PPCC. PIsitófilos Creditófagos. Otoño 2020

[Derby]

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/brexit-news/europe-news/brexit-deadline-ahead-of-eu-summit-6263938

EU sets seven-day deadline for Brexit talks as official warns of 'real problems'

The European Union has set the UK government a seven-day deadline over Brexit talks, as the bloc warns time is running out to ratify transitional arrangements.

Officials on both sides are pessimistic about a deal being reached in the coming days, with the EU wanting an agreement by mid-November in order to allow MEPs to scrutinise the agreement before voting.(...)

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/nov/11/eu-summit-19-november-deadline-draft-brexit-deal

EU summit on 19 November seen as deadline for draft Brexit deal

‘If there isn’t good news by then ... time is up,’ says senior EU diplomat

A summit of EU leaders on 19 November is now viewed in Brussels as the final deadline for a draft Brexit deal, with negotiations on Britain’s future trade and security relationship with the bloc set to go to the wire.

Negotiators working in London had hoped to be able to pass on a deal to MEPs for scrutiny by 18 November to allow time for parliamentary ratification but the talks remain difficult, according to sources on both sides.

Next Thursday’s video conference summit of the 27 heads of state and government, arranged to discuss the latest developments in the coronavirus pandemic, is being seen as a key moment in the Brexit saga.

“If there isn’t good news by then, then you really have to say that time is up – it just isn’t possible,” said one senior EU diplomat. “The leaders will need to see that it is there.”

A final arbitration session between Boris Johnson and the European commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, is also a possibility should the negotiators move closer to each other’s positions on the outstanding issues.

The thorniest problems to resolve remain the level of access to UK waters provided to EU fishing fleets, how to maintain fair competition rules for business – including rules on domestic subsidies – and the mechanism in the final treaty for resolving future disputes.

UK sources have complained that Brussels has as yet failed to show enough “realism” about the scale of the change to the level of fishing opportunities the EU member states’ fleet will have in Britain’s exclusive economic zone from next year.

On ensuring a “level playing field” for businesses in the UK and the EU, progress is being made on how the two sides’ domestic subsidy regimes would operate but difficulties remain in establishing a mechanism whereby a baseline of environmental, labour and social standards would develop in tandem for both sides.

Downing Street has insisted the UK needs to be able to diverge its rulebook, while the EU has said it will not grant a “zero tariff, zero quota” deal if British companies are not operating under rules that are at least equivalent to those set by Brussels.

A UK source said: “We have a different view from the EU on what is appropriate on level playing field issues. We have been clear that we can look at common principles for our different subsidy systems and perhaps even at the ability to act if a major subsidy genuinely distorts trade.

“What we can’t agree to are arrangements which would require us to operate systems of laws equivalent to the EU’s and make us pay a penalty if we moved away from them. We need policy space to decide what is in the UK’s interest in the future. That is the very essence of what Brexit is about.”

Despite the difficulties, the prime minister said on Sunday that a trade and security deal was “there to be done” and that the broad outline was already “pretty clear”. Johnson spoke to Von der Leyen on Saturday.(...)

[wanderer]

Dedicado a todos los PDM's

(click to show/hide)

Puercos Demócratas de Mierda

que en el mundo han sido:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-iFIXpKRHeU

[marvin]

A mí el cambio de expectativas que pueda provocar el ANUNCIO de vacuna me ha recordado la apoteosis de la que hablaba Asustadísimos, teniendo en cuenta además que en mis entornos pisitófilos ya había detectado en sus cabezas astutas de grandes inversores la idea de aprovechar el Covid para comprar alguna ganga, aunque nadie lo dice abiertamente porque sería reconocer que se piensa en aprovechar una tragedia.

[pollo]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-11/london-office-landlord-warns-city-s-rents-have-further-to-fall

https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/london-office-landlord-warns-city-s-rents-have-further-to-fall

London Office Landlord Warns City’s Rents Have Further to Fall

London office landlords should brace for even more damage to their bottom lines.

Great Portland Estates Plc, which owns offices throughout central London, said the worse than expected impact of the pandemic means rents across its properties will likely drop by as much as 10% this year.

Yo estoy empezado a ver miedo en mi zona.

Hace poco una casa de 4 habitaciones con jardín en Kensington por £2,000/mes (duró una semana en Zoopla). Este mes han puesto en oferta en mi urba una propiedad con una habitación más que la mía por lo mismo que estoy pagando yo (que ya estaba por debajo de la media de la zona).

Propiedades que hubieran sido chollos hace un año llevan meses en el mercado y nada. Y ya veremos qué risas cuando el Brexit sea oficial.

Hay pisos de una habitación más caros que casas de 3 habitaciones   
Esos caseros, ¿en qué piensan? ¿qué mirlo blanco se creen que va a llegar a darles £2,500/mes por un piso de una habitación, por muy Kensington que sea? Con ERTES, despidos y sin expats viniendo a Londres.

 

I'd rather burn it than take a loss.

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/3fc692fe-a79d-447f-9dec-42c171dc9a53

https://finanz.dk/ecb-set-to-expand-bond-buying-and-cheap-loans-lagarde-signals/

ECB Set To Expand Bond-Buying And Cheap Loans, Lagarde Signals

Financing costs for governments, households and businesses in the eurozone will stay “exceptionally favourable” until the economy recovers from the pandemic, European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde has said.

The ECB will use its emergency bond-buying and ultra-cheap loans to banks as the main way of controlling financing costs, she told the ECB’s annual forum on central banking, which is being held online for the first time this year.

The ECB president welcomed the “encouraging” news of a potential Covid-19 vaccine breakthrough that fuelled a market rally this week, but said the second wave of the pandemic still presented “new challenges and risks” for the eurozone economy.

“The key challenge for policymakers will be to bridge the gap until vaccination is well advanced and the recovery can build its own momentum,” Ms Lagarde said. “The ECB was there for the first wave and the ECB will be there for the second wave.”
 
After her comments the yield on Germany’s 10-year Bund dipped 2.5 basis points to minus 0.51 per cent. Bond yields fall as their prices rise.

The recent resurgence of coronavirus infections in many European countries and the partial lockdowns imposed as a result could have an even bigger impact on consumer and business confidence than in the first wave of the virus during the spring, she warned.

“Even if this second wave of the virus proves to be less intense than the first, it poses no less danger to the economy,” she said. “In particular, if the public no longer sees the pandemic as a one-off event, we could see more lasting changes in behaviour than during the first wave.” (...)

Some critics have argued that central banks and governments risk creating “zombie” companies by keeping unviable businesses alive. But Ms Lagarde said: “Concerns about ‘zombification’ or impeding creative destruction are misplaced, especially if a vaccine is now in sight.”

[Derby]

https://dealbreaker.com/2020/11/uk-seeks-place-for-london

British Chancellor Closes Eyes, Wishes Real Hard That London Will Remain Relevant

Barring that, it welcomes your green finance dreams.

Last week did not go as Boris Johnson and the Brexiteers might have hoped. The scrappy kid from Scranton’s got no time for the intolerant toffs running Blighty, and his Irish eyes do not look fondly upon any international law-violating plans that could throw his ancestral homeland back into tribal bloodshed, potentially cutting out a potentially key pillar of a post-EU place in the sun for Britain. The perfidious continentals across the Channel are also feeling their oats, as well as not particularly well-disposed to their former partner.

But Brexit was never about facing hard realities or making tough choices. It was about dreaming up your most extravagant fantasy, closing your eyes and attempting to will it into existence—and that fantasy is not of a London more in line with Florence or Prague than with a real, vital city and global financial center. And Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak is certainly not done dreaming of a world in which an increasingly irrelevant London continues to rank with the New Yorks and Singapores (and, let’s be honest, Frankfurts) of the world.

“We are starting a new chapter in the history of financial services and renewing the U.K.’s position as the world’s pre-eminent financial center,” said Mr. Sunak.

The plan includes making the U.K. a leader in green finance and a series of reviews to ensure its financial sector is efficiently regulated. The U.K. chancellor announced a task force that will be charged with refreshing U.K. securities-listing rules to make it easier to raise money in London….

Hoping to encourage the EU to declare its hand, the U.K. Treasury on Monday published a series of its own equivalence decisions relating to firms based in the EU. They include recognizing that derivatives traded on EU exchanges would be classified by the U.K. as exchange-traded rather than over-the-counter, and therefore attract lower capital requirements.

The Treasury said publishing its own equivalence decisions delivered “on its commitment to be open, predictable and transparent, even in the absence of clarity from the EU on their approach.”

The early returns on this open-hearted, endearingly delusional vision? Not great, even among the equally delusional.

SoftBank has been holding internal discussions on whether to relocate the unit that manages its $100bn Vision Fund from the UK to Abu Dhabi….

A person close to Mr Misra… said that the move was primarily driven by an attempt by the Japanese conglomerate to capture a substantially lower tax rate for profits booked by SBIA…. Other people with knowledge of the discussions said the company had been debating the issue for months for regulatory benefits beyond reduced tax rates.

[Derby]

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/covid19-currency-stability-unlikely-to-persist-long-term-by-kenneth-rogoff-2020-11/spanish

¿Será la calma antes de la tormenta cambiaria?, KENNETH ROGOFF

(...) Básicamente, a largo plazo hay una contradicción fundamental entre la cuota creciente de deuda estadounidense en los mercados mundiales y la cuota declinante que supone la producción estadounidense en la economía global. (El Fondo Monetario Internacional prevé que a fines de 2021, la economía china habrá crecido 10% respecto de fines de 2019.) Un problema similar terminó provocando la ruptura del sistema Bretton Woods de tipos de cambio fijos de la posguerra, una década después de que el economista Robert Triffin (de Yale) identificara el problema a principios de los sesenta.

En el corto a mediano plazo, no es imposible que el dólar se siga apreciando (sobre todo si sucesivas olas de COVID‑19 generan tensión en los mercados financieros y activan una huida hacia la seguridad). Y dejando a un lado incertidumbres cambiarias, es casi seguro que el dólar seguirá reinando en 2030. Pero no hay que olvidar que traumas económicos como el que estamos experimentando suelen convertirse en dolorosos puntos de inflexión.

[visillófilas pepitófagas]

¡Qué extrañeza produce leer las noticias más recientes!

TUI in talks for up to 1.8 bln euros of extra state aid - sources

Primark lanzará un ERTE para toda la plantilla en España

EU banks urged to prepare for bad loans as pandemic hits economy

La sorprendente propuesta de Deutsche Bank: un impuesto del 5% a los teletrabajadores tras la pandemia

ECB Set To Expand Bond-Buying And Cheap Loans, Lagarde Signals

Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla filed to sell millions of dollars of his company's stock Monday -- the day the pharmaceutical giant announced positive data about its coronavirus vaccine.

Amosaver...

¿No se ha enterado TUI de que hay vacuna mágica de Pfizer? ¿Para qué pide 1.800 millones de ayuda, si el turismo va a volver a su boom pre-Covid?

¿No se ha enterado Primark de que hay vacuna mágica de Pfizer? ¿Para qué lanza un ERTE, si todo el mundo va a volver en manada a las tiendas?

¿No se han enterado los bancos europeos de que hay vacuna mágica de Pfizer? ¿Para qué se preparan para un aluvión de créditos fallidos, si nadie va a impagar?

¿No se ha enterado Deutsche Bank de que hay vacuna mágica de Pfizer? ¿Para qué pide un impuesto del 5% a los teletrabajadores, si todo el mundo va a volver a la oficina?

¿No se han enterado el BCE y Lagarde de que hay vacuna mágica de Pfizer? ¿Para qué expandir su programa de compras, si la economía va a volver al boom pre-Covid?

¿No se ha enterado el CEO de Pfizer de que hay vacuna mágica de Pfizer? ¿Para qué vender sus acciones, si la vacuna mágica hará que suban estratosféricamente?

¡Qué cosas! Nos tienen despistadísimas.

[visillófilas pepitófagas]

Fed Issues Warning About High Debt And Overvalued Asset Prices

De postre, el cártel de Cali nos avisa del preocupante auge del narcotráfico y del creciente número de yonquis en los barrios.

No sabemos qué haríamos de no ser por ellos. Dios los bendiga.

[Derby]

Ya nos los hemos gastado...

https://www.vozpopuli.com/espana/sanchez-anticipo-liquidez-fondo-europeo_0_1409260665.html

Sánchez busca liquidez urgente y negocia un anticipo de 20.000 millones del fondo europeo

Fuentes del Gobierno aseguran que la negociación con Bruselas avanza a buen ritmo. La liquidez es clave para que España no tenga que recurrir a los mercados para financiar las reformas de los Presupuestos

El Gobierno negocia en Bruselas un anticipo de hasta 20.000 millones de euros para 2021 de los fondos europeos de reconstrucción. La Comisión Europea y el Ejecutivo de Pedro Sánchez, al igual que el de otros países de la Unión Europea, han empezado a trabajar sobre el borrador del Plan de Recuperación, Transformación y Resiliencia que Sánchez presentó hace un mes. Las sensaciones, según fuentes del Gobierno consultadas por Vozpópuli, son "muy buenas".

"Todos los países están negociando", dicen estas fuentes. "En el caso de España el feedback que nos da (la Comisión) es muy bueno. Somos de los países más avanzados".

Los responsables económicos del Gobierno admitieron hace unos meses que sin esa liquidez, España tendrá que recurrir a los mercados para poder financiar las reformas acordadas. Esa situación, que Sánchez trata de evitar a toda costa, engordaría aún más la abultada deuda pública del país.

16.000-20.000 millones en 2021

A España le correspondieron 140.000 millones del plan europeo de recuperación, que incluye diversos mecanismos de ayuda por el impacto del coronavirus. Sánchez anunció que gastará 72.000 de ellos en los próximos tres años. Y el Gobierno ha pintado en los Presupuestos del año que viene 27.000 millones de euros que todavía no se han recibido.

El cálculo más optimista de La Moncloa es que el anticipo alcance como máximo unos 20.000 millones en 2021, todo en transferencias, en cuanto el Plan de Recuperación esté definitivamente aprobado en abril. La Oficina Económica de la Presidencia, que dirige Manuel de la Rocha, es la unidad que está gestionando la llegada de los fondos europeos en coordinación con otros ministerios y las comunidades autónomas.

El Gobierno cree tener prácticamente atado un anticipo de 16.000. Unos 10.000 serán del programa REACT-EU. Este es probablemente el más flexible de los paquetes de ayudas europeas, porque se puede canalizar casi libremente por los países de la Unión en inversiones para apoyar el mantenimiento del empleo, apoyo a los trabajadores por cuenta propia, medidas de empleo juvenil, cultura y asistencia sanitaria entre otros. Europa asignó 12.000 millones del REACT a España, así que Sánchez gastaría prácticamente todo de una tacada.

Agilizar licitación y adjudicación

Los otros 6.000 millones serán los correspondientes del 10% de los 60.000 del Mecanismo de Recuperación y Resiliencia. Este es el fondo más importante del paquete Next Generation de la UE. financiará los proyectos de digitalización o transición ecológica del Gobierno y las comunidades. Este 10% es el tope que el Gobierno puede pedir al año si reclama transferencias y no préstamos. Sin embargo, negocia con Bruselas una cantidad superior.

"Estamos luchando por otro pago en el segundo semestre del 2021 de este Mecanismo", explican estas fuentes. "Peleamos por llegar a los 20.000 millones".

Algunas autonomías han alertado de que no recibirán un solo euro hasta 2023. Sánchez anunció que las comunidades gestionarán el 50% del fondo de recuperación. Pero algunas autonomías denuncian, por un lado, que la cantidad de dinero es inferior a la que vende el Gobierno. Y, por otro, que el criterio de reparto será totalmente discrecional. Es decir, que Moncloa siempre tendrá la última palabra. Las comunidades deberán presentar sus proyectos antes de final de año.

Sánchez se comprometió a reformar la legislación para agilizar los trámites administrativos de licitación y adjudicación. El compromiso es aprobar esta norma o conjunto de normas antes de que acabe 2020.

[Derby]

https://themarketear.com/posts/crgplyUQCc

The rise of the (US) Zombies (companies) .

We have previously covered the fast increase of European Zombie companies. By the looks of it, things are not that much better in the US. A record number of companies (18% of Russell 3000) are zombie companies in the US as well. 

Maybe Ackmanis on to somethingwith hedging against corporate defaults?

Ya copié el gráfico de la UE, pero lo vuelvo a traer...

https://themarketear.com/posts/chvIHiwwla

Rise of European Zombie companies

The number of non-financial European companies with an interest coverage of less than 1.0x is spiking. With the most recent lockdown, the number of "zombies" will probably increase. One wonders at what point the problems will become too big.

[Derby]

https://themarketear.com/posts/c7T3z7xW7B

What are you going to do with all that renewable energy if no storage available?

Amount of clean energy production will sky rocket over the next couple years and decade. Wood Mackenzie points out that "despite Europe having more renewables, and more importantly, more wind and solar, than any other region globally, it is losing the energy storage race. Energy storage will provide much-needed flexibility as countries strive to achieve a net zero future. And, crucially, it will help to ensure that power prices remain affordable for the end consumer."

Important to have all pieces on the clean energy approach. What is the point produce all that clean if it ends up all going to waste.

https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinion/three-reasons-why-europe-is-set-to-lose-the-energy-storage-race/

[Derby]

https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/No-more-natural-gas-in-new-San-Francisco-15717658.php

No more natural gas in new San Francisco buildings starting next year

(...) Natural gas accounts for roughly 40% of San Francisco’s overall emissions of greenhouse gases and 80% of building emissions. Requiring cleaner, all-electric buildings in new construction will increase building safety, reduce emissions citywide and improve indoor air quality, Mandelman said. A 2018 executive order from then-Gov. Jerry Brown mandates that the state reach carbon neutrality by 2045 and maintain net negative emissions after that.

[Derby]

https://themarketear.com/posts/cayn9z1vOW

S&P495 +4% vs FAAMG +48% YTD

Earnings growth and valuation expansion have contributed roughly equally to the FAAMG rally in 2020. The FAAMG stocks have performed so well this year because of their long-duration secular growth profile - will this at least slightly change from here?

(not including yesterday and today)

[uno]

Los nuevos subsidios y 150.000 ERTES agravan el colapso del SEPE
El sindicato de funcionarios CSIF reclama al Gobierno medidas eficaces para corregir la situación.  El SEPE está al límite ante el volumen actual de trabajo y la previsión empeora para el 2021.
Miles de trabajadores siguen sin cobrar sus prestaciones.

Actualizado: 12/11/2020

https://loentiendo.com/sindicatos-denuncian-colapso-sepe/

................. en las dos últimas semanas, la plantilla del SEPE ha tenido que asumir la tramitación de cerca de 150.000 nuevos ERTES que afectan a más de 720.000 trabajadores, junto al resto de prestaciones extraordinarias y ordinarias”.

................
Las aplicaciones y sistemas informáticos tienen una antigüedad media de treinta años,.................