Hablemos de Europa

[muyuu]

5 de 200 en la encuesta, mientras que el favorito tenía 44.

[muyuu]

Nea Demokratia 39.7%
Syriza 31.6%

(al 75% escrutado)

[muyuu]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-07/lira-plunges-as-traders-fret-over-the-central-bank-s-credibility

Lira Drops as Traders Fret Over Turkish Central Bank Credibility

7 July 2019, 20:14 BST


The lira slumped more than 3% after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s shock decision to replace the country’s central bank governor fueled concern the regulator will lower borrowing costs by more than expected.

The currency was quoted at 5.81 per dollar as of 3.06 a.m. in Hong Kong, paring its world-beating advance over the past two months. It closed Friday in New York at 5.628 per dollar.

Turkey's New Central Bank Governor Murat Cetinkaya Presents Inflation Report
Murat CetinkayaPhotographer: Kerem Uzel/Bloomberg
Erdogan used his executive powers to dismiss Murat Cetinkaya over the weekend, potentially undermining the regulator’s independence just weeks before it’s scheduled to decide on policy. Deputy Governor Murat Uysal was named as a replacement.

During a closed meeting after the decree came out, Erdogan told lawmakers from his ruling party that politicians and bureaucrats all need to get behind his conviction that higher interest rates cause inflation, according to an official who was present. He also threatened consequences for anyone who defies the government’s economic policies, the official said.


The decision also gives bears the justification they needed for keeping bets against the currency at the highest in the world, in spite of the lira’s rally since early May, according to risk reversals.

“It’s undoubtedly bad news for Turkish assets,” Nigel Rendell, a London-based senior analyst at Medley, said on Saturday. “Once again Erdogan is interfering in the operation of the central bank because he thinks he knows best, which he doesn’t.”

------

[muyuu]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-deutsche-bank-strategy-idUSKCN1U20J2

Deutsche Bank to cut 18,000 jobs in 7.4 billion euro overhaul

[...]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-deutsche-bank-strategy-growth-analysi/after-deutsche-bank-cuts-where-will-the-growth-be-idUSKCN1U20OW

After Deutsche Bank cuts, where will the growth be?

LONDON/FRANKFURT (Reuters) - For Deutsche Bank chief executive Christian Sewing, shrinking the group’s investment bank will be the relatively easy - if expensive - part of his restructuring plan.

[...]

[muyuu]

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1147878009870983169.html

[graphs]

[...]

So, the knock on effects are all lining up to push one bank after another of the Cliff of Death...and there ain't a thing the ECB can do about it, as they have only one mandate - inflation. They HAVE TO cut rates. And this is why Christine Lagarde has been brought in...
The ECB is going to need to become political. It is going to have to rescue an EU-wide banking system and put the banks into state hands and buy the extra gov debt and they are going to need to force fiscal reforms and massive fiscal stimulus. They will use the situation to force
through tighter EU fiscal consolidation, maybe even leaving some nations behind. Lagarde is perfect for this. It's what the IMF does. She is also a lawyer and a politician. The problem is, this stuff takes time. The ECB will buy any credit instrument to avoid capital
markets seizing up but shareholders are going to sense an equity wipeout over the debt holders, so equities bear the brunt of it (and bunds go more negative). The dollar will get bid as the $ funding crisis can not easily be solved by the ECB and lending at the margin tightens
And a strong dollar would destroy the banks and the global economy. It's all very circular and there are very few circuit breakers. Throw in heightened trade wars between EU/US (highly likely) and China/EU/US and you have a very big issue. And my problem with all of this
It's that the probability is much much higher than I'd like. And that is the reason to own bonds, dollars, bitcoin and gold. The former two are the beneficiaries of current needs, and the latter two are the high-gamma options on this escalating into an extreme policy event.
This all needs to be watched very closely. I am concerned that the summer will end with a building sense of crisis. You can already see the signs as liquidity issues come to the fore.. (Woodford, H20). None of this is a certain but the odds are exploding.
End.

[muyuu]

Boris vs Hunt ITV debate https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOLqmNaA_jA

[ERB]

Que digo yo, revisando los informes oficiales de la UE, que vaya casualidad que justo nos encaminamos hacia “una nueva crisis” en el 2020. Y ya conocen el dicho: Una crisis es una oportunidad…

Bruselas, 3.3.2010

E U R O P A 2 0 2 0
Una Estrategia para un crecimiento inteligente, sostenible e integrador
http://www.ciencia.gob.es/stfls/MICINN/Internacional/FICHEROS/Actuaciones_Europeas/Europa_2020.pdf
+
C. Posible evolución de la unión económica y monetaria
Una vez superada la crisis económica y financiera, la Unión estableció un proceso destinado a reforzar la arquitectura de la UEM. El proceso se basa en el Informe de los cinco presidentes titulado «Realizar la Unión Económica y Monetaria europea», de 2015, que se centraba en cuatro cuestiones principales:
•   una verdadera unión económica;
•   una unión financiera;
•   una unión fiscal;
•   una unión política.
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/factsheets/es/sheet/87/la-gobernanza-economica

+info
The Five President's Report: Completing Europe's Economic and Monetary Union
English (722.4 KB - PDF)

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/publications/five-presidents-report-completing-europes-economic-and-monetary-union_en

[ERB]

Boris vs Hunt ITV debate https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOLqmNaA_jA

UK Vs UE
Sí, primer ministro (serie)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=07OlMyLb09g
2:02 – 3:31

UK ¿Una nueva Suiza? ahí lo dejo…

Las relaciones entre la UE y Suiza se basan en el Acuerdo de Libre Comercio de 1972 y en los más de 120 acuerdos bilaterales posteriores, que se gestionan a través de una compleja estructura basada en más de 15 Comités Mixtos.

http://www.comercio.gob.es/es-ES/comercio-exterior/politica-comercial/relaciones-bilaterales-union-europea/europa/efta/Paginas/suiza.aspx