Hablemos de Europa

[sudden and sharp]

Pasaros por este hilo de bb.info si tenéis tiempo. es interesante:

http://www.burbuja.info/inmobiliaria/burbuja-inmobiliaria/showthread.php?t=667957

... para saber lo que es un patacón. (Nunca se sabe.  )

[CHOSEN]

PPCC siempre hablaba de los patacones y lecops.
Los patacones y asimilados ponen cachondos a los nacioncitas porque son sólo válidos en su regioncita de influencia. Donde ellos mandan.
Lo malo para el populacho es que Exxon y SONY no los aceptan 
Pondré un ejemplo que todos entenderemos: Paypal no admitiría pagos internacionales en patacones. Con ellos podríamos comprar lechugas en el mercado, pero sería difícil acceder a productos electrónicos y tecnología importada por ejemplo.

¿Would you rather have butter or guns?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guns_versus_butter_model

COSTE DE OPORTUNIDAD
Ahí lo dejo 

Lo digo para rebajar el nivel de entusiasmo que veo por la internet española, donde no es raro leer diagnósticos de barra de bar estilo "pues se crea otra moneda y ya está, sólo es un papel". Claro, luego vienen los referéndums, ponemos en la balanza... y ya está liada 

Que la gente se vea obligada a decidir sobre cuestiones para las que ni están preparadas, ni quieren estar preparadas no es buena noticia. ¿Quien en Grecia pedía un referéndum?
Los jubiletas lo que quieren es que no haya corralito.
Un buen gobernante tiene que saber lo que es mejor para su pueblo.
Preguntar a una manada de yonkis si se deben legalizar las drogas no es democracia. Es un suicidio social.

[CHOSEN]

Y lo que mas me jode, es que ahora el "gran estadista"  se pasa el día sacando pecho.

(click to show/hide)

El panorama político es desolador.

[R.G.C.I.M.]

A mi no me pareceria mal que hubiera un sistema de monedas simultaneas bien diseñado, pero el problema irresoluble es que habria que escalarlas segun proximidad o complejidad de los bienes y mercados que harian uso de ella.
Mi padre me contaba que en la galicia de hace no tanto, el dinero solo se cobraba y usaba para bajar a la ciudad a comprar zapatos o radios o cosas inaccesibles en los entornos rurales, y para todo lo demas, trueque.

Pero acabariamos por teneer una sociedad compartimentada en la que los pobres solo manejarian patacones y los ricos euros; con lo que los pobres o no podrian comprar mas que sandias y los ricos mas que ipones, o deberiamos intentar una equivalencia entre ambas monedas para poder comprar cosas de otro ambito.
Y eso ya esta inventado. Es el mercado de divisas.

Uno siempre es libre de comprar o aceptar corticoles o servilletas de bar firmadas si lo desea. Al fin y al cabo, la moneda fiduciaria solo depende de la confianza, no?

Queremos pichiqueiros!!!!!!


Sds.

[sudden and sharp]

A mi no me pareceria mal que hubiera un sistema de monedas simultaneas bien diseñado, pero el problema irresoluble es que habria que escalarlas segun proximidad o complejidad de los bienes y mercados que harian uso de ella.
Mi padre me contaba que en la galicia de hace no tanto, el dinero solo se cobraba y usaba para bajar a la ciudad a comprar zapatos o radios o cosas inaccesibles en los entornos rurales, y para todo lo demas, trueque.

Pero acabariamos por teneer una sociedad compartimentada en la que los pobres solo manejarian patacones y los ricos euros; con lo que los pobres o no podrian comprar mas que sandias y los ricos mas que ipones, o deberiamos intentar una equivalencia entre ambas monedas para poder comprar cosas de otro ambito.
Y eso ya esta inventado. Es el mercado de divisas.

Uno siempre es libre de comprar o aceptar corticoles o servilletas de bar firmadas si lo desea. Al fin y al cabo, la moneda fiduciaria solo depende de la confianza, no?

Queremos pichiqueiros!!!!!!


Sds.

El problema es que no te dan la opción de coger la pajita larga. Te dan la corta directamente. Y vale menos. (La diferencia es su ganancia, es el robo.)

[muyuu]

Greece has stockpiled enough reserves of fuel and pharmaceutical supplies to withstand a long siege, and has set aside emergency funding to cover all the country's vitally-needed food imports.
Yanis Varoufakis, the Greek finance minister, said the left-Wing Syriza government is still working on the assumption that Europe's creditor powers will return to the negotiating table if the Greek people don't agree to their austerity demands in a referendum on Sunday.
"Luckily we have six months stocks of oil and four months stocks of pharmaceuticals," he told The Telegraph.
Mr Varoufakis said a special five-man committee from the Greek treasury, the Bank of Greece, the trade unions and the private banks is working feverishly in a "war room" near his office allocating precious reserves for top priorities.
Food has been exempted from an import freeze since capital controls were introduced last weekend. Grains, meats, dairy products, and other foodstuffs should be able to enter the country freely, averting a potential disaster as the full tourist season kicks off.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11716318/Greeces-Yanis-Varoufakis-prepares-for-economic-siege-as-companies-issue-private-currencies.html

Greece's Yanis Varoufakis prepares for economic siege as companies issue private currencies
Greek finance minister says the country has a six-month stock of oil and four months of pharmaceuticals

Despite assurances, the crisis is likely to escalate fast if there is no resolution early next week. Businesses in Thessaloniki and other parts of the country are already creating parallel private currencies to keep trade alive and alleviate an acute shortage of liquidity.
Vasilis Papadopoulos, owner of the Maxi paper mill in Katerini, said the situation was becoming desperate for his industry. "I have enough raw materials to last until July 14. If I don't get any more pulp, I will have to close the factory. It is a simple as that. I have 183 employees and I will have to start laying them off," he said.
Mr Papadopoulis, who manufactures paper towels, napkins, and toilet paper - partially for export - said a consignment of 3,000 tonnes of pulp from Finland was stranded in the port of Salonica. "I can't pay the suppliers because the bank is blocked, so they won't release it," he said.
His firm has reached an accord with regional supermarkets to accept coupons or private scrip money in lieu of payment as soon as next week. His workers will then be able to use this paper as a parallel currency at the supermarket to buy goods.
In the meantime, people are trying to offload their bank holdings as fast as possible. (Electronic bank transfers within the country are still allowed). "Everybody is afraid of a haircut. Our clients are trying to pay us as much as possible, and transfer their problems to us. We, in turn, are paying everything in advance: taxes, gas, anything we can."
"It is like musical chairs because nobody wants to be the last one left standing with money in their account when the music stops. Before all this happened we were about to invest €5m to build new warehouses and buy a new cutting machine from Italy. It is totally suspended," he said.

[...]

vs

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/03/greece-economy-collapse-close-food-medicine-shortage

Greek economy close to collapse as food and medicine run short
Alexis Tsipras urges people to vote no in Sunday’s referendum as capital controls bite and vital tourism industry sees thousands cancel holidays in Greece

[...]

[muyuu]

Estados Unidos está detrás de la publicación del informe del FMI, que la Unión Europea intentó bloquear.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/03/us-eurozone-greece-imf-idUSKCN0PD20120150703

Exclusive: Europeans tried to block IMF debt report on Greece: sources

Euro zone countries tried in vain to stop the IMF publishing a gloomy analysis of Greece's debt burden which the leftist government says vindicates its call to voters to reject bailout terms, sources familiar with the situation said on Friday.

The document released in Washington on Thursday said Greece's public finances will not be sustainable without substantial debt relief, possibly including write-offs by European partners of loans guaranteed by taxpayers.

It also said Greece will need at least 50 billion euros in additional aid over the next three years to keep itself afloat.

Publication of the draft Debt Sustainability Analysis laid bare a dispute between Brussels and the Washington-based global lender that has been simmering behind closed doors for months.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras cited the report in a televised appeal to voters on Friday to say 'No' to the proposed austerity terms, which have anyway expired since talks broke down and Athens defaulted on an IMF loan this week.

It was not clear whether an arcane IMF document would influence a cliffhanger poll in which Greece's future in the euro zone is at stake with banks closed, cash withdrawals rationed and commerce seizing up.

"Yesterday an event of major political importance happened," Tsipras said. "The IMF published a report on Greece's economy which is a great vindication for the Greek government as it confirms the obvious - that Greek debt is not sustainable."

At a meeting on the International Monetary Fund's board on Wednesday, European members questioned the timing of the report which IMF management proposed at short notice releasing three days before Sunday's crucial referendum that may determine the country's future in the euro zone, the sources said.

There was no vote but the Europeans were heavily outnumbered and the United States, the strongest voice in the IMF, was in favor of publication, the sources said.

The Europeans were also concerned that the report could distract attention from a view they share with the IMF that the Tsipras government, in the five months since it was elected, has wrecked a fragile economy that was just starting to recover.

"It wasn't an easy decision," an IMF source involved in the debate over publication said. "We are not living in an ivory tower here. But the EU has to understand that not everything can be decided based on their own imperatives."

The board had considered all arguments, including the risk that the document would be politicized, but the prevailing view was that all the evidence and figures should be laid out transparently before the referendum.

"Facts are stubborn. You can't hide the facts because they may be exploited," the IMF source said.

IMF spokeswoman Angela Gaviria declined comment on this report.

POLITICALLY ANATHEMA

Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said in a blog post the IMF had upheld the Syriza party government's contention for the last five months that debt relief should be at the center of the negotiations.

"Puzzlingly, all this fine research by the good people at the IMF suddenly evaporates when IMF functionaries coalesce with their ECB and the European Commission colleagues in order to impose upon our government their chosen policies," he wrote.

The IMF argues that Greece's debt burden of nearly 185 percent of gross domestic product can only be made sustainable if the euro zone provides considerable extra financing through a mixture of new loans and a debt restructuring.

This is politically anathema in Germany, the biggest creditor country, and most other euro zone states, where no leader wants to explain to taxpayers that the money they lent to Athens will never be coming back.

Euro zone governments insisted in five months of talks this year that a lengthening of loan maturities and a reduction in interest rates would only be considered after Greece had implemented its commitments under a 2012 bailout deal, including painful structural reforms and public spending cuts.

In Brussels, the way the IMF communicated the findings was seen as confusing, misleading and politically unhelpful.

The European Commission had produced its own debt sustainability analysis, based partially on IMF data, which is less pessimistic in its scenarios and is one of the documents mentioned on the Greek referendum ballot paper.

Diplomats said the IMF's publication of the study was a way of making clear it would only be part of any future loan pact with Greece if the Europeans included debt relief in the mix.

Germany and its north European allies have said the IMF's presence is indispensable both to win parliamentary backing for aid for any euro zone partner, and to keep the European institutions honest. Berlin suspects the European Commission of being too soft on Greek efforts to wriggle out of reforms of pensions, taxation, public sector wages and labor law.

The European Central Bank, the third partner in what used to be called the "troika" of bailout enforcers, is also keen to keep the IMF involved.

[saturno]

Resumiendo:

-- La explicación al préstamo a 6 meses para Grecia es: Podemos

-- Puede que el derrumbe bancario de Grecia sea peccata minuta ante la perspectiva del derrumbe de las CajasAhorros alemanas que sospecho pagaban a los políticos con los intereses de lo prestado a Grecia. No es sólo la pasta. Es por la explosión política de Alemania por lo que va a salir de ahí.

En el gráfico que trajo Lego hace 3 días, se veia bien cómo los bancos alemanes eran los únicos que no habían reducido al mínimo su exposición a Grecia (cuando Francia que era el mayor prestamista, lo había limpiado todo en 4 años)
http://www.transicionestructural.net/index.php?topic=1984.msg135342#msg135342

Schaeuble tuvo problemas serios y le costó la cancillaría por temas de "donaciones encubiertas"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU_donations_scandal
¿Algún parecido?

[sudden and sharp]

Sí. Encuentro foreros muy parecidos en su alarmismo, estos días. En burbuja ya rozan hasta el delito.








Aquí NO lo voy a permitir.

[saturno]

Turquía ofrece su ayuda a Grecia, que acusa recibo oficial, y lo pone en estudio

http://www.liberation.fr/monde/2015/06/30/la-turquie-propose-a-la-grece-son-aide-pour-sortir-de-la-crise_1340180

[lectorhinfluyente1984]

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/greece-debt-crisis-eurozone-by-jeffrey-d-sachs-2015-07

QUITO – The Greek crisis is a tragedy for the country and a danger for the world economy. Germany is demanding that Greece continue to service its debts in full, even though Greece is clearly broke and the International Monetary Fund has noted the need for debt relief. The collision of reality (Greece’s insolvency) with politics (Germany’s demands) was bound to create a disaster. And, indeed, it has: the shocking collapse this week of the Greek banking system.

Yet there still is a way out of this mess. Greece’s debt should be cut sharply, and the country should remain within the eurozone.

In negotiations with its creditors this spring, Greece recognized this, insisting that its debt be reduced. Germany refused. Though the United States and the IMF privately sided with Greece, Germany prevailed, as creditors usually do.

Yet creditors sometimes prevail to their own detriment; by pushing the debtor to the breaking point, they end up bringing about a complete default. Germany’s mistake this past week was to push the Greek economy – already in conditions rivaling those of the Great Depression – into a complete financial collapse.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble has a clear negotiating strategy, aimed at getting Greece to agree to leave the eurozone. Unfortunately for him, Greece does not want to exit, and it cannot be forced to do so under the treaties governing the European Union. What Greece wants is to remain in the eurozone, with a lower debt burden – a position that is both economically astute and protected by treaty.

Indeed, a euro exit would be remarkably costly for Greece, and would almost certainly create political and social chaos – and perhaps even hyperinflation – in the heart of Europe. The value of Greek residents’ savings would be slashed, as euros were suddenly converted into New Drachmas. The middle class would be eviscerated. And the currency conversion would not save the country one cent with regard to its external debt, which would, of course, remain denominated in euros.

Still, Greece’s debt burden is unsustainable. This week, Greece defaulted on its payments to the IMF, rightly choosing pensions over debt service. The country’s creditors should now negotiate a consensual debt reduction through some combination of lower (and fixed) interest rates, reduced face value of debt, and very long maturities.

There are plenty of precedents for such a course. Sovereign debts have been restructured hundreds, perhaps thousands, of times – including for Germany. In fact, hardline demands by the country’s US government creditors after World War I contributed to deep financial instability in Germany and other parts of Europe, and indirectly to the rise of Adolf Hitler in 1933. After World War II, however, Germany was the recipient of vastly wiser concessions by the US government, culminating in consensual debt relief in 1953, an action that greatly benefitted Germany and the world. Yet Germany has failed to learn the lessons of its own history.

I propose a four-step path out of the Greek crisis. First, I recommend that the Greek people give a resounding “No” to the creditors in the referendum on their demands this weekend.

Second, Greece should continue to withhold service on its external debts to official creditors in advance of a consensual debt restructuring later this year. Given its great depression, Greece should use its savings to pay pensioners, provide food relief, make crucial infrastructure repairs, and direct liquidity toward the banking system.

Third, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras must use his persuasive powers to convince the public, in the style of US President Franklin D. Roosevelt, that the only thing they have to fear is fear itself. Specifically, the government should make clear to all Greeks that their euro deposits are safe; that the country will remain within the eurozone (despite the false claims by some members of the Eurogroup that a no vote means a Greek exit); and that its banks will reopen immediately after the referendum.

Finally, Greece and Germany need to come to a rapprochement soon after the referendum and agree to a package of economic reforms and debt relief. No country – including Greece – should expect to be offered debt relief on a silver platter; relief must be earned and justified by real reforms that restore growth, to the benefit of both debtor and creditor. And yet, a corpse cannot carry out reforms. That is why debt relief and reforms must be offered together, not reforms “first” with some vague promises that debt relief will come in some unspecified amount at some unspecified time in the future (as some in Europe have said to Greece).

To be sure, in the Greek debacle, both sides have made countless mistakes, misjudgments, and misdeeds over the last decade, and even before. A country does not reach Greece’s parlous state without a generation of egregious mismanagement. But nor does a country go bankrupt without serious mistakes by its creditors – first in lending too much money, and then in demanding excessive repayments to the point of the debtor’s collapse. With both sides at fault, it is important for them not to lose the future by squabbling endlessly over the past.

Easing Greece’s debt burden while keeping the country within the eurozone is the correct and achievable path out of the crisis, and it can be accomplished easily through a mutual accord between Germany and Greece, to which the rest of Europe will subscribe. The result would be a win not only for those countries, but also for the world economy.

[saturno]

Galbraith

http://www.prospect.org/article/greece-only-no-can-save-euro

The stunned and furious reaction of the European leaders was, possibly, not entirely inauthentic. Perhaps they did not realize they were dealing with something not seen in Europe for some years: a political leader. Alexis Tsipras has only been on the international stage for a few months. He is brash, but charming. It would be easy for those as sheltered as Europe's present leaders to fail to figure him out—to fail to realize that like Varoufakis, Tsipras meant what he said.

[saturno]

http://blogs.mediapart.fr/blog/marie-laure-veilhan/040715/les-mots-de-tsipras-ce-soir-3-juillet-pour-le-non-la-foule-chante

Traduccion del discurso de Tsipras:

La Grèce, notre patrie, est, était et restera le berceau de la civilisation européenne. C’est ici, selon la mythologie, que Zeus a enlevé Europe, c’est ici que les technocrates de l’austérité veulent enlever à nouveau la démocratie ! Eh non ! Nous leur dirons NON dimanche ! Nous ne laisserons pas l’Europe aux mains de ceux qui veulent l’enlever à sa tradition démocratique, de ses acquis démocratiques, de ses valeurs fondatrices, de la démocratie, de la solidarité et du respect mutuel.


Grecia nuestra patria ha sido, es y permanecera como la cuna de la civilización europa

Es aquí, dice la mitología, que Zeus raptó a Europa, aquí que los tecnócratas de la austeridad quieren raptar de nuevo la democracia.


¡Pues no! Y este domingo también diremos NO
No dejaremos Europa a quienes quieren raptarla a su tradición, logros democráticos y sus valores fundadores: democracia, solidaridad y respeto mútuo

[saturno]

http://www.elmundo.es/economia/2015/07/04/5596f1b3ca47412d048b459e.html

Q.Aunque no haya encuestas, en las calles de Atenas lo que se siente es que la gente cada día que pasa tiene más miedo.
   
Sí, así es. Lo que están haciendo con Grecia tiene un nombre: terrorismo.


Q-¿De verdad piensa que lo que están haciendo con Grecia es terrorismo?

    Por supuesto que lo pienso: es terrorismo. ¿Por qué nos han forzado a cerrar los bancos? Para insuflar el miedo en la gente. Y cuando se trata de extender el terror, a ese fenómeno se le llama terrorismo. Pero confío en que el miedo no gane.

Q-¿Qué piensa de Podemos, el equivalente español de Syriza?
    Creo que en toda Europa se necesitan partidos como Syriza y Podemos, partidos críticos con el sistema pero al mismo tiempo europeístas y democráticos. Los que nos detestan quieren hacernos pasar por antieuropeístas, pero no, no es verdad, no lo somos.

Somos necesarios.

Bueno, también lo dijo el papa:
http://ppcc-es.blogspot.fr/search?q=terrorismo

[sudden and sharp]

Interesante artículo. Pongo el último párrafo:

La política precipitada de Rajoy pone de manifiesto que Montoro se equivocó al dejar la rebaja para el ejercicio siguiente, como advertimos en elEconomista. Pero además, abonarla en dos tramos aminora la percepción del ciudadano. En un país como España, donde la clase alta (léase con ingresos superiores a 60.00 euros anuales) escasea, el peso de la tributación descansa en las clases medias, que verán reducida sólo un punto su tributación. El efecto se diluirá como un azucarillo. No creo que sólo con iniciativas así pueda recuperar el electorado perdido. Tanto Tsipras como Rajoy son rehenes de los errores de sus decisiones. Como gritó Julio César antes de cruzar el río Rubicón para atacar a la Galia: Alea jacta est , la suerte está echada. Ya es imposible dar marcha atrás.

http://www.eleconomista.es/opinion-blogs/noticias/6844977/07/15/Alea-jacta-est-.html#.Kku89LOpkogHUvj