Hablemos de Europa

[muyuu]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11713794/Greece-IMF-debt-restructuring-eurozone.html

Europe's creditor powers must finally face reality: Greece needs mass debt relief now

Without a major effort to write off €330bn in loans, Greece's battered economy will remain a financial black-hole for its creditors

The International Monetary Fund lit the touch paper this week on a subject that has inflamed tensions between Greece and its international lenders: debt relief.
Three days before Greeks were due to go to the polls to say Yes or No to a now defunct bail-out deal, the IMF released its "debt sustainability analysis" for the country.
The 24-page document was made public after after leaked versions had made appearances in German newspaper Sueddeutsche Zeitung and The Guardian.

Its findings reveal the frightening depth of country's financial woes.
Greece is awash with debt.
Without a major effort to write off €330bn in loans, the battered economy will remain a financial black-hole for its creditors, locked out of financial markets and ever-reliant on its paymasters to stop it from going bust.

Despite making no formal policy prescriptions, the analysis lays bare the colossal debt servicing task facing Greece.
Should the economy manage to grow at close to its historical long-term average of 1pc a year, Greece’s debt ratio would still top 100pc of GDP in three decades.
In the more realistic case that growth is 1pc lower than forecast, but is coupled with an ambitious budget surplus of around 2.5pc of GDP, Greece would still require a total write-off of its entire first bail-out package worth €53.1bn.
To alleviate the burden, the Fund suggests taking bold measures to impose a 20-year moratorium on repayments and extend maturities by another 40 years. They are extreme actions in economy which will still be paying back its official creditors in 2057.

[graph] Greece will be paying back its creditors for the next 42 years


With its warnings of depleted bank reserves, weak governance, and political uncertainty, the IMF's account reads more like the analysis of a war-ravaged economic basket-case than the prospects for a developed economy in one of the richest economic zones in the world.
The message is crystal clear: Greece will never prosper until it is unburdened from a huge portion of its crippling debt weight.
It is an issue that is at the heart of the division between Greece and its creditors, and has caused internecine in-fighting among its paymasters.

Institutional in-fighting

The IMF's intervention was a remarkable public admission that more debt and more austerity will lead Greece to the path of economic ruin.
Its findings "blew apart any notion that [the IMF] and the eurozone shared the same standpoint on debt," says Gabriel Sterne of Oxford Economics.
Restructuring is still the taboo that dare not speak its name in the eurozone.

Pointedly, the IMF presaged its findings with a note saying they had "not been agreed with the other parties in the policy discussions" hinting at the dissent they would find in Brussels, Berlin and Frankfurt.
“It’s very hard for European leaders to say to their taxpayers: “That money of yours that we told you we would get back, well I’m afraid it's gone,”" says Jonathan Loynes, chief European economist at Capital Economics.
"If creditors blink now, other member states will rightly ask why they have to continue paying their loans back,” adds Mr Loynes.
Such was the sensitivity of the findings, European officials tried to block the analysis from ever reaching the public domain.
Having failed, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the austere president of the eurozone's finance ministers, was quick to discredit the IMF, accusing the Fund of using outdated models of Greece's public finances.
"Facts are stubborn. You can't hide the facts because they may be exploited," one IMF official told Reuters.
They are facts which have emboldened prime minister Alexis Tsipras ahead of this weekend's momentous referendum.
Mr Tsipras took to national television on Friday to demand the IMF's recommendations finally be part of any deal to keep his country in the eurozone, demanding €80bn be wiped off the its liabilities.

   

@tsipras_eu
   Per the IMF, the only way #Greece's debt can be sustainable is with a 30% haircut & a 20 year grace period. #Greferendum #dimopsifisma #OXI

After months in which European leaders have sought to kick the issue into the long grass, restructuring is now firmly part of the Greek conversation again.
It is a welcome rallying cry for the embattled Leftist government, despite coming "five years too late for Greece", says Mr Sterne.
"In coming out firmly in favour of debt relief, the IMF have finally asserted an independent and balanced voice," he says.

Others are less forgiving on the institution's bungling of the Greek crisis.
Former IMF bail-out chief Ashoka Mody said the analysis further exposed that lenders had not been "negotiating in good faith" with Greece by refusing to countenance debt relief over the last five months. Mr Mody supports a bolder programme of debt forgiveness which would wipe out 50pc of Greece’s liabilities.

An institution in crisis

The week's developments have also revealed the IMF as an institution wracked by internal conflict over how best to handle its largest ever debtor.
"Never before has a veritable institution advocated policies that clashed so mercilessly with its own research," wrote Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis following the IMF's debt analysis.
On paper, the recommendations for debt relief and reduced austerity "suddenly evaporate when IMF functionaries coalesce with their ECB and the European Commission colleagues in order to impose upon our government their chosen policies," said Mr Varoufakis.

The Fund is having trouble following its own advice. Its research department is a cheerleader for mass debt relief, but its board refuses to accept that it may not be paid back in full.
Christine Lagarde, who on the same day the report was published, took to the airwaves to repeat that she wanted every penny of the €21.1bn in outstanding obligations still owed to her by Greece.
"The IMF is the only institution involved in Greece that has not provided any debt relief to date" says Guntram Wolff, director of the Bruegel think-tank.
"The mismatch between action and rhetoric is the biggest on the Fund's side. The IMF's negotiating stance shows they are not willing to concede anything to the Greeks,” says Mr Wolff.
A climbdown from Ms Lagarde's office is even less likely after the Leftist Syriza government crossed the rubicon and became the first developed country in the IMF's 71-year-history to default on the world's "lender of last resort" this week.
Yet even in the unlikely scenario that restructuring is finally accepted by its fellow lenders, the IMF’s forecasts are still an overly optimistic account of Greece’s economic woes.

[graph] debt ratio

Mr Wolff calls the ambition to hit a medium-term surplus target of 3.5pc as "outlandish" in an economy which has suffered on a scale which surpasses the 1930s Great Depression.
Yet these seemingly impossible goals have long been built into the IMF's calculations for Greece. The IMF still presumes the economy will move back from 0pc growth this year, to 2pc by 2016.
Should creditors finally be forced to swallow the bitter pill of a Greek debt write-off, it will be bigger and more painful than even the IMF can imagine.

[muyuu]

Los puntos de vista del Reino Unido bastante bien representados en "Question Time":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bcoD1Lkbi3k

Aparte de UKIP, en el Reino Unido la actitud de desprecio hacia los griegos "que se lo han buscado" es mucho más minoritaria que en Alemania o en España.

[mpt]

nos tienen derrotados, por inundacion de informacion; no informacion irrelevante, porque en los detalles esta como se reparten las cargas de ir a menos, pero esos arboles nos ocultan el bosque de hacia donde vamos;



supongamos que en 2000-2002, con el achuche de la punto.com, se renuncia a arrancar la burbuja de deuda y este ultimo empujon de la burbuja de ladrillo (que en españa ha sido especialmente virulenta); asumiendo entonces lo inevitable y despidiendose de los eres fantasiosos, de las exenciones por inversion en el exterior (la españa champions de zp), del dinero es del viento, ...... ¿donde estariamos?

(el otro dia lei un post estupendo (o en un articulo periodistico, no recuerdo) que narraba las bofetadas que se llevarton los criticos al empujon de la deuda, tanto aqui en el BCE como en muchos otros sitios e instituciones; una pena, no logro encontrarlo para enlazarlo)

donde estamos si lo vemos



especialmente las calaveras de los que van perdiendo de manera clamorosa, asi como las limosnas que los nuevos partidos quieren repartir, pero nada se ve de que quieran entrar a fondo en el reparto de las cargas dolorosas;

en ese ejercicio de imaginacion se puede realizar una extension poco ortodoxa; se puede considerar que lo sucedido ha sido un episodio de "helicoptero bernake":
- se trae dinero del futuro que se difunde por todo el sistema (incluyendo visillos, silestone y tetas de silicona, mas ongs, viajes al quinto mundo, .....)
- se socializan las deudas, pasandolas a bancos y luego a bancos centrales y luego estados y luego se hacen quitas)

en fin, un lio, no me llegan las neuronas; pero los daños estan muy mal repartidos y todo parece indicar que el apoyo a las castuzas, a los señores de la guerra locales, el "sentido de estado (occidental y colonialista)" va a seguir continuando; que lo van a volver a intentar y que en el mientras tanto un poco de "estados fallidos" atenuara el dolor de la MN (antes ex-clase media) y ayudara a inclinar la balanza a favor de los señores de la guerra occidentales;

y resumido: que se sabia y que no veo a nadie arrepentido, mas bien veo a todos con ganas de seguir la jugada, incluido syriza y "podemos"; nadie teme a la deuda futura, nadie se quiere deflactar

que aqui esta claro que a quien le toca es a los que consumen el presupuesto de la universidad, ¿los profesores y sus edificios de marmol?
http://www.eldiario.es/sociedad/universitario-espanol-precios-niveles-Europa_0_405259863.html

o aqui es a los agarrados a sus deficitarias sillas -tan deficitarias que parecen el AVE-, que solo se van si se jubilan y lo que tocaria en algun caso es "cerrar y tirar la llave"
http://www.valenciaplaza.com/ver/160227/paz-olmos-traiciona-pp.html

pero nadie piensa en cerrar, al contrario

http://www.valenciaplaza.com/ver/160280/puig-dispuesto-a-abrir-canal-9-el-proximo-9-doctubre.html

¿y el senado?

http://www.valenciaplaza.com/ver/160296/ppcv-estudia-lunes-designar-senadores-fabra-barbera.html

http://www.valenciaplaza.com/ver/160230/ferran-martinez--ana-bedrina-senador-territorial.html

[saturno]

OXI

! No longer available	Small | Large

[saturno]

Azul=OXI
Amarillo?= NAI

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CJEk6yLWoAAP5Hz.png



http://pbs.twimg.com/media/CJEk6yLWoAAP5Hz.png

[lectorhinfluyente1984]

Yo cuando era pequeño y en el cole estudiábamos la historia de Europa me parecía un sinfín de guerras, hambre y destrucción. En comparación parecía todo el "presente" una balsa de tranquilidad y progreso, o al menos algo compatible con el paradigma del Pogreso.

Para mis adentros pensaba "seguro que antes de morir me tocará vivir alguna guerra, no es posible tantos siglos de muerte y que tenga tanta suerte de que todo vaya requetebién durante mi vida".

Y no me equivocaba. Lo que no supe ver es que las nuevas guerras son económicas - y que de hecho ya se estaba larvando.

De todas formas, aún estamos a tiempo de ver sangre (más) de cerca (como en Ucrania). Espero que no...

[muyuu]

El RBS estima el coste del Grexit en 227 millardos, sin contar con los riesgos geopolíticos y de contagio.

El coste de la restructuración para hacer la deuda griega sostenible lo estiman en 140 millardos.

The cost of Grexit? €227bn, according to analysts at RBS. Alberto Gallo and the macro credit research team write:

Quote We estimate the minimum direct financial cost for creditors at around €227bn (2.3pc of Eurozone GDP). This is higher than the cost of a one-off haircut to make Greek debt sustainable (€140bn) and excludes full contagion costs, geopolitical costs from potentially losing Greece as EU and NATO members, and the impact of creating a Euro-exit precedent. For Greece, the economic costs would be dramatic: GDP growth could fall by over 6pc, based on past exit scenarios in other countries. Unemployment and inflation would rise substantially.
The worst scenario could become a humanitarian crisis, where IOUs would discourage imports of key goods and social unrest could follow.

[muyuu]

Podría ir en el hilo de infográficos pero siendo específico creo que aquí va mejor.

[mpt]

fue bonito mientras duro

ademas era multibonito, en vez de arreglar el corral de las vacas se arreglaban los visillos, el mecanismo se realimentaba positivamente y sostenia el "positivismo" y el "poner en valor";

pero ahora se ha dado la vuelta y es multinegativo, se realimenta positivivamente en su ir a menos; a lo que se puede añadir que hay que pagar los destrozos pasados, no solo deuda -que se puede socializar en plan helicoptero bernake y pagamos todos-, es que ademas hay que pagar el sostenimiento de "parques y jardines" (o de trenes, o aeropuertos, o centros explicativos, o ...); pero es que ademas seguimos generando deuda y eso sin contar las mentiras de pib o las deudas que graciosamente "no cuentan"; y para colmo las condiciones macro mundiales que nos han traido hasta aqui siguen vigentes y empujando;

esta claro que como un pepito que se tiro a la hipoteca salvajemente, los gobernantes griegos lo hicieron muy mal, se tiraron de cabeza al gasto, incluido tanques, como aqui se tiraron al gasto de la españa champions y sus empresones;

[namreir]

Os paso un mapa demoledor sobre la evolucion demografica de europa

[saturno]

OXI ganador en las estimaciones tras cierre de urna

Para recuento oficial:
http://referendum2015.dolnet.gr/default.aspx


(Final -- Incorporated: 100 %):

Answer    %    Votes
[NOT ACCEPTED/NO]    61.31    3,558,450
[ACCEPTED/YES]       38.69    2,245,537

[sudden and sharp]

A ver que pasa ahora.

[sudden and sharp]

Escenarios:

A "No" Victory Appears Probable: What Happens Next According To Deutsche Bank

    N1 – Soft deal: The most unlikely scenario is that the euro-area partners offer a much softer programme to Greece.
    N2 – Default-and-stay: Moderately less unlikely is a scenario where Greece defaults but stays in the euro thanks to a direct recapitalisation of Greek banks by the euro-area partners, with the Greek government using only domestic resources for the country’s fiscal needs.
    N3 – New deal: The third scenario is one in which the rising economic and political cost of a closed banking system results in the Syriza government being replaced by a new government of national unity and a new deal with creditors being reached.
    N4 – Grexit: In our view, Grexit and Scenario N3 are the most likely – with about equal probabilities.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-05/no-victory-appears-probable-what-happens-next-according-deutsche-bank

[El afilador]

OXI ganador en las estimaciones tras cierre de urna

Para recuento oficial:
http://referendum2015.dolnet.gr/default.aspx


(Parcial 19:40):
[NOT ACCEPTED/NO]    60.32    497,396
[ACCEPTED/YES]       39.68    325,359

Estimado saturno; no sé si va a ser divertido o revolucionario. Pero entretenidos estamos un rato.

Los del Bundesbank ya se ponen la venda por si hay una salida a lo grande. Me cuesta tanto creer en un descalabro épico que se lleve a la UE por delante...

Ahora veamos qué tenía en mente el resto de Europa.

[lectorhinfluyente1984]

Escenarios:

A "No" Victory Appears Probable: What Happens Next According To Deutsche Bank

    N1 – Soft deal: The most unlikely scenario is that the euro-area partners offer a much softer programme to Greece.
    N2 – Default-and-stay: Moderately less unlikely is a scenario where Greece defaults but stays in the euro thanks to a direct recapitalisation of Greek banks by the euro-area partners, with the Greek government using only domestic resources for the country’s fiscal needs.
    N3 – New deal: The third scenario is one in which the rising economic and political cost of a closed banking system results in the Syriza government being replaced by a new government of national unity and a new deal with creditors being reached.
    N4 – Grexit: In our view, Grexit and Scenario N3 are the most likely – with about equal probabilities.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-05/no-victory-appears-probable-what-happens-next-according-deutsche-bank

No me extraña que en Deutsche Bank estén trabajando un Domingo... con tantos trillions $ en derivados de exposición a toda clase de porquerías...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OZPmnCC2d8U