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ECB’s Holzmann backs 0.75 percentage point increase in DecemberAustria’s central bank governor says there are ‘no signs’ that price pressures are easingThe European Central Bank needs to maintain the pace of rate rises at its next vote to convince the public that policymakers are “serious” about taming inflation, said Austria’s hawkish central bank chief.Robert Holzmann, head of the National Bank of Austria and member of the ECB’s governing council, backed a third straight 0.75 percentage point rise in the deposit rate at the next rate-setting meeting in mid-December. The move would raise benchmark borrowing costs to 2.25 per cent.His comments underline the potential for a clash at the next vote, with policymakers split between keeping up the pace and switching to smaller increases on the back of signs of a recession.Holzmann told the Financial Times that he could “see no signs that core inflation is reducing” in the eurozone and he expected only a “flattening out of growth, or a mild recession”, rather than a deep downturn in the 19-country bloc.Another big rate rise “would give a strong signal about our determination,” said the former economics professor who worked for several years at the World Bank. “It would tell businesses and trade unions we are serious so don’t underestimate us, be careful.”Inflation in the eurozone hit a record of 10.6 per cent in the year to October, reflecting soaring energy and food prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.Economists expect the headline rate of inflation to fall next year, though core prices, excluding energy and food, increased 5 per cent last month and are likely to keep rising well above the ECB’s 2 per cent target.Holzmann said he was still “open to changing my mind” based on the ECB’s new quarterly economic forecasts, out at the same time as next month’s meeting on December 15.ECB chief economist Philip Lane, one of its more dovish rate-setters, said in remarks published on Monday that 75 basis point rises may no longer be necessary as earlier increases meant that its benchmark deposit rate, now 1.5 per cent, was close to the point where it no longer supported growth. “The more we’ve already done, the less we need to do,” Lane told Market News.However, Slovenia’s central bank head Boštjan Vasle said the ECB should keep raising rates “even into the territory where monetary policy won’t be just neutral, but will become more restrictive”.Some European politicians have started to warn the ECB not to raise rates too high. Last month, Italy’s prime minister Giorgia Meloni said that tighter monetary policy was “considered by many to be a rash choice”, while France’s president Emmanuel Macron warned that he was worried about central banks “smashing demand” to tackle inflation.Holzmann said interest rates could have to rise to the point where they “caused pain”, but he added “hopefully it won’t come to that”.He said it was important to raise rates “early” to stop businesses and households betting that high inflation would endure. “Afterwards the pain is much, much larger,” he said.Companies across Europe have faced rising wage demands from workers to compensate for the higher cost of living, including in Austria. But Holzmann said there were no signs of a 1970s-style wage-price spiral. “I have not heard messages from industry in Germany and Austria that they fear that ‘OK if we get these wage increases we need to pass them on’,” he said.The ECB plans to discuss shrinking its €5tn bond portfolio at next month’s meeting and Holzmann said this could start before it had finished raising rates, adding that it was important to avoid short-term borrowing costs rising above long-term ones.This situation, known as an inverted yield curve, would be a challenge for Europe’s banking sector, which relies on being able to borrow cheaply in the short term to make longer-term loans at higher rates.“We have to make sure it doesn’t get to that point,” Holzmann said.
https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20221122/page/28/textviewEl PSOE aboga por subir el Salario Mínimo menos de lo que Díaz exigeSaludos.
¿No les sorprende la cantidad de comunicación "preparatoria" que hay con esta crisis?
@RobinWigg If there is a recession next year it will be the most widely predicted one in history, Torsten Sløk notes.
Juan Soto Ivars: "Un rasgo genuino de nuestra época es que ser censor es 'cool'"Juan Soto Ivars desgrana en Nadie se va a reír los pormenores de un juicio a la ironía ocurrido en España sin que nadie se haya dado cuenta.- Seguir leyendo: https://www.libertaddigital.com/cultura/libros/2022-11-22/juan-soto-ivars-un-rasgo-genuino-de-nuestra-epoca-es-que-ser-censor-es-cool-6956651/
Cita de: el malo en Noviembre 21, 2022, 20:41:54 pm¿No les sorprende la cantidad de comunicación "preparatoria" que hay con esta crisis?Fíjate lo que dice este tweet del editor de FTAlphaville:https://twitter.com/RobinWigg/status/1595039453634232327Citar@RobinWigg If there is a recession next year it will be the most widely predicted one in history, Torsten Sløk notes.De todas maneras, en España nos vendrán los cambios de fuera y "de sorpresa". Es lo habitual y no sé si estamos preparados para que sea de otra forma. En general aquí a la gente no le gusta que le avisen de nada negativo...somos un pais de gente "floja". Aunque me pese mucho.
Que cambios creeis que se pueden dar "desde fuera"?
Hoy en El País (versión papel) en páginas interiores viene una pequeña noticia con este título: "Orbán veta la creación de un centro para fomentar la democracia en la OTAN" A ver si algún compañero consigue el texto del articulito porque no tiene desperdicio.
Orbán veta la creación de un centro para fomentar la democracia en la OTANLa iniciativa, debatida en la Asamblea Parlamentaria de la Alianza en Madrid, recibió el respaldo de 29 de los 30 países aliadosMiguel González | Madrid - 22 nov 2022El presidente de Ucrania, Volodímir Zelenski, interviene por videoconferencia ante la Asamblea Parlamentaria de la OTAN reunida en Madrid.Alberto Ortega (Europa Press)El Gobierno húngaro de Viktor Orbán, al que la UE amenaza con congelar la entrega de fondos por vulnerar el Estado de Derecho, especialmente en la lucha contra la corrupción, ha vetado la creación de un centro de fomento de los valores democráticos en el seno de la OTAN. La iniciativa se ha debatido en la 68ª sesión anual de la Asamblea Parlamentaria de la Alianza Atlántica, que fue clausurada este lunes en Madrid, con participación de 269 diputados de los parlamentos de los 30 países aliados.En las conclusiones de la Comisión sobre Defensa y Seguridad de la Asamblea se incluyó un punto en el que se instaba a “concretar el compromiso con los valores democráticos comunes mediante la creación de un Centro para la Resiliencia Democrática en el seno de la OTAN, que serviría como recurso para promover los valores democráticos y proteger las instituciones que dan fuerza a las democracias aliadas”. Se trataría, explican fuentes de la Alianza, de poner en marcha un centro de excelencia como los que ya tiene la OTAN sobre ciberdefensa o desinformación.Fue el hasta ahora presidente de la Asamblea, el congresista estadounidense Gerarld E. Connelly quien, en la inauguración del plenario, sacó a la luz el debate al subrayar que, “por primera vez, el Concepto Estratégico [de la OTAN, aprobado en junio pasado en Madrid] identifica el autoritarismo como un reto para nuestro modo de vida democrático. No es solo Rusia, [es] también China o el autoritarismo en general, tanto dentro como fuera” de los países aliados, agregó. Por sí había dudas de a qué se refería, Connelly recordó que estaba en el interior del Capitolio cuando, el 6 de enero de 2021, “lo arrasó una turba violenta” que no aceptaba la derrota electoral de Donald Trump.Según el congresista, fue a raíz de ese episodio cuando planteó al secretario general de la OTAN, Jens Stoltenberg, la necesidad de dotarse de “una arquitectura concreta dedicada a promover la democracia”, pues la Alianza cuenta con cientos de departamentos especializados, “pero ni un armario escobero para fortalecer las instituciones democráticas”.“Hoy, 29 de los 30 [países] aliados apoyan nuestra propuesta para el Centro para la Resiliencia Democrática y necesitamos ese voto que nos falta y ustedes saben de quién estoy hablando”, concluyó.Aunque no la citó, aludía a Hungría, que rechazó la iniciativa con el argumento de que la OTAN “no debe imponer un modelo de democracia” a sus miembros, según fuentes conocedoras del debate. Orbán califica su modelo de gobierno de “democracia liberal”, pero el Parlamento europeo lo ha definido como un “régimen híbrido de autocracia electoral”. La OTAN toma sus decisiones por consenso, por lo que el veto de Hungria impide crear el centro prodemocracia.No es ese el único motivo de roce de Budapest con sus aliados: además de oponerse a las sanciones occidentales a Putin, Hungría es el único país, con Turquía, que aún no ha ratificado el ingreso de Suecia y Finlandia en la OTAN, aunque el Gobierno húngaro se ha comprometido a hacerlo en diciembre. Menos garantías hay con el turco Erdogan, que sigue exigiendo a los dos países nórdicos que actúen contra los refugiados kurdos en su territorio. Por eso, Stoltenberg no se atrevió ayer a comprometerse a que los líderes sueco y finlandés acudan ya como aliados de pleno derecho a la cumbre de Vilnius (Lituania), en julio de 2023, aunque aseguró que ambos países han recibido garantías de seguridad de varios aliados hasta que estén protegidos por el paraguas de la OTAN.El gran protagonista de la reunión de la Asamblea Parlamentaria fue el presidente ucranio, Volodímir Zelenski, quien intervino ante el plenario por videoconferencia. Tal como él reclamó a los diputados de la Alianza Atlántica, uno de los documentos aprobados en Madrid insta a los gobiernos y parlamentos de los países de la OTAN “a declarar sin la menor ambigüedad que el actual régimen ruso es un régimen terrorista”; una declaración que equivale a la ruptura de relaciones diplomáticas. Además, la Asamblea pide que se denuncie formalmente el Acta Fundacional OTAN-Rusia de 1997, que alumbró una fugaz etapa de cooperación entre ambas partes.También en línea con las demandas de Kiev, otra de las resoluciones aprobadas ayer aboga por crear “un tribunal internacional encargado de perseguir el crimen de agresión cometido por Rusia contra Ucrania” e imponer a Moscú la obligación de indemnizar por todos los daños causados.La creación de un tribunal especial incomoda a países que, como España, son partidarios de fortalecer la Corte Penal Internacional (CPI), con sede en La Haya (Holanda). Este objetivo, sin embargo, tropieza con el hecho de que ni Rusia ni Ucrania son parte de la Corte y Moscú puede obstaculizar su funcionamiento como miembro permanente del Consejo de Seguridad de la ONU. El Gobierno de Kiev, alegan las fuentes consultadas, tampoco quiere arriesgarse a verse sentado en el banquillo por los crímenes de guerra que hubieran podido cometer sus tropas. Por eso, la resolución de la Asamblea de la OTAN limita el ámbito de actuación de ese hipotético tribunal internacional a los crímenes de los invasores rusos.
Looking to buy a house? It's the worst time in decades to do soHousing market is rapidly deteriorating amid rapidly rising mortgage ratesThe highest mortgage rates in decades have made it one of the worst times in a generation for U.S. consumers to buy a new home.About four in five consumers describe buying conditions for homes as bad in November, according to the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey, which dates back to 1978. The growing concern over the housing market reflects buyer concerns about higher interest rates as the Fed wages the most aggressive war against inflation since the 1970s. Painfully high inflation and rising borrowing costs have already proven to be a lethal combination for the housing market, forcing potential buyers to pull back on spending. A confluence of data released this month shows that the housing market is rapidly deteriorating: Sales of existing homes tumbled in October for the ninth straight month; homebuilder sentiment fell to the lowest level since 2012 in November; and investor home purchases plunged 30%. Many experts agree the housing market is now experiencing a recession that will worsen as the Federal Reserve tightens policy at the fastest pace in three decades in order to crush runaway inflation. Policymakers have voted to approve six consecutive interest rate increases this year, including four consecutive 75-basis-point hikes in June, July, September and November.At the conclusion of their meeting last month, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signaled that officials plan to continue raising rates, despite Wall Street's hopes for a pause. "Let me say this," he told reporters. "It is very premature to be thinking about pausing. When people hear lags, they think about pauses. It's very premature, in my view, to talk about pausing our rate hikes. We have a ways to go."The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 6.61% this week, according to the latest data released Thursday from mortgage lender Freddie Mac. That is significantly higher than just one year ago when rates stood at 3.10%, although it's down from a peak of 7.08%. With mortgage rates rising, demand for new homes is rapidly drying up. Analysts are warning of a rapid slowdown in the housing market, with home prices expected to decline as much as 20%, according to an analysis from Dallas Fed economist Enrique Martínez-García.(...)
Bankman-Fried ran FTX as personal fiefdom, court hears‘Substantial amounts of money’ spent on items such as vacation homes in Bahamas, bankruptcy lawyer testifiesFTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried ran the cryptocurrency exchange as his “personal fiefdom” before its implosion, according to a lawyer working on the bankruptcy, with “substantial amounts of money” spent on items unrelated to the business such as vacation homes in the Bahamas.“We have witnessed one of the most abrupt and difficult collapses in the history of corporate America,” James Bromley of Sullivan & Cromwell told a US court on Tuesday. He added that bankruptcy proceedings had “allowed everyone for the first time to see under the covers and recognise the emperor had no clothes”.FTX filed for US bankruptcy protection on November 11 as its customers fled and executives discovered billions of dollars in missing funds, exacerbating turmoil in cryptocurrency markets.The team of lawyers charged with winding down FTX is attempting to identify a complex web of assets in order to repay creditors. The case has been marked by allegations of misconduct and major governance failures, as well as a jurisdictional dispute between the US and the Bahamas, where FTX’s small inner circle ran the business.According to the company, FTX’s overall valuation peaked at $40bn — $32bn for its international business and $8bn for its US operations based on funds raised from venture capital investors.Bromley said the bankruptcy team had found that “substantial funds” were transferred from the exchange to Bankman-Fried’s crypto hedge fund Alameda Research, and “substantial amounts of money were spent on things not related to the business”.This included around $300mn of real estate in the Bahamas that were “homes and vacation properties used by the senior executives” of FTX, he said.The Alameda hedge fund also appeared to have used FTX funds to make billions of dollars of illiquid venture investments in funds such as Sequoia Capital and companies like Elon Musk’s SpaceX and Boring Company.FTX filed for bankruptcy protection following an “effective run on the bank”, Bromley said, after rival crypto exchange Binance moved to liquidate its FTT tokens, the cryptocurrency issued by FTX. The token lost 80 per cent of its value in two days, tumbling from a peak of $9.6bn in total market value to just $422mn.Bromley also revealed that the team of lawyers and investigators working on the bankruptcy would investigate a transaction last year between FTX and Binance. The rival crypto exchange, which is run by Changpeng Zhao, divested an equity stake in FTX for around $2.1bn in cash and cryptocurrencies.FTX is now led by its new chief executive and chief restructuring officer John J Ray III. The bankruptcy team includes investigation firms such as Kroll, blockchain research group Chainalysis, and a cyber security firm whose identity has not been disclosed over security concerns as it battles hacking attempts on FTX and its assets.Bromley added that the company was working with the US government and international regulators with an interest in the FTX collapse, including the US Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.Prosecutors working with the Department of Justice’s Southern District of New York and the Financial Crimes Investigation Branch of Bahamas have launched two separate criminal probes into the implosion of FTX.A list of the 20 largest creditors in the FTX businesses has been sealed by the court. However, US bankruptcy judge John Dorsey ordered the lawyers to make public the names of individuals and entities on the bankruptcy creditors’ committee, which is likely to include institutional investors that acquired stakes in FTX.Dorsey also approved FTX’s requests to pay remaining employees and vendors.