PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Invierno 2025

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/ff647840-3d00-45d1-a5b2-6f0a926a9b6c

Donald Trump links Greenland pursuit to failure to win Nobel Prize

US president texts Norwegian leader that he no longer feels obliged ‘to think purely of Peace’ after missing out on award


Donald Trump: ‘The world is not secure unless we have complete and total control of Greenland’ © Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters

US President Donald Trump has linked his pursuit of Greenland to his failure to win the Nobel Peace Prize in a message to Norway’s prime minister.

Trump told Jonas Gahr Støre in a text message that “considering your Country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize . . . I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace, although it will always be predominant, but can now think about what is good and proper for the United States of America”.

The US president added: “The World is not secure unless we have Complete and Total Control of Greenland.”

Støre confirmed on Monday morning that he had received the message in reply to a text he had sent Trump protesting against the move to impose tariffs on Norway and other European countries for sending troops to Greenland. PBS News first reported the text.

The 2025 prize was awarded to María Corina Machado, the Venezuelan opposition leader, who gave the Nobel medal to Trump at the White House last week in “recognition for his unique commitment” to her country’s freedom.

In a campaign to secure the prize, Trump claimed to have ended eight wars since returning to the White House a year ago.

Norway has repeatedly told Trump that an independent committee — whose members are chosen by the country’s parliament — chooses the Nobel Peace Prize winner, not the government.

“We had an uphill struggle to convince China,” a Norwegian diplomat said about the decision to award the 2010 Peace Prize to Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo, after which Beijing took economic actions against the Norwegian government. “Now we have the same uphill struggle with Trump.”

Trump also repeated his claim that Denmark’s control of Greenland was questionable, despite several times being recognised by the US in treaties, including in the 1916-17 convention on selling the Danish West Indies.

He wrote to Støre: “Denmark cannot protect that land from Russia or China, and why do they have a “right of ownership” anyway? There are no written documents, it’s only that a boat landed there hundreds of years ago, but we had boats landing there, also.”

Trump added: “I have done more for Nato than any other person since its founding, and now, Nato should do something for the United States.”

Støre said on Monday that his message — on behalf of himself and Finnish president Alexander Stubb — pointed at the need “to de-escalate the exchange of words, and requested a telephone call between Trump, Stubb and me during the day”.

PBS said it had received Trump’s message after it was forwarded to “multiple” European embassies in Washington.

[el malo]

'TRASLATIO IMPERII'.—

No es verdad que el Gobierno español haya contemporizado en materia de timojuego de dinero sin trabajar del Ladrillo porque buena parte de sus altos cargos y militantes, y su electorado, participan en él. Es única y exclusivamente por el electorado: la mayoría natural electoral es jugadora del Ladrillo.

Con otras palabras, hay una contradicción entre la ecuación de intereses del Capital & Dinero y la democracia formal burguesa.

Y nosotros en este blog añadimos que esta dialéctica es determinante del actual 'traslatio imperii'.

Por decirlo en términos geopolíticos, la dictadura democrática china está encantadísima de la vida con que el anglo sea reo de sus democracias formales: el 'brexit' y el 'usexit' son una bendición de tiros en el pie que se da el imperio. Así es como se le añade la capa sistémica a una crisis que solo tenía que haber sido estructural —enterramiento del delirio popularcapitalista—

Los historiadores de la Leyenda Negra suelen fallar en precisar en qué medida crece la complejidad en cada iteración de la 'traslatio imperii.

Esta mayor complejidad enguachina esa otra ley objetiva de la historia que sería la trampa de Tucídides (pérdida de hegemonía = guerra).

Ahora, no va a haber guerra mundial, por muchas guerras subsidiarias que haya (Ucrania, Gaza, Irán, Venezuela, Groenlandia, ¿Canarias?), guerras un tanto cobardes que prueban la impotencia anglo.

Pero el USD/EUR, insoslayablemente, se va a ir yendo (tres veces el verbo ir) a 1.6000 o más allá.

Es así la primera subfase de la Nueva Era pospopularcapitalista.

¿Entonces qué hacemos? ¿aceptamos lo que dice la mayoría electoral aunque suponga nuestra destrucción como país? ¿anulamos la democracia para salvarnos de nosotros mismos?

Recuerdo una viñeta de hace muchos años que representaba la Democracia como un barco con una vía de agua y 3 personas dentro. Dos de ellas llevaban picos en las manos y le decían a la tercera: "ya sabemos que eres ingeniero y que dices que hay que tapar el agujero, pero hemos votado que lo mejor es hacer el agujero más grande para que salga el agua y hemos ganado". Brillante.

EEUU no va a atacar Groenlandia por muchos motivos. El primero porque por muy Trump que seas no vas a invadir a un aliado. En el hipotético caso de que lo hicieran, para invadir hacen falta "boots on the ground", y ni su ejército ni sus marines están preparados para pelear en terreno ártico. No es lo mismo mandar un par de unidades a hacer sabotajes que a compañías enteras a invadir un páramo glaciar. Sería increíble una escalada militar y que China (¡o Rusia!) se ofreciera a ayudar a Europa. Es tan esperpéntico todo que ya no se sabe lo que es real y lo que no.

Mañana los marines desembarcan en Nuuk y me como my owned 

[Derby]

Si no vendo alquilo y si no alquilo vendo...

https://stevesaretsky.substack.com/p/plan-b?

Plan B

Happy Monday Morning!

Asking rents in Canada fell again in December, falling for the 15th consecutive month according to Rentals.ca. Furthermore, December marked the slowest month for rental demand in two years, capping off five straight months of declining prospect counts.


Source: Rentals.ca

For those that have been following this newsletter, falling rents will come as no surprise. However, the extent of the decline is certainly eye opening. Vancouver and Toronto apartment rents have now plunged to levels last seen in early 2022, recording two-year drops of 13.3% and 11.8%, respectively.


Source: Rentals.ca

From our perspective, the data provided by Rentals.ca is the most accurate, real time data we have seen. It’s certainly much better than CMHC which mostly tracks turnover rents. Either way you slice it, the recent figures provided by Rentals.ca coincide with various other data points we have flagged before. For example, the CMHC shows the vacancy rate in Vancouver has now surged to a thirty year high.

There’s an abundance of new rental supply flooding the market, with developers having to offer several months of free rent and other perks to get these buildings leased up.

As the always insightful Ben Rabidoux notes,

“Canada's population through the first 3 quarters of 2025 grew by a whopping 1,000 people. That's TOTAL population growth including permanent and temp residents. Over the last 3 quarters, nearly 100,000 rental units have started across the country.”

Developers are still ramming through rental supply despite the rental market deteriorating at a rapid pace, almost entirely because of CMHC’s rental construction program requiring very little equity while handing out jumbo 50 year amortizations.

This is morphing into a real problem, and is actually exacerbating the downturn in the resale market. Let me explain.

For years prices increased, rents increased, and population expanded. This drove more investors into the housing market, chasing ever higher returns and supercharging demand. These conditions are all reversing. In fact, the national home price index has now declined nearly 22% from the peak, the sharpest correction in several decades.

According to BMO,

“While real estate prices are positive, keep in mind that inflation over that period has run at 3.7% annualized, leaving real home prices contracting. In fact, in real terms, home prices are now roughly unchanged from where they were 9 years ago.”


Source: Rob Mclister

The prospect of higher returns has vaporized, so capital is looking for a new home. Investors are mostly gone, crushing the demand curve. Hence the 25 year low in home sales last year in both Vancouver and Toronto.

As a result, developers have stopped selling pre-sales and have shifted to building rentals. Yet, ironically, as more rentals flood the market, they’re driving investor cash flows lower, and delaying the inevitable return of the pre-sale buyer.

I can tell you in my Real Estate business, we are getting an increasing number of investors calling with rental properties that are suddenly vacant and having to make the difficult decision of either selling at unfavorable prices, or grinding it out in the rental market with longer lease up periods, and lower rents.

For example, we had one investor client reach out in April 2023 about selling their rental condo downtown. At the time we gave them a valuation of $625,000. They decided not to sell, and kept it rented. Fast forward today, the tenant has now moved out, so they asked for an updated valuation. Today it’s $525,000. Nearly three years and a $100K lower.

They might be better off renting it out today, but they’ll have to accept a lower rent. For some sellers thats fine, for others who are already negative cash flow, that’s a problem.

The point being, in 2022 and 2023 when the resale market was soft, at least rents were still moving higher. This gave sellers an option. If they didn’t like the valuation or the offer price they could just rent out the unit and wait.

You can see this in the new listings count. In 2023 we had a 20 year low in new listings for the year! Why sell in a soft market when rents are so good and the housing market will surely bounce back any day.


Source: GVR, Steve Saretsky

That optimism is now fading as we enter year five of the correction. I suspect we will see another big year for new listings with a lot of sellers that tried to sell in 2025 but were unsuccessful, combined with a weakening rental market that makes Plan B (renting it out) less of an option.

Let’s watch.

[Derby]

https://www.baha.com/Kallas-warns-Trump-Europe-will-hold-its-ground/news/details/65504532

Kallas warns Trump: Europe will hold its ground

European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas warned on Monday that Europe will defend its interests and "hold its ground" against threats from United States President Donald Trump's threats over the Greenland issue.

"Arctic security is a shared transatlantic interest, and one we can discuss with our US allies. But tariff threats are not the way to go about this. Sovereignty is not for trade," Kallas said in a post on X ahead of her meeting with Greenlandic Foreign Minister Vivian Motzfeldt and Denmark's Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen. She added that the EU has a whole set of tools to protect its interests.

The EU's top diplomat's comments follow Trump's warning that he will impose tariffs on European countries over Greenland.

[Derby]

https://www.baha.com/Denmark-on-Greenland-We-have-red-lines/news/details/65504412

Denmark on Greenland: We have red lines

Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen stated on Monday that his country has red lines that cannot be crossed, in connection with the developing situation concerning a push by the United States to acquire Greenland.

At the same time, he emphasized that threats are not the way to acquire the territory, following repeated requests by US President Donald Trump for Denmark to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the US. Rasmussen declared he has no intention to escalate the situation, while noting that Europe will respond to Washington's threat to impose tariffs if no solution is reached, not Denmark.

Speaking immediately after meeting with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Rasmussen expressed his country's gratitude for the support it is receiving, adding that it is important to show the US that this is "not the way to move forward."

https://www.baha.com/Merz-to-try-to-meet-with-Trump-on-Wednesday/news/details/65503464

Merz to 'try to meet' with Trump on Wednesday

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned on Monday that any tariffs US President Donald Trump threatened to impose on countries supporting Greenland's sovereignty would damage transatlantic relations.

The chancellor stated that he will try to meet with Trump on Wednesday in Davos to prevent further escalation, promising that the European countries will retaliate to protect their interests if tariffs come into force. He specified that Greenland belongs to the "European NATO area," expressing confidence in a unified reply after the EU summit scheduled for January 22.

[Derby]

https://www.baha.com/Trump-Europe-should-focus-on-Ukraine-not-Greenland/news/details/65504301

Trump: Europe should focus on Ukraine, not Greenland

United States President Donald Trump declined to comment on Monday on whether he would use force to seize Greenland from Denmark.

In a telephone interview with NBC News, the US president suggested European countries should focus on the war in Ukraine, not Greenland. "Frankly, you see what that’s gotten, them," he remarked. At the same time, Trump confirmed he would act upon his threat to slap tariffs on European nations if no deal on Greenland was reached.

Furthermore, the US leader declared he "does not care" about the Nobel Peace Prize, despite sending a letter to the Norwegian prime minister, in which he criticized that country for not receiving it, adding he no longer feels required to "think purely of peace."

[Betancourt]

Mañana los marines desembarcan en Nuuk y me como my owned 

Yo ya no digo nada...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XwhwJ1PjU_o

"From the Halls of Montezuma
To the Shores of Tripoli;
We fight our country's battles
In the air, on land and sea;
First to fight for right and freedom
And to keep our dollar clean;
We are proud to claim you Greenland
for the United States Marine."

[Asdrúbal el Bello]

No sé ya si estamos en posición de preocuparnos de la geopolítica que ruge en torno nuestro, como en 1914 o 1939, o deberíamos simplemente reflexionar en cómo nos enfrentamos a la realidad de que somos un país en vías de subdesarrollo.

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/a294436d-9d74-49f5-873e-22ba7a83365b

China registers lowest number of births since records began

Population falls for fourth year in a row as policymakers struggle with demographic crisis



A nurse takes care of a newborn. As China’s population gets richer and more educated, people are having fewer babies © AFP/Getty Images

China last year registered the lowest number of births since records began, marking the fourth consecutive year of population decline as policymakers grapple with a demographic crisis. 

On Monday, the government reported that 7.92mn babies were born in 2025, down from 9.54mn the year before, and the lowest number of births since 1949. Last year, 11.31mn people died. China’s population fell 3.39mn to 1.405bn.

The figures, which come after a one-off rise in births in 2024, indicate that China is still not seeing the benefit from measures seeking to bolster the fertility rate — the average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime — following the loosening of its “one-child” policy in 2016.

“The decline in China’s fertility is inevitable, like a giant rock rolling down a hill,” said Yi Fuxian, an expert on Chinese demographics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. “China’s one-child policy accelerated the process. It will be very difficult to move it back uphill.”



Demographers have warned that China’s population decline will accelerate dramatically as postwar baby boomers die. In 2024, a UN study predicted that China will shrink from 1.4bn people in 2024 to 1.3bn by 2050, hitting 633mn by 2100.

There was a mild boost to the birth rate in 2024, the year of the dragon, seen as an auspicious year for giving birth. The increase, the first since 2016, boosted hopes the government’s pronatalist policies were having an impact.

However, analysts expect China to continue to have fewer births as its population gets richer and more educated.

Last year, Beijing loosened rules on marriage registration in an effort to encourage couples to tie the knot. Couples previously had to register their marriages in the location of their household registration, or hukou, an inconvenience for millions of migrant workers who live outside their home province.

Even though the rule change resulted in a mild boost to the marriage numbers, experts said persistent pessimism about the economy discouraged people from getting married and having children.

None of the initiatives has had much success, Yi said, because they “fail to identify the key issues” stopping couples from having children. “It is necessary to reform the social security and tax systems and strengthen family values to ensure that childbearing is materially and morally rewarded,” he said.

China’s fertility rate is now 0.98, said Yi, far below the 2.1 needed for the population to remain stable. He said that China accounts for 17 per cent of the global population, but only 6 per cent of its births, comparable to Nigeria.

The declining population has wide-reaching implications for the Chinese economy. As the number of taxpaying workers shrinks, Beijing will struggle to support a swelling number of retirees.

The population numbers were published alongside economic data that showed China’s economy expanded by 5 per cent in 2025.  

Beijing has put greater emphasis on automation, particularly in the manufacturing sector, an increasingly central engine of the country’s economic growth after the 2021 property crisis.

Policymakers are betting that it can alleviate some of the impact of the ageing workforce by replacing people with robots. China far outstrips the rest of the world in such automation, with around 280,000 new industrial robots every year, or half the global total, according to the International Federation of Robotics.

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-home-prices-extend-decline-december-2026-01-19/

China December new home prices fall again; annual decline steepest in five months


Residential buildings under construction in Beijing, China October 16, 2025. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang Purchase Licensing Rights

Summary

*Home prices fell 0.4% month-on-month, 2.7% annually in December
*Property sector faces persistent downturn despite government pledges
*NBS data shows secondary market weakness across tier-one to tier-three cities

BEIJING, Jan 19 (Reuters) - China's new home prices extended their decline in December, official data showed on Monday, underscoring persistent strains in the property sector despite repeated government pledges to stabilise it.

Prices fell 0.4% month-on-month, the same pace of decline as in November, according to Reuters calculations based on National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data.

On an annual basis, prices dropped 2.7% in December, quickening from a 2.4% fall in the previous month and marking the fastest decline in five months.

"The continued weakness in the property sector is broadly in line with our expectations and is likely to remain a major drag on China's growth over the next two to three years," said Jeff Zhang, an equity analyst at Morningstar.

The continued weakness in new home prices suggests the property downturn could persist into this year unless policymakers roll out more forceful measures to support the sector.

Of the 70 cities surveyed by the NBS, six posted price gains in December, while 58 recorded declines.
NBS data also showed the secondary market remained soft, with existing home prices in tier-one, tier-two and tier-three cities falling faster from a year earlier.

A real estate recovery would help lift household consumption by bolstering perceived wealth and confidence and could also ease broader imbalances between supply and demand in the economy.

"Looking ahead to 2026, the divergent trend in China's property market will continue to deepen," said Zhang Dawei, an analyst at Centaline Property.

Home prices in major cities are expected to gradually stabilise, Zhang added, while smaller cities that lack industrial support and are experiencing population outflows will face a prolonged inventory reduction process.

Property investment in China dropped 17.2% while home sales by floor area decreased 8.7% in 2025, according to separate official data.



TRANSFORMING THE PROPERTY SECTOR

An article published on January 1 in Qiushi, the Communist Party's official journal, said China's property sector, which impacts dozens of different industries, remained a pillar of the economy and had significant room for transformation.

The sector was "undergoing a profound adjustment," the article said, and it called for "strong policy actions" to stabilise expectations.

The property crisis, which began to unfold in mid-2021 after the launch of a government campaign to curb excessive borrowing, has pushed once high-flying developers like Country Garden (2007.HK), opens new tab and Evergrande into financial distress as they are saddled with heavy debt burdens and a backlog of unfinished projects.

China's financial regulator said last week it would promote the "normal operation" of a government programme aimed at accelerating financing support for eligible residential projects that have been stalled.

[breades]

'TRASLATIO IMPERII'.—

No es verdad que el Gobierno español haya contemporizado en materia de timojuego de dinero sin trabajar del Ladrillo porque buena parte de sus altos cargos y militantes, y su electorado, participan en él. Es única y exclusivamente por el electorado: la mayoría natural electoral es jugadora del Ladrillo.

Con otras palabras, hay una contradicción entre la ecuación de intereses del Capital & Dinero y la democracia formal burguesa.

Y nosotros en este blog añadimos que esta dialéctica es determinante del actual 'traslatio imperii'.

Por decirlo en términos geopolíticos, la dictadura democrática china está encantadísima de la vida con que el anglo sea reo de sus democracias formales: el 'brexit' y el 'usexit' son una bendición de tiros en el pie que se da el imperio. Así es como se le añade la capa sistémica a una crisis que solo tenía que haber sido estructural —enterramiento del delirio popularcapitalista—

Los historiadores de la Leyenda Negra suelen fallar en precisar en qué medida crece la complejidad en cada iteración de la 'traslatio imperii.

Esta mayor complejidad enguachina esa otra ley objetiva de la historia que sería la trampa de Tucídides (pérdida de hegemonía = guerra).

Ahora, no va a haber guerra mundial, por muchas guerras subsidiarias que haya (Ucrania, Gaza, Irán, Venezuela, Groenlandia, ¿Canarias?), guerras un tanto cobardes que prueban la impotencia anglo.

Pero el USD/EUR, insoslayablemente, se va a ir yendo (tres veces el verbo ir) a 1.6000 o más allá.

Es así la primera subfase de la Nueva Era pospopularcapitalista.

Precisamente, el hecho de que la mayoría natural haya conseguido dominar la respuesta de los partidos es una prueba irrefutable de que no existen democracias formales burguesas, ni en Europa ni en EEUU. Estos últimos la tuvieron, pero hace ya muchas décadas que se aguachirló. Los europeos ni la han olido.

Seamos claros, la forma de Gobierno predominante son oclocracias (nauseabundas). En una democracia formal burguesa es impensable que la sociedad se parta por la mitad, entre otras cosas, porque tendría los mecanismos suficientes para evitar que las minorías careciesen de representación (no representatividad, que es lo que hay ahora, y de la mala).

Parafraseándole, tenemos democracias de la señorita pepis, pero hacemos como que son democracias fetén, como con todo lo demás. Somos lo que somos, pero parecemos y queremos parecer otra cosa.

[Derby]

https://www.baha.com/Fink-to-Davos-Capitalism-losing-public-trust/news/details/65504819

Fink to Davos: Capitalism losing public trust

BlackRock Inc. CEO Larry Fink will warn the participants of the World Economic Forum (WEF) annual summit in Davos that capitalism is losing public trust, Axios reported on Monday, citing Fink's speech.

"Many of the people most affected by what we talk about here will never come to this conference," Fink is said to acknowledge, stating that prosperity must be "judged by how many people can see it, touch it, and build a future on it." He will reportedly question whether traditional capitalism will prevail when tested by the "AI revolution."

The upcoming summit, allegedly described by Fink as "the largest gathering of global leadership of the post-COVID era" outside of the UN, will gather a great number of world leaders, including United States President Donald Trump and G7 officials.

[breades]

[Ojalá EE. UU. ataque Groenlandia y la UE tenga el motivo de divorcio.]

Parece que con el amago va a ser suficiente (ojalá)

Trump’s Greenland threats push Europe toward divorcing America

With NATO thrown into question, some officials see the “coalition of the willing” as the basis for a new alliance without the U.S.


LONDON — As with many failing relationships, it’s been a story of arguments, unspoken tensions and trying to keep up appearances in public since Donald Trump reentered the White House a year ago.

But for many European governments, including America’s longest-standing and most loyal allies, Trump’s threat of punitive tariffs against anyone who tries to stop him taking Greenland was the final straw. Divorce, they believe, is now inevitable.

In private, dismayed European officials describe Trump’s rush to annex the sovereign Danish territory as “crazy” and “mad,” asking if he is caught up in his “warrior mode” after his Venezuela adventure — and saying he deserves Europe’s toughest retaliation for what many see as a clear and unprovoked “attack” against allies on the other side of the Atlantic.

“I think it is perceived as one step too far,” said one European diplomat, who like others was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “Europe has been criticized for being weak against Trump. There is some truth in that, but there are red lines.”

Senior European officials increasingly believe it’s time to face the truth that Trump’s America is no longer a reliable trade partner, still less a dependable security ally, and urgently look to the future. “There is a shift in U.S. policy and in many ways it is permanent,” according to a senior official with a European government. “Waiting it out is not a solution. What needs to be done is an orderly and coordinated movement to a new reality.”

That coordination has already begun, as has the big conversation about what comes next.

Barring a radical shift in the approach of the United States, this process seems likely to end in a radical reshaping of the West that would upend the global balance of power. The implications range from transatlantic economic damage as trade tensions rise, to security risks as Europe attempts to defend itself without American help before it is fully ready to do so.

There would likely be costs to the United States as well, such as in its ability to project hard power into Africa and the Middle East without access to the network of bases, airstrips and logistical support that Europe currently provides.

A post-U.S. future

Alongside all the talk of retaliation by targeting U.S. trade, diplomats and government officials in national capitals are also considering what a long-term split from Washington might bring.

For most the prospect is a painful one, ending 80 years of peaceful cooperation, mutual support and profitable trade and dealing a death blow to NATO in its current form. Plenty of governments want to salvage what they can, while Italy’s hard right leader, Giorgia Meloni, is trying to rebuild relations.

But for some government officials, a post-U.S. future for Western allies isn’t hard to imagine.

For starters, European states, including those not in the EU like Britain and Norway, have spent much of Trump’s second term working in an increasingly effective group that already operates without America: the so-called coalition of the willing to support Ukraine.
U.S. President Donald Trump leads Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European leaders at the White House on Aug. 18, 2025. States like Britain and Norway, which are not in the EU, have been part of the coalition of the willing in support of Ukraine. | Aaron Schwartz/EPA

National security advisers from 35 governments are in regular contact, meeting frequently online and in person, as well as interacting via less formal text messaging. They are accustomed to seeking multilateral solutions in a world where Trump is a big part of the problem.

Levels of trust in these circles are generally high, according to people familiar with the way the group operates. Nor is it just at the level of officials: National leaders are themselves rolling up their sleeves and working in intimate new groupings.

Leaders including the U.K.’s Keir Starmer, France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Friedrich Merz, as well as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Alexander Stubb of Finland and Meloni of Italy regularly text with each other — often in the same group chat.

Texting leaders

Over the past year they have developed a well-drilled routine of exchanging messages whenever Trump does something wild and potentially damaging. “When things start moving quickly, it’s hard to do the coordination, and this group [chat] is really effective,” said one person familiar with the arrangement. “It tells you a lot about the personal relationships and how they matter.”

The “informal but active” arrangement is known as the Washington Group, after the collection of European leaders who visited the White House with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy last August.

Their approach for the past year has mostly been to keep calm and respond to his policy actions rather than taking the bait of his provocative words. That ethos has oiled the wheels of the Ukraine peace process, with the coalition of the willing closing in on a framework for a peace plan that the U.S. is signed up to — including American security guarantees for Ukraine. This marks a significant achievement given that Trump earlier ruled out the U.S. military playing a role. 

But Trump’s hell-raising over Greenland has now tipped the balance.

Gone is the softly-softly approach to the American president’s threats. Even Starmer, normally the most circumspect of leaders, called out the president’s tariff threat as “wrong,” including, apparently, in a direct call with Trump on Sunday.

The Greenland crisis has focused minds on the question of how to move on without America by their side.

“The coalition of the willing started as being about Ukraine,” said another diplomat. “But it has created very close ties between some of the key people in the capitals. They have been building up trust and also aptitude to work together. They know each other by name and it’s easy to reach out and to send texts.”

Who needs NATO, anyway?

This format could potentially become the seedbed for a new security alliance in an era when the U.S. no longer supports NATO and European security. A new arrangement wouldn’t exclude cooperation with America, but nor would it take it for granted.

Also in the text chats with the Washington Group leaders is Zelenskyy himself, which brings another intriguing idea into the mix. Ukraine is by far the most militarized country among those represented, with a huge army, a highly sophisticated drone production industry, and more expertise in the realities of fighting a war than anyone.
Ukrainian servicemen conducting training in the Kharkhiv region in November last year. Ukraine is by far the most militarized country among those represented in the coalition. | 127th Separate Brigade of the Territorial Defence/EPA

While Ukraine has long sought membership in NATO, that now seems less of a prize than it once did, as America’s promises to underpin any security guarantees grow less convincing by the day.

If Ukraine’s military might were to be included, when added to that of France, Germany, Poland and the U.K., among others, the potential armed power of the coalition of the willing would be vast, and would include both nuclear and non-nuclear states.

Although Europe’s need to defend itself with less American support is an old topic of conversation, recent days have seen a flurry of initiatives and headlines from Brussels. Officially, the EU has resolved to be able to defend itself by 2030.

European Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius a week ago proposed a standing EU army of 100,000 personnel and revived the idea of a European Security Council of around 12 members, including the U.K. Von der Leyen touted a new European Security Strategy, though few details have yet been provided.

There is wide agreement that these conversations about a new European security architecture need to happen, and fast. EU leaders will meet in person for an emergency summit in the coming days to calibrate a response to Trump’s Greenland threats, though the discussion may range far wider than that.

With Trump due to attend the World Economic Forum in Davos, there is also a possibility of face-to-face talks between the European and American sides.

After speaking to Merz, Macron, Starmer and NATO chief Mark Rutte, von der Leyen said on Sunday that Europeans would “stand firm” in their commitment to protect Greenland. “We will face these challenges to our European solidarity with steadiness and resolve,” she said.

Given the current moment, some creative thinking will also be required.

https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-greenland-tariff-threats-tensions-push-europe-allies-toward-divorcing-america-transatlantic-power/

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/2af4d92a-452c-4d35-ab55-3afce930f98a

IMF warns global economic resilience at risk if AI falters

Fund’s chief economist says there are reasons to be concerned about a potential AI correction


The IMF said global growth was founded on the ‘narrow base’ of an AI investment boom in the US © FT montage/Dreamstime

The “surprisingly resilient” global economy is at risk of being disrupted by a sharp reversal in the AI boom, the IMF warned on Monday, as world leaders prepared for talks in the Swiss resort of Davos. 

Risks to global economic expansion were “tilted to the downside”, the fund said in an update to its World Economic Outlook, arguing that growth was reliant on a narrow range of drivers, notably the US technology sector and the associated equity boom. 

Nonetheless, it predicted US growth would strongly outpace the rest of the G7 this year, forecasting an expansion of 2.4 per cent in 2026 and 2 per cent in 2027. Tech investment had surged to its highest share of US economic output since 2001, helping drive growth, the IMF found.

“There is a risk of a correction, a market correction, if expectations about AI gains in productivity and profitability are not realised,” said Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, IMF chief economist.

“We’re not yet at the levels of market frothiness, if you want, that we saw in the dotcom period,” he added. “But nevertheless there are reasons to be somewhat concerned.”


IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas: ‘There is a risk of a correction, a market correction, if expectations about AI gains in productivity and profitability are not realised’ © Kent Nishimura/Bloomberg

Donald Trump will travel to the Swiss resort of Davos this week for the World Economic Forum. The gathering is expected to mingle bullish assessments of US AI investments with anxiety about stock market valuations and threats to institutions, including the US Federal Reserve and Nato. 

The discussions are set to be dominated by the US president’s threat of hitting European countries with 10 per cent tariffs unless they agree to support him acquiring Greenland.

The IMF outlook found that global economic expansion had been firmer than expected despite Trump-induced trade tensions and a widening array of geopolitical hazards. The fund boosted its outlook for 2026 global growth from 3.1 per cent to 3.3 per cent, with only a slight slowdown in 2027 to 3.2 per cent. 

A renewed escalation in the trade conflict could again unsettle growth prospects, however, the IMF cautioned. “Trade tensions could flare up, prolonging uncertainty and weighing more heavily on activity.”

China will expand 4.5 per cent in 2026, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the IMF’s October projections, followed by 4 per cent growth in 2027, according to the outlook.

Among the G7 nations, Canada will have the second-strongest expansion this year after the US at 1.6 per cent. Canadian growth is forecast to pick up to 1.9 per cent in 2027. 

The IMF left its UK forecasts for 2026 and 2027 unchanged, with growth of 1.3 per cent this year and 1.5 per cent in 2027. German GDP will expand by 1.1 per cent this year and 1.5 per cent next, the IMF said. 

Global growth, the IMF said, was founded on the “narrow base” of an AI investment boom in the US. If expectations of AI-driven productivity advances proved overly optimistic, there was a risk of a “sharp drop” in investment and associated stock market reversal, the IMF warned. 



A drop in AI investment coupled with a “moderate correction” in tech stock valuations could knock global growth by about 0.4 percentage points this year, according to the fund.

Gourinchas warned that because tech groups’ market capitalisation as a share of output was now “much bigger” than during the dotcom bubble 25 years ago, even a small reversal could “have a big impact on people’s wealth relative to their income”.

He added that AI hyperscalers’ increasing reliance on debt to fund their investment spree was also a cause for concern. “When you see leverage rising, you kind of get a little bit worried.” 

A sharp stock market correction in the US could also trigger “sizeable wealth losses” outside the US, the IMF added, knocking global consumption.

There was an alternative optimistic scenario that productivity enhancements from AI started to materialise sooner than the IMF expected, however. If this came true, global growth could be boosted by 0.3 percentage points in 2026 and between 0.1 and 0.8 percentage points a year in the medium term, the fund added.

Separate research on Monday from PwC suggested many companies are struggling to unlock benefits from AI, at least for the time being.

A survey of more than 4,000 chief executives from 95 countries and territories showed that only 26 per cent of firms have managed to drive down costs as a result of their spending on AI, while 30 per cent have boosted their revenue as a result of the technology.

The IMF emphasised the importance of central bank independence after the announcement of a criminal probe into US Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell triggered widespread fallout last week. 

“Central bank independence is absolutely paramount when it comes to maintaining macroeconomic stability, financial stability and providing an anchor for sustainable growth,” said Gourinchas.

“In the case of the US Federal Reserve, this is . . . even more important given the dominant position of the US financial system in the global economy [and] given the importance of the US dollar for the international monetary system.”

[sudden and sharp]

Yo diferenciaría a EE UU y Trump. El presi tiene batallas que ganar también en su propio país.


La guerra abierta entre industria cripto y gran banca hace encallar la ley de EE UU sobre activos digitales
https://cincodias.elpais.com/criptoactivos/2026-01-16/la-guerra-abierta-entre-industria-cripto-y-gran-banca-hace-encallar-la-ley-de-ee-uu-sobre-activos-digitales.html
El borrador de la ‘Clarity Act’ restringe el pago de intereses sobre ‘stablecoins’ y desata la ira del sector digital, que paraliza su aprobación en el Senado





Ayer Pimco... hoy la "gran banca"... (sic) No sé yo... No le arriendo la ganancia al fulano. (Por mucho que se crea Cesar.)