La burbuja de la IA

[muyuu]

En el gráfico vemos que las job vacancies de los graduates están cayendo desde 2016 (y no sabemos como era el gráfico los años anteriores). ¿Eso es por la IA?.

yo creo que no, pero la IA es una excusa propicia para reducir personal

dicho esto, el "breakthough" de chatGPT fue el de noviembre de 2022, y más o menos coincide con un descenso del trabajo de graduados (que no necesariamente "cualificado") de dimensiones incluso superiores al de la plandemia

[muyuu]

En el gráfico vemos que las job vacancies de los graduates están cayendo desde 2016 (y no sabemos como era el gráfico los años anteriores). ¿Eso es por la IA?.

En el gráfico vemos que las job vacancies de los graduates están cayendo desde 2016 (y no sabemos como era el gráfico los años anteriores). ¿Eso es por la IA?.

yo creo que no, pero la IA es una excusa propicia para reducir personal

dicho esto, el "breakthough" de chatGPT fue el de noviembre de 2022, y más o menos coincide con un descenso del trabajo de graduados (que no necesariamente "cualificado") de dimensiones incluso superiores al de la plandemia

por ejemplo:

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/02/26/business/block-layoffs-ai-jack-dorsey

Block lays off nearly half its staff because of AI. Its CEO said most companies will do the same
By
Ramishah Maruf
Updated 9 hr ago


Jack Dorsey, co-founder of Block, announced the company is cutting its staff by 40%. Eva Marie Uzcategui/Bloomberg/Getty Images
New York
 —
Block, the company behind Square, Cash App and Afterpay, is cutting its staff by 40%. The reason: “intelligence tools,” according to a letter to shareholders by co-founder Jack Dorsey.

Dorsey thinks most companies will follow suit in the near future.

The company is laying off more than 4,000 people, reducing the workforce to just under 6,000.

The cuts come as AI has reshaped jobs across the tech sector and is raising concerns about the future of the job market. Companies like Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Verizon have all made sweeping cuts in the last year tangentially related to AI.

“A significantly smaller team, using the tools we’re building, can do more and do it better. And intelligence tool capabilities are compounding faster every week,” Dorsey wrote.

Block CFO Amrita Ahuja said it more plainly in the tech company’s financial guidance: “We see an opportunity to move faster with smaller, highly talented teams using AI to automate more work.”

In a post on X, Dorsey guaranteed that the cuts weren’t happening because the business is struggling, but rather because “our business is strong… gross profit continues to grow.”

The co-founder of Twitter believes he’s ahead of the game.

“I think most companies are late. Within the next year, I believe the majority of companies will reach the same conclusion and make similar structural changes. I’d rather get there honestly and on our own terms than be forced into it reactively,” he wrote.

Many of the companies that are cutting hordes of jobs – and blaming it on AI – had swelled in size during the pandemic years, when tech companies were meeting demand for online services. Block, for example, employed 3,835 people by the end of 2019 and had grown its headcount to over 10,000 before Thursday’s layoffs. Meta had nearly doubled its headcount in roughly two years.

Now, tech leaders are paring back and returning to those pre-pandemic numbers.

On X, Dorsey said he chose to be honest about the company’s position and act now, rather than “cut gradually over months or years.”

Dorsey said affected employees will have severance for 20 weeks or more depending on tenure, equity vested until the end of May and six months of health care as well as any corporate devices and an extra $5,000.

Investors have reacted well to the gutting of jobs. Block’s shares soared up to 24% after the announcement.

The cuts come amid rising concerns about how AI will impact the workforce as AI giants like Anthropic and OpenAI continue to push out new enterprise tools. Just this week, Anthropic updated its popular Claude model to perform better at office jobs in human resource, design and wealth management. Software stocks cratered earlier this month after Anthropic launched updates to its Claude Cowork tool.

Dorsey’s decision also reflects a growing sentiment among tech leaders to operate more leanly as AI evolves. Amazon said it needed “fewer layers” to “operate as quickly as possible,” calling AI is the “most transformative technology we’ve seen since the internet” in a memo from October announcing layoffs.

la peli es que la IA esto o aquello, a pesar de que supuestamente hay beneficios

la realidad es que no saben qué hacer con tanta gente y van a volver más o menos a niveles similares de 2019, lo que ocurre es que desde entonces han contratado a cascoporro

y por supuesto suben los haktibos y los merkaos

[muyuu]

https://www.anthropic.com/news/statement-department-of-war

Statement from Dario Amodei on our discussions with the Department of War \ Anthropic
Statement from Dario Amodei on our discussions with the Department of War
26 Feb 2026
I believe deeply in the existential importance of using AI to defend the United States and other democracies, and to defeat our autocratic adversaries.

Anthropic has therefore worked proactively to deploy our models to the Department of War and the intelligence community. We were the first frontier AI company to deploy our models in the US government’s classified networks, the first to deploy them at the National Laboratories, and the first to provide custom models for national security customers. Claude is extensively deployed across the Department of War and other national security agencies for mission-critical applications, such as intelligence analysis, modeling and simulation, operational planning, cyber operations, and more.

Anthropic has also acted to defend America’s lead in AI, even when it is against the company’s short-term interest. We chose to forgo several hundred million dollars in revenue to cut off the use of Claude by firms linked to the Chinese Communist Party (some of whom have been designated by the Department of War as Chinese Military Companies), shut down CCP-sponsored cyberattacks that attempted to abuse Claude, and have advocated for strong export controls on chips to ensure a democratic advantage.

Anthropic understands that the Department of War, not private companies, makes military decisions. We have never raised objections to particular military operations nor attempted to limit use of our technology in an ad hoc manner.

However, in a narrow set of cases, we believe AI can undermine, rather than defend, democratic values. Some uses are also simply outside the bounds of what today’s technology can safely and reliably do. Two such use cases have never been included in our contracts with the Department of War, and we believe they should not be included now:

Mass domestic surveillance. We support the use of AI for lawful foreign intelligence and counterintelligence missions. But using these systems for mass domestic surveillance is incompatible with democratic values. AI-driven mass surveillance presents serious, novel risks to our fundamental liberties. To the extent that such surveillance is currently legal, this is only because the law has not yet caught up with the rapidly growing capabilities of AI. For example, under current law, the government can purchase detailed records of Americans’ movements, web browsing, and associations from public sources without obtaining a warrant, a practice the Intelligence Community has acknowledged raises privacy concerns and that has generated bipartisan opposition in Congress. Powerful AI makes it possible to assemble this scattered, individually innocuous data into a comprehensive picture of any person’s life—automatically and at massive scale.

Fully autonomous weapons. Partially autonomous weapons, like those used today in Ukraine, are vital to the defense of democracy. Even fully autonomous weapons (those that take humans out of the loop entirely and automate selecting and engaging targets) may prove critical for our national defense. But today, frontier AI systems are simply not reliable enough to power fully autonomous weapons. We will not knowingly provide a product that puts America’s warfighters and civilians at risk. We have offered to work directly with the Department of War on R&D to improve the reliability of these systems, but they have not accepted this offer. In addition, without proper oversight, fully autonomous weapons cannot be relied upon to exercise the critical judgment that our highly trained, professional troops exhibit every day. They need to be deployed with proper guardrails, which don’t exist today.
To our knowledge, these two exceptions have not been a barrier to accelerating the adoption and use of our models within our armed forces to date.

The Department of War has stated they will only contract with AI companies who accede to “any lawful use” and remove safeguards in the cases mentioned above. They have threatened to remove us from their systems if we maintain these safeguards; they have also threatened to designate us a “supply chain risk”—a label reserved for US adversaries, never before applied to an American company—and to invoke the Defense Production Act to force the safeguards’ removal. These latter two threats are inherently contradictory: one labels us a security risk; the other labels Claude as essential to national security.

Regardless, these threats do not change our position: we cannot in good conscience accede to their request.

It is the Department’s prerogative to select contractors most aligned with their vision. But given the substantial value that Anthropic’s technology provides to our armed forces, we hope they reconsider. Our strong preference is to continue to serve the Department and our warfighters—with our two requested safeguards in place. Should the Department choose to offboard Anthropic, we will work to enable a smooth transition to another provider, avoiding any disruption to ongoing military planning, operations, or other critical missions. Our models will be available on the expansive terms we have proposed for as long as required.

We remain ready to continue our work to support the national security of the United States.

[Benzino Napaloni]

Con la IA estamos ahora mismo en el punto álgido de una burbuja especulativa.

Hay FOMO, hay que meterse ahí como sea, hay que gastar lo que sea, si hay que reducir plantilla para cuadrar gastos se hace, etc.

Los despidos tienen esa triple vertiente: el gasto de ahora en la IA, la sobrecontratación en pandemia, y la purga posterior. Sin olvidarnos de que las empresas entraron en pánico en pandemia al ver que les faltaba gente y que tuvieron que subir sueldos.

Hay más de un empresario que piensa que "se acabó ya la fiesta" y que "hay que devolver al empleado al redil". Aquí me remito a lo que ya comenté de la salida de la Peste Negra en Inglaterra:

https://www.transicionestructural.net/index.php?topic=2638.msg256165#msg256165

• La peste negra [...] causó un notable descenso en la mano de obra disponible.
• Los terratenientes se encontraron repentinamente con un fuerte aumento de la competición en busca de trabajadores, quienes disponían de un mayor poder de negociación y reclamaron consiguientemente mayores salarios.
• El aumento de los costes laborales dio lugar a una inflación generalizada.
• Las clases altas lamentaron el cambio repentino en las relaciones de poder económico.
• En un intento por controlar los costes laborales y los niveles de precios, Eduardo III aprobó la Ordenanza de los Trabajadores en 1349.
• Sin embargo, estos cambios no tuvieron en cuenta las cambiantes condiciones económicas durante la peste negra.
• El estatuto también estableció la obligación de que todo hombre y mujer que pudiese trabajar lo hiciera, e impuso fuertes penas a los ociosos.
• En la práctica, el estatuto se aplicó poco y no tuvo éxito.

No hay Plan. Ni siquiera "flan". Es seguir el son del viento.

[muyuu]

por si a alguien le quedaba alguna duda de que OpenAI lee las conversaciones

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/02/25/politics/chatgpt-china-intimidation-operation