PPCC: Pisitófilos Creditófagos. Verano 2023

[Derby]

https://twitter.com/Redfin/status/1704180097060680066

@Redfin Gone are the days of affluent homebuyers snatching up second properties with record-low mortgage rates.

August marks the 14th-straight month that second-home demand has hovered at least 30% below pre-pandemic levels 👉 http://bit.ly/3roQFZe #mortgagerates

https://www.redfin.com/news/vacation-home-demand-drops-august-2023/

[asustadísimos]

[Qué cerca del final estamos, señoras, señores.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-oGdWn0Qz1s ]

[Derby]

https://www.ft.com/content/600bcde1-f335-4b37-af93-52fe54bddf4a

Federal Reserve holds rates but officials predict more tightening this year

Policymakers project higher economic growth, lower inflation and one more quarter-point rise

[Cadavre Exquis]

Thought the U.S. Office Market Was Bad? Try China
World’s No. 2 economy has a huge oversupply of unneeded office space, in latest sign of country’s weak growth

By Stella Yifan Xie | Photographs by Gilles Sabrie for The Wall Street Journal | 2023.09.20

Nearly 24% of office-tower space in 18 major Chinese cities, including Beijing, was unoccupied as of June.

HONG KONG—The office market in the U.S. is dismal. In some ways, it is even worse in China.

With the country’s economy facing its worst slowdown in years, huge amounts of office space are sitting empty in once-booming cities like Shenzhen and Wuhan, while rents are falling.

Nearly 24% of the office-tower space in 18 major Chinese cities was unoccupied as of June, according to CBRE, the real-estate services firm. That is worse than the U.S., where office vacancy rates hit a 30-year-high of 18.2% in June.

Unlike the U.S., however, China’s office market isn’t suffering from a significant shift toward hybrid work patterns, which have reduced Western companies’ need for space.

China is facing a more basic real-estate problem: Developers simply built too much supply, and now the economy is too weak to absorb it.

China’s economy barely grew in the most recent quarter on a quarterly basis, and youth unemployment hit a record high in July. Regulatory crackdowns on the private sector, including consumer internet companies such as Alibaba Group and Tencent Holdings , and weak investment by private firms have depressed demand for new leasing.

A wave of new office towers will hit the market this year, adding to the market gloom. 

“We are closer to the bottom but we aren’t seeing it just yet,” said Henry Chin, head of research for Asia Pacific at CBRE.

The Galaxy Soho complex in Beijing, where the office vacancy rate was 18% in the second quarter.  Photo: Bloomberg News

China’s office and residential real-estate markets accounted for 20% or more of gross domestic product in recent years.

The trouble echoes problems in China’s residential real-estate industry, which is mired in a multiyear downturn after developers built too many apartments, and the government tightened credit to cool what many experts believed was an overheated market. Numerous property developers defaulted on their international debt.

Analysts are generally less worried about fallout from China’s office market, which is smaller than the residential real-estate industry, though together they accounted for 20% or more of gross domestic product in China in recent years.

Most office assets are owned by domestic investors such as real-estate developers, insurance firms and technology giants like Tencent, but some big foreign firms are in China’s commercial property market, too, including BlackRock and U.S. developer Tishman Speyer.

Many of the domestic owners have the financial wherewithal to absorb some losses on office assets, analysts say. Still, high office vacancies are indicative of a misfiring economy, and some investors are getting squeezed.

Soho China, one of China’s largest commercial real-estate developers, reported a 93% drop in net profit to around $1.9 million in the first half of the year, and said rents and occupancy rates will be “under continuous pressure” as more projects enter the market in the next three years.

Many smaller businesses, reeling from years of pandemic curbs, have given up office space.

Peak Solution, a German company that provides automobile testing software in China, downsized its Shanghai office during the pandemic and moved to a new building where rent was 30% cheaper to save costs, said general manager Zach Xu.

He estimated that about half the space on the company’s floor at its previous office building was empty when he moved out in late 2021 and that the vacancy rate had probably risen since then.

The company is now trying to find new customers, Xu said, but it is hard in China’s current economy. “Our goal is to survive this year,” he said.

In Wuhan, 63,000 square meters of new Grade A office space coming online helped push the vacancy rate at Optics Valley, a part of the central city popular with technology companies, to a historical high of over 30% in June, according to data from Savills, a real-estate service provider.

In Shenzhen, another tech hub in southern China that is home to Tencent as well as hardware giant Huawei Technologies, more than a quarter of office space was empty as of June, nearing the previous high in 2020 during the initial spread of Covid-19, Savills data shows.

Tencent, which has been renting 15 floors in a Shenzhen office building since 2011, terminated the lease three years ahead of schedule, said the lessor, Netac Technology, in a filing this January. The early end of the contract was due to “intensifying downward pressure on the economy” and slowing consumption growth, Netac said.

A Tencent spokeswoman said in January that the lease termination was a “normal adjustment” of the company’s offices.

Departing tech firms helped push up Beijing’s office vacancy rate to 18% in the second quarter, nearly tripling from 2018 levels, according to Savills.

As of June, the average national monthly rental value in China dropped nearly 7% compared with 2019, according to data from CBRE.

A wave of new office towers will come on to the market this year.

Saludos.

[BENDITALIQUIDEZ]

El yen en mínimos de 33 años con el dólar.

El Nikkei en máximos de 33 años.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/bojs-hawkish-tilt-suggests-end-super-easy-policy-approaching-2023-09-11/

Kuroda dejó el cargo en abril, por si os apetece afinar el timing.

https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haruhiko_Kuroda

Y antes de la predicción del tiempo, en noticias locales:

https://www.lne.es/gijon/2023/09/20/asesinan-cuchilladas-hombre-calle-sagrado-92331902.html

La víctima, de iniciales F. J. R. T. y de 55 años, es el dueño de inmobiliaria Golder Star que se encuentra en esa calle. Los primeros indicios apuntan a que el móvil del crimen es económico, y que la víctima debía dinero al agresor.

Y ahora sí, la predicción del tiempo, se prevén precipitaciones, caerán ladrillos de punta en todo occidente, el frente viene por el este y por el oeste con lluvias débiles ya en EEUU y precipitaciones más fuertes en China, se aconseja usar paraguas reforzado.

[pollo]

No puedo dejar de enviar esto, donde un periódico nos vende una moto de que alquilar es tirar el dinero y que a los tipos actuales y ahorrando un huevo sale a cuenta hipotecarse (coño, y si doy el 90% de entrada la hipoteca me sale por mucho menos aún).

https://old.meneame.net/story/alquilar-piso-ya-no-opcion-rentable-ninguna-ccaa-lleva-43-frente/standard

Os paso el enlace a una fuente indirecta porque lo interesante son los comentarios que se pueden ver en esta.
La gente está hasta los cojones, y por supuesto han salido los rentistas a la palestra a defenderse sin argumentos posibles aparte de las falacias habituales.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20230921/page/3/textview

Alquiler Seguro profesionaliza el sector

https://www.eleconomista.es/vivienda-inmobiliario/noticias/12454068/09/23/alquiler-seguro-revoluciona-el-mercado-adelantara-la-renta-hasta-tres-anos-a-los-propietarios-de-pisos.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20230921/page/43/textview

La Fed mantiene su previsión de una última subida de tipos este año

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12453551/09/23/la-inversion-extranjera-en-espana-se-retrae-un-26-en-el-primer-semestre-del-ano-.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/vivienda-inmobiliario/noticias/12452538/09/23/la-compraventa-de-viviendas-acelera-su-caida-en-julio-al-105-y-firma-su-menor-cifra-en-este-mes-desde-2020.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/mercados-cotizaciones/noticias/12453785/09/23/de-cos-tambien-ve-techo-en-los-tipos-de-interes-pero-avisa-de-la-tozudez-del-genio-de-la-inflacion-.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/12452617/09/23/el-gobierno-pincha-con-el-impuesto-a-los-ricos-y-recauda-un-60-menos-623-millones.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/mercados-cotizaciones/noticias/12443876/09/23/los-depositos-calientes-abren-un-frente-inesperado-para-una-nueva-crisis-bancaria-en-eeuu.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.eleconomista.es/opinion/noticias/12453716/09/23/la-industria-espanola-pendiente-del-efecto-mariposa-en-china.html

Saludos.

[Cadavre Exquis]

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20230921/page/18/textview

El 50% de los jóvenes cree que su formación no se ajusta al mercado laboral

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20230921/page/20/textview

En la próxima década sólo España necesitará unos 200.000 ingenieros

https://www.pressreader.com/spain/el-economista/20230921/page/21/textview

Luis Martínez-Abarca Director del Área de Formación Profesional de CEU: “La FP es una oportunidad para una inserción laboral rápida y de calidad”

Saludos.