PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Invierno 2019

[panoli]

https://www.diariodesevilla.es/sevilla/gestoras-apartamentos-anuncian-ingresos-coronavirus_0_1441656316.html

Las gestoras de apartamentos de Sevilla anuncian una bajada de ingresos por el coronavirus
Empresas de un sector en auge advierten a los propietarios de una más que previsible reducción de la actividad en los próximos meses. Reconocen que ya hay un impacto directo en el turismo en la capital

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/c49c986e-5a42-11ea-a528-dd0f971febbc

The UK’s threat to walk out of EU trade talks is real, Wolfgang Münchau

London and Brussels have both turned these negotiations into a zero-sum game

The EU said loud and clear in February that it would not grant a Canada-style free trade agreement to the UK. The council of ministers has since hardened its position. I do not think the EU can easily climb down.

On the UK side, the signs are also clear. Boris Johnson began his premiership last summer by proroguing parliament. He went on to fight and win a general election.

The Conservative manifesto on which he has gained his mandate was explicit not only about going through with Brexit, but about establishing a distant future relationship with the EU.

After his election victory, Mr Johnson ruled out an extension of the negotiating deadline for a trade deal at the end of this calendar year. The UK parliament even passed legislation to that effect. He is, what’s more, backtracking on the level playing field commitment in the political declaration attached to the Brexit withdrawal agreement. He seems to be backtracking on the customs border in the Irish Sea as well. He got rid of a chancellor of the exchequer in Sajid Javid who would have constrained some of his fiscal plans to increase investment in pro-Brexit areas and support new high-tech industries. Both plans could easily run into conflict with EU rules on state aid.

Whatever you might think of Mr Johnson, this is a remarkably consistent story. So why would anyone think that he is bluffing?

Classic trade negotiations are win-win games. The negotiations that start on Monday will be different. Both sides have framed their objectives in terms of regulation, not of trade. The UK seeks maximum regulatory independence. The EU wants to prevent it on grounds of competition. If you take the politics out, it is not hard to construct a technical compromise. But there is no deal imaginable that would allow both sides to declare victory in terms of their stated goals. They have turned it into a zero-sum game.

Also consider another unusual aspect of this negotiation. The UK may be the smaller country, but it can secure its chief negotiating goal of regulatory independence unilaterally by walking out. The EU cannot do the same.

The political reality in the UK is that Mr Johnson has a House of Commons majority of 8O, and many of these MPs owe their political careers to him. There will be no rebellion. The worst to expect from the business lobby would be a raised eyebrow. British businesses are not going to stop Mr Johnson just as the German carmakers will not stop the EU.

Maybe we should start looking at second-best options: a no-deal outcome followed by a trade agreement a year or two later. This would clearly not be economically efficient. Both sides would incur the costs of no-deal first, the UK more than the EU. But at least we would find ourselves in a scenario where both sides stand to regain trade flows that had been lost in the rupture. The problem today is that the losses are hypothetical. In two years, they will have materialised. That could make it easier for the UK and the EU to calculate gains from a zero-tariff, zero-quota agreement.

This means that Europe as a whole, the UK included, should prepare for two foreseeable material economic shocks this year: a spread in the coronavirus and a WTO Brexit. I agree with Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, that the economic impact of Brexit on the UK is genuinely uncertain. Success or failure will depend on what the UK does with its new freedom.

The EU faces all these shocks, plus perhaps US tariffs on cars: the perfect storm for an economy dependent on exports and global supply chains. The EU cares deeply about institutions and laws, but lacks strategic thinking in virtually all policy areas. Brexit is not the biggest crisis for the EU, but it could end up as the wrong one at the wrong time.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-29/eu-executive-is-said-to-seek-more-control-over-climate-targets?srnd=premium-europe

EU Executive Is Said to Seek More Control Over Climate Targets

The European Union’s executive is seeking more powers to ensure the bloc delivers on the unprecedented Green Deal strategy for the region to become the world’s first climate-neutral continent by 2050.

(...)The draft law is set to be unveiled on March 4, allowing European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to make good on a pledge to propose the measure during her first 100 days in office. She put at the heart of her political agenda the environmental clean-up that will affect everything from energy to agriculture and transport and ensure the bloc stays ahead of other major emitters in cutting greenhouse gases.

[Derby]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/28/musk-says-chinese-economy-will-surpass-the-us-by-two-or-three-times.html

Elon Musk says Chinese economy will surpass US by 2 or 3 times: ‘The foundation of war is economics’

“A thing that will feel pretty strange is that the Chinese economy is probably going to be at least twice as big as the United States’ economy, maybe three times,” Musk said during a fireside chat with U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. John Thompson at the Air Warfare Symposium in Orlando, Florida.

“The foundation of war is economics,” Musk said. “If you have half the resources of the counterparty then you better be real innovative, if you’re not innovative, you’re going to lose.”

[Yupi_Punto]

Parece que di demasiado pronto por muerto a Biden:

Joe Biden arrasa en las primarias de Carolina del Sur

https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2020/03/01/5e5b52f5fdddffec2d8b461f.html

Esta semana se aclararan bastantes cosas:
3 de marzo (Súper Martes):
Primarias de Alabama
Asambleas de Samoa Americana
Primarias de Arkansas
Primarias de California
Primarias de Carolina del Norte
Primarias de Colorado
Primarias de Maine
Primarias de Massachusetts
Primarias de Minnesota
Primarias de Oklahoma
Primarias de Tennessee
Primarias de Texas
Primarias de Utah
Primarias de Vermont
Primarias de Virginia
Democrats Abroad

Pete Buttigieg se ha retirado. Y iba tercero. Habrá que ver si se une a algún candidato que sigue adelante con las primarias:

Pete Buttigieg se retira de las primarias demócratas tras una carrera histórica

https://elpais.com/internacional/2020/03/02/actualidad/1583106232_154583.html

Será un "todos contra Sanders".

[JENOFONTE10]

“The foundation of war is economics,” Musk said.

Fundamentos de guerra y economía, unidos desde la Antiguedad.

La Anábasis o Expedición de los Diez Mil […]
En ella se narran la expedición militar de Ciro el Joven contra su hermano el rey de Persia Artajerjes II y el posterior intento de retorno a la patria de los mercenarios griegos que estaban a su servicio, tras la derrota y muerte del mismo Ciro.
https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jenofonte#Obras

El Económico (Οικονoμικός) del escritor griego Jenofonte es un diálogo socrático que trata de la economía doméstica y la agricultura. Es una de las primeras obras de economía […]
https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jenofonte#Obras

Elon es un monstruo,  .

Saludos.

[novamas]

https://www.ft.com/content/c49c986e-5a42-11ea-a528-dd0f971febbc

The UK’s threat to walk out of EU trade talks is real, Wolfgang Münchau


The political reality in the UK is that Mr Johnson has a House of Commons majority of 8O, and many of these MPs owe their political careers to him. There will be no rebellion. The worst to expect from the business lobby would be a raised eyebrow. British businesses are not going to stop Mr Johnson just as the German carmakers will not stop the EU.

La mayor parte del PIB de UK se debe al sector servicios y especialmente los servicios financieros. Me sorprendería que las empresas financieras de UK se vayan a quedar cruzadas de brazos mientras pierden el acceso al mercado común europeo.

[alpha]

https://www.ft.com/content/c49c986e-5a42-11ea-a528-dd0f971febbc

The UK’s threat to walk out of EU trade talks is real, Wolfgang Münchau

London and Brussels have both turned these negotiations into a zero-sum game

The EU said loud and clear in February that it would not grant a Canada-style free trade agreement to the UK. The council of ministers has since hardened its position. I do not think the EU can easily climb down.

On the UK side, the signs are also clear. Boris Johnson began his premiership last summer by proroguing parliament. He went on to fight and win a general election.

The Conservative manifesto on which he has gained his mandate was explicit not only about going through with Brexit, but about establishing a distant future relationship with the EU.

After his election victory, Mr Johnson ruled out an extension of the negotiating deadline for a trade deal at the end of this calendar year. The UK parliament even passed legislation to that effect. He is, what’s more, backtracking on the level playing field commitment in the political declaration attached to the Brexit withdrawal agreement. He seems to be backtracking on the customs border in the Irish Sea as well. He got rid of a chancellor of the exchequer in Sajid Javid who would have constrained some of his fiscal plans to increase investment in pro-Brexit areas and support new high-tech industries. Both plans could easily run into conflict with EU rules on state aid.

Whatever you might think of Mr Johnson, this is a remarkably consistent story. So why would anyone think that he is bluffing?

Classic trade negotiations are win-win games. The negotiations that start on Monday will be different. Both sides have framed their objectives in terms of regulation, not of trade. The UK seeks maximum regulatory independence. The EU wants to prevent it on grounds of competition. If you take the politics out, it is not hard to construct a technical compromise. But there is no deal imaginable that would allow both sides to declare victory in terms of their stated goals. They have turned it into a zero-sum game.

Also consider another unusual aspect of this negotiation. The UK may be the smaller country, but it can secure its chief negotiating goal of regulatory independence unilaterally by walking out. The EU cannot do the same.

The political reality in the UK is that Mr Johnson has a House of Commons majority of 8O, and many of these MPs owe their political careers to him. There will be no rebellion. The worst to expect from the business lobby would be a raised eyebrow. British businesses are not going to stop Mr Johnson just as the German carmakers will not stop the EU.

Maybe we should start looking at second-best options: a no-deal outcome followed by a trade agreement a year or two later. This would clearly not be economically efficient. Both sides would incur the costs of no-deal first, the UK more than the EU. But at least we would find ourselves in a scenario where both sides stand to regain trade flows that had been lost in the rupture. The problem today is that the losses are hypothetical. In two years, they will have materialised. That could make it easier for the UK and the EU to calculate gains from a zero-tariff, zero-quota agreement.

This means that Europe as a whole, the UK included, should prepare for two foreseeable material economic shocks this year: a spread in the coronavirus and a WTO Brexit. I agree with Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, that the economic impact of Brexit on the UK is genuinely uncertain. Success or failure will depend on what the UK does with its new freedom.

The EU faces all these shocks, plus perhaps US tariffs on cars: the perfect storm for an economy dependent on exports and global supply chains. The EU cares deeply about institutions and laws, but lacks strategic thinking in virtually all policy areas. Brexit is not the biggest crisis for the EU, but it could end up as the wrong one at the wrong time.

Si la UE carece de pensamiento estratégico, no existe en el lenguaje modo de calificar la dirección que está tomando UK. A no ser que por pensamiento estratégico entendamos la eliminación de límites al hiperliderazgo de Boris Johnson.

The UK may be the smaller country, but it can secure its chief negotiating goal of regulatory independence unilaterally by walking out. The EU cannot do the same.

El columnista hace el mismo razonamiento que el que afirma que nada puede impedir a un imbécil suicida lograr su objetivo unilateral de matarse o lesionarse.

Por lo demás , es una pena, y solo queda esperar que los ingleses sensatos, que los hay, regresen en un futuro, con las orejas algo gachas, y que la UE actue sin ensañamiento ahora y luego (el ensañamiento será buscado por UK, dado que nada funciona mejor que el enemigo exterior).

La ultima liada parda en UK, un secretario de interior demandando en los tribunales a la ministra de interior, que la tomó con él por, entre otras cosas, negarse a despedir a alguien el dia 24 de diciembre.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/27/priti-patel-tried-to-have-home-office-official-sacked-on-christmas-eve

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/29/priti-patel-how-bullying-allegations-unfolded

Dicha ministra defensora a ultranza de los intereses de la industria del tabaco y el alcohol y despedida en 2016 por reunirse en secreto con Israel.

Los niveles de psicopatía son ya novelescos.

[mpt]

.... que la UE actue sin ensañamiento ahora y luego ...

Los niveles de psicopatía son ya novelescos.

actuar sin responsabilidad es el sino de estos tiempos de la autoestima alta gratis; no creo que sea sicopatia ajustar cuentas con irresponsables, macarras y faroleros; no les puede salir gratis, caña al mono

[Derby]

https://www.elconfidencial.com/mercados/2020-03-02/cotizaciones-bolsa-ibex35-crisis-coronavirus-rebote-mercado_2477128/

Las bolsas no reaccionan pese a los mensajes de los bancos centrales

[Derby]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-51706802

Post-Brexit US trade: UK talks plan insists NHS 'off the table'

The government has stressed that the NHS is "not on the table", as it publishes its negotiating strategy for post-Brexit trade talks with the US.

[Derby]

https://www.expansion.com/empresas/inmobiliario/2020/03/02/5e5d07b8e5fdea2b378b456d.html

Realia lanza su negocio de alquiler de pisos con las 85 primeras viviendas

A través de la filial Valaise, que ya tiene suelo para otros 195 pisos en renta y a la que seguirá sumando nuevos terrenos.

Realia ultima su entrada en alquiler de vivienda con el arrendamiento de los 85 primeros pisos, ubicados en Tres Cantos (Madrid) y a través de Valaise, la filial en la que canalizará este negocio.

La inmobiliaria controlada por Carlos Slim prevé arrendar estas primeras viviendas, de protección oficial, en el primer trimestre de este año, dado que ya están construidas y sólo están pendientes de obtener la licencia de primera ocupación.

La compañía tiene además "interés en seguir desarrollando e incrementando en los próximos ejercicios la inversión en alquiler residencial", un mercado que considera presenta "grandes expectativas de crecimiento".

[senslev]

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/observations/obs200301/

So although I expect dramatically greater market losses over the completion of this cycle – and safety nets remain essential – investors shouldn’t rule out a rather violent “clearing rally” in the coming days, to relieve this short-term compression, possibly including one or more daily advances on the order of 4-6% (yes, I mean 100-175 points on the S&P 500). Given the serious deterioration that we observe in our measures of market internals, my guess is that a clearing rally may be of the “fast, furious, prone-to-failure” variety. But in any event, buckle up.

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/5b5b8990-5a98-11ea-a528-dd0f971febbc

US supply chains and ports under strain from coronavirus


Warnings of disruptions heighten focus on China’s outsized role in global sourcing

The coronavirus outbreak is straining the just-in-time supply chains on which global business has come to depend, as US ports brace for cargo volumes to drop by 20 per cent or more in the first quarter of 2020.

Businesses that had started the year celebrating a truce in the tariff battle between Washington and Beijing are now struggling to secure goods ranging from car components to toys, reviving a debate about western companies’ reliance on China even as more new cases of the virus are reported outside the country than inside.

(...)Panjiva, the S&P-owned trade data company, reported that west coast ports are particularly exposed. The Port of Los Angeles, the busiest US port, saw cargo volumes fall by just over 5 per cent in January but expects a 25 per cent drop for February.

The impact on shipping “appears to be much worse” than during the Sars outbreak almost 20 years ago, Gene Seroka, the port’s executive director told CNBC.

Prolonged disruptions to Chinese manufacturing could be “crippling to global supply chains”, analysts at Citi warned, even as executives including Apple’s Tim Cook noted that capacity in Chinese plants had begun to pick up, bolstering their hopes of a rebound.

(...)Chinese factories loom large in automotive and electronics supply chains, but warnings of disruptions have come from a wide array of companies, from Best Buy, the gadget retailer, to Crocs, the shoe brand. Carmakers from Nissan to Fiat Chrysler have all seen disruptions, Panjiva noted, while some manufacturers such as Deere are turning to costly expedited shipping to avoid them.

Columbia Sportswear, a maker of rain jackets and hiking boots, said its results this year would be “significantly affected” because contract manufacturers have found it difficult “to source certain raw materials and to produce and fulfil finished goods in a timely manner”.

(...)The virus may be “adding to the urgency of switching away from China introduced by the trade war”, Panjiva analysts said, observing that Google and Microsoft were among the companies looking to switch manufacturing.

[Hynkel]

Continúa el Kübler-Ross bailando entre la fase de la ira y la negociación:

El peligro de limitar el precio del alquiler en las zonas equivocadas

Qué bien queda mencionar el sesgo del superviviente y quedar como un cultureta. Pueden estar tranquilas vuesas mercedes, Ábalos no tiene interés en limitar por ley los precios en los barrios de Salamanca o de Pedralbes.

Eso sí, que no falten las recetas de siempre:

Por otro lado, se apunta como causa del incremento de precios de alquiler a los salarios bajos, pero en realidad la clave está en la falta de ahorros para poder pedir una hipoteca.  En los barrios más humildes de las ciudades mucha gente destina más del 50% de sus ingresos en pagar el alquiler porque no tienen ahorros para pedir una hipoteca en la que destinarían en pagarla el 25% de sus ingresos. Es una espiral perversa porque cada vez hay más gente que solo puede alquilar por falta de ahorros, cada vez hay menos inmuebles en el mercado y eso hace que los precios de alquiler suban. Subir el sueldo no implica que la gente pueda ahorrar lo suficiente para salir del mercado de alquiler.

Cualquier cosa menos asumir que los precios son irrealmente altos y hay que bajarlos, ¿eh pillines?

Y si no, siempre queda el plan B:

Pero para bajar los precios no es preciso limitarlos sino que haya más oferta y eso se consigue con seguridad jurídica y ayudas a rehabilitación para que más gente saque sus inmuebles al mercado de alquiler.

Más construcción y más subvenciones a cargo del erario público. Si no se puede seguir extrayendo, pues que se construya y así se extrae por otra parte.