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Biden Administration Paying Americans Thousands of Dollars to Upgrade Their HomesOn Aug. 16, President Joe Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act into law, directing billions of dollars to Americans looking to upgrade their homes, businesses and cars.One provision of the law allows Americans making less than $150,000 a year to claim a $7,500 tax credit for buying an electric car.The law also provides $9 billion in rebates to help people electrify their home appliances and make their houses more energy-efficient. It’s also allowing Americans to claim a tax credit for installing heat pumps in their homes.Altogether, the Inflation Reduction Act is showering $369 billion on clean energy programs and businesses throughout America.And clean energy investors already have something to celebrate. In the months since the act was signed into law, renewable energy companies like NextEra Energy Inc. have handily outperformed the S&P 500. The law is controversial, as is any law sweeping enough to decarbonize 40% of America’s economy over the next eight years as this law purports to do. But from an investing perspective, one thing is clear: History shows that clean energy catalysts on this level can give investors the chance to multiply their money many times over.(...) In 2023, the White House plans to assist 7.5 million Americans in putting solar panels on their rooftops — and that could be a major opening for startups like Qnetic, a startup creating innovative power storage solutions, and other startups in the space that helps its customers transition to the electric grid painlessly and seamlessly.As Bloomberg has pointed out, the global cost to decarbonize power grids could amount to more than $28 trillion. That’s a big deal for companies looking to bring consumers toward an all-electric life.
Is housing about to get more affordable after paused Fed rate hikes?(...) Will the Fed raise rates again? Fed chairman Jerome Powell spoke after the Fed meeting last week about the disproportionate impact housing costs are imposing on inflation, telling reporters that it’s important that rental costs continue to decrease. “We do need to see rents bottom out here, or at least stay quite low in terms of their increases,” Powell told reporters. “We’re watching that situation carefully,” he said. “I do think we will see rents and housing prices filtering into housing services inflation.” Powell said the committee’s decision to hold rates would allow more time to evaluate the effect of recent monetary policies but he indicated more interest rate increases could be on the way if inflation remains elevated. “Looking ahead, nearly all committee participants view it as likely that some further rate increases will be appropriate this year to bring inflation down to 2 percent over time,” he said.
[El concepto «cáncer de España» es orteguiano. «La alpargata». Es lo que está detrás de los Huerta de Soto, los 'The Pine's', incluso de los Rojas-Estapé, del Opus Dei.
A Bear of Very Little Brain: bears like us have been wrong H1’23 because…Goldilocks trumped Recession: neither Q1 EPS/H2 GDP recession happened; nominal GDP remained super-charged by fiscal stimulus/war, labor market impervious to monetary policy in post-pandemic world (interesting comparison with 1920s after Spanish flu – Chart 8); bonds & growth stocks (both eviscerated by CPI 2% to 9% last year), have traded 9% to 3-4% this year (Chart 11);No Credit Crunch: March SVB/regional bank crisis threatened credit crunch but was deftly averted by Fed & US Treasury emergency liquidity program, there was no QT, no liquidity drain, quite the opposite;AI Bull: unanticipated event in H1 was not SVB but rather AI, indeed SVB like LTCM back in 1998 caused Fed easing and liquidity routed into the new secular growth theme of AI (then internet); Magnificent 7 (Chart 15) drove SPX from 3.8k to 4.2k, and breakout + new bull market…investors forced to play catch-up as hard landing risks evaporate.
Conviction: we see max SPX 100-150 points upside vs 300 points downside between now & Labor Day; we are not convinced we at start of brand, new shiny bull market…still feels more like combo of 2000 or 2008, big rally before big collapse. But until…Fed reintroduces fear via communication terminal rate going to 6% to crack embedded inflation (5% core CPI),US Treasury yields >4%, real rates to 2% signal financial conditions tightening,US unemployment rate >4% = signaling recession……credit spreads can remain low, equities elevated, and investors likely to chase via rotate from momentum to contrarian plays, from deflation to inflation assets, from DM to EM stocks, from no landing plays to hard landing plays…No landing plays…limited trading upside…Magnificent 7, SOX (Chart 7 – already discounting big recovery), Europe luxury, VIX, homebuilders, some industrials,Hard landing…higher trading upside: MOVE, REITs, CRE, banks, small cap, oil, China, EM stocks.
Powell to face Capitol Hill questions on economy and interest rate plansPowell will kick off his two-day hearings by testifying in front of the House Financial Services CommitteeFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell begins two days of hearings before Congress on Wednesday.Powell's appearance comes after last week's policy meeting in which the Fed paused its rate hike run for the first time in 11 meetings.The 18 members of its policy committee predicted two more interest rate hikes this year – one more than analysts had expected – to fight inflation, which they now think will be higher next year than previously anticipated.Powell's testimony will begin with the House Financial Services Committee.The major question lawmakers will want to know will be how far and how fast will the Fed raise its key interest rate from here?After last week's meeting, Powell explicitly said no decisions had been made about whether to raise the Fed's benchmark rate at its next meeting in late July. However, based on economist and policymakers' forecasts, a rate hike next month is all but assured.The Fed's plan to keep rates unchanged for now allows additional time to further assess the impact that the rate hikes have had on the economy before deciding on its next moves.It has raised its benchmark rate by a substantial five percentage points in barely more than a year – the fastest pace of rate hikes in four decades."Given how far we have come, it may make sense for rates to move higher but at a more moderate pace," Powell said. "It’s just the idea that we’re trying to get this right."The interest hikes have impacted consumers in the form of higher home and auto loans, credit cards and business borrowing. The goal has been to cool inflation by slowing spending and hiring."There is a path to getting inflation back down to 2% without having to see the kind of sharp downturn and large losses of employment that we’ve seen in so many past instances," the Fed chair said. "It’s possible."Yet both Republicans and Democrats in the House and Senate may express misgivings about whether the Fed can pull it off.Powell may also face questions concerning the stability of the banking system in the aftermath of three bank failures since March.