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Autor Tema: Re: Tema: PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Primavera 2023  (Leído 465305 veces)

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Re: Tema: PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Primavera 2023
« Respuesta #2542 en: Junio 03, 2023, 09:53:04 am »
Cuando las expectativas siguen centradas en el pasado es realmente problemático.

https://www.vozpopuli.com/economia_y_finanzas/banca-aguarda-23-j-hipotecas.html

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La banca aguarda al 23-J para reanimar la concesión de hipotecas

Las elecciones anticipadas alivian al sector, que afrontaba con tensión la revisión del pacto hipotecario por la presión de Yolanda Díaz y Podemos
*Fiasco del pacto hipotecario: el Gobierno ampliará las ayudas por la subida de tipos
*La banca teme que Sánchez rescate medidas populistas antes de las elecciones


Tras años en el disparadero del Gobierno, los banqueros respiran con las elecciones anticipadas. Las entidades aguardan al resultado del 23J y se considera que una hipotética victoria del PP, que ha salido claro vencedor de los comicios municipales y autonómicos, generaría certidumbre para reanimar la concesión de hipotecas, según fuentes financieras consultadas por Vozpópuli.

Antes de la convocatoria de elecciones, el Ejecutivo preparaba una mejora del fallido pacto hipotecario ante la presión de las subidas de tipos del Banco Central Europeo (BCE), que ha llevado el precio del dinero al 3,75% en menos de un año tras siete alzas consecutivas. Un ciclo de aumentos históricos en los 25 años de la institución, pero que parece no haber tocado techo. Luis de Guindos, vicepresidente del Eurobanco, apuntó a otra subida de 0,25 puntos porcentuales en la reunión del 15 de junio. "Será la nueva norma", apuntó el vicepresidente del BCE.

Con esta hoja de ruta, los bancos consideran que el 'fantasma' de Podemos y de Yolanda Díaz, vicepresidenta segunda, se aleja para ampliar las ayudas a los hipotecados en dificultades. El ala dura del Ejecutivo ya presionó hasta el último momento para que se pudieran acoger al pacto las familias con rentas de más de 29.400 euros.

Sin ir más lejos, Nadia Calviño, la vicepresidenta económica, forzó un acuerdo precipitado con los bancos para contener las aspiraciones de Díaz, como publicó este medio. Se anunció pasadas las 23 horas del 22 de noviembre sin cerrar algunos detalles "técnicos", como advirtieron los banqueros al día siguiente. Pero el Gobierno finalmente promovió un cambio contable para que las medidas no exigieran a las entidades provisiones cuantiosas por las extensiones de plazos y moratorias.

La salida de Podemos, un aliciente

"Si Podemos sale del Gobierno, será sin duda un aliciente para dar hipotecas a las clases medias y familias con menos rentas", garantiza un alto directivo de uno de los grandes bancos hipotecarios del país que pide el anonimato. "El PP tiende a ser más favorable al mercado que el PSOE, y nosotros vemos una alta probabilidad de que se cancele el impuesto bancario si hay un cambio en el gobierno", añadía Alantra en un informe a sus clientes tras el 28M.

Con el euribor en pleno rally, cerca del 4%, tanto los banqueros como el Banco de España y el BCE vaticinan que el crédito en general se restringirá y será más caro. Aunque las entidades quieren hacer excepciones para captar clientes a través de las hipotecas, que son el producto de entrada para contratar más y de más larga vinculación, como señalan fuentes próximas a los bancos. Por este motivo, se prepara una guerra de precios en hipotecas antes que empezar a remunerar los depósitos.

Las nuevas hipotecas se conceden a un tipo medio del 3,54%, según los últimos datos disponibles del Banco de España, correspondientes a marzo. Es un nivel sin precedentes desde marzo de 2012, justo antes de que las dudas de los inversores desencadenarán en el rescate financiero de España. Las estadísticas del Banco de España toman como referencia el tipo TEDR, equivalante a la TAE, pero sin tener en cuenta las comisiones.

Descalabro de las hipotecas este año

Con este elevado coste y la ausencia de demanda solvente, las entidades descuentan que este año cerrará con un descalabro en este segmento de negocio clave. CaixaBank y BBVA, dos de los grandes bancos hipotecarios del país, prevén que la concesión de hipotecas se desplome hasta un 35% al cierre de 2023 sobre todo por las subidas de los tipos de interés en Europa, que también están impulsando las amortizaciones anticipadas de los hipotecados.

En algunas entidades se reconoce, de hecho, que la formalización de este tipo de créditos ya cae a un ritmo del 25%, como indican fuentes próximas a uno de los grandes bancos hipotecarios.
“Everything can be taken from a man but one thing: the last of the human freedoms — to choose one’s attitude in any given set of circumstances, to choose one’s own way.”— Viktor E. Frankl
https://www.hks.harvard.edu/more/policycast/happiness-age-grievance-and-fear

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Re: Tema: PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Primavera 2023
« Respuesta #2543 en: Junio 03, 2023, 10:31:14 am »
[...] Lo que me sorprende es que asustadísimos diga que no hay inflación  ???
¿Entonces a que vienen estos titulares?:

- Las pensiones contributivas suben un 8,5%. Las no contributivas de jubilación e invalidez y la prestación del Ingreso Mínimo Vital se incrementan, de forma extraordinaria, un 15%.

- El plan de aumento de salarios de los funcionarios, aprobado por el Gobierno, culminará en el año 2024 con una subida de casi un 10%.

- El salario mínimo sube un 8% en 2023, esto supone que se situará en los 1.080 euros al mes.

O la hay, o no la hay.
Lo que no puede ser es que el gobierno "sepa" que no la hay, y actúe como que si la hay.
Porque entonces yo sospecho que está apuntalando el artefacto indirectamente, haciendo todo lo posible para que no se haga necesario liquidar (transmisión para obtener liquidez). Repito que aquñi solamente los herederos van a necesitar liquidez.
Eso es hacer un pan como unas tortas.


PD:
- El diputado Pedro Sánchez fue consejero de la Asamblea General de Caja Madrid en la época de Miguel Blesa, entre 2004 y 2009.

Esta es buena... claro que lo sabe. (Y que la población, su número, es falsa. Toda cifra es un arma ya, en esta guerra.)





------
Esa es la gracia del asunto.





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Re: Tema: PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Primavera 2023
« Respuesta #2544 en: Junio 03, 2023, 10:45:02 am »
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-02/madrid-luxury-property-prices-soar-as-rich-latin-americans-flood-market

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Rich Latin Americans Transform Laid-Back Madrid Into a New Miami

Luxury property prices are soaring in the Spanish capital and its high-dining scene is abuzz with activity.


The Salamanca district of Madrid on May 27.

When apartments in a luxury building on Calle Padilla in Madrid’s chic Salamanca district were put on the market a few months ago, more than half of them were snapped up by wealthy Mexicans.

The project, with 25 units each priced at as much as €3 million ($3.25 million), is being bankrolled primarily by Mexican investors and stands as a symbol of the increasingly visible presence of the Latin American nation’s citizens in the Spanish capital.

Since 2020, Mexicans have spent more than €700 million in Spanish real estate and construction, according to government foreign direct investment data. Like other well-heeled Latin Americans, they are investing in the city, buying second or third homes and parking their savings.


A residential building under renovation opposite the Robuchon Madrid restaurant in the Spanish capital’s Salamanca district, on May 27.

“Madrid has become the new Miami,” said Jose Manuel Ortega, a former investment banker who now advises foreigners on Spanish real estate and private banking.

Left-leaning governments in major Latin American nations have sent capital fleeing, with the region’s five largest economies seeing about $137 billion take flight in 2022, 41% higher than in 2021 and the most since 2010, according to preliminary data from the Institute of International Finance. While a lot of that has landed in Miami, linguistic and cultural affinities have brought some of it to Spain.

The flood of funds is changing the face of Madrid: driving property prices soaring and creating a sizzling hot high-end dining scene.

Luxury property prices jumped 6% last year, more than in most large European capitals, according to consultancy Knight Frank. They hit a record for a second consecutive month in April, real estate website Idealista shows.


Luxury boutiques line Salamanca’s 19th-century boulevards.

New restaurants are sprouting across Madrid’s fancy Salamanca neighborhood at a breathtaking pace, and are almost always full. Table reservations start as early as 8 p.m. — unheard of in a city where kitchens rarely came alive before 9 p.m., and where lunch is served mostly between 2 p.m. and 3:30 p.m. Locals are having to come to grips with other changes, like time allotments at tables, common perhaps in New York, but unusual in a country where long, lazy post-meal conversations are a cultural staple. The Spanish even have a word for it: “sobremesa” — which translates as “over the table.”

The new arrivals have brought “a change in lunch and dinner times in Spain, with many locals finishing lunch barely an hour before foreigners are ready for dinner,” said Gonzalo Torres, a Madrid-based food critic.

Salamanca’s wide, leafy 19th-century boulevards are lined with upscale restaurants, including the Michelin-starred Ramon Freixa Madrid and  La Tasqueria. The area has luxury boutiques to make the global rich feel at home.

A cottage industry of services has also emerged to cater to the needs of the affluent. Over the past two years, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA, Spain’s second-largest lender, has opened two offices in Madrid for ultra-rich individuals. BBVA happens to own the largest bank in Mexico, where Spanish rival Banco Santander SA also has a large presence. Both banks have extensive operations elsewhere in Latin America.

Brazilian chef Sandro Silva has opened several restaurants in Madrid, creating a culture of pricier dining that’s now widespread in the city’s upscale neighborhoods. The French group Robuchon, with its record Michelin stars, opened a restaurant in Madrid late last year.

The arrival of a Four Seasons hotel and the reopening of the Villa Magna, owned by RLH Properties, a Mexican firm founded by business executive Borja Escalada, have reinforced the luxury push. Also, Spanish business schools, such as IE and Iese, have become popular options for the children of wealthy Latin American families. Mexicans made up the second-largest cohort among non-Europeans at IE this year. 

“Madrid has become a clear destination for Latin Americans, a trend that has accelerated since the Covid pandemic in 2020,” said Victor Matarranz, head of wealth management at Banco Santander. “First, they come almost as tourists to look around, then they develop an appetite for real estate.” Now, they’re looking for business opportunities, he said.


Abya, one of the city’s most luxurious restaurants, owned by Mexican businessman Manuel Gonzalez.

Earlier waves brought wealthy exiles fleeing political turmoil at home — like Venezuelans escaping Huge Chavez’s policies around 2010. The rise now in Mexican investments, and to a lesser degree from other countries such as Peru, coincides with a shift to the left in governments across much of Latin America, from Andres Lopez Obrador in Mexico to Gabriel Boric in Chile and Gustavo Petro in Colombia.

Many rich Mexicans are on the prowl for investing opportunities, said Ximena Caraza, director of Casa de Mexico, a cultural and economic center that helps the country’s investors do business in Spain.

“Lots of Mexicans are coming to see what business they can do here,” she said.

Rich Mexicans keep a low profile, but occasionally they can’t avoid making a splash. Mexican businessman Manuel Gonzalez bought a coveted palazzo in central Madrid and this year refurbished it into one of the city’s most luxurious restaurants, called Abya.


Carlos Slim during the Sophia Awards of Excellence of the Queen Sofia Spanish Institute in New York in 2022.

Carlos Slim, Latin America’s wealthiest person, owns significant stakes in publicly-listed Spanish real estate firms, Metrovacesa SA and Realia SA. Carlos Fernandez Gonzalez, who made a fortune in the Mexican beer industry, is the second-largest shareholder in one of the biggest Spanish commercial real estate operators, Inmobiliaria Colonial, and has resided in Spain for several years.

“Clients started coming, seeing Madrid and then saying, ‘we could own a house here,’” said Humphrey White, who runs Knight Frank in Spain, adding that the city’s low crime is an added lure for the wealthy, who can walk around without security staff.

Mexicans, Argentinians, Peruvians and Colombians are among those looking for properties, real estate agents say. The investors benefit from a so-called golden visa program, which expedites residency permits for foreigners who spend at least €500,000 on real estate, as long as it is debt-free. Spain hasn’t joined the clamp-down on golden visas seen in several other European nations.

Many of the investors aren’t just buying homes for themselves. They also work on real estate projects — in Salamanca, but also increasingly in other fancy neighborhoods, like Chamberi.

“The local real estate scene was all very quiet, and it is now changing with the Mexicans,” said Javier Kindelan Williams, head of  valuation and advisory for continental Europe at CBRE, a consulting and research firm.

The city is starting to compete with the likes of Paris and Berlin for luxury, but with prices that “are a bargain,” he said. A million dollars can buy 106 square meters in the Spanish capital, compared with 43 in Paris and 70 in Berlin, according to Knight Frank.

The demand is shaking up high-end real estate. GBS, a boutique Spanish financial advisory, is having to vacate the premises it has occupied in Salamanca for about three decades because the landlord wants to convert the offices into luxury apartments. The firm has itself partnered with Mexican investor Nicolas Carrancedo’s group BeGrand on developing Salamanca’s Calle Padilla project.


Pricier dining is now widespread in the Madrid’s upscale neighborhoods.

The new arrivals are energizing Madrid’s economy. But they are also changing a way of life in the capital, one that was characterized by a workday that started at 10 a.m., lunch at 3:00 p.m., siestas and late dinners.

“It used to be a city where things closed for hours in the afternoon,” said Casa de Mexico’s Caraza. “That’s not the case anymore.”
“Everything can be taken from a man but one thing: the last of the human freedoms — to choose one’s attitude in any given set of circumstances, to choose one’s own way.”— Viktor E. Frankl
https://www.hks.harvard.edu/more/policycast/happiness-age-grievance-and-fear

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Re: Tema: PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Primavera 2023
« Respuesta #2545 en: Junio 03, 2023, 10:59:54 am »
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-03/a-new-real-estate-wave-of-pain-is-coming-after-148-billion-european-rout#xj4y7vzkg

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A New Wave of Real Estate Pain Is Coming After European Rout

Landlords trade at crisis level values as interest rates rise
Office values have fallen more than 30% in Paris and Berlin


Roiled by rising borrowing costs and falling valuations that wiped out $148 billion of shareholder value, European landlords are bracing for a new wave of pain.

Property companies have about $165 billion of bonds maturing through 2026, while banks are reducing their exposure to the industry and credit costs are at their highest since the financial crisis. That’s left some of the firms at risk of being downgraded to junk status, making it even more expensive for them to borrow.

The headwinds include a crash in office values from the City of London to Berlin, leaving property as the least popular industry among fund managers for the third straight month, according to a Bank of America Corp. survey. Bloated with debt, many landlords will have to turn to asset sales, dividend cuts and rights issues in an attempt to rightsize the firms for a more turbulent future.

“The maturity wall could be a catalyst for transactions to happen because if borrowers are not able to refinance, they will have to exit,” said Jackie Bowie, head of EMEA at Chatham Financial. “You’ll have more assets sold in the market, I suspect, at distressed levels.”

Debt Millstone

The poster child for the rout has been Swedish property firm Samhallsbyggnadsbolaget i Norden AB, which has plunged more than 90% since its all-time high.

Its debt pile of $8 billion, used to build up a portfolio of more than 2,000 properties, has turned into a millstone following the end of the cheap money era. The company’s efforts to shrink have attracted interest from the likes of Brookfield Asset Management, causing the share price to rally on Friday.

The landlord has already been downgraded to junk, leading it to abandon a planned rights issue, and the market is pricing in the prospect that others will follow. The majority of real estate bonds on the euro high-grade bond index were issued by companies that now have credit quality more typical of those with junk status, according to a quantitative model run by Bloomberg.

Unless they can shrink their debt piles or borrowing rates fall again, these so-called fallen angel candidates will probably have to pay higher rates for their credit when they eventually come to refinance.

‘Strong Incentive’

“There will be a very strong incentive for many of these issuers to get back to investment-grade. We’ve already seen them trying to defend that line in the sand as their business model is not naturally a high-yield one,” said Viktor Hjort, global head of credit strategy and desk analysts at BNP Paribas SA.

Maintaining the rating, however, may prove unaffordable for some, not least because landlords’ hybrid bonds have tanked on the secondary market.

Some money managers are losing patience, selling notes back to the real estate firms that issued them, including Aroundtown SA and Sweden’s Heimstaden Bostad AB. The attraction of the liability management for landlords is obvious: prices for high-grade euro-denominated notes have fallen by almost a fifth since the start of 2022.

“Large, and sudden moves in nominal rates create uncertainty and it’s important to maintain financial discipline to navigate such periods,” said Heimstaden AB Chief Investment Officer Christian Fladeland. “We consider this to be reflected in our strong balance sheet, hedging policy, and the balanced maturity profile of our debt.” Aroundtown and SBB did not reply to requests for comment.

Other firms will turn to rights issues or expensive alternative forms of debt to reduce their burden, eating into earnings over time.



That’s left corners of the equity market flashing red flags not seen since the financial crisis. Forward price-to-book multiples suggests these stocks are trading at the cheapest levels since 2008. The metric measures the value of a company’s shares against the value of its assets.

The peak-to-trough selloff since August 2021 is nearing 50%, or $148 billion, leaving the Stoxx 600 Real Estate Index at a record low relative to the benchmark European stocks index.

The wider turmoil cost British Land Plc its place in the FTSE 100 after more than two decades while the owner of the Canary Wharf financial district in London was downgraded deeper into junk. A spokesperson for British Land declined to comment. Canary Wharf Group did not respond to a call for comment.



It’s also left real estate markets almost frozen with buyers demanding higher yields to compensate for the risk of rising interest rates and tenants leaving. The price of prime office buildings in Paris, Berlin and Amsterdam dropped more than 30% in 12 months, according to broker Savills Plc.

“Sentiment is still pretty bad and that’s what’s reflected in this market pricing,” said Bowie at Chatham Financial. 

It’s part of a global trend that has seen the amount of property bonds and loans trading at distressed prices exceeds $190 billion. That contrasts with other industries, where it’s shrunk in recent months.

Further Falls

There may be worse to come. Commercial real estate values in Europe could fall by as much as 40% because of the extent to which debt markets have been upended, Citigroup Inc. analyst Aaron Guy wrote in a note earlier this month.

Refinancing Costs Remain Near Post-Financial Crisis Highs | Real estate firms will have to pay up to replace debt



In addition, he wrote, landlords may have to provide about 50% additional equity when they refinance an asset in order to satisfy metrics that banks and private credit funds lend against. That’s based on a refinancing rate of 6%.

We are “operating under the assumption that valuations still need to adjust downwards. This means that there is still more pain to come,” said Max Berger, credit portfolio manager at DWS Investment GmbH. “Some of these business models are no longer viable. Bond markets are quite aware of that.”

The uncertainty has left money managers wary.

“We are staying out of the sector,” said Lucas Maruri, a fund manager at MAPFRE Asset Management, which manages about €40 billion. “We estimate that there are still risks that prevent the good performance of the shares of real estate companies, REITs and European developers over the coming months.”
“Everything can be taken from a man but one thing: the last of the human freedoms — to choose one’s attitude in any given set of circumstances, to choose one’s own way.”— Viktor E. Frankl
https://www.hks.harvard.edu/more/policycast/happiness-age-grievance-and-fear

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Re: Tema: PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Primavera 2023
« Respuesta #2546 en: Junio 03, 2023, 11:06:11 am »
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/gazprom-send-403-mcm-gas-europe-via-ukraine-saturday-2023-06-03/

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Gazprom to send 40.3 mcm of gas to Europe via Ukraine on Saturday

MOSCOW, June 3 (Reuters) - Russia's Gazprom (GAZP.MM) will send 40.3 million cubic metres (mcm) of gas to Europe via Ukraine on Saturday, the company said, down from 40.6 mcm on Friday.
“Everything can be taken from a man but one thing: the last of the human freedoms — to choose one’s attitude in any given set of circumstances, to choose one’s own way.”— Viktor E. Frankl
https://www.hks.harvard.edu/more/policycast/happiness-age-grievance-and-fear

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Re: Tema: PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Primavera 2023
« Respuesta #2547 en: Junio 03, 2023, 11:18:18 am »
Lo que sería el concepto de "stakeholders".

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/california-new-york-pension-systems-vote-against-toyota-chairman-re-election-2023-06-02/

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California, New York pension funds vote against Toyota chairman

TOKYO, June 2 (Reuters) - Two of the largest U.S. public pension funds have voted against the re-election of Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T) Chairman Akio Toyoda, shareholder voting records showed, sharpening the focus on the automaker's annual meeting later this month.

The California Public Employees' Retirement System (CalPERS) and the Office of the New York City Comptroller also voted for a resolution urging Toyota to improve disclosure of its lobbying on climate change, according to postings by the funds.

(...)New York City Comptroller Brad Lander said in a statement the Toyota board was not adequately independent.

"A board that is genuinely independent of management and appropriately focused on maximizing long-term shareholder value, can strengthen and affirm Toyota's commitment to electric vehicles," he said.

The New York comptroller's office oversees a pension system with $243 billion in assets under management. Those funds held 6.7 million shares in Toyota Group companies, including Toyota Boshoku (3116.T) and Toyota Tsusho (8015.T) as of end March. It was not clear what share of that was Toyota Motor Corp.

The New York pension system has also urged both Ford (F.N) and General Motors (GM.N) to move rapidly toward electrification and to disclose more about their lobbying on vehicle standards.

Toyota has said its approach to rolling out a range of alternatives to gasoline-engine cars - including hybrids, plug-in hybrids, hydrogen and electric vehicles - is better overall for reducing carbon emissions and more practical than switching to EVs alone.

In April, the automaker sold 8,584 EVs worldwide, including its Lexus brand, accounting for more than 1% of its global sales in a single month for the first time. It seeks to sell 1.5 million EVs annually by 2026.
“Everything can be taken from a man but one thing: the last of the human freedoms — to choose one’s attitude in any given set of circumstances, to choose one’s own way.”— Viktor E. Frankl
https://www.hks.harvard.edu/more/policycast/happiness-age-grievance-and-fear

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Re: Tema: PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Primavera 2023
« Respuesta #2548 en: Junio 03, 2023, 11:23:58 am »
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Arizona Limits Construction Around Phoenix as Its Water Supply Dwindles
Posted by BeauHD on Friday June 02, 2023 @11:30PM from the supply-and-demand dept.

Longtime Slashdot reader MightyMartian shares a report from the New York Times:
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Arizona has determined that there is not enough groundwater for all of the housing construction that has already been approved in the Phoenix area, and will stop developers from building some new subdivisions (Source paywalled, alternative source), a sign of looming trouble in the West and other places where overuse, drought and climate change are straining water supplies. The decision by state officials very likely means the beginning of the end to the explosive development that has made the Phoenix area the fastest growing metropolitan region in the country. The state said it would not revoke building permits that have already been issued and is instead counting on new water conservation measures and alternative sources to produce the water necessary for housing developments that have already been approved.

Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix and its suburbs, gets more than half its water supply from groundwater. Most of the rest comes from rivers and aqueducts as well as recycled wastewater. In practical terms, groundwater is a finite resource; it can take thousands of years or longer to be replenished. The announcement of a groundwater shortage means Arizona would no longer give developers in some areas of Maricopa County new permits to construct homes that rely on wells for water.

Phoenix and nearby large cities, which must obtain separate permission from state officials for their development plans every 10 to 15 years, would also be denied approval for any homes that rely on groundwater beyond what the state has already authorized. The decision means cities and developers must look for alternative sources of water to support future development -- for example, by trying to buy access to river water from farmers or Native American tribes, many of whom are facing their own shortages. That rush to buy water is likely to rattle the real estate market in Arizona, making homes more expensive and threatening the relatively low housing costs that had made the region a magnet for people from across the country.
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Re: Tema: PPCC - Pisitófilos Creditófagos - Primavera 2023
« Respuesta #2549 en: Junio 03, 2023, 11:51:17 am »
Citar
Arizona Limits Construction Around Phoenix as Its Water Supply Dwindles
Posted by BeauHD on Friday June 02, 2023 @11:30PM from the supply-and-demand dept.

Longtime Slashdot reader MightyMartian shares a report from the New York Times:
Citar
Arizona has determined that there is not enough groundwater for all of the housing construction that has already been approved in the Phoenix area, and will stop developers from building some new subdivisions (Source paywalled, alternative source), a sign of looming trouble in the West and other places where overuse, drought and climate change are straining water supplies. The decision by state officials very likely means the beginning of the end to the explosive development that has made the Phoenix area the fastest growing metropolitan region in the country. The state said it would not revoke building permits that have already been issued and is instead counting on new water conservation measures and alternative sources to produce the water necessary for housing developments that have already been approved.

Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix and its suburbs, gets more than half its water supply from groundwater. Most of the rest comes from rivers and aqueducts as well as recycled wastewater. In practical terms, groundwater is a finite resource; it can take thousands of years or longer to be replenished. The announcement of a groundwater shortage means Arizona would no longer give developers in some areas of Maricopa County new permits to construct homes that rely on wells for water.

Phoenix and nearby large cities, which must obtain separate permission from state officials for their development plans every 10 to 15 years, would also be denied approval for any homes that rely on groundwater beyond what the state has already authorized. The decision means cities and developers must look for alternative sources of water to support future development -- for example, by trying to buy access to river water from farmers or Native American tribes, many of whom are facing their own shortages. That rush to buy water is likely to rattle the real estate market in Arizona, making homes more expensive and threatening the relatively low housing costs that had made the region a magnet for people from across the country.
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