Tema: PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Otoño 2022

[wanderer]

Venimos de:

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Otoño 2011

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PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Primavera 2012

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Verano 2012

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Otoño 2012

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Invierno 2013

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Primavera 2013

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PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Otoño 2013

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - INVIERNO 2014

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - PRIMAVERA 2014

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - VERANO 2014

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - VERANO 2014

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Invierno 2014/2015

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PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Primavera 2016

PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Verano 2016

PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Otoño 2016

PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Invierno 2017

PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Primavera 2017

PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Verano 2017

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos Otoño 2017

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos Invierno 2018

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos Primavera 2018

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos Verano 2018

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos Otoño 2018

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos Invierno 2018-2019

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos Primavera 2019

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos Verano 2019

PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Otoño 2019

PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Invierno 2019

PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Primavera 2020

PPCC. PIsitófilos Creditófagos. Verano 2020

PPCC. PIsitófilos Creditófagos. Otoño 2020

PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Invierno 2020/2021

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - PRiMaVeRa 2021

PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Verano 2021

PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Otoño 2021

PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Invierno 2021

PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Primavera 2022

PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Verano 2022

Como dice un célebre adagio chino, que vivas tiempos interesantes, y si tienes suerte, que los sobrevivas... Creo que nada resume mejor lo que nos espera.

[sudden and sharp]

 

[sudden and sharp]

Según explica el secretario general del sindicato de los técnicos de Hacienda (Gestha), José María Mollinedo, “creemos que este impuesto temporal será un gravamen de naturaleza estatal para quitar competencia normativa a las comunidades” y así evitar su supresión. Tampoco habría cesión de esos ingresos a las autonomías, “ya que no tendría lógica darle lo recaudado a una región que previamente ha eliminado el impuesto”. A su vez, con el objetivo de evitar una doble imposición en las regiones que no eliminan Patrimonio, “se descontará lo pagado hasta el límite de lo que resulte del gravamen”. Es decir, con esta fórmula los contribuyentes de las comunidades sin bonificaciones no abonarían el tributo dos veces.

Esto es ilegal, señores, fraude de Ley, por parte del gobierno. (En grado de tentativa...  )

El impuesto a las grandes fortunas sustituirá a Patrimonio en las regiones donde se bonifica, como Madrid
https://cincodias.elpais.com/cincodias/2022/09/22/economia/1663870405_558208.html





A ver.... la prueba del algodón:





Ah... vale, nos podemos olvidar. (Lo que diga el dedo... como siempre.  )

[newclo]

Informe semanal de Bank of America:


El indicador Bull & Bear regresa a 0,  máxima lectura bajista.

Las pérdidas de bonos gubernamentales globales en este año es el peor año desde 1949, el "accidente" de los bonos amenaza eventos de crédito y liquidación de las operaciones más líquidas del mundo.

Los fondos de bonos registran salidas de $6.9 bln durante la semana.

La salida de acciones es de $7.8 bln y las entrada en efectivo $30.3bn.

La inflación, las tasas y los choques de la recesión no han terminado, el "accidente" de los bonos en las últimas semanas significa máximos en los diferenciales de crédito, los mínimos en las acciones aún no han llegado.

Una vez que la inflación está por encima del 5% en las economías avanzadas, tarda en promedio 10 años en caer al 2%.

Siguen disparadas las rentabilidades de los bonos a 10 años:

España: 3.13%
EEUU: 3.75%
Alemania: 2.01%
Francia: 2.56 %
Italia: 4.24%

 Muchos nervios en el mercado de bonos que contagia a las bolsas que se van a mínimos y el dólar a máximos.

La curva de tipos se invierte muy fuertemente. Los bonos alemanes a 10 bajan 0,25% y los de 30 sube 0,84%…los americanos también con mucho desfase. Los bonos descuentan fuerte recesión, sin hacer caso de políticos y sus palmeros y pelotas



https://zonavalue.com/noticias-bolsa/la-curva-de-tipos-se-invierte-muy-fuertemente-los-bonos-alemanes-a-10-bajan-025-y-los-de-30-sube-084-los-americanos-tambien-con-mucho-desfase-los-bonos-descuentan-fuerte-recesion-sin-hacer-caso

Las bolsas aumentan fuertemente las pérdidas. La razón es que de repente han vuelto a aparecer ventas muy agresivas en los bonos americanos. Los bonos a 10 al 3,81% de rentabilidad nada menos. Arrecian las críticas contra la torpeza de Powell que ha sumido en el caos el mercado de bonos. Y los bonos son la bolsa, una cosa es que bajen y otra cosa que el mercado se rompa.



https://zonavalue.com/noticias-bolsa/las-bolsas-aumentan-fuertemente-las-perdidas-la-razon-es-que-de-repente-han-vuelto-a-aparecer-ventas-muy-agresivas-en-los-bonos-americanos-los-bonos-a-10-al-381-de-rentabilidad-nada-menos-arrecian

Alguien podría explicarme porqué se venden agresivamente los bonos americanos a 10 años ?
Es la parte que más me cuesta entender

[Currobena]

Informe semanal de Bank of America:


El indicador Bull & Bear regresa a 0,  máxima lectura bajista.

Las pérdidas de bonos gubernamentales globales en este año es el peor año desde 1949, el "accidente" de los bonos amenaza eventos de crédito y liquidación de las operaciones más líquidas del mundo.

Los fondos de bonos registran salidas de $6.9 bln durante la semana.

La salida de acciones es de $7.8 bln y las entrada en efectivo $30.3bn.

La inflación, las tasas y los choques de la recesión no han terminado, el "accidente" de los bonos en las últimas semanas significa máximos en los diferenciales de crédito, los mínimos en las acciones aún no han llegado.

Una vez que la inflación está por encima del 5% en las economías avanzadas, tarda en promedio 10 años en caer al 2%.

Siguen disparadas las rentabilidades de los bonos a 10 años:

España: 3.13%
EEUU: 3.75%
Alemania: 2.01%
Francia: 2.56 %
Italia: 4.24%

 Muchos nervios en el mercado de bonos que contagia a las bolsas que se van a mínimos y el dólar a máximos.

La curva de tipos se invierte muy fuertemente. Los bonos alemanes a 10 bajan 0,25% y los de 30 sube 0,84%…los americanos también con mucho desfase. Los bonos descuentan fuerte recesión, sin hacer caso de políticos y sus palmeros y pelotas



https://zonavalue.com/noticias-bolsa/la-curva-de-tipos-se-invierte-muy-fuertemente-los-bonos-alemanes-a-10-bajan-025-y-los-de-30-sube-084-los-americanos-tambien-con-mucho-desfase-los-bonos-descuentan-fuerte-recesion-sin-hacer-caso

Las bolsas aumentan fuertemente las pérdidas. La razón es que de repente han vuelto a aparecer ventas muy agresivas en los bonos americanos. Los bonos a 10 al 3,81% de rentabilidad nada menos. Arrecian las críticas contra la torpeza de Powell que ha sumido en el caos el mercado de bonos. Y los bonos son la bolsa, una cosa es que bajen y otra cosa que el mercado se rompa.



https://zonavalue.com/noticias-bolsa/las-bolsas-aumentan-fuertemente-las-perdidas-la-razon-es-que-de-repente-han-vuelto-a-aparecer-ventas-muy-agresivas-en-los-bonos-americanos-los-bonos-a-10-al-381-de-rentabilidad-nada-menos-arrecian

Alguien podría explicarme porqué se venden agresivamente los bonos americanos a 10 años ?
Es la parte que más me cuesta entender

Porque se espera que sigan subiendo los tipos de interés a largo plazo, idealmente hasta el 8%. Esto hace que los bonos actuales, con rentabilidades nominales inferiores, bajen su precio de compra para ajustarlos a la rentabilidad real prevista.

[Saturio]

Exacto. Si se espera deuda nueva con más "cupón" la deuda vieja con menos "cupon" pierde valor. La gente liquida la vieja para comprar la nueva.

Es la historia de la inversión entre precio y rentabilidad de la renta fija.

El tema es que no sólo baja el precio de la deuda sino el valor de los fondos de inversión que la contienen y todos los refritos e inventicos subsecuentes.

[newclo]

CASH IS KING

 BofA dice que el cash 'es el rey' a medida que el pesimismo de los inversores alcanza el pico de la era 2008.

Los inversores acuden en masa al dinero y evitan casi todas las demás clases de activos a medida que se vuelven las más bajistas desde la crisis financiera mundial, según los estrategas de Bank of America. El sentimiento de los inversores es "sin duda" el peor desde la crisis de 2008. Ven que el efectivo, las materias primas y la volatilidad continúan superando a los bonos y las acciones. Los temores sobre la inflación y el aumento de las tasas se han profundizado ante las señales de que la Fed no suavizará su determinación de endurecer la política monetaria. BofA espera que las acciones de EE.UU. caigan aún más a medida que las valoraciones se vean presionadas por condiciones financieras más estrictas, riesgos geopolíticos crecientes y perspectivas más débiles para el crecimiento global.

El dinero siempre se venga

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/europes-vegetable-farmers-warn-shortages-energy-crisis-bites-2022-09-22/

Europe's vegetable farmers warn of shortages as energy crisis bites

BOUVINES, France, Sept 22 (Reuters) - Emmanuel Lefebvre produces thousands of tonnes of endives on his farm in northern France annually, but this year he may abandon his crop because of the crippling energy costs required to freeze the harvested bulbs.

Across northern and western Europe, vegetable producers are contemplating halting their activities because of the financial hit from Europe's energy crisis, further threatening food supplies.

(...)Even in sun-flushed countries like Spain, fruit and vegetable farmers are grappling with a 25% increase in fertiliser costs.

Jack Ward, chief executive of the British Growers Association, said it was inevitable production of fruit and vegetables would shift to warmer climes.

"We will move production further and further south, down through Spain and into Morocco and bits of Africa," Ward said.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-23/financial-repression-may-become-necessary-to-contain-uk-yields

Financial Repression May Become Necessary to Contain UK Yields

*UK may direct domestic private savers and banks to buy gilts
*Policy a risk for equities as funds diverted to bonds

The sharp rise in gilt yields and fall in sterling after today’s mini-budget may force the UK government to direct domestic savers and banks to own more government debt.

It’s not overly alarmist to say the UK is in some trouble - especially with the pound falling more than 3% against the dollar so far today. Already trying to finance one of the world’s largest twin (budget + current) deficits, while growth is in structural decline and inflation is surging, the UK has to contend with its new government today announcing a fiscal package that will massively ramp up spending through a combination of energy subsidies and tax cuts.

UK bonds and sterling are selling off rapidly as a result. The Bank of England is in an emerging market-style dilemma as it needs to continue raising rates to keep a lid on inflation. More aggressive hikes will eviscerate growth, further deterring the capital inflow necessary to balance the UK’s vast external deficit.

The UK may thus be forced to try to stabilize yields. More quantitative easing is a risky option as this would counter the BoE’s inflation fight and send very mixed signals to the market. Ditto for some sort of yield-curve control. Such a policy is more viable when you don’t have a huge current-account deficit and inflation nudging 10%. Either policy would probably result in sterling going into an even greater free-fall.

Instead, the government can direct UK entities to channel private-sector flows into the public debt market – a type of financial repression – allowing the government to borrow at below-market rates.
This would lead to sharp selloffs in equities, as private flows are directed toward bonds, triggering yet more capital outflow and a weaker currency. Investment would be in jeopardy due to crowding out, further imperiling already-stagnant UK productivity. Overall, history shows that financial repression regresses the development of the economic system.

But the UK is running out of options. Its economic model of a commodity-dependent, export-orientated country, reliant on large capital inflows, doesn’t work in a resource-constrained, de-globalizing world economy. The luxury of palatable choices is one the UK can no longer enjoy.

[sudden and sharp]

Nos vamos a verde.   

[Derby]

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/a-historic-global-bond-market-crash-threatens-the-liquidation-of-worlds-most-crowded-trades-says-bofa-11663953563

A historic global bond-market crash threatens the liquidation of world’s most crowded trades, says BofA

‘If the bond market does not function, then no other market functions, really,’ say Ben Emons of Medley Global Advisors

Global government-bond markets are stuck in what BofA Securities strategists are calling one of their greatest bear markets ever — which, in turn, is threatening the ease with which investors will be able to exit from the world’s most-crowded trades, if needed.

Those trades include long positions in the dollar, U.S. technology companies and private equity, said strategists Michael Hartnett, Elyas Galou, and Myung-Jee Jung. Bonds are generally regarded as one of the most liquid asset classes available to investors; once liquidity dries up there, that spells bad news for just about every other form of investment, other analysts said.

Financial markets have yet to price in the worst-case outcomes for inflation, interest rates, and the economy around the world, despite tumbling global equities along with bond selloffs in the U.S. and the U.K. on Friday. Dow industrials DJIA were off by more than 700 points at their lows, flirting with a fall into bear-market territory, while the S&P 500 SPX threatened to take out its June closing low.

U.S. yields were trading at multiyear highs. Meanwhile, government-bond rates in the U.K., German, and French have risen at the fastest clip since the 1990s, according to BofA Securities.

“Inflation/rates/recession shocks are not over,” plus the bond crash in recent weeks “means highs in credit spreads, lows in stocks are not yet in,” the BofA strategists wrote in a note released Thursday. They said investor sentiment is “unquestionably” the worst since the 2007-2009 global financial crisis. The strategists also see the fed-funds rate target, Treasury yields, and the U.S. unemployment rate all heading to between 4% and 5% over coming months and quarters.

Government bonds have racked up losses of 20% this year, as of Thursday — the worst losses since 1920, according to BofA. For all of 2022, global government bonds are on course for one of their worst performances since the Treaty of Versailles, which was signed in 1919 and went into effect in 1920 — establishing the terms for peace at the end of World War I.  Yields and bond prices move in opposite directions, so rising yields reflect the sinking prices on government debt.



Liquidity matters because it ensures that assets can be bought or sold without significantly impacting the price of that security. Without liquidity, it’s harder to convert an asset into cash without losing money against the market price.

Government bonds are the world’s most liquid asset so “if the bond market does not function, then no other market functions, really,” said Ben Emons, managing director of global macro strategy at Medley Global Advisors in New York.

“Rising yields continue to dry up credit and are going to hit the global economy hard,” Emons said via phone on Friday. “There’s a risk of a ‘sell-everything market’ that would resemble March 2020, as people withdraw from markets amid greater volatility and find they cannot actually trade.”

A historic bond selloff in the U.K. on Friday, triggered by eroding investor confidence fueled by the government’s mini-budget plan, only exacerbated fears about worsening liquidity, particularly in the ordinarily safe Treasury market.

In the U.S., Federal Reserve officials have shown a willingness to break something with higher rates —whether it be in financial markets or the economy — to bring down the hottest inflation spell of the past 40 years.

Part of this month’s retreat in global bond prices “is the real fear that central bank hikes spiral upward in a competitive race to maintain currency viability and not to become the last country holding the bag of runaway inflation,” said Jim Vogel, an executive vice president at FHN Financial in Memphis.

https://www.eleconomista.es/mercados-cotizaciones/noticias/11959521/09/22/El-bono-de-EEUU-atraviesa-el-tercer-mayor-mercado-bajista-de-su-historia.html

El bono de EEUU atraviesa el tercer mayor mercado bajista de su historia



(...)"Sospecho que el mercado alcista de bonos que comenzó a mediados de la década de 1980 está llegando a su fin", resume Stephen Miller, gestor de GSFM. Y añade que los rendimientos no van a volver a los mínimos históricos vistos antes y durante la pandemia". Al final es la Reserva Federal quien mueve los intereses en la renta fija y no hay ningún interés de enviar al bono americano por debajo del 1%, con la actual inflación. La inflación elevada que enfrenta el mundo ahora significa que los bancos centrales no estarán preparados para volver a introducir el tipo de estímulo extremo que ayudó a enviar los rendimientos del Tesoro por debajo del 1%, dijo.

El aumento de tipos más pronunciado desde la década de 1980 ha agotado la liquidez del mercado, según JP Morgan Chase. "Los mercados de bonos y divisas han visto un deterioro más severo y persistente en las condiciones de liquidez este año en relación con otras clases de activos con pocas señales de reversión", escribieron estrategas de Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou en Londres. "Estamos en niveles extremos".

[Cadavre Exquis]

Google CEO Pichai Tells Employees Not To 'Equate Fun With Money' in Heated All-Hands Meeting
Posted by msmash on Friday September 23, 2022 @11:27AM from the closer-look dept.

As Google tries to navigate an unfamiliar environment of slowing growth, cost-cutting and employee dissent over cultural changes, CEO Sundar Pichai is finding himself on the defensive. From a report:

At a companywide all-hands meeting this week, Pichai was faced with tough questions from employees related to cuts to travel and entertainment budgets, managing productivity, and potential layoffs, according to audio obtained by CNBC. Pichai was asked, in a question that was highly rated by staffers on Google's internal Dory system, why the company is "nickel-and-diming employees" by slashing travel and swag budgets at a time when "Google has record profits and huge cash reserves," as it did coming out of the Covid pandemic. "How do I say it?" Pichai began his measured response. "Look, I hope all of you are reading the news, externally. The fact that you know, we are being a bit more responsible through one of the toughest macroeconomic conditions underway in the past decade, I think it's important that as a company, we pull together to get through moments like this."

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202209/1275972.shtml

Officials disclose that China's real estate bubbling trend has been reversed: report

Chinese officials said on Friday that the country's trends of real estate bubbles and financialization have been reversed materially, as efforts are launched to resolve risks in the property sector such as unfinished buildings, according to media reports.

A representative from the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) said that China will stick to the policy that houses are for living instead of for speculation and continue to improve the long-term mechanism of real estate financial management around the goal of "stabilizing land prices, housing prices and expectations," a report from the Shanghai Securities News showed.

The report also cited the representative as saying that regulators would reasonably meet the financing needs of the property market and prudently handle some of the risks exposed by leading real estate enterprises such as Evergrande.

On the other hand, regulators are taking moves to dissolve existing risks in the real estate sector. According to a report of 21jingji.com, the CBIRC is actively pushing for (companies) to guarantee delivering buildings by directing banks to actively participate in the research on a reasonable solution to capital gap, as well as do a good job in issuing qualified credit.

The CBIRC is also cooperating with other departments to introduce measures in a timely manner, improve the policy toolbox, support the construction and delivery of overdue residential projects through special loans from policy banks to safeguard the legitimate rights of house buyers, the report noted.

Besides, the 21jingji.com revealed that China Development Bank has paid China's first special loan for guaranteeing house delivery to Shenyang of Northeast China's Liaoning Province, marking an important step taken by regulators to help solve real estate loopholes in recent time, according to a report from yicai.com on Friday.

Authorities in China are rolling out methods to guarantee house delivery and prevent house speculation at a time after several issues drew public attention to risks in the real estate sector.

In July, around a dozen homebuyers in China announced that they won't pay their mortgages for apartments that are under construction because the houses are not built according to schedule. The projects are in multiple Chinese provinces including Henan and Jiangsu, according to media reports.

News was also circulating on domestic social media platforms like xiaohongshu.com that some residential projects by Evergrande in Shenyang halted construction in 2021.

Evergrande, once China's top-selling property developer, has been struggling under the weight of more than $300 billion debts. During a recent meeting, Evergrande's chairman Xu Jiayin said the company would strive hard to resume work/production and guarantee delivery of the houses.

[Derby]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/23/business/stock-market-today.html

Global Markets Tumble as Recession Fears Return

Central banks around the world raised interest rates this week to combat inflation. That’s raising concerns among investors about an economic slump.

Stocks nose-dived, government bond prices plummeted, the pound dipped against the dollar, oil prices slumped and cryptocurrencies wobbled on Friday as investors, already worried about rising interest rates and stubbornly high inflation, started quaking at the growing likelihood of a recession.



Their worries grew throughout the week as central banks around the world, from Sweden to Indonesia, once again wielded their blunt but powerful tool — interest rate increases — to combat inflation. Previous rate increases have already raised costs for consumers and businesses. Further ones could augur a period of higher unemployment and slower economic growth.

Investors don’t like that prospect. So they sold off shares on Friday, pushing the S&P 500 stock index down by as much as 2.9 percent, before a late rally left the index 1.7 percent lower at the close of trading.

The sell-off leaves the index just above its lowest point for the year in June, almost wiping out gains from a mini rally over the summer that came amid misplaced optimism that the worst was over for the market. The benchmark index is down more than 22 percent for the year, and on course next week for its third straight quarter of losses, the first time that has happened since the global financial crisis sent markets into a tailspin in 2008.(...)

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-23/deustche-bank-s-saravelos-calls-for-large-emergency-boe-hike

Deutsche Bank’s Saravelos Calls for Emergency BOE Hike

The Bank of England needs to unleash a sizable interest rate hike outside of its normal decision-making cycle in the wake of “historical drops” in the pound and gilts, according to George Saravelos, global head of foreign exchange research at Deutsche Bank AG.

In a note released during a rout in UK markets after Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng’s fiscal statement on Friday, Saravelos said the extraordinary step is needed to calm the markets. The view is his own, rather then the view of Deutsche Bank economists.(...)