Re:PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Otoño 2025

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/salud-bienestar/noticias/13689374/12/25/la-falta-de-medicos-en-los-hospitales-publicos-provoca-el-colapso-de-la-sanidad.html

https://www.eleconomista.es/opinion/noticias/13689413/12/25/la-sanidad-publica-mengua-por-falta-de-dinero-no-porque-crezca-la-privada.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/13689104/12/25/los-expertos-de-diaz-se-escudan-en-el-ipc-para-inflar-en-219-euros-la-propuesta-de-smi-sin-tributacion.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20251113/textview/page/53

La inflación confirma una subida de las pensiones del 2,7%

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/vivienda-inmobiliario/noticias/13688275/12/25/el-indice-de-referencia-para-actualizar-el-alquiler-registra-su-nivel-mas-alto-desde-el-arranque-de-la-serie-y-sube-hasta-el-229-en-noviembre.html

https://www.europapress.es/economia/construccion-y-vivienda-00342/noticia-boe-publica-nombramiento-directora-general-sepes-leire-iglesias-presidenta-casa-47-20251212145911.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

Major Automakers Say China Poses 'Clear and Present Threat' To US Auto Industry
Posted by msmash on Friday December 12, 2025 @09:01AM from the how-about-that dept.

Major automakers have urged Washington to prevent Chinese government-backed automakers and battery manufacturers from opening U.S. manufacturing plants, warning the industry's future is at stake. From a report:

The Alliance for Automotive Innovation, which represents General Motors, Ford, Toyota Motor, Volkswagen, Hyundai, Stellantis and other major automakers, sounded the alarm and said Congress and the Trump administration needed to act.

"China poses a clear and present threat to the auto industry in the U.S.," the group wrote in a statement for a U.S. House hearing on Chinese vehicles. The group also said lawmakers should maintain the U.S. Commerce Department's prohibition on importing information and communications technology and services from China that effectively bars the import of vehicles from Chinese manufacturers. "No amount of investment by automakers and battery manufacturers operating inside the U.S. can counter a China that is enabled by subsidies to chronically oversupply around the world. This is a recipe for dumping that Congress and the Trump Administration must prevent from happening inside the U.S.," the auto industry group said.

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

China Leads Research in 90% of Crucial Technologies - a Dramatic Shift this Century
Posted by msmash on Friday December 12, 2025 @11:44AM from the closer-look dept.

China is leading research in nearly 90% of the crucial technologies that "significantly enhance, or pose risks to, a country's national interests," according to a technology tracker run by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) -- an independent think-tank. Nature:

The ASPI's Critical Technology Tracker evaluated research on 74 current and emerging technologies this year, up from the 64 technologies it analyzed last year. China is ranked number one for research on 66 of the technologies, including nuclear energy, synthetic biology, small satellites, while the United States topped the remaining 8, including quantum computing and geoengineering.

The results reflect a drastic reversal. At the beginning of this century, the United States led more than 90% of the assessed technologies, whereas China led less than 5% of them, according to the 2024 edition of the tracker. "China has made incredible progress on science and technology that is reflected in research and development, as well as in publications," says Ilaria Mazzocco, who researches China's industrial policy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a non-profit research organization based in Washington DC.

Mazzocco says the general trend identified by the ASPI is not a surprise, but it is "remarkable" to see that China is so dominant and advanced in so many fields compared with the United States.

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-13/long-dated-bonds-selloff-why-governments-face-higher-borrowing-costs

How Debt, Inflation and Politics Are Driving Up Borrowing Costs


A Wall Street sign near the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Monday, April 21, 2025.Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg

A prolonged period of elevated long-term bond yields is ramping up borrowing costs around the world. That’s because investors are demanding extra compensation for holding government debt in the face of entrenched budget deficits, sticky inflation and burgeoning questions around central bank independence.

Expectations that a cycle of central bank rate cuts will end soon — and even give way to rate increases in some parts of the world — are also denting sentiment, pushing yields on longer-dated debt back to levels last seen in 2009.

As investors assess the yields at which they’re willing to buy bonds, they’re concerned that politicians lack the ambition, or even the ability, to rein in their countries’ finances. If rising borrowing costs are accompanied by sustained price pressures, central bankers might be helpless to respond.

What’s been happening with long-dated bonds?

Traders buy and sell bonds based on the relative appeal of their fixed interest payments. The longer until expiration, when the principal investment is repaid, the more can go wrong in the interim. Notes and bonds due in 10 to 100 years usually pay higher interest rates than for bills that mature in less than a year, for example, to compensate buyers for the additional risk.

When a country’s economic outlook worsens, bond yields typically fall as investors become willing to accept lower returns. That’s partly in anticipation that the central bank will shift its focus from combating inflation to stimulating economic activity via lower benchmark interest rates. The prospect of lower returns from stocks and other economically sensitive assets can also fuel demand for bonds.

Lately, however, yields for long bonds have been rising. In the US, that’s in part because the economy, while not booming, has been strong enough to power share prices to records, while inflation has remained stronger than forecast.



Why are there concerns about debt and deficits?

Governments across the world loaded up on cheap debt after the 2008 global financial crisis, then borrowed even more to cope with coronavirus lockdowns and accompanying recessions. Global debt reached a record $324 trillion in the first quarter of 2025, driven by China, France and Germany, according to the Institute of International Finance.

The borrowing binge was fueled in part by a prolonged period of ultra-low interest rates following the financial crisis, which ended abruptly when the pandemic triggered a surge in inflation. Major central banks raised interest rates and wound down bond-buying programs known as quantitative easing, making the scale of borrowing harder to sustain. Some central banks are now even actively selling the debt they accumulated via quantitative easing back into the market, adding further upward pressure on bond yields.

The concern is that if yields stay high and governments fail to get their fiscal houses in order, the cost of servicing some of that debt will just keep climbing.

In the US, the cost of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tax-and-spending law is a further worry for bond investors. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act could add $3.4 trillion to the US deficit over the next decade — not accounting for dynamic effects such as the potential growth impact — according to the Congressional Budget Office, which provides nonpartisan analysis of US fiscal policy.

Moody’s Ratings stripped the US of its last-remaining top credit score in May, citing fears that the ballooning national debt and deficit will damage the country’s standing as the preeminent destination for global capital.

Import tariffs the administration began enforcing in 2025 had raised about $240 billion in revenue through November, helping the deficit to unexpectedly narrow for the fiscal year. But even if they survive legal challenges, they won’t raise enough to close the gap.

What’s been driving the recent bond moves?

As well as the lingering debt strains, politics have been a major factor.

Trump has repeatedly criticized Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May 2026, for not cutting interest rates more quickly.

White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett has emerged as the front-runner to replace Powell, and he’s widely considered a supporter of Trump’s preference for lower rates.
Concerns around the independence of the next Fed chairman are spurring some investors to demand higher interest as compensation for holding US Treasuries. The assumption is that the next Fed chair could push for faster, deeper rate cuts to please Trump, leading to a surge in inflation that sends bond yields soaring anew.

The cocktail of global risks is pushing the so-called “term premia” — what investors demand for the uncertainty of holding bonds for longer — higher.

Why is a spike in long bond yields a problem?

Investors want the bond market to be predictable and steady, as these assets are what many of them hold to ensure a rock-solid stream of income to balance out the volatility of higher-risk, higher-reward investments such as technology stocks.

When longer-term yields jump, they raise the cost of mortgages, auto loans, credit card debt and other forms of borrowing, squeezing households and companies and weakening economic activity.

And if long bond yields stay high, it will gradually affect how much it costs governments to borrow too. That, and any accompanying deterioration in economies, could mean a “doom loop” in which debt levels climb even higher no matter what governments do with tax and spending.

At times, rebellions in markets can even lead to the fall of governments — as seen in the UK in 2022. Then-Prime Minister Liz Truss’s mini-budget, which included billions in unfunded commitments, roiled the bond market and led investors to drive up borrowing costs. In the early 1990s, so-called bond vigilantes were said to be powerful enough to force President Bill Clinton to rein in US debt.

Where could things go from here?

It’s not clear what a prolonged period of higher borrowing costs would mean for the mountain of long-term debt that governments binged on during 15 years of ultra-low interest rates. The upward shift in yields is already leading to new phenomena with unpredictable consequences.

Japan’s government bonds used to have such low yields that they acted as a kind of anchor by adding downward pressure on yields the world over.

In the UK, Chancellor Rachel Reeves has had to show the bond market she’s on top of the nation’s finances while navigating tensions within her own party over spending.

In the US, there’s still concern that post-pandemic inflation isn’t yet under control and that Trump’s import tariffs could add further inflationary pressure that exacerbates the bond yield spike. On the other hand, his trade war may also weaken the economy, leading the Fed and other central banks to cut interest rates.

Or both could happen, whereby there’s a surge in prices accompanied by falling economic output or zero growth — a situation known as stagflation. This would add to the uncertainty over monetary policy, forcing the Fed to choose between supporting growth or suppressing inflation.

Is this a taste of the future for long bond yields?

Jamie Rush, Tom Orlik and Stephanie Flanders of Bloomberg Economics have argued that politics and structural forces could potentially make 10-year Treasury yields of 4.5% the new normal.

That comes as decades of decline in the “natural” interest rate — the real interest rate that would prevail if the economy were operating at full employment with stable inflation — have already ended, and partially reversed.

“In the years ahead, the natural rate is set to edge higher still,” Rush, Orlik and Flanders wrote in a book, The Price of Money, published in August 2025. “If risks from debt, climate, geopolitics, and technology crystallize, it could rise quite a lot.”