Hablemos de Europa

[muyuu]

La popularidad de Schlaeube en Alemania está en máximos.

[muyuu]

http://europaono.com/2015/07/03/zingales-greek-dilemma-ma-cedere-ai-ricatti-sempre-un-errore/

The Greek Dilemma / Ma cedere ai ricatti è sempre un errore
03/07/2015 / L. ZINGALES
Article written for the Italian Magazine L’Espresso.
Qui l’articolo originale sul sito de L’Espresso.

Sunday the Greeks will choose, but from what choices? Listening to Prime Minister Tsipras, they could say no to the humiliating conditions imposed by Troika or yes to eternal austerity. Listening to the opposition they could say yes to Europe and no to the Euro. Both affirmations are true, but they conveniently omit part of the truth, or rather what will truly happen after the victory of either front. Tsipras omits saying that if the No wins, less than a radical change in Europe’s behavior towards Greece, little can allow Greece to stay in the Euro, a result preferred by the majority of Greeks. The opposition omits saying that this plan of austerity pushes away the risk of bankruptcy, but doesn’t eliminate it. If they don’t change things, after this plan there will probably be another, and another still, because the Greek debt is not sustainable, less than a radical change in Europe’s behavior towards Greece.

It is clear that a Greek that wants to leave the Euro will vote No and one who is okay with the politics imposed by Europe will vote Yes. But these represent the minority. The majority of Greeks wants concessions from Europe, but also wants to stay in the Euro: how should they vote? What makes this referendum unusual is exactly this. In the choice between monarchy and republic, between abortion or not, the consequences of their choice is clear, because they are predetermined. In this referendum they are not. It is asked of citizens that they vote on a negotiation strategy and the main difference between the Yes front and the No one is in the hypotheses that are assumed about how Europe will react. Syriza’s belief is that Europe is more afraid of losing Greece than Greece is of losing Europe. If it were the case, a No victory would force Europe to yield in negotiations so as to avoid Greece’s exit. On the contrary, the beliefs of the opposition are that more is obtained from Europe with good manners than with bad. In this case, a Yes victory, with the probable fall of Tsipras, would bring along the formation of a new government, more in synchrony with Europe. Knowing that the survival of the new government depends on concessions that it manages to obtain from Troika, the latter would be essentially forced to make generous compromises.

But if we analyze the incentives of the involved parties, the two hypotheses are equally probable. If European leaders look at their short-term election incentives, there is no doubt that for them, in particular Merkel and Schäuble, it is more costly to give in to Greece’s blackmail than to be considered co-responsible for Greece’s exit from the Eurozone. In the first case, they would risk losing a considerable slice of their own electorate in favor of the AfD anti-euro, in the second case they wouldn’t (they could maybe even gain votes).

If instead European leaders look at a more long-term prospect, the result doesn’t change. With a long-term prospect, the negotiation between Europe and Greece must be analyzed even for the consequence it will have on the future negotiations with other countries. To give in to black mail would only increase the incentives to blackmail. For this – shortsighted or not – at this point European leaders cannot give into the blackmail from a Greece that votes No but also wants concessions.

This means that the Yes victory is granted? Absolutely not. My analyses assume that all the voters are perfectly informed and act in a rational manner. With only five days left of campaign, in a tense climate, with closed banks, both the hypotheses are not realistic. At the end the winner will be he who manages to dump responsibility for the current situation on the adversary: for Syriza banks are closed by fault of Europe, for the Yes front by fault of Syriza. I am only a fervent supporter of a more democratic Europe, where the people decide and not the bureaucrats in Brussels or Frankfurt, but is this true democracy?

[CHOSEN]

Me resulta curioso que la verdadera bomba de flotación al sistema de deuda (y clave de bóveda de todo el asunto) la que es referida a la Socieda Anónima, haya pasado bastante inadvertida

La deuda da poco para debatir.
Es un bocado minúsculo.
- Unos dicen que es impagable -rectas que nunca se tocan-
- Otros decimos que es pagable -rectas que se tocan en el infinito-.
En matemáticas dos líneas paralelas se definen como aquellas que se cortan en el infinito. Por chocante y antiintuitivo que sea, esto es así. Gracias a esto existe el láser y el transistor.
La existencia (matemática) del infinito no es moco de pavo.

El tema de la deuda pública, como las líneas paralelas, entra de lleno en esas cosas que no van a cambiar por mucho que nos empeñemos en llamarlas de una forma u otra.
Me remito al caso de Mali, Mozambique o Senegal. No se puede defender seriamente que la deuda griega es impagable cuando tenemos a estos países con una deuda brutal cualificada como pagable. Y no me refiero a lo que tu o yo creemos.
Me refiero a que esa deuda figura como pagable allí donde se identifica, sea la ONU, el FMI, Amnistía Internacional o la federación comercial de países africanos.
Si no la pueden pagar... eso es algo que ya no le importa a nadie. Hasta el infinito y mas allá, como las asíntotas. En cualquier caso será condonable (o no).
A eso es a lo que voy.

Creo que deberíamos ir ya entrando más en la dialéctica globalizadora y asumir las reglas del juego, que desgraciadamente son bastante diferentes de las que nos gustaría que fueran.

[muyuu]

Interesante que los pensionistas opten tanto por el "sí".

[Lego]

El factor generacional brillando como una supernova en esas tablas.

Sería genial tener la misma estadística de la opinión en los demás países de Europa.  Igual así se hablaba menos de "Grecia" y más de lo que en realidad está averiado.   

[sudden and sharp]

Pasaros por este hilo de bb.info si tenéis tiempo. es interesante:

http://www.burbuja.info/inmobiliaria/burbuja-inmobiliaria/showthread.php?t=667957

... para saber lo que es un patacón. (Nunca se sabe.  )

[CHOSEN]

PPCC siempre hablaba de los patacones y lecops.
Los patacones y asimilados ponen cachondos a los nacioncitas porque son sólo válidos en su regioncita de influencia. Donde ellos mandan.
Lo malo para el populacho es que Exxon y SONY no los aceptan 
Pondré un ejemplo que todos entenderemos: Paypal no admitiría pagos internacionales en patacones. Con ellos podríamos comprar lechugas en el mercado, pero sería difícil acceder a productos electrónicos y tecnología importada por ejemplo.

¿Would you rather have butter or guns?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guns_versus_butter_model

COSTE DE OPORTUNIDAD
Ahí lo dejo 

Lo digo para rebajar el nivel de entusiasmo que veo por la internet española, donde no es raro leer diagnósticos de barra de bar estilo "pues se crea otra moneda y ya está, sólo es un papel". Claro, luego vienen los referéndums, ponemos en la balanza... y ya está liada 

Que la gente se vea obligada a decidir sobre cuestiones para las que ni están preparadas, ni quieren estar preparadas no es buena noticia. ¿Quien en Grecia pedía un referéndum?
Los jubiletas lo que quieren es que no haya corralito.
Un buen gobernante tiene que saber lo que es mejor para su pueblo.
Preguntar a una manada de yonkis si se deben legalizar las drogas no es democracia. Es un suicidio social.

[CHOSEN]

Y lo que mas me jode, es que ahora el "gran estadista"  se pasa el día sacando pecho.

(click to show/hide)

El panorama político es desolador.

[R.G.C.I.M.]

A mi no me pareceria mal que hubiera un sistema de monedas simultaneas bien diseñado, pero el problema irresoluble es que habria que escalarlas segun proximidad o complejidad de los bienes y mercados que harian uso de ella.
Mi padre me contaba que en la galicia de hace no tanto, el dinero solo se cobraba y usaba para bajar a la ciudad a comprar zapatos o radios o cosas inaccesibles en los entornos rurales, y para todo lo demas, trueque.

Pero acabariamos por teneer una sociedad compartimentada en la que los pobres solo manejarian patacones y los ricos euros; con lo que los pobres o no podrian comprar mas que sandias y los ricos mas que ipones, o deberiamos intentar una equivalencia entre ambas monedas para poder comprar cosas de otro ambito.
Y eso ya esta inventado. Es el mercado de divisas.

Uno siempre es libre de comprar o aceptar corticoles o servilletas de bar firmadas si lo desea. Al fin y al cabo, la moneda fiduciaria solo depende de la confianza, no?

Queremos pichiqueiros!!!!!!


Sds.

[sudden and sharp]

A mi no me pareceria mal que hubiera un sistema de monedas simultaneas bien diseñado, pero el problema irresoluble es que habria que escalarlas segun proximidad o complejidad de los bienes y mercados que harian uso de ella.
Mi padre me contaba que en la galicia de hace no tanto, el dinero solo se cobraba y usaba para bajar a la ciudad a comprar zapatos o radios o cosas inaccesibles en los entornos rurales, y para todo lo demas, trueque.

Pero acabariamos por teneer una sociedad compartimentada en la que los pobres solo manejarian patacones y los ricos euros; con lo que los pobres o no podrian comprar mas que sandias y los ricos mas que ipones, o deberiamos intentar una equivalencia entre ambas monedas para poder comprar cosas de otro ambito.
Y eso ya esta inventado. Es el mercado de divisas.

Uno siempre es libre de comprar o aceptar corticoles o servilletas de bar firmadas si lo desea. Al fin y al cabo, la moneda fiduciaria solo depende de la confianza, no?

Queremos pichiqueiros!!!!!!


Sds.

El problema es que no te dan la opción de coger la pajita larga. Te dan la corta directamente. Y vale menos. (La diferencia es su ganancia, es el robo.)

[muyuu]

Greece has stockpiled enough reserves of fuel and pharmaceutical supplies to withstand a long siege, and has set aside emergency funding to cover all the country's vitally-needed food imports.
Yanis Varoufakis, the Greek finance minister, said the left-Wing Syriza government is still working on the assumption that Europe's creditor powers will return to the negotiating table if the Greek people don't agree to their austerity demands in a referendum on Sunday.
"Luckily we have six months stocks of oil and four months stocks of pharmaceuticals," he told The Telegraph.
Mr Varoufakis said a special five-man committee from the Greek treasury, the Bank of Greece, the trade unions and the private banks is working feverishly in a "war room" near his office allocating precious reserves for top priorities.
Food has been exempted from an import freeze since capital controls were introduced last weekend. Grains, meats, dairy products, and other foodstuffs should be able to enter the country freely, averting a potential disaster as the full tourist season kicks off.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11716318/Greeces-Yanis-Varoufakis-prepares-for-economic-siege-as-companies-issue-private-currencies.html

Greece's Yanis Varoufakis prepares for economic siege as companies issue private currencies
Greek finance minister says the country has a six-month stock of oil and four months of pharmaceuticals

Despite assurances, the crisis is likely to escalate fast if there is no resolution early next week. Businesses in Thessaloniki and other parts of the country are already creating parallel private currencies to keep trade alive and alleviate an acute shortage of liquidity.
Vasilis Papadopoulos, owner of the Maxi paper mill in Katerini, said the situation was becoming desperate for his industry. "I have enough raw materials to last until July 14. If I don't get any more pulp, I will have to close the factory. It is a simple as that. I have 183 employees and I will have to start laying them off," he said.
Mr Papadopoulis, who manufactures paper towels, napkins, and toilet paper - partially for export - said a consignment of 3,000 tonnes of pulp from Finland was stranded in the port of Salonica. "I can't pay the suppliers because the bank is blocked, so they won't release it," he said.
His firm has reached an accord with regional supermarkets to accept coupons or private scrip money in lieu of payment as soon as next week. His workers will then be able to use this paper as a parallel currency at the supermarket to buy goods.
In the meantime, people are trying to offload their bank holdings as fast as possible. (Electronic bank transfers within the country are still allowed). "Everybody is afraid of a haircut. Our clients are trying to pay us as much as possible, and transfer their problems to us. We, in turn, are paying everything in advance: taxes, gas, anything we can."
"It is like musical chairs because nobody wants to be the last one left standing with money in their account when the music stops. Before all this happened we were about to invest €5m to build new warehouses and buy a new cutting machine from Italy. It is totally suspended," he said.

[...]

vs

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/03/greece-economy-collapse-close-food-medicine-shortage

Greek economy close to collapse as food and medicine run short
Alexis Tsipras urges people to vote no in Sunday’s referendum as capital controls bite and vital tourism industry sees thousands cancel holidays in Greece

[...]

[muyuu]

Estados Unidos está detrás de la publicación del informe del FMI, que la Unión Europea intentó bloquear.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/03/us-eurozone-greece-imf-idUSKCN0PD20120150703

Exclusive: Europeans tried to block IMF debt report on Greece: sources

Euro zone countries tried in vain to stop the IMF publishing a gloomy analysis of Greece's debt burden which the leftist government says vindicates its call to voters to reject bailout terms, sources familiar with the situation said on Friday.

The document released in Washington on Thursday said Greece's public finances will not be sustainable without substantial debt relief, possibly including write-offs by European partners of loans guaranteed by taxpayers.

It also said Greece will need at least 50 billion euros in additional aid over the next three years to keep itself afloat.

Publication of the draft Debt Sustainability Analysis laid bare a dispute between Brussels and the Washington-based global lender that has been simmering behind closed doors for months.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras cited the report in a televised appeal to voters on Friday to say 'No' to the proposed austerity terms, which have anyway expired since talks broke down and Athens defaulted on an IMF loan this week.

It was not clear whether an arcane IMF document would influence a cliffhanger poll in which Greece's future in the euro zone is at stake with banks closed, cash withdrawals rationed and commerce seizing up.

"Yesterday an event of major political importance happened," Tsipras said. "The IMF published a report on Greece's economy which is a great vindication for the Greek government as it confirms the obvious - that Greek debt is not sustainable."

At a meeting on the International Monetary Fund's board on Wednesday, European members questioned the timing of the report which IMF management proposed at short notice releasing three days before Sunday's crucial referendum that may determine the country's future in the euro zone, the sources said.

There was no vote but the Europeans were heavily outnumbered and the United States, the strongest voice in the IMF, was in favor of publication, the sources said.

The Europeans were also concerned that the report could distract attention from a view they share with the IMF that the Tsipras government, in the five months since it was elected, has wrecked a fragile economy that was just starting to recover.

"It wasn't an easy decision," an IMF source involved in the debate over publication said. "We are not living in an ivory tower here. But the EU has to understand that not everything can be decided based on their own imperatives."

The board had considered all arguments, including the risk that the document would be politicized, but the prevailing view was that all the evidence and figures should be laid out transparently before the referendum.

"Facts are stubborn. You can't hide the facts because they may be exploited," the IMF source said.

IMF spokeswoman Angela Gaviria declined comment on this report.

POLITICALLY ANATHEMA

Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said in a blog post the IMF had upheld the Syriza party government's contention for the last five months that debt relief should be at the center of the negotiations.

"Puzzlingly, all this fine research by the good people at the IMF suddenly evaporates when IMF functionaries coalesce with their ECB and the European Commission colleagues in order to impose upon our government their chosen policies," he wrote.

The IMF argues that Greece's debt burden of nearly 185 percent of gross domestic product can only be made sustainable if the euro zone provides considerable extra financing through a mixture of new loans and a debt restructuring.

This is politically anathema in Germany, the biggest creditor country, and most other euro zone states, where no leader wants to explain to taxpayers that the money they lent to Athens will never be coming back.

Euro zone governments insisted in five months of talks this year that a lengthening of loan maturities and a reduction in interest rates would only be considered after Greece had implemented its commitments under a 2012 bailout deal, including painful structural reforms and public spending cuts.

In Brussels, the way the IMF communicated the findings was seen as confusing, misleading and politically unhelpful.

The European Commission had produced its own debt sustainability analysis, based partially on IMF data, which is less pessimistic in its scenarios and is one of the documents mentioned on the Greek referendum ballot paper.

Diplomats said the IMF's publication of the study was a way of making clear it would only be part of any future loan pact with Greece if the Europeans included debt relief in the mix.

Germany and its north European allies have said the IMF's presence is indispensable both to win parliamentary backing for aid for any euro zone partner, and to keep the European institutions honest. Berlin suspects the European Commission of being too soft on Greek efforts to wriggle out of reforms of pensions, taxation, public sector wages and labor law.

The European Central Bank, the third partner in what used to be called the "troika" of bailout enforcers, is also keen to keep the IMF involved.

[saturno]

Resumiendo:

-- La explicación al préstamo a 6 meses para Grecia es: Podemos

-- Puede que el derrumbe bancario de Grecia sea peccata minuta ante la perspectiva del derrumbe de las CajasAhorros alemanas que sospecho pagaban a los políticos con los intereses de lo prestado a Grecia. No es sólo la pasta. Es por la explosión política de Alemania por lo que va a salir de ahí.

En el gráfico que trajo Lego hace 3 días, se veia bien cómo los bancos alemanes eran los únicos que no habían reducido al mínimo su exposición a Grecia (cuando Francia que era el mayor prestamista, lo había limpiado todo en 4 años)
http://www.transicionestructural.net/index.php?topic=1984.msg135342#msg135342

Schaeuble tuvo problemas serios y le costó la cancillaría por temas de "donaciones encubiertas"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU_donations_scandal
¿Algún parecido?

[sudden and sharp]

Sí. Encuentro foreros muy parecidos en su alarmismo, estos días. En burbuja ya rozan hasta el delito.








Aquí NO lo voy a permitir.

[saturno]

Turquía ofrece su ayuda a Grecia, que acusa recibo oficial, y lo pone en estudio

http://www.liberation.fr/monde/2015/06/30/la-turquie-propose-a-la-grece-son-aide-pour-sortir-de-la-crise_1340180