Re: Tema: PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Primavera 2023

[Benzino Napaloni]

El problema es que viven en digamos, el gran París, unos 30 millones de personas, la mitad de Francia...

La solución allí, es descentralizar de verdad..., promover de verdad otras ciudades... CC. AA.






Si aquí tenemos los problemas que tenemos con Mierdrid y las España vaciaditas y quejumbrosas haced un cálculo allá...

Es su problema. Pensemos qué nos conviene a nosotros aquí, que ya Barna, ya Madrid son un tanto excesivas.

https://es.ara.cat/sociedad/escuela-barcelona-cierra-manera-inesperada-deja-300-alumnos-calle-hundidos_1_4406257.html
https://www.elperiodico.com/es/barcelona/20230201/cierre-escuela-centenaria-barcelona-sants-82286325

Pues como en los incendios forestales -los no provocados-. Como el monte no se cuida como antes, la naturaleza sigue su curso.

La vida en las ciudades es un asunto complejo pero que está provocando desde hace décadas en todo Occidente un brutal invierno demográfico. Se trata de que si no se interviene ya, dentro de no muchos años no habrá movilidad que gestionar. Ni falta de vivienda, ni muchas otras cosas. Será al revés, falta de personas para mantener viva la ciudad y la sociedad.

Pero a ver quién le pone el cascabel al gato. Quién se carga años de patadas hacia adelante para que las parejas se vuelvan a animar a tener hijos. Es mucho más que el "artefacto" como dice CHOSEN, aunque es su síntoma más visible.


Soluciones hay... pero implica decir a los de la generación Tapón que se acabó el chollo. Conociéndonos, se esperará al último minuto, o más bien hasta cuando ya será tarde.

[Zugzwang]

Si la principal razón de concentrar ha sido extraer cualquier renta del trabajo via pisito llevando todos los puestos de trabajo posibles a las grandes ciudades, con la capitulación del banano sería lógico pensar que se producirá una desconcentración de población a las provincias, al menos en un porcentaje generoso.

A veces me pregunto por qué no para de construirse vivienda nueva en Albacete si apenas hay puestos de trabajo y sobra vivienda por todos lados, nueva, de segunda mano y con el envejecimiento de la ciudad, habrá un disparate de herencias con pisitos en el pack. Lo mismo es que sí tienen prevista esa desconcentración de las grandes ciudades y se han puesto manos a la obra para que cuando pase, no les pille el toro.

Pero sí, concentrar población en la gran ciudad será muy beneficioso económicamente, pero en cuanto a la gestión de recursos, la movilidad y la convivencia, es un desastre. La demografía es solamente un problema añadido. 

[asustadísimos]

[¿No está todo a 15 minutos en Seseña? Desde luego, en Auschwitz lo estaba. | ¿Qué significa todo en la frase todo a 15 minutos? ¿Incluye el horno crematorio o se trata del Todo a 100? | Dicen que estos pseudofalansterios 'alla Soluszowa', aparte de longitudinales, son transversales para las clases media y alta. ¿Entonces, la clase baja, y sus cápuslas de enchufe Matrix y salas de suicidio 'Soylent Green' quedan fuera de mis 15 minutos? | Es mentira que las rentas de alquiler puedan mutar en propiedad. Cosas como la opción de compra y el derecho de superficie vienen del Derecho Romano. Otra cosa es que, 'paquepiques' te ofrezcan fórmulas que parecen exóticas para facilitar que te decidas a separarte de tu dinero, eso sí, jamás financiadas por el propio usurero, sino por la banca garantizada por el fisco, o sea, por ti, contribuyente; el promotor, solo un intermediario acuciado por el cierre de grifo que sufre por parte del sistema. | Mucha ideíta de pocero (construir donde es barato y presentarlo como de 'alto standing') vemos en el urbanismo tardopopularcapitalista de mismacestahuevones y comemierdas. Se inventan centros nuevos, sí, claro, porque lo reburbujeado son, precisamente, los centros. Pero se los pueden meter por donde les quepan. | Desde luego, en esos 'tus' a 15 minutos del chabolo, jamás verás a la bailarina y cantante Clare Turton Derrico...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TTfYnRQgKgY
... por mucho 'hustle' o 'nitty gritty' que se te ocurra hacer con tu pareja —sin hijos— en tus metrillos cuadrados con vistas a parterres cuya limpiadora y jardinero tendrán que ser financiados por ti, si es que quieres que acudan a servirte desde el extrarradio:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O0zTY0y8VQ0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8S3Yt-NxY0E ]

[¿Los edificios multiuso no eran de Le Corbusier? Dado que en las segundas plantas van las peluquerías, en las terceras podemos poner las casas-cuartel.]

[AbiertoPorDemolicion]

https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/5110805/0/madrid-nuevo-norte-tendra-el-rascacielos-mas-grande-de-europa-occidental-y-de-espana/
Madrid Nuevo Norte tendrá el rascacielos más alto de España... y de Europa

Lo flipais. Ni movilidad, ni teletrabajo, ni quince minutos, ni patinetes, ni unicornios voladores.

(con estas noticias triunfalistas, lo que están haciendo es avisar a la gente para que cada uno, en la medida de sus posibilidades, se posicione en el núcleo duro del capitalismo popular: la propiedad entorno a los núcleos de creación de sueldos)

[neutron_mortgages]

Juan, guardia civil en Ibiza: «Duermo en una furgoneta y me ducho en el gimnasio»

https://www.abc.es/espana/juan-guardia-civil-ibiza-duermo-furgoneta-ducho-20230401165145-nt_amp.html

No se si estas cosas se “normalizarán” o son los síntomas de que se ha ido demasiado lejos.

[asustadísimos]

[Aviso de edición del comentario de los 15 minutos:
https://www.transicionestructural.net/index.php?topic=2589.msg213029#msg213029
En efecto, las unidades habitacionales ('Unité d'Habitation'), de Le Corbusier, en Marsella iban a ser ciudades jardín vertical para vivir, hacer las compras, hacerte la pedicura, ponerte una inyección y jugar, todo en uno. El pobre Sainz de Oiza medio lo intentó con los gitanos en la M-30 madrileña, pero no le salió un huevo, sino una castaña.
https://arquitecturaviva.com/assets/uploads/obras/52206/av_medium__av_209480.jpeg?h=791b5abb
Un servidor conoció y viajó con Sainz de Oiza, con el que intimó bastante, y que le dedicó un plano.]

[Soluszowa.— Lo mejor es verlo en Earth:
https://earth.google.com/web/@50.2674103,19.7330258,11230.43502931a,0d,35y,-0h,0t,0r?utm_source=earth7 ]

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/ac09d4d1-97aa-4fcb-ba6c-e8e491452cdf

Blackstone hit with $4.5bn in redemption requests at property fund in March

Blackstone received $4.5bn worth of redemption requests from investors in its Breit real estate fund in March, but paid out just $666mn of the total, as the firm maintains restrictions on withdrawals from the investment vehicle geared towards wealthy individuals.

Withdrawal requests from the fund have slowed by 16 per cent since the January peak, the firm said in a letter to investors on Monday. Blackstone has previously said that it faced a spate of redemption requests from investors in Asia who needed to raise cash to meet margin calls.

But withdrawal requests have picked up a little since February, when investors sought to pull $3.9bn from the fund. Since then, US financial markets have been roiled by three bank failures, raising concerns about the financial footing of some commercial real estate developers.

Breit typically offers to repurchase a limited number of Breit shares each month. But the fund is not obliged to honour redemption requests immediately, a feature designed to avoid forced sales of real estate when prices are low.

[sudden and sharp]

 




 




 

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/dc0216b3-3812-439a-ae8b-aeef5c1b8f55

European Central Bank calls for clampdown on commercial property funds

Officials warn downturn in €1tn sector could trigger liquidity crisis if investors rush to withdraw money

The European Central Bank has called for a clampdown on commercial property funds to tackle the risk that a downturn in the €1tn sector could trigger a liquidity crisis if investors rushed to withdraw their money.

The ECB’s proposals reflect concern among regulators and investors that the recent turmoil in the banking industry could exacerbate strains in the commercial property market and push the sector closer to crisis.

Funds that invest in illiquid property assets and allow investors to pull out their money at short notice are exposed to a “liquidity mismatch” that could force them into “fire sales”, ECB officials warned in a macroprudential bulletin on Monday.

“Policies should be developed to address the structural vulnerabilities” of such open-ended property funds, the officials said, “given the risks they pose to commercial real estate markets and wider financial stability”.

Tighter rules would allow the funds to “manage spikes in liquidity demands and to internalise the cost of redemptions which can arise during market stress”, they said, adding that without sufficient liquidity management tools, property funds could “have to resort to asset fire sales, thus amplifying market stress”.

Measures proposed by the ECB include reducing the frequency at which investors can withdraw their money, requiring them to give longer notice and introducing longer minimum holding periods.

Calling for consistent application of rules on property funds across the 20-country eurozone, the ECB said they should also charge fees on investor redemptions and impose “gates” to limit further outflows.

“On the assets side, a policy of increasing the share of liquid assets held could be explored, as it would reduce the liquidity mismatch,” the officials said, adding that these measures would make the sector better able to cope with a period of market stress.



The net asset value of real estate investment funds has more than trebled in a decade, rising from €323bn in the fourth quarter of 2012 to €1.04tn in the fourth quarter of last year, the ECB said. The funds, of which about 80 per cent are open-ended, now account for 40 per cent of eurozone commercial property markets.

But it said the commercial property market was exhibiting “clear signs of vulnerability” which included “declining market liquidity and price corrections, driven largely by uncertainty in the macro-financial outlook and by monetary tightening”.

The report comes after the MSCI Europe Real Estate index of large and mid-cap property companies tumbled 14 per cent in March to close to its lowest level since early 2009.

The ECB cited how Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust had recently limited investor redemptions after a surge in requests to withdraw money out of its $125bn fund. It also gave the example of how UK property funds had imposed “gates” to limit outflows triggered by the sell-off in gilt markets that followed last year’s “mini” Budget.

The number of transactions in the eurozone commercial property sector fell 44 per cent year on year in the final three months of last year, the report said. Prices of prime office properties in the bloc fell 14 per cent in the second and third quarters of 2022 compared with the previous year.

The ECB said the use of debt in property funds would magnify losses for investors during a downturn and increase contagion risks of any crisis to the banking system.

The Financial Stability Board, which brings together top policymakers, said in December there had been “no measurable reduction in the degree of structural liquidity mismatch” since it issued recommendations for open-ended funds in 2017.

[sudden and sharp]

 

[Derby]

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/04/02/the-rich-worlds-housing-crunch-is-far-from-over

The rich world’s housing crunch is far from over

Markets can be split into three camps: early adjusters, bullet-dodgers and slow movers

At times during the long boom that followed the global financial crisis of 2007-09, it seemed as if house prices would never stop rising. Sales surged as a cocktail of ultra-low interest rates and supply shortages boosted competition for properties. Things are very different today. In countries across the rich world, from America to New Zealand, sales have cratered over the past year, as central banks have embarked on the sharpest monetary-policy tightening cycle in four decades. In almost all major markets prices are now heading in the wrong direction, too, at least from the perspective of homeowners.

Yet with the bulk of central banks’ rate rises behind them, many in the property industry are beginning to wonder if the worst may soon be over. In March both America’s Federal Reserve and the Bank of England raised benchmark rates by a mere quarter of a percentage point. Markets are pricing in at most one more rise from each. The world economy has so far proved resilient to the stress of tighter policy, even as a handful of commercial banks have gone to the wall. This has given investors and many homeowners hope that prices may soon be reaching a trough. Perhaps the long-feared housing crunch will turn out to be less terrible than expected.

Such optimism will probably prove unwarranted. Just as rate rises took time to hit property markets, so any relief will come with a delay. Cushions that have thus far softened the blow are starting to look threadbare. Although fixed-rate mortgages, which protect holders from increased borrowing costs, are more common outside America than used to be the case, most are fixed for relatively short periods. In Britain, for instance, nearly half the fixed-rate stock is fixed for no more than two years—more than two-fifths of mortgage-holders will move to new terms this year. Meanwhile, piles of excess savings built up in the pandemic no longer provide as much protection, having been drawn down in the years since. Surveys suggest lower-income households in the euro zone have largely exhausted their buffers.

When assessing how far prices have left to fall, the rich world can be divided into three camps. Start with the early adjusters, which include Australia, Canada, New Zealand and Sweden. In many of these countries, central bankers were quick to respond to inflation. They saw house prices soar in the pandemic, as buyers gorged on cheap credit, taking out mortgages mostly on variable-rate terms. According to the oecd, a rich-country club, prices have dropped by 14% in Sweden and New Zealand since peaking. In Australia they have fallen by 9%. The country’s central bank did not raise rates until May, but households entered the period with lots of debt, which sat at an average of more than 200% of net disposable income in 2021, making them more exposed to higher interest costs. Goldman Sachs, a bank, forecasts eventual drops, relative to peaks, of 19% in New Zealand, 17% in Sweden and 15% in Australia, suggesting a bit more pain is still to come in these countries.

Next are the bullet-dodgers. The most prominent member of this camp is America, where homeowners are largely insulated from aggressive tightening by fixed-rate mortgages, which often last for two or three decades. After the subprime-lending crisis starting in 2007, regulators pushed borrowers in the direction of such loans, which are less likely to experience mass defaults and thus blow up the financial system. According to Goldman, America has already seen half of its predicted peak-to-trough drop of just 5%. Meanwhile, France, where prices held up in 2022, is predicted to experience an even more paltry drop of 4%. The country benefits from low household debt, which sat at an average of just 124% of net disposable income in 2021.

Then there are the slow movers, which have not yet been hit hard, but which are unlikely to escape the pain. Although house prices in Britain have already fallen by 5%, worse may be to come: Capital Economics, a consultancy, forecasts a 12% peak-to-trough drop. The country’s homebuilders are sounding the alarm. Many are holding off on developing new homes; some are dangling cash to incentivise buyers. Persimmon, Britain’s second-biggest builder, even offered to pay mortgages for up to ten months, in an attempt to prop up demand. It is a similar situation in other parts of Europe. The German Property Federation, an industry group, predicts that just 245,000 apartments will be finished in Germany this year, falling well short of the government’s target of 400,000.

Since slumping prices across the rich world have been driven in large part by higher interest rates, they are unlikely to make housing more affordable. Those who want to get on the property ladder face eye-watering monthly payments. In Canada, one of the early adjusters, the average buyer of a detached home now needs to spend nearly 70% of their pre-tax household income on mortgage payments, property taxes and utility bills, according to the Royal Bank of Canada, up from 46% at the start of 2020. Falling prices will always make homeowners unhappy. This time around even would-be buyers have little to cheer.

[Cadavre Exquis]

Google To Cut Down on Employee Laptops, Services and Staplers for 'Multi-Year' Savings
Posted by msmash on Monday April 03, 2023 @01:23PM from the closer-look dept.

Google's finance chief Ruth Porat recently said in a rare companywide email that the company is making cuts to employee services. From a report:

"These are big, multi-year efforts," Porat said in a Friday email titled: "Our company-wide OKR on durable savings." Elements of the email were previously reported by the Wall Street Journal. In separate documents viewed by CNBC, Google said it's cutting back on fitness classes, staplers, tape, and the frequency of laptop replacements for employees. One of the company's important objectives for 2023 is to "deliver durable savings through improved velocity and efficiency." Porat said in the email. "All PAs and Functions are working toward this," she said, referring to product areas.

Saludos.

[Derby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-03/ecb-half-point-hike-still-on-the-cards-for-may-holzmann-says

ECB Half-Point Hike ‘Still on Cards’ for May, Holzmann Says

European Central Bank Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said another half-point increase in borrowing costs is “still on the cards” if the turmoil that’s rocked the global banking system doesn’t worsen.

While acknowledging that the episode, sparked by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, could have a comparable effect to interest-rates hikes by curbing credit, Holzmann said his “feeling would be to stay on course.”(...)

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/expansion-nacional/20230403/page/46/textview

Las 'proptech' llegan a la etapa de madurez

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/companias/2023-04-03/las-primeras-de-las-22000-viviendas-de-los-berrocales-salen-a-la-venta.html

Saludos.