PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Verano 2022

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-19/ecb-says-pandemic-behavioral-shifts-may-cushion-housing-market

ECB Says Pandemic Behavioral Shifts May Cushion Housing Market

Shifting consumer preferences due to the pandemic may help cushion euro-area property prices as interest rates rise, according to the European Central Bank.

Mortgage rates have climbed significantly in the first half of 2022, which can particularly weigh on house prices and investment when coming from an environment of low borrowing costs, ECB researchers Niccolo Battistini, Johannes Gareis and Moreno Roma said in an economic bulletin published Monday.



As the ECB exits years of ultra-loose monetary policy, models suggest a one-percentage-point increase in mortgage rates could lead to house-price drops of about 9% after two years, they said.

But the effect could be softened as households attach greater value to more spacious properties that allow work from home, with prices for detached houses and residential real estate outside euro-zone capitals having outpaced other options.

“Pandemic-induced shifts in housing preferences could counteract higher mortgage rates and could explain some of the resilience which has been observed in the euro-area housing market,” the report said.

https://www.eleconomista.es/vivienda-inmobiliario/noticias/11951545/09/22/El-BCE-cree-que-la-subida-de-tipos-puede-provocar-una-caida-del-precio-de-la-vivienda-mayor-a-la-de-otros-tiempos.html

El BCE cree que la subida de tipos puede provocar una caída del precio de la vivienda mayor que en otras ocasiones

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/focus/2022/html/ecb.ebbox202206_04~786da4a23a.en.html

[Derby]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/supply-chain-decoupling-from-china-gets-sharper-teeth-11663591740

Supply-Chain Decoupling From China Gets Sharper Teeth

Breaking of links with China to start gaining steam as governments act to secure supply chains

Covid-19, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and rising geopolitical risks in Asia have thrown a wrench into global supply chains. That has reinvigorated the push to put key supply links back onshore—particularly those currently located in manufacturing juggernaut China.

A full “decoupling,” meaning the breaking of economic links with China, remains unlikely, but supply chains would become less integrated than in the past. That would have significant consequences for both businesses and consumers—and probably for long-run inflation expectations as well.

Two proposed laws in Europe are the latest case in point. The European Union proposed a ban on products made using forced labor last Wednesday. It doesn’t name China but alleged forced labor in the country’s Xinjiang region is clearly a main target. A few United Nations reports have added impetus in recent weeks. A U.N. expert published a report saying it is “reasonable to conclude” that forced labor has taken place in Xinjiang. And the U.N. human-rights agency said China has committed crimes against Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities. China denies such claims.

The proposed law looks less harsh than its U.S. equivalent. The U.S. legislation puts the onus on importers to prove that products from Xinjiang aren’t made with forced labor—an incredibly high bar. The EU proposal doesn’t. Products would only be blocked at the conclusion of an investigation. That, however, could change as the proposal needs approval from the Council of the European Union and the European Parliament.

(...)Another proposal from Europe tries to directly address such dominance, which also extends to the processing of lithium and other minerals critical for green energy applications. If passed, the law would attempt to speed up domestic production, processing and recycling of such raw materials. The way Europe sleepwalked into an energy crisis due to overreliance on Russia for oil and gas has doubtless helped focus minds.

“Lithium and rare earths will soon be more important than oil and gas,” said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last week. China processes almost 90% of rare earths and 60% of lithium, according to Ms. von der Leyen.

All of this follows similar moves in the U.S. The healthcare, climate and tax law passed in August provides incentives for domestic manufacturing of clean-energy products such as batteries and solar panels. Washington is also implementing policies to encourage the onshoring of semiconductors and biotechnology.

Such onshoring will take years and a full-scale relocation of manufacturing jobs back to the West is unrealistic. Friendlier or closer countries such as Vietnam and Mexico will probably be big beneficiaries—particularly those that already have free-trade agreements with the U.S. or the EU.

But the rapid globalization of the past few decades seems likely to take a pause. Businesses, consumers and governments will gain a measure of reliability and peace of mind—but they should be prepared to pay up too.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-19/ecb-s-de-cos-backs-more-gradual-hikes-to-safeguard-economy

ECB’s De Cos Backs More Gradual Hikes to Safeguard Economy

*De Cos cautions against ‘rapid convergence’ to 2% price goal
*More hawkish ECB officials are currently driving policy

European Central Bank Governing Council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos signaled he prefers a more gradual approach to raising interest rates to confront record euro-zone inflation.

While saying that borrowing costs need to rise further with prices surging at almost five times the 2% target, the Spanish central bank chief warned that the 19-member euro area is facing a marked slowdown in activity.

“Our actions affect inflation very gradually, reaching their maximum impact after about two years,” De Cos said Monday in a speech in Almeria, Spain. Even if the impact were more immediate, “it may not be desirable to force an excessively rapid convergence of inflation to 2%, due to the excessive impact on activity and employment that this would entail.”



It’s the first time de Cos, one of the ECB’s most dovish officials, has spoken since this month’s historic three-quarter-point hike, which he said was justified by the inflation outlook. That move matched the recent tough action taken by the Federal Reserve and highlighted how the hawks in Frankfurt currently dominate the battle to curb inflation.

The weekend saw Bundesbank chief Joachim Nagel urge officials to be “determined” in implementing more rate hikes as price gains approach double digits -- even if doing so drags down economic expansion.

Earlier Monday, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said a slowdown in Europe’s growth isn’t enough on its own to curb consumer prices.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-19/us-10-year-yield-rises-to-3-5-for-first-time-since-2011

US 10-Year Yield Rises to 3.5% for First Time Since 2011

*75bps hike at September FOMC priced in; some expect 100bps
*Traders see rising chance of a downturn that’ll lead to easing

The 10-year Treasury yield briefly rose above 3.50% for the first time since 2011 on Monday, with the bond market extending its bearish run ahead of another jumbo rate hike expected this week by the Federal Reserve to bring down inflation.

The 10-year yield jumped as much as 6.6 basis points to 3.516%, breaking above a psychological level that held in mid-June. Still the main selling pressure in the Treasury market remained focused on the policy sensitive two-year note with the benchmark rising as much as 9 basis points to 3.96%, marking a fresh high since October 2007.



Traders have wagered that another three-quarter point hike at this week’s Fed review is largely a done deal. Talk has emerged of a 100-basis point move to rein in price pressures that have shown little signs of easing even after the recent round of rate increases.(...)

[el malo]

No se vayan todavía... que aun hay más.




Josep Borrell: “Es el momento de resistir, no podemos arrugarnos ahora”
https://www.lavanguardia.com/internacional/20220916/8527991/josep-borrell-momento-resistir-no-podemos-arrugarnos-ahora.html
Los aplausos a la valentía del pueblo ucraniano casi resonaban en la Eurocámara cuando Josep Borrell se sentó con La Vanguardia para charlar de los dos grandes temas, con permiso de la monarquía británica, de la actualidad europea: Ucrania y la energía. La guerra “ha entrado en una nueva fase”, dice el alto representante para Asuntos Exteriores de la Unión Europea, preocupado porque la ciudadanía entienda lo que está en juego.



Rendirse no ha estado NUNCA sobre la mesa... Si sale a colación ahora la palabra "arrugarse" es porque...

... TRADUCIENDO ...

Ya tenemos el 120% de gas para el invierno... y el 250% de la armas sobre el terreno...

... y al Putin le va a caer la del PULPO.







Judas Priest - Screaming for Vengeance (Official Audio)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TN7Lv0PR4Q8

Eso explica la visita de BoJo a Ucrania cuando tenían la tregua encima de la mesa. Que Ucrania se rindiera (o incluso que aceptara las condiciones rusas para quedarse igual) nunca fue una opción (para Europa, que no pone ni un sólo muerto en la mesa).

Un mundo nuevo con dos bloques (occidental por un lado, BRICS + satélites por otro). Un nuevo telón de acero y dos sistemas.

Lo jodido es que esta vez es el otro bloque el que tiene la energía barata, las materias primas y la producción industrial, y el nuestro el de la burocracia sin sentido y los derechos sociales recortándose.

Al final los resilientísimos europeos seremos los únicos que traguemos con el monstruoso impuesto al CO2, hasta que estemos todos en la miseria o instalando guillotinas en Bruselas (y Madrid, y París, y Roma). Si esto no es plan para dinamitar la UE desde dentro que baje el Señor y lo vea porque a mí cada vez me cuesta más entender qué está pasando.

Me la voy a jugar: China se viene con nosotros.

https://ussanews.com/2022/09/19/chinese-military-convoy-enters-ukraine-from-russia/

Espero que sea un hoax 

[Saturio]

test chart of the Global Container Index. See it free here: https://fbx.freightos.com/.
PS: See all 12 Freightos Baltic Index routes live at fbx.freightos.com

[sudden and sharp]

No se vayan todavía... que aun hay más.




Josep Borrell: “Es el momento de resistir, no podemos arrugarnos ahora”
https://www.lavanguardia.com/internacional/20220916/8527991/josep-borrell-momento-resistir-no-podemos-arrugarnos-ahora.html
Los aplausos a la valentía del pueblo ucraniano casi resonaban en la Eurocámara cuando Josep Borrell se sentó con La Vanguardia para charlar de los dos grandes temas, con permiso de la monarquía británica, de la actualidad europea: Ucrania y la energía. La guerra “ha entrado en una nueva fase”, dice el alto representante para Asuntos Exteriores de la Unión Europea, preocupado porque la ciudadanía entienda lo que está en juego.



Rendirse no ha estado NUNCA sobre la mesa... Si sale a colación ahora la palabra "arrugarse" es porque...

... TRADUCIENDO ...

Ya tenemos el 120% de gas para el invierno... y el 250% de la armas sobre el terreno...

... y al Putin le va a caer la del PULPO.







Judas Priest - Screaming for Vengeance (Official Audio)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TN7Lv0PR4Q8

Eso explica la visita de BoJo a Ucrania cuando tenían la tregua encima de la mesa. Que Ucrania se rindiera (o incluso que aceptara las condiciones rusas para quedarse igual) nunca fue una opción (para Europa, que no pone ni un sólo muerto en la mesa).

Un mundo nuevo con dos bloques (occidental por un lado, BRICS + satélites por otro). Un nuevo telón de acero y dos sistemas.

Lo jodido es que esta vez es el otro bloque el que tiene la energía barata, las materias primas y la producción industrial, y el nuestro el de la burocracia sin sentido y los derechos sociales recortándose.

Al final los resilientísimos europeos seremos los únicos que traguemos con el monstruoso impuesto al CO2, hasta que estemos todos en la miseria o instalando guillotinas en Bruselas (y Madrid, y París, y Roma). Si esto no es plan para dinamitar la UE desde dentro que baje el Señor y lo vea porque a mí cada vez me cuesta más entender qué está pasando.

Me la voy a jugar: China se viene con nosotros.

https://ussanews.com/2022/09/19/chinese-military-convoy-enters-ukraine-from-russia/

Espero que sea un hoax 

Aquí,

https://www.factcheck.org/2017/07/websites-post-fake-satirical-stories/

... dicen:

USSA News

Ussanews.com calls itself “the Tea Party’s front page” and says on its “About” page:

“This site is here directly because of the direction this country, the USA, is headed. Too much government!”

The site is registered through Tucows, a company that hides the identity and location of the owner of the website.

[ Pero vete a saber... ]

[Cadavre Exquis]

China's Factories Accelerate Robotics Push as Workforce Shrinks
Posted by msmash on Monday September 19, 2022 @12:44PM from the closer-look dept.

China installed almost as many robots in its factories last year as the rest of the world, accelerating a rush to automate and consolidate its manufacturing dominance even as its working-age population shrinks. WSJ:

Shipments of industrial robots to China in 2021 rose 45% compared with the previous year to more than 243,000, according to new data viewed by The Wall Street Journal from the International Federation of Robotics, a robotics industry trade group. China accounted for just under half of all installations of heavy-duty industrial robots last year, reinforcing the nation's status as the No. 1 market for robot manufacturers worldwide. The IFR data shows China installed nearly twice as many new robots as did factories throughout the Americas and Europe.

Part of the explanation for China's rapid automation is that it is simply catching up with richer peers. The world's second-largest economy lags behind the U.S. and manufacturing powerhouses such as Japan, Germany and South Korea in the prevalence of robots on production lines. The rapid automation also reflects a growing recognition in China that its factories need to adapt as the country's supply of cheap labor dwindles and wages rise. The United Nations expects India to surpass China as the world's most-populous country as soon as next year. The population of those in China age 20 to 64 -- the bulk of the workforce -- might have already peaked, U.N. projections show, and is expected to fall steeply after 2030, as China's population ages and birthrates stay low.

Saludos.

[asustadísimos]

EL BUCLE ALQUILO-VENDO.—

Nuestro 'iter' estructural, 'niquelao':
2022-2025: RECONSENSO (DESINMOBILIARIZACIÓN)

Ahora, la consigna de los ganchos & gafes es reducir lo que llaman 'inventario' y que el 'himbersor' se enroque en el 'HODL' (aguantar 'perdiendo', sí, perdiendo porque ya nadie se cree los precios de catálogo que se dan); y que el encastillamiento dure el tiempo suficiente que necesitan los rocamboles para deshacerse a la desesperada de sus maulas, antes de que el 'himbersor' se dé cuenta de que estamos ante el cambio de modelo impulsado desde el poder financiero (el 'reset' proclamado como objetivo de la política monetaria por la Fed —Powell en persona— el pasado 15 de junio).

Nos boicoteamos a nosotros mismos por culpa del dictadorzuelo de pacotilla que todos llevamos dentro a modo de Hynkel & Benzino Napaloni —el Hitler & Mussolini de Chaplin—. Al compañero que usa estos 'nicknames' le debemos la formalización del concepto de «BUCLE ALQUILO-VENDO». El Hynkel & Benzino Napaloni egocentrista que tiraniza dentro de sí a todo 'himbersor' («'himbierto' porque el dinero no renta nada, incluso se desvaloriza») le hace vivir en un bucle que tiene dos estados:
— «si no lo alquilo, lo vendo»
— «si no lo vendo, lo alquilo»
El 'HODL' es lo que hay entretejido entre cada lo alquilo y lo vendo.

El Bucle AV se completa con el Efecto NPN (Nunca Pasa Nada), que es como el cuento 'Que viene el lobo' ('Pedro y el lobo', atribuido a Esopo), pero al revés —no es mentira que viene el lobo, por lo que quien se guasea no es quien avisa—, lo que tiene dos consecuencias letales:
— en microeconomía, nadie ve nada hasta que es demasiado tarde
— en macroeconomía, no se sabe qué es una actividad productiva ordinaria, al estar las rentas del Trabajo & Empresa parasitadas por la 'private taxation' inmobiliaria

Fíjense cómo en todo debate está saliendo que viene una recesión, pero que, por culpa de la 'máquina de imprimir', el dinero ha perdido valor, por lo que su antagonista —el ladrillo— lo mantiene o incluso lo ganaría a poco que escasee (Pensamiento Mágico O-D).

Bueno, pues la idea es que el Pacto de Rentas pertenece al núcleo duro del Reconsenso y que el reaccionarismo 'HODL' y el Bucle AV no son más que parte del proceso de desinmobiliarización en el que ya estamos metidos de hoz y coz.

Nosotros, a lo nuestro.

De nosotros no se guasea nadie.

[sudden and sharp]

Yo pondría comillas a "perdiendo"... si el precio es "fake". (Es más alto, no como en el caso de la vivienda.)







Judas Priest - The Hellion / Electric Eye (Live from Battle Cry)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BEfOGyvyfFY

Judas Priest - Living After Midnight (from Epitaph)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEgaK537PZM

[Derby]

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/nahb-ceo-grim-assessment-housing-market-housing-recession

NAHB CEO gives grim assessment of housing market: 'We've given birth to a housing recession'

Jerry Howard warns housing is weakening in virtually every market, but says 'good policy' is the 'cure'

National Association of Home Builders CEO Jerry Howard warned the housing market will continue to decline and is likely to "stay at bottom" until the midterm elections, telling "Varney & Co." Monday that policymakers could cure the current housing recession.

JERRY HOWARD: It’s a real bad time. Nine straight months down, we’ve given birth to a housing recession. This recession could be cured by policymakers, so I expect we’ll stay at the bottom, and maybe go a little lower, right up until we see the outcome of the midterm elections - because policy is what can get us out of this.

I think you’re seeing a weakening in virtually every market but those that were stronger are weakening less. I guess the most important thing that investors and people need to remember is that Americans still want to own their homes and that, as soon as the conditions turn a little more favorable, housing will pick up. That will pick up the whole economy.

Hay que ver el aspecto del CEO del NAHB...qué pinta tiene! 

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-19/home-flipper-opendoor-hit-with-losses-in-echo-of-zillow-collapse

Home-Flipper Opendoor Hit With Losses in Echo of Zillow Collapse

Company lost money on 42% of its August resales after it failed to anticipate slide in housing demand.

The US housing market’s sharp downturn has been bad for builders, flippers and almost anyone who had plans to sell a home when rising mortgage rates shut down the pandemic buying frenzy.

The slump has been especially harsh for Opendoor Technologies Inc., pioneer of a data-driven spin on home-flipping known as iBuying.

The company, which sells thousands of homes in a typical month, lost money on 42% of its transactions in August, according to research from YipitData. Opendoor’s performance — as measured by the prices at which it bought and sold properties — was even worse in key markets such as Los Angeles, where the company lost money on 55% of sales, and Phoenix, where the share was 76%.

The losses, which don’t include fees charged to customers or expenses incurred in renovating and marketing homes, have been looming since the housing market turned suddenly in recent months. Opendoor warned investors that it expected to lose as much as $175 million in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization in the third quarter.

“We provided third quarter guidance in our last earnings to reflect lower-than-normal transaction volume and home-price appreciation, as well as longer than normal hold times for our inventory associated with the most rapid change in residential real estate fundamentals in 40 years,” an Opendoor representative said in a statement. “We have moved quickly and decisively to prioritize inventory health and risk management.”

The company’s rocky summer is reminiscent of the pricing problems that doomed Zillow Group Inc.’s iBuying business last year, according to a research note from Mike DelPrete, a scholar-in-residence at the University of Colorado Boulder. That doesn’t mean Opendoor is going to shut down the business, but it demonstrates the depth of the losses — and September is likely to be even worse than August, DelPrete’s analysis shows.

“Opendoor’s metrics are in the danger zone,” DelPrete said in an interview. “They are very close to where Zillow was in its worst moments.”

The iBuying model relies on acquiring homes, making light repairs and reselling the properties — often within a few months of the initial purchase. When home prices were skyrocketing earlier in the year, Opendoor banked easy profits. Then dwindling affordability and mortgage rates soaring toward 6% this spring finally pushed would-be buyers to the sidelines.

By June, median home prices had begun to decline in some areas, especially the Sun Belt markets that had been frothiest in the pandemic boom days. The shift caught Opendoor by surprise, leaving it to offload thousands of properties it had agreed to purchase when prices were rising.

Instead of canceling contracts, Opendoor decided to make good on the offers, explaining the decision as an investment in the company’s brand, according to a letter to investors in August.

The shares slid 4.7% to $3.87 at 3:28 p.m. New York time Monday. They were down 72% this year through the close on Sept. 16.

Eventually, Opendoor will finish selling through the inventory it acquired before the market shifted, giving it a chance to stem its losses and start selling homes profitably again. The worst might already be over, with last week representing the nadir of the selloff, according to an analysis by Tyler Okland, chief executive officer of Datadoor.io.

In the meantime, Opendoor’s struggles have been a boon for people like Troy Ready, who completed an online form to solicit a bid from the company for his Yorba Linda, California, home. He almost fell out of his chair when Opendoor offered $1.4 million, and closed on the deal at the end of March.

Opendoor put the house back on the market two weeks later, asking just under $1.6 million, then cut the asking price every two weeks before selling the property for $1.3 million in August.

“We managed to sell at the particular top of the market,” said Ready. “It felt like a big win.”

[sudden and sharp]

Fidelity is showing 78.28% Short Percentage











 



[ 1.12% ]

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-19/here-s-how-much-a-new-monthly-mortgage-payment-has-surged-in-10-us-metros

Here’s How Much a New Monthly Mortgage Payment Has Surged in 10 US Metros

When rates go up but prices don’t go down, this is what happens.

Michael McDonough, chief economist for financial products at Bloomberg, has helped publish charts that show how much a typical new homebuyer, who gets a 30-year fixed mortgage, with a 20% downpayment can expect to make in monthly payments. The charts were made using Bloomberg [ECAN<GO>] function.

Of course, a key question now whether today's prices can be sustained given the affordability shock shown below.

Here’s what it looks like in 10 different metro areas.

Austin, Texas



Boise, Idaho



Akron, Ohio



Miami, Florida



New York/NJ/Long Island



Los Angeles, California



Washington, D.C./Arlington/Alexandria



Silicon Valley, California



Tucson, Arizona



El Paso, Texas

[puede ser]

Los cuarteles generales comienzan a poner el foco en el tema tabú:

En El Confidencial abren página (tras las fotos del funeral de la reina -paja-) con "De Guindos observa ya un enfriamiento inmobiliario por el frenazo económico"

En El Economista van más lejos, portada para:

Ni Putin, ni Powell: el culpable de la inflación de EEUU es la vivienda

La vivienda es la culpable de la inflación en EEUU y los precios del alquiler no pronostican nada bueno
El precio del alquiler supone casi un tercio del IPC, según Idealista
Las alzas de las rentas conducirán a incrementos salariales
La inflación de los alquileres seguirá siendo elevada hasta 2024

La Reserva Federal (Fed) está ultimando su próxima decisión de tipos, que se confirmará el miércoles, con un alza más desde la vuelta al endurecimiento monetario en Estados Unidos que arrancó ya hace medio año. De cara a la cita, el organismo tendrá en el punto de mira la principal causa de la inflación: la vivienda (y no la energía).

Aunque en los últimos meses el foco se ha puesto en los precios de la energía y de los alimentos, los alquileres tienen un gran peso en el nivel de precios y en el gasto de los hogares. De hecho, esta referencia es menos volátil y permite evaluar qué contribuye al Índice de Precios al Consumo (IPC) poniendo el foco en un componente más persistente. Según Idealista, los alquileres suponen casi un tercio del IPC y en torno al 40% de la inflación subyacente. El portal inmobiliario destaca su importancia para calcular la evolución de los precios y su capacidad para reflejar las presiones inflacionistas.

Desde la gestora francesa La Financière de L'Echiquier (LFDE) también apuntan a la vivienda como la mayor responsable del alza de los precios y, de nuevo, dejan en un segundo plano la energía. "El problema no es tanto el nivel general de la inflación, sino sobre todo su causa principal, más profunda que el aumento de los precios de la energía y los alimentos: la vivienda", señala Olivier de Berranger, director de inversión y de gestión de activos de la firma.


El gestor explica que el último dato de IPC, el de agosto, refleja que el problema no está en la cifra final. El mes pasado, la inflación se situó en el 8,3% interanual, moderándose desde julio, pero situándose dos décimas por encima de expectativas. Tras conocerse el dato, se desencadenaban fuertes ventas en los mercados, ya que lo que importaba era el trasfondo. Es decir, cuál es la razón principal para que los precios sigan subiendo por encima de lo previsto, cuánto puede durar la presión inflacionista y, por tanto, cuál va a ser el ritmo de endurecimiento monetario.

"Algo que podía parecer anodino -en vista de que la diferencia era pequeña entre las expectativas y la realidad- desencadenó un terremoto en los mercados", apunta de Berranger. La lectura que hacían entonces los inversores era que los alquileres van a seguir subiendo, a la par que se encarecen los préstamos, lo que, a su vez, desencadenará nuevos incrementos salariales. Por eso, el director de inversión de la gestora espera una inflación duradera y "unos bancos centrales belicosos, incluso si el crecimiento se resiente".

Las rentas son relevantes para decidir los ajustes y los recortes de estímulos y son esenciales en la subyacente, ya que aquí se extraen los precios más volátiles de los alimentos y de los precios. Según Idealista, la inflación de los alquileres ha avanzado casi un 6% interanual hasta julio y se espera que se eleve por encima del 7% a principios del año que viene, 2023.

Además, el avance de los precios de los alquileres no se refleja inmediatamente en el IPC ya que los cambios en vivienda no son inmediatos y los inquilinos no se mudan cada año. "Los expertos descartan caídas de precios a corto plazo, y que llevará un tiempo volver a los datos que se encontraban en el período prepandemia", indica Idealista.

Inflación elevada durante mucho tiempo
También coincide la gestora francesa LFDE en que el alza de los precios se va a prolongar. Su análisis se basa en la crisis de la década de los 70, que recuerda a la situación actual pese a las diferencias entre ambas. Entonces, un primer pico de inflación se tocó en 1974, en el 12% en Estados Unidos. Dos años después, el IPC se moderaba, pero volvía a escalar en 1980, hasta el 15%. Algo indica que "la inflación puede mantenerse elevada durante mucho tiempo".

Idealista avanza que la inflación de los alquileres se situará en su máximo a principios de 2023 y que se mantendrá elevada también a finales de 2024. En concreto, en el entorno del 4% en comparación con los niveles previos al estallido del conoravirus. Y, hasta normalizarse la situación, tendrán que pasar unos años. En ese contexto, ya nadie espera que las subidas de tipos sean de 50 puntos básicos, sino que se requerirán alzas de 75 o 100 puntos básicos para poder contrarrestar la inflación.