Tema: PPCC-Pisitófilos Creditófagos-Invierno 2022

[sudden and sharp]

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~4>






[ 92% ]

[sudden and sharp]

El milagro de José María: consigue que lo contraten a los 60 años después de estar parado desde 2010
https://www.elespanol.com/reportajes/20221227/milagro-jose-maria-consigue-contraten-despues-parado/727177619_0.html
José María llevaba 12 años buscando empleo. Desde 2018, además, no recibía ningún tipo de ayuda: ni siquiera le dieron el ingreso mínimo vital.




[ Peak kurränten. ]

[Derby]

https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1607739205525831681

@NickTimiraos U.S. home prices declined 0.3% in October, the fourth consecutive monthly decline, according to the Case-Shiller national index

All 20 cities in the U.S. index posted monthly declines

[Derby]

[Derby]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/same-building-different-prices-a-two-speed-property-market-cant-last-11672153936

Same Building, Different Prices: a Two-Speed Property Market Can’t Last

A gap has opened up between what private landlords like Blackstone think real estate is worth and the more pessimistic views of stock investors

In recent weeks, private property funds like Blackstone’s nontraded, semiliquid BREIT vehicle have had to explain their jarringly  strong performance relative to listed stocks. BREIT has reported returns of 8.4% so far this year, compared with around minus 25% for publicly traded U.S. real-estate investment trusts. The fund was forced to freeze redemptions after a number of clients asked to cash out at its seemingly rosy valuations. Another big nontraded fund, Starwood Real Estate Income Trust, has also closed its gates.

Blackstone isn’t the only private landlord whose valuations appear optimistic. The NCREIF Property Index, which tracks commercial real estate owned by institutional investors, has returned 16% in 2022, although gains slowed in the third quarter.

The gap between REITs and private funds can’t last, as building values will be hit by the same factors regardless of who owns them. The only uncertainty is whether the difference shrinks because real-estate stocks recover or landlords like Starwood take a haircut.

Blackstone thinks it will be the former, and that property values won’t fall as much as share prices now imply. U.S. residential REITs are currently trading at a 26% discount to net asset value for example, and office stocks are at a 39% discount, according to data from real-estate research firm Green Street. This is a good indicator of where shareholders think the underlying value of the property is headed in reaction to rising interest rates and expectations of a recession.

If shareholders are right, it is a bad sign for BREIT, which has more than half of its fund in residential property. There is slightly better news on e-commerce warehouses, which make up more than a fifth of BREIT’s holdings. Listed industrial landlords such as e-commerce warehouse owner Prologis are trading at a smaller discount to NAV of 6.5% on average. Shareholders seem more confident that rents can be raised in warehouses than in housing.

Timing is one explanation for the gap. While shares in listed REITs react to new information in real time, nontraded funds may only be repriced monthly or quarterly based on valuation estimates. Moreover, the data on recent transactions that property appraisers use for these estimates is out of date, says Lonnie Hendry, head of advisory services at real-estate firm Trepp: “Deals that occur today were probably agreed up to six months ago…and don’t reflect what the price would be today.”

Few buildings are changing hands at the moment, which makes it even harder to understand what is going on with prices. In the third quarter, the volume of U.S. commercial real estate deals was down a quarter compared with a year ago, according to CBRE.

But transactions that are happening suggest values are heading south. Take multifamily residential property, which both the Starwood and Blackstone funds are very exposed to: The CoStar index shows that values peaked in June and then declined by 3.6% through October.

That still leaves a significant gap to close, as deals in October were priced 28% above the current values implied by stocks, according to an analysis by Brad Case, chief economist at rental housing investor and developer Middleburg Communities. He says trough prices may not be reflected in the data that private funds use to value their portfolios until May of next year, assuming that the slight recovery in residential REIT stocks in December is a sign of the bottom.

Property stocks could bounce back if the economy and the housing market hold up better than expected. More plausibly, by the time most investors are able to get their money out of gated private funds, it won’t be worth what they thought.

[Derby]

Madera para la construcción

@Barchart Lumber is now back to pre-pandemic prices

[Derby]

https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1607698935254077440

@Schuldensuehner OUCH! Govt bond market sell-off continues w/German 10y yields jump to 2.52%, highest level since 2011.

[Derby]

Cómo va cambiando la narrativa...y cómo se explica pedagógicamente, para que vaya calando
de la forma más natural  En España no es posible: nuestra pasión por los pisitos y el drama lo hace muy difícil.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/housing-slump-set-to-give-fed-an-inflation-fighting-assist-11671915427

Housing Slump Set to Give Fed an Inflation-Fighting Assist Nick Timiraos

A slowdown in new household growth could ease prices and rents, but rising wages cause worry

The Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases have brought on a housing slump as severe, by some metrics, as that of 2007-09, inflicting pain on prospective buyers, homeowners, builders and other industries linked to real estate.

For the Fed, this is a feature, not a bug: Slumping housing could help deliver the lower economic activity and inflation that the Fed wants in the coming year. 

The pandemic that hit the U.S. in March 2020 delivered an unexpected housing boom, driven by working from home, Americans’ desire for more space and the Fed’s slashing interest rates to near zero.

In the ensuing recovery, job growth fueled household formation as younger adults sought to live alone rather than with roommates or their parents.

The result: Housing construction soared. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index leapt 45% from January 2020 to June 2022. Apartment rents also climbed sharply.

Caught off guard by the strength and persistence of inflation, the Fed reversed course in 2022, raising rates seven times to between 4.25% and 4.5% this month. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage jumped from around 4% in March to 7% this past fall. It recently eased back to 6.3%. The monthly mortgage payment on a home at the median U.S. price was up 43% in November from the start of the year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Higher interest rates check inflation by curbing spending, hiring and investment. The rate-sensitive housing sector is usually the first to feel this, but the speed and the severity this year has stunned longtime market participants. 

“This is the worst rate shock I’ve ever seen by a mile,” said Lou Barnes, a third-generation mortgage banker in Boulder, Colo., who entered the lending business in 1978. He warned that the full effects have yet to be felt.

Buyers have retreated to the sidelines, while sellers who have locked in a low interest rate have less reason to sell.

Sales of existing homes fell in November for a record 10th straight month. Economists at Fannie Mae and Goldman Sachs forecast they will drop below 4 million in 2023, lower than during the 2006-11 housing bust.

Rent growth has also slowed as the household formation boom of the last two years appears to have ended and the supply of new apartment units hits a 40-year high.

Housing demand can grow because of increases in population or because new households are formed. Census Bureau information shows that the share of one-person households surged after the pandemic, likely reflecting behavioral changes as opposed to population growth, said Thomas Lawler, an independent housing economist in Leesburg, Va.

He estimated that if the share of households as a percentage of the population had been constant from 2021 to 2022, household growth would have been half as large as shown by Census Bureau figures.

If that surge proves to be a pandemic-related anomaly, household formation could be set for a bigger drop. “The cost to form a new household has gone up a whole lot,” said Mr. Lawler. “In my mind, it would be shocking if household growth actually hasn’t slowed dramatically.”

Typically, demand for rental housing rises in the late spring when college students graduate, but that didn’t happen this year, according to Jay Parsons, a housing economist at rental software company RealPage. “We’ve never seen a period like this, where we’ve had so much job growth, but so little demand for any type of housing,” he said. The demand unleashed by the pandemic “pulled forward” demand from the future, he said.

In November, single-family housing starts hit their lowest since the early months of the pandemic, while higher borrowing costs are chilling new apartment investment. “Anyone in the residential development business—for sale, for rent—is at a stop right now,” said Ric Campo, chief executive of Camden Property Trust, a Houston-based owner of 58,000 apartment units.

A housing slowdown could also crimp demand for appliances, renovations and moving services, among other businesses. Dan Neufeld, who runs Mt. Diablo Landscaping in Alexandria, Va., with his father, realized by June that the phone had stopped ringing. “We looked at each other and said, ‘My God, what’s happening? We should have way more estimates and appointments,’” said Mr. Neufeld.

He figures that the boom in patio installations that his company enjoyed during the Covid bubble—2020 and 2021 were two of his best years—brought forward sales that might have occurred in later years. “Right now, no one is pulling the trigger on a $20,000 or $30,000 patio renovation,” said Mr. Neufeld.

All this could have powerful effects on inflation.

Inflation was initially driven up by prices for such things as autos and furniture. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine this year further boosted prices for food, energy and other commodities.

Housing also contributed, with a lag, as rents and home prices soared. Housing accounts for a third of the consumer-price index and a sixth of the personal-consumption expenditures price index, which the Fed targets.

With housing prices now falling and rents growing much more slowly, shelter’s contribution to inflation could fall sharply in the coming year. It is one reason Fed officials project inflation will slow to 3.1% at the end of next year from around 6% now.

Fed officials aren’t sure that is enough to bring inflation durably down to their 2% target. They worry that growing incomes could sustain consumer spending in ways that allow companies to keep passing along higher prices.

Mr. Campo is sympathetic to Fed officials’ worry about wages. While Camden Property Trust’s share price has fallen 37% this year, the company is coming off one of its best-ever years, and his employees—with rising bills of their own—are expecting bigger pay raises.

“The pressure is on now: We’re going to raise wages more than we would normally,” he said. “You’re going to have a lot of wage pressure from companies that have to give more than the normal 3%. The question is, what is it—5%? 6%? 7%?”

[Benzino Napaloni]

El milagro de José María: consigue que lo contraten a los 60 años después de estar parado desde 2010
https://www.elespanol.com/reportajes/20221227/milagro-jose-maria-consigue-contraten-despues-parado/727177619_0.html
José María llevaba 12 años buscando empleo. Desde 2018, además, no recibía ningún tipo de ayuda: ni siquiera le dieron el ingreso mínimo vital.




[ Peak kurränten. ]

Estremecedor . Me alegro por el buen hombre.

Vamos camino del pleno empleo, no lo duden. Pero de una manera poco agradable y unas consecuencias colaterales curiosas.

[sudden and sharp]

 

[asustadísimos]

FTX y CBDC.—

Qué curioso que se hable mal de las CBDC (monedas digitales de los bancos centrales) justo cuando toca hablar mal de FTX (plataforma de intercambio de criptomonedas).

Además, la crisis del criptomonetarismo forma parte de la crisis general.

Esta vez FTX es la filatelia financiera española. Es el canario en la mina.

FTX tiene dos elementos cruciales de toda estafa piramidal pura:

• el dinero de los que entran se usa para pagar a los (pocos) que se salen (solo funciona 'growth in progress'); y

• para dar empaque a la estafa, adquieren inmuebles; no solo, para su cuartel general, compraron con tu dinero una 'oceanside parcel of land' en lo mejor de lo mejor de Bahamas, sino que 'corporate money was used to buy real estate, but records weren’t kept'.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/sam-bankman-fried-ftx-alameda-bankruptcy-collapse-11668824201

https://www.wsj.com/articles/crypto-firm-ftx-landed-in-the-bahamas-with-a-bang-and-now-the-bahamas-is-picking-up-the-pieces-11669326455

Sobre la criptoestafa:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4qrA-0bUOE
(La 'empresa' está sujeta a las 'regulaciones', ja, atención, de REINO UNIDO y está domiciliada en LONDRES —min. 12:51—. ¿Entienden para qué querían el 'bréxit'? Evidentemente, los inspectores financieros de la UE no tienen nada que hacer. Solo cabe aplicar el donde las dan las toman, como pone en evidencia este magnífico vídeo de Lord Draugr).

Denigrar las 'cbdc' —que son una bendición para los buenos y una pesadilla para los malos— forma parte de la criptoestafa:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zi60V9EMT58

Las cbdc son la salida a la criptoestafa. El sistema cbdc es un sistema de pagos que borra de golpe el engaño de que las cripto son monedas. Las cbdc sí son dinero legal. Encierran una relación obligacional de crédito que compromete al soberano monetario, al Estado. Son transmisibles, atención, con un registro o-f-i-c-i-a-l, como el actual de la deuda pública anotada, aunque se instrumente con tecnología 'blockchain'.

Por ejemplo, bastaría con obligar a que las transacciones inmobiliarias se realizaran con cbdc para que quedara laminado para siempre todo residuo popularcapitalista y el sistema capitalista quedara liberado de parásitos pop-cap.

La banca actual es, prácticamente, sector público empresarial, así que no importa que le salga un competidor centralizado en sistemas de pagos. Y la banca encontraría un nuevo negocio: la colaboración con el sistema de pagos público, como colabora hoy con el fisco.

Las cbdc son imparables:

https://www.bis.org/about/bisih/topics/cbdc.htm

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2022/09/Picture-this-The-ascent-of-CBDCs

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/paym/digital_euro/html/index.es.html

[Benzino Napaloni]

Ya te puedes ir preparando para un Euribor al 4%



 

[Derby]

Ya te puedes ir preparando para un Euribor al 4%

 

https://www.ft.com/content/87ca91ac-02cb-42ed-9c64-b274ac078103

Leading ECB policymaker hints at sharp climb to peak rates

Dutch governor Klaas Knot signals European Central Bank will keep raising rates as ‘second half’ of tightening cycle begins

(...) However, growth in the bloc is grinding to a halt, leaving central bankers facing a delicate balancing act between fighting inflation and exacerbating the slowdown.

“The risk of us doing too little is still the bigger risk,” Knot said. “We are just at the beginning of the second half.” Deciding when it had tightened policy enough would be the “main challenge” for the ECB next year.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/opinion/2022/12/27/63ab61e3e5fdeaa72e8b4661.html

https://www.expansion.com/economia/2022/12/27/63aadd5a468aeb73418b4576.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/inmobiliario/2022/12/28/63ab96f0e5fdea546d8b4680.html

Saludos.