Tema: PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Invierno 2022

[Derby]

[Derby]

Nunca ha sido tan verdad como hoy que ser es defenderse.

Absolutamente cierto.

!Feliz Navidad! a los participantes y visitantes del foro 

[JENOFONTE10]

Otro posible retardo del efecto en precio, podría ser que España no está entre los países desarrollados con mayor proporción de hipotecas a tipo variable.

Pensaba que no hay hipo fijas (los bancos no las dan o a tipo delirante) en España (y EU-Sur), mientras me parece que las de tipo fijo o capadas, son mayoria en Eu-medio-norte. En foros galos hay montones de hilos sobre la reconversión a tipo fijo- [...]

Para 'España no está entre los países desarrollados con mayor proporción de hipotecas a tipo variable', mi fuente: https://youtu.be/3D4NE5B5k7s?t=1134

"Pain! There are no 30 year fixed rate mortgages, most mortgages are variable- Heat map of consumer pain from rate hikes" (18' 52")
Es un gráfico de barras con comparativa para 22 países para dos datos/pais:
- 'home ownership rate' (España 4ª por la izqda. con 76%, por su mayoría de propietarios)
- 'Variable rate mortgages as percent of total mortgages' (España solo 45%)

Análisis: somos 4/22 en Pisitofilia propietaria, pero en Creditofagia hipotecaria hay varios países mas con mayor % de hipotecas a tipo variable (>70%, veo 10 de los 22 )

Saludos.
_______

PS: Un europeo tan norteño como Finlandia presenta 97% de hipotecas a tipo variable. Campeón empatado con Hong Kong.

[Negrule]

Feliz Navidad, y gracias a todos por vuestras opiniones y participación en el foro, un placer.

Gracias Asustadisimos por dejarnos disfrutar de tu sabiduría.

Bones festes !!!!!!

[JENOFONTE10]

En el caso de Marx, tanto que aún hoy se utiliza su nombre como insulto y la derecha se ordena en su contra, obligando a las izquierdas a renegar de él, que es como echar maldiciones contra Aristóteles o Tomas de Aquino. Algo estúpido a más no poder.

Último libro de J. R. Rallo:
Presentación oficial de 'Anti-Marx'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jTSCljW8oyY

Saludos.

[JENOFONTE10]

Esta noche celebramos los cristianos el nacimiento de Jesucristo en una 'portalera', construcción para resguardar ganado doméstico de la intemperie, típicamente, parcialmente techada y con ausencia de una de sus cuatro paredes.

Alquiler turístico, posada, parece que no encontraron.

Feliz Nochebuena.

[sudden and sharp]

BUY, DRS Book & HODL   


























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[Derby]

https://twitter.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1607160284455784448

@Mayhem4Markets Single family existing home sales drop to the weakest level in over a decade

[Derby]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/dec/26/experts-predict-housing-market-will-cool-in-2023-as-uk-enters-a-recession

Experts predict housing market will cool in 2023 as UK enters a recession

The slowdown is expected to intensify with price declines between 5% and 12%

The housing market will cool sharply next year after a bumpy 2022, industry experts are predicting, as the UK contends with recession and higher mortgage rates.

As the cost of living crisis has intensified amid soaring inflation and as interest rates have increased, house prices have already started falling month-on-month. The average house price dropped 2.3% in November from October – the most since the start of the financial crash in 2008 – according to Halifax.

The slowdown is expected to intensify, with all housing indicators flashing red as rates are poised to go higher and the UK enters a long recession.

The Bank of England is expected to continue to raise interest rates into 2023 from 3.5% now to a peak of about 4.75%, further dampening demand from buyers.

Property experts say this is likely to result in property price declines of between 5% and 12% next year, although some warn that in a worst-case scenario, they could crash by 15% to 20%. The latest data from the Office for National Statistics showed house prices were up by 12.6% in the year to October.

Kwasi Kwarteng’s disastrous mini-budget in September sent mortgage rates rocketing to above 6%, a level last seen in 2008. Mortgage rates have since fallen back with the average five-year fix at 5.6% according to Moneyfacts, but are still much higher than a year ago.

British banks and building societies expect to lend 23% less to homebuyers next year, taking mortgage volumes back to their level before the pandemic – and ending a two-year boom that lifted house prices by more than a quarter.

Trade body UK Finance has forecast that gross mortgage lending for house purchases will fall to £131bn in 2023 from £171bn this year and a peak of £189bn in 2021, when the market was fuelled by a stamp duty holiday. Property sales are set to drop to 1.01m next year from 1.27m in 2022.

The property firm Savills is predicting an even sharper drop in transactions, to 870,000, and a 10% drop in house prices in 2023, similar to buying agent Henry Pryor. “A slide, not a crash,” he said. “The housing market is like a supertanker; it takes ages to turn, change direction or change speed.”

The real estate firm Jones Lang LaSalle is forecasting a 6% drop in house prices next year, arguing that house price crashes have been rare in the UK. Both it and Savills expect a recovery to 1% price growth in 2024, as interest rates fall back and inflation is contained.

Robert Gardner, chief economist at Nationwide, expects a “modest decline” in house prices next year. “There’s good reason to believe that we can still achieve a soft landing.” He said that while the unemployment rate is likely to rise to about 5% from 3.7% now, this would still be low by historical standards, and could be partly due to people who are currently “inactive” rejoining the jobs market amid the cost of living squeeze, rather than massive layoffs.

Gardner noted that about 85% of mortgage balances are on fixed interest rates, and said even homeowners who have to refinance in the near term have had affordability testing at higher interest rates. “It’s going to be really difficult but the vast majority of people should be able to cope with it.”

The Bank of England has warned that 4m households face higher mortgage payments next year, with the typical payment going up by £250 to £1,000 a month. This would cause severe financial difficulties for 220,000 households.

Capital Economics’ central forecast is for house prices to fall by 12% by the end of 2023, but Andrew Wishart, senior economist at the consultancy, said in a worst-case scenario prices could plummet by up to 20%. “The initial drop in house prices has been sharper than in the financial crisis or the early 90s.

“For affordability to return to a sustainable level by the end of 2023, when we think mortgage rates will still be around 5%, the average house price would have to drop by 20%. On the other hand, were market and mortgage interest rates to drop faster than we expect, that would limit the fall in prices.”

The picture is different in the private rental market, where rent prices have surged to record levels amid a shortage of properties to rent and growing demand, partly because some would-be first-time buyers are continuing to rent in the hope of lower mortgage rates next year. Official figures showed UK private rents rising by 4% in November, the highest since records began in 2016.

Wishart thinks rental growth will be about double the average experienced in the pre-pandemic decade over the next five years, peaking at 5.1% next year. Savills sees rental growth rising even higher, to 6.5% before slowing to 4% in 2024.

[Derby]

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/new-corporate-stock-buyback-tax-poised-take-effect-2023-what-know

New corporate stock buyback tax poised to take effect in 2023: What to know

Excise tax on share repurchases could affect many companies

A new corporate tax on stock buybacks that is poised to take effect in January could cost U.S. companies billions of dollars.

The 1% levy on stock repurchases, which will apply to only publicly traded companies, was passed by Democrats earlier this year as part of a sweeping health care and climate spending package. The tax is estimated to raise about $74 billion over the next decade.

Democrats have said the 1% fee is designed to slow companies' tendency to buy back their own stock from investors with the tax.

"I hate stock buybacks," Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said earlier this year. "I think they are one of the most self-serving things that corporate America does."

Companies have been allowed to buy their own shares since 1982, and the practice has since become commonplace on Wall Street. In 2019, stock buybacks hit a record $1 trillion, according to the SEC. In the third quarter, buybacks among companies listed on the S&P totaled about $210 billion, down about 10% from the same period one year ago, according to S&P analyst Howard Silverblatt.

In the second quarter, companies spent about $210 billion, compared to roughly $281 billion in the first.

If the 1% tax had been in place during the third quarter, companies would have owed roughly $1.93 billion to Uncle Sam, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Still, finance chiefs remain largely unfazed by the penalty.

Businesses including Exxon, Lowe's and MasterCard have expanded programs or announced new ones in recent days to repurchase their stock, the Journal reported.

"We don’t like the tax; nobody likes it," Michael Mullican, chief financial officer at sporting goods retailer Academy Sports & Outdoors told the Journal. "But it’s not significant enough to where it would sway our thinking."

The Democrats' spending bill – dubbed the Inflation Reduction Act – also imposes a 15% minimum tax on corporations based on profits they publicly report on their financial statements to shareholders. The minimum book tax would only apply to companies that reported more than $1 billion in income. Democrats said the levy would affect around 200 of the country's largest corporations with profits exceeding $1 billion and that pay less than the current 21% rate for businesses.

Experts expect the two taxes to drag on 2023 earnings, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a 1.5% decline per share of S&P 500 companies. The earnings decreases are expected to hit industries like health care and IT because of the low effective tax rate.

UBS strategists led by Solita Marcelli, meanwhile, projected the new taxes would have a "very minimal 1% drag on S&P 500 earnings per share, although some companies will be more affected than others."

[Derby]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/receding-share-buybacks-imperil-e2-80-98pillar-of-support-e2-80-99-for-us-stock-market-in-2023/ar-AA15swRA

Receding share buybacks imperil ‘pillar of support’ for U.S. stock market in 2023

Stock buybacks may be peaking, removing “a potential pillar of support” for earnings per share in 2023, according to RBC Capital Markets.

“The dollar value of share buybacks has been receding, and the percent of companies reducing their share counts on a year-over-year basis has returned to past highs,” said Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC, in a note Monday. “Our earnings model assumes the net share count in the S&P 500 will remain flat” with levels seen in the third quarter through the end of next year, according to her note.

A new tax looms over buybacks, while companies also are facing higher borrowing costs, making funding share purchases with debt more expensive.

“Few are focused at all on a point I brought up last week: corporate buybacks – a major catalyst for the bull market since the Great Financial Crisis – will likely be dramatically reduced going forward because of a new 1% excise tax on them taking effect on Jan. 1, as well as corporations no longer being able to issue almost cost-free debt (like they had been able to for several years) to finance those buybacks,” according to a note Monday from Rick Bensignor, president of Bensignor Investment Strategies.

“That will be a huge bullish element that will be missing going forward,” he wrote.

Buybacks totaled $981.6 billion over the 12 months through September, “down from the record $1.005 trillion posted for the June 2022 period,” according to an emailed note Monday from Howard Silverblatt, a senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

“Buybacks remained top heavy,” he said in the note, pointing to the top 20 companies accounting for 49% of share repurchases in the third quarter.

Apple Inc. Google parent Alphabet Inc. Meta Platforms Inc. Microsoft Corp and Exxon Mobil Corp., Procter & Gamble Co. Lowe’s Cos. Marathon Petroleum Corp.   and Nvidia Corp. and Chevron Corp. ranked as the top 10 companies for buyback volume over that period, his note shows. Oil and gas producer Exxon Mobil returned to the top five for the first time since the third quarter of 2014, he said.

Energy is by far the S&P 500’s best-performing sector this year, soaring around 52% based on Monday morning trading, according to FactSet data, at last check. All the other S&P 500 sectors were showing year-to-date losses, with the broad index down more than 19% so far this year.

“Digging down a bit deeper, for most major sectors the percent of companies reducing their share counts on a year-over-year basis is near past highs or starting to ease from them,” said RBC’s Calvasina.

And with companies in the area of technology, internet, media and telecommunications — or TIMT — under pressure, “we think it’s tough to paint a rosy picture for share buyback activity over the course of the next year,” she said.

“We’ve said in the past that buybacks represent a source of upside to our EPS forecast, but now see this issue as more of a source of downside risk to EPS in coming years,” she wrote, referring to earnings per share.

Stocks have tumbled in 2022 as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to combat still high inflation and investors worry the Fed’s aggressive monetary policy risks tipping the U.S. into a recession next year. 

U.S. stocks were trading down Monday afternoon, with the S&P 500 off 0.6%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipping 0.3% and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropping 1.2%, FactSet data show, at last check.

[Derby]

https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/world-economy-is-headed-for-recession-in-2023-amid-rate-hikes-research-122122600070_1.html

World economy is headed for recession in 2023 amid rate hikes: Research

That institution warned in October that more than a third of the world economy will contract and there is a 25% chance of global GDP growing by less than 2% in 2023

The world faces a recession in 2023 higher borrowing costs aimed at tackling inflation cause a number of economies to contract, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research.

The global economy surpassed $100 trillion for the first time in 2022 but will stall in 2023 as policy makers continue their fight against soaring prices, the British consultancy said in its annual World Economic League Table.

“It’s likely that the world economy will face recession next year as a result of the rises in interest rates in response to higher inflation,” said Kay Daniel Neufeld, director and head of Forecasting at CEBR.

The report added that, “The battle against inflation is not won yet. We expect central bankers to stick to their guns in 2023 despite the economic costs. The cost of bringing inflation down to more comfortable levels is a poorer growth outlook for a number of years to come.”

The findings are more pessimistic than the latest forecast from the International Monetary Fund. That institution warned in October that more than a third of the world economy will contract and there is a 25% chance of global GDP growing by less than 2% in 2023, which it defines as a global recession.

Even so, by 2037, world gross domestic product will have doubled as developing economies catch up with the richer ones.

The shifting balance of power will see the East Asia and Pacific region account for over a third of global output by 2037, while Europe’s share shrinks to less than a fifth.

The CEBR takes its base data from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook and uses an internal model to forecast growth, inflation and exchange rates.

China is now not set to overtake the US as the world’s largest economy until 2036 at the earliest — six years later than expected. That reflects China’s zero Covid policy and rising trade tensions with the west slow, which have slowed its expansion.

CEBR had originally expected the switch in 2028, which it pushed back to 2030 in last year’s league table. It now thinks the cross-over point will not happen until 2036 and may come even later if Beijing tries to take control of Taiwan and faces retaliatory trade sanctions.

“The consequences of economic warfare between China and the West would be several times more severe than what we have seen following Russia’s attack on Ukraine. There would almost certainly be quite a sharp world recession and a resurgence of inflation,” CEBR said.

“But the damage to China would be many times greater and this could well torpedo any attempt to lead the world economy.”

It also predicted that:

1.- India will become the third $10 trillion economy in 2035 and the world’s third largest by 2032
2.- The UK will remain the world’s sixth largest economy, and France seventh, over the next 15 years but Britain is no longer set to grow faster than European peers due to “an absence of growth oriented policies and the lack of a clear vision of its role outside of the European Union.”
3.- Emerging economies with natural resources will get a “substantial boost” as fossil fuels play an important part in the switch to renewable energy
4.- The global economy is a long way from the $80,000 per capita GDP level at which carbon emissions decouple from growth, which means further policy interventions are needed to hit the target of limiting global warming to just 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-26/boj-s-kuroda-emphasizes-december-policy-tweaks-are-not-exit

BOJ’s Kuroda Emphasizes December Policy Tweaks Are Not Exit

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda stressed that the bank’s latest tweaks on its bond yield control program were not the beginning of an exit of monetary easing, but a way to make it sustainable and run smoothly. 

“This is definitely not a step toward an exit,” Kuroda said in a speech at an event hosted by business lobby Keidanren on Monday. “The bank will aim to achieve the price stability target in a sustainable and stable manner, accompanied by wage increases, by continuing with monetary easing under the framework of yield curve control.” 

His comments came after the policy adjustments last week to double the upper limit of the 10-year bond yield shocked global financial markets and sparked speculation that the BOJ was taking a step toward normalizing policy. 

Kuroda said on Monday that the move was aimed at improving market functions after the deterioration of the nation’s bond market was observed. The governor, whose term is set to end in April, said that the bank will maintain its “utmost support” by keeping accommodative financial conditions. 

“Labor market conditions in Japan are projected to tighten further and firms’ price- and wage-setting behavior is also likely to change,” Kuroda said. “We are approaching a critical juncture in breaking out of the prolonged period of low inflation and low growth since the collapse of the bubble economy.” 

[Zugzwang]

Creo que es interesante compartir esto, ya que deja varios detalles. E incide y mucho en el conflicto generacional, no es de extrañar que el ministro Escrivá haya aplazado la reforma.

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12088145/12/22/Jose-Ignacio-CondeRuiz-Las-pensiones-exigiran-cambios-mas-duros-por-evitar-la-reforma-necesaria.html

José Ignacio Conde-Ruiz: "Las pensiones exigirán cambios más duros por evitar la reforma necesaria"
"Ha sido una legislatura perdida en términos de sostenibilidad de las pensiones"


José Miguel Arcos
Madrid 6:00 - 25/12/2022
José Ignacio Conde-Ruiz es economista especializado en pensiones y lidera ahora el Foro de Expertos del Instituto Santalucía. Es catedrático en la UCM y subdirector de Fedea. Fue uno de los sabios de la reforma de 2013 y ahora analiza la reforma del presente que pone en vilo el futuro de las pensiones en España.

¿Qué es el Foro de Expertos del Instituto Santalucía?

El Foro de Expertos del Instituto Santalucía es un grupo de académicos independiente. Arrancó analizando la sostenibilidad del sistema público de pensiones, y ya observamos que la economía se verá afectada por otros retos globales. La solución de las pensiones pasará por aprovechar el talento sénior y será necesaria la nueva jubilación del siglo XXI que combine trabajo y pensión. Empezamos a tratar temas de talento sénior, nos preocupamos por el cambio tecnológico y la importancia de que los mayores se adapten. Finalmente abordamos la sostenibilidad en general, y en particular la medioambiental, las finanzas verdes y el ahorro a largo plazo.

¿Vuestra primera pronunciación será sobre esta reforma?

Bajo mi opinión personal, creo que ha sido una legislatura perdida en términos de mejorar la sostenibilidad de las pensiones. Escrivá rompió la reforma en dos partes y creo que es un error porque la primera parte garantiza por ley la suficiencia de las pensiones, que es lo que todo el mundo quiere oír, aunque necesita una válvula de escape dada la inflación actual. El error de esta estrategia de negociación es dejar para una segunda parte las medidas de sostenibilidad, una reforma más impopular en la que recortas a cambio de nada.

¿Plantea una reforma global?

Hay que introducir una reforma global que busque aunar los dos principios básicos de suficiencia y sostenibilidad. Con Bruselas te has comprometido a realizar estas dos partes, y de hecho en los documentos oficiales que se enviaron se dice que se va a alargar el periodo de cómputo a 35 años. Esto era lo lógico y lo ocurrido en el pasado donde se pasó de 2 a 8, 15 y 25 años. Ahora se habla de ampliar a 30 años, pero descartando los 2 años peores, una medida sin impacto en la sostenibilidad. Al final deberán subir las cotizaciones, que tienen un límite viendo el paro juvenil, o que las pensiones sean menos generosas.

¿Cómo debería haberse hecho?

Con la parte positiva que a todo el mundo le gusta, como la protección de las pensiones de la pérdida del poder adquisitivo, e incluyendo medidas de ayuda a la sostenibilidad, como ampliar el periodo de cálculo a toda la vida laboral o 35 años. Es difícil que se encuentre el consenso en una reforma que, por tu propio diseño de la negociación, te ha impedido poder hacerlo bien. Creo que desde el principio era evidente que se tenía que haber buscado un proceso de negociación global integral.

¿Y le parece útil el 'plan Escrivá'?

Es la reforma del gatopardo, es decir, hagamos que todo cambie para que nada cambie. En el fondo, creo con esta reforma no vamos a engañar a nadie y no va a solucionar la sostenibilidad. Me molesta que tenga que venir la Comisión a recalcarme que el problema del sistema público de pensiones no está adaptado a la nueva demografía. Deberíamos ser nosotros quienes dijéramos a los dirigentes que queremos un sistema sostenible ya que el gasto subirá en 3,5 puntos del PIB hasta 2050.

¿Llegará una reforma más dura?

Es posible que la reforma sirva para llegar a las elecciones sin hacer nada más, los objetivos políticos se alejan de la lógica económica. No van a intentar hacer nada que pueda suponer un desgaste político el día de hoy. Habrá cambios más duros por evitae la reforma necesaria y toda esta legislatura perdida en términos de pensiones va a generar una reforma con medidas mucho más estrictas que la que hubiera sido de haber aprovechado este mandato, especialmente para los jóvenes. Cuando ves que la carga de los jóvenes es tan alta empiezas a pensar si tiene sentido que en el futuro se cargue cada vez más a los trabajadores. El pacto entre generaciones que garantiza la sostenibilidad se está arriesgando.

¿Y la factura de la Seguridad Social?

Actualmente, la estrategia es la de intentar maquillar el déficit, es decir pintar déficit cero en la Seguridad Social. Y digo pintar porque el déficit del sistema de pensiones supera el 2% del PIB, pero se traspasan los gastos al Estado. Es un error porque provocas un déficit por no querer adaptar tu sistema a la nueva demografía sin afectar a los actuales jubilados.

¿Se deberían actualizar todas las pensiones con el IPC actual?

El Gobierno y el principal partido de la oposición están a punto de cometer un error histórico por no apoyar la suspensión en 2023 la aplicación de la revalorización automática. Solo la revalorización de todas las pensiones sería equivalente a subir un 29% el gasto total en Educación; o un 18% del gasto total en Sanidad, o a subir 1,5 veces el gasto en Atención a la Dependencia; o a triplicar el gasto en vivienda.

Jubilarse antes sale más barato...

Es una paradoja que la pensión sea más alta si te jubilas anticipadamente que si lo haces a la edad legal. Hay penalizaciones entorno al 5% con una revalorización del 8,5%, un claro incentivo a que se jubile anticipadamente en diciembre. Es más que probable que veamos cómo las altas de jubilación se disparan en diciembre de 2022, con el consiguiente aumento del déficit de la Seguridad Social en 2023. Deberíamos solo revalorizar las pensiones más bajas un 8,5%, o incluso más, pero que las pensiones más altas entre en el pacto de rentas. Todas sin excepción deberían subir con el IPC en una situación normal, pero no entiendo que un colectivo tan grande se quede fuera del reparto del coste de la guerra.

¿Estamos ante una 'reforma silenciosa'?

La base máxima tienes que subirla en paralelo a la pensión máxima porque, si no, llevas a cabo lo que los expertos han denominado la reforma silenciosa, y privas de capacidad de ahorro al trabajador. Provoca una reducción de la contributividad del sistema y convierte una cotización vista como un salario en diferido en un impuesto. Si el objetivo es subir los impuestos, mejor subir el IRPF.

Las cotizaciones subirán más que las pensiones...

Sería una reforma al extremo, cambiando la dureza del sistema por la puerta de atrás. No me parece correcto, porque es injusto con el trabajador. Es paradójico que el país con mayor desempleo juvenil de Europa se oponga a adaptar el sistema de pensiones a la nueva demografía, y que como solución solo se le ocurra la subida de cotizaciones. Pretende hacerlo como parte de los compromisos adoptados para recibir los fondos Next Generation que, con ese nombre deberían velar por el bienestar de los jóvenes. En fin...

¿Habría que mirar más a nuestros vecinos de Portugal?

Son un ejemplo en política económica al suspender la ley para hacer un pacto de rentas. Los políticos deberían ponerse de acuerdo para suspender la ley y comprometerse a una recuperación gradual del poder adquisitivo. Acabaremos el año con una factura de 60.000 millones de déficit que pasamos a los jóvenes.

¿Los jóvenes están en el debate de pensiones?

Son muy pocos e irrelevantes para los políticos porque pesan muy poco en las elecciones. Lo tienen difícil porque los políticos nunca van a hacer cosas que les beneficien y es un problema que me preocupa bastante. Reformarán el sistema de pensiones lo mínimo e imprescindible, y con ello se van a comer todo el margen fiscal que tenemos por delante. O votamos pensado en los jóvenes, o todos los recursos públicos irán hacia la tercera edad.

[cujo]

Las pensiones altas las cobran los q las han cotizado ... las bajas no , y las no contributivas ni te cuento .
El único pacto de rentas sería q adios a las no contributivas .
Me hace gracia lo de subir un 8% las bajas o las no contributivas y el q ha cotizado una barbaridad ese q se joda.

Y por supuesto antes de tocar las pensiones , acabar con el estado de las autonomías y fusionar miles de ayuntamientos.