PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Verano 2022

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://twitter.com/carpatos/status/1559094108643381249

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4534398-wild-abandon-bounces-back

Wild Abandon Bounces Back

*As risk markets have rebounded over the past month, FOMO has resumed with retail flows moving back to the sketchiest and over-valued securities and shorts being forced to buy back positions.

*So long as wild abandon and gambling permeate, we can be sure that the cycle bottom is nowhere nigh.

*The first down leg was triggered by concern about central banks hiking interest rates and the reality that higher rates reduce free cash flow and profits.

As risk markets have rebounded over the past month, FOMO has resumed with retail flows moving back to the sketchiest and over-valued securities and shorts being forced to buy back positions. The basket of most-shorted stocks tracked by Goldman Sachs is up almost 39% this quarter. As shown below (from Goldman Sachs Prime), the past month has seen the 3rd biggest hedge fund short-covering event of the last decade.



Retail investors, who watched their post-pandemic profits wiped out this year and dashed out of stocks in June, are rushing back. Share purchases from small-fry traders jumped 62% during the week through Tuesday, industry data compiled by JPMorgan Chase & Co. show.

Like Monty Python's Black Knight, animal spirits have been injured year to date, but they're "not dead yet."

So long as wild abandon and gambling permeate, we can be sure that the cycle bottom is nowhere nigh. As in 2003 and 2009, when cycle lows finally present, very few will have the cash or will to buy.

The first down leg was triggered by concern about central banks hiking interest rates and the reality that higher rates reduce free cash flow and profits. With some $130 trillion of private debt globally, up 250% since 2000, the next down leg will come amid spreading solvency problems. Those capital injuries are always more grave. See more in Volatility Investor Warns of False Dawn for US equities market:

"We are getting close to the end of phase 1, a repricing of growth. Phase 2 is more interesting to me. It is more of a credit cycle. People are upset that they've lost money, but there is no fear. The headlines in Q4 and Q1 are going to be of people having trouble refinancing, and nervous investors will start selling. By Q4 or Q1 it will switch to fear."

[sudden and sharp]

Dan igual los datos... nos quieren asustados --vaya usted a saber por qué--; y mucho:


Una guerra nuclear entre EE.UU. y Rusia provocaría una hambruna mundial y 5.000 millones de muertos
https://www.abc.es/ciencia/guerra-nuclear-rusia-provocaria-hambruna-mundial-5000-20220815141333-nt.html
Un conflicto nuclear generaría ingentes cantidades de ceniza que bloquearían la luz solar y diezmarían la producción de cultivos, según un nuevo estudio














AL CARAJO YA...! OTRA DE BRAVAS       



[ No cuela. Acabo de volver de la playa... y no podía estar más abarrotada. (Lo reconocían hasta los hosteleros, lo nunca visto, que siempre se están quejando. Ni gasolina, ni puñetas, todo el mundo en la calle...) ]

[ORION]

House flippers triggered the US housing market crash, not poor subprime borrowers

The grim tale of America’s “subprime mortgage crisis” delivers one of those stinging moral slaps that Americans seem to favor in their histories. Poor people were reckless and stupid, banks got greedy. Layer in some Wall Street dark arts, and there you have it: a global financial crisis.

Dark arts notwithstanding, that’s not what really happened, though.

Mounting evidence suggests that the notion that the 2007 crash happened because people with shoddy credit borrowed to buy houses they couldn’t afford is just plain wrong. The latest comes in a new NBER working paper arguing that it was wealthy or middle-class house-flipping speculators who blew up the bubble to cataclysmic proportions, and then wrecked local housing markets when they defaulted en masse.

Analyzing a huge dataset of anonymous credit scores from Equifax, a credit reporting bureau, the economists—Stefania Albanesi of the University of Pittsburgh, the University of Geneva’s Giacomo De Giorgi, and Jaromir Nosal of Boston College—found that the biggest growth of mortgage debt during the housing boom came from those with credit scores in the middle and top of the credit score distribution—and that these borrowers accounted for a disproportionate share of defaults.

As for those with low credit scores—the “subprime” borrowers who supposedly caused the crisis—their borrowing stayed virtually constant throughout the boom. And while it’s true that these types of borrowers usually default at relatively higher rates, they didn’t after the 2007 housing collapse. The lowest quartile in the credit score distribution accounted for 70% of foreclosures during the boom years, falling to just 35% during the crisis.

So why were relatively wealthier folks borrowing so much?

Recall that back then the mantra was that housing prices would keep rising forever. Since owning a home is one of the best ways to build wealth in America, most of those with sterling credit already did. Low rates encouraged some of them to parlay their credit pedigree and growing existing home value into mortgages for additional homes. Some of these were long-term purchases (e.g. vacation homes, homes held for rental income). But as a Federal Reserve Bank of New York report from 2011 reveals (pdf, p.26), an increasing share bought with the aim to “flip” the home a few months or years later for a tidy profit.

In early 2004, a little more than 10% of borrowers in the top three quartiles of the credit score distribution had two or more mortgages. By 2007, that had leapt to around 16% for borrowers in the middle half of the credit-score distribution, and around 13% among that top quartile. However, for the lowest quartile (i.e. subprime), only around 6% had more than one mortgage, rising to around 8% by 2007.

Clearly, richer borrowers were driving the trend. For instance, among prime borrowers, the growth in per capita mortgage balances held by investors was around 20 percentage points higher for those with the highest credit scores than those with the lowest.

Come 2007, investors accounted for 43% of the total mortgage balance for the top credit-score quartile. For the middle two quartiles, speculators were responsible for around 35% in 2007.

This set up a dangerous dynamic. The mortgages these prime borrowers were able to secure were much bigger than those taken out by poor homebuyers. Worse, speculators have less incentive to hold onto their extra homes than those who only own one home. So when the housing market started tumbling and the economy soon followed, they were much more willing to default and foreclose, as you can see in the chart below.

This would explain why, as the researchers put it, “the rise in mortgage delinquencies is virtually exclusively accounted for by real estate investors.” The share of single-mortgage borrowers who couldn’t keep up on their loan payments barely budged between 2005 and 2008.

Recent research—particularly that by Antoinette Schoar, a finance professor at MIT Sloan—has been helping rewrite the received wisdom of the “subprime crisis” that has blamed the crisis on poor, reckless borrowers for the better part of a decade. Schoar’s work reveals that borrowing and defaults had risen proportionally across income levels and credit score, but that those with sounder credit ratings drove the rise in delinquencies. This new paper’s investigation into the habits of middle- and upper-income real estate speculators in the run-up to the crisis marks yet another chapter of the history books in desperate need of revision.

https://qz.com/1064061/house-flippers-triggered-the-us-housing-market-crash-not-poor-subprime-borrowers-a-new-study-shows/

Por fin alguien que desmonta con evidencias numéricas la falacia NINJA y de las “hipotecas locas”, términos que por otra parte jugaron su papel clave en la comunicación del anterior reventón como exógeno e importado (en España recuerdo la vergonzante versión cebolletera de Abadía) sin dañar nuestras sucias consciencias de house flippers (=PASAPISEROS). En este sentido, burbuja de imprudencia vende más que burbuja de codicia.

Shame on them.

Me pregunto si algún día tendremos un análisis forense de los pinchazos patrios.
Obviamente es una pregunta retórica.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-15/roubini-sees-either-us-hard-landing-or-uncontrolled-inflation

Roubini Sees Either US Hard Landing or Uncontrolled Inflation

*He says key to inflation is what pace of its decline will be
*Markets expecting a Fed rate-hike pivot sounds ‘delusional’

Economist Nouriel Roubini said there are two options for the US economy, given the Federal Reserve’s most-aggressive tightening campaign in decades: an economic hard landing or inflation at a persistently elevated level.

“The fed funds rate should be going well above 4% -- 4.5%-5% in my view -- to really push inflation towards 2%,” the chairman and chief executive officer of Roubini Macro Associates said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Balance of Power With David Westin” Monday.

“If that doesn’t happen, inflation expectations are going to get unhinged,” said Roubini, whose prescience on the housing bubble that led to the US financial crisis of more than a decade ago earned him the nickname Dr. Doom. “Or if that happens, then we are going to have a hard landing. Either way, either you get a hard landing or you get inflation getting out of control.”

The central bank’s latest dot plot of interest-rate projections published after the June policy meeting suggests that the federal funds rate will reach around 3.375% by the end of this year and almost 3.8% by the end of 2023. That’s not hawkish enough, said Roubini.

“Even if you have 3.8%, we have inflation still well above target around 8%, falling only gradually,” he said. “Markets expecting a pivot and the Fed cutting rates next year to me sounds delusional.”(...)

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/inmobiliario/2022/08/15/62f95dc6468aeb6d108b45bf.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/mercados/2022/08/15/62f937b9468aebe5678b4585.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/financial-times/2022/08/15/62f92a76468aeb772c8b4604.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2022/08/15/62f97313468aeb68228b4622.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/politica/2022/08/15/62f974fe468aeb037a8b4615.html

Saludos.

[saturno]

House flippers triggered the US housing market crash, not poor subprime borrowers
By Gwynn Guilford
Published August 29, 2017Last updated July 20, 2022


Recent research—particularly that by Antoinette Schoar, a finance professor at MIT Sloan—has been helping rewrite the received wisdom of the “subprime crisis” that has blamed the crisis on poor, reckless borrowers for the better part of a decade. Schoar’s work reveals that borrowing and defaults had risen proportionally across income levels and credit score, but that those with sounder credit ratings drove the rise in delinquencies. This new paper’s investigation into the habits of middle- and upper-income real estate speculators in the run-up to the crisis marks yet another chapter of the history books in desperate need of revision.

https://qz.com/1064061/house-flippers-triggered-the-us-housing-market-crash-not-poor-subprime-borrowers-a-new-study-shows/

qué buenooooo. Es de 2017 pero o no se comentó, o no lo recordaba (o no lo había entendido)

Donde habla del estudio de  Antoinette Schoar remite a otro artículo de 2016
"Rethinking how the housing crisis happened"
http://mitsloan.mit.edu/newsroom/articles/rethinking-how-the-housing-crisis-happened/
By Zach Church Nov 9, 2016

    In a paper forthcoming in The Review of Financial Studies titled “Loan Originations and Defaults in the Mortgage Crisis: The Role of the Middle Class,” Schoar and her co-authors (MIT Sloan PhD graduates Manuel Adelino and Felipe Severino, now professors at Duke University and Dartmouth College, respectively) show that in the run-up to the housing collapse, both credit and defaults expanded proportionally across borrowers of every income level and every credit rating. And yet when the bottom fell out, the researchers found, there was a sharp increase in delinquencies for middle-class borrowers and borrowers with “prime” — or high — credit ratings.

De todos modos, lo que esto indica es que la teoría de los "precios de "mercado" (oferta demanda) es una ficción,

Es más sencillo. Ocurre que el ciclo de los precios inmobiliarios es superior o igual al ciclo de una convicción o al ciclo de reproducción del Trabajo. A lo que se llama emprender una carrera. La vida humana en sentido productivo, Puede incluso superar el ciclo de la memoria humana (los viejos tienen memoria, pero su ciclo de reproducción dura escasamente 30 años, durante los que toman las decisiones vitales que afectan al ciclo histórico).

El motivo de semejante duración es fácil de entender, No, no se trata un ciclo financiero ligado al mercado (cuya escala de tiempo es la de la reproducción de propio bien o servicio  ofertado y demandado) sino de un ciclo histórico, Es decir, lo que llamamos ciclos históricos, Como aquellos que nacen crecen y mueren a raíz de algún invento tecnoloógico (el acero sobre el bronce), de alguna invasión (Roma), por ejemplo, o como nos ha ocurrido ahora (desde principios del XX), a raiz de un desequilibrio desequilibrio demográfico ("Baby boom"-- definición de Occidente, no de España), o más sencillamente, si prefieren, a raíz de una ideologia sostenida por las condiciones estructurales mencionadas (Thatcherismo, popularcapitalismo, etc,)

Entramos en tiempo de revolución, es tiempo de organizarse (u organizarla) e incluso nos corresponde a los que aqui estamos, sencillamente por que correremos peligro (físico, no sólo financiero) durante su transcurso, Pienso en el desmantelamiento del Estado social y de los derechos civiles por los wokistas (de izquierda y de derecha) con los popularcapitalistas de carne de cañon,

____ 

NB: cuando el Maestro dice que no habrá revoluciones, revueltas, etc, lo asimila a los motines del XIX, Pero las revoluciones no se miden por la sangre vertida, sino por sus efectos organizados como durante el s XX en América latina, en Asia, en Rusia tras la caida del Muro, ahora en Ucrania (y me refiero a la revolución ideológica que siguió al golpe de Estado de 2014), Piensen en ciclos históricos, y si quieren, llamen "revolución" al cambio de signo de la Historia, Lo importante no es la denominación o el signo, sino entender las diferencias entre los ciclos mercantiles/financieros y los ciclos históricos, El Maestro usa la metáfora del cambio coyuntural / estructural, pero no acaba de clarificar la diferencia entre cambio económico / histórico, De hecho, así es como entiendo su manía de poner fechas económicas, cuando realmente yo me quedaría con la del 24 de febrero 2022 cuyas consecuencias __históricas__ ya son definitivas. Y sin vuelta atrás, 

NB2: @Negrule, una petitión; ¿puedes usar [quote[ ]/quote] ? e intentar respetar la forma convencional de citar el titulo, link y  la  fecha de los artículos que traes ? (Mira como hace Derby)
Suelo citar vuestros posts en otros foros, y es a menudo, por el nivelazo que os traéis todos
Creo que los nombres de Derby Cadavre  Senslev o el tuyo ya suenan familiares porque suelo poner un XGracias Negrule con enlace a TE.net Como en el caso de este post tuyo, XMerci Negrule

[sudden and sharp]

[...] Entramos en tiempo de revolución, es tiempo de organizarse (u organizarla) e incluso nos corresponde a los que aqui estamos, sencillamente por que correremos peligro (físico, no sólo financiero) durante su transcurso, Pienso en el desmantelamiento del Estado social y de los derechos civiles por los wokistas (de izquierda y de derecha) con los popularcapitalistas de carne de cañon,

No pareces haberte enterao...:







La revolución... je, je. (Que trabajen algunos, y no sólo los de siempre, sí que va a ser revolucionario.)

[puede ser]

Sobre el problema de la energía, que es capital en varios órdenes exponenciales respecto a otros problemas como la alimentación o el equilibrio monetario y financiero, estoy cada vez más perplejo y desasosegado.

El progreso del mundo contemporáneo se basa esencialmente en el uso de las energías fósiles. Quien niegue eso no se entera. Se vio con el carbón, pero con petróleo y gas natural hemos alcanzado niveles de obviedad. La nuestra sociedad, la vida tal y como la conocemos, depende de eso. Hoy se van a mover en el planeta centenares de millones de personas a distancias y velocidades sencillamente sobrenaturales, y se van a producir recursos primarios y secundarios a una escala incomprensible gracias a ello. Sin petróleo y sin gas, hoy por hoy, estamos muertos, a niveles de hambruna africana en Sudán o Níger en la gran sequía de los 80, pero a niveles planetarios.

Pero el problema que yo me planteo es distinto. ¿Por qué las élites políticas, financieras y empresariales del planeta están empeñados en destruir la prosperidad de las sociedades industriales imaginando formas y razones de restringir el uso de fósiles? Porque de lo que se trata es de eso. Elementos como el mercado de derechos de CO2, o los impuestos a la gasolina y electricidad, o la moratoria de nuclear y carbón, o las protestas por el "vaciamiento de embalses", obedecen sólo a intentos conscientes de 'descarbonizar y desfuelizar' nuestra sociedad. ¿Por qué? Sólo veo dos opciones:

1. Nuestras élites políticas, empresariales y financieras han sido enloquecidas por unos gurús enloquecidos que defienden la vuelta al mundo preindustrial. No podemos descartarlo del todo. Debemos tener claro que en el mundo preindustrial las diferencias de riqueza y de nivel de vida eran salvajemente mayores que ahora, y los ricos seguirán teniendo acceso a tecnología y energía de escala. Hay distopías de sobra sobre ese mundo.

2. Saben algo que no quieren que la gente sepa.

No veo más opciones. Las mayores inteligencias del planeta nos empujan a un mundo que sabemos perfectamente que será más pobre, más siniestro y más violento que el que ya tenemos. ¿Por qué?

La respuesta correcta es la 2 ( saben algo que no quieren que la gente sepa). ¿Y qué es eso?, pues el peak-oil y lo que conlleva: guerra por los hidrocarburos que quedan y racionalización en el uso de los mismos priorizando lo productivo.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.larazon.es/sociedad/20220814/4xqn3nmka5eftkom5taqm5hbdu.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

Canada Plans Massive Wind-Powered Plant Producing Hydrogen for Germany
Posted by EditorDavid on Monday August 15, 2022 @12:35AM from the going-green dept.

The leaders of Canada and Germany will sign a multibillion-dollar green energy agreement this month "that could prove pivotal to Canada's nascent hydrogen industry," reports CTV News:

The German government on Friday issued a statement confirming the agreement will be signed August 23 in Stephenville, where a Newfoundland-based company plans to build a zero-emission plant that will use wind energy to produce hydrogen and amonia for export.

If approved, the project would be the first of its kind in Canada.

Germany is keen to find new sources of energy because Russia's invasion of Ukraine has led to a surge in natural gas prices.... Meanwhile, the company behind the Newfoundland project, World Energy GH2, has said the first phase of the proposal calls for building up 164 onshore wind turbines to power a hydrogen production facility at the deep-sea port at Stephenville.

Long-term plans call for tripling the size of the project.... "The development of large-scale green hydrogen production facilities is just starting, providing (Newfoundland and Labrador) and Canada with the opportunity and advantages of being a first mover in the green energy sector," the proposal says....

The company says construction of its first wind farm is slated for late next year on the Port au Port Peninsula.

Thanks to Slashdot reader theshowmecanuck for sharing the article.

Saludos.