Tema: PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Otoño 2022

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/expansion-nacional/20221206/page/41/textview

¿Estamos ante un cambio de ciclo inmobiliario

Turismo, ¿al filo del precipicio?

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/expansion-nacional/20221206/page/40/textview

Alerta: llega el nuevo impuesto sobre envases de plástico

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/financial-times/2022/11/28/638492c7e5fdeaf62d8b45f3.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/cincodias/2022/12/05/economia/1670235840_697515.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/cincodias/2022/12/05/economia/1670265576_775361.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1598708522237034496

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

Remote Work Is Gutting Downtowns, Will Cost Cities $453 Billion
Posted by BeauHD on Tuesday December 06, 2022 @07:02PM from the office-apocalypse dept.

An anonymous reader quotes a report from Insider:

Deserted downtowns have been haunting US cities since the beginning of the pandemic. Before the pandemic, 95% of offices were occupied. Today that number is closer to 47%. Employees' not returning to downtown offices has had a domino effect: Less foot traffic, less public-transit use, and more shuttered businesses have caused many downtowns to feel more like ghost towns. Even 2 1/2 years later, most city downtowns aren't back to where they were prepandemic. [...] The increased cancellations of office leases have cratered the office real-estate market. A study led by Arpit Gupta, a professor of finance at New York University's Stern School of Business, characterized the value wipeout as an "apocalypse." It estimated that $453 billion in real-estate value would be lost across US cities, with a 17-percentage-point decline in lease revenue from January 2020 to May 2022. The shock to real-estate valuations has been sharp: One building in San Francisco's Mission District that sold for $397 million in 2019 is on the market for about $155 million, a 60% decline.

Other key indicators that economists use to measure the economic vitality of downtowns include office vacancy rates, public-transportation ridership, and local business spending. Across the country, public-transportation ridership remains stuck at about 70% of prepandemic levels. If only 56% of employees of financial firms in New York are in the office on a given day, the health of a city's urban core is negatively affected. The second-order effects of remote work and a real-estate apocalypse are still playing out, but it isn't looking good. Declines in real-estate valuations lead to lower property taxes, which affects the revenue collected to foot the bill of city budgets. Declines in foot traffic have deteriorated business corridors; a recent survey by the National League of Cities suggested cities expect at least a 2.5% decline in sales-tax receipts and a 4% decline in revenue for fiscal 2022.

"The solution to the office-housing conundrum seems obvious: Turn commercial spaces like offices into housing. Empty offices can become apartments to ease housing pressure while also bringing more people back to downtown areas," reports Insider. "But after two years, few buildings have been converted." According to the report, it's being hampered by hard-to-justify construction costs and local housing rules.

"Overall, combating the death of downtowns requires a reworking of how we think about cities and the value they provide," the report says. "The urban author Jane Jacobs proclaimed in her famous 1958 article for Fortune magazine, 'Downtown Is for People,' that "'there is no logic that can be superimposed on the city; people make it, and it is to them, not buildings, that we must fit our plans.'"

"The economic health of cities is intrinsically linked to how space is used or unused, and right now downtowns are undergoing a massive shift. Despite the sluggish movement, it's in cities' best interest to figure out how to quickly convert office-centric downtowns into something more suitable for everyone."

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

France Bans Short Haul Domestic Flights in Favour of Train Travel
Posted by msmash on Tuesday December 06, 2022 @12:21PM from the how-about-that dept.

France has been given the green light to ban short haul domestic flights. The European Commission has approved the move which will abolish flights between cities that are linked by a train journey of less than 2.5 hours. From a report:

The decision was announced on Friday. The changes are part of the country's 2021 Climate Law and were first proposed by France's Citizens' Convention on Climate -- a citizens' assembly tasked with finding ways to reduce the country's carbon emissions. France is also cracking down on the use of private jets for short journeys in a bid to make transport greener and fairer for the population. Transport minister Clement Beaune said the country could no longer tolerate the super rich using private planes while the public are making cutbacks to deal with the energy crisis and climate change.

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1600307514389561345

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1600314710515073024

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://twitter.com/philippilk/status/1599708422634553344

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://twitter.com/TrabajarEuropa/status/1600087497736065026

Saludos.

[Benzino Napaloni]

Remote Work Is Gutting Downtowns, Will Cost Cities $453 Billion
Posted by BeauHD on Tuesday December 06, 2022 @07:02PM from the office-apocalypse dept.

An anonymous reader quotes a report from Insider:

Deserted downtowns have been haunting US cities since the beginning of the pandemic. Before the pandemic, 95% of offices were occupied. Today that number is closer to 47%. Employees' not returning to downtown offices has had a domino effect: Less foot traffic, less public-transit use, and more shuttered businesses have caused many downtowns to feel more like ghost towns. Even 2 1/2 years later, most city downtowns aren't back to where they were prepandemic. [...] The increased cancellations of office leases have cratered the office real-estate market. A study led by Arpit Gupta, a professor of finance at New York University's Stern School of Business, characterized the value wipeout as an "apocalypse." It estimated that $453 billion in real-estate value would be lost across US cities, with a 17-percentage-point decline in lease revenue from January 2020 to May 2022. The shock to real-estate valuations has been sharp: One building in San Francisco's Mission District that sold for $397 million in 2019 is on the market for about $155 million, a 60% decline.

Other key indicators that economists use to measure the economic vitality of downtowns include office vacancy rates, public-transportation ridership, and local business spending. Across the country, public-transportation ridership remains stuck at about 70% of prepandemic levels. If only 56% of employees of financial firms in New York are in the office on a given day, the health of a city's urban core is negatively affected. The second-order effects of remote work and a real-estate apocalypse are still playing out, but it isn't looking good. Declines in real-estate valuations lead to lower property taxes, which affects the revenue collected to foot the bill of city budgets. Declines in foot traffic have deteriorated business corridors; a recent survey by the National League of Cities suggested cities expect at least a 2.5% decline in sales-tax receipts and a 4% decline in revenue for fiscal 2022.

"The solution to the office-housing conundrum seems obvious: Turn commercial spaces like offices into housing. Empty offices can become apartments to ease housing pressure while also bringing more people back to downtown areas," reports Insider. "But after two years, few buildings have been converted." According to the report, it's being hampered by hard-to-justify construction costs and local housing rules.

"Overall, combating the death of downtowns requires a reworking of how we think about cities and the value they provide," the report says. "The urban author Jane Jacobs proclaimed in her famous 1958 article for Fortune magazine, 'Downtown Is for People,' that "'there is no logic that can be superimposed on the city; people make it, and it is to them, not buildings, that we must fit our plans.'"

"The economic health of cities is intrinsically linked to how space is used or unused, and right now downtowns are undergoing a massive shift. Despite the sluggish movement, it's in cities' best interest to figure out how to quickly convert office-centric downtowns into something more suitable for everyone."

Saludos.

Interesante, porque le pone números y constata una realidad que el año de la pandemia sólo se intuía. Ahora ya es real.

Se cometió un error al dar por hecho que la migración del campo a la ciudad no tenía vuelta de hoja. La historia no es lineal, es cíclica. Ciertamente la ciudad permitió una economía de escala y nuevas posibilidades. Pero la concentración de población en las ciudades no está libre de la Ley de Rendimientos Decrecientes. Los que hayan visto Office Space (Trabajo Basura en España) recordarán la escena del atasco mañanero en los coches.

Cuando la población es libre, o lo suficientemente libre, hace lo que le resulta más conveniente. Japón y China tuvieron una migración a la ciudad relativamente tardía, pero en cuanto que los campesinos dejaron de estar atados a las tierras, se marcharon.

Ahora está sucediendo exactamente lo mismo. Vivir todos los días en el permanente atasco, en un estrés constante, en una sangría de gastos e impuestos, y con servicios que van mermando en calidad... El personal llevaba mucho tiempo harto de esto. El shock ha venido por un error muy habitual de la dirección, que va desde el jefecillo de una pyme hasta a un gobernante. "No serán capaces". Y luego viene la sorpresa en forma de dimisión, o en este caso de mudanza. Lo han hecho a la que han podido. Y tampoco es que se hayan ido a pueblos perdidos en mitad de la nada, con ciudades de medio tamaño ya era suficiente.


Claro que va a ser costoso el cambio, es un cambio traumático. Aunque una parte son vasos comunicantes -el trabajador que se va seguirá pagando y consumiendo en otra parte-, hay infraestructuras mastodónticas que se tendrán que redimensionar. El alcalde de San Francisco ya hace tiempo que reconoció en público que la fuga de teletrabajadores le ha roto las cuentas. Pero es un cambio inevitable. Además los teletrabajadores inevitablemente arrastrarán negocios y servicios presenciales.


Yo lo tendría claro: siendo el cambio inevitable hay que prepararse para él, y a lo sumo dosificarlo. Tratar de pararlo es suicida. Pero mucho me temo que es lo que pasará en España. Presencialismo a cascoporro, y dentro de unos años con problemas. A estas alturas las empresas de fuera ya están robando los trabajadores, pero dentro de unos años será mucho peor. Empresas con menores costes operativos, y por lo tanto más competitivas. Ahí más de un palillero patrio lo pasará mal.

[JENOFONTE10]

ACELERANDO LA DEPRECIACIÓN (VERY SCARED?)

El índice Halifax de vivienda en Reino Unido se desploma a niveles de 2008 [3']:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VxyOx5ogkBk

Fuente:

UK housing market continues to slow as average price drops again

• Average house price fell by -2.3% in November (vs. -0.4% in October)
• Annual rate of growth dropped to +4.7% (from +8.2%)
• Typical UK property now costs £285,579 (down from £292,406 last month)
• Rate of annual growth slowed in all but one region (the North East) during November
• Similar slowing trend in Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales
[...]
https://www.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/november-2022-house-price-index.pdf

Saludos.

[asustadísimos]

ANSIEDAD LADRILLOGÉNICA.—

En solo una semana, a la iliquidez de Blackstone, se le ha unido la de Starwood y la quiebra de Reverse Mortage. Si los grandes sector están así, ¿cómo tienen sus pantalones los aficionados?

El catacrack y la nueva tendencia principal bajista inmobiliariaha sido oficializada académicamente —inflexión de la transición estructural— por el 'S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller'.

La primera frase del 'Financial Stability Report', del 'Board Of Governors Of The Federal Reserve System', de noviembre es:
— «1 Asset Valuations. A deteriorating economic outlook and higher interest rates lowered corporate valuations, while real estate valuations remained elevated... With valuations at high levels, house prices could be particularly sensitive to shocks.»

La corrección valorativa de la vivienda ya no es el objetivo-sombra de la Fed. Es el objetivo-al-sol. Powell solo hace una cosa que se llama PERSEVERAR (concepto fundamental para adelgazar):
— 15-jun  . . . 'reset'
— 21-sep  . . . 'it's a good thing'
— 2-nov   . . . 'get back' & 'well out'
— 30-nov . . . 'go through the other side'

'Game over'.