Re:PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Otoño 2025

[berberecho]

El día en que sea "oficial" que China es el nuevo hegemón del mundo, ya lo llevará siendo 10 o 15 años.

Lo mismo que cuando sea "oficial" en España que el pisito está en caída.

[pollo]

El día en que sea "oficial" que China es el nuevo hegemón del mundo, ya lo llevará siendo 10 o 15 años.

Lo mismo que cuando sea "oficial" en España que el pisito está en caída.

Y lo es por causa única y exclusiva de la imbecilidad y codicia de Occidente. Se lo han puesto en bandeja.

[Benzino Napaloni]

El día en que sea "oficial" que China es el nuevo hegemón del mundo, ya lo llevará siendo 10 o 15 años.

Lo mismo que cuando sea "oficial" en España que el pisito está en caída.

Y lo es por causa única y exclusiva de la imbecilidad y codicia de Occidente. Se lo han puesto en bandeja.

Ya es oficial. Era un secreto a voces pero la noticia de que los directivos de casas de coches volvieron de China con las orejas gachas lo podemos tomar como la "señal".

China ya no se limita a ser el taller que aprieta tuercas. Nos han superado y ya nos estamos enterando. Ahora mismo esos directivos están en shock y saben que China puede aplastar las casas de coches europeas. Si no ya mismo, en poco tiempo.

[tomasjos]

La toma de conciencia de la imposibilidad de pagar esos precios sale en Semana

La preocupación por el acceso a la vivienda se dispara: "Con un sueldo de 1.200 euros, alquilar por 1.500 es inalcanzable" https://share.google/pEg3SL5ttcFf5vRm2

[asustadísimos]

EFECTO MANZANA PODRIDA.—

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/ywjCkN0X9Y0
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/-BUN-kkfXNQ

Ahora viene «Es un robo». Pero no es un robo, ¡es una estafa!; es decir, es un 'robo', sí, pero con una retórica engañosa; y es una estafa contra el Capital, por los activos ficticios, el sobrendeudamiento y la imposición privada sobre las nóminas.

Forma parte del gran embuste en que se ha convertido el popularcapitalismo que abusar de la extracción de rentas inmobiliarias es desposeer de riqueza a los pobres. ¿Cuándo han tenido riqueza los pobres?

Las multas pecuniarias a los usureros no se legitiman 'a la Robin Hood', sino porque situando sus mordidas por encima de cierto umbral de tus rentras salariales o empresariales te invitan a que tú estafes también en tu entorno.

[senslev]

Si no se para la estafa y se rebobina, harán lo mismo con todo, persona humana incluida.

[tomasjos]

EFECTO MANZANA PODRIDA.—

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/ywjCkN0X9Y0
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/-BUN-kkfXNQ

Ahora viene «Es un robo». Pero no es un robo, ¡es una estafa!; es decir, es un 'robo', sí, pero con una retórica engañosa; y es una estafa contra el Capital, por los activos ficticios, el sobrendeudamiento y la imposición privada sobre las nóminas.

Forma parte del gran embuste en que se ha convertido el popularcapitalismo que abusar de la extracción de rentas inmobiliarias es desposeer de riqueza a los pobres. ¿Cuándo han tenido riqueza los pobres?

Las multas pecuniarias a los usureros no se legitiman 'a la Robin Hood', sino porque situando sus mordidas por encima de cierto umbral de tus rentras salariales o empresariales te invitan a que tú estafes también en tu entorno.

Asustadísimos, son los de Podemos. No se les puede pedir más. Al menos salen del rollo Anos, Fetos y Fosas, que no es poco, y se suben a la corriente dominante

[newclo]

Buenos días

Espero que ya tengan preparados los planes para el fin de semana.. hay que disfrutar mientras podamos

Ahora que Asustadísimos ha vuelto , y con ganas, vuelvo a dejar aquí mi encuesta por si tiene a bien responderla; aunque como es anónima igual lo ha hecho y no puedo saberlo.... en tal caso espero que entienda este mensaje como una invitación a responder y explayarse en plazos y porcentajes; incluso me vale si los adapta a distintos escenarios y sus probabilidades.

https://www.transicionestructural.net/index.php?topic=2632.0

Aprovecho para agradecerles a los Asustadismos y a todos ustedes sus opiniones sobre el Peak-oil / Pico de Hubbert

Sean felices y traten de hacer felices a todos a su alrededor. En caso de enfrentamientos sean justos y firmes, pero con cariño.

[asustadísimos]

SIEMPRE QUE SALE EL TEMITA DE LA PRODUCTIVIDAD ES PORQUE VIENE UN 'CRASH'.—

Cuando la estafa chuta, los ganchos dan patadas para adelante.

Solo sacan el temita de la productividad cuando sienten que viene el crash.

Venda antes de la herida, se llama.

«La culpa de lo que viene la tienes tú, vago de siete suelas».

Confunden aposta 'productividad del trabajo' con 'productividad total de los factores'. Digo aposta porque en la Academia se sabe desde hace décadas que la productividad en España es baja por muchas causas. Es multifactorial. Incluso hay quien dice que la culpa es del horario de comidas o que no hace suficiente frío.

Pero el argumento tumbativo contra esta parte del Gran Embuste Popularcapitalista es que la productividad es indivisible. Sin señora de la limpieza no hay oficina.

A este engaño con la productividad hay que contestar, pues, primero, con que «me estás avisando de que viene el crash»; y, segundo, dar en los morros con que la causa de la causa de que, en España, la productividad sea baja la tiene el parásito, la tenia o solitaria, el platelminto, el puto artefacto de los cojones:

El platelminto hace que todos los esfuerzos por mejorar se pierdan como agua en un cesto.

¿Para qué trabajar o emprender si todo se lo va a llevar el rentista inmobiliario, ya vía alquiler, ya vía plusvalía?

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1979196802021658884

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1978966183698116923

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1978982541563416724

Saludos.

[valensianet]

Que un analista supuestamente tan fino como Kobeissi salga con esto, tiene pinta de intento de asustar incautos… ya no quedan activos refugio, todo sube, el cash no vale nada, gastad (o “himbertid”) cuanto antes o lo perderéis…

Espero que todo pete pronto. Por el bien de lo que viene después.

https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1978982541563416724

Saludos.

[Derby]

Es lo que está pasando.

https://www.ft.com/content/b4e3ddad-f9ba-4649-8b60-faf6366a22e0

Why are UK homeowners so delusional about the value of their property?

The belief that house prices inexorably appreciate over time is etched deep into the British psyche — but it’s sabotaging sales


Why are so many sellers getting the price wrong? © FT montage / Alamy / Shutterstock

Alex MacCormick’s two-bedroom flat in a leafy enclave of East Dulwich in London has been a much-loved first home for her young family and three rescue pets. But it was time for the next chapter — to sell up and move to Winchester. In June, her agent persuaded her to list the property for £625,000. Three months later, with just a handful of viewings and no offers, she switched agents and dropped the price by £50,000. She’s anxious that the long period on the market — and the price cut — has made the home less appealing to buyers. “I just wish we’d had that awkward conversation to establish a realistic valuation at the beginning,” she says.

This year, the number of homes that were overpriced on initial listing — forcing a reduction — grew by 44 per cent in London, reaching their highest level since LonRes started collecting data in 2000. Savills research shows prime prices are down 4 per cent in central London and 3 per cent in regional markets. Nationwide, more homes have sold for less than they were bought for than at any time since 2018, according to Hamptons.

Not for a decade has it become so important to get the listing price right. Homes with price cuts now take 64 days longer to sell than those without them, the biggest gap since 2015. “And homes with a price cut are disproportionately the homes which don’t go on to sell,” says Hamptons lead analyst David Fell; transactions in the capital fell by one-fifth in the three months to September compared with one year earlier, according to LonRes. But professional valuers say that calculating an accurate price is easier than it has been since 2008. So why are so many homeowners still listing their homes for more than they are worth — or at least more than buyers are willing to pay?

Answering that question means grappling with a deep conviction that a home is something whose value never falls. The steady, inexorable appreciation of most people’s most valuable asset is a principle etched deep into the British psyche — a belief even wired into how the mind works. But that belief is sabotaging home sales. A sharp, fast reset is needed.


Many homes are now worth less than they were bought for: prime central London prices have fallen 22 per cent since 2014, according to Savills © Simon Turner/Alamy

The first prompt to recalibrate comes from buyer numbers. In August there were four new buyers for every new home on the market; in November 2021, at the peak of the race for space, there were 10, according to Propertymark, the estate agent industry body. It’s hard to overstate buyers’ current upper hand.

“Buyers are few and far between; when a new property comes up, all the best ones tend to visit first,” says Philip Harvey of London buying agent Property Vision. “One way to give a buyer confidence is to have another buyer, and the only way to do that is to price it correctly the first time.”

It’s hard to resist the old logic that a higher price might lead to more compelling opening offers — even if lower than the asking price. But today, starting too high can mean ending up with no offers at all. Some people may be up for the haggle, “but some people just don’t enjoy that kind of confrontation,” says Harvey’s colleague Roarie Scarisbrick.

With no offers, a price cut is the next step, but that can bring problems. “Buyers are less willing to reconsider homes after a price cut than at any time for years,” says William Tellwright, a selling agent. Only the steepest discounts will restore their interest, adds Joanna Cocking, head of private office and prime homes at Hamptons. The average discount for a home on her team’s books is 15 per cent, with some listing at 25 per cent off.

One way to give a buyer confidence is to have another buyer, and the only way to do that is to price it correctly the first time
Philip Harvey, Property Vision

In January, when Matt cut the price for his three-bedroom flat from £725,000 to £675,000, he got an offer for £615,000. “The buyer told us: we saw you’d cut your price so we thought you were really keen to sell,” he says.

And while selling a home “off market” has been gaining in popularity as a way to test the market for higher value homes — and to avoid public price drops — even this, says Tellwright, does little to counter the fallout of overpricing. Many buyers at this level use a buying agent and nearly all of these agents will be approached about an off-market sale, says Tellwright. The price cuts may not be on the property portals, but “there’s definitely a footprint”.


In London this year, there has been a 44 per cent increase in the number of homes that were overpriced on initial listing, forcing a reduction © Getty Images

There are few excuses for getting the price wrong, argues Gerald FitzGerald, a chartered surveyor who values country homes for Savills: “It’s the easiest time to value a home since the credit crunch.” Professional valuations rely heavily on past sales, he explains; since most prime rural and London markets have been flat or falling for at least two years, and there is little prospect for short-term price rises, there are a wealth of benchmarks. In cities, where there are higher levels of comparable transactions to review, the process is particularly straightforward.

And given that even sales agents are talking down the market, this isn’t a situation that is likely to change soon. “In six months’ time [prices will] probably be 5 to 10 per cent off where they are now. I can’t see we’ve hit the bottom yet,” says Tellwright. “It’s not going to be six to 12 months when the market turns, it’s going to be two to three years,” says Stuart Bailey, head of super-prime sales for London at Knight Frank.

If it’s so easy to value property now, why are so many sellers getting it wrong?

Having an optimistic value of your property is human nature, says Scarisbrick: “Owners see something special in their property, which makes them feel it is worth more.”

Friends are also frequently guilty of fanning owners’ unrealistic expectations, according to Crispin Holborow, joint head of Savills private office, who specialises in country homes. “Don’t listen to your friends. They won’t say: you totally overspent, and yes, please, I’d love another glass of champagne,” he says.

A deep psychological aversion to making a loss is also proving particularly dangerous in a market where growing numbers of homes are being sold for less than they were bought. “Loss aversion”, which has long been documented by behavioural psychologists, means the prospect of a loss influences us much more than that of a gain. One Boston study of nearly 6,000 apartment sales quantified how deluded sellers become when facing a loss. This group consistently added a premium to their sale price of 25 to 35 per cent of the loss they were facing, when compared with other sellers.


The rise of ‘loss aversion’: ‘Everyone has a home sale on the street that they feel is directly relevant to theirs and it’s never the cheapest one’ © Steve Vidler/Alamy

Loss aversion is a particular concern now because of the sheer number of homes that are worth less than they were bought for. Prime central London prices have fallen 22 per cent since 2014, according to Savills. And even sellers who are sitting on gains can be biased by loss aversion, since they often anchor their sense of their home’s value from where it reached during the last peak. “Everyone has a home sale on the street that they feel is directly relevant to theirs and it’s never the cheapest one,” says Scarisbrick.



Unscrupulous estate agents can encourage the bias towards overvaluing homes to secure business, according to buying agent Henry Pryor. “For some estate agents flattery is their business model,” he says.

Consider the incentives when it comes to selling a £1mn home, for a 1.5 per cent commission. If an agent can seduce a seller with an inflated valuation, even if they mess up the sale and achieve 10 per cent less, their commission is only down £1,500. But if they give an accurate valuation and lose the instruction to a competitor, they stand to lose around £15,000. Often agents insist on 12-week exclusivity agreements — plenty of time to push a seller towards dropping the price to a more realistic level.

Don’t listen to your friends. They won’t say: you totally overspent, and yes, please, I’d love another glass of champagne
Crispin Holborow, Savills private office

When MacCormick called the agent to propose a lower price for her two-bedroom flat in East Dulwich he immediately suggested a reduction of £75,000. “When I asked him to justify this [with research] he just said, ‘OK, how about £25,000?’ It felt like they had just been winging it to get our listing.”

More responsible agents are increasingly refusing to list homes unless sellers agree to price them realistically. Bailey at Knight Frank says the number of clients he has turned away for this reason has doubled in the past year.

Even in pockets of the country where demand for houses remains high, savvy sellers see the benefits from sensible pricing. In Wrexham, home prices have increased 7 per cent in the year to July, thanks in part to the rising fortunes of Wrexham Football Club, whose takeover in 2020 by actors Rob McElhenney and Ryan Reynolds featured in a documentary TV series Welcome to Wrexham. Tim Hughes, who is preparing to sell his family house there, recently sought a viewing for another home in the area. It was priced for £235,000, had 17 viewings, and sold the week it was listed for £253,000. That has persuaded him to list his home close to the lower end of estimates provided by local agents, to generate comparable interest.

“If you price too high I think it pushes people away, even in the market we have in Wrexham right now,” he says.


In some parts of the country demand remains high; in Wrexham, home prices have increased 7 per cent in the year to July and reductions are uncommon © Sabena Jane Blackbird/Alamy

So what’s the best way to counter the rose-tinted view and maximise the likelihood of a sale?

Lean in. When establishing the value of a home, the ingredients in place for professional valuers able to judge the market is also in place for sellers: little, or negative, price growth means a long period during which there are home sales that can be used for comparison. “There’s no substitute for this research: scour the property websites for everything that has sold in the past two years and meticulously detail the key features of each home that compares to yours,” says Property Vision’s Harvey.

In addition to location, surveyor FitzGerald considers price per square foot and position — often adding a lump sum on top for a coastal or other view — as well as excellent local transport and the quality of local schools. Pay special attention to condition, and be realistic about the cost required to bring this in line with others, he says: “Increases in construction and material costs mean I spend more time on this calculation than anything else currently.”


An inflated price estimate and subsequent price reduction meant that Alex MacCormick had to abandon plans to leave London and move to Winchester (pictured) © Michael Foley/Alamy

Don’t jump the gun. “If you are moving, make sure you are rock solid on the price you can achieve before you start viewing your next home,” says Harvey. Anchored to her agent’s inflated price estimate, MacCormick and her husband had started bidding on homes in Winchester. Today, their price cut means they have abandoned their plan to leave London. “It’s been a difficult adjustment for us,” she says.

Make an agent work for new business. Once sellers have a price in mind, they should shortlist and meet with three agents, advise Pryor, Scarisbrick and Harvey. Quiz friends and friends of friends for ones to avoid. Challenge each agent to justify their estimates, presenting them with those offered by their peers. This will filter out agents like MacCormick’s who haven’t done their research. “Don’t be scared to put agents on the spot. There are no embarrassing questions — ultimately, they want to sell your home,” says Pryor.

“Tough questions [from a seller] indicate you are serious. I have to be better armed with facts and figures than at any time,” adds Tellwright.

Be strategic with information disclosure, advises Ayesha Ofori, a property investor for more than 12 years with a portfolio concentrated in London and the Midlands. Crucial information, such as time deadlines for moving, give buyers negotiating power. Hold specific details back on a need to know basis, she says.

“Once you have established the price below which you won’t sell, tell your agent a slightly higher price,” she continues, to leave room for negotiating. But only slightly. There are still some buyers who “need a discount to feel they’ve got a good deal”, notes Pryor. Because that’s what everyone wants — to feel they have got a good deal.

[senslev]

Grecia aprueba, pese a las protestas, la jornada laboral de hasta 13 horas

https://www.elmundo.es/economia/2025/10/16/68f12374e85ececd578b458f.html


KK