Tema: PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Otoño 2022

[senslev]

Esto es lo que ha pasado antes, capitulación con el VIX >50. El VIX en 20s bajos.

[R.G.C.I.M.]

GRacias Senslev.

Por mis entendederas, parece que aunque exija un cambio radical en tendencia, está a punto de caramelo, no?
Si se repiten los patrones no debería llevar demasiado tiempo. 
Meses?


SDs.

[senslev]

Esto lo puse hace unos días, pienso que hasta 2023 nada. Estoy hablando del latigazo con pánico.

El primero lo puse en su día si no recuerdo mal, el segundo es la actualización.

Market Forecast 2021: Robert Prechter / Upcoming Regime Change in Finance and Beyond

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mPo0pt6wkdQ

Cycles TV: Robert Prechter on Regime Change | October 22, 2022

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NK3IlX0qFtI

Entre 6 meses y 18 meses para que se haga suelo en las bolsas según lo que ha pasado en las otras ocasiones.

Si se sigue este patrón, que está por ver, y nos fijamos en la curva 10-2 años durante esos años, no creo que veamos un cambio de política permanente de los bbcc y quizá haya más cambios en las políticas monetarias debido a una inflación rara o no rara que de más problemas, algo que concuerda con el tema de recursos y geopolítica. Y añado, a ver qué hace el dólar.






También comentar que sigue habiendo opiniones sobre una visita a máximos e incluso más allá para luego caer a plomo, sigue habiendo meltupocalípticos. Igual si se llega a un acuerdo en el conflicto Ucrania, perdón USA, y Rusia y viendo como se mueve esto pues no hay que descartar nada, que el Dow está a un 7% 9% de máximos.

https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1591063675367989251?s=20&t=XdSWFGID2HGzljkuos_xnA

As Fed pivot hopes are back, FOMO investing is also back

Until the Dec. Fed meeting and Nov. CPI report, it will be purely speculation.

Either the Fed pivots and we see the biggest short squeeze in history.

Or, the Fed doesn’t pivot and we see the largest bull trap in history

La correlación de la señorita Pepis entre las políticas de los bbcc y los "mercaos".

-------------------------------

Breaking Market News ⚡️
@financialjuice
FTX: COMMENCES CHAPTER 11 BANKRUPTCY.

[Derby]

Breaking Market News ⚡️
@financialjuice
FTX: COMMENCES CHAPTER 11 BANKRUPTCY.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ftx-files-for-chapter-11-bankruptcy-11668176869

FTX Files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy

Sam Bankman-Fried resigns as crypto exchange CEO

Se nota que es viernes...

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-11/yellen-says-don-t-read-too-much-in-positive-october-cpi-report

Yellen Says Don’t Read Too Much Into Cooling CPI Data

*Treasury head says housing costs to feed inflation into 2023
*Yellen will meet with China central bank governor in Bali

(Bloomberg) -- Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called October’s positive inflation report in the US “a good reading,” but cautioned against relying too much on one data point.

"Core inflation was a lot lower than had been anticipated, and that’s in spite of the fact that we continue to get high readings on shelter,” Yellen told reporters during a visit to New Delhi.

Government data released Thursday showed inflation was lower than expected last month. The consumer price index rose 7.7% over the past 12 months, and by 6.3% when excluding food and energy.

Markets reacted positively to the news, assuming it might nudge the Federal Reserve toward slowing its pace of rate increases after four successive three-quarter-point hikes. Treasury yields plunged Thursday and stocks gained the most in a day since early 2020.

The Treasury chief has spoken in recent weeks about seeing signs that inflation would begin to slow, but emphasized Friday that some sectors would continue to fuel steep price increases.

In particular, housing costs, which make up about a third of CPI, are expected to add to the pain well into 2023.

“Shelter costs -- both owners’ equivalent rent and market rents -- are going to continue having momentum, adding to inflation on the high side for many months,” she said.(...)

[sudden and sharp]

[ Yes, I do...  ]

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/3dd140d2-a2a7-4882-b832-96950c3fb661

UK economy shrinks in third quarter as recession looms

Gross domestic product contracts more than expected in September

The UK economy contracted during the third quarter as it shrank more than expected in September, suggesting the country has entered what is forecast to be a prolonged recession.

Gross domestic product fell 0.6 per cent between August and September, the Office for National Statistics said on Friday, a larger drop than the 0.4 per cent forecast by economists polled by Reuters.

Output fell 0.2 per cent between the second and third quarters, the first such contraction in more than a year. Economists had expected shrinkage of 0.5 per cent.

The UK economy is now 0.2 per cent smaller than in February 2020, immediately prior to the Covid pandemic. Other major economies — including the US, Germany and France — have grown above pre-pandemic levels.

Sanjay Raja, economist at Deutsche Bank, said the UK GDP contraction in the third quarter was the result of “continued weakness in household and business confidence, higher inflation and higher interest rates in the economy”.(...)

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/9b0c3888-1852-4379-89c3-41d42fc91382

‘Jingle mail’ redux?

Goldman Sachs explores the risks of mortgage defaults

We wrote on Wednesday about the era of “mortgage dominance”, and how fears home loans were starting to hem in central banks — at least in some countries. It’s a topic we think is about to go Taylor Swift-big very soon.

Lo and behold, a new report on “the risk of mortgage defaults in a global housing downturn” has landed in our inbox, courtesy of Goldman Sachs economist Yulia Zhestkova.

The report mostly focuses on how rising mortgage rates, under-pressure property prices and delinquencies might lay out in the English-speaking major G10 economies. A bit Anglosphere-centric, but there are some token Scandinavian references [Ed: we get it, you’re from Norway] and it makes sense to limit the universe of analysis to make it at least vaguely digestible.

Goldman’s main conclusion will not surprise any FTAV readers. While the US is somewhat protected by the prevalence of long-term fixed rate mortgages, and Australia and New Zealand are vulnerable to payment shocks, the UK looks the diciest (but at least not doomed):

Overall, we see a relatively greater risk of a meaningful rise in mortgage delinquency rates in the UK. This reflects the shorter duration of UK mortgages, our more negative economic outlook, and the bigger sensitivity of default rates to downturns. However, even in the UK, our European economists expect that the skew of the payments shock towards wealthier households — which have accumulated significant excess savings during the pandemic — should mitigate the economic effects of the surge in UK mortgage rates.

Goldman Sachs focuses on four risks:
— The shock from rising interest rates
— The danger from rising unemployment
— Whether households default on loans because of negative equity
— The overall quality of mortgage underwriting

On the last risk factor, Goldman has some good news. It reckons that mortgage credit quality is “robust”, thanks to lasting memories from the global financial crisis, stricter regulations and regular stress tests of bank loan books.

Zhestkova is also optimistic that strategic defaults by underwater mortgage holders is a minimal risk. While house prices are declining (and have been for some time in places like New Zealand), a 10 per cent fall in home prices tends to increase mortgage delinquencies by less than 10 basis points in Australia, New Zealand, Canada and the UK. Even in the US — where there isn’t full recourse to anything but the home in question — “jingle mail” isn’t actually a big factor.





But the impact of soaring interest rates is going to bite bigly in economies with a lot of mortgage debt, and especially in those countries where most households borrow through floating-rate home loans.



In Australia and New Zealand, over half of all mortgages will reset to higher rates in 2023, and in the UK about 40 per cent will, according to Goldman Sachs. Norwegians, look away now.



In Norway, people are at least more sheltered by strong welfare net should unemployment start to rise markedly. Other countries are not so lucky.

The Goldman Sachs report estimates that a 1 per cent rise in a country’s unemployment rate tends to lift the mortgage delinquency rate by as much as 20 bps in the UK. Elsewhere it is not quite as acute, but income shocks tend to have a “persistent” impact, Goldman notes.



This is (thankfully) not another 2008. But given the recent ramp-up in house prices in many countries, the scale of the interest rate shock and what is likely to be an economic downturn in many places, property doesn’t feel safe as houses right now.

[Derby]

https://www.theguardian.com/food/2022/nov/10/prices-at-uks-top-restaurants-have-doubled-since-brexit

Prices at UK’s top restaurants ‘have doubled since Brexit’

Editor of Harden restaurant guides says prices of more than £200 a head at top eateries are ‘becoming the norm’

The price of a meal at the UK’s best restaurants has more than doubled since Brexit from £100 a head to more than £200, according to two new guide books.

Peter Harden, the editor of his eponymous restaurant guides, said: “We’ve gone very quickly from a time five years ago when charging over £100 a head was the outlier, to now, when for the very top restaurants £200 pounds a head is becoming the norm.”

For the first time Harden’s London Restaurant Guide has raised its top price threshold to £130 a head to reflect record menu price rises. The 2023 edition includes 15 restaurants in the capital with a guide price of more than £200 a head, compared with six in that bracket this year. (...)

[Derby]

https://twitter.com/BondHack/status/1591030123134083072

Sam Bankman-Fried previously boasted about never reading books.

As he'll soon have a lot of time on his hands, here's a suggested reading list:

*The Match King

*The Great Crash, 1929

*Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

*Crime and Punishment

[Derby]

https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/shelter-inflation-corvette-body-bucks

Right now the one factor driving inflation in the US is shelter.



And we know that the rental element is slowing rapidly!



“Loss to lease” is the gap between today's market asking rents and the average in-place rent (aka embedded or contract rent, which is what the CPI attempts to measure). As a general rule of thumb: The larger the loss to lease, the larger the renewal increase.

[AbiertoPorDemolicion]

Me permitirán que me repita.

Alguien nos puede aclarar cómo vamos a reducir en 7 años la deuda al 60%?

En serio lo pregunto.

Rescate BcE?
FMI?

Es que ambas me salen como rollover o alargamiento plazo.
Si no es a pelo.

Pp.cc.,  alguna orientación al respecto,  por favor?

Sds.

No lo vamos a hacer.
Ya está.
A veces pensáis demasiado.

Efectivamente, los gobiernos españoles ya tienen bastantes tablas y tradición en pasarse por el forro de ahí abajo las recomendaciones que vienen de "uropa", y esta vez no va a ser distinto. Ya les han dejado una puerta abierta: cláusula de escape. Quédense con esta frase, que se va a empezar a oír en todos los telediarios.

[Derby]

https://twitter.com/ftx_official/status/1591071832823959552

[Derby]

El objetivo es el 2%...

https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1591098229814591489

Inflation expectations ticked up in the preliminary survey of consumers by the University of Michigan this month:

The median 12-month-ahead expected inflation rate ticked up to 5.1% from 5% in October. Longer-run expectations stood at 3%, from 2.9% http://sca.isr.umich.edu

[el malo]

https://www.theguardian.com/food/2022/nov/10/prices-at-uks-top-restaurants-have-doubled-since-brexit

Prices at UK’s top restaurants ‘have doubled since Brexit’

Editor of Harden restaurant guides says prices of more than £200 a head at top eateries are ‘becoming the norm’

The price of a meal at the UK’s best restaurants has more than doubled since Brexit from £100 a head to more than £200, according to two new guide books.

Peter Harden, the editor of his eponymous restaurant guides, said: “We’ve gone very quickly from a time five years ago when charging over £100 a head was the outlier, to now, when for the very top restaurants £200 pounds a head is becoming the norm.”

For the first time Harden’s London Restaurant Guide has raised its top price threshold to £130 a head to reflect record menu price rises. The 2023 edition includes 15 restaurants in the capital with a guide price of more than £200 a head, compared with six in that bracket this year. (...)

Y los que no son top. Como/ceno fuera de casa fácilmente 6 veces a la semana y hay sitios a los que he dejado de ir porque la relación calidad/precio ya no me convence. Un sitio al que iba fácilmente 2 veces a la semana casi ha duplicado el precio y le dije al camarero que habían llegado a mi límite.

Me pregunto cuánta de esa subida es porque no encuentran pardillos europeos dispuestos a currar a £10/hora