La unificación de Europa (Y que va a pasar con España)

[visillófilas pepitófagas]

Resumen ejecutivo del artículo de Stratfor:

Cuando parecía que la UE se desintegraba, mal.
Ahora que parece que se integra, mal.

[Currobena]

¿Otro paso hacia la independencia financiera de Europa?

Exclusive: Banks Step Up Ratings Agency Pressure

Mark Kleinman June 13, 2012 6:27 PM

Some of Europe's largest banks are intensifying discussions about a move to reduce their co-operation with the big three credit ratings agencies amid widespread dissatisfaction with their decision-making.

I have learned that finance directors and other executives from about a dozen of the Continent's biggest lenders held talks on the issue during the Institute of International Finance in Copenhagen last week.

I'm told that the discussions did not result in a formal decision to reduce the amount of information disclosed to Fitch, Moody's and Standard & Poor's, but one source familiar with the talks said today that "things are certainly moving in that direction".

The judgements of the dominant trio of ratings agencies have been questioned repeatedly as the Eurozone crisis has deepened, triggering downgrades of numerous European governments and major banks.

Moody's is expected to announce downgrades to the ratings of British banks including Barclays, Lloyds Banking Group and Royal Bank of Scotland in the next few days.

One senior bank executive put it like this to me: "The ratings agencies got it horribly wrong on the way up; there are lots of reasons to suppose they are getting it wrong on the way down.

Los grandes bancos europeos se rebelan contra las agencias de calificación estadounidenses.

http://blogs.news.sky.com/kleinman/Post:e717183a-bc6f-41fd-a283-2448cc76c4eb

[Maple Leaf]

Rupert Murdoch pressured me over Europe, says John Major

Ex-PM tells Leveson inquiry that mogul said in 1997 his papers would oppose the government if it did not change its policy

http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/jun/12/rupert-murdoch-john-major

"Certainly he never asked for anything directly from me but he was not averse to pressing for policy changes. In the runup to the 1997 general election in my third and last meeting with him on 2 February 1997 he made it clear that he disliked my European policies which he wished me to change.

"If not, his papers could not and would not support the Conservative government. So far as I recall he made no mention of editorial independence but referred to all his papers as 'we'.

"Both Mr Murdoch and I kept our word. I made no change in policy and Mr Murdoch's titles did indeed oppose the Conservative party. It came as no surprise to me when soon after our meeting the Sun newspaper announced its support for Labour."

Major said he "saw at first hand Rupert Murdoch's relationship with Margaret Thatcher but did not have, nor wish to have, a similar relationship".

"I recognised Mr Murdoch's remarkable success in business but did not admire much that was in his newspapers, nor his methods or his political philosophy," he added.

Major said it was a private dinner also attended by his wife and Elisabeth Murdoch. He added that Murdoch wanted Britain to withdraw from the European Union

[dmar]

En directo, en la SER: tertulianos hablando de que EEUU y UK podrían tener intereses en contra del euro.

Va a ser que somos vanguardia, y todo.

[pringaete]

En directo, en la SER: tertulianos hablando de que EEUU y UK podrían tener intereses en contra del euro.

Va a ser que somos vanguardia, y todo.

Igual hasta nos leen  porque aunque solo sea como fuente de datos y noticias, este foro vale oro para ellos. Sin entrar en los análisis ni los pronósticos.

[John Nash]

La próxima edición del GEAB aplazado al 19 de junio!

- Informacion especial -


La próxima edición del GEAB aplazado al 19 de junio!
Les informamos que el próximo GEAB N°66 saldrá el18 de junio, debido a las elecciones legislativas francesas y griegas y las importantes consecuencias que tendrán en Eurolandia y fuera de ella.

[Currobena]

Es inútil, nadie quiere ser Europa    :

A colleague sent this to me.  Apparently it’s making the rounds:

    “Spain is not Greece.” Elena Salgado, Spanish Finance minister,
    February, 2010.

    “Portugal is not Greece.” The Economist, April 2010.

    “Greece is not Ireland.” George Papaconstantinou, Greek Finance
    minister, November, 2010.

    “Spain is neither Ireland nor Portugal.” Elena Salgado, Spanish Finance
    minister, November 2010.

    “Ireland is not in ‘Greek Territory.’”Irish Finance Minister Brian
    Lenihan. November 2010.

    “Neither Spain nor Portugal is Ireland.” Angel Gurria, Secretary-general
    OECD, November, 2010.

    “Italy is not Spain” – Ed Parker, Fitch MD, 12 June 2012

    “Spain is not Uganda” Spanish PM Rajoy. June, 2012

    “Uganda does not want to be Spain” (Ugandan foreign minister) June 13th
    2012

I guess no one wants to be Europe.   The bad news is Europe is Europe.  So they’re all suffering from the same debilitating disease – being involved in an unworkable currency union.  So this bantering about “we are not so and so” really misses the point. The sooner they start realizing they’re all Europeans the sooner they’ll likely resolve this mess.

Mezcla de humor y esperanza...

P.D.: Uganda no es Europa. 

http://pragcap.com/you-dont-want-to-be-europe

[Lego]

    “Spain is not Greece.” Elena Salgado, Spanish Finance minister,
    February, 2010.

    “Portugal is not Greece.” The Economist, April 2010.

    “Greece is not Ireland.” George Papaconstantinou, Greek Finance
    minister, November, 2010.

    “Spain is neither Ireland nor Portugal.” Elena Salgado, Spanish Finance
    minister, November 2010.

    “Ireland is not in ‘Greek Territory.’”Irish Finance Minister Brian
    Lenihan. November 2010.

    “Neither Spain nor Portugal is Ireland.” Angel Gurria, Secretary-general
    OECD, November, 2010.

    “Italy is not Spain” – Ed Parker, Fitch MD, 12 June 2012

    “Spain is not Uganda” Spanish PM Rajoy. June, 2012

    “Uganda does not want to be Spain” (Ugandan foreign minister) June 13th
    2012

yurop's livin' a selebreison!!

Eurovision 2002 Spain Rosa-Europe's living a celebration	Small | Large

[Currobena]

Una de las claves del conflicto económico USA-Europa:

The Real Conflict Between USA and Europe is Equity vs. Cash
Posted on June 19, 2012 by Michael Harris   

Why is Germany refusing the issue of euro bonds and large scale asset purchases by the ECB? Why is Germany pushing the doctrine of internal devaluation through austerity plans in countries with debt problems instead of doing what USA did in 2008 and 2010 with quantitative easing?  What is the source of this conflict and how it will impact the markets?

In a nutshell, the conflict between USA and Germany is the equivalent of the conflict between equity and cash. American wealth is mostly paper wealth and we recently got an idea how significantly it can fluctuate after the Facebook IPO when the estimated wealth of its founder dropped in excess of 10 billion dollars in a few days. The same is true for the wealth of most individuals in the USA that are in the list of the richest people in the world. Their wealth depends on equity prices. When equity markets rise individuals with significant equity stake in listed companies see their wealth increasing significantly and they can use that as collateral to get loans and expand their operations and even hire more people. Employment in the US is tightly correlated to stock market performance. In this case, quantitative easing helped sustain the levels of wealth in USA and prevented unemployment rising further.

On the other hand, wealth in Europe is mostly “old wealth” hidden deep in Swiss vaults in the form of cash. This form of wealth is adversely impacted by things like quantitative easing that have the potential of causing inflation. Thus, the European rich, who hold cash instead of equities, resist quantitative easing as a solution to debt problems and instead are pushing a large scale economic experiment, the first of its kind ever. This experiment is supposed to determine whether internal devaluation in countries that do not have a sovereign currency printing right, like all EU countries, can take the place of quantitative easing by increasing productivity and competitiveness. However, unlike genetic experiments where cruelty impacts small animals, in this case cruelty impacts people and their future.

Modern economics tells us that if the budget deficit is zero then the trade deficit must be positive unless the private sector has savings to spend. I look at it differently: When in troubled countries the private sector runs out of money, the only way those countries can maintain a zero budget deficit is by becoming net exporters. This little but important detail I think might have been underestimated by those who run the experiment in Europe. As long as China is growing, there is no way for a country like Greece or Spain to become net exporters and maintain a zero deficit solely by utilizing revenues from a trade surplus in the foreseeable future. This would require a dramatic change in economic infrastructure in these countries that can take decades.

So what you do not hear by politicians in Europe in my opinion is that the real war is between the equity holders of USA and the cash hoarders of Europe. Other large countries, like Russia and China, are now coming to the USA side because more quantitative easing increases demand for their products. The Russian are also very concerned about the currency reserves they have elected to convert to euros from a fear of a dollar collapse which has not happened. The Chinese case is more complicated because of bond holdings from the receipts from trade but in my opinion in China they have come to understand the problem in the last couple of years and the harsh rhetoric against quantitative easing has paused.

What lies ahead?

The European rich will keep resisting quantitative easing style interventions in Europe to fix the debt problems, electing instead to push austerity measures to the edge and along with it whole nations, in which nationalist and anti-EU movements are rapidly rising. The European rich see that as of no concern to them because they can buy even cheaper assets in those countries down the road if they re-adopt national currencies and devalue them. In the meantime, equity holders in the US will suffer from the uncertainty and commodity producers like Russia will see demand dropping to levels below profitability. China will also see export demand dropping slightly. Unless the Germans submit to some form of asset buying and less austerity, and there is also issue of euro bonds, there is more uncertainty ahead and possibly a danger of deflation in the USA.

As it may be seen from the weekly chart of DBC above, we are currently at a critical juncture. If commodity prices continue to slide and the ETF moves towards $20, we will reach the critical level of late 2008 – early 2009 when QE1 was initiated by the FED. The threat of going into a deflationary death spiral is real if the FED does not act again.  At this point weak commodity demand can be attributed to an economic slowdown but if the 2008 lows are reached this will not be a simple recession any longer but a signal of deflation. I am not very optimistic that Germany and the rest of the world will ever reach an agreement soon, although I hope that happens and we do not see another collapse in stock markets worldwide so that cash can maintain or even increase its purchasing power.

Resumido, la clave es que los ricos de EEUU tienen su riqueza en activos financieros (bolsa) y los de Europa en dinero efectivos o bonos, con lo que los primeros quieren inflación para seguir siendo ricos y los segundos prefieren deflación para no arruinarse.

http://www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/2012/06/the-real-conflict-between-usa-and-europe-is-equity-vs-cash/

[Starkiller]

http://www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/2012/06/the-real-conflict-between-usa-and-europe-is-equity-vs-cash/

Con todos mis respetos para vd. por haber traido este artículo, me parece completamente erróneo.

La bolsa apenas contiene riqueza; no comparado con el mercado de bonos. El mayor emisor de bonos (Que son nominados, no cotizados, y por lo tanto, son "cash"), es el gobierno de USA.

Los que son aquerósamente ricos almacenan "the lion's share" de su riqueza fundamentalmente en dos vehículos (Inmobiliario y Bonos). Aquí, en USA, en Asia y en Tombunctu.

Bolsa y Hedges no son más que la parte del portafolio que "hace dinero", a cambio de aceptar riesgo.

Hemos dicho muchas veces que la preocupación de los asquerosamente ricos es conservar su riqueza, su patrimonio.

Y aquí, o en USA, esa gente tiene bonos, activos inmobiliarios y empresas (Normalmente redes de empresas medias/grandes no cotizadas). Y luego una parte de su riqueza en hedges o bolsa, con dos objetos: liquidez inmediata y hacer algo de cash.

Ahora, si lo que queremos es acusar a los malvados Europeos de sombrero de copa y cámaras subterráneas en Suiza de hacer un maligno Experimento Social, a diferencia de los democráticos anglosajones (Que,  por supuesto, no estan haciendo un jodido experimento-timo financiero con su economía) que solo se preocupan por su pueblo... pues el artículo esta bien xD

[nief]

http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-66-is-available-Red-alert-Global-systemic-crisis-September-October-2012-When-the-trumpets-of-Jericho-ring-out_a11079.html

GEAB N°66 is available! Red alert / Global systemic crisis – September-October 2012: When the trumpets of Jericho ring out seven times for the world before the crisis


Ha salido.

Voy a leerlo.

Espero los comentarios de los foreros.

Saludos

[Karunel]

Yo comentaría pero es que desde que lo he leído aún no he conseguido levantarme del excusado.

Ni SNB, oiga. 

[nief]

Acabo de leerlo. Parece que todos van a pasar el calvario de la UE a partir del veranete.

Y que Europa saldra reforzada de la crisis. Vamos lo que se lleva comentando en el foro meses, da gusto haberlo leido ya aqui con anterioridad

Miedito da.

saludos

[Maple Leaf]

Cameron irrita a Hollande al extender la "alfombra roja" a los inversores que dejen Francia

http://www.rtve.es/noticias/20120619/cameron-irrita-hollande-extender-alfombra-roja-inversores-dejen-francia/538067.shtml

El primer ministro británico critica la tasa sobre los ricos de Hollande
Un ministro francés lo califica de "humor británico" fuera de lugar
Cameron ya tenía malas relaciones con Sarkozy por la política económica

El primer ministro británico, David Cameron, ha tenido su primer encontronazo diplomático con el presidente francés, François Hollande, al asegurar en la cumbre del G-20 que le pondrá "la alfombra roja" a las empresas francesas que quieran abandonar el país galo en respuesta a la propuesta del líder socialista de aumentar los impuestos hasta un 75% a los más ricos.

Cameron, que ya tuvo una relación glacial con el predecesor de Hollande, Nicolás Sarkozy, le lanzó la pulla al mandatario francés en un encuentro con lideres empresariales el pasado lunes, lo que provocó una fría respuesta del entorno del Elíseo.

El diputado Claude Bartolone ha asegurado que los franceses que se muden a Londres para beneficiarse de impuestos más bajos acabarán volviendo a Francia por la cobertura sanitaria y la educación de sus hijos dado que, a su juicio, los servicios públicos "ya no existen" en Reino Unido.

El ministro de Asuntos Europeos, Bernard Cazeneuve, calificó el comentario de Cameron como "humor británico" fuera de lugar.

Holland rechazó entrar en la polémica, asegurando a los periodistas en la cumbre de Los Cabos (México) que Europa debe mostrar unidad en tiempo de crisis, antes de añadir: "Siempre estamos contentos de poner nuestras políticas fiscales en comparación".

El gobierno de Cameron redujo los impuestos a las rentas altas del 50 al 45% este año asegurando que provocaba un aumento menor en la recaudación y que actuaba como una barrera para las empresas.
Tasa a los multimillonarios

El líder conservador británico ha criticado la política fiscal de aumento de impuestos y gasto de Hollande, especialmente el impuesto a los ricos, una medida simbólica que podría afectar a unos 3.000 multimillonarios franceses que tendría una contribución modesta a la reducción del déficit galo.

Las palabras de Cameron han sido confirmadas por Downing Street, que ha mantenido que "pondrá la alfombra roja" y "dará la bienvenida a más empresas francesas a Reino Unido si sigue adelante el nuevo impuesto para multimillonarios".

Además, el portavoz de Cameron han declarado con ironía que las empresas francesas podrían "ayudar a pagar nuestro servicio de salud, las escuelas y todo lo demás".

Británicos y franceses han chocado repetidamente sobre política económica en los últimos años, incluyendo el choque cara a caea en las negociaciones del pacto fiscal, cuando Sarkozy le espetó a Cameron que "había perdido una gran oportunidad para cerrar la boca".

El asesor económico de Hollande en la campaña y ahora ministro de Trabajo, Michel Sapin, ha preferido tomárselo con humor: "Francamente, no entiendo cómo se puede desplegar una alfombra roja sobre el canal. Estaría bastante mojada".

[Eyaso]

otia! dicen que será en Octubre!