Tema: PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Otoño 2022

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-10-26/liz-truss-s-ouster-wasn-t-the-markets-doing

Markets Didn’t Oust Truss. The Bank of England Did.

The way the UK government fell should worry all who support democracy.

The precipitous fall of former UK Prime Minister Liz Truss’s government has been widely credited to the objective discipline of financial markets. Her misguided policies, the logic goes, elicited such a negative reaction that she had no choice but to backtrack and resign.

I see a very different story. Markets didn’t oust Truss, the Bank of England did — through poor financial regulation and highly subjective crisis management.

Truss won the leadership of the Conservative Party, which the UK electorate had voted into power, by promising a range of deep tax cuts and government spending increases. Whatever one might think of her policies, they were her mandate. I agree with the many observers who expected them to lead to higher inflation, higher interest rates and quite possibly higher unemployment. But such adverse outcomes take months and years to play out. Her government fell in a matter of weeks. How could this happen?

The common wisdom is that financial markets “punished” Truss’s government for its fiscal profligacy. But the chastisement was far from universal. Over the three days starting Sept. 23, when the Truss government announced its mini-budget, the pound fell by 2.2% relative to the euro, and the FTSE 100 stock index declined by 2.2% — notable movements, but hardly enough to bring a government to its knees.

The big change came in the price of 30-year UK government bonds, also known as gilts, which experienced a shocking 23% drop. Most of this decline had nothing to do with rational investors revising their beliefs about the UK’s long-run prospects. Rather, it stemmed from financial regulators’ failure to limit leverage in UK pension funds. These funds had bought long-term gilts with borrowed money and entered derivative contracts to the same effect — positions that generated huge collateral demands when prices fell and yields rose. To raise the necessary cash, they had to sell more gilts, creating a doom loop in which declining prices and forced selling compounded one another.

The Bank of England, as the entity responsible for overseeing the financial system, bears at least part of the blame for this catastrophe. As a result of its regulatory failure, it was forced into an emergency intervention, buying gilts to put a floor on prices. But it refused to extend its support beyond Oct. 14 — even though its purchases of long-term government bonds were fully indemnified by the Treasury. It’s hard to see how that decision aligned with the central bank’s financial-stability mandate, and easy to see how it contributed to the government’s demise.

The way the Truss government collapsed should concern all who support democracy. The prime minister was seeking to fulfill her campaign promises. She was thwarted not by markets, but by a hole in financial regulation — a hole that the Bank of England proved strangely unwilling to plug.

PS Yo me emociono cuando Asustadísimos habla anticipatoriamente de la parresía, de verdad que me emociono.

[sudden and sharp]

[... Y España con Aznar también. No insistiré mucho sobre lo que pienso de 2004, que ya algunos lo sabéis. Y reconozco que no tengo cómo probar [...]

Ni tú... ni nadie.

Todo eso de los anglos, eurasia..., que sé yo, los reptilianos... es una puta falacia. Una mentira para GILIPUERTAS. [ No me voy a cortar... puede que ésta sea la ÚLTIMA vez que lo explico.] A ver: a) El dinero ni se crea ni se destruye, solo cambia de bolsillo. Como no hablamos de física teorica, esto es esencialmente verdad.

Hablamos de dinero, pp.cc. se ha hartado de explicar que eso es M3 como mucho. [La wikipedia es vuestra amiga.]

Y todo lo demás... son mistificaciones para robaros lo vuestro. (No tengo tiempo, ni ganas, de explicitarlo más.)








Si os preguntáis dónde está visi, o el resto de foreros antiguos... ya os lo digo yo. Están de lurkers hartos de repetir siempre lo mismo... y de explicar lo esencial a todo aquel vago que no tiene la mínima intención de estudiar nada, ni de hacerse la pregunta más elemental... pero que no dudará en preguntar ¿Qué hay de lo mio?, cada dos por tres.




Está todo en el hilo. Yo recomiendo el primer trozo de la primera parte, en burbuja. (Ese trozo me lo he leído de pe a pa, DOS veces; así que reclamaciones, al amestro armero.)


Aquí:

https://www.burbuja.info/inmobiliaria/threads/mas-ir.21210/#



... y b) Si hablamos de interés, ya simple, ya compuesto, hablamos de tiempo, y la preferencia del dinero ahora... o al cumplirse éste o aquel plazo.

• https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inter%C3%A9s_simple
• https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inter%C3%A9s_compuesto

[ C'est tout. ]

[Benzino Napaloni]

Gracias por el enlace. Hace tiempo que no entro en B.info porque me cansé de lidiar con hilos basura. Ya por la época del terraplanismo pensé que había tenido suficiente.

Y es una pena porque entre toneladas de porquería quedan los hilos primigenios que ya sólo recuerda quien tuvo la oportunidad de leerlos.

Me quedo con este cacho:

El maldito ciclo electoral y la sorpresa de Atocha cambiaron radicalmente los planes aterrizajesuavistas en España; durante la etapa final del aznarismo, todos (incluso ellos) pensábamos que la burbuja-pirámide-feria le iba a explotar a Rajoy (ex-Ministro para las regiones y municipios) y que Rato, como "hombre del dinero", había escurrido hábilmente el hombro obteniendo una bicoca, ser Presidente del FMI, con rango de Jefe de Estado; los bambis ZPístas estaban faltos, no de uno, sino de varios hervores, por lo que su misión sería sólo estar todo el día, como en efecto estaban, saliendo en los medios hablando de la burbuja, cargando las pilas para tomar el relevo a un Rajoy lleno de tomates, con el grano purulento inmobiliario ya reventado; si no hubiera habido cambio político en marzo de 2004, no nos habríamos desincronizado del ciclo inmobiliario de EEUU y el crash hubiera acabado siendo menos abrupto.

La burbuja siguió a toda mecha hasta dos años y medio después del cambio de gobierno, eso sí lo recuerdo bien, fue cuando empecé a tomar conciencia de estos temas. El timing también. Octubre de 2006 cuando empezaron a cerrar las primeras agencias por la caída de las operaciones, verano de 2007 cuando El Parte ya confesó abiertamente las primeras bajadas de precios, y por supuesto el octubre negro de 2008 con un millón de parados más.

Pero siendo francos, en 2004 la burbuja ya estaba desatada y dudo muy mucho que hubiese planes "aterrizajesuavistas" viables. Es aquello de que nadie tiene agallas de dejar de servir vino cuando el personal ya está "alegre" por no quedar como un aguafiestas. Para entonces el crash español ya era inevitable.


Pensando más en tiempos modernos, viendo lo que están haciendo los bancos parece que sí se acabó la escapatoria.

[Derby]

https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-end-of-the-system-of-the-world

The end of the system of the world

A critical point has been reached; decoupling is for real this time.

(...) The new world system

It will take a while for the new world-economic system to be born (and as Gramsci says, this will be a “time of monsters”). A lot will be contingent on events, such as whether there is another world war. But already I think we can make some educated guesses and ask some key questions.

One reasonable prediction is that the era of global value chains will not come to an end. Offshoring and supply chaining are just how companies know how to produce stuff now, meaning that — barring a very catastrophic war — we will not go back to an era of largely self-contained national manufacturing economies. Instead, supply chains will shift into blocs. China is obviously one bloc; Xi and his followers want China to make and own everything valuable in-house and rely on other countries only for raw materials and other low-value goods. In the absence of the U.S.-led liberal world order to enforce free trade, securing those resources will require geopolitical and even military action — a return, in some form or another, to the pre-WW2 era that will doubtless draw at least scattered protests of neo-imperialism. There will be struggles over the resources of some neutral countries, including poor countries, and this could turn into some ugly Cold-War style proxy struggles.

The second bloc is less certain. I expect the Biden administration and/or its successor to get tripped up for a while by the mirage of a self-sufficient U.S., and to implement “Buy American” policies that hurt our allies and trading partners and slow the formation of a bloc that can match China. But if Americans can finally pull their heads out of their rear ends and recognize that their country doesn’t dominate the world the way it used to, there’s a chance to create a non-China economic bloc that preserves lots of the efficiencies of the old Chimerica system while also serving U.S. national security needs.

That bloc would not only include America’s formal allies or the developed democracies; instead it would include lots of developing countries that would like to hedge against Chinese power and secure access to rich-world markets. Two prime examples are India and Vietnam. I noted a recent article in The Economist about how Apple — the poster child for American investment in China — is starting to shift production to those countries:

Apple banked on China-based factories, which now churn out more than 90% of its products, and wooed Chinese consumers, who in some years contributed up to a quarter of Apple’s revenue. Yet economic and geopolitical shifts are forcing the company to begin a hurried decoupling…

The two countries are the main beneficiaries of Apple’s strategic shift. In 2017 Apple listed 18 large suppliers in India and Vietnam; last year it had 37. In September…Apple started making its new iPhone 14 in India, where it had previously made only older models. The previous month it was reported that Apple would soon start making its MacBook laptops in Vietnam…Almost half its AirPod earphones are made in Vietnam and by 2025 two-thirds will be, forecasts JPMorgan Chase. The bank reckons that, whereas today less than 5% of Apple’s products are made outside China, by 2025 the figure will be 25%…

As Apple’s production system is shifting, its suppliers are diversifying away from China, too…

At its high point in 2015, China accounted for 25% of Apple’s annual revenues, more than all of Europe. Since then its share has steadily shrunk, to 19% so far.

I would also expect Indonesia, Bangladesh, the Philippines, Mexico, and Turkey to be in this bloc. There will also be some swing states like Malaysia that could go either way and might try to play both sides.

Between multinational shifts out of China and China’s indigenization of innovation and onshoring of supply chains, the economic relationship between China and developed democracies will stop being a symbiotic one and start to be a competitive one. Instead of being part of a value chain, Chinese and DD companies will go head to head in developing-country markets in Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa. Industrial policy in the DD countries will likely increase in order to maintain key technological edges that are relevant for military advantage.

Meanwhile, the geostrategic competition between the DD countries and the China/Russia axis is obviously going to rely on a lot of export controls. So I expect to see the return of the Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export Controls (CoCom) or some equivalent, and its extension to various new technologies.

Finally, the disengagement from China is not going to be total or abrupt, no matter how much impetus there is in that direction. The DD countries are going to need to decide which products they can afford to keep sourcing from China and which they can’t. This is going to take quite a lot of planning, and it would be much better for the DD countries if they coordinated instead of trying to go it alone.

In fact, whether the non-China bloc coordinates on policy is really the big question regarding the new world-economic order. Together, the U.S., Europe, and the rich democracies of East Asia comprise a manufacturing bloc that can match China’s output and a technological bloc that can exceed China’s capabilities. With the vast populations of India and other friendly developing countries on their side, they can create a trading and production bloc that will be almost as efficient as the old Chimerica system. But this will take coordination and trust on economic policy that has been notably absent so far. The U.S. will have to put aside its worries about competition with Japan, Korea, Germany or Taiwan — and vice versa.

In any case, this vision — a largely but not completely bifurcated global system of production and trade, with two technologically advanced high-output blocs competing head to head — seems like the most likely replacement for the Chimerica system that dominated the global economy over the past two decades. But it’s only a loose guess. What’s not really in doubt here is that we’ve reached a watershed moment in the history of the global economy; the system we came to know and rely on over the past two decades is crumbling, and our leaders and thinkers need to be scrambling to plan what comes next.

[Derby]

https://twitter.com/CGasparino/status/1585678718072233985

BREAKING: Economists at @BlackRock are telling financial advisers that they expect "pivot language" at the next @federalreserve meeting when they expect Powell to announce a 75 BP FF hike followed by two smaller ones and a pause to get us to around 4.75%. More 130pm @FoxBusiness

[Currobena]

https://twitter.com/CGasparino/status/1585678718072233985

BREAKING: Economists at @BlackRock are telling financial advisers that they expect "pivot language" at the next @federalreserve meeting when they expect Powell to announce a 75 BP FF hike followed by two smaller ones and a pause to get us to around 4.75%. More 130pm @FoxBusiness

Por qué no un uno y medio por ciento? Sería la mejor manera de bajar el precio del petróleo.

[Derby]

En lugar de eliminar la normativa europea (hasta 2.400 normativas) que sigue vigente en el ordenamiento jurídico británico, van a revisarla para conservarla.

https://www.ft.com/content/ec7142e5-6798-4a2b-901a-b3d583fea2b2

UK’s Rishi Sunak eases off on taking Brexit axe to EU laws

Plan for ‘delivery unit’ shelved in wake of warning EU legislation review would tie up hundreds of officials

(...) The CBI employers federation said changing EU regulation and introducing new British standards risked acting as “a further drag on growth”, if doing so added cost and complexity for business in having to adhere to new rules.

It added: “Given the scale of the task on assessing EU generated legislation, the focus should be on creating the right regulatory framework for the UK, not on hitting a self-created deadline.”

One senior MP from the pro-Brexit European Research Group said Sunak had assured the group that he was committed to the Retained EU Law Bill and also to legislation to overturn the Northern Ireland protocol, part of Johnson’s Brexit deal.

[Derby]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/27/business/the-biden-administration-is-weighing-further-controls-on-chinese-technology.html

The Biden administration is weighing further controls on Chinese technology.

The United States could extend the powerful export restrictions it has issued on China to areas like biotechnology and the algorithms that power artificial intelligence, an official said.

[Saturio]

Parece que Meta ha capitulado.
Hoy ha acabado a precios de principios de 2016

[Cadavre Exquis]

¡El ahorrador, en pánico! Mayor entrada mensual en fondos garantizados de la década
https://www.eleconomista.es/mercados-cotizaciones/noticias/12009354/10/22/El-ahorrador-en-panico-Mayor-entrada-mensual-en-fondos-garantizados-de-la-decada.html


Atención: La razón es que "la maquinaria bancaria ha decidido colocar estos fondos"



Ya sólo falta que la clientela decida "adquirirlos"... (Pobres jubiletas.)

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2022/10/27/6359802c468aeb17038b45a9.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/inmobiliario/mercado/2022/10/27/63598d10468aebed7b8b4583.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/cincodias/2022/10/26/opinion/1666807034_158849.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/cincodias/2022/10/26/companias/1666804467_043186.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/cincodias/2022/10/26/opinion/1666790303_807039.html

Saludos.