecting to shrink their workforces in the next six months.

That is up from the roughly 30% who envisioned cutting payrolls in Q1. This time last year, just over 20% planned to decrease employment.

It's difficult to know how much of that slump is related to softer economic projections as opposed to, say, AI-related workforce adjustments.

A subindex for capital expenditures — investment in new buildings, equipment, technology and more — fell roughly 15 points, with fewer executives planning to increase spending.

That came alongside a more than 10-point drop in sales expectations, with a smaller cohort of CEOs expecting higher revenues.

What they're saying: "Driving this quarter's decline in the Index is broad-based uncertainty, arising substantially from an unpredictable trade policy environment," Joshua Bolten, the Business Roundtable's CEO, said in a release seen by Axios.

"Extending and enhancing tax reform is critical, but it is not sufficient. American businesses also need the Administration rapidly to secure deals with our trading partners that open markets, remove harmful tariffs and provide certainty for investment," Bolten said.

The group surveyed 169 of its members in the first two weeks of June, when the U.S.-China trade truce was at risk of breaking down before top Trump officials met with their Chinese counterparts.

Flashback: CEOs had economic euphoria in the early years of Trump's first term, largely on the back of tax cut expectations.

In the comparable period in 2017, the CEO Economic Outlook Index hit a multiyear high. One year later, it was coming off the highest level ever.

The bottom line: That's no longer the case. Uncertainty about trade and other policies is weighing on the CEO class, which has generally been hesitant to publicly criticize the Trump White House — and trumping any excitement about the prospect of extended tax cuts.

"The quarter's survey results signal that Business Roundtable CEOs are approaching the next six months with caution," Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins, who chairs the group, said in a release.
Robbins said the results "underscore the urgent need for Congress to pass pro-growth tax legislation that preserves our globally competitive tax system."

2. New housing market warning


Brauer/Bloomberg via Getty Images

A longtime slump in the new housing sector is getting worse, according to indicators released in the last 24 hours.

Why it matters: The broader economy held up during a "rolling recession" that hit the housing industry in recent years. That might not be the case this time if other sectors slow concurrently.

Catch up quick: Builders broke ground on home construction in May at the slowest pace in five years.

The issuance of building permits, an indicator of the appetite to build homes, also hit a five-year low.

Sentiment among homebuilders dropped to the lowest level since 2022 in June.

Lennar, one of the nation's biggest homebuilders, reported weaker-than-expected quarterly earnings, citing a soft housing market.

State of play: Now the sector faces new Trump-era factors, including tariffs and deportations, that are holding back construction and limiting supply.

Plus, in certain parts of the country, there is too much inventory compared to demand.

Driving the news: Housing starts fell almost 10% last month to an annualized pace of 1.3 million, well below the rate that economists expected, the Commerce Department said this morning.

Building permits also came in worse than expected, particularly for single-family homes. They dropped to an annualized rate of 898,000, nearly 3% below April.

What they're saying: The National Association of Home Builders said sentiment among builders has only been lower than its June level twice since 2012.

"Buyers are increasingly moving to the sidelines due to elevated mortgage rates and tariff and economic uncertainty," said Buddy Hughes, a North Carolina-based developer who chairs the NAHB, said in a statement yesterday.

The big picture: Softer demand is being met by higher building costs, including for labor and materials.

The industry is heavily reliant on immigrant workers, who are being targeted for deportations by the Trump administration.

Meanwhile, tariffs on steel and aluminum have doubled to 50%, except for U.K. imports of the materials. The Trump administration is considering higher tariffs on wood materials, including lumber.

"New construction has slowed as builders have pulled back on production," Lennar co-CEO Stuart Miller said on an earnings call yesterday.

Miller said "labor and material costs — lumber is a particular headache — are generally increasing."

[Cadavre Exquis]

The Biggest Companies Across America Are Cutting Their Workforces
Posted by msmash on Wednesday June 18, 2025 @10:00AM from the deeper-cuts dept.

U.S. public companies have cut their white-collar workforces by 3.5% over the past three years, marking a fundamental shift in corporate philosophy that views fewer employees as a path to faster growth. One in five S&P 500 companies now employ fewer people than they did a decade ago, according to employment data-provider Live Data Technologies.

The reductions extend beyond typical cost-cutting measures and coincide with record corporate profits at the end of last year. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy told employees Tuesday that AI will eliminate certain jobs in coming years, while Procter & Gamble announced plans to cut 7,000 positions to create "broader roles and smaller teams."

Bank of America reduced its workforce from 285,000 in 2010 to 213,000 today while revenues climbed 18% over the past decade. Managers have faced particularly steep cuts, with their ranks falling 6.1% between May 2022 and May 2025. Companies are flattening organizational structures and pushing remaining employees to handle larger workloads as executives track revenue per employee more closely.

Saludos.

[asustadísimos]

[He modificado el comentario...
https://www.transicionestructural.net/index.php?topic=2625.msg244464#msg244464
... para elevarlo a 'Ficha' y añadir lo que faltaba. Buena parte del problema que tenemos los prosistema se debe al peso de los intereses de esta casta petarda.]

[AbiertoPorDemolicion]

Que alguien me explique la diferencia entre esto:

https://www.infobae.com/espana/2025/06/16/cataluna-repartira-500-millones-de-euros-entre-los-jovenes-que-no-tengan-dinero-para-pagar-la-entrada-de-su-primer-piso/?outputType=amp-type


Y las cajitas de ahorros.

Es lo mismo, pero hay una pequeña gran diferencia. Sale mucho más barato que sea el reyezuelo de taifa el que firme directamente la trasferencia de los 500 millones de euros a los bolsillos de los propietarios, que hacerlo a través de las cajas de ahorros. El resultado final va a ser el mismo,  pero por lo menos no tenemos que pagar sueldos suizos a toda esa constelacion de golfos, vividores y  lameculos que dirigian las cajas de ahorro, que ninguno valía ni para tomar por c., pero que habia que colocarles en algún sitio porque llevaban años medrando en el partido, y en politica, todos terminan siendo recompensados.

Y total, para ser presidente de una caja de ahorros no hacía falta saber de finanzas,  cualquiera podia valer. ¿se acuerdan de aquel presidente de caja de ahorro manchega que dijo, con sus santos cohones, que no tenía ni p. idea de lo que firmaba, y que su función en la caja era ser el animador social? Pues eso eran las cajas de ahorros.

Todos sabemos que los niñitos que sean agraciados con la ayudita para la compra, van a quebrar. Porque si en su treinta y tantos años de vida no han sido capaces de juntar 40.000 euros para pagar la entrada de la hipoteca, los  siguientes treinta y tantos años que les queda de vida laboral ni de coña van a juntar los 160.000 euros restantes.  Pero da igual, para cuando eso llegue, el reyezuelo de taifa estará  plantando patatas en su mansion de lanzarote y los que les vendieron los pisos estarán viendo el espectaculo mientras se comen su racion de langostinos¿Alguien se acuerda de Rajoy o Zapatero? Pues de los que están ahora, igual.


ya para terminar, por si alguien tiene dudas de lo que se pueden hacer con 500 millones de euros, tan solo un apunte.

¿conocen PLD Space? Una empresa española, formada por capital humano español, especializada en lanzaderas espaciales y misiles balisticos, que está alineada con la estrategia de inversión de la UE y que se ha posicionado entre las empresas más punteras de su sector, un sector donde europa se la juega. Pues  "Solo" han necesitado 160 millones de euros para llegar hasta donde ha llegado.

Con los 500 millones de euros que la taifa catalana va a meter en los bolsillos de sus propietarios, se podrian levantar 3 PLD Space.


Tan solo por poner un ejemplo...

Todos en europa buscando dinero  debajo de las piedras para reconstruir la industria y que europa no termine siendo el patio trasero de los asiáticos, y mientras los reyezuelos de taifas y sus votantes repartiendose el dinero publico entre ellos.

PLD Space obtiene un préstamo de Cofides de 11 millones y alcanza los 170 millones en financiación para su aventura espacial

https://cincodias.elpais.com/companias/2024-12-02/pld-space-obtiene-un-prestamo-de-cofides-de-11-millones-y-alcanza-los-170-millones-en-financiacion-para-su-aventura-espacial.html

[asustadísimos]

[El Ladrillo es eugenesia al revés:
• fomento de la reproducción de los menos aptos
• esterilización de los más aptos

Ahora toca exterminar arios (Irán significa 'tierra de los arios').]

[Asdrúbal el Bello]

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/e82bb1c0-c0dc-4677-98d0-fba8cd678dba

Federal Reserve cuts outlook for US economy but holds interest rates steady

Central bank officials split amid concerns over higher inflation from tariffs


Central bank projections showed the US economic growth would grow 1.4% for 2025, weaker than last year © Reuters

The Federal Reserve cut its outlook for the US economy on Wednesday, with policymakers split on whether they would be able to reduce interest rates at all this year as Donald Trump’s tariffs bring risks of higher inflation.

The Fed left borrowing costs on hold for the fourth meeting in a row, with seven rate-setters saying they now expected the federal funds target range to remain at 4.25-4.5 per cent for the duration of 2025.

In March, just four officials expected no rate cuts this year. Eight officials still think they will cut interest rates by a quarter point twice this year, compared with nine in March.

Fresh projections showed growth in the world’s largest economy would come in at 1.4 per cent for 2025 — substantially weaker than last year, with unemployment rising from its current level of 4.2 per cent to 4.5 per cent and personal consumption expenditures inflation increasing from an April figure of 2.1 per cent to 3 per cent.

In March, the median expectation among US rate-setters was for the economy to expand by 1.7 per cent, unemployment to rise to 4.4 per cent and personal consumption expenditures inflation to hit 2.7 per cent.

Treasury yields dropped and US stocks jumped following the decision. The two-year yield, with moves with interest rate expectations, fell to session lows.

Fed officials have indicated that President Trump’s tariffs raise the risk of stagflation, pushing up inflation rising and slowing economic growth. Two officials are now saying interest rates will fall just once, compared with four ahead of Trump’s “liberation day” announcements. Two officials are still anticipating three quarter-point cuts.

Todavía no está desarrollada la siguiente noticia en FT.

[Flipback]

@elmalo
Un bien básico, cuyo precio supone un coste para la economía, no puede ser inasequible ni convertirse en un instrumento de acumulación de capital sin que se produzcan graves desequilibrios en esa economía. Tarde o temprano ese bien básico volverá a su precio de equilibrio. Cuanto más tarde, mayor será la destrucción económica y social. Esta es la verdad, por muchos castillos en el aire que se quieran ver y por mucho que estiren el chicle.

Las consecuencias de la carestía en las últimas décadas de este bien básico ya las estamos sintiendo y son demoledoras, por mucho que nos diga el tal Gonzalo Bernardos que la natalidad es baja porque nos lo gastamos en Netflix.

La inmigración descontrolada es una de esas consecuencias: España para no quebrar necesita crecimiento del PIB. Que crezca el PIB mientras decrece la población no es viable. Es así de simple: hacen falta inmigrantes por culpa de lo cara que ha sido la vivienda estas últimas décadas. Como era de esperar, los inmigrantes tampoco están teniendo suficientes hijos, lo que nos aboca a traer cada vez mas inmigrantes en las próximas décadas. No sabemos ni de dónde van a ser los que vengan dentro de 15 años. Podrían no ser ya sudamericanos, si las cosas van mejor allí o si tienen otros sitios donde ir. Así de surrealista es todo. Por no saber, no sabemos ni cual va a ser la composición étnica de España en las próximas décadas.

Lo que quiero decir es que es muy evidente que este modelo hace aguas por todos los lados y tiene un final cierto. Todos los países occidentales están igual. Creo que pocos aquí pensábamos que fuera a durar tanto todo esto ni que se fuera a llegar tan lejos, exponiendo al sistema capitalista a un riesgo de derrumbe cada vez mayor y exponiendo a los países a una gran inestabilidad política y social, con riesgo creciente de conflictos internos y externos.

Cabe preguntarse por qué no pararon todo esto hacia 2001- 2002, cuando la deuda no era tan elefantiásica. Es muy probable que no pudieran pararlo, ¿o es que no ha sido el endeudamiento de origen inmobiliario un pilar fundamental del esquema de la globalización/expansión capitalista hacia China? ¿y no ha sido esta globalización/expansión a China un plan estratégico de Estados Unidos? Corríjanme si me equivoco. Yo creo que simplemente no pudieron sustituir a tiempo el modelo a falta de madurez del proceso globalizador. Había que seguir endeudándose mas de lo debido como mal menor. Y ahora a partir 2025, ¿podrá el capitalismo superar este modelo o se desintegrará? Quizá soy muy optimista pero soy de los que piensa que se superará el modelo y habrá continuidad capitalista.

Es fácil pensar que los locos somos nosotros y es difícil mantener la cordura nadando a contracorriente durante tantos años. Pero atengámonos a los datos objetivos, que son muchos y muy contundentes. Echen un vistazo a las ofertas de trabajo en España y en otros países, ¿acaso no están ya el 90% de los salarios por debajo del nivel de subsistencia? Ejemplo:  alquiler de 1 piso de 1 habitación en cualquier ciudad grande de Europa multiplicado por 3 (ya que el máximo gasto en alquiler recomendado es 1/3 del salario). Hemos llegado al absurdo... y es insostenible. El futuro no puede ser eso.

[Derby]

https://www.statista.com/chart/34607/most-common-reason-for-not-having-children/