PPCC. PIsitófilos Creditófagos. Otoño 2020

[Derby]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/19/britain-not-ready-for-no-deal-says-brexit-select-committee

Britain not ready for no deal, says Brexit select committee

Policing a serious concern as co-operation with EU authorities remains up in the air

Significant concerns have been expressed over the UK’s preparedness for leaving the EU by an influential group of MPs less than two weeks before Brexit day on 31 December.

The Commons’ Brexit select committee has called on the government to ensure there is a robust contingency plan in place in the next fortnight to cope with the fallout as it criticises the lack of an “overall state of readiness” for business and citizens.

The call comes as it emerged that Whitehall had tested some worst-case possible scenarios in a no-deal outcome this week. Operation Capstone events included French fishing boats blockading ferries in the English channel, the hijacking of vaccine trucks, a surge in hate crime, an explosion in Gibraltar and the closure of a care home because of sudden shortages of EU-national workers after 1 January, according to the Times (paywall).

Many of the details of the new trade and travel barriers are only beginning to sink in. Some will not emerge until it is known if the UK and the EU have been able to hammer out a deal before the Sunday deadline.

The committee has warned that borders must not be compromised if there is no agreement on policing that ensures continued access to law enforcement tools including the European arrest warrant.

“With just seven working days until the end of the transition period, significant concerns remain,” said Hilary Benn, chair of the committee.

The warning comes in a report published on Saturday as Downing Street and Brussels continue to try to hammer out a deal, deadlocked over fishing, by the European parliament’s deadline.

“At this late stage the government must be ready to implement contingency plans where necessary to mitigate the effects of any disruption. Failure to do so would mean the worst possible start to the new year for many people and businesses who are already experiencing the toughest of times,” the report says.

Benn said the government “still cannot provide business, traders and citizens with certainty about what will happen in all the areas affected by the negotiations”.

The report adds that decisions have been made “too late”, communication with businesses has been “patchy at best” and police may be forced to use “slower and more cumbersome” systems.

The cross-party committee, which backed the report unanimously, warned that the combination of Brexit uncertainty and Covid-19 could hamper UK businesses.

Provisions to ensure the UK border is “secure and safe” must be put in place while ministers must carefully monitor the effectiveness of alternative means of intelligence sharing for law enforcement, the report says.

If the UK crashes out without a deal it loses access not just to the joint arrest system but also to four other systems including: live passenger number records vital in counter-terror operations; the Schengen Information System II database of missing persons and stolen goods; fingerprinting and DNA records in a system known as Prüm; and the European Criminal Records Information System (Ecris), which holds records of criminals across the bloc.

Before connecting to the Prüm DNA framework, which contains millions of records on criminal suspects, data exchange was done manually by the UK’s National Crime Agency.

The government has said it would still be able to cooperate with EU security and police counterparts using Interpol and other forums.

However, police representatives have said the alternatives will leave the UK in a weaker position.

While the precise nature of future cooperation with the EU on law enforcement remains unclear, the UK’s safety and security must not be compromised, the MPs say.

They recognise that UK law enforcement agencies have been working hard to develop alternatives to EU databases but warn “the fallback systems for exchanging data are slower and more cumbersome”.

They say a EU-UK surrender agreement to replace the European arrest warrant is “unlikely” to be ready in time and urge the government to open talks with the Irish government over bilateral policing arrangements for the island of Ireland.

The MPs praise the government for its early decision to phase in customs and regulatory controls in three stages between January and July, and the recent agreement on the implementation of the Northern Ireland protocol.

But they call on Westminster to work with the devolved governments to “minimise traffic disruption” near British ports, citing the lack of veterinary officers to provide health certificates for food and animal products mandatory for exports to the EU from 1 January.

Decisions on the border model are complicated but have been made “too late” and the “late delivery” of IT systems for customs makes training and testing difficult. The MPs warn that trade with the EU may be hindered if sufficient numbers of customs and veterinary staff to perform checks and give advice are not in place.

On security issues the government said Brexit would allow “tangible changes that will make the British people safer, including banning foreign criminals from entering the UK”.

It said border software would be ready, that the Welsh government was close to securing a lorry site for Holyhead and that it was pleased the committee had welcomed “our pragmatic and flexible approach to staged border controls, as well as our detailed border operating model” as well as the agreement on Northern Ireland.

[Derby]

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu/britain-eu-continue-post-brexit-trade-talks-as-deadline-looms-idUKKBN28T0TS

Britain, EU continue post-Brexit trade talks as deadline looms

Britain and the European Union continued trade talks in Brussels on Saturday, without giving word on any progress made in resolving disagreements over fishing rights and fair competition rules, seen as the main obstacles to a deal.

With less than two weeks to go before Britain finally leaves the bloc’s orbit on Dec. 31, the two sides are under pressure to agree on a new relationship to safeguard almost a trillion dollars worth of trade from tariffs and quotas.

Talks continued at the expert level on Saturday in Brussels, an EU official said.

EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier had said on Friday that “just a few hours” remained to reach a post-Brexit trade deal. He cited “extremely difficult” negotiations over how the EU could retaliate if Britain backpedalled on production standards to win a competitive edge for its products, or if Britain cut European fishermen off from its fishing waters in the future.

European Parliament on Saturday repeated its call for a deal to be reached no later than this weekend, to give it time to properly ratify the agreement.

David McAllister, head of the parliament’s Brexit group, said the chamber could hold an emergency plenary on Dec. 29 if a deal was struck no later than this weekend.

“This requires that on Sunday evening at the latest we get a text, in order to start our prepared measures and work,” he told German broadcaster NDR.

The EU has long said it wants to safeguard the parliament’s right to exercise democratic oversight by voting on any deal sealed by the EU and UK negotiators.

However, if a deal arrived later than this weekend, the 27 EU member states could still endorse it on their own to allow for “provisional application”, a scenario that would be likely to upset European lawmakers.

[Derby]

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/12/battery-prices-have-fallen-88-percent-over-the-last-decade/

Battery prices have fallen 88 percent over the last decade

Cheaper batteries are making it easier to fight climate change.

[sudden and sharp]

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu/britain-eu-continue-post-brexit-trade-talks-as-deadline-looms-idUKKBN28T0TS

Britain, EU continue post-Brexit trade talks as deadline looms

Britain and the European Union continued trade talks in Brussels on Saturday, without giving word on any progress made in resolving disagreements over fishing rights and fair competition rules, seen as the main obstacles to a deal.

With less than two weeks to go before Britain finally leaves the bloc’s orbit on Dec. 31, the two sides are under pressure to agree on a new relationship to safeguard almost a trillion dollars worth of trade from tariffs and quotas.

Talks continued at the expert level on Saturday in Brussels, an EU official said.

EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier had said on Friday that “just a few hours” remained to reach a post-Brexit trade deal. He cited “extremely difficult” negotiations over how the EU could retaliate if Britain backpedalled on production standards to win a competitive edge for its products, or if Britain cut European fishermen off from its fishing waters in the future.

European Parliament on Saturday repeated its call for a deal to be reached no later than this weekend, to give it time to properly ratify the agreement.

David McAllister, head of the parliament’s Brexit group, said the chamber could hold an emergency plenary on Dec. 29 if a deal was struck no later than this weekend.

“This requires that on Sunday evening at the latest we get a text, in order to start our prepared measures and work,” he told German broadcaster NDR.

The EU has long said it wants to safeguard the parliament’s right to exercise democratic oversight by voting on any deal sealed by the EU and UK negotiators.

However, if a deal arrived later than this weekend, the 27 EU member states could still endorse it on their own to allow for “provisional application”, a scenario that would be likely to upset European lawmakers.

Como budas sin cabeza...

https://www.artnews.com/art-news/news/giant-buddha-sculpture-china-chongqing-1234579443/

[Derby]

https://www.jpost.com/international/japans-consumer-prices-fall-at-fastest-pace-in-decade-stoke-deflation-fears-652545

Japan's consumer prices fall at fastest pace in decade, stoke deflation fears

It was the fourth straight month of falls and the fastest pace of year-on-year decline since September 2010.

Japan’s core consumer prices dropped in November at their fastest pace in a decade as the coronavirus pandemic hit demand, stoking fears of a return to deflation and wiping out the benefits former premier Shinzo Abe’s stimulus policies.

The weak data will keep the Bank of Japan, which is meeting for a two-day rate review ending on Friday, under pressure to maintain its massive stimulus programme.

Core consumer prices, which exclude volatile fresh food costs, fell 0.9% in November from a year earlier, government data showed on Friday, matching a median market forecast.

It was the fourth straight month of falls and the fastest pace of year-on-year decline since September 2010.

While the drop was blamed largely on the government’s travel discount campaign and weak energy prices, it underscored how sluggish domestic demand was in keeping a lid on prices and hobbling the recovery from a pandemic-induced slump.

“The resurgence in inflections will keep people home and an expected decline in winter bonus payments will prevent a pickup in consumption,” said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.

“Consumer prices will keep falling heading into 2021.”

The economy grew at the fastest pace on record in July-September, rebounding sharply from its biggest postwar slump, as exports and consumption recovered from the initial hit from the pandemic.
But analysts expect any further recovery to be modest as a resurgence in infections clouds the outlook.

The Japanese capital Tokyo, faced with acute strains on its medical system from the COVID-19 pandemic, raised its alert level to the highest of four stages on Thursday as the number of new cases spiked to a record daily high of 822.

Japan’s cabinet on Tuesday approved a third supplementary budget to fund a $708 billion stimulus package, to speed up the economic recovery from its COVID-induced decline.

The government plans a record-high $1.03 trillion budget for the next fiscal year to maintain its support for companies and households hit by the pandemic, sources have told Reuters.

[Derby]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/commentisfree/2020/dec/19/will-there-be-runaway-inflation-next-year-not-if-wages-dont-rise

Will there be runaway inflation next year? Not if wages don't rise

The hawks are warning – once again – about the economy overheating. But a vaccine alone will not cause that

There is always an economist somewhere agonising about inflation. As we head towards Christmas with an inflation rate falling towards zero – it dipped to 0.3% in November – you might think they were mostly keeping their counsel.

Not a bit of it. The inflation worriers are out and about, spreading their gloomy message of imminent rising prices as the economy overheats uncontrollably post-Covid, post-Brexit.

Overheat? Surely that cannot be right when the economy is on track to be about 10% smaller at the end of the year than it was at the beginning, and is not expected by the Treasury’s official forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility, to recover its previous peak until the end of 2022.

An economic growth rate of 5.5% in 2021 and 6.6% in 2022 is the prediction from the OBR and forms the benchmark from which all Treasury decisions are made. This rate of growth may seem electrifying compared with the previous annual expansion of 1% to 2% seen over the past 10 years, but it is just playing catch-up and no more.

Over in the City, many analysts see it differently. They are concerned that the new year will bring such joy, mainly from widespread and successful vaccination programmes, that western economies will explode back to life in the summer. This supercharged recovery is something developed economies could cope with if industrial firms were ready and willing to match the extra demand with extra output to keep supply and demand in balance.

Not likely, say the inflation hawks. Brexit uncertainty, which has killed off any growth in business investment over the past four years, has combined with Covid-19 to hit Britain’s makers and producers hard. Expanding production will not be easy when so much of the kit used to make things is worn out and in need of an overhaul. Redundant workers will be displaced and not yet ready or able to join those industries that benefit from a bounce-back in activity.

That means, they say, that a return to a some form of new normal will lead to such a surge in demand for goods and services that businesses, faced with a relative scarcity of things to sell, can only respond by pushing up prices.

Making matters worse, central bank funds from their £1 trillion quantitative easing programmes, of which the Bank of England has supplied £875bn, will supercharge the trend. Funds yet to be lent to the corporate sector – and billions of pounds of central bank funds are sitting in the vaults of commercial banks – will fly out of the door as ultra-cheap loans.

The UK mortgage market, which was initially buoyed by Rishi Sunak’s temporary stamp duty cut and is now struggling while he refuses to maintain it beyond April next year, will be given extra legs, unaided by government subsidy. Consumers, desperate to cheer themselves up, will join the borrowing binge, further increasing the pressure on prices.

Without controls on the disbursement of central bank funds via higher interest rates, an overheating economy could see what in modern-day terms would be hyperinflation of 10% or more, the hawks believe.

David Owen, the chief European economist at the City firm Jefferies, said last week that this scenario could see the Bank cut rates in early 2021 into negative territory, to cope with the Brexit fallout, only to jack them up later in the year, to prevent overheating.

Some of this thinking appears to have filtered through to the public, as revealed in the Bank of England’s most recent attitudes study, which showed people expect inflation to leap over the next year to 3.8%.

It’s true there was an increase in inflation following the 2008 financial crisis, when it hit 5% in 2011, but it proved to be shortlived.

And that’s because the economy in the aftermath of the financial crash was full of nervous consumers, most of them stuck on the same wages – or worse – that they had enjoyed before 2008.

Without wage increases there can be no boom, at least not one that can be sustained. The government says it won’t pay public sector workers more than 1% next year in fairness to private sector workers who have seen their wages fall.

Maybe private sector wages will zoom ahead. It is possible. But even if this unlikely event were to take place next year, it is – like the OBR prediction for GDP – a matter of playing catch-up.

Even when unemployment was at a 40-year low in 2019, most of the rise in wages came from increases in the minimum wage. Obviously, that is welcome, but it shows that employers have no wish and no urgency to improve the living standards of their workers without being forced to do so. And that inflation is not a threat.

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/article/iraq-currency/update-2-iraq-devalues-dinar-as-oil-prices-squeeze-revenue-idUSL1N2IZ0BE

Iraq devalues dinar as oil prices squeeze revenue

[Derby]

https://www.eldiario.es/madrid/somos/tetuan/noticias/axa-renuncia-torres-oficinas-paseo-direccion-pide-licencia-vivienda-protegida_1_6515151.html

Axa renuncia a las oficinas de lujo y pide licencia para construir vivienda protegida en sus dos torres del Paseo de la Dirección

La compañía pretendía construir dos grandes torres de oficinas pero finalmente se ha pedido licencia para edificar más de 500 viviendas protegidas, tal y como prevee la licencia urbanística en vigor

Las torres de 25 plantas del final de Marqués de Viana no serán oficinas, como pretendía Axa Seguros, sino viviendas protegidas (nivel VPPL), como recoge su licencia de uso actual. Así se solicitó el pasado 10 de diciembre y saltó la liebre ayer, 17 de diciembre, en los comentarios del blog del arquitecto Luis Romero sobre el Paseo de la Dirección, lugar de referencia desde hace años para seguir los vericuetos de esta interminable operación urbanística

Las licencias pedidas son de 330 viviendas VPPL con garajes, trasteros y zonas comunes con tres sótanos (bajo más 24 plantas sobre rasante) para lo que será el 103 de Marqués de Viana; y un edificio de 209 viviendas VPPL en el número 133 del Paseo de la Dirección. Recordemos que las viviendas VPPL son de protección pública y precio limitado pero sus módulos están entre los más altos dentro de las protegidas.

[uno]

España cuenta con 321.496 viviendas turísticas, el 1,3% del parque total

https://www.lavanguardia.com/economia/20201217/6130044/viviendas-turisticas-espana-ine-catalunya-madrid-barcelona.html

[siempretarde]

A veces nos concentramos tanto en lo que vemos y en lo que vivimos en el dia a dia, que nos olvidamos de cosas importantes, un repaso de algo tan corto como un ano nos parece una eternidad.

Como era final de 2019, o el principio del 2020??. Todavia no habia covid (en europa), por lo tanto no podian ser tan malos como ahora?, o si ....

Cuando actuamos sobra la marcha no nos damos cuenta de los grandes aciertos. Por ejemplo: El precio de la vivienda nunca bajara.

Pongo el final de 2019 y el final del 2020 ambos eran la vision de como iba a desarollarse el ano siguiente segun los medios de comunicacion.

Por ultimo un mensaje tambien de final del 2019, de alguien que conocemos ....

Les animo a hacer algo asi (covid-free). Fin del 2019, comienzos 2020 y finales del 2020. Seguro que es interesante. Si todos hacen una vista atras del ano, por que no TE.

(Citar esta jodxxxx de un post cerrado, pero tomense su tiempo. A veces ahi es donde se disfruta).

Gracias Derby, kapi59ttp, Asustadisimos por ser los que cito, pero pueden extenderlo tranquilamente a el resto.


https://www.transicionestructural.net/index.php?topic=2503.msg172402#msg172402

« Respuesta #12 en: Diciembre 23, 2019, 09:24:17 am »

https://www.elconfidencial.com/vivienda/2019-12-23/vivienda-residencial-especial-inmobiliario-gurus_2370228/

    Adiós al 'boom' de precios y riesgo de caídas en Barcelona y Costa del Sol

    El mercado residencial se enfrenta en 2020 a un ejercicio de transición. Un ejercicio en el que se moderarán los fuertes incrementos de precios de los dos últimos años.

https://www.transicionestructural.net/index.php?topic=2540.msg188160#msg188160

os dejo unas cuantas noticias de los últimos días y me vuelvo a la cueva:

El precio de la vivienda en Barcelona bajará hasta un 30% en los próximos meses, según Barnes
https://www.idealista.com/news/inmobiliario/vivienda/2020/09/23/787232-el-precio-de-la-vivienda-en-barcelona-bajara-hasta-un-30-en-los-proximos-meses-segun

El sector inmobiliario reconoce que las caídas del precio de la vivienda llegarán en los próximos meses
https://www.eleconomista.es/vivienda/noticias/10949012/12/20/El-sector-inmobiliario-reconoce-que-las-caidas-del-precio-de-la-vivienda-llegaran-en-los-proximos-meses.html

El precio del suelo urbano se hunde un 15% y cae por debajo de los mínimos de 2013
https://www.eleconomista.es/vivienda/noticias/10772706/09/20/El-precio-del-suelo-urbano-se-hunde-un-15-y-cae-por-debajo-de-los-minimos-de-de-2013.html

La inversión inmobiliaria se desploma un 30% por el Covid Por el covid, o porque NO HAY DINERO.
https://www.expansion.com/empresas/inmobiliario/2020/12/15/5fd9023e468aebdb5d8b45a0.html

La compraventa de viviendas profundiza su caída anual en octubre al 13,3% y suma ocho meses de descensos
https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/10943334/12/20/La-compraventa-de-viviendas-profundiza-su-caida-anual-en-octubre-al-133-y-suma-ocho-meses-de-descensos.html

El precio de la vivienda en alquiler ‘pincha’ en Madrid, incluso en zonas prime
https://www.merca2.es/precio-vivienda-alquiler-pincha-madrid-incluso-zonas-prime/

La burbuja de los alquileres pincha en Madrid y Barcelona con fuertes caídas
https://www.elconfidencial.com/vivienda/2020-12-13/alquiler-precios-burbuja-mercado-inmobiliario-fotocasa_2865048/

La vivienda en España registrará las caídas más abultadas de Europa: un 10% en dos años
La vivienda en España se verá, junto a Reino Unido, mucho más castigada por la crisis y los efectos de la pandemia que el resto de Europa e incluso a nivel mundial
https://www.elconfidencial.com/amp/vivienda/2020-12-09/fitch-vivienda-precios-espana-mercado-inmobiliario_2865203/

No hay mas que darse una vuelta por fotocasa e idealista y ver cómo las rebajas de precio, incluso de los alquileres, es generalizada entre el 5 y el 10%, incluso en las zonas más vip.
2025 cada día más cerca 

https://www.transicionestructural.net/index.php?topic=2503.msg172401#msg172401

« Respuesta #11 en: Diciembre 23, 2019, 07:34:39 am »
2019, PRIMER AÑO DE REPINCHAZO; 2020, AÑO DE 'DESTRUCCIÓN'.—

Absolutamente 'nadie' —en el bando popularcapitalista español— duda de que, en este 2019 que termina:
1º) «ha comenzado la estabilización de precios en el recalentado sector inmobiliario» (Pisito); y
2º) «los tipos de interés ínfimos o negativos están 'destruyendo' el dinero y las pensiones» (Cartillita y Paguita).

Los capitalistitas están asustadísimos, para regocijo del Trabajo & Empresa. Saben agotadas:
— la campaña de pogromos antibichos iniciada en 2013, con la hotelización del inquilinato (Pisito); y
— la fantasía de normalización y capitalización (Cartillita y Paguita).

La verdad es:
1º) (Pisito) proceso de Repinchazo de la Reburbuja 2016-2018; y
2º) (Cartillita y Paguita) horizonte de Rendimiento Real Cero para casi todo activo financiero seguro y 'syrización', es decir, ajuste de las pensiones a la nueva realidad de dinero fortísimo usando para ello el caudal político de las izquierdas.

Recordemos la Clasificación de la Renta Primaria, recientemente reconfirmada por el Banco España, en la «Encuesta Financiera Familias 2017» (lectura obligatoria del primer enlace):
https://www.bde.es/f/webbde/GAP/Secciones/SalaPrensa/IntervencionesPublicas/DirectoresGenerales/economia/Arc/Fic/arce191219.pdf
https://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/InformesBoletinesRevistas/ArticulosAnaliticos/19/T4/descargar/Fich/be1904-art38.pdf

— Rentas productivas:
• Trabajo: rentas salariales netas de rentas aproductivas
• Empresa: rentas de actividades empresariales y profesionales —beneficio, dividendo— netas de rentas aproductivas
— Rentas aproductivas:
• Pisito: rentas inmobiliarias, ya alquileres, ya plusvalías
• Paguita: pensiones y subsidios
• Cartillita: rentas financieras fijas

Situación actual:

— Pisito: Enésimo publirreportaje inmobiliario, como siempre sin felicidad (mierdismo), pero ahora ya sin alegría siquiera:
https://www.lainformacion.com/especiales/vivienda-2020-precios-ventas-subida/#
Hoy, día de la Lotería de Navidad, ha salido en la televisión un asesor en tirantes aconsejando a los que les ha tocado que «no es momento de invertir en vivienda».

— Cartillita y Paguita: Enésimas deposiciones antisistema, respectivamente, pro-normalizacionista y pro-capitalización, con ofensa al Poder Económico (Soberanía Monetaria), evidentemente, procedentes de trabajadores-directivos del sector financiero, que van a lo suyo, que no es sino que el dinero de sus clientes rente mucho para, de ese rendimiento, extraer ellos sus supersalarios (el segundo enlace, por cortesía impagable de Derby):
https://www.elespanol.com/economia/empresas/20191221/suecia-acaba-tipos-negativos-leccion-europa/453584643_13.html
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/negative-interest-rates-are-destroying-our-pensions/ar-BBY4uPp

El primer enlace contiene dos falsedades relativas a los tipos de interés negativos:
— «son la destrucción del ahorro en dinero [faltaría añadir 'siempre que haya inflación']»; y
— «se sustentan en la estulticia de muchos bancos centrales y algunos de sus economistas» [como si tuvieran tanto Poder].
El segundo enlace va más allá en la mistificación:
— «son la destrucción de las pensiones [faltaría decir que solo afectaría a las privadas, que son 'de capitalización', es decir, funcionan con el (1+i)^n]».

Pero «el dinero no renta nada» porque es fortísimo. Las expectativas no son de inflación sino de deflación. Aparte de que, en el Capitalismo, manda el Capital, es decir los Recursos Propios —que se retribuyen con dividendos—; y no los Recursos Ajenos, es decir, el Pasivo Exigible o D.O.P., Dinero de Otras Personas —que es lo que se retribuye con intereses—.

El nivel de tipos de interés es cero o negativo porque es natural que lo sea, no por capricho de nadie, por dos razones:
— sobreerendeudamiento
— sobrevaloración inmobiliaria (demasiada cantidad de PIB-Renta hay que detraer para rentas inmobiliarias e hipotecarias).
Estamos muy endeudados y empeñados en que nuestros inmuebles 'valen' mucho. Además, tenemos muchos pensionistas. Es lógico que los rendimientos de lo que sea tengan presión a la baja.

Al mierdismo, con hipermierdismo. Parafraseando al magnate inmobiliario Trump con su 'yihad' comercial:
— Los repinchazos (Pisito) y destrucciones (Cartillita y Pensiones) son buenas y fáciles de ganar.

Dinero (mayúscula) es todo activo financiero, no solo el dinero estricto (minúscula), es decir, el activo financiero plenamente líquido, sin vencimiento ni rendimiento. Que el Dinero no rente nada significa que es tan fuerte que los adquirentes de los más seguros —depósitos, deuda pública— pueden incluso permitirse el lujo de que su rendimiento nominal sea negativo —lo que se pierde es menos de lo que se gana en poder de compra u otros atributos—. El problema es que, para ver esto, hace falta no tener:
— ni mentalidad merchera; cuando uno padece de ofuscación merchera, cree que Alá es el Mercado, 'la ilaha illa allah', https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TCEJOzoxvXA , intenta encontrar explicación leydeofertademandista a todo y se lía
— ni mentalidad inflacionista (por cierto, qué contradictorio es ansiar inflación y, a la vez, pedir que te bajen los impuestos, cuando la inflación, económicamente, es un impuesto).

Como el Dinero es más que el dinero estricto, el soberano monetario no tiene tanto poder para determinar el nivel general de tipos de interés como creen quienes le echan la culpa de las burbujas.

El poder tiene muy poco Poder y la Historia tiene leyes objetivas. Los tragavirotes que acceden a puestos relevantes, al comprobar en sus propias carnes lo mierdecilla que son, conspiran para intentar reconcentrar Poder en sus personas. El caudillismo y el culto a la personalidad han proliferado demasiado en el tardopopularcapitalismo por la desesperación que hay. Se le dice a los perdedores que la culpa la tiene media docena de funcionarios y van y se lo creen, los desdichados.

El tipo de interés es el precio del Dinero. Para el caudillismo, el precio del Dinero estaría fijado:
— arbitrariamente, por unos caudillitos que sirven en el banco central, y
— discrecionalmente, sin sujeción a procedimientos reglados.

El caudillismo yerra porque la Historia tiene leyes objetivas y el poder tiene muy poco Poder, pero, también, porque:
— una cosa es la liquidez (tener dinero) y otra la liquidez crediticia (tener crédito, es decir, acceso al préstamo); y
— una cosa son los tipos de interés de intervención del banco central (liquidez crediticia primaria intrasistema) y otra, el nivel general de tipos de interés de la economía (liquidez crediticia secundaria o extrasistema), porque el dinero estricto no es nada, cuantitativamente hablando, comparado con el dinero bancario y el dinero financiero emitido por los particulares.

El nivel de tipos de interés es ínfimo por razones históricas muy profundas determinantes del cambio de modelo popularcapitalista por el nuevo Era Cero (cero inflación). No es cierto que haya media docena de funcionarios que hayan acertado o equivocado poniendo, arbitraria y discrecionalmente, el nivel de tipos de interés demasiado bajo.

Pero lo que más clama al cielo es la mentira obscena de que los tipos bajos o negativos destruyen el dinero y las pensiones públicas 'de reparto'. ¡Es justo lo contrario!


P. S.: Todo el mundo sabe que la crisis financiera es posterior al Pinchazo de la Burbuja popularcapitalista inmobiliaria, de la que trae causa. Los bancos cayeron cuando se supo que los inmuebles no valían gran cosa. Entonces, ¿por qué los funcionarios madrileños se empeñan en que la causa es la consecuencia y viceversa? Nosotros tenemos la contestación. No es solo porque sean mismacestahuevones. Es que, todavía, no ha terminado el llanto y crujir de dientes. Falta el Repinchazo de la Reburbuja.

En la autobiografía del FROB (Autoridad de Resolución Ejecutiva), «10 años del FROB 2009-2019 Una década por la estabilidad financiera»:
http://www.frob.es/es/Documents/10a%c3%b1osdelFROB.pdf

— La palabra burbuja no sale ni una sola vez.

— La Reserva Federal de EEUU tiene la culpa de todo (p. 14)
«Las primeras señales de la crisis financiera se produjeron en EE. UU. La política de tipos de interés de la Reserva Federal dio lugar, entre los años 2000 y 2007, a un largo ciclo de crecimiento de los volúmenes de crédito, muy superior al crecimiento real de la economía».

— El sector inmobiliario es una 'pobre' víctima (p. 18)
«A medida que la crisis se prolongaba e intensificaba, el nivel de activos dudosos crecía significativamente. Y de manera particular los relacionados con el sector inmobiliario, al que la muy negativa evolución económica del país (y de los precios de la vivienda) afectaba especialmente».

Algún día exigiremos responsabilidad por este engaño.

[siempretarde]

Esta tambien creo que merece su hueco, en el que paso en 2020 que de repente todo es como "diferente".

Transición Estructural / Re:PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Otoño 2019
« Mensaje por PopArt en Septiembre 24, 2019, 10:36:49 am »
Me lo traigo del hilo de verano y añado eventos que considero de calidad a lo que inició Bendita Liquidez, sin ánimo de quitar hierro a los muy importantes mencionados por él mismo en su gran aportación:

- Miércoles, 7 de agosto de 2019: Jornada negra para los bonos (1), que marcan mínimos históricos
- Miércoles, 21 de agosto de 2019: Alemania emite bono a 30 años por primera vez a cupón cero, colocando sólo 824 de los 2 mil millones de euros ofertados, el ratio oferta-demanda más bajo desde 2011
- Lunes, 16 de septiembre de 2019: mayor subida diaria del petróleo desde 1991
- Martes, 17 de septiembre de 2019: el interés interbancario norteamericano tiene una subida récord y alcanza al 10%
- Miércoles, 18 de septiembre de 2019:la FED se ve obligada a abrir la ventanilla de repos por primera vez desde 2009
- Viernes, 20 de septiembre de 2019: Alemania aprueba una partida de gasto de 54 mil millones de euros hasta 2023 "para mitigar el cambio climático" (2)
- Lunes, 23 de septiembre de 2019: mayor quieba de una empresa turística de la historia (Thomas Cook)

Hay muchos más eventos de calidad reseñables, les animo a que completemos el timeline y vayamos refinándolo, dejando sólo lo más importante.

(1) El bono español a 30 años cae por primera vez por debajo del 1%, el de 10 años bate el record por abajo a 0.124%, y el bono alemán a 30 años bate su marca más baja hasta esa fecha, -0.147%. Otros bonos (US, Irlanda, Holanda, etc.) marcaron mínimo histórico en la misma sesión, en respuesta a una bajada de tipos de 50 puntos básicos del Banco de Nueva Zelanda y otras acciones de India y malos datos PMI en Europa

Links:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-bonds/unstoppable-german-bond-yields-slide-to-new-record-lows-idUSKCN1UX0O3
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-07/treasury-30-year-yield-closes-in-on-all-time-low-as-risks-grow
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/30-year-bond-yield

(2) La partida se conisderó insuficiente por toda la prensa y por los miles de manifestantes ecológico-apocalípticos que se concentraron en las calles (Fridays for Future). Se introducirán por primera vez en 2021 certificados de emisiones para el transporte a 10 €/tn emitida, y reconocen que no cumplirán el objetivo de reducción de emisiones a nivel país marcado para 2020, y probablemente tampoco el objetivo de 2025. Se prevé que las medidas impacten en los precios de los vuelos, que pueden encarecerse, mientras que los trayectos en ferrocarril se van a abaratar debido a bajadas de IVA de largo recorrido, y se invertirá en infraestructuras férreas hasta 2030

Link:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/20/world/europe/germany-climate-protection-merkel.html
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-49767649

https://www.transicionestructural.net/index.php?topic=2540.msg187632#msg187632

https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2020/11/draft-deal-proposes-cutting-eu-carbon-emissions-by-55-per-cent-by-2030/

Draft deal proposes cutting EU carbon emissions by 55 per cent by 2030
The EU has reportedly drafted a deal for its members to cut greenhouse gases by 55 per cent against 1990 levels by 2030 that will be put forth at a summit next month.


It is hoped that the draft conclusions, seen by Reuters, will be endorsed by the 27 member countries when they meet on December 10-11.

The European Commission is apparently keen to institute the new rules as it does not believe the continent will be able to stick to pledges to hit net zero carbon by 2050 without them.

With the UK having already left the bloc, it will not be subject to the new rules. Although it has made similar commitments to reach net zero by 2050 it is currently far from being on course to reach its target.

The UN climate science panel has said in the past that net zero carbon dioxide emissions need to be achieved globally by 2050 in order to keep temperature rises below 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial times this century.

According to Reuters, the document it has seen will push for the 2030 target to be delivered “collectively” by EU countries.

This could help some states to overcome fears about the economic impact that such measures may have, such as the Czech Republic which has been unwilling to commit to such a target individually but has a softer stance if the ruling is adhered to by the bloc as a whole.

Poland, which has an economy heavily dependent on high-carbon coal, has also been sceptical over enhanced climate targets.

Last month, the EU Commission said it would not block the development of more nuclear power stations in Europe, although it warned about the vast cost of building, running and decommissioning them.

But while the centralised power facilities of member states are an easy target for decarbonisation, heavily polluting transport sectors are much more difficult to tackle.

A recent report found that the lack of available charging points around the EU is one of the factors holding the continent back from mass adoption of electric cars.

[Derby]

https://www.knowledgeleaderscapital.com/2020/12/16/more-evidence-of-stagflation-in-the-pmis/

More Evidence of Stagflation in the PMIs

Markit’s preliminary December PMIs were released today and our takeaway is that they show the risk of some kind of stagflation is gaining a little steam. In both the manufacturing and services surveys, new business/new orders dropped while input prices rose. In the case of the services PMI, input prices rose to the highest on record for the second straight month. In the manufacturing survey, input prices rose to the highest level since mid-2018, just after the tax deal was inked. When such divergences persisted in the past it was prices that caught down to business activity. Will it be so this time around, or will prices continue to increase regardless? Currently, the bond market is voting on the latter scenario, which is why we continue to keep our eye on breakeven inflation expectations.

[Derby]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/20/uk-faces-brexit-limbo-after-talks-deadline-missed

UK faces Brexit limbo after talks deadline missed

Britain risks weeks without trade transition plans from 1 January after missing EU parliament Sunday deadline

Negotiators of a Brexit trade deal inched towards a compromise on fishing rights on Sunday but missed a major deadline, raising the prospect of weeks without arrangements from 1 January even in the event of agreement.

The teams led by the chief UK negotiator, David Frost, and his EU counterpart, Michel Barnier, were expected to continue talks on Monday despite the European parliament’s notice that it would not vote on a deal if not secured by midnight on Sunday.

A UK government source said: “Teams have been negotiating throughout the day and expect to continue tomorrow. Talks remain difficult and significant differences remain. We continue to explore every route to a deal that is in line with the fundamental principles we brought into the negotiations.”

Frost met Barnier on Sunday afternoon to discuss the latest EU proposals on fisheries, with the UK side posing a series of questions to be answered on Monday, raising some hope of progress.

The UK health secretary, Matt Hancock, said the talks had been derailed in recent days after the EU “put in some unreasonable demands” on fisheries, but that he was still hopeful of an agreement before Christmas. “I’m sure that a deal can be done, but obviously it needs movement on the EU side,” he said.

The failure to meet the European parliament’s deadline means that ministers on the EU council representing the bloc’s capitals may need to “provisionally apply” a deal on 1 January to avoid a no-deal exit until parliament votes later in the month.

If the talks go much deeper into December, however, there may not be time for the EU capitals to translate and scrutinise the agreed text, leaving the UK to leave the transition period without new trade and security arrangements with Brussels.

Contingency measures would have to be agreed to bridge the gap before a deal could come into force, but such a scenario raises the danger of ports and security services being left in legal limbo.

Bernd Lange, the German chair of the parliament’s trade committee, the key body in the chamber’s ratification process, tweeted: “The consequence of no deal tonight is obvious: the [European parliament] does not know the consolidated text, is not in a position to scrutinise before the end of the transition period. So make preparations now for a no-deal period and agree emergency measures with UK.”

A major sticking point in the talks remains the EU’s demand to be able to apply tariffs or entirely block the entry of British goods in the event of the government closing off access to UK seas after a transition period to phase in new fishing arrangements for European vessels.

Under the British proposal, Boris Johnson insists that UK-flagged vessels have exclusive access to the six-to-12 nautical mile zone off the British coast, fished for centuries by French and Belgian vessels. Such a move would lead to some British exports being kept out of its biggest market under the proposal Brussels has tabled.

Barnier tweeted: “In this crucial moment for the negotiations, we continue to work hard with David Frost and his team.

“The EU remains committed to a fair, reciprocal & balanced agreement. We respect the sovereignty of the UK. And we expect the same.

“Both EU and the UK must have the right to set their own laws & control their own waters. And we should both be able to act when our interests are at stake.”

His comments indicate that there has been some movement on the issue, with both sides able to take measures should their interests be threatened, but UK sources downplayed any suggestion of a breakthrough.

The exhausted British team in the UK mission to the EU, many of whom have been away from home for the last two weeks, were served mince pies and mulled wine, delivered from the British ambassador’s residence as they worked through Sunday.

Clément Beaune, France’s European affairs minister, said he believed a deal with the UK remained doable.

“We have given ourselves a few more days because we think that an agreement is still possible,” he said. “It’s hard, not sure, but worth a try. More than an agreement, we want a good agreement, in particular preserving fishing and fair conditions of competition. The negotiations should be concluded in the next few days. We know where our red lines are and what interests we don’t want to sacrifice.”

All the political groups in the European parliament apart from the Greens had agreed on the Sunday night deadline for a deal.

Philippe Lamberts, the co-leader of the Greens, said: “The position that we defend is that negotiators should be allowed to work until the last minute, and simply give us time in January and February to scrutinise and ratify any deal. I’m watching quite gleefully, I must say, because I was quite angry at my colleagues and now they will look stupid.”

[pedrito]

Reino Unido se prepara para su 'semana negra' ante una nueva cepa "fuera de control"

https://www.elconfidencial.com/mundo/europa/2020-12-20/inglaterra-prepara-semana-negra-nueva-cepa-virus-fuera-control_2880111/

Curioso, curioso...

A horas de un brexit sin control, aparece una nueva cepa "fuera de control"...y precisamente en Inglaterra. Con lo grande que es el mundo, con cinco continentes, cientos de paises, con el virus esparcido por todo el mundoo, y el virus ese tiene que mutar justo en Inglaterra.

¿será que algunos se están aficionando más de la cuenta a las semanas negras sin control?

[Derby]

Se está montando la marimorena en UK...

Reino Unido se prepara para su 'semana negra' ante una nueva cepa "fuera de control"

https://www.elconfidencial.com/mundo/europa/2020-12-20/inglaterra-prepara-semana-negra-nueva-cepa-virus-fuera-control_2880111/

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-55389505

Covid-19: Dover port halts exports to France for 48 hours

France will stop lorry movements from the UK for 48 hours in the wake of fresh concerns over the spread of a new strain of coronavirus in the UK.