Re: Tema: PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Primavera 2023

[Lem]

(abrevio por no torturar a la gente con páginas infinitas)

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/19/business/new-zealand-housing-prices.html

Where Housing Prices Have Crashed and Billions in Wealth Have Vanished

Michael Wilson was hopeful when he put his three-bedroom house up for sale: Over a dozen would-be buyers came to the initial showing.

But about a year later, the property is still for sale. Offer after offer fell through because the prospective buyers were unable to sell their homes.

Welcome to New Zealand, one of the world’s most troubled housing markets. Over the last 18 months, homeowners and investors have lost billions of dollars in wealth after prices that spiked during the Covid pandemic started plunging as mortgage rates also soared.

el comentario de Mr. Faber es para enmarcar.

por ilustrar, apenas se ha rebobinado la mitad del incremento durante la era Covid:

[Lem]

https://www.ft.com/content/9940b3b2-1988-4658-95cb-fa312bd23185

UK households remortgaging in 2024 face £2,900 rise in annual payments

New estimate of rising cost of borrowing increases pressure on Rishi Sunak to help families

UK households that come to the end of fixed-rate mortgage deals next year face an average £2,900 increase in annual payments, putting Rishi Sunak under pressure to defuse an election-year time bomb.

The estimated increase in payments by the Resolution Foundation think-tank reflects concern that the UK has a worse inflation problem than other countries and that the Bank of England will need to raise interest rates to almost 6 per cent next year, when a general election is expected.

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey on Friday called for a targeted £3bn “mortgage protection fund” for people whose homes would otherwise be repossessed, in a sign of growing political heat on the issue.

But the prime minister and his chancellor Jeremy Hunt argue that such a move would be dangerous because it would fuel inflation.

Sunak said on Wednesday that the government’s “number one economic priority” was taming high inflation.

The political row comes after another week of mortgage rate increases by lenders, including NatWest, Nationwide and HSBC, in moves that followed poor official inflation data last month that prompted financial markets to increase their expectations of interest rate rises by the BoE.

“It is serious,” said one senior government figure. “That’s why we are fully focused on halving inflation by the end of the year. Inflation is the disease in the economy.”

The BoE is likely to raise interest rates from 4.5 per cent to 4.75 per cent when the Monetary Policy Committee meets on Thursday, although some economists think a larger increase is possible if there is another bad set of inflation figures on Wednesday.


(...)

acerca del artículo, tuit-comentario de un muy colorido hedge fund manager conocido por los lares anglo por haber estado en el lado de los ganadores de 2008. ha estado criticando las subidas de tipos y dice que solo hay cuatro personas en el mundo que comprendan como funciona el dinero:

Anyone read the front page of the Pink Times today ?

Totally insane...

It feels like a combination of the £ eviction from the euro exchange rate system a million years ago and all those  preposterous declarations to raise rates to infinity.

On 16 Sep 92 they raised rates from 10 to 12%. Market didn't budge. Kept selling Sterling. No way they could not crush the economy at 12% rates. The bluff was ignored

Feeling peeved, the raised again, later that day, to 15%, and that's when everyone knew the gig was really truly up

Soros and Stan yawned, yeah go immolate yourself, they sold more £

You see, threats have to be credible...

And 2006 till 2008 when mortgages had to reprice from teaser to reality

The BofE was really hopeless back then as well, they didn't cut rates, they spoke gibberish about being worried about inflation. The economy was set to implode

Their " huff and I'll puff  and I'll blow your house down" rhetoric is possibly worse now

Yeah, go and immolate yourself

Present expectation of terminal British rates are 6 %

This would imply an average hike in annual mortgage pyts of £2.9k

Its not gonna happen, its already a bloodbath

I got my ex family home over there and the landlord is calling time. He earns a 2.5% gross yield and his mortgage is way above that, and worse ? there's no bid

We are so close to Armageddon

Complete idiocy. Residential and commercial properties are set to reprice higher. Insolvencies are set to be legendary. And all because wage gains in sectors bereft of post Brexit vacancies are surging

Oh, and the price of sourdough is much higher

Inflation is a monetary phenomenon; someone please tell the B of E

Brace, Brace, Brace

https://twitter.com/hendry_hugh/status/1670114708844695552

[el malo]

El Euribor de junio empieza dar pánico



@el malo, ya te decía que la bajada del Euríbor era momentánea y que no podía durar. Hombre de poca fe .

El blog de Calópez es una mina de oro revelando el wishful thinking. Rajan de Lagarde, empiezan a autoconvencerse de que los tipos no pueden durar así mucho tiempo, Lagarde vuelve a repetir que nada de aflojar hasta que la inflación se controle, chasco y cabreo, y vuelta a empezar. Con la hipoteca cada vez más cara y con cada vez menos oxígeno.

Con qué poquito nos conformamos (no tú, Benzino, en general) si celebramos que el Euríbor esté a nivel de tipos oficiales. Cuando esté a tipos + 0.5% o + 1% entonces sí, volveremos a la "normalidad".

Lo que no se es qué cabeza pensante en España se pudo meter en una hipoteca a más de 20 años a variable con los tipos al 0 

Al menos aquí en UK no tienes otra opción. Tienes fijo unos años (normalemente 2 ó 5) y luego refinancias. Esta semana el Libor está al 5.8. Por curiosidad me acabo de meter en la pagina de Lloyds a ver qué ofrecen. Hasta hace dos días tenían una sección con sus hipotecas y sus porcentajes bien visibles. Esas páginas hoy están "caidas por mantenimiento"  el resto de la página fuciona perfectamente, es sólo esa página.

https://www.lloydsbank.com/mortgages/mortgage-calculator.html?MT=FTB

En Zoopla no hago más que ver pisos de una habitación por más de medio millón de libras. Me pregunto a quién se los van a vender.. ¿a first time buyers? ¿con intereses de más del 6%? ¿A inversores buy-to-let? ¿a cuánto hay que alquilar el zulo para sacarle rendimiento?

El propio Lloyds ya ofrece más de un 4.5% por depósitos: https://www.lloydsbank.com/savings.html
Por ese medio millón te dan (antes de impuestos) más de £22,000. Sin preocuparte de gastos ni de inquilinos que no paguen.

[el malo]

https://www.ft.com/content/9940b3b2-1988-4658-95cb-fa312bd23185

UK households remortgaging in 2024 face £2,900 rise in annual payments

New estimate of rising cost of borrowing increases pressure on Rishi Sunak to help families

UK households that come to the end of fixed-rate mortgage deals next year face an average £2,900 increase in annual payments, putting Rishi Sunak under pressure to defuse an election-year time bomb.

The estimated increase in payments by the Resolution Foundation think-tank reflects concern that the UK has a worse inflation problem than other countries and that the Bank of England will need to raise interest rates to almost 6 per cent next year, when a general election is expected.

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey on Friday called for a targeted £3bn “mortgage protection fund” for people whose homes would otherwise be repossessed, in a sign of growing political heat on the issue.

But the prime minister and his chancellor Jeremy Hunt argue that such a move would be dangerous because it would fuel inflation.

Sunak said on Wednesday that the government’s “number one economic priority” was taming high inflation.

The political row comes after another week of mortgage rate increases by lenders, including NatWest, Nationwide and HSBC, in moves that followed poor official inflation data last month that prompted financial markets to increase their expectations of interest rate rises by the BoE.

“It is serious,” said one senior government figure. “That’s why we are fully focused on halving inflation by the end of the year. Inflation is the disease in the economy.”

The BoE is likely to raise interest rates from 4.5 per cent to 4.75 per cent when the Monetary Policy Committee meets on Thursday, although some economists think a larger increase is possible if there is another bad set of inflation figures on Wednesday.


(...)

acerca del artículo, tuit-comentario de un muy colorido hedge fund manager conocido por los lares anglo por haber estado en el lado de los ganadores de 2008. ha estado criticando las subidas de tipos y dice que solo hay cuatro personas en el mundo que comprendan como funciona el dinero:

Anyone read the front page of the Pink Times today ?

Totally insane...

It feels like a combination of the £ eviction from the euro exchange rate system a million years ago and all those  preposterous declarations to raise rates to infinity.

On 16 Sep 92 they raised rates from 10 to 12%. Market didn't budge. Kept selling Sterling. No way they could not crush the economy at 12% rates. The bluff was ignored

Feeling peeved, the raised again, later that day, to 15%, and that's when everyone knew the gig was really truly up

Soros and Stan yawned, yeah go immolate yourself, they sold more £

You see, threats have to be credible...

And 2006 till 2008 when mortgages had to reprice from teaser to reality

The BofE was really hopeless back then as well, they didn't cut rates, they spoke gibberish about being worried about inflation. The economy was set to implode

Their " huff and I'll puff  and I'll blow your house down" rhetoric is possibly worse now

Yeah, go and immolate yourself

Present expectation of terminal British rates are 6 %

This would imply an average hike in annual mortgage pyts of £2.9k

Its not gonna happen, its already a bloodbath

I got my ex family home over there and the landlord is calling time. He earns a 2.5% gross yield and his mortgage is way above that, and worse ? there's no bid

We are so close to Armageddon

Complete idiocy. Residential and commercial properties are set to reprice higher. Insolvencies are set to be legendary. And all because wage gains in sectors bereft of post Brexit vacancies are surging

Oh, and the price of sourdough is much higher

Inflation is a monetary phenomenon; someone please tell the B of E

Brace, Brace, Brace

https://twitter.com/hendry_hugh/status/1670114708844695552

Eso es lo que pasa cuando no exigen un examen antes de escribir en Twitter.

A lo primero, ¿cuál es el problema de que el landlord esté palmando pasta? ¿Desde cuándo eso es problema del inquilino? Su pisitófila cabecita mezclada con un síndrome de Estocolmo de proporciones épicas no entiende que en una inversión inmobiliaria se puede perder. Una mezcla de pánico e ira de la que nos hablaba asustadísimos.

A lo segundo, por alguna razón mágica, las propiedades van a "reprice higher" pero las insolvencias van a ser legendarias  igual es que las propiedades no pueden "reprice higher" porque no encuentran comprador ni siquiera a su precio actual.

Y la culpa del BoE, que no entiende de dinero 

[sudden and sharp]

Celebrar... lo que se dice celebrar... cuándo los jóvenes puedan emanciparse, motu propio, y a una edad razonable.





Hasta entonces... HODL.   

[tomasjos]

La mercherizacion terminal ha llegado. Miren y lloren

https://www.elespanol.com/invertia/disruptores-innovadores/disruptores/startups/20230619/comprar-habitaciones-metodo-inversion-propuesta-disruptiva-jovenes/770923018_0.html

[sudden and sharp]

La mercherizacion terminal ha llegado. Miren y lloren

https://www.elespanol.com/invertia/disruptores-innovadores/disruptores/startups/20230619/comprar-habitaciones-metodo-inversion-propuesta-disruptiva-jovenes/770923018_0.html

Ahí lasdao.

¡Qué vergüenza, señores!

[Vipamo]

La mercherizacion terminal ha llegado. Miren y lloren

https://www.elespanol.com/invertia/disruptores-innovadores/disruptores/startups/20230619/comprar-habitaciones-metodo-inversion-propuesta-disruptiva-jovenes/770923018_0.html

Eso es legal?

[Lem]

acerca del artículo, tuit-comentario de un muy colorido hedge fund manager conocido por los lares anglo por haber estado en el lado de los ganadores de 2008. ha estado criticando las subidas de tipos y dice que solo hay cuatro personas en el mundo que comprendan como funciona el dinero:

Anyone read the front page of the Pink Times today ?

Totally insane...

It feels like a combination of the £ eviction from the euro exchange rate system a million years ago and all those  preposterous declarations to raise rates to infinity.

On 16 Sep 92 they raised rates from 10 to 12%. Market didn't budge. Kept selling Sterling. No way they could not crush the economy at 12% rates. The bluff was ignored

Feeling peeved, the raised again, later that day, to 15%, and that's when everyone knew the gig was really truly up

Soros and Stan yawned, yeah go immolate yourself, they sold more £

You see, threats have to be credible...

And 2006 till 2008 when mortgages had to reprice from teaser to reality

The BofE was really hopeless back then as well, they didn't cut rates, they spoke gibberish about being worried about inflation. The economy was set to implode

Their " huff and I'll puff  and I'll blow your house down" rhetoric is possibly worse now

Yeah, go and immolate yourself

Present expectation of terminal British rates are 6 %

This would imply an average hike in annual mortgage pyts of £2.9k

Its not gonna happen, its already a bloodbath

I got my ex family home over there and the landlord is calling time. He earns a 2.5% gross yield and his mortgage is way above that, and worse ? there's no bid

We are so close to Armageddon

Complete idiocy. Residential and commercial properties are set to reprice higher. Insolvencies are set to be legendary. And all because wage gains in sectors bereft of post Brexit vacancies are surging

Oh, and the price of sourdough is much higher

Inflation is a monetary phenomenon; someone please tell the B of E

Brace, Brace, Brace

https://twitter.com/hendry_hugh/status/1670114708844695552

Eso es lo que pasa cuando no exigen un examen antes de escribir en Twitter.

A lo primero, ¿cuál es el problema de que el landlord esté palmando pasta? ¿Desde cuándo eso es problema del inquilino? Su pisitófila cabecita mezclada con un síndrome de Estocolmo de proporciones épicas no entiende que en una inversión inmobiliaria se puede perder. Una mezcla de pánico e ira de la que nos hablaba asustadísimos.

A lo segundo, por alguna razón mágica, las propiedades van a "reprice higher" pero las insolvencias van a ser legendarias  igual es que las propiedades no pueden "reprice higher" porque no encuentran comprador ni siquiera a su precio actual.

Y la culpa del BoE, que no entiende de dinero 

la verdad es que me resultó bastante chocante el tuit (de ahí que lo traiga) precisamente por que no esperaba comentarios tan, digamos, burdos. claro que tiene otras perlas, como "bubbles are fine, kind of sustainable, as long as there is not zero financing" (hay leña para el ECB y Trichet por subir los tipos en 2008) en esta entrevista durante la crisis de las Trussonomics:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxo24AbZqCk

[Negrule]

Que tostón, de aquí a un tiempo ya tendremos todos los mass media  con la habitaokupa. 

No se puede volver al año 2000, no? Lo primero que haría sería comprarme una vivienda, la de dolores de cabeza que me quitaba del medio y no estaría lo suficientemente bien pagado. Por dios que tostón con el monotema. Nunca me hubiera imaginado que el tema de la vivienda ocuparía tanto espacio en mi vida, nunca.

Salut

[Lem]

La mercherizacion terminal ha llegado. Miren y lloren

https://www.elespanol.com/invertia/disruptores-innovadores/disruptores/startups/20230619/comprar-habitaciones-metodo-inversion-propuesta-disruptiva-jovenes/770923018_0.html

el video original pasó por aquí gracias a Cadavre. viendo que tras el engañoso nombre de "SeedRocket" hay una "aceleradora" de mierda española (con Encinar entre los mentores) no sorprende que hayan ganado su promoción o como le llamen. "doce horas de dura reunión" para lanzarse con la idea dicen. para mear y no echar gota.

[sudden and sharp]

Para bella... la patá nel culo.




Puñales en el Vaticano: el Papa envía a Alemania al todopoderoso aliado de Benedicto XVI
https://www.elconfidencial.com/mundo/2023-06-19/punales-en-el-vaticano-el-papa-envia-a-alemania-al-ex-todopoderoso-secretario-de-benedicto-xvi_3667919/
El exsecretario de Benedicto XVI, Georg Gänswein, lleva tres meses relegado de su cargo y regresará a su diócesis en Friburgo, sin ningún encargo específico a pesar de ser arzobispo







----
Otro teutón mandón... supongo.       [ Ve tomando nota, Asdrubal...  ]

[sudden and sharp]

El Banco de España constata una aceleración económica y sube al 2,3% su previsión del PIB
https://www.elconfidencial.com/economia/2023-06-19/banco-de-espana-aceleracion-economica-sube-2-3-prevision_3668324/
Calcula que el PIB habrá crecido un 0,6% en el segundo trimestre, una décima más que el primero, pero percibe señales de debilidad en los últimos días de mayo y el inicio de junio




Igual no les hace gracia a los carolingios... bueno... y digo yo: ¿A quién conyo le importa lo que opinen estos?




-------
[ Asdrubal... ya sabes. ]

[sudden and sharp]

Juan José López Burniol: "Es preferible una Cataluña independiente que confederal con España"
https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2023-06-19/punto-ciego-lopez-burniol-cataluna_3667227/
¿Las relaciones de Cataluña con el resto de España tienen arreglo? ¿Son un problema imposible de encajar? ¿Cuál debe ser el encaje político y social de la comunidad con el resto del Estado?






[ Asdru... ¡Otra de gambas!     ]

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-19/sweden-s-property-crunch-worsens-as-another-landlord-cut-to-junk

Sweden’s Property Crunch Worsens as Another Firm Cut to Junk

FastPartner down to Ba1, ratings may be cut further at Moody’s
Follows similiar moves for SBB, Balder and Finland’s Citycon

Sweden’s beleaguered property sector suffered another blow when one of the largest office landlords in the capital was downgraded to junk status by Moody’s Investors Service.

Stockholm-based FastPartner AB saw its rating cut one step to Ba1 with the possibility for further downgrades to come if the company cannot shore up its finances. The cut “reflects the rapid increase in interest rates combined with subsequently challenging capital markets,” Moody’s said in a statement late on Friday night. (...)