Re: Tema: PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Primavera 2023

[Derby]

https://www.vozpopuli.com/economia_y_finanzas/rentabilidad-alquiler-cae-nivel-bono-espanol-calor-ley-vivienda.html

La rentabilidad del alquiler cae al nivel del bono español al calor de la Ley de Vivienda

Los retornos por la mera compra de deuda pública se acercan a los de invertir en vivienda para alquiler ante las nuevas restricciones, que amenazan con retraer la oferta

La rentabilidad bruta de alquilar una vivienda ha caído hasta el 3,4% al cierre del último trimestre, según se desprende de los últimos datos al efecto del Banco de España. En el último año, el filón de los arrendamientos residenciales ha retrocedido un 8%, atendiendo a la misma fuente.

Una pérdida de negocio que cobra cierta relevancia cuando se constata que la principal competencia del alquiler de vivienda por la seguridad de sus retornos se ha revalorizado el último año: la deuda pública. La rentabilidad del bono español a diez años cerró el último trimestre también en el 3,4%, por el 1,5% que ofrecía hace un año y el 0,1% con el que había cerrado el 2021.

De este modo, destinar una vivienda a alquilarla es, en promedio, igual de rentable que el bono más seguro, el estatal. En sectores financieros se interpreta como una amenaza a la generación de nueva oferta de pisos en alquiler -y más aún, de arrendamientos asequibles- y su redirección hacia la venta. Y es que la inversión para alquiler no tenía semejante competencia desde el año 2013, justo cuando los fondos de inversión internacionales empezaron a ver atractivo en invertir en el mercado del residencial para arrendamiento.

"El diferencial de rentabilidades es prácticamente inexistente en estos momentos", apuntan desde el departamento de estudios de Bankinter, incidiendo en que "el fuerte repunte de TIR del bono español a 10 años resta atractivo a la inversión en vivienda para alquiler". "Además, la nueva Ley de Vivienda limitará el incremento de los alquileres al 2% este año y 3% en 2024 y fijará una nueva referencia distinta al IPC para las revisiones a futuro", añade el experto inmobiliario del banco, Juan Moreno.

Desde 2025 en adelante, las actualizaciones se ligarían a un índice todavía no desarrollado. En cualquier caso, la nueva referencia podría acabar siendo "similar" al mismo IPC, según han apuntado fuentes ministeriales del ala socialista, cuya intención sigue siendo paralelamente la de no regular los alquileres turísticos para no invadir competencias autonómicas.(...)

[Derby]

La Fed sube 0,25%

https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1653821779356311552

@financialjuice ⚠️ BREAKING: US INTEREST RATE DECISION ACTUAL 5.25% (FORECAST 5.25%, PREVIOUS 5%) $MACRO

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/57982ca5-c5da-4154-8524-e7ef7987d028

Is ‘greedflation’ on its way out?

Probably not but apparently you’re more likely to click if the headline is a question

Alphaville loves a good “greedflation” chart, as our readers know.

The US’s latest bout of inflation has been caused by ahem, coincided with a steep increase in profit margins of S&P 500 companies. It has not coincided with a sharp rise in the unit cost of labour, which has climbed but not nearly as fast, as TS Lombard writes Wednesday:

Unlike in previous episodes, when rising inflation meant rising wages and shrinking profits, margins have benefited from inflation over the past two years. Wages have risen in nominal terms, but profits have risen even more amid falling real labour costs.

That’s shown in this handy chart, with both profits and wages normalised to 1995:



For years, persistently high profit margins have been raising questions about the sustainability of capitalism itself. For about six years, in fact. The basic argument — including from capital-markets stalwarts like Goldman Sachs — is this: the concentration of pricing power and resources among S&P 500 companies makes it easier for them to wring out profits in good and bad times, and those profits often come at the expense of individuals’ incomes and living standards.

The post-pandemic inflation has been a helpful demonstration of this dynamic, as economist Isabella Weber argued in a standout paper earlier this year.

Now TS Lombard strategists are arguing that trend is changing, in an argument that should be encouraging for households and . . . perhaps less so for S&P 500 companies. Profit margins have in fact fallen back to pre-pandemic averages. The strategists believe the margin contraction will continue:

The next phase of margin contraction will be more painful. All of this is probably coming to an end now. With inflation rolling over fast, companies will struggle to persuade their customers to pay more. And with saving stocks close to being depleted and the post-Covid reopening impulse having faded, consumers have already started pushing back on higher prices. Moreover, as producer and consumer prices have fallen sharply, labour costs have remained resilient, as high inflation feeds in with a lag: they are now higher than producer prices and headline CPI (see chart below left).

It is worth noting that lower earners — who have the largest propensity to consume — are the ones enjoying the fastest wage growth. Though not our base case, it is worth considering that this development could trigger another wave of inflation. However, what seems more likely is that we are returning to the “normal” inflation described above. Corporate margins have already been declining for more than a year, but they have done so from record-high levels, making the process relatively painless. The next phase will be different.

It will be interesting to see whether this can happen without a change in the concentration of corporate power, since that helped fuel the initial spiral in prices.

After all, if there are only a few companies selling goods in a popular market, they don’t need to try very hard to attract buyers.

[Derby]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-likely-hike-rates-hint-pause-tightening-cycle-2023-05-03/

Fed delivers small rate hike, flags possible pause in tightening cycle

WASHINGTON, May 3 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point and signaled it may pause further increases, giving officials time to assess the fallout from recent bank failures, wait on the resolution of a political standoff over the U.S. debt ceiling, and monitor the course of inflation.

The unanimous decision lifted the U.S. central bank's benchmark overnight interest rate to the 5.00%-5.25% range, the Fed's tenth consecutive increase since March 2022.

But the accompanying policy statement dropped language saying that its rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee still "anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2% over time."

In its place the Fed inserted a more qualified statement, reminiscent of language used when it halted rate hikes in 2006, which says that "in determining the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate," officials will study how the economy, inflation and financial markets behave in the coming weeks and months.

The new language does not guarantee the Fed will hold rates steady at its next policy meeting in June, and the statement noted that "inflation remains elevated," and job gains are still "running at a robust pace."

But the Fed's policy rate is now roughly the same as it was on the eve of a destabilizing financial crisis 16 years ago, and is at the level which a majority of Fed officials projected in March would in fact be "sufficiently restrictive" to return inflation to target. It is currently still more than twice that level.

Economic growth remains modest, but "recent developments are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses and to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation," the Fed said.

Risks around the recent failures of several U.S. banks and a debt limit standoff between Republicans in Congress and Democratic President Joe Biden have added to the Fed's sense of caution about trying to tighten financial conditions further.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. EDT (1830 GMT) to elaborate on the outcome of the latest two-day policy meeting.

[Derby]

https://www.cityam.com/london-house-prices-first-time-buyers-need-household-income-of-nearly-100k-to-buy/

London house prices: First-time buyers need household income of nearly £100k to buy

Londoners’ desire to get on the property ladder has helped fuel the housing market in the capital, despite households now needing an extra £12k in income to be able to afford their own place.

Figures released by Zoopla, show that in April house price growth in London rose by 0.5 per cent, as demand and market activity in the capital continued to outperform other Southern regions in the UK.

However, the average household income in London required to buy a two-bed home is now £97k up from £91k in 2020, and a three-bed home is £115k up from £103k almost three years ago.

“Demand and market activity in the London sales market is doing better than in other regions across Southern England. This is because house prices have lagged behind the rest of the market since 2016,” Richard Donnell, executive director at Zoopla said. (...)

[AbiertoPorDemolicion]

Yo esto de la desdolarizacion no la veo ten fácil de implementar como lo están contando. Puede tener más inconvenientes que ventajas.

Lo cuento con marionetas.

La República de chikitistan y el reino de españistan acuerdan hacer sus intercambios comerciales en sus monedas nacionales. Chiquitistan produce coches y españistan cosechas de trigo. Chiquitistan vende  su producción de coches a españistan, y este se lo paga con un millón de mortadelos, con la idea de que al año siguiente, españistan le cambie esos mortadelos por su cosecha de trigo.
Pasa el año, y cuando los de chikitistan le pide a los de españistan la cosecha de trigo, estos ya se la han zampado y no tienen más en su economía que ofrecerles. Los de chikitistan se comen los mortadelos con patatas.

Lo que quiero decir con esto es que la desdolarizacion complica mucho el comercio internacional. Obliga a los países a estar pendiente de la evolución de la economía de todos los países con los que comercia, para no terminar comiéndose los mortadelos con patatas.

El dólar se puede intercambiar por cualquier producto en cualquier parte del mundo.  Te da igual que los de españistan sean unos bandarras que se van a zampar sus cosechas antes de que tu las necesites. Si te han pagado en dolares, puedes comprar el trigo que vas a necesitar en cualquier parte del mundo.

Veremos los problemas y las guerras que va a provocar este invento del comercio internacional en monedas nacionales, porque cuando los países empiecen a comerse los mortadelos de los españistanies, veremos a ver como se lo toman.

[Derby]

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/05/fomc-statement-raise-rates-25-bp-pause.html

FOMC Statement: Raise Rates 25 bp; Pause in June Likely

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T-hWy7EMfzo min. 56:30), starting at 2:30 PM ET.

FOMC Statement:

Economic activity expanded at a modest pace in the first quarter. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated.

The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 5 to 5-1/4 percent. The Committee will closely monitor incoming information and assess the implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Patrick Harker; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; and Christopher J. Waller.

[sudden and sharp]

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[ El Astronaut Day es el viernes 5. ]

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/expansion-nacional/20230503/page/2/textview

La contratación de hipotecas se resiente

https://www.expansion.com/empresas/banca/2023/05/03/6451715fe5fdea293a8b4629.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/fiscal/2023/05/03/6451595c468aeb4c048b45c8.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/companias/2023-05-03/el-alza-de-tipos-de-interes-atrapa-a-la-banca-con-32900-millones-en-creditos-dudosos-ligados-al-ladrillo.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://cincodias.elpais.com/opinion/2023-05-03/una-vivienda-turistica-racionalmente-regulada.html

https://cincodias.elpais.com/opinion/2023-05-03/la-revolucion-de-las-tareas-intelectuales-y-las-cartas-expuestas-de-ceoe.html

https://cincodias.elpais.com/economia/2023-05-02/viena-la-estrella-indiscutible-del-mercado-europeo-del-alquiler.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/economia/financial-times/2023/05/02/64515a90468aeb9c128b462f.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.expansion.com/empresas/banca/2023/05/03/645197afe5fdea65718b4626.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/expansion-nacional/20230503/page/27/textview

La inflación rebota al 7% en la zona euro, con los alimentos aún disparados

https://cincodias.elpais.com/economia/2023-05-03/la-inflacion-dispara-el-gasto-de-los-hogares-sujeto-a-iva-hasta-el-record-del-medio-billon-de-euros.html

Saludos.