Transición Estructural .NET

Brexit isn’t working, but re-joining the EU won’t solve the UK’s economic woes

(...)Our economic malaise is caused by a range of domestic policy failures, most of which are nothing to do with leaving the EU and all of which must be addressed. However, hard Brexit is not working. Ultimately, we need healthier and more cooperative relations with the EU and a deeper economic and political partnership. That will contribute to the economic growth we need to pay for much needed domestic reforms.

Hay que amputar o lo perderemos todo ... Grecia no queda tan lejos.

Los capitalistillos tienen que sentirse culpables y a pesar del cabreo inicial, bajar la cabeza, y los que no lo son tienen me senalarlos como tales con el dedo.

Hay que hacer una minimizacion de perdidas (lose - lose situacion).

En la UE y en buena parte de Occidente hay cosas que las Élites han borrado de  nuestro "espacio cognitivo".

Rising inflation sparks fears of hard landing for US economy

Increase in consumer prices prompts Wall Street sell-off as investors bet on aggressive Fed response

Hopes that the Federal Reserve can engineer a soft landing for the US economy took a hit on Tuesday when a crucial measure of inflation came in higher than forecast and triggered a sharp sell-off on Wall Street.

The consumer price index increased 0.1 per cent for August, above economists’ expectations for a 0.1 per cent drop. Most worryingly for policymakers, core inflation — which strips out volatile items like energy and food — rose by 0.6 per cent for an annual increase of 6.3 per cent, compared with 5.9 per cent recorded for July.

The figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics brought an end to a brief respite for Fed officials after July’s reading showed that prices had not risen compared with the prior month.

Wall Street was caught off guard by the hotter-than-expected inflation figures. The S&P 500 closed down 4.3 per cent, the worst performance since June 2020. The Nasdaq Composite, which is stacked with technology companies that are more sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations, ended Tuesday more than 5 per cent lower.



In government debt markets, the yield on the two-year US Treasury, which is more sensitive to interest rate expectations, surged by roughly 0.2 percentage points at 3.75 per cent, having traded at 3.52 per cent before the release of the inflation data.

The odds the Federal Reserve would opt for a full percentage point rate rise in September rose to roughly 30 per cent, according to CME Group, versus 0 per cent at the start of the week. Most economists are forecasting another 0.75 percentage point rate rise, which would lift the fed funds rate to a new target range of 3 per cent to 3.25 per cent.

Steven Blitz, chief US economist at TS Lombard, said Tuesday’s data combined with rising wages and a tight labour market meant the Fed was “not going to produce the soft-landing fairy tale”. He added: “The Fed has better odds of rolling a hard eight than engineering a soft landing.”

“We don’t really see anything in here that would make the Fed want to opt for a slower pace of rate hikes this month,” said Brian Coulton, chief economist at Fitch Ratings.

US president Joe Biden and his economic advisers had also been hoping for a reduction in the headline figure, going so far as to schedule a “celebration” of his recently passed Inflation Reduction Act, a package of healthcare and climate policies.

“Today offers proof that the soul of America is vibrant. The future of America is bright and the promise of America is real,” Biden said at the event on Tuesday. He later noted that petrol prices had dropped over the summer: “We’re making progress.”

Although the event was scheduled to trumpet the passage of the bill, the optics were quickly seized on by Biden’s opponents in the Republican party.

“You can’t make it up: Hours after this terrible inflation report, the White House is hosting an ‘inflation reduction’ celebration,” Mitch McConnell, the Senate minority leader, wrote on Twitter. “Democrats have spent our economy into disaster and now they’re partying while families pay. They could not look more out of touch if they tried.”

The jump in inflation came despite petrol prices tumbling in recent months. Earlier this summer, they topped a record $5 a gallon following a jump in oil prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The current national average is $3.70, according to the American Automobile Association.

In recent weeks, Fed policymakers have reaffirmed their commitment to bringing inflation under control and warned of the risks associated with allowing price pressures to persist.

Failing to bring down inflation, and allowing expectations of future price increases to spiral, was likely to mean more economic pain later on, chair Jay Powell and vice-chair Lael Brainard said last week.

Policymakers worry the downward trend in petrol prices is unsustainable — especially if energy prices jump later this year. Treasury secretary Janet Yellen warned of that possibility over the weekend, citing concerns about a widespread shortage across Europe as the bloc stops buying oil from Russia.

ECB’s Isabel Schnabel Foreshadows Rate Change at Sept. 8 Meeting

JACKSON HOLE ECB TALKING POINTS

*ECB’s German economist Isabel Schnabel raises concerns about current Euro levels
*Schnabel’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium comments sets hawkish tone
*Her comments portend a 75 basis point rate hike at ECB’s Sept. meeting. "Policy prescribes a forceful response as inflation remains elevated"

During the August Jackson Hole Economic Symposium members of the European Central Bank (ECB) expressed concerns about persistent inflation and the current monetary policy stance. In July, the Eurozone CPI reached an all-time high of 9.1% and the ECB raised interest rates (for the first time since 2014) by 50 basis points to 0.0%. Despite the hike, investors questioned if the ECB has lagged in its effort to curb inflation.

At Jackson Hole, Isabel Schnabel, a German economist serving as executive board member of the ECB since 2019, delivered a speech that surprised investors by clearly delivering an aggressive hawkish tone. In her discourse, she talked about “Monetary Policy and the Great Volatility” while other members questioned the levels of the EUR/USD.

EUR/USD is trading at 20-year lows. Its level below parity for the first time since 2002 may be a reflection of fear. It could also be hurting because of fragmentation risks or simply because of interest rate differentials. Schnabel, along with other ECB members, highlighted the risk of people beginning to doubt the long-term stability of the currency. Some suggested that while the ECB should not retreat too soon even if inflation slows, the weakness of the euro is a problem and at the next monetary policy meeting, a significant step should be considered.

EUR/USD MONTHLY CHART



A COMING EURO CRISIS?

Schnabel said that both the effects of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine are currently causing macroeconomic volatility but other factors could cause permanent shocks. She said that climate change, protectionist policies and the shift to greener technology may lead to persistent disturbances in the years ahead.

For example, climate change is causing extreme and disruptive weather events (like the drought in Europe) that have exposed the global economy and triggered greater volatility in output and inflation.

Likewise, protectionist policies have exacerbated the war’s repercussions on supply. Such policies affect the global value chains and in turn can cause misery and social unrest. Enhancing supply diversification and competition is key to making value chains more robust, she said.

CHANGES FROM CLIMATE & GREEN TECH

What’s more, the shift to greener technology, even though it could bring benefits in the long run, requires resources such as metals and minerals that are either constrained or often concentrated in a small number of countries. Such conditions could spur additional price pressures.

In the face of such risks, Schnabel talked about the role of fiscal and monetary policy. She said fiscal policy should promote productive investments to secure long-term prosperity. Regarding monetary policy, because it operates with long lags, central banks need to prove how determined they are to protect price stability, even if it requires a tradeoff between output and inflation.

On this note, in a previous article ECB's Lagarde Test , we highlighted that the ECB is in a difficult spot as it tries to balance the need for higher rates amid an already “growth-strapped” economy. But last weekend, the Jackson Hole Symposium, sent a strong message.

The effects of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine are currently and constantly suppressing the aggregate supply in a time of strong demand. Tight labor markets are also feeding the inflationary pressures. It remains uncertain how persistent inflation may be. Monetary policy needs to be forceful, even at the risk of lower growth, to minimize the risk of even worse economic outcomes in the future, Schnabel observed.

Pointing to surveys that are starting to show that price pressures have lowered trust in Central Banks, Schnabel said determined action is needed to prove commitment to securing price stability.

La banca afronta 10.000 millones más en activos 'tóxicos' por el alza de tipos

*El mayor esfuerzo financiero de empresas y familias agravará los impagos
*El euríbor ya roza el 2% y encarece en 2.000 euros al año la hipoteca media

Llegan curvas peligrosas para la economía y con ella, para el sector financiero. El vicepresidente del Banco Central Europeo (BCE), Luis de Guindos, ya avisó este verano a la banca de que no se deje cegar por el efecto de la subida de los tipos de interés en sus márgenes porque la morosidad va a subir, la economía se va a desacelerar y la inflación va a seguir siendo alta. De momento, el ratio de impagos de la banca sigue cayendo a mínimos de hace 14 años, con una ratio del 3,88% a cierre de junio, pero los expertos de S&P esperan que los problemas emerjan en algún momento y la ratio de activos improductivos (créditos dudosos más adjudicados, también llamados en el argot financiero activos tóxicos) suba del nivel del 6% en el que se situó a cierre de 2021 hasta niveles algo más cercanos al 7%, aunque sin llegar a tocarlo.

Esto supondría, atendiendo a los distintos datos publicados por el Banco de España, que estos activos apuntan a crecer según las previsiones señaladas en 10.000 millones de euros. La banca cerró diciembre de 2021 con unos activos dudosos de 52.500 millones de euros y unos adjudicados por 23.000 millones de euros, en total 75.500 millones. Este volumen supondría una ratio del 6% de improductivos sobre el total de sus activos y elevarlos a niveles de en torno el 6,8%, implicaría en torno a 10.000 millones de euros más.

A pesar de que las previsiones de supervisores y expertos apuntan a que el repunte de la morosidad está por llegar, en la actualidad es difícil atisbar este escenario con el constante camino de bajada que ha protagonizado, situándola en niveles de 2008, previos a la gran crisis financiera mundial. La morosidad ni si quiera se vio afectada en los peores momentos de la pandemia, en parte gracias a las ayudas puestas en marcha por el Estado como los créditos avalados por el ICO, las moratorias de préstamos o los ERTE que evitaron un repunte preocupante del desempleo.(...)

Santander, el banco europeo que más sube las provisiones por insolvencia antes de la crisis

Una veintena de bancos en Europa se preparan para los impagos con más dotaciones, en Santander suben un 80% respecto a diciembre

(...)El coste del riesgo ya está empezando a aumentar, apuntan, y probablemente continuará. Viéndose la mayor parte del impacto en 2023. Aunque el sentimiento económico se ha vuelto negativo, llevará tiempo que el impacto económico real se traslade a las provisiones para pérdidas crediticias, indican.

No suelo ocuparme del inmobiliario porque ya tenemos en el blog muy notables mentes para ello,  pero en esta ocasión quiero traer una pequeña anécdota de una de mis hermanas que acaba de vender en Las Rozas un modesto piso de unos 120m2 y su plaza de garaje en una urbanización  con piscina, etc. tras menos de tres semanas en el mercado a través de un agente inmobiliario.
No tocó el precio y de hecho lo subió un poco durante el cierre para que --tras los costes de transacción y los importantes costes fiscales-- le resultasen en el neto que ella quería recibir.  Mi hermana está de vacaciones y tuve que ver al Agente Inmobiliario en una ocasión para llevarle unos papeles del Registro.  Nos tomamos un café en una terraza y me comentó que había mucho movimiento de compra-venta y mucho más de alquiler. Así pues hay actividad incluso en estas tardes tórridas de verano. Por otra parte me sorprendió que el comprador aceptase que se le repercutieran unos 3000 eurillos . Mi ya alta admiración por las mujeres subió de grado ante la acerada determinación de mia piccola sorellina.

un montón de respuestas que he borrado para facilitar la lectura, se puede rastrear en el enlace a la cita